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The prediction of future weather patterns has recently become a very important research area due to the ongoing climate change process which causes extreme weather events and rapidly changing weather patterns. In this paper we compare the prediction accuracy of eight data-driven methods, which had been developed for time series prediction, on future weather patterns in central Croatia. The evaluated methods are Seasonal naïve, AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Error-Trend-Seasonality (ETS), Exponential smoothing state space model with Box-Cox transformation (TBATS), Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR), Neural Network AutoRegression (NNAR), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). In our experimental evaluation, we use a historical data from 1961 to 2017 that contains temperature, air pressure and precipitation values for eight weather stations in central Croatia, and indices from two atmospheric oscillations, namely North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). The results of our evaluation show that SVR is the best method, and that DHR and NNAR methods are also better than the other evaluated methods, as far as the accuracy of prediction is concerned. Among DHR and NNAR methods, DHR method is better for the prediction of temperature and air pressure, while NNAR method is better for the prediction of precipitation. Additionally, our evaluation shows that SVR, DHR and NNAR methods achieve a better prediction accuracy when oscillation indices are included as additional predictors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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General awareness and overall interest regarding hailstorms and hail properties in Europe have increased significantly in the last several decades and have resulted in numerous local, national, and even Europe‐wide studies on hail and hail properties. To contribute to this field, we determined the hail climatology in the northeastern (NE) Adriatic region and analyzed its spatial and temporal patterns and performed an objectively derived weather type analysis of ERA5 daily mean data and instability indices. We studied the NE Adriatic region due to its focus on agricultural activities and on quality wine production. Our results are based on approximately 60 years of high spatial resolution measurements collected from 27 stations across complex terrain. The results show (i) high levels of spatial variability, (ii) significant annual variations, and (iii) hail throughout the whole year that (iv) intensifies in summer months. Furthermore, redistribution of hail among seasons (in particular, from summer to spring) was detected. Most significant changes were visible in the June–October period, with a negative trend of −0.06 hail days/year, and the period from November to March exhibited a positive trend of 0.13 hail cases/year. We found that deep cyclonic systems in front of and above our domain were most responsible for hail generation, often supported by southwesterly winds. Additionally, the vast majority of observed hail events occurred in unstable and sheared environments. Key Points: NE Adriatic region has throughout the year hail activityHigher levels of hail activity along the western coast were revealed for the morning periodsRedistribution of hail from summer toward spring was found in NE Adriatic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the impact of horizontal resolution, convection parameterization and lateral boundary conditions on the ability of a regional climate model ‐ RegCM4 to simulate the observed temperature and precipitation climatology over Croatia and surrounding regions. An ensemble of RegCM4 simulations over Europe has been generated including two resolutions (50 and 12.5 km), two different deep convection schemes and different boundary conditions (a reanalysis and four global climate models). Using two observational data sets (with and without the undercatch correction) shows that the magnitude of RegCM4 errors in winter precipitation also depends on observational uncertainty. While the mean precipitation amounts in high‐resolution simulations are generally overestimated in the cold part of the year, low‐resolution RegCM4 simulations are comparable to most of other EURO‐CORDEX models. When forced by ERA‐Interim, RegCM4 performs relatively poorly in reproducing temporal correlations against observations, but performs well in terms of spatial correlation. Whereas precipitation amounts from high‐resolution simulations need further improvements, the RegCM4 skill in simulating near‐surface temperature is high and well suited for impact studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data from population-based laboratory surveillance were used to examine the epidemiological pattern of campylobacteriosis in a sentinel site, Split-Dalmatia County (SDC),Croatia, from 2007 to 2012, and to evaluate the association between disease incidence and demographic, geographical, climatic, agricultural, and microbiological factors. A total of 2658 laboratory-confirmed Campylobacter infections were recorded. Overall mean incidence was 96/100,000, ranging from 61/100,000 in rural to 131/100,000 in urban areas; rates were highest in the age group 0-4 years. Overall mean and age- and sex-specific incidences were significantly higher in urban versus rural areas (p < 0.01). The number of infections peaked in early summer, and was correlated with higher average monthly temperature (r = 0.58) and lower humidity (r = − 0.27), but not with precipitation. Incidence was not associated with agricultural activities. A distinct campylobacteriosis pattern with consistently higher urban versus rural incidence was observed, which may help formulate further preventive measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is scarce information about European folk knowledge of wild invertebrate fauna. We have documented such folk knowledge in three regions, in Romania, Slovakia and Croatia. We provide a list of folk taxa, and discuss folk biological classification and nomenclature, salient features, uses, related proverbs and sayings, and conservation. Methods: We collected data among Hungarian-speaking people practising small-scale, traditional agriculture. We studied "all" invertebrate species (species groups) potentially occurring in the vicinity of the settlements. We used photos, held semi-structured interviews, and conducted picture sorting. Results: We documented 208 invertebrate folk taxa. Many species were known which have, to our knowledge, no economic significance. 36 % of the species were known to at least half of the informants. Knowledge reliability was high, although informants were sometimes prone to exaggeration. 93 % of folk taxa had their own individual names, and 90 % of the taxa were embedded in the folk taxonomy. Twenty four species were of direct use to humans (4 medicinal, 5 consumed, 11 as bait, 2 as playthings). Completely new was the discovery that the honey stomachs of black-coloured carpenter bees (Xylocopa violacea, X. valga) were consumed. 30 taxa were associated with a proverb or used for weather forecasting, or predicting harvests. Conscious ideas about conserving invertebrates only occurred with a few taxa, but informants would generally refrain from harming firebugs (Pyrrhocoris apterus), field crickets (Gryllus campestris) and most butterflies. We did not find any mythical creatures among invertebrate folk taxa. Almost every invertebrate species was regarded as basically harmful. Where possible, they were destroyed or at least regarded as worth eradicating. However, we could find no evidence to suggest any invertebrate species had suffered population loss as a result of conscious destruction. Sometimes knowledge pertaining to the taxa could have more general relevance, and be regarded as folk wisdom concerning the functioning of nature as a whole. Conclusions: The high number of known invertebrate folk taxa suggests that it would be worth conducting further investigations in other areas of Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation data from the period 1961-2010 and from a dense rain-gauge network over Croatia is analysed for spatial characteristics of trends in precipitation amounts and precipitation indices. Besides large spatial variability, the area is characterized by large temporal (seasonal) variability. Thus, analysis is performed on annual and seasonal scales over seven predefined subregions. Ten precipitation indices are selected to assess the intensity and frequency of extreme events as well as their contribution to annual and seasonal precipitation changes. The results reveal that the changes in annual and seasonal amounts are predominantly weak. A significant trend is detected only for annual amounts (negative) in the mountainous region and for summer (negative) in the mountainous littoral, mountainous region and central hinterland. A significant positive trend for autumn appears in eastern mainland. Negative trends in summer are associated with a decrease in frequency of moderate wet days, in maximal 1- and 5-day precipitation and in an increase in light precipitation. A negative annual trend is mainly caused by a decrease in frequency of very wet days and their contribution to the total precipitation. A positive autumn trend is associated with more very wet days and an increase of their contribution to the total precipitation as well as an increase in maximal 1- and 5-day precipitation. This study complements the existing analysis of five Croatian secular data series of extreme precipitation indices by involving the whole precipitation dataset since the mid-twentieth century and fills the gap present in the trend assessment of precipitation trends in Mediterranean and Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Republic of Croatia is renowned for its natural beauty and mild Mediterranean climate. The consequences are significant tourism revenues each year which is why the tourism is considered as the most important activity. However, tourism is a specific activity that occurs seasonally (at certain time of the year). It would therefore be interesting to analyze how much can tourism revenues distributed throughout the entire financial year contribute to financial result presented in financial statements, that is, to analyze whether their impact on profitability ratios is above average. The main aim of this research is to compare financial performance of listed companies which belong to accommodation and food service activities on one side and financial performance of companies from all other activities on another side. Intention of the research is to determine the financial potential of tourism listed companies. Sample consists of non-financial companies in Republic of Croatia listed on Zagreb Stock Exchange (ZSE) which are divided into two subsamples. First subsample consists of companies which belong to accommodation and food service activities and second subsample comprises companies from other activities. Activities are classified according to National Classification of Activities. Statistical analysis will be applied on financial data collected from financial statements publicly available on ZSE official website. Sample includes non-financial companies and excludes banks, insurance companies and other financial companies due to their particularities in comparison with non-financial companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism is one of the most important economic sectors in Croatia. The Adriatic coast is a popular travel destination for tourists, especially during the summer months. During their activities, tourists are affected by atmospheric conditions and therefore by weather and climate. Therefore, it is important to have reliable information about thermal conditions as well as their impacts on human beings. Here, the climate tourism potential of Croatia is presented and quantified on the basis of three selected stations in different climatic regions. The physiologically equivalent temperature is used for analysis as well as other climatic parameters relevant for tourism and recreation. The results already point to hot conditions for outdoor activities in summer during afternoons, especially along the coast but also for continental regions, resulting in a reduction of the climate tourism potential. In the future, this trend looks set to increase, possibly leading to a changing tourism sector in Croatia requiring adaptation and new strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In climatology, one of the most important pieces of information about the climate of a place or a region is information about the Climatological Normals (CLINO)—the average values of meteorological elements for a 30-year period. This kind of information usually comes in tables and is available for different observation sites from national meteorological services or from World Meteorological Organisation publications. The key issue, then, becomes how to interpolate these values over the entire area of interest to get reliable and accurate estimates (maps) of climatic elements. Here, the regression kriging framework has been applied for mapping of 20 climatological parameters for the 1961–1990 period for the 56,594 km of Croatian territory, with a resolution of 1 km. In total, 152 main and climatological and 567 precipitation-measuring stations have been used in the analysis. Extensive pre-processing of metadata on station co-ordinates has been done, as well as completion of missing monthly averages. The final results are 20 climatological maps available in high resolution together with error maps and accuracy assessment measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]