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Background: Non-fatal self-harm is one of the most frequent reasons for emergency hospital admission and the strongest risk factor for subsequent suicide. Repeat self-harm and suicide are key clinical outcomes of the hospital management of self-harm. We have undertaken a comprehensive review of the international literature on the incidence of fatal and non-fatal repeat self-harm and investigated factors influencing variation in these estimates as well as changes in the incidence of repeat self-harm and suicide over the last 30 years. Methods and Findings: Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Google Scholar, article reference lists and personal paper collections of the authors were searched for studies describing rates of fatal and non-fatal self-harm amongst people who presented to health care services for deliberate self-harm. Heterogeneity in pooled estimates of repeat self-harm incidence was investigated using stratified meta-analysis and meta-regression. The search identified 177 relevant papers. The risk of suicide in the 12 months after an index attempt was 1.6% (CI 1.2–2.4) and 3.9% (CI 3.2–4.8) after 5 years. The estimated 1 year rate of non-fatal repeat self-harm was 16.3% (CI 15.1–17.7). This proportion was considerably lower in Asian countries (10.0%, CI 7.3–13.6%) and varies between studies identifying repeat episodes using hospital admission data (13.7%, CI 12.3–15.3) and studies using patient report (21.9%, CI 14.3–32.2). There was no evidence that the incidence of repeat self-harm was lower in more recent (post 2000) studies compared to those from the 1980s and 1990s. Conclusions: One in 25 patients presenting to hospital for self-harm will kill themselves in the next 5 years. The incidence of repeat self-harm and suicide in this population has not changed in over 10 years. Different methods of identifying repeat episodes of self-harm produce varying estimates of incidence and this heterogeneity should be considered when evaluating interventions aimed at reducing non-fatal repeat self-harm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Around 67 million pets are owned by households in the United Kingdom, and an increasing number of these are exotic animals. Approximately a third of pets are purchased through retail outlets or direct from breeders. A wide range of infections can be associated with companion animals. Objectives: This study uses a systematic literature review to describe the transmission of zoonotic disease in humans associated with a pet shop or other location selling pets (incidents of rabies tracebacks and zoonoses from pet food were excluded). Data sources: PubMed and EMBASE. Results: Fifty seven separate case reports or incidents were described in the 82 papers that were identified by the systematic review. Summary information on each incident is included in this manuscript. The infections include bacterial, viral and fungal diseases and range in severity from mild to life threatening. Infections associated with birds and rodents were the most commonly reported. Over half of the reports describe incidents in the Americas, and three of these were outbreaks involving more than 50 cases. Many of the incidents identified relate to infections in pet shop employees. Limitations: This review may have been subject to publication bias, where unusual and unexpected zoonotic infections may be over-represented in peer-reviewed publications. It was also restricted to English-language articles so that pathogens that are more common in non-Western countries, or in more exotic animals not common in Europe and the Americas, may have been under-represented. Conclusions/implications: A wide spectrum of zoonotic infections are acquired from pet shops. Salmonellosis and psittacosis were the most commonly documented diseases, however more unusual infections such as tularemia also appeared in the review. Given their potential to spread zoonotic infection, it is important that pet shops act to minimise the risk as far as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a stratified analysis, the results from different strata if homogeneity assumption is met are pooled together to obtain a single summary estimate for the common effect parameter. However, the effect can appear homogeneous across strata using one measure but heterogeneous using another. Consequently, two researchers analyzing the same data can arrive at conflicting conclusions if they use different effect measures. In this paper, the author draws on the sufficient component cause model to develop a stratified-analysis method regarding a particular effect measure, the ‘peril ratio’. When there is no mechanistic interaction between the exposure under study and the stratifying variable (i.e., when they do not work together to complete any sufficient cause), the peril ratio is constant across strata. The author presents formulas for the estimation of such a common peril ratio. Three real data are re-analyzed for illustration. When the data is consistent with peril-ratio homogeneity in a stratified analysis, researchers can use the formulas in this paper to pool the strata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies aimed at understanding the association between induced abortion and HIV are scarce and differ on the direction of the association. This paper aims to show the prevalence of induced abortion in a sample of pregnancies of women living and not living with HIV/Aids, determining variables associated with pregnancy termination and linked to the life course of women and to the specific context of the pregnancy. Methods: Data came from a cross-sectional study, using interviewer-administered questionnaire, developed with women that attended public health services in Porto Alegre, Brazil. A generalized estimating equation model with logit link measured the association between determinants and abortion. Findings: The final sample was composed of 684 women living with HIV/Aids (2,039 pregnancies) and 639 women not living with HIV/Aids (1,539 pregnancies). The prevalence of induced abortion among pregnancies in women living with HIV/Aids was 6.5%, while in women not living with HIV/Aids was 2.9%. Among women living with HIV/Aids, the following were associated with induced abortion in the multivariable analysis: being older, having a higher education level, having had more sexual partners (i.e., variables linked to the life course of women), having had children prior to the index pregnancy and living with a sexual partner during pregnancy (i.e., variables linked to the context of each pregnancy). On the other hand, among women not living with HIV/Aids, only having a higher education level and having had more sexual partners (i.e., determinants linked to the life course of women) were associated with voluntary pregnancy termination in multivariable analysis. Conclusion: Although determinants are similar between women living and not living with HIV/Aids, prevalence of induced abortion is higher among pregnancies in women living with HIV/Aids, pointing to their greater social vulnerability and to the need for public policy to address prevention and treatment of HIV associated with reproductive issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a performance measure for a prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is insensitive to the addition of strong markers. A number of measures sensitive to performance change have recently been proposed; however, these relative-performance measures may lead to self-contradictory conclusions. This paper examines alternative performance measures for prediction models: the Lorenz curve-based Gini and Pietra indices, and a standardized version of the Brier score, the scaled Brier. Computer simulations are performed in order to study the sensitivity of these measures to performance change when a new marker is added to a baseline model. When the discrimination power of the added marker is concentrated in the gray zone of the baseline model, the AUC and the Gini show minimal performance improvements. The Pietra and the scaled Brier show more significant improvements in the same situation, comparatively. The Pietra and the scaled Brier indices are therefore recommended for prediction model performance measurement, in light of their ease of interpretation, clinical relevance and sensitivity to gray-zone resolving markers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponential smoothing), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The data obtained from 2005 to 2011 and in 2012 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The accuracy of the statistical models in forecasting future epidemic disease proved their effectiveness in epidemiological surveillance. Although the comparisons found that no single method is completely superior to the others, the present study indeed highlighted that the SVMs outperforms the ARIMA model and decomposition methods in most cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: It is known that experience of a previous crash is related to incidence of future crashes in a cohort of New Zealand cyclists. This paper investigated if the strength of such association differed by crash involvement propensity and by the need for medical care in the previous crash. Methods: The Taupo Bicycle Study involved 2590 adult cyclists recruited in 2006 and followed over a median period of 4.6 years through linkage to four national databases. The crash involvement propensity was estimated using propensity scores based on the participants' demographic, cycling and residential characteristics. Cox regression modelling for repeated events was performed with multivariate and propensity score adjustments. Analyses were then stratified by quintiles of the propensity score. Results: A total of 801 (31.0%) participants reported having experienced at least one bicycle crash in the twelve months prior to the baseline survey. They had a higher risk of experiencing crash events during follow-up (hazard ratio (HR): 1.43; 95% CI: 1.28, 1.60) but in the stratified analysis, this association was significant only in the highest two quintiles of the propensity score where the likelihood of having experienced a crash was more than 33%. The association was stronger for previous crashes that had received medical care (HR 1.63; 95% CI: 1.41, 1.88) compared to those that had not (HR 1.30; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.49). Conclusions: Previous crash experience increased the risk of future crash involvement in high-risk cyclists and the association was stronger for previous crashes attended medically. What distinguishes the high risk group warrants closer investigation, and the findings indicate also that health service providers could play an important role in prevention of bicycle crash injuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is rising in middle income countries. Population based strategies to reduce specific CHD risk factors have an important role to play in reducing overall CHD mortality. Reducing dietary salt consumption is a potentially cost-effective way to reduce CHD events. This paper presents an economic evaluation of population based salt reduction policies in Tunisia, Syria, Palestine and Turkey. Methods and Findings: Three policies to reduce dietary salt intake were evaluated: a health promotion campaign, labelling of food packaging and mandatory reformulation of salt content in processed food. These were evaluated separately and in combination. Estimates of the effectiveness of salt reduction on blood pressure were based on a literature review. The reduction in mortality was estimated using the IMPACT CHD model specific to that country. Cumulative population health effects were quantified as life years gained (LYG) over a 10 year time frame. The costs of each policy were estimated using evidence from comparable policies and expert opinion including public sector costs and costs to the food industry. Health care costs associated with CHDs were estimated using standardized unit costs. The total cost of implementing each policy was compared against the current baseline (no policy). All costs were calculated using 2010 PPP exchange rates. In all four countries most policies were cost saving compared with the baseline. The combination of all three policies (reducing salt consumption by 30%) resulted in estimated cost savings of $235,000,000 and 6455 LYG in Tunisia; $39,000,000 and 31674 LYG in Syria; $6,000,000 and 2682 LYG in Palestine and $1,3000,000,000 and 378439 LYG in Turkey. Conclusion: Decreasing dietary salt intake will reduce coronary heart disease deaths in the four countries. A comprehensive strategy of health education and food industry actions to label and reduce salt content would save both money and lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaria prevalence remains high in many African countries despite massive scaling-up of insecticide treated nets (ITN) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). This paper evaluates the protective effect of pyrethroid IRS and ITNs in relation to risk factors for malaria based on a study conducted in North-West Tanzania, where IRS has been conducted since 2007 and universal coverage of ITNs has been carried out recently. In 2011 community-based cross-sectional surveys were conducted in the two main malaria transmission periods that occur after the short and long rainy seasons. These included 5,152 and 4,325 children aged 0.5–14 years, respectively. Data on IRS and ITN coverage, household demographics and socio-economic status were collected using an adapted version of the Malaria Indicator Survey. Children were screened for malaria by rapid diagnostic test. In the second survey, haemoglobin density was measured and filter paper blood spots were collected to determine age-specific sero-prevalence in each community surveyed. Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in children 0.5–14 years old was 9.3% (95%CI:5.9–14.5) and 22.8% (95%CI:17.3–29.4) in the two surveys. Risk factors for infection after the short rains included households not being sprayed (OR = 0.39; 95%CI:0.20–0.75); low community net ownership (OR = 0.45; 95%CI:0.21–0.95); and low community SES (least poor vs. poorest tertile: OR = 0.13, 95%CI:0.05–0.34). Risk factors after the long rains included household poverty (per quintile increase: OR = 0.89; 95%CI:0.82–0.97) and community poverty (least poor vs. poorest tertile: OR = 0.26, 95%CI:0.15–0.44); household IRS or high community ITN ownership were not protective. Despite high IRS coverage and equitable LLIN distribution, poverty was an important risk factor for malaria suggesting it could be beneficial to target additional malaria control activities to poor households and communities. High malaria prevalence in some clusters and the limited protection given by pyrethroid IRS and LLINs suggest that it may be necessary to enhance established vector control activities and consider additional interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To determine prevalence and incidence of bacterial vaginosis (BV) and risk factors in young sexually-active Australian women. Methods: 1093 women aged 16–25 years were recruited from primary-care clinics. Participants completed 3-monthly questionnaires and self-collected vaginal smears 6-monthly for 12-months. The primary endpoint was a Nugent Score = 7–10 (BV) and the secondary endpoint was a NS = 4–10 (abnormal flora [AF]). BV and AF prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were derived, and adjusted odds ratios (AOR) calculated to explore epidemiological associations with prevalent BV and AF. Proportional-hazards regression models were used to examine factors associated with incident BV and AF. Results: At baseline 129 women had BV [11.8% (95%CI: 9.4–14.2)] and 188 AF (17.2%; 15.1–19.5). Prevalent BV was associated with having a recent female partner [AOR = 2.1; 1.0–4.4] and lack of tertiary-education [AOR = 1.9; 1.2–3.0]; use of an oestrogen-containing contraceptive (OCC) was associated with reduced risk [AOR = 0.6; 0.4–0.9]. Prevalent AF was associated with the same factors, and additionally with >5 male partners (MSP) in 12-months [AOR = 1.8; 1.2–2.5)], and detection of C.trachomatis or M.genitalium [AOR = 2.1; 1.0–4.5]. There were 82 cases of incident BV (9.4%;7.7–11.7/100 person-years) and 129 with incident AF (14.8%; 12.5–17.6/100 person-years). Incident BV and AF were associated with a new MSP [adjusted rate ratio (ARR) = 1.5; 1.1–2.2 and ARR = 1.5; 1.1–2.0], respectively. OCC-use was associated with reduced risk of incident AF [ARR = 0.7; 0.5–1.0]. Conclusion: This paper presents BV and AF prevalence and incidence estimates from a large prospective cohort of young Australian women predominantly recruited from primary-care clinics. These data support the concept that sexual activity is strongly associated with the development of BV and AF and that use of an OCC is associated with reduced risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Vitamin B12 deficiency is prevalent in many countries of origin of refugees. Using a threshold of 5% above which a prevalence of low Vitamin B12 is indicative of a population health problem, we hypothesised that Vitamin B12 deficiency exceeds this threshold among newly-arrived refugees resettling in Australia, and is higher among women due to their increased risk of food insecurity. This paper reports Vitamin B12 levels in a large cohort of newly arrived refugees in five Australian states and territories. Methods: In a cross-sectional descriptive study, we collected Vitamin B12, folate and haematological indices on all refugees (n = 916; response rate 94% of eligible population) who had been in Australia for less than one year, and attended one of the collaborating health services between July 2010 and July 2011. Results: 16.5% of participants had Vitamin B12 deficiency (<150 pmol/L). One-third of participants from Iran and Bhutan, and one-quarter of participants from Afghanistan had Vitamin B12 deficiency. Contrary to our hypothesis, low Vitamin B12 levels were more prevalent in males than females. A higher prevalence of low Vitamin B12 was also reported in older age groups in some countries. The sensitivity of macrocytosis in detecting Vitamin B12 deficiency was only 4.6%. Conclusion: Vitamin B12 deficiency is an important population health issue in newly-arrived refugees from many countries. All newly-arrived refugees should be tested for Vitamin B12 deficiency. Ongoing research should investigate causes, treatment, and ways to mitigate food insecurity, and the contribution of such measures to enhancing the health of the refugee communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although the relationship between allergy and cancer has been investigated extensively, the role of allergy in head and neck cancer (HNC) appears less consistent. It is not clear whether allergies can independently influence the risk of HNC in the presence of known strong environmental risk factors, including consumption of alcohol, betel quid, and cigarette. Methods: The current paper reports results from: 1) an original hospital-based case-control study, which included 252 incident cases of HNC and 236 controls frequency-matched to cases on sex and age; and 2) a meta-analysis combining the results of the current case-control study and 13 previously published studies (9 cohort studies with 727,569 subjects and 550 HNC outcomes and 5 case-control studies with 4,017 HNC cases and 10,928 controls). Results: In the original case-control study, we observed a strong inverse association between allergies and HNC [odds ratio = 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.27–0.62]. The meta-analysis also indicated a statistically significant inverse association between HNC and allergies [meta-relative risk (RR) = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63–0.91], particularly strong for allergic rhinitis (meta-RR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.40–0.76). In addition, the inverse association between allergies and HNC was observed only among men (meta-RR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.54–0.84) but not among women (meta-RR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.81–1.18). Conclusions: These findings suggest that immunity plays an influential role in the risk of HNC. Future studies investigating immune biomarkers, including cytokine profiles and genetic polymorphisms, are warranted to further delineate the relationship between allergies and HNC. Understanding the relationship between allergies and HNC may help devise effective strategies to reduce and treat HNC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: India, with a population of more than 1.21 billion, has the highest maternal mortality in the world (estimated to be 56000 in 2010); and adolescent (aged 15–19) mortality shares 9% of total maternal deaths. Addressing the maternity care needs of adolescents may have considerable ramifications for achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG)–5. This paper assesses the socioeconomic differentials in accessing full antenatal care and professional attendance at delivery by adolescent mothers (aged 15–19) in India during 1990–2006. Methods and Findings: Data from three rounds of the National Family Health Survey of India conducted during 1992–93, 1998–99, and 2005–06 were analyzed. The Cochran-Armitage and Chi-squared test for linear and non-linear time trends were applied, respectively, to understand the trend in the proportion of adolescent mothers utilizing select maternity care services during 1990–2006. Using pooled multivariate logistic regression models, the probability of select maternal healthcare utilization among women by key socioeconomic characteristics was appraised. After adjusting for potential socio-demographic and economic characteristics, the likelihood of adolescents accessing full antenatal care increased by only 4% from 1990 to 2006. However, the probability of adolescent women availing themselves of professional attendance at delivery increased by 79% during the same period. The study also highlights the desolate disparities in maternity care services among adolescents across the most and the least favoured groups. Conclusion: Maternal care interventions in India need focused programs for rural, uneducated, poor adolescent women so that they can avail themselves of measures to delay child bearing, and for better antenatal consultation and delivery care in case of pregnancy. This study strongly advocates the promotion of a comprehensive ‘adolescent scheme’ along the lines of ‘Continuum of Maternal, Newborn and Child health Care’ to address the unmet need of reproductive and maternal healthcare services among adolescent women in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Excess mortality from diseases and medical conditions (natural death) in persons with psychiatric disorders has been extensively reported. Even in the Nordic countries with well-developed welfare systems, register based studies find evidence of an excess mortality. In recent years, cardiac mortality and death by diseases of the circulatory system has seen a decline in all the Nordic countries, but a recent paper indicates that women and men in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, who had been hospitalised for a psychotic disorder, had a two to three-fold increased risk of dying from a cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study was to compare the mortality by diseases of the circulatory system among patients with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia in the three Nordic countries Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. Furthermore, the aim was to examine and compare life expectancy among these patients. Cause specific Standardized Mortality Rates (SMRs) were calculated for each specific subgroup of mortality. Life expectancy was calculated using Wiesler’s method. Results: The SMR for bipolar disorder for diseases of the circulatory system was approximately 2 in all countries and both sexes. SMR was slightly higher for people with schizophrenia for both genders and in all countries, except for men in Denmark. Overall life expectancy was much lower among persons with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia, with life expectancy being from 11 to 20 years shorter. Conclusion: Our data show that persons in the Nordic countries with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder have a substantially reduced life expectancy. An evaluation of the reasons for these increased mortality rates should be prioritized when planning healthcare in the coming years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Easily identifiable risk factors including: obesity and ethnicity at high risk of diabetes are commonly used to indicate which women should be offered the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) to diagnose gestational diabetes (GDM). Evidence regarding these risk factors is limited however. We conducted a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis and individual participant data (IPD) analysis to evaluate the performance of risk factors in identifying women with GDM. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, Medline in Process, Embase, Maternity and Infant Care and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) up to August 2016 and conducted additional reference checking. We included observational, cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies reporting the performance characteristics of risk factors used to identify women at high risk of GDM. We had access to IPD from the Born in Bradford and Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy cohorts, all pregnant women in the two cohorts with data on risk factors and OGTT results were included. Results: Twenty nine published studies with 211,698 women for the SR and a further 14,103 women from two birth cohorts (Born in Bradford and the Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy study) for the IPD analysis were included. Six studies assessed the screening performance of guidelines; six examined combinations of risk factors; eight evaluated the number of risk factors and nine examined prediction models or scores. Meta-analysis using data from published studies suggests that irrespective of the method used, risk factors do not identify women with GDM well. Using IPD and combining risk factors to produce the highest sensitivities, results in low specificities (and so higher false positives). Strategies that use the risk factors of age (>25 or >30) and BMI (>25 or 30) perform as well as other strategies with additional risk factors included. Conclusions: Risk factor screening methods are poor predictors of which pregnant women will be diagnosed with GDM. A simple approach of offering an OGTT to women 25 years or older and/or with a BMI of 25kg/m2 or more is as good as more complex risk prediction models. Research to identify more accurate (bio)markers is needed. Systematic Review Registration: PROSPERO CRD42013004608 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Though insurance claims data are useful for researching asthma, they have important limitations, such as a diagnostic inaccuracy and a lack of clinical information. To overcome these drawbacks, we used the novel method by merging the clinical data from our asthma cohort with the National Health Insurance (NHI) claims data. Methods and Results: Longitudinal analysis of asthma-related healthcare use from the NHI claims database, merged with data of 736 patients registered in a Korean asthma cohort, was conducted for three consecutive years from registration of the cohort. Asthma-related asthma healthcare referred to outpatient and emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and the use of systemic corticosteroids. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate risk factors for asthma-related healthcare. Over three years after enrollment, many patients changed from tertiary to primary/secondary hospitals with a lack of maintenance of inhaled corticosteroid-based controllers. An independent risk factor for emergency visits was a previous history of asthma exacerbation. In hospitalizations, old age and Asthma Control Test (ACT) score variability were independent risk factors. An independent risk factor for per person cumulative duration of systemic corticosteroids was the FEV1 (Forced expiratory volume in one second)%. The use of systemic corticosteroids was independently associated with being female, the FEV1%, and ACT score variability. Conclusion: We found that old age, being female, long-standing asthma, a low FEV1%, asthma brittleness, asthma drug compliance, and a history of asthma exacerbation were independent risk factors for increased asthma-related healthcare use in Korea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The results of the network scale-up (NSU) method in estimating the size of key populations for HIV might be biased if the recruited subjects are not fully informed of the risky behaviors of people in their networks (low visibility), or key populations have a smaller social network (low popularity). We aimed to measure such biases in the size estimation of people who inject drugs (PWIDs), and female sex workers (FSWs) in Iran. Methods: We interviewed 163 male PWIDs, 76 FSWs (known as egos) and 600 subjects from the general population. We selected twenty first-names (ten males and ten females) and asked the study subjects separately how many people they knew with one of these names (known as alters). Visibility Factor (VF) was defined as the percentage of FSW or PWID alters that were aware of their behavior. In addition, the popularity factor (PF) was calculated by dividing the number of alters reported by FSWs and PWIDs into that of the general population. The 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were calculated using bootstrap technique. Results: The VF was estimated at 54% (95% UI: 52%–56%) for PWID and 45% (95% UI: 42%– 48%) for FSW. The VF among the peer alters was significantly higher than non-peer ones. The PF for PWID and FSW was 69% (95% UI: 66%–73%) and 77% (95% UI: 72%–83%), respectively. The cross-validation and name splitting analysis showed that our estimates were not influenced by any single name. Conclusions: Both correction factors, particularly VF were far from one, and NSU results without correction, could lead to up to 4 times underestimation of the sizes. Therefore, applying these coefficients is necessary in NSU projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In clinical practice, GPs appeared to have an internalized concept of “vulnerability.” This study investigates the variability between general practitioners (GPs) in their vulnerability-assessment of older persons. Methods: Seventy-seven GPs categorized their 75-plus patients (n = 11392) into non-vulnerable, possibly vulnerable, and vulnerable patients. GPs personal and practice characteristics were collected. From a sample of 2828 patients the following domains were recorded: sociodemographic, functional [instrumental activities in daily living (IADL), basic activities in daily living (BADL)], somatic (number of diseases, polypharmacy), psychological (Mini-Mental State Examination, 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale; GDS-15) and social (De Jong-Gierveld Loneliness Scale; DJG). Variability in GPs' assessment of vulnerability was tested with mixed effects logistic regression. P-values for variability (pvar) were calculated by the log-likelihood ratio test. Results: Participating GPs assessed the vulnerability of 10,361 patients. The median percentage of vulnerable patients was 32.0% (IQR 19.5 to 40.1%). From the somatic and psychological domains, GPs uniformly took into account the patient characteristics ‘total number of diseases’ (OR 1.7, 90% range  = 0, pvar = 1), ‘polypharmacy’ (OR 2.3, 90% range  = 0, pvar = 1) and ‘GDS-15’ (OR 1.6, 90% range  = 0, pvar = 1). GPs vary in the way they assessed their patients' vulnerability in the functional domain (IADL: median OR 2.8, 90% range 1.6, pvar<0.001, BADL: median OR 2.4, 90% range 2.9, pvar<0.001) and the social domain (DJG: median OR 1.2, 90% range  = 1.2, pvar<0.001). Conclusions: GPs seem to share a medical concept of vulnerability, since they take somatic and psychological characteristics uniformly into account in the vulnerability-assessment of older persons. In the functional and social domains, however, variability was found. Vulnerability assessment by GPs might be a promising instrument to select older people for geriatric care if more uniformity could be achieved. Trial Registration: Netherlands Trial Register [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent studies suggested that insulin glargine use could be associated with increased risk of cancer. We compared the incidence of cancer in new users of glargine versus new users of NPH in a longitudinal clinical cohort with diabetes for up to 6 years. Methods and Findings: From all patients who had been regularly followed at Massachusetts General Hospital from 1/01/2005 to 12/31/2010, 3,680 patients who had a medication record for glargine or NPH usage were obtained from the electronic medical record (EMR). From those we selected 539 new glargine users (age: 60.1±13.6 years, BMI: 32.7±7.5 kg/m2) and 343 new NPH users (61.5±14.1 years, 32.7±8.3 kg/m2) who had no prevalent cancer during 19 months prior to glargine or NPH initiation. All incident cancer cases were ascertained from the EMR requiring at least 2 ICD-9 codes within a 2 month period. Insulin exposure time and cumulative dose were validated. The statistical analysis compared the rates of cancer in new glargine vs. new NPH users while on treatment, adjusted for the propensity to receive one or the other insulin. There were 26 and 28 new cancer cases in new glargine and new NPH users for 1559 and 1126 person-years follow-up, respectively. There were no differences in the propensity-adjusted clinical characteristics between groups. The adjusted hazard ratio for the cancer incidence comparing glargine vs. NPH use was 0.65 (95% CI: 0.36–1.19). Conclusions: Insulin glargine is not associated with development of cancers when compared with NPH in this longitudinal and carefully retrieved EMR data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of risk scores (Framingham, Assign and QRISK2) in predicting high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals rather than populations. Methods and findings: This study included 1.8 million persons without CVD and prior statin prescribing using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. This contains electronic medical records of the general population registered with a UK general practice. Individual CVD risks were estimated using competing risk regression models. Individual differences in the 10-year CVD risks as predicted by risk scores and competing risk models were estimated; the population was divided into 20 subgroups based on predicted risk. CVD outcomes occurred in 69,870 persons. In the subgroup with lowest risks, risk predictions by QRISK2 were similar to individual risks predicted using our competing risk model (99.9% of people had differences of less than 2%); in the subgroup with highest risks, risk predictions varied greatly (only 13.3% of people had differences of less than 2%). Larger deviations between QRISK2 and our individual predicted risks occurred with calendar year, different ethnicities, diabetes mellitus and number of records for medical events in the electronic health records in the year before the index date. A QRISK2 estimate of low 10-year CVD risk (<15%) was confirmed by Framingham, ASSIGN and our individual predicted risks in 89.8% while an estimate of high 10-year CVD risk (≥20%) was confirmed in only 48.6% of people. The majority of cases occurred in people who had predicted 10-year CVD risk of less than 20%. Conclusions: Application of existing CVD risk scores may result in considerable misclassification of high risk status. Current practice to use a constant threshold level for intervention for all patients, together with the use of different scoring methods, may inadvertently create an arbitrary classification of high CVD risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the spatial characteristics of dengue fever (DF) incidences is crucial for governmental agencies to implement effective disease control strategies. We investigated the associations between environmental and socioeconomic factors and DF geographic distribution, are proposed a probabilistic risk assessment approach that uses threshold-based quantile regression to identify the significant risk factors for DF transmission and estimate the spatial distribution of DF risk regarding full probability distributions. To interpret risk, return period was also included to characterize the frequency pattern of DF geographic occurrences. The study area included old Kaohsiung City and Fongshan District, two areas in Taiwan that have been affected by severe DF infections in recent decades. Results indicated that water-related facilities, including canals and ditches, and various types of residential area, as well as the interactions between them, were significant factors that elevated DF risk. By contrast, the increase of per capita income and its associated interactions with residential areas mitigated the DF risk in the study area. Nonlinear associations between these factors and DF risk were present in various quantiles, implying that water-related factors characterized the underlying spatial patterns of DF, and high-density residential areas indicated the potential for high DF incidence (e.g., clustered infections). The spatial distributions of DF risks were assessed in terms of three distinct map presentations: expected incidence rates, incidence rates in various return periods, and return periods at distinct incidence rates. These probability-based spatial risk maps exhibited distinct DF risks associated with environmental factors, expressed as various DF magnitudes and occurrence probabilities across Kaohsiung, and can serve as a reference for local governmental agencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: 1) To synthesize the current observational evidence for the association between sedentary behavior and health outcomes using information from systematic reviews. 2) To assess the methodological quality of the systematic reviews found. Methodology/Principal Findings: Medline; Excerpta Medica (Embase); PsycINFO; and Web of Science were searched for reviews published up to September 2013. Additional publications were provided by Sedentary Behaviour Research Network members. The methodological quality of the systematic reviews was evaluated using recommended standard criteria from AMSTAR. For each review, improper use of causal language in the description of their main results/conclusion was evaluated. Altogether, 1,044 review titles were identified, 144 were read in their entirety, and 27 were included. Based on the systematic reviews with the best methodological quality, we found in children and adolescents, strong evidence of a relationship between time spent in sedentary behavior and obesity. Moreover, moderate evidence was observed for blood pressure and total cholesterol, self-esteem, social behavior problems, physical fitness and academic achievement. In adults, we found strong evidence of a relationship between sedentary behavior and all-cause mortality, fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome. In addition, there is moderate evidence for incidence rates of ovarian, colon and endometrial cancers. Conclusions: This overview based on the best available systematics reviews, shows that sedentary behavior may be an important determinant of health, independently of physical activity. However, the relationship is complex because it depends on the type of sedentary behavior and the age group studied. The relationship between sedentary behavior and many health outcomes remains uncertain; thus, further studies are warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Since 2007, Guatemala integrated STI clinical service with an HIV prevention model into four existing public health clinics to prevent HIV infection, known as the VICITS strategy. We present the first assessment of VICITS scale-up, retention, HIV and STI prevalence trends, and risk factors associated with HIV infection among Female Sex Workers (FSW) attending VICITS clinics in Guatemala. Methods: Demographic, behavioral and clinical data were collected using a standardized form. Data was analyzed by year and health center. HIV and STI prevalence were estimated from routine visits. Retention was estimated as the percent of new users attending VICITS clinics who returned for at least one follow-up visit to any VICITS clinic within 12 months. Separate multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to investigate factors associated with HIV infection and program retention. Results: During 2007–2011 5,682 FSW visited a VICITS clinic for the first-time. HIV prevalence varied from 0.4% to 5.8%, and chlamydia prevalence from 0% to 14.3%, across sites. Attending the Puerto Barrios clinic, having a current syphilis infection, working primarily on the street, and using the telephone or internet to contact clients were associated with HIV infection. The number of FSW accessing VICITS annually increased from 556 to 2,557 (361%) during the period. In 2011 retention varied across locations from 7.7% to 42.7%. Factors negatively impacting retention included current HIV diagnosis, having practiced sex work in another country, being born in Honduras, and attending Marco Antonio Foundation or Quetzaltenango clinic sites. Systematic time trends did not emerge, however 2008 and 2010 were characterized by reduced retention. Conclusions: Our data show local differences in HIV prevalence and clinic attendance that can be used to prioritize prevention activities targeting FSW in Guatemala. VICITS achieved rapid scale-up; however, a better understanding of the causes of low return rates is urgently needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase (TIMP2) is involved in the regulation of matrix metalloproteinase 2 (MMP2) and shown to implicate in cancer development and progression. The results from the published studies based on the association between TIMP2 -418 G>C polymorphism and cancer risk are inconsistent. In this meta-analysis, we aimed to evaluate the potential association between TIMP2 -418 G>C polymorphism and cancer risk. Methodology: We searched PubMed (Medline) and EMBASE web databases to cover all studies based on relationship of TIMP2 -418 G>C polymorphism and risk of cancer until October 2013. The meta-analysis was performed for selected case-control studies and pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated for all genetic models. Results: A total of 2225 cancer cases and 2532 controls were included from ten eligible case-control studies. Results from overall pooled analysis suggested no evidence of significant risk between TIMP2 -418 G>C polymorphism and cancer risk in any of the genetic models, such as, allele (C vs. G: OR = 1.293, 95% CI = 0.882 to 1.894, p = 0.188), homozygous (CC vs. GG: OR = 0.940, 95% CI = 0.434 to 2.039, p = 0.876), heterozygous (GC vs. GG: OR = 1.397, 95% CI = 0.888 to 2.198, p = 0.148), dominant (CC+GC vs. GG: OR = 1.387, 95% CI = 0.880 to 2.187, p = 0.159) and recessive (CC vs. GG+GC: OR = 0.901, 95% CI = 0.442 to 1.838, p = 0.774) models. No evidence of publication bias was detected during the analysis. Conclusions: The present meta-analysis suggests that the TIMP2 -418 G>C polymorphism may not be involved in predisposing risk factor for cancer in overall population. However, future larger studies with group of populations are needed to analyze the possible correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous results from research on menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) and lung cancer survival have been mixed and most have not studied women who used estrogen therapy (ET) exclusively. We examined the associations between MHT use reported at baseline and lung cancer-specific mortality in the prospective California Teachers Study cohort. Among 727 postmenopausal women diagnosed with lung cancer from 1995 through 2007, 441 women died before January 1, 2008. Hazard Ratios (HR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) for lung-cancer-specific mortality were obtained by fitting multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models using age in days as the timescale. Among women who used ET exclusively, decreases in lung cancer mortality were observed (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.52–0.93). No association was observed for estrogen plus progestin therapy use. Among former users, shorter duration (<5 years) of exclusive ET use was associated with a decreased risk of lung cancer mortality (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.35–0.89), whereas among recent users, longer duration (>15 years) was associated with a decreased risk (HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.38–0.95). Smoking status modified the associations with deceases in lung cancer mortality observed only among current smokers. Exclusive ET use was associated with decreased lung cancer mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A comprehensive, HIV prevention programme (Projet Sida1/2/3) was implemented among female sex workers (FSWs) in Cotonou, Benin, in 1993 following which condom use among FSWs increased threefold between 1993 and 2008 while FSW HIV prevalence declined from 53.3% to 30.4%. Objective: Estimate the potential impact of the intervention on HIV prevalence/incidence in FSWs, clients and the general population in Cotonou, Benin. Methods and Findings: A transmission dynamics model parameterised with setting-specific bio-behavioural data was used within a Bayesian framework to fit the model and simulate HIV transmission in the high and low-risk population of Cotonou and to estimate HIV incidence and infections averted by SIDA1/2/3. Our model results suggest that prior to SIDA1/2/3 commercial sex had contributed directly or indirectly to 93% (84–98%) of all cumulative infections and that the observed decline in FSWs HIV prevalence was more consistent with the self-reported post-intervention increase in condom use by FSWs than a counterfactual assuming no change in condom use after 1993 (CF-1). Compared to the counterfactual (CF-1), the increase in condom use may have prevented 62% (52–71%) of new HIV infections among FSWs between 1993 and 2008 and 33% (20–46%) in the overall population. Conclusions: Our analysis provides plausible evidence that the post-intervention increase in condom use during commercial sex significantly reduced HIV prevalence and incidence among FSWs and general population. Sex worker interventions can be effective even in medium HIV prevalence epidemics and need to be sustained over the long-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate the records of ambulatory medical care from patients predating the diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) using nationwide, population-based claims data. Methods: The frequencies and costs of ambulatory medical care utilization in 337 newly-diagnosed SLE cases between 2004 and 2010, identified from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, were compared with 1,348 controls who were frequency matched for sex, age, and the catastrophic illness certificate application year of the cases. Results: Patients with SLE had a median frequency of ambulatory medical care utilization compared with controls one year prior to the index date (22 vs. 2, P<0.001). The differences were significant throughout all eight annual periods. Similarly, the inflation-adjusted costs of ambulatory medical care utilization in patients with SLE increased annually over the study period, from a median of US$18 eight years prior to the index date to US$680 one year prior to the index date. Diseases of the respiratory system (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification [ICD-9-CM] codes 460–519), digestive system (ICD-9-CM codes 520–579), musculoskeletal system and connective tissue (ICD-9-CM codes 710–739, excluding 710.0), and skin and subcutaneous tissue (ICD-9-CM codes 680–709) were the top four common causes of visits in the 0.5 to 2 year period preceding the index date and percentages of SLE patients suffered from these disorders increased progressively over the study period. Only 56.4% of the patients with SLE had consulted a rheumatologist and most of the serology tests were done within one year predating the index date. Conclusions: Increased frequencies and costs of ambulatory care utilization among Taiwanese patients with SLE occurred several years predating their definitive SLE diagnosis. When multisystemic disorders are presented in young female patients, the possibility of SLE should be considered and screened with tools such as the antinuclear antibody test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: An HIV vaccine could substantially impact the epidemic. However, risk compensation (RC), or post-vaccination increase in risk behavior, could present a major challenge. The methodology used in previous studies of risk compensation has been almost exclusively individual-level in focus, and has not explored how increased risk behavior could affect the connectivity of risk networks. This study examined the impact of anticipated HIV vaccine-related RC on the structure of high-risk drug users' sexual and injection risk network. Methods: A sample of 433 rural drug users in the US provided data on their risk relationships (i.e., those involving recent unprotected sex and/or injection equipment sharing). Dyad-specific data were collected on likelihood of increasing/initiating risk behavior if they, their partner, or they and their partner received an HIV vaccine. Using these data and social network analysis, a "post-vaccination network" was constructed and compared to the current network on measures relevant to HIV transmission, including network size, cohesiveness (e.g., diameter, component structure, density), and centrality. Results: Participants reported 488 risk relationships. Few reported an intention to decrease condom use or increase equipment sharing (4% and 1%, respectively). RC intent was reported in 30 existing risk relationships and vaccination was anticipated to elicit the formation of five new relationships. RC resulted in a 5% increase in risk network size (n = 142 to n = 149) and a significant increase in network density. The initiation of risk relationships resulted in the connection of otherwise disconnected network components, with the largest doubling in size from five to ten. Conclusions: This study demonstrates a new methodological approach to studying RC and reveals that behavior change following HIV vaccination could potentially impact risk network connectivity. These data will be valuable in parameterizing future network models that can determine if network-level change precipitated by RC would appreciably impact the vaccine's population-level effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) level has been associated with an increased risk of several chronic diseases. Our aim was to determine lifestyle and clinical factors that are associated with 25OHD level and to investigate connection of 25OHD level with metabolic and cardiovascular disease markers. Design: In total, 2868 Finnish men and women aged 45–74 years participated in FIN-D2D population-based health survey in 2007. Participants that had a serum sample available (98.4%; n = 2822) were included in this study. 25OHD was measured with chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay method. Results: The mean 25OHD level was 58.2 nmol/l in men (n = 1348) and 57.1 nmol/l in women (n = 1474). Mean 25OHD level was lower in the younger age groups than in the older ones (p<0.0001 both in men and women). This study confirmed that low physical activity (p<0.0001 both in men and women), smoking (p = 0.0002 in men and p = 0.03 in women) and high BMI (p<0.0001 in women) are factors that independently associate with low 25OHD level. Of the metabolic and cardiovascular disease markers high triglyceride concentration (p = 0.02 in men and p = 0.001 in women) and high apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A1 ratio (p = 0.04 in men and p = 0.03 in women) were independently associated with low 25OHD level. Conclusions: Higher age did not predict lower 25OHD level in this study population of aged 45–74 years which may derive from a healthy life-style of “active pensioners”. Low physical activity and smoking came up as independent lifestyle factors associated with low 25OHD level. Defining the molecular mechanisms behind the associations of 25OHD with low physical activity and smoking are important objective in future studies. The association of 25OHD with BMI, high triglyceride concentration and apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A1 ratio may be related to the role of vitamin D in inflammation, but more detailed studies are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The impact of non-communicable diseases on tuberculosis incidence has received significant attention. It has been suggested that the risk of tuberculosis is higher among subjects with diabetes and these subjects also has poor TB treatment outcomes.This study was aimed at assessing the socio-demographic and clinical factors that may influence different outcome of TB in patients with DM (TB-DM) identified in the Brazilian national database from 2001 to 2011. Methods: TB-DM cases reported in the Brazilian information system were identified and compared.Covariates associated with the outcomes of interest (cure, default, deaths, and development of TB MDR) were included in a hierarchical regression model. Results: TB-DM cases increased from 380/100,000/year in 2001 to 6,150/100,000/year in 2011. Some of the main associations found are pointed. The odds of default was higher among those in the age group 20–39 years (OR = 2.07, 95%CI 1.32–3.24); alcoholics (OR = 2.17, 95%CI 1.86–2.54), and HIV/AIDS (OR = 2.16, 95%CI 1.70–2.74);positive monitoring smear (OR = 1.94, 95%CI 1.55–2.43); prior default (OR = 5.41, 95%CI 4.47–6.54), and unknown type of treatment (OR = 3.33, 95%CI 1.54–7.22). The odds of death was greater for subjects ≥60 years old (OR = 2.74, 95%CI 1.74–4.29); institutionalized in shelter (OR = 2.69, 95%CI 1.07–6.77); alcoholics (OR = 2.70, 95%CI 2.27–3.22); HIV/AIDS (OR = 2.87, 95%CI 2.13–3.86); pulmonary+extrapulmonary TB (OR = 2.49, 95%CI 1.79–3.46); with unknown type of treatment (OR = 14.12, 95%CI 7.04–28.32).Development of MDR TB was more related to relapse (OR = 9.60, 95%CI 6.07–15.14);previous default (OR = 17.13, 95%CI 9.58–30.63); and transfer of treatment center (OR = 7.87, 95%CI 4.74–13.07). Conclusions: Older subjects and those with comorbidities and with a previous treatment of TB had poorest outcomes. TB control program in Brazil will need to expand efforts to focus on treatment of TB-DM patients to improve their cure rates in order to achieve the goals of tuberculosis elimination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The epidemiological profile and trends of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Peru have not been well-defined, though this is a necessary step to address this significant public health problem in Peru. The objective of this study was to determine trends of incidence, mortality, and fatality of RTIs in Peru during 1973–2008, as well as their relationship to population trends such as economic growth. Methods and Findings: Secondary aggregated databases were used to estimate incidence, mortality and fatality rate ratios (IRRs) of RTIs. These estimates were standardized to age groups and sex of the 2008 Peruvian population. Negative binomial regression and cubic spline curves were used for multivariable analysis. During the 35-year period there were 952,668 road traffic victims, injured or killed. The adjusted yearly incidence of RTIs increased by 3.59 (95% CI 2.43–5.31) on average. We did not observe any significant trends in the yearly mortality rate. The total adjusted yearly fatality rate decreased by 0.26 (95% CI 0.15–0.43), while among adults the fatality rate increased by 1.25 (95% CI 1.09–1.43). Models fitted with splines suggest that the incidence follows a bimodal curve and closely followed trends in the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita Conclusions: The significant increasing incidence of RTIs in Peru affirms their growing threat to public health. A substantial improvement of information systems for RTIs is needed to create a more accurate epidemiologic profile of RTIs in Peru. This approach can be of use in other similar low and middle-income settings to inform about the local challenges posed by RTIs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large body of research has shown that health is influenced by disadvantaged living conditions, including both personal and neighborhood conditions. Little is however known to what degree the health impact of different forms of disadvantage differ along the life course. The present study aims to examine when, during the life course, neighborhood and individual disadvantages relate to functional somatic symptoms. Participants (n = 992) came from The Northern Swedish Cohort and followed from age 16, 21, 30 until 42 years. Functional somatic symptoms, socioeconomic disadvantage, and social and material adversity were measured through questionnaires and linked to register data on neighborhood disadvantage. Data was analyzed with longitudinal and cross-sectional multilevel models. Results showed that neighborhood disadvantage, social and material adversity and gender all contributed independently to overall levels of symptoms across the life course. Cross-sectional analyses also suggested that the impact of disadvantage differed between life course periods; neighborhood disadvantage was most important in young adulthood, and the relative importance of material versus social adversity increased as participants grew older. In summary, the study suggests that disadvantages from different contextual sources may affect functional somatic health across the life course, but also through life course specific patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Increased postprandial lipid (PPL) response to dietary fat intake is a heritable risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Variability in postprandial lipids results from the complex interplay of dietary and genetic factors. We hypothesized that detailed lipid profiles (eg, sterols and fatty acids) may help elucidate specific genetic and dietary pathways contributing to the PPL response. Methods and Results: We used gas chromatography mass spectrometry to quantify the change in plasma concentration of 35 fatty acids and 11 sterols between fasting and 3.5 hours after the consumption of a high-fat meal (PPL challenge) among 40 participants from the GOLDN study. Correlations between sterols, fatty acids and clinical measures were calculated. Mixed linear regression was used to evaluate associations between lipidomic profiles and genomic markers including single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and methylation markers derived from the Affymetrix 6.0 array and the Illumina Methyl450 array, respectively. After the PPL challenge, fatty acids increased as well as sterols associated with cholesterol absorption, while sterols associated with cholesterol synthesis decreased. PPL saturated fatty acids strongly correlated with triglycerides, very low-density lipoprotein, and chylomicrons. Two SNPs (rs12247017 and rs12240292) in the sorbin and SH3 domain containing 1 (SORBS1) gene were associated with b-Sitosterol after correction for multiple testing (P≤4.5*10−10). SORBS1 has been linked to obesity and insulin signaling. No other markers reached the genome-wide significance threshold, yet several other biologically relevant loci are highlighted (eg, PRIC285, a co-activator of PPARa). Conclusions: Integration of lipidomic and genomic data has the potential to identify new biomarkers of CVD risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite evidence that neighbourhood conditions affect residents' health, no prospective studies of the association between neighbourhood socio-demographic factors and all-cause mortality have been conducted in non-Western societies. Thus, we examined the effects of areal deprivation and population density on all-cause mortality in Japan. Methods: We employed census and survival data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study, Cohort I (n = 37,455), consisting of middle-aged residents (40 to 59 years at the baseline in 1990) living in four public health centre districts. Data spanned between 1990 and 2010. A multilevel parametric proportional-hazard regression model was applied to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause mortality by two census-based areal variables —areal deprivation index and population density—as well as individualistic variables such as socioeconomic status and various risk factors. Results: We found that areal deprivation and population density had moderate associations with all-cause mortality at the neighbourhood level based on the survival data with 21 years of follow-ups. Even when controlling for individualistic socio-economic status and behavioural factors, the HRs of the two areal factors (using quartile categorical variables) significantly predicted mortality. Further, this analysis indicated an interaction effect of the two factors: areal deprivation prominently affects the health of residents in neighbourhoods with high population density. Conclusions: We confirmed that neighbourhood socio-demographic factors are significant predictors of all-cause death in Japanese non-metropolitan settings. Although further study is needed to clarify the cause-effect relationship of this association, the present findings suggest that health promotion policies should consider health disparities between neighbourhoods and possibly direct interventions towards reducing mortality in densely populated and highly deprived neighbourhoods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The evidence on alcohol use disorder among conflict-affected civilian populations remains extremely weak, despite a number of potential risk-factors. The aim of this study is to examine patterns of alcohol use disorder among conflict-affected persons in the Republic of Georgia. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 3600 randomly selected internally displaced persons (IDPs) and former IDPs. Two alcohol use disorder outcomes were measured: (i) having at least hazardous alcohol use (AUDIT score ≥8); (ii) episodic heavy drinking (consuming >60 grams of pure alcohol per drinking session at least once a week). Individual level demographic and socio-economic characteristics were also recorded, including mental disorders. Community level alcohol environment characteristics relating to alcohol availability, marketing and pricing were recorded in the respondents' communities and a factor analysis conducted to produce a summary alcohol environment factor score. Logistic regression analyses examined associations between individual and community level factors with the alcohol use disorder outcomes (among men only). Results: Of the total sample, 71% of men and 16% of women were current drinkers. Of the current drinkers (N = 1386), 28% of men and 1% of women were classified as having at least hazardous alcohol use; and 12% of men and 2% of women as episodic heavy drinkers. Individual characteristics significantly associated with both outcomes were age and experiencing a serious injury, while cumulative trauma events and depression were also associated with having at least hazardous alcohol use. For the community level analysis, a one unit increase in the alcohol environment factor was associated with a 1.27 fold increase in episodic heavy drinking among men (no significant association with hazardous alcohol use). Conclusion: The findings suggest potential synergies for treatment responses for alcohol use disorder and depression among conflict-affected populations in Georgia, as well as the need for stronger alcohol control policies in Georgia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The relationship between passive smoking exposure (PSE) and breast cancer risk is of major interest. Objective: To evaluate the relationship between PSE from partners and breast cancer risk stratified by hormone-receptor (HR) status in Chinese urban women population. Design: Hospital-based matched case control study. Setting: Chinese urban breast cancer patients without current or previous active smoking history in China Medical University 1st Hospital, Liaoning Province, China between Jan 2009 and Nov 2009. Patients: Each breast cancer patient was matched 1∶1 with healthy controls by gender and age (±2 years) from the same hospital. Measurements: The authors used unconditional logistic regression analyses to estimate odds ratio for women with PSE from partners and breast cancer risk. Results: 312 pairs were included in the study. Women who endured PSE had significantly increased risk of breast cancer (adjusted OR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.05–2.03; P = 0.027), comparing with unexposed women. Women who exposed to >5 cigarettes/day also had significant increased risk (adjusted OR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.28–3.10; P = 0.002), as were women exposed to passive smoke for 16–25 years (adjusted OR: 1.87 95% CI: 1.22–2.86; P = 0.004), and those exposed to > 4 pack-years (adjusted OR: 1.71 95% CI: 1.17–2.50; P = 0.004). Similar trends were significant for estrogen receptor (ER)/progesterone receptor (PR) double positive subgroup(adjusted OR: 1.71; 2.20; 1.99; 1.92, respectively), but not for ER+/PR−, ER−/PR+, or ER−/PR− subgroups. Limitations: limitations of the hospital-based retrospective study, lack of information on entire lifetime PSE and low statistical power. Conclusions: Our findings provide further evidence that PSE from partners contributes to increased risk of breast cancer, especially for ER/PR double positive breast cancer, in Chinese urban women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Colorectal cancer represents a major health problem and an important economic burden in Puerto Rico. In the 1990's, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico implemented a health care reform through the privatization of the public health system. The goal was to ensure access to health services, eliminate disparities for medically indigent citizens and provide special coverage for high-risk conditions such as cancer. This study estimates the 5-year relative survival rate of colorectal cancer and the relative excess risk of death in Puerto Rico for 2004–2005, by type of health insurance coverage; Government Health Plan vs. Non-Government Health Plan. Colorectal cancer in advanced stages was more common in Government Health Plan patients compared with Non-Government Health Plan patients (44.29% vs. 40.24 had regional extent and 13.58% versus 10.42% had distant involvement, respectively). Government Health Plan patients in the 50–64 (RR = 6.59; CI: 2.85–15.24) and ≥65 (RR = 2.4; CI: 1.72–4.04) age-groups had the greater excess risk of death compared with Non-Government Health Plan patients. Further studies evaluating the interplay of access to health services and the barriers affecting the Government Health Plan population are warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The aim of this study is to describe the evolution of multimorbidity. Study Design and Setting: Data from 1854 South Australians who participated in the North West Adelaide longitudinal Health Study(NWAHS) was collected between baseline (2000–2002) and follow-up (2008–2010). Status for eight chronic diseases (CDs) was determined by biomedical measurement or self-report. Chronic disease (CD) mean age of occurrence and order of appearance was investigated. Results: The prevalence of multimorbidity increased from 32% to 64% during the 7.8±1.1 years of follow-up. The estimated mean age of onset of a new CD was significantly older for hypertension, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and younger for hypercholesterolemia, asthma and other mental problem. Hypercholesterolemia was more likely to develop as a first than as a subsequent CD (39%vs.16%, p<0.0001) while CVD (1%vs.5%, p<0.0001), diabetes (5%vs.11%, p<0.001) and COPD (6%vs.16%, p<0.0001) were less likely. The presence of mood disorders at baseline was associated with an increased risk of developing other mental disorders (36%vs.12%, p<0.0001), diabetes (18%vs.9%, p<0.01) and asthma (30%vs.21%, p<0.05). Conclusion: Longitudinal data could be used to study the evolution of multimorbidity and could provide information on CDs mean age of occurrence, order of appearance and impact on the development of future CDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Setting: National Tuberculosis Program, Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Objective: To summarize data on the incidence of tuberculosis and associated risk factors for cases reported during 2010–2011. Design: Retrospective analysis of routinely collected data through an established national disease notification system of the Ministry of Health in KSA. Results: The estimated incidence of all forms of tuberculosis fell from 15.8/100000 (95% CI: 15.3/100,000–16.3/100,000) in 2010 to 13.8/100,000 (95% CI: 13.4/100,000–14.2/100,000) in 2011. Saudis experienced a decrease from 11.8/100,000 (95% CI: 11.3/100,000 to 12.3/100,000) in 2010 to 9.9/100,000 (95% CI: 9.5/100,000–10.4/100,000) in 2011 while the incidence in non-Saudis declined from 24.7/100,000 (95% CI: 23.6/100,000 to 25.7/100,000) in 2010 to 22.5/100,000 (95% CI: 21.5/100,000 to 23.4/100,000) in 2011. The proportion of Extra Pulmonary TB (EPTB) which increased minimally from 30% in 2010 to 32% in 2011 was higher than global figures and strongly associated with age, sex, nationality and occupation. Conclusion: The current estimated incidence of about 14/100,000 in 2011 is less than half its estimated value of 44/100000 in 1990. Without prejudice to any under-reporting, the KSA appeared to be on the course for TB elimination by 2050 having reached the first milestone set by WHO. The proportion of EPTB remains higher than global figure and age, sex, nationality and occupation were significant independent predictors of EPTB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Information about malaria risk factors at high altitudes is scanty. Understanding the risk factors that determine the risk of malaria transmission at high altitude villages is important to facilitate implementing sustainable malaria control and prevention programs. Methods: An unmatched case control study was conducted among patients seeking treatment at health centers in high altitude areas. Either microscopy or rapid diagnostic tests were used to confirm the presence of plasmodium species. A generalized linear model was used to identify the predictors of malaria transmission in high altitude villages. Results: Males (AOR = 3.11, 95%CI: 2.28, 4.23), and those who traveled away from the home in the previous month (AOR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.56, 2.58) were strongly associated with presence of malaria in high altitude villages. Other significant factors, including agriculture in occupation (AOR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.93), plants used for fencing (AOR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.18, 2.52) and forests near the house (AOR = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.15, 2.47), were found predictors for malaria in high altitude villages. Conclusion: Travel outside of their home was an important risk of malaria infections acquisition. Targeting males who frequently travel to malarious areas can reduce malaria transmission risks in high altitude areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pre- and perinatal factors and preschool body size may help identify children developing overweight, but these factors might have changed during the development of the obesity epidemic. Objective: We aimed to assess the associations between early life risk indicators and overweight at the age of 9 and 15 years at different stages of the obesity epidemic. Methods: We used two population-based Northern Finland Birth Cohorts including 4111 children born in 1966 (NFBC1966) and 5414 children born in 1985–1986 (NFBC1986). In both cohorts, we used the same a priori defined prenatal factors, maternal body mass index (BMI), birth weight, infant weight (age 5 months and 1 year), and preschool BMI (age 2–5 years). We used internal references in early childhood to define percentiles of body size (<50, 50–75, 75–90 and >90) and generalized linear models to study the association with overweight, according to the International Obesity Taskforce (IOTF) definitions, at the ages of 9 and 15 years. Results: The prevalence of overweight at the age of 15 was 9% for children born in 1966 and 16% for children born in 1986. However, medians of infant weight and preschool BMI changed little between the cohorts, and we found similar associations between maternal BMI, infant weight, preschool BMI, and later overweight in the two cohorts. At 5 years, children above the 90th percentile had approximately a 12 times higher risk of being overweight at the age of 15 years compared to children below the 50th percentile in both cohorts. Conclusions: The associations between early body size and adolescent overweight showed remarkable stability, despite the increase in prevalence of overweight over the 20 years between the cohorts. Using consequently defined internal percentiles may be a valuable tool in clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adjustment for the differing risk profiles of patients is essential to the use of administrative hospital data for epidemiological research. Smoking is an important factor to include in such adjustments, but the accuracy of the diagnostic codes denoting smoking in hospital records is unknown. The aims of this study were to measure the validity of current smoking and ever smoked status identified from diagnoses in hospital records using a range of algorithms, relative to self-reported smoking status; and to examine whether the misclassification of smoking identified through hospital data is differential or non-differential with respect to common exposures and outcomes. Data from the baseline questionnaire of the 45 and Up Study, completed by 267,153 residents of New South Wales (NSW), Australia, aged 45 years and older, were linked to the NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection. Patients who had been admitted to hospital for an overnight stay between 1 July 2005 and the date of completion of the questionnaire (1 January 2006 to 2 March 2009) were included. Smokers were identified by applying a range of algorithms to hospital admission histories, and compared against self-reported smoking in the questionnaire (‘gold standard’). Sensitivities for current smoking ranged from 59% to 84%, while specificities were 94% to 98%. Sensitivities for ever smoked ranged from 45% to 74% and specificities were 93% to 97%. For the majority of algorithms, sensitivities and/or specificities differed significantly according to principal diagnosis, number of comorbidities, socioeconomic status, residential remoteness, Indigenous status, 28 day readmission and 365 day mortality. The identification of smoking through diagnoses in hospital data results in differential misclassification. Risk adjustment based on smoking identified from these data will yield potentially misleading results. Systematic capture of information about smoking in hospital records using a mandatory item would increase the utility of administrative data for epidemiological research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence has declined significantly in the US, as have levels of major coronary risk factors, including LDL-cholesterol, hypertension and smoking, but whether trends in subclinical atherosclerosis mirror these trends is not known. Methods and Findings: To describe recent secular trends in subclinical atherosclerosis as measured by serial evaluations of coronary artery calcification (CAC) prevalence in a population over 10 years, we measured CAC using computed tomography (CT) and CHD risk factors in five serial cross-sectional samples of men and women from four race/ethnic groups, aged 55–84 and without clinical cardiovascular disease, who were members of Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort from 2000 to 2012. Sample sizes ranged from 1062 to 4837. After adjusting for age, gender, and CT scanner, the prevalence of CAC increased across exams among African Americans, whose prevalence of CAC was 52.4% in 2000–02, 50.4% in 2003–04, 60.0% is 2005–06, 57.4% in 2007–08, and 61.3% in 2010–12 (p for trend <0.001). The trend was strongest among African Americans aged 55–64 [prevalence ratio for 2010–12 vs. 2000–02, 1.59 (95% confidence interval 1.06, 2.39); p = 0.005 for trend across exams]. There were no consistent trends in any other ethnic group. Risk factors generally improved in the cohort, and adjustment for risk factors did not change trends in CAC prevalence. Conclusions: There was a significant secular trend towards increased prevalence of CAC over 10 years among African Americans and no change in three other ethnic groups. Trends did not reflect concurrent general improvement in risk factors. The trend towards a higher prevalence of CAC in African Americans suggests that CHD risk in this population is not improving relative to other groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

HIV risk perceptions and behaviors of 236 commercial sex workers from three major Mozambican urban centers were studied using the International Rapid Assessment, Response and Evaluation (I-RARE) methodology. All were offered HIV testing and, in Maputo, syphilis testing was offered as well. Sixty-three of the 236 opted for HIV testing, with 30 (48%) testing positive for HIV. In Maputo, all 30 receiving HIV tests also had syphilis testing, with 6 (20%) found to be positive. Results include interview excerpts and qualitative results using I-RARE methodology and AnSWR-assisted analyses of the interviews and focus group sessions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess the role of body adiposity index (BAI) in predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, in comparison with body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and the waist circumference to hip circumference ratio (WHR). This study was a prospective 15 year mortality follow-up of 4175 Australian males, free of heart disease, diabetes and stroke. The Framingham Risk Scores (FRS) for CHD and CVD death were calculated at baseline for all subjects. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the effects of the measures of obesity on CVD and CHD mortality, before adjustment and after adjustment for FRS. The predictive ability of BAI, though present in the unadjusted analyses, was generally not significant after adjustment for age and FRS for both CVD and CHD mortality. BMI behaved similarly to BAI in that its predictive ability was generally not significant after adjustments. Both WC and WHR were significant predictors of CVD and CHD mortality and remained significant after adjustment for covariates. BAI appeared to be of potential interest as a measure of % body fat and of obesity, but was ineffective in predicting CVD and CHD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) and Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis (TEN), caused by allopurinol therapy, are strongly associated with the human leukocyte antigen (HLA), HLA-B*5801. Identification of HLA-B*5801 genotype before prescribing allopurinol offers the possibility of avoiding allopurinol-induced SJS/TEN. As there is a paucity of evidence about economic value of such testing, this study aims to determine the cost-effectiveness of HLA-B*5801 testing compared with usual care (no genetic testing) before allopurinol administration in Thailand. Methods and Finding: A decision analytical and Markov model was used to estimate life time costs and outcomes represented as quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. The model was populated with relevant information of the association between gene and allopurinol-induced SJS/TEN, test characteristics, costs, and epidemiologic data for Thailand from a societal perspective. Input data were obtained from the literature and a retrospective database analysis. The results were expressed as incremental cost per QALY gained. A base-case analysis was performed for patients at age 30. A series of sensitivity analyses including scenario, one-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were constructed to explore the robustness of the findings. Based on a hypothetical cohort of 1,000 patients, the incremental total cost was 923,919 THB (USD 29,804) and incremental QALY was 5.89 with an ICER of 156,937.04 THB (USD 5,062) per QALY gained. The cost of gout management, incidence of SJS/TEN, case fatality rate of SJS/TEN, and cost of genetic testing are considered very influential parameters on the cost-effectiveness value of HLA-B*5801 testing. Conclusions: The genetic testing for HLA-B*5801 before allopurinol administration is considered a highly potential cost-effective intervention in Thailand. The findings are sensitive to a number of factors. In addition to cost-effectiveness findings, consideration of other factors including ethical, legal, and social implications is needed for an informed policy decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although the chemopreventive effect of 5-aminosalicylates on patients with ulcerative colitis has been extensively studied, the results remain controversial. This updated review included more recent studies and evaluated the effectiveness of 5-aminosalicylates use on colorectal neoplasia prevention in patients with ulcerative colitis. Methods: Up to July 2013, we searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane CENTRAL, and SinoMed of China for all relevant observational studies (case-control and cohort) about the effect of 5-aminosalicylates on the risk of colorectal neoplasia among patients with ulcerative colitis. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale was used to assess the quality of studies. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were extracted from each study. A random-effects model was used to generate pooled ORs and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Publication bias and heterogeneity were assessed. Results: Seventeen studies containing 1,508 cases of colorectal neoplasia and a total of 20,193 subjects published from 1994 to 2012 were analyzed. 5-aminosalicylates use was associated with a reduced risk of colorectal neoplasia in patients with ulcerative colitis (OR 0.63; 95%CI 0.48–0.84). Pooled OR of a higher average daily dose of 5-aminosalicylates (sulfasalazine ≥ 2.0 g/d, mesalamine ≥ 1.2 g/d) was 0.51 [0.35–0.75]. Pooled OR of 5-aminosalicylates use in patients with extensive ulcerative colitis was 1.00 [0.53–1.89]. Conclusion: Our pooled results indicated that 5-aminosalicylates use was associated with a reduced risk of colorectal neoplasia in patients with ulcerative colitis, especially in the cases with a higher average daily dose of 5-aminosalicylates use. However, the chemopreventive benefit of 5-aminosalicylates use in patients with extensive ulcerative colitis was limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Limited prospective data are available on the importance of estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and proteinuria in the prediction of all-cause mortality (ACM) in community-based elderly populations. We examined the relationship between GFR or proteinuria and ACM in 949 randomly selected community-dwelling elderly subjects (aged ≥65 years) over a 5-year period. A spot urine sample was used to measure proteinuria by the dipstick test, and GFR was estimated using the chronic kidney disease-epidemiology collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation. Information about mortality and causes of death was collected by direct enquiry with the subjects and from the national mortality data. Compared to subjects without proteinuria, those with proteinuria of grade ≥1+ had a 1.725-fold (1.134–2.625) higher risk of ACM. Compared to subjects with GFR ≥90 ml/min/1.73 m2, those with GFR<45 ml/min/1.73 m2 had a 2.357 -fold (1.170–4.750) higher risk for ACM. Among the 403 subjects included in the analysis of renal progression, the annual rate of GFR change during follow-up period was −0.52±2.35 ml/min/1.73 m2/year. The renal progression rate was 7.315-fold (1.841–29.071) higher in subjects with GFR<60 ml/min/1.73 m2 than in those with GFR ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Among a community-dwelling elderly Korean population, decreased GFR of <45 ml/min/1.73 m2 and proteinuria were independent risk factors for ACM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]