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Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to be vital in transitioning to a low-carbon energy system. However, integrating EVs into the power grid poses significant challenges for grid operators and energy suppliers, especially regarding the uncertainty and variability of EV charging demand. Accurate forecasting of EV charging demand is essential for optimal power system integration, yet previous studies have often only considered point predictions that are inadequate for risk assessment. Therefore, this paper compares different probabilistic forecasting models for the short-term prediction of EV charging demand at various aggregation levels, using a large and novel dataset of over 350,000 charging processes at more than 500 locations across Germany. The performance of both machine learning and deep learning methods is evaluated against a naïve benchmark model, and the impact of data availability on the forecasting models is investigated. Further, the paper examines the effects of forecast accuracy on energy procurement, which has so far received minor attention in the literature. The results show that machine learning methods such as Ada Boosting and Random Forest yield robust results with a normalized root mean square error of 0.42 and 0.41 and a mean absolute scaled error of 0.36 and 0.34 at the highest aggregation level. Furthermore, the results show the influence of different site compositions on the forecast quality and how many charging points are likely to yield a robust forecast. Energy and fleet managers can use the described method to reliably predict the required energy quantities for fleets of sufficient size and procure them at low risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar power integration has shown a significant growth in many power systems during the last decade. The intermittent nature of solar irradiance tends to vary the amount of solar power in the system and an accurate solar power forecasting method can be used to tackle this in power system planning and operation. In this paper, authors have proposed a generalized ensemble model integrating deep learning techniques to generate accurate solar power forecasts for 21 solar photovoltaic facilities located in Germany. Most important weather parameters for solar power generation are selected through a feature selection process. In addition, a weather classification approach is used to cluster the dataset and for each cluster, a separate ensemble algorithm is assigned. Finally, considering the prediction errors in each cluster, a novel ensemble model is developed. The proposed models are evaluated using root mean square error and results are compared with single machine learning techniques and available forecasting models in the literature. Compared to deep belief network, support vector regression and random forest regression models, the proposed ensemble model with cloud classification reduces RMSE error by 10.49%, 7.78%, and 7.95% respectively. Results show that the weather classification approach reduces the forecasting error by a considerable margin and the proposed ensemble model provides a better forecasting accuracy than single machine learning methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimation of the electrical power output and energy yield of high concentration photovoltaic (HCPV) modules is a hard task because of the many parameters involved. In this work, we propose the usage of an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) method to estimate the maximum power output of a FLATCON® CPV-module manufactured by Fraunhofer ISE. The advantage of the ANN is that it is a part of the Artificial Intelligence Deep Learning domain, which makes it easy to model complex systems. A detailed knowledge about the underlying module technology is not necessary. In this work, various meteorological parameters are tested as inputs of the ANN including spectral matching ratios for considering the spectral variation of the solar irradiance to evaluate the maximum power output of the HCPV module under study. Eleven scenarios considering different combinations of input parameters have been investigated. It is demonstrated that the ANN gives excellent results and allows for an accurate prediction of the HCPV module's instantaneous power output with only a few amount of data used on training the ANN. The model has been tested using the measured data set of a FLATCON® CPV-module located on the rooftop of the Fraunhofer ISE in Freiburg, Germany. The module has been electrically characterized outdoors in the period from April 2013 to April 2014. The accuracy of the proposed ANN approach was analyzed using this measurement data in combination with error metrics. It was found that the best agreement between the measured and the predicted maximum power output was achieved when using direct normal irradiance, wind speed, ambient temperature and spectral matching ratios as input. The normalized root mean square error for the maximum power output over one year is found to be between 2.2 and 4.6%. The deviation of the modelled energy yield to the measured one is in the range of 0.2–2.2%. • We use ANN method to predict the maximum power output of a FLATCON® CPV-module. • The accuracy of model used was validated through measurements and metrics errors. • The spectral effect of DNI through the use of SMRs has improved the model performance. • The knowledge of module technology is not necessary for performance prediction. • Only small amount of data are needed for performance prediction using this approach. Short Abstract: This paper uses the artificial Neural Networks model to estimate the electrical power and the energy yield of high concentration photovoltaic modules. The model has been verified using a whole year measurement data of power output of FLATCON CPV Module manufactured by Fraunhofer ISE, Germany. A best agreement between the measured and computed energy output was found trough the analysis of eleven scenarios where different input parameters were combined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monkeypox is a double-stranded DNA virus with an envelope and is a member of the Poxviridae family's Orthopoxvirus genus. This virus can transmit from human to human through direct contact with respiratory secretions, infected animals and humans, or contaminated objects and causing mutations in the human body. In May 2022, several monkeypox affected cases were found in many countries. Because of its transmitting characteristics, on July 23, 2022, a nationwide public health emergency was proclaimed by WHO due to the monkeypox virus. This study analyzed the gene mutation rate that is collected from the most recent NCBI monkeypox dataset. The collected data is prepared to independently identify the nucleotide and codon mutation. Additionally, depending on the size and availability of the gene dataset, the computed mutation rate is split into three categories: Canada, Germany, and the rest of the world. In this study, the genome mutation rate of the monkeypox virus is predicted using a deep learning-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model and compared with Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model. The LSTM model shows "Root Mean Square Error" (RMSE) values of 0.09 and 0.08 for testing and training, respectively. Using this time series analysis method, the prospective mutation rate of the 50th patient has been predicted. Note that this is a new report on the monkeypox gene mutation. It is found that the nucleotide mutation rates are decreasing, and the balance between bi-directional rates are maintained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper explores probabilistic extensions to Deep Learning algorithms and their application on energy time series forecasting. • The methods tested are concrete Dropouts, deep Ensembles, bayesian neural Networks, deep gaussian Processes, and functional neural processes. • The methods are evaluated in terms of calibration, sharpness, and how well they indicate a lack of knowledge (Epistemic Uncertainty). • Good epistemic uncertainty estimates were given using functional neural Processes, deep Ensembles, and deep gaussian processes methods, while concrete dropouts and bayesian neural networks needed tunning for better performance. • The application of the methods was feasible for energy time series forecasting, and they produced good estimates of their confidence in a forecast. Deep Learning methods are widely successful and continue to be applied in new fields, including forecasting for energy time series. However, they lack an indication of their confidence in predictions, which helps evaluate, interpret, and improve the forecasting. This paper explores probabilistic extensions to Deep Learning algorithms and their application on energy time series forecasting. The methods tested are Concrete Dropouts, Deep Ensembles, Bayesian Neural Networks, Deep Gaussian Processes, and Functional Neural Processes. For evaluation, two load forecasting scenarios are considered: 1-hour-ahead and 24-hour-ahead load forecasting. The methods are evaluated in terms of calibration, sharpness, and how well they indicate a lack of knowledge (Epistemic Uncertainty). As a reference, simple Neural Network and Quantile Regression models are used. Also, the ARIMA model and Persistence model are implemented to compare the results. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) are computed to measure the error performance. Based on endogenous load time series in Germany, the results showed that Concrete Dropout, Deep Ensembles, and Bayesian Neural Networks performed similarly well and better than the reference methods. They also indicated that the simpler Concrete Dropout and Deep Ensembles have an advantage in both speed and convergence time. Good Epistemic Uncertainty estimates were given using Functional Neural Processes, Deep Ensembles, and Deep Gaussian Processes methods, while Concrete dropouts and Bayesian Neural Networks needed tunning for better performance. The application of the methods was feasible for energy time series forecasting, and they produced good estimates of their confidence in a forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]