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Purpose - This editorial aims to summarize the outcome of the Special Issue exploration on the theme "Is Africa the land of the future?". Design/methodology/approach - The paper contextualises and synthesizes the set of Africa-themed foresight papers included in the journal issue. Findings - The exploration concludes that Africa faces a range of internal and external opportunities and challenges. These are historical, geopolitical, economic, demographic, psychological, and intellectual. Key drivers and analyses identified by seven authors are briefly presented. Research limitations/implications - The restricted number of papers that could be included in the single issue required a narrow selection from a large set of good papers and subject coverage. The issue and editorial therefore only address a few of the key drivers, in addition to some broad, foundational issues. Practical implications - Neither mere optimism nor pessimism will determine Africa's ultimate trajectory. Concerted ownership, foresight and collective action by Africa's leaders and followers are the key to positive futures for the continent. Originality/value - The Special Issue is a unique contemporary African foresight contribution, which aims to provide a deeper understanding of the emerging challenges and opportunities for the continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine spatial and national inequality in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using comparable Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data. Using living standard measures to calculate asset indices, we find that SSA has considerable within-country spatial and national contemporary asset inequalities, with large cross-country variations. We also use data from 27 SSA countries with comparable data from 1995 to 2018 to compare inequalities in access to basic services. In most countries, regional and national inequities in access to basic services have decreased over time. Our findings show that regional inequality is a significant component of national inequality, which has policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the association between changes in mother's relative educational status and changes in early childhood nutrition focusing on the case of Malawi and the sizable improvements in early childhood height-for-age z scores (HAZ) that occurred between 2000 and 2015. Using Demographic Health Survey data, the paper shows that there were changes in the composition of mothers with higher relative educational status in the population, and also changes in returns to mother's higher relative educational status between 2000 and 2015. A Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition suggests that improved returns to mother's higher relative educational status were associated with playing an important role in improvements in early childhood HAZ between 2000 and 2015, although compositional changes in mothers with higher relative education appear to be less important. Supplementary descriptive analyses suggest these results might have to do with changes in selection into non-hypergamous unions over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of early childhood development has been on the radar of social scientists for decades, yet its connection to global development potential is relatively new. In May 2018, the World Health Organization (WHO) outlined a Nurturing Care Framework (NCF) to improve childhood development, claiming that one of the best ways a country can improve prosperity, economic growth, equitable opportunities, and reduce social inequalities is simple: invest in early childhood development. The WHO components of the NCF include: (1) good health, (2) adequate nutrition, (3) responsive caregiving, (4) opportunities for early learning, and (5) security and safety. Many of the existing discussions on improved child development focus on one avenue to improve child development and fail to compare various possible avenues to determine which is most critical. This paper utilizes Demographic and Health Survey data and WomanStats data from 7 African countries to determine the most influential factor to improve early childhood development for 36–59-month-old children, among those listed in the NCF. Measures of child development include: understanding words and numbers, ability to follow instruction, independence, playing with others, and distractibility. Though all five components of the NCF are necessary, understanding the most influential will streamline efforts moving forward. Results suggest that early learning opportunities and security and safety are most crucial to early childhood development, providing a clear path forward for governments, aid organizations, and households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: We sought to examine the association between livelihood security and adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ARVs) in low- and middle-income countries (LIMC). Methods: Performing a systematic review, we searched, independently and in duplicate, 7 electronic databases and 2 conference websites for quantitative surveys that examined the association between indicators of livelihood security and adherence to ARVs in LIMC between 2000-2010. Criteria for relevance were applied to complete papers (quantitative study with estimates of associations) and quality assessment was conducted on those deemed relevant. We performed three regressions to measure the association between each type of livelihood and adherence. Results: Twenty original studies and 6 conference abstracts were included, the majority from Africa (n = 16). Seventeen studies and 3 conference abstracts were cross-sectional and 3 studies and 3 abstracts were prospective clinical cohort studies, with considerable variation in quality for studies of each design type. Among the diverse populations represented, we observed considerable variation in associations between measurements of livelihood indicators and increasingly accepted adherence measures, irrespective of study design or quality. A financial capital indicator, financial constraints/payment for ARV medication, was more commonly associated with non-adherence (3/5 studies). A human capital indicator, educational level, was most commonly associated with adherence (11/20 studies). Discussion: Additional better quality research examining livelihood security is required to inform provision of optimal supports for adherence and mitigation of the impacts of HIV/AIDS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Diarrheal diseases substantially affect public health impact in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), particularly in Africa, where previous studies have indicated a lack of comprehensive data. With a growing number of primary studies on enteric infections in Africa, this study aimed to estimate the incidence and mortality of diarrheal pathogens across all ages in Africa in the year 2020. We also explored different methodological assumptions to allow comparison with other approaches. Methods: Through a systematic review and meta-analysis of data from African LMICs, we estimated the etiology proportions for diarrheal diseases and deaths. We combined the etiology proportions with incidence data collected from a population survey in Africa from 2020 and mortality data from the Global Health Observatory of WHO. Results: We estimated 1,008 billion diarrhea cases (95% UI 447 million-1,4 billion) and 515,031 diarrhea deaths (95% UI 248,983-1,007,641) in the African region in 2020. In children under five, enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC) (44,073 cases per 100,000 people, 95% UI 18,818 − 60,922) and G. lamblia (36,116 cases per 100,000 people, 95% UI 15,245 − 49,961) were the leading causes of illness. Enteroinvasive E. coli (EIEC) (155 deaths per 100,000 people, 95% UI 106.5-252.9) and rotavirus (61.5 deaths per 100,000 people, 95% UI 42.3-100.3) were the primary causes of deaths. For children over five and adults, Salmonella spp. caused the largest number of diarrheal cases in the population of children ≥ 5 and adults (122,090 cases per 100,000 people, 95% UI 51,833 − 168,822), while rotavirus (16.4 deaths per 100,000 people, 95% UI 4.2–36.7) and enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC) (14.6 deaths per 100,000 people, 95% UI 3.9–32.9) causing the most deaths. Geographically, the highest incidence of diarrhea was in Eastern Africa for children under five (114,389 cases per 100,000 people, 95% UI 34,771 − 172,884) and Central Africa for children over five and adults (117,820 cases per 100,000 people, 95% UI 75,111–157,584). Diarrheal mortality was highest in Western Africa for both children below five and above (children < 5: 194.5 deaths per 100,000 people, 95% UI 120-325.4; children ≥ 5 and above: 33.5 deaths per 100,000 people, 95% UI 12.9–75.1). Conclusion: These findings provide new information on the incidence and mortality of sixteen pathogens and highlight the need for surveillance and control of diarrheal infectious diseases in Africa. The cause-specific estimates are crucial for prioritizing diarrheal disease prevention in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A community’s cultural beliefs, attitudes and discourse can affect their responses in surveys. Knowledge of these cultural factors and how to comply with them or adjust for them during data collection can improve data quality. Objective: This study describes implications of features of Gambian culture related to women’s reproductive health, and mortality, when collecting data in surveys. Methods: 13 in-depth interviews of female interviewers and a focus group discussion among male interviewers were conducted in two rural health and demographic surveillance systems as well as three key informant interviews in three regions in The Gambia. Results: From the fieldworker’s viewpoint, questions relating to reproduction were best asked by women as culturally pregnancies should be concealed, and menstruation is considered a sensitive topic. Gambians were reluctant to speak about decedents and the Fula did not like to be counted, potentially affecting estimation of mortality. Asking about siblings proved problematic among the Fula and Serahule communities. Proposals made to overcome these challenges were that culturally-appropriate metaphors and symbols should be used to discuss sensitive matters and to enumerating births/deaths singly instead of collecting summary totals, which had threatening connotations. This was as opposed to training interviewers to ask standardised and precise verbatim questions. Contribution: This paper presents indigenous Gambian solutions by fieldworkers to culturally sensitive topics when collecting pregnancy outcomes and mortality data in demographic and health surveys. For researchers collecting maternal mortality data, it highlights the potential shortcomings of the sibling history methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the predictors of HIV/AIDS awareness and knowledge among older and younger Ghanaian women of reproductive age. Logistic regression was estimated using the 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data. Results indicate that older Ghanaian women are significantly different from their younger counterparts in terms of the selected socio-economic and demographic characteristics that influence awareness and knowledge of the epidemic. In all, the respondents' age, region of residence, wealth status, education, marital status and religious affiliation were found to significantly predict knowledge and awareness of HIV/AIDS among women. In addition, pregnancy status and place of residence proved to be significant correlates of HIV/AIDS awareness among Ghanaian women. The study suggests that higher social status is critical in determining whether women of reproductive age are aware of and knowledgeable about the epidemic. Thus, there is the need for policies and interventions to target messages taking into account the varied socio-economic and demographic backgrounds of women in Ghana. Further, health education interventions should be sensitive to the changing technological landscape in order to develop messages that can be delivered via mobile phones, whether as reminders or ringtones, and therefore enhance health knowledge and promote behaviour that brings about desirable health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Violence against women, particularly intimate partner violence, is a significant Concern for public health as well as a violation of the human rights of women especially in low and middle-income countries. However, there was limited evidence how soon an ever-married women experience intimate partner violence in Africa. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the timing of first intimate partner violence (FIPV) among ever-married women in 30 SSA countries and to identify the risk factors of the timing. Methods: The present study has utilized 125,731 weighted samples, who participated in the domestic violence module of the survey from Demographic and Health Surveys of 30 SSA countries. The Gompertz gamma shared frailty model was fitted to determine the predictors. For model evaluation, the theta value, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), and deviance were used. The Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported in the multivariable Gompertz gamma shared frailty model to highlight the strength and statistical significance of the associations. Result: One-third (31.02%) of ever-married women had reported experiencing IPV. The overall incidence rate of FIPV was 57.68 persons per 1000 person-years (95% CI = 50.61–65.76). Age at marriage, age difference, educational status, employment, residence, women's decision-making autonomy, husband who drink alcohol and wealth status were significantly associated with the timing of FIPV. Conclusion: The findings show that ever-married women are at high and increasing risk of violence. Thus, we recommend establishing effective health and legal response services for IPV, strengthening laws governing the sale and purchase of alcohol, empowering women, raising the educational attainment of women, and putting policies in place to combat the culture of societal tolerance for IPV all contribute to the empowerment of women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Undernutrition poses a significant global public health challenge, adversely affecting childhood cognitive and physical development while increasing the risk of disease and mortality. Stunting, characterized by impaired growth and development in children due to insufficient psychological stimulation, frequent infections, and inadequate nutrition, remains a critical issue. Although economic growth alone cannot fully address the prevalence of stunting, there exists a robust correlation between a country's income level and childhood stunting rates. Countries with higher incomes tend to have lower rates of childhood stunting. Notably, while childhood stunting is declining worldwide, it remains persistent in Africa. Consequently, this study aims to assess the prevalence of childhood stunting and its determinants in low- and lower-middle-income African countries Method: This study conducted a secondary analysis of standard demographic and health surveys in low- and lower-middle-income African countries spanning the period from 2010 to 2022. The analysis included a total sample of 204,214 weighted children under the age of five years. To identify the determinants of stunting, we employed a multilevel mixed-effect model, considering the three levels of variables. The measures of association (fixed effect) were determined using the adjusted odds ratio at a 95% confidence interval. Significance was declared when the association between the outcome variable and the explanatory variable had a p-value less than 0.05. Result: In low and lower-middle-income African countries, 31.28% of children under five years old experience stunting, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 31.08% to 31.48%. The results from a multilevel mixed-effect analysis revealed that 24 months or more of age of child, male gender, low and high birth weight, low and high maternal BMI, no and low maternal education, low household wealth index, multiple (twin or triplet) births, rural residence, and low income of countries were significantly associated with childhood stunting. Conclusion: Stunting among children under five years of age in low- and lower-middle-income African countries was relatively high. Individual, community, and country-level factors were statistically associated with childhood stunting. Equally importantly, with child, maternal, and community factors of stunting, the income of countries needs to be considered in providing nutritional interventions to mitigate childhood stunting in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article engages with public holidays in post-apartheid South Africa as lieux de mémoire, 'sites of memory' that preserve particular interpretations of historical events and selected heroes for inscription into the collective memory of the nation. It first traces the legislative process that resulted in the official rearrangement of the festive calendar after the 1994 first general elections, exploring the political and pragmatic considerations that influenced the selection of public holidays. Based on a survey conducted in the Durban area, the paper then engages with the public reception of the new festive calendar and the knowledge that people of different demographic backgrounds appear to have about the historical events commemorated. It is argued that the creation of the post-apartheid festive calendar reflects the spirit of the tense transition period with its concern for tolerance, reconciliation and national unity, but that these national holidays have largely failed as memory sites and instruments of nation-building. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The most recent World Medicines Situation Report published in 2011 found substantial medicine availability and affordability challenges across WHO regions, including Africa. Since publication of the 2011 report, medicine availability and affordability has risen on the international agenda and was included in the Sustainable Development Goals as Target 3.8. While numerous medicine availability and affordability studies have been conducted in Africa since the last World Medicines Situation Report, there has not been a systematic analysis of the methods used in these studies, measures of medicine availability and affordability, categories of medicines studied, or geographic distribution. Filling this knowledge gap can help inform future medicine availability and affordability studies, design systems to monitor progress toward Sustainable Development Goal Target 3.8 in Africa and beyond, and inform policy and program decisions to improve medicine availability and affordability. Methods: We conducted a systematic scoping review of studies assessing medicine availability or affordability conducted in the WHO Africa region published from 2009–2021. Results: Two hundred forty one articles met our eligibility criteria. 88% of the articles (213/241) reported descriptive studies, while 12% (28/241) reported interventional studies. Of the 198 studies measuring medicine availability, the most commonly used measure of medicine availability was whether a medicine was in stock on the date of a survey (124/198, 63%). We also identified multiple other availability methods and measures, including retrospective stock record reviews and self-reported medicine availability surveys. Of the 59 articles that included affordability measures, 32 (54%) compared the price of the medicine to the daily wage of the lowest paid government worker. Other affordability measures were patient self-reported affordability, capacity to pay measures, and comparing medicines prices with a population-level income standard (such as minimum wage, poverty line, or per capita income). The most commonly studied medicines were antiparasitic and anti-bacterial medicines. We did not identify studies in 22 out of 48 (46%) countries in the WHO Africa Region and more than half of the studies identified were conducted in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and/or Uganda. Conclusion: Our results revealed a wide range of medicine availability and affordability assessment methodologies and measures, including cross-sectional facility surveys, population surveys, and retrospective data analyses. Our review also indicated a need for greater focus on medicines for certain non-communicable diseases, greater geographic diversity of studies, and the need for more intervention studies to identify approaches to improve access to medicines in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: In many countries of the world millions of people are not registered at birth. However, in order to assess children's nutritional status it is necessary to have an exact knowledge of their age. In the present paper we discuss the effects of insufficient or imprecise age data on estimates of undernutrition prevalence.Design: Birth registration rates and levels of stunting, underweight and wasting were retrieved from Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys of thirty-seven sub-Saharan African countries, considering the subdivision in wealth quintiles. The composition of the cross-sectional sample used for nutritional evaluation was analysed using a permutation test. Logistic regression was applied to analyse the relationship between birth registration and undernutrition. The 95 % probability intervals and Student's t test were used to evaluate the effect of age bias and error.Results: Heterogeneous sampling designs were detected among countries, with different percentages of children selected for anthropometry. Further, registered children were slightly more represented within samples used for nutritional analysis than in the total sample. A negative relationship between birth registration and undernutrition was recognized, with registered children showing a better nutritional status than unregistered ones, even within each wealth quintile. The over- or underestimation of undernutrition in the case of systematic over- or underestimation of age, respectively, the latter being more probable, was quantified up to 28 %. Age imprecision was shown to slightly overestimate undernutrition.Conclusions: Selection bias towards registered children and underestimation of children's age can lead to an underestimation of the prevalence of undernutrition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The high under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in Africa is a significant public health concern. Previous studies have found that satellite retrieved light at night (LAN) data with long-term and global coverage can be used as a proxy for socio-economic development and urbanization. Currently, few studies on the effects of LAN on child mortality have been conducted in Africa, a region with varying levels of urbanization between countries. Objective: To quantify the correlation between risk of child mortality and LAN as an indicator of urbanization and economic development in Africa. Methods: Using data from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) database conducted in 15 African countries out of 46 countries from 2005 to 2013, this study estimated LAN levels for children based on their year of birth and residential addresses. This study used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between LAN and the risk of child mortality in Africa. Results: The mean U5MR was 95 per 1,000 livebirths among the 15 African countries during 2005–2013. After adjusting for covariates, each 10-unit increment in LAN was associated with a 5.3% reduction in the risk of U5MR. The effect estimates were more pronounced in areas with lower LAN. Conclusion: In Africa, the risk of U5MR decreased with increasing LAN, especially in areas with lower LAN. The results suggest that the development of urbanization and socio-economic conditions may be beneficial to child health, especially in regions with low LAN. The use of LAN as a proxy may offer an intriguing approach for identifying areas requiring targeted development in urbanization and socio-economic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the relationship between HIV, marriage and nonmarital sexual activity, with a focus on adolescent behaviors. We use data from 45 Demographic and Health Surveys to examine how adolescent behavior among women born from 1958 to 1965 are related to the subsequent spread of HIV over time. These women were adolescents during the early 1980s, a time when HIV had started to spread but the cause was still unknown. We find that areas with currently high HIV rates had greater female education and more premarital sexual activity in the cohorts that came of age before HIV was understood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze socioeconomic differences in adult mortality in four African countries-the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Rwanda and Sierra Leone-using the adult mortality module in the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), calculating mortality based on the sibling mortality reports collected from female respondents aged 15-49. We discuss the advantages and potential issues associated with this data source. While mortality events precipitated by those civil conflicts tend to affect all groups, we conclude that they appear to affect men, and in particular urban and more educated men to a greater extent than the other groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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One objective of this paper is to evaluate the determinants of female non-family work in Africa. Selected labor force participation theories are tested using demographic and health survey data. The traditional kinship-oriented family organization in Africa along with high fertility, have long been seen as factors that constrain women's participation in the labor force, particularly in seeking formal sector employment. Demographic and health survey data is used from two African countries, Ghana and Zimbabwe. Education emerges as the most important determinant of non-family work. Even if female education levels increase, single women may not gain easy entry into the informal economy managed by kinship-based social networks. A large proportion of these educated women may not find jobs if the formal economy does not expand. Results from Ghana and Zimbabwe are compared. The goals of this paper are to empirically examine the determinants of female non-family work in Africa and to evaluate if the findings can be generalized using a comparative study approach.

Background Utilization of adequate and quality prenatal healthcare services confers critical benefits to women and their unborn children. However, utilization rates remain low in many countries in Africa. Several studies have attempted to understand the primary drivers behind these low statistics. This article contributes to this discourse by examining the associations between birth interval and timing and number/frequency of antenatal care visits in Africa. Methods We pooled data from the publicly available Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in the last decade (2010–2020) for 32 African countries. Data were analysed using descriptive proportions and mixed effect binary logistic regression. Results The results illustrate moderate significant associations between spacing on the most recent birth by ≥36 months and early (first trimester) first antenatal care contact in both our bivariate (odds ratio [OR] 1.18, p<0.001) and multivariate (OR 1.106, p<0.001) analyses. The benefits on optimal antenatal contacts predicted on spacing are also noticed with birth intervals of 24–35 months (OR 1.08, p<0.001) and ≥36 months (OR 1.48, p<0.001). Conclusions Optimal birth spacing is beneficial for ANC utilization in terms of timing and total number of contacts. Post-partum family planning/contraceptive use can be an effective pathway to prolonging birth intervals. We argue that maternal and child health programmes strengthen prioritizing contraceptive use between births. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does interethnic marriage influence the occurrence of ethnic violence in sub-Saharan Africa? Previous studies on the relationship between intergroup contact and conflict onset have produced mixed findings. Some scholars have argued that this might be due to the way interethnic contact is measured. Building on insights of social psychology, this study examines the influence of interethnic marriage as the ultimate form of positive intergroup contact. In doing so, we combine information of the Demographic and Health Surveys with event data on ethnic conflict. Our analysis shows that areas with higher levels of exogamy significantly experience less ethnic conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Insecticide-treated nets (ITN) have largely been distributed via mass distribution campaigns. Since 2011, however, the World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended additional ITN distribution via routine antenatal care (ANC) and expanded programme on immunization (EPI) services. Countries have begun to implement these routine facility-based distribution strategies, but inconsistently, and there is little research on outcomes of these new programmes. This paper investigates the impact of ITN distribution policies on children's net use, comparing countries with different policies in place. Methods: Demographic Health Surveys from 25 countries in Africa were used to analyse household ITN ownership, and ITN use among children under 5 years of age. Countries were categorized in terms of the ITN facility-based distribution policies in place, based on nationally reported policies and distribution data provided to the WHO. The analysis was conducted for individual countries and then pooled with all countries in each category weighted equally to present the average country experience, by ITN distribution policy. Results: Household ITN ownership, children's ITN use, and children's ITN use in households with at least one ITN increase with each additional routine facility-based distribution policy. An average of 54.0% of children slept under an ITN in countries with ITN distribution via ANC and EPI, compared to 34.3% and 24.7% in countries with ITN distribution via ANC only, or no facility-based distribution, respectively. Linear regression found a 13% increase in net use among children under 5, on average, with each additional ITN distribution policy. Conclusion: ITN distribution via ANC and EPI can not only assist countries in maintaining ITN ownership and use, but may be extremely effective at increasing ITN ownership and use. There is also an additional benefit associated with combined ANC and EPI-based ITN distribution, compared to ANC distribution alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the size and profile of the middle class in Africa using alternative definitions based on pooled unit record data from the Demographic and Health Survey for 37 African countries covering the period 1990–2011. Results suggest that size of the middle class has grown modestly in many countries in the 2000 decade as compared with the 1990s. The article approached the making of the middle class in Africa from institutional and policy perspectives. Quality of institutions, ethnic fractionalisation and education play a significant role in determining the rise of the middle class. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: The COVID-19 respiratory illness caused by the SARS-CoV-2 has been a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide since the first reported case in Wuhan, China. A year has passed since pandemic began, and the reasons for different COVID-19 burden variation across continents keep puzzling the general public. Since the COVID-19 pandemic started, published research articles have addressed the epidemiological risk factors, host factors, susceptibility and immunity. To ascertain possible reasons for the different rates of COVID-19 infections between Africa and other continents, we summarized the up-to-date scientific literature to identify possible arguments in this regard. Available literature suggests that demographic, epidemiological, sociological, genetic and immunological factors contribute in the COVID-19 severity and the susceptibly to SARS-CoV-2. Short conclusion: This review summarizes existing data and discusses reasons for differential COVID-19 burden across continents. The arguments mentioned herein will be helpful to guide future experimental studies to test different hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural demographic studies have not led much in the field of remote sensing. In Africa, as well as in some developed countries, the existing demographic data are not suitable for planners' needs. To create accurate data, our paper explores a practical modelling technique, as well as less expensive solution techniques. We used data from an official demographic survey carried out in 1988 and a HRV1 satellite image of 1990. With a pixel-by-pixel textural basis analysis, we selected meaningful measure pixels for land cover units classification (mixed pixels were automatically removed). We then computed linear regression models. In the first model, the endogenous and heterogenous variables are respectively dwelling unit and cultivated unit. Furthermore, we calculated a regression from Census data (endogenous variable) and cultivated unit (exogenous data extracted from a HRV image). Finally we adjusted demographic data with two laws of distributions: exponential law and Pareto law. This article opens up the possibility of using remote sensing to estimate population sizes through environmental indicators more accurately. We obtained consistent adjusted correlation coefficients. En Afrique, et dans certains pays developpes, la pratique de recensements, amplement mise en cause par les bailleurs de fonds, est menacee de disparition. Nous proposons des pistes nouvelles pour la production d'une information demographique adaptee aux besoins des planificateurs et orientee vers la realisation de la comptabilite sociale. Pour cela, nous avons utilise une image HRV et les donnees du recensement officiel de 1988. Apres des traitements preliminaires bases sur la texture de notre image, nous avons extrait les villages dont nous disposons des statistiques officielles. Nous avons etabli des modeles de regression lineaire ou dans un premier temps la surface habitee est la variable endogene et la surface cultivee la variable exogene. Dans un deuxieme temps la population (recensement de 1988) est la variable endogene et la surface cultivee (extaite de l'image) la variable exogene. Enfin nous terminons par un ajustement des donnees de population par deux lois de distribution: loi exponentielle et loi de Pareto. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Implementation research (IR) can play a critical role in the delivery of disease control interventions, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The growing demand for IR training has led to the development of a range of training programmes and university courses, the majority of which can not be accessed by learners in LMICs. This article reports on the evaluation of the massive open online course (MOOC) developed by the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases hosted by WHO on the topic of IR with a focus on infectious diseases of poverty. This study followed the Kirkpatrick Model to evaluate training programmes with a specific focus on post-training changes in behaviour.Methods: MOOC participants were invited to take part in an anonymous online survey examining their knowledge of IR and how they applied it in their professional practice approximately 1-1.5 years after completing their course. The survey contained 43 open-ended, multiple choice and Likert-type questions. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the quantitative data and responses to the open-ended questions were thematically coded.Results: A total of 748 MOOC participants responded to the survey. The demographic profile of the survey respondents aligned with that of the MOOC participants, with nearly 70% of respondents originating from Africa. Responses to the quantitative and open-ended survey questions revealed that respondents' knowledge of IR had improved to a large extent as a result of the MOOC, and that they used the knowledge and skills gained in their professional lives frequently and had consequently changed their professional behaviour. Respondents most often cited the problem-solving aspect of IR as a substantial area of behavioral change influenced by participating in the MOOC.Conclusions: These findings indicate that the MOOC was successful in targeting learners from LMICs, in strengthening their IR knowledge and contributing to their ability to apply it in their professional practice. The utility of MOOCs for providing IR training to learners in LMICs, where implementation challenges are encountered often, makes this platform an ideal standalone learning tool or one that could be combined with other training formats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in fertility patterns are hypothesized to be among the many second-order consequences of armed conflict, but expectations about the direction of such effects are theoretically ambiguous. Prior research, from a range of contexts, has also yielded inconsistent results. We contribute to this debate by using harmonized data and methods to examine the effects of exposure to conflict on preferred and observed fertility outcomes across a spatially and temporally extensive population. We use high-resolution georeferenced data from 25 sub-Saharan African countries, combining records of violent events from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) with data on fertility goals and outcomes from the Demographic and Health Surveys (n = 368,765 women aged 15–49 years). We estimate a series of linear and logistic regression models to assess the effects of exposure to conflict events on ideal family size and the probability of childbearing within the 12 months prior to the interview. We find that, on average, exposure to armed conflict leads to modest reductions in both respondents' preferred family size and their probability of recent childbearing. Many of these effects are heterogeneous between demographic groups and across contexts, which suggests systematic differences in women's vulnerability or preferred responses to armed conflict. Additional analyses suggest that conflict-related fertility declines may be driven by delays or reductions in marriage. These results contribute new evidence about the demographic effects of conflict and their underlying mechanisms, and broadly underline the importance of studying the second-order effects of organized violence on vulnerable populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Anemia in women of reproductive age is a major public health challenge for low- and middle-income countries with a long-term negative impact on the health of women, their children, and the economic growth of the society. Even though the world health organization targeted a 50% global reduction of anemia among women of reproductive age by 2025, with the current trend it is unlikely to achieve this goal. Objective: This study aimed to assess the prevalence and associated factors of anemia among women of reproductive age in eastern Africa. Methods: A secondary data analysis, using demographic and health survey (DHS) data of 10 eastern African countries, was conducted. For our study, a total weighted sample of 101524 women of reproductive age was used. We employed a multilevel mixed-effects generalized linear model (using Poisson regression with robust error variance). Both unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios with their 95% confidence interval were reported. Results: The prevalence of anemia in eastern Africa was 34.85 (95%CI: 34.56–35.14) ranging from 19.23% in Rwanda to 53.98% in Mozambique. In the multivariable multilevel analysis, being older age, having primary and above education, being from households with second to highest wealth quantiles, being currently working, not perceiving distance as a big problem, use of modern contraceptive methods, and rural residence was associated with a lower prevalence of anemia. While, being married and divorced/separated/widowed, women from female-headed households, women from households with unimproved toilet facility and unimproved water source, ever had of a terminated pregnancy, having high parity, and being from large household size was associated with a higher prevalence of anemia. Conclusion: The prevalence of anemia in eastern Africa was relatively high. Both individual level and community level factors were associated with the prevalence of anemia in women of reproductive age. Therefore, giving special attention to those women who are at a higher prevalence of anemia such as younger women, those who are from households with low socioeconomic status, unimproved toilet facility, and source of drinking water, as well as pregnant women could decrease anemia in women of reproductive age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Research on contraceptive behaviour changes over time in Uganda is scarce, yet it has among the highest fertility and maternal mortality rates of any country in the East African region. Understanding temporal patterns of contraceptive use for both women and men is vital in evaluating the effectiveness of family planning interventions and strategies, and identifying those with the most unmet need. Using repeated nationally representative cross-sectional samples, this study charts the changes in Uganda’s population-based contraceptive use over recent years. Methods: Five Demographic and Health Survey datasets for Uganda over 21 years, from 1995 to 2016, were sourced and interrogated. Eligible participants included all women aged 15–49 years and men aged 15–54 years. Responses to questions on modern and any (modern or traditional) contraceptive use were analysed. Stratified by gender, weighted regression analyses were employed to detect change over time. The patterns associated with key demographic variables were also investigated. Results: Overall, 50,027 women and 14,092 men were included within the study. In 2016, 30.3% of women and 39.9% of men were using any contraceptive method, a significant non-linear increase from 13.4% of women and 20.3% of men in 1995. Furthermore, 27.3% of women and 35.9% of men were using modern contraceptive methods in 2016, an increase from 7.4% of women and 10.4% of men in 1995. All considered demographic variables were significantly associated with contraceptive use for both women and men (all P<0.001); and for women, all variables differentially changed over time (all P<0.001). Conclusion: This study showed a significant increase and dynamism across key demographic variables in contraceptive uptake by both women and men. Sustained family planning programs and interventions have successfully resulted in behaviour change across the Ugandan population. However, continued efforts are needed to further reduce Uganda’s relatively high fertility and associated maternal mortality rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The gap between fertility outcomes and fertility ideals is notably higher in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) than elsewhere, relating to both under- and overachievement of fertility ideals. We consider the extent to which the relationship between fertility ideals and fertility outcomes is related to educational achievement. Further, we consider if these educational differentials are the same or different in SSA, and thereby consider the extent to which increasing levels of education in SSA may decrease fertility. Data and methods: We use 227 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) from 58 countries worldwide to look at population- level measures of the mismatch between fertility ideals and fertility outcomes. Population level measures are used to assess whether the correspondence between fertility intentions and achievements differ by level of education. We then look at the individual-level determinants of both under- and overachieving fertility intentions. Data from the most recent DHS in 54 of the original countries is used for the individual level analysis, with five countries excluded due to the most recent available survey being out of date. Results: An average of 40% of women in SSA underachieve their stated fertility intentions compared to 26% in non-SSA countries. Furthermore, compared to other LMICs, higher levels of education are not related to better correspondence between fertility intentions and outcomes in SSA. In Middle/Western Africa countries, on average, 48% of women with secondary or higher education have fewer children than their ideal, compared to just 24% who have more children than their ideal. Conclusion: We argue that the phenomenon of underachieving fertility ideals (or unrealized fertility) may be of particular importance for the ongoing fertility transition throughout SSA, especially as more highly educated groups do not appear to be following the patterns observed elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Method-specific contraceptive prevalence varies widely globally, as huge variations exist in the use of different types of contraception, with short-term methods being the most common methods in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Evidence is scanty on the trends, patterns and determinants of long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) methods in SSA. This study aimed to address this knowledge gap. Methods: Using a pseudo longitudinal research design and descriptive and inferential statistics, we analysed Demographic and Health Survey data of eight countries selected on the basis of contraceptive prevalence rates across SSA. Multinomial logistic regression modelling was used to tease out the predictors of the uptake of LARC methods in the selected countries. Results: Findings exhibit a steady but slow upward trend in LARC methods across selected countries, as a marginal increase was recorded in LARC uptake over a 10-year period in many of the selected countries. Results established significant predictors of LARC methods uptake, including fertility-related characteristics, age, level of education, work status, wealth index and exposure to mass media. This study underscored the need to address various barriers to the uptake of LARC methods in SSA. It is recommended that governments at different levels undertake to cover the costs of LARC methods in order to increase access and uptake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite increased vaccination rates, the burden, morbidity and mortality associated with vaccine preventable diseases remains high. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), potentially unreliable data and geographically varied program provision call for a better understanding of vaccination coverage and its changes over time at the country and province level. To assess changes in the proportion of children who were fully vaccinated over time in the DRC, vaccination histories for children 12–59 months of age were obtained from both the 2007 and 2013–2014 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Changes were assessed, both at the country- and province-levels, to identify potential geographic variations. Vaccination coverage improved 70% between the DHS waves: 26% compared to 44% of 12–59 month-old children met full vaccination criteria in 2007 and 2013–2014, respectively (n2007 = 3032 and n2013-14 = 6619). Similarly, there was an overall trend across both DHS waves where as year of birth increased, so did vaccination coverage. There was geographic variation in immunization changes with most central and eastern provinces increasing in coverage and most northern, western and southern provinces having decreased vaccination coverage at the second time point. Using nationally representative data, we identified significant changes over time in vaccination coverage which may help to inform future policy, interventions and research to improve vaccination rates among children in the DRC. This study is the first of its kind for the population of DRC and provides an important initial step towards better understanding trends in vaccination coverage over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing modern contraceptive use is important for improving maternal and child health and achieving economic growth and development goals. However, pervasive high unmet need for modern contraceptives in sub-Saharan Africa warrants new understandings of the drivers of modern contraceptive use. A deviance approach (i.e., examining how women’s experiences/characteristics differ from other women in their community) provides an innovative framework for capturing heterogeneity among women in a community. This framework can inform public health programming by both exploring how women avoid adverse health outcomes and understanding the needs of harder-to-reach populations who may experience health risks, despite living in communities where others do not experience vulnerability. Using data from Demographic and Health Surveys from 29 sub-Saharan African countries, we examine how a woman’s deviation from community norms around socioeconomic characteristics and gender and fertility norms and behaviors is associated with modern contraceptive use. Random-effects logistic regression models were fitted for each country to examine relationships between modern contraceptive use and deviance. Some deviance factors were associated with modern contraceptive use in only a few countries, while others were significant across many countries. Cross-country consistency in the direction of the relationship between deviance and modern contraceptive use varied by the specific deviance factor, with some relationships being consistent across countries, and other relationships being more varied. For example, having more education than the community norm was associated with increased modern contraceptive use across countries; however, marrying older than other women in the community was associated with an increase in modern contraceptive use in some countries and a decrease in others. More work is needed to understand the role of deviance on modern contraceptive use; however, this study suggests that using context-specific deviance approaches may be important for further elucidating experiences of modern contraceptive use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Literature abounds with evidence on the effectiveness of individual mass media interventions on contraceptive use and other health behaviors. There have been, however, very few studies summarizing effect sizes of mass media health communication campaigns in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we used meta-analytic techniques to pool data from 47 demographic and health surveys conducted between 2005 and 2015 in 31 sub-Saharan African countries and estimate the prevalence of exposure to family planning-related mass media communication. We also estimated the average effect size of exposure to mass media communication after adjusting for endogeneity. We performed meta-regression to assess the moderating role of selected variables on effect size. On average, 44% of women in sub-Saharan Africa were exposed to family planning-related mass media interventions in the year preceding the survey. Overall, exposure was associated with an effect size equivalent to an odds ratio of 1.93. More recent surveys demonstrated smaller effect sizes than earlier ones, while the effects were larger in lower contraceptive prevalence settings than in higher prevalence ones. The findings have implications for designing communication programs, setting expectations about communication impact, and guiding decisions about sample size estimation for mass media evaluation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study examines patterns of homogamy and heterogamy and their implications for couple’s fertility behaviour. Data were obtained from demographic and health surveys conducted in Ghana, Nigeria and Zambia between 2001 and 2014. The study population were couples in a monogamous union where wives were aged 35 years and over: 1785 in Ghana, 3185 in Nigeria and 3175 in Zambia. Results of the descriptive analysis show that educational, religious and ethnic homogamy and occupational heterogamy were predominant among the couples and mean children ever born varied according to couples’ characteristics. The significant predictors of fertility as revealed in the multivariate analysis included educational homogamy and heterogamy, occupational homogamy, age difference and religious and ethnic homogamy. To expedite fertility transition in the three countries and other sub-Saharan African countries, programmes and policies aimed at reducing fertility in the region should incorporate strategies that focus on the characteristics of couples in union. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The question of family dissolution has been widely debated by demographers, economists and health experts in developed countries. However, there appears to be a dearth of research on the contextual determinants of family dissolution in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the variations that exist within regions. This article is stimulated by the recognition that family dissolution is associated with negative consequences both for adults and for children. Using pooled data from the recent Demographic and Health Surveys of 16 SSA countries with a weighted sample of 51 474 (Central Africa), 61 069 (East Africa), 42 247 (Southern Africa) and 83 187 (West Africa) women, the article examines the contextual determinants of family dissolution in SSA. Dissolution rates ranged from 12% in East Africa to 20% in Central Africa. Socio-economic variables were strong predictors of dissolution in all of the regions although direction of association differed. This article adds to the body of knowledge of family dissolution in SSA. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: Overweight and obesity are risk factors for many chronic diseases globally. However, the extent of the problem in low-income countries like Sub-Saharan Africa is unclear. We assessed the magnitude and disparity of both phenomena by place of residence, level of education and wealth quintile using cross-sectional data from 32 countries.Methods: Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data collected in 32 Sub-Saharan African countries between January 2005 and December 2013 were used. A total of 250651 women (aged 15-49 years) were analyzed. Trained personnel using a standardized procedure measured body weight and height. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated by dividing body weight by height squared. Prevalence of overweight (25.0-29.9 kg/m(2)) and obesity (≥ 30.0 kg/m(2)) were estimated for each country. Analysis of the relationships of overweight and obesity with place of residence, education and wealth index were carried out using logistic regression.Results: The pooled prevalence of overweight for the region was 15.9% (95% CI, 15.7-16.0) with the lowest in Madagascar 5.6% (95% CI, 5.1-6.1) and the highest in Swaziland 27.7% (95% CI, 26.4-29.0). Similarly, the prevalence of obesity was also lowest in Madagascar 1.1% (95% CI, 0.9-1.4) and highest in Swaziland 23.0 (95% CI, 21.8-24.2). The women in urban residence and those who were classified as rich, with respect to the quintile of the wealth index, had higher likelihood of overweight and obesity. In the pooled results, high education was significantly associated with overweight and obesity.Conclusions: The prevalence of overweight and obesity varied highly between the countries and wealth index (rich vs. poor) was found to be the strongest predictor in most of the countries. Interventions that will address the socio-cultural barriers to maintaining healthy body size can contribute to curbing the overweight and obesity epidemic in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Decentralization of ART services scaled up significantly with the country wide roll out of option B plus in Uganda. Little work has been undertaken to examine population level access to HIV care particularly in hard to reach areas in rural Africa. Most work on ART scale up has been done at health facility level which omits people not accessing healthcare in the community. This study describes health service usage, particularly HIV testing and care in 2/6 parishes of Lapono sub-county of northern Uganda, prior to introduction of ART services in Lira Kato Health Centre (a local lower-level health centre III), as part of ART decentralization.Methods: Household and individual questionnaires were administered to household members (aged 15-59 years). Logit random effects models were used to test for differences in proportions (allowing for clustering within villages).Results: 2124 adults from 1351 households were interviewed (755 [36%] males, 1369 [64 %] females). 2051 (97%) participants reported seeking care locally for fever, most on foot and over half at Lira Kato Health Centre. 574 (76%) men and 1156 (84%) women reported ever-testing for HIV (P < 0.001 for difference); 34/574 (6%) men and 102/1156 (9%) women reported testing positive (P = 0.04). 818/850 (96%) women who had given birth in the last 5 years had attended antenatal care in their last pregnancy: 7 women were already diagnosed with HIV (3 on ART) and 790 (97%) reported being tested for HIV (34 tested newly positive). 124/136 (91%) HIV-positive adults were in HIV-care, 123/136 (90 %) were taking cotrimoxazole and 74/136 (54%) were on ART. Of adults in HIV-care, most were seen at Kalongo hospital (n = 87), Patongo Health Centre (n = 7) or Lira Kato Health Centre (n = 23; no ART services). 58/87, 5/7 and 20/23 individuals walked to Kalongo hospital (56 km round-trip, District Health Office information), Patongo Health Centre (76 km round-trip, District Health Office information) and Lira Kato Health Centre (local) respectively. 8 HIV-infected children were reported; only 2 were diagnosed aged <24 months: 7/8 were in HIV-care including 3 on ART.Conclusions: Higher proportions of women compared to men reported ever-testing for HIV and testing HIV-positive, similar to other surveys. HIV-infected men and women travelled considerable distances for ART services. Children appeared to be under-accessing testing and referral for treatment. Decentralization of ART services to a local health facility would decrease travel time and transport costs, making care and treatment more easily accessible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The burden of hypertension is high in Africa, and due to rapid population growth and ageing, the exact burden on the continent is still far from being known. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and awareness rates of hypertension in Africa based on the cut off “≥140/90 mm Hg”. Methods: We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health. Search date was set from January 1980 to December 2013. We included population-based studies on hypertension, conducted among people aged ≥15 years and providing numerical estimates on the prevalence of hypertension in Africa. Overall pooled prevalence of hypertension in mixed, rural and urban settings in Africa were estimated from reported crude prevalence rates. A meta-regression epidemiological modelling, using United Nations population demographics for the years 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2030, was applied to determine the prevalence rates and number of cases of hypertension in Africa separately for these four years. Results: Our search returned 7680 publications, 92 of which met the selection criteria. The overall pooled prevalence of hypertension in Africa was 19.7% in 1990, 27.4% in 2000 and 30.8% in 2010, each with a pooled awareness rate (expressed as percentage of hypertensive cases) of 16.9%, 29.2% and 33.7%, respectively. From the modelling, over 54.6 million cases of hypertension were estimated in 1990, 92.3 million cases in 2000, 130.2 million cases in 2010, and a projected increase to 216.8 million cases of hypertension by 2030; each with an age-adjusted prevalence of 19.1% (13.9, 25.5), 24.3% (23.3, 31.6), 25.9% (23.5, 34.0), and 25.3% (24.3, 39.7), respectively. Conclusion: Our findings suggest the prevalence of hypertension is increasing in Africa, and many hypertensive individuals are not aware of their condition. We hope this research will prompt appropriate policy response towards improving the awareness, control and overall management of hypertension in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study validated an adapted measure of organisational energy, namely the Energy Scapes Profile (ESP), in the South African context, considering also possible differences in perceptions of organisational energy by the participants' demographics. Participants were a convenience sample of 304 employees (females = 75.4%; Black Ethnic Group = 62%). Factor analysis resulted in a unidimensional organizational energy factor. Anova analyses showed that the senior managers and those with longer tenure perceived organisational energy on their job level and years in current job. The results of the research confirm the utility of the ESP as a measure of organisational energy in South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The practice of female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) has been documented in many countries in Africa and in several countries in Asia and the Middle East, yet producing reliable data concerning its prevalence and the numbers of girls and women affected has proved a major challenge. This study provides estimates of the total number of women aged 15 years and older who have undergone FGM/C in 27 African countries and Yemen. Drawing on national population-based survey data regarding FGM/C prevalence and census data regarding the number of women in each country, we find that almost 87 million girls and women aged 15 and older have been cut in these 28 countries. Producing reliable figures for the number of women affected by FGM/C in these countries allows researchers and program directors to better comprehend the impact of the practice and to mobilize resources for advocacy against it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Malaria, pneumonia and diarrhoea continue to kill millions of children in Africa despite the available and effective treatments. Correct diagnosis and prompt treatment with effective drugs at the first option consulted for child care is crucial for preventing severe disease and death from these illnesses. Using the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey data, the present study aims to assess care-seeking and management of suspected malaria, pneumonia and diarrhoea at various health care facilities in Tanzania. Methods: We analyzed data for 8176 children born within a 5 years period preceding the survey.The information was collected by interviewing 5519 women aged 15–49 years in 10,300 households selected from 475 sample points throughout Tanzania. Results: The most common first option for child care was PHC facilities (54.8%), followed by private pharmacies (23.4%). These were more commonly utilized in rural compared to urban areas: 61.2% versus 34.5% for PHC facilities, and 26.5% versus 17.7% for pharmacies. Women in urban areas and those with higher level of education more commonly utilized higher level hospitals and private facilities as their first option for child care. Only one in four children with fever had received a blood test during the illness with lowest proportion being reported among children solely attended at PHC facilities. Use of abandoned antimalarial drugs for the treatment of suspected malaria was also observed in public health facilities and antibiotics use for diarrhoea treatment was high (49.0%). Conclusions: PHC facilities and pharmacies most commonly provided sub-optimal care. These facilities were more commonly utilized as the first option for child care in rural areas and among the poor and non-educated families. These are groups with the highest child mortality, which calls for interventions’ targeting improvement of care at these facilities to further reduce child mortality from treatable illnesses in Tanzania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for Burkina Faso (2003), Cameroon (2004), Ghana (2003), Kenya (2003), and Tanzania (2003), I investigate the cross-sectional relationship between HIV status and socioeconomic status. I find evidence of a robust positive education gradient in HIV infection, showing that, up to very high levels of education, better-educated respondents are more likely to be HIV-positive. Adults with six years of schooling are as much as three percentage points more likely to be infected with HIV than adults with no schooling. This gradient is not an artifact of age, sector of residence, or region of residence. With controls for sex, age, sector of residence, and region of residence, adults with six years of schooling are as much as 50% more likely to be infected with HIV than those with no schooling. Education is positively related to certain risk factors for HIV including the likelihood of having premarital sex. Estimates of the wealth gradient in HIV, by contrast, vary substantially across countries and are sensitive to the choice of measure of wealth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Population-based sample surveys and sentinel surveillance methods are commonly used as substitutes for more widespread health and demographic monitoring and intervention studies in resource-poor settings. Such methods have been criticised as only being worthwhile if the results can be extrapolated to the surrounding 100-fold population. With an emphasis on measuring mortality, this study explores the extent to which choice of sampling method affects the representativeness of 1% sample data in relation to various demographic and health parameters in a rural, developing-country setting. Methods: Data from a large community based census and health survey conducted in rural Burkina Faso were used as a basis for modelling. Twenty 1% samples incorporating a range of health and demographic parameters were drawn at random from the overall dataset for each of seven different sampling procedures at two different levels of local administrative units. Each sample was compared with the overall 'gold standard' survey results, thus enabling comparisons between the different sampling procedures. Results: All sampling methods and parameters tested performed reasonably well in representing the overall population. Nevertheless, a degree of variation could be observed both between sampling approaches and between different parameters, relating to their overall distribution in the total population. Conclusion: Sample surveys are able to provide useful demographic and health profiles of local populations. However, various parameters being measured and their distribution within the sampling unit of interest may not all be best represented by a particular sampling method. It is likely therefore that compromises may have to be made in choosing a sampling strategy, with costs, logistics the intended use of the data being important considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimation of unwanted fertility is a major objective of demographic surveys, including DHS surveys conducted in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Levels and trends in unwanted fertility are important input to the formulation of population policy and the evaluation of family planning programs. Yet existing methods for estimating unwanted fertility are known to be defective, among other reasons because they rely on subjective data whose validity and reliability are questionable. In this article, we propose a new estimator of unwanted fertility-the "aggregate prospective estimator"--so named because it depends on the stated preference for another child at the time of the survey, the fertility-desires item consistently shown to possess the highest validity and reliability. Under reasonable assumptions, the aggregate prospective estimator produces less biased estimates of unwanted fertility than the most widely used existing methods. The new estimator has the limitation of generating only aggregate-level estimates, but such estimates are the primary data for policy formulation and program evaluation. The new estimator is presented in this article, along with an evaluation of its underlying assumptions and its sensitivity to several sources of error. In an illustrative application to recent DHS data from six countries, the new estimator yields substantially higher estimates of unwanted fertility than existing methods in all six countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using longitudinal data from three demographic surveillance systems (DSS) and a retrospective cohort study, we estimate levels and trends in the prevalence and incidence of orphanhood in South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi in the period 1988-2004. The prevalence of maternal, paternal, and double orphans rose in all three populations. In South Africa - where the HIV epidemic started later, has been very severe, and has not yet stabilized - the incidence of orphanhood among children is double that of the other populations. The living arrangements of children vary considerably between the populations, particularly in relation to fathers. Patterns of marriage, migration, and adult mortality influence the living and care arrangements of orphans and non-orphans. DSS data provide new insights into the impact of adult mortality on children, challenging several widely held assumptions. For example, we find no evidence that the prevalence of child-headed households is significant or has increased in the three study areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complement receptor-1 (CR1) is a ligand for rosette formation, a phenomenon associated with cerebral malaria (CM). Binding is dependent on erythrocyte CR1 copy number. In Caucasians, low CR1 expressors have two linked mutations. We determined the Q981H and HindIII RFLP distribution in differing population groups to ascertain a possible role in adaptive evolution. We examined 194 Caucasians, 180 Choctaw Indians, 93 Chinese-Taiwanese, 304 Cambodians, 89 Papua New Guineans (PNG) and 366 Africans. PCR/RFLP used HindIII for CR1 expression and BstNI for the Q981H mutation. DNA sequencing and pyrosequencing were performed to resolve inconclusive results. Gene frequencies for the L allele were 0.15 in Africans, 0.16 in Choctaws, 0.18 in Caucasians, 0.29 in Chinese-Taiwanese, 0.47 in Cambodians and 0.58 in PNG. Allelic frequency for 981H were 0.07 in Africans, 0.15 in Caucasians, 0.18 in Choctaws, 0.29 in Chinese-Taiwanese, 0.47 in Cambodians and 0.54 in PNG. The Q981H polymorphism correlates with the HindIII RFLP in most groups except West Africans and appears to be part of a low CR1 expression haplotype. The gene frequency for the haplotype is highest in the malaria-endemic areas of Asia, suggesting that this haplotype may have evolved because it protects from rosetting and CM.Genes and Immunity (2005) 6, 31-36. doi:10.1038/sj.gene.6364150 Published online 2 December 2004 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]