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Northeast China plays a pivotal role in producing commodity grains. The precipitation and temperature distribution during the growth season is impacted by geographical and climate factors, rendering the region vulnerable to drought. However, relying on a single index does not reflect the severity and extent of drought in different regions. This research utilised the random forest (RF) model for screening remote sensing indices. Relative soil moisture (RSM) was employed to compare seven commonly used indices: the temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI), vegetation supply water index (VSWI), vegetation condition index (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI), vegetation health index (VHI), multi-band drought index (MBDI), and normalised difference drought index (NDDI). The effectiveness of these indices for monitoring drought during different developmental stages of spring maize was evaluated. Trend rates were employed to investigate the temporal changes in drought patterns of spring maize from 2003 to 2020, and the Sen + Mann–Kendall test was used to analyse spatial variations. The results showed the following: (1) The seven remote sensing indices could accurately track drought during critical growth stages with the TVDI demonstrating higher applicability than the other six indices. (2) The application periods of two TVDIs with different parameters differed for the drought monitoring of spring maize in different developmental periods. The consistency and accuracy of the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI)-based TVDI (TVDIN) were 5.77% and 34.62% higher than those of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI)-based TVDI (TVDIE), respectively, in the early stage. In contrast, the TVDIE exhibited 13.46% higher consistency than the TVDIN in the middle stage, and the accuracy was the same. During the later stage, the TVDIE showed significantly higher consistency and accuracy than the TVDIN with consistency increases of 9.61% and 38.64%, respectively. (3) The drought trend in northeast China increased from 2003 to 2020, exhibiting severe spring drought and a weakening of the drought in summer. The southern, southwestern, and northwestern parts of northeast China showed an upward drought trend; the drought-affected areas accounted for 37.91% of the study area. This paper identified the most suitable remote sensing indices for monitoring drought in different developmental stages of spring maize. The results provide a comprehensive understanding of the spatial–temporal patterns of drought during the past 18 years. These findings can be used to develop a dynamic agricultural drought monitoring model to ensure food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using remote sensing data to monitor large area drought is one of the important methods of drought monitoring at present. However, the traditional remote sensing drought monitoring methods mainly focus on monitoring single drought response factors such as soil moisture or vegetation status, and the research on comprehensive multi-factor drought monitoring is limited. In order to improve the ability to resist drought events, this paper takes Henan Province of China as an example, takes multi-source remote sensing data as data sources, considers various disaster-causing factors, adopts random forest method to model, and explores the method of regional remote sensing comprehensive drought monitoring using various remote sensing data sources. Compared with neural network, classification regression tree and linear regression, the performance of random forest is more stable and tolerant to noise and outliers. In order to provide a new method for comprehensive assessment of regional drought, a comprehensive drought monitoring model was established based on multi-source remote sensing data, which comprehensively considered the drought factors such as soil water stress, vegetation growth status and meteorological precipitation profit and loss in the process of drought occurrence and development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is an important factor that limits economic and social development due to its frequent occurrence and profound influence. Therefore, it is of great significance to make accurate predictions of drought for earlywarning and disaster alleviation. In this paper, SPEI-1was confirmed to classify drought grades in the Guanzhong Area, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), random forest (RF) and support vectormachine (SVM)modelwere established. Meteorological data and remote sensing datawere used to derive the predictionmodels. The results showed the following. (1) The SVM model performed the best when themodelswere developed using meteorological data, remote sensing data and a combination of meteorological and remote sensing data, but the model's corresponding kernel functions are different and include linear, polynomial and Gaussian radial basis kernel functions, respectively. (2) The RF model driven by the remote sensing data and the SVMmodel driven by the combinedmeteorological and remote sensing data were found to perform better than the model driven by the corresponding other data in the Guanzhong Area. It is difficult to accurately measure drought with the singlemeteorological data. Only by considering the combined factors can we more accurately monitor and predict drought. This study can provide an important scientific basis for regional drought warnings and predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]