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The problem of high grain production costs, which is not conducive to sustainable agricultural development and food security, is highlighted in the context of China's "large country and small household farmers". Reducing the grain production costs through factor allocation and organizational drive has become particularly important. Based on 768-grain peasant households in China, this paper uses OLS regression and robust regression to examine the effects of agricultural factor inputs and cooperatives on grain production costs. It analyzes the synergistic and substitution effects between farmers' factor inputs and cooperatives in grain production. It was found that: (1) in farmers' grain production, reductions in the grain production costs can be realized by expanding the area under cultivation, improving the use of agricultural machinery, and increasing technological inputs; (2) a reduction in the grain production costs can also be realized through cooperatives driving farmers into grain production; (3) cooperatives can provide farmers with various types of agricultural production services in grain production and cooperative-driven substitution effects between the agricultural factor inputs of farm households. The findings of this paper contribute to the enrichment of research in the field of agricultural production and are important for enhancing agricultural sustainability and reducing grain production costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Situated at middle-to-high latitudes with limited thermal resources, Northeast China is the primary maize-producing region in China. It is also one of the regions most significantly impacted by climate change. Given the persistent impact of climate change, it is crucial to elucidate the effects of the varying thermal conditions and low temperatures for different sowing dates on the growth, development, and grain maturity of spring maize. To ensure secure maize production and disaster prevention, choosing the optimal sowing time for spring maize holds significant implications for the judicious utilization of climatic resources, risk mitigation, and the provision of meteorological guidance. Moreover, it can serve as a technical reference for relevant departments to conduct climate evaluation, disaster monitoring, prediction, and assessment, as well as impact analysis of corn production safety. Additionally, it can provide meteorological evidence to ensure food security and promote the sustainable development of modern agriculture. An interval sowing experiment of spring maize was conducted in Harbin in the north of Northeast China. Two varieties were used in the experiment. Four sowing dates were set, and the interval between adjacent sowing dates was 10 days. The local perennial sowing time, 5 May, was set as the second sowing date, with one date set later and two dates set earlier. During the experiment, the growth process, grain dry matter, seed moisture content, yield components, and temperature of spring maize were observed. The impact of temperature conditions on maize growth and yield formation was analyzed in this paper through mathematical statistics, which further led to the establishment of a monitoring and evaluation model for assessing the effect of thermal conditions and temperature on maize. The results showed that the growth rate of spring maize was closely related to temperature. When the average temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature increased by 1 °C, the average emergence rate increased by 1.05%, 0.99%, and 1.07%, respectively, and the average vegetative growth rate increased by 0.16%, 0.16%, and 0.09%, respectively. The change rate of ≥10 °C active accumulated temperature was significantly correlated with the change rate of the dry weight of the grain kernel, which conformed to the quadratic equation of one variable. The temperature influence coefficients of different sowing dates varied from 1.0% to 1.7%. The relationship between the accumulated values of 10 ℃ active accumulated temperature and the grain moisture content of spring maize was a logarithmic function. From 10 to 50 days after anthesis, the effect of temperature can explain about 95% of the change in grain moisture content. After physiological maturity, the effect of thermal conditions can only explain 56–83%. The temperature influence coefficient ranges from 1.3% to 13.8%. Comparatively speaking, the second sowing date is the most suitable sowing date. Early sowing is prone to encounter low temperatures, resulting in underutilization of the early heat, while late sowing is prone to less heat. Both conditions are not conducive to better improve the yield of spring maize. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nitrogen application rate (NAR) has a significant effect on the contents of wheat grain protein and its composition. There is still no consensus regarding the appropriate NAR, given the differences in studied conditions and influence of factors such as geographical location, climate, and soil nutrient contents. In this study, 66 papers related to wheat grain protein and its composition published from 1984 to 2021 were selected for meta-analysis in comprehensively evaluating the response of wheat grain protein content and composition to NAR in China. The results reveal that NAR significantly increased total protein content by 9.49–28.6%, gliadin by 9.13–30.5%, glutenin by 12.9–45.4%, albumin by 5.06–15.8%, and globulin by 8.52–24.0% of wheat grain in China, respectively, compared to no nitrogen application. The optimal NAR is 240–300 kg ha−1 when specific planting conditions are not being considered. Under different growing conditions, the NAR that provided the greatest increase in wheat grain protein and its composition varied as follows: 180–240 kg ha−1 in Northwest China and at >100 m altitudes; >300 kg ha−1 in North China and at <100 m altitudes and lower soil base nutrient levels; 240–300 kg ha−1 in Southeast China, with higher soil nutrients levels and for all average annual temperatures and precipitation ranges. In conclusion, the results of the present study reveal that it is feasible to systematically enhance the contents of wheat grain protein and its related fractions by appropriate NAR under different cropping conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on theoretical analysis of the connotations of and influencing factors on rural green development, this paper systematically explains its promotion mechanisms, its heterogeneity, and transmission effects of the integration of agriculture and tourism (hereinafter referred to as IAT) on rural green development; constructs and measures development indicators of IAT based on the three dimensions factors, performance, and structure; constructs comprehensive indicators of rural green development based on the three dimensions production, life, and ecology; and takes the panel data of 152 prefecture-level cities with agricultural leisure demonstration counties from 2010 to 2019 as samples for empirical testing. Results show that (1) IAT has a significant positive effect on rural green development, and endogenous tests based on instrumental variables and robustness tests show that the above conclusion is valid; (2) heterogeneity analysis shows that IAT plays a more significant role in promoting rural green development in high-human-capital areas, central and western regions, and non-major grain-producing areas; and (3) labor structure, capital input, and technological progress can play a transmitting role in promoting rural green development through IAT. At the end, this paper puts forward some countermeasures to promote rural green development by implementation of the quality projects strategy of IAT, the "tailor-made" support policy of IAT, based on the advantages of resource endowment and improvement of transmission mechanisms based on labor structure, capital input, and technological progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The "Yangtze River Economic Belt Development Strategy" is one of China's three major national development strategies. Enhancing the protection and quality of arable land in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB) is pivotal for fostering regional growth. In this study, land use data spanning the years 1980 to 2020 in the YEB were extracted from the national land use database maintained by the Resource and Environment Data Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Employing Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis techniques and arable land change metrics, the study delineated the spatiotemporal characteristics of arable land alterations across the YEB for the period. Additionally, using grain output data at the prefecture level from 2011 to 2020, the paper calculated provincial grain output to analyze the impact of arable land changes over the last four decades on grain output. The findings revealed that: (1) From 1980 to 2020, the total arable land area in the YEB decreased by approximately 41,775 square kilometers, with the most significant decrease occurring in the downstream region. (2) From 1980 to 1990, the primary factor contributing to the decrease in arable land area was the expansion of water bodies, while from 1990 to 2020, the principal reason for the reduction in arable land area was the expansion of construction land. (3) From 1980 to 2020, the decrease in arable land area resulted in a net reduction of approximately 25.12 million tons in total grain output, with the largest decline observed in the downstream regions and the smallest decline in the upstream regions. (4) Consistent with the trends in arable land area reduction, the main reason for the decline in grain output from 1980 to 1990 was the expansion of water bodies encroaching upon arable land, whereas from 2000 to 2010, the primary cause of arable land reduction was the expansion of construction land areas. In conclusion, the research suggested that over the past four decades, the primary driver behind the reduction in arable land within the YEB has been the expansion of construction land areas. Particularly noteworthy was the period from 2000 to 2010, during which the impact of arable land reduction on grain output was most pronounced. This period coincided with the rapid economic development and accelerated urbanization process within the YEB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cultivated land planting structure is directly related to China's food security. The Central Rural Work Conference in 2021 pointed out that to ensure food security, attention should be paid to the adjustment of planting structure. Therefore, it is necessary to explore whether land tenure security has an impact on farmers' cultivated land non-grain behavior. Based on the micro survey data of 550 farmers in the Guanzhong Plain, this paper explores the impact of land tenure security on farmers' cultivated land non-grain behavior with the help of the OLS model and the Binary Probit model, and further explores its internal transmission mechanism through the mediation effect model. It is found that land tenure security significantly promotes farmers' cultivated land non-grain behavior. After replacing model estimation, core variables for robustness tests, and solving endogeneity problems, the research conclusion is still valid. The analysis of the influence mechanism shows that land tenure security affects farmers' cultivated land non-grain behavior by increasing land transfer and agricultural productive investment. Among them, agricultural productive investment has the greatest impact, followed by land transfer. In addition, the study also found that land tenure security can promote their cultivated land non-grain behavior by strengthening their credit availability for farmers with low fragmentation. Heterogeneity analysis results show that off-farm employment and social services can effectively alleviate the impact of land tenure security on farmers' cultivated land non-grain behavior. This paper provides a new research perspective for analyzing the incentives of cultivated land non-grain from the micro-mechanism. At the same time, it revealed the inner root of the government's predicament in the governance of cultivated land non-grain. It provided a new reference for the government to formulate new policies for managing non-grained cultivated land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The topic of grain production and quality has always been a fundamental issue for the country's livelihood. With the purpose of contributing to high-quality grain development and ensuring national food security, this paper explores the spatial and temporal evolution, regional differences and convergence of grain green total factor productivity (GTFP) in the main grain-producing regions of China from the dual perspectives of carbon emissions and surface pollution with the help of EBM-GML model, kernel density function estimation and convergence methods. The results show that (1) Grain GTFP has generally shown a positive growth trend, although there exists obvious spatial differences. (2) In terms of decomposition indices, technological progress is the source of the increase in grain GTFP. (3) There are σ convergence, absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence in the main producing region as well as in the Yellow River basin and the Yangtze River basin; there are only absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence in the Songhua River basin. Grain GTFP has a single high-efficiency convergence point, and the grain GTFP is enhancing year by year in each province, and the inter-provincial gap is shrinking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As two influential countries in the global grain production and marketing system, China and Russia have increasingly strengthened their agricultural, economic, and trade cooperation. There are few papers that have considered trade relations from the perspective of the growth effect of grain exports, and it is necessary to fill this gap by systematically sorting the grain trade between the two countries and clarifying the growth effect and influencing factors in this paper. By comparing and analyzing the quantitative and structural characteristics of grain trade between China and Russia between 1996 and 2020, this study used the H–K marginal analysis method to explore the growth path and influencing factors of the export trade of grain products between China and Russia. The results show that the main driving force of the export growth of Russian and Chinese grain products is the price margin, which presents a growth pattern dominated by price and complemented by type and quantity. The empirical analysis of the gravity model shows that the size of the agricultural economy, grain productivity, trade cost, and economic shocks have significant impacts on bilateral trade. In view of this, the status of international agricultural cooperation between China and Russia will be further optimized if they can optimize trade policies to improve the quality of trade development, build cross-border cooperation parks to construct the layout of the whole industrial chain, strengthen infrastructure construction, and deepen and expand interconnectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food security is a national priority and a cornerstone for maintaining national and regional stability. Focusing on cropping structure directly related to food security, this paper estimates the causal effect of urbanization on cropping restructuring in China. We use provincial panel data between 2000 and 2019 and threshold regression models to identify potential structural mutation characteristics. This study is an attempt to fill the cognitive gap for the nonlinear relationship between urbanization and cropping restructure. Urbanization formed agricultural labor supply constraints that significantly increased the share of sown area of grain crops, but with obvious threshold characteristics, and the effect of urbanization on cropping structure was no longer significant after crossing the threshold. Urbanization in the main grain-producing regions and main grain-selling regions promoted the adjustment of cropping structure in the direction of grain but was not significant in balanced production and marketing regions. Short-distance urbanization did not bring significant effects on cropping restructuring. We propose several suggestions for cultivated land planting structure, urbanization, and food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food is the material basis for human survival. Therefore, food security is a top priority for the people's livelihood and the sustainable development and future destiny of human beings. In the context of global warming in recent decades, the Arctic region has experienced more significant temperature anomalies than the midlatitudes due to the "Arctic amplification," and the rate of sea ice reduction has accelerated, which has an important impact on climate change in the middle and high latitudes, especially the frequent occurrence of extreme climate disasters that seriously affect food security and China's agricultural production. However, little research has been conducted on the role of changes in this important system of Arctic sea ice in China's agricultural production. Therefore, this paper analyzes the interannual variability and multi-year trends of Arctic sea ice concentration, CO2, air temperature, precipitation and China's major crop yield data to explore the possible effects and mechanisms of the rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice on China's grain production. From the analysis, it was found that the yield of major grains (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) in China was closely related to the Arctic sea ice anomaly in the previous summer and autumn, and the influence process was primarily through the dynamic process of the Arctic sea ice anomaly affecting the meridional temperature gradient and the positive and negative Arctic Oscillation phases, which in turn affected the air temperature anomalies in Eurasia and China, and finally led to the anomalous changes in Chinese grain yield. Based on this, a prediction model of China's major grain yield was established by stepwise nonlinear multiple regression analysis, which is a good fit and is expected to increase China's major crop yield by 11.4% in 2022 compared with last year. This presents new ideas and methods for future grain yield assessment in China and has far-reaching guidance for the stability and development of national and regional economies worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, the grain subsidies in China are mainly in forms of technical subsidies, like subsidies for superior seed varieties and general subsidies for agricultural production supplies and grain purchase prices. However, the purpose of the paper focuses on whether these subsidy policies can cause good effects and encourage farmers to grow grains and what impact these subsidy policies have on farmers' income. The paper takes a specific area as a research object and sorts the data using the statistical analysis put in the paper. Considering the current agricultural production conditions, the paper studies the content and structure of grain subsidy policy and the changes in grain growing acreage, farmers' income, and agricultural power machinery under the implementation of grain subsidy policy. In the end, the paper makes a research into the effect of implementing the grain subsidy policy, uses the statistical analysis to empirically analyze the impact the grain subsidy policy has on grain growing acreage, and draws a conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food security concerns people's livelihood. Under the background of urban-rural integrated development and accelerated rural revitalization, high-quality grain production is the foundation of agricultural modernization, and grain industrialization is the only way to realize agricultural modernization. How to produce high-quality food has been widely concerned. The goal of this paper is to establish the modernization of the entire industrial chain of food production, laying a foundation for comprehensive revitalization for the high-quality development of the food industry and the realization of food industrialization. From the perspective of rural revitalization, the high-quality development model of China's grain industry is studied. This paper gives new progress and new achievements in the high-quality grain development model, which requires a more precise and internally driven policy support system. The high quality of the food industry will help to improve the level of food industrialization, expand the economy of the food industry, accelerate the process of agricultural modernization, and ultimately realize rural revitalization and an all-round well-off society in rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the data of 2015 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), this paper applies the intermediary effect model to identify the intermediate transmission mechanism in which farmland transfers affect agricultural production efficiency. The results show that the output value of households that have transferred farmland is increased by about 27% more than those that have not. In addition, the transfer of farmland has a more significant impact on the agricultural production efficiency of young and middle --aged families. The transfer of farmland from grain production areas has an increased tendency to household output value. The mechanism analysis shows that the transfer of farmland affects agricultural production efficiency in the following two ways. On the one hand, the transfer of farmland can help realize the effective replacement of labor by machinery, increase the mechanization degree of agricultural production, and realize the scale effect of farmland. On the other hand, based on the maximization of their own interests, farmers prefer to plant cash crops and improve agricultural production efficiency through the selection effect. By comparing the above two effects, we found that the planting selection behavior of compacting grain and expanding economic growth is more prominent. Therefore, this article proposes to promote the development of the farmland transfer market and make use of scale advantage. Meanwhile, the self-selection behavior of transferred farmers in planting crops should be valued and young people with advanced concepts to engage in agricultural production activities should be introduced, which inject "fresh blood" into agricultural modernization. However, we should also keep the red line of farmland and alert the phenomenon of "non-agricultural" and "non-grain" in the transfer of farmland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Charring process affects the preservation potential of seeds, resulting in limited perceptions of crop assemblages recovered from archaeological layers. Therefore, the specifics of the charring process deserve further investigation. Colloquially referred to as the "Five Grains" (1), bread wheat (Triticum aestivum), foxtail millet (Setaria italica), broomcorn millet (Panicum miliaceum), rice (Oryza sativa), and soybean (Glycine max) represent a set of four major cultivated cereals and a pulse constituting crucial staple food in Chinese history and the most frequently discovered crops at archaeological sites in China. Methods: This paper aims to understand the changes in size, volume, and weight loss of grains under variable aerobic charring conditions. The size and weight were measured for the untreated specimens and the specimens heated at different temperatures and over different time-periods. Results: We found that temperature and exposure time directly affected the grain size. Specifically, the grains of most species shrank at lower temperatures and expanded rapidly at higher temperatures. Discussion: Among the "Five Grains", soybean was the type least affected by charring, followed by wheat, rice, and millet. Volume and weight can be used as conversion factors to minimize the bias in quantitative representation due to varied charring preservation potential. For rice, wheat and soybean, the variation in volume is smaller. For millet, both volume and weight can be used as the control to understand the consequences of charring for the assemblage. Further experiments and comparisons of ancient samples are needed in future studies to investigate other factors that affect the preservation of charred plant remains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explaining the methane emission pattern of Chinese agriculture and the influencing factors of its spatiotemporal differentiation is of great theoretical and practical significance for carbon neutrality. This paper uses the IPCC coefficient method to measure and analyze the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of agricultural methane emission, clarify the dynamic evolution trend of the kernel density function, and reveal the key influencing factors of agricultural methane emission with geographical detectors. The results show that China's agricultural methane emissions showed a first increasing and then declining trend. Agricultural methane emissions decreased from 21.4587 million tons to 17.6864 million tons, with an upward trend from 2000 to 2005, a significant decline in 2006, a slow change from 2007 to 2015, and a significant decline from 2015 to 2019. In addition, the emissions pattern of the three major grain functional areas is characteristic; in 2019, agricultural methane emissions from main producing area, main sales area, and balance area were 10.8406 million tons, 1.2471 million tons, and 5.599 million tons, respectively. The main grain producing area is the main area of methane emissions, and the emission pattern will not change in the short term. The variability of grain functional areas is the decisive factor for the difference in agricultural methane emissions. The state of industrial structure is the key influencing factor for adjusting the spatial distribution—the explanatory power of the industrial structure to the main producing areas reached 0.549; the level of agricultural development is the most core influencing factor of the spatial pattern of the main grain sales area—the explanatory power reached 0.292; and the level of industrialization and the industrial structure are the core influencing factors of the spatial pattern of the balance area—the explanatory power reached 0.545 and 0.479, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Ecosystem services are quantified at large scales and long time series in NE China. • The trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services are characterized. • Human activities are the dominant driving factors of provisioning services. • Synergistic optimization paths of production-ecological functions are proposed. In Northeast (NE) China, the largest commodity grain base and natural forest area in China, both agricultural production and ecological protection require attention. In recent years, land degradation in NE China has increased, seriously affecting the production-ecology synergy. In this paper, four key ecosystem services (ESs) in NE China are quantified: provisioning, water conservation (WC), soil conservation (SC) and sand fixation (SF), and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and trade-offs and synergies (T&S) of ESs are analyzed. The driving factors of provisioning services and the characteristics of T&S are considered, and the county zoning scheme and the corresponding production-ecological function synergistic optimization paths are proposed. The results show that (1) the provisioning, WC and SF services in NE China have slightly increased in the past 20 years, and the provisioning in the Greater-Khingan-Mountains-Region (GKMR) and Lesser-Khingan-Mountains-Region (LKMR), the WC in the LKMR, and the SF in the Liao-River-Plain (LRP) have more obviously increased. The SC service has slightly decreased, especially in the Changbai-Mountains-Region (CBMR). (2) The provisioning service in NE China mainly shows a synergistic relationship with WC and SF, accounting for 79.1 % and 62.9 % of the area, respectively, and a trade-off relationship with SC, accounting for 52.54 % of the area. (3) Human activities (HA) are the dominant driving factor of the provisioning service change in NE China, with an impact degree of 62.65 %. The LKMR is an exception, as climate change (CC) dominates. The LRP, Songnen-Plain (SNP) and GKMR have high degrees of HA. (4) The number of synergistic optimized (SO), light optimized (LO) and trade-off limited (TL) counties accounted for 19.0 %, 61.7 % and 19.3 %, respectively. Among them, the SO type counties should prioritize improving provision and grain production capacity, the LO type counties should protect basic farmland and decrease trade-offs between ESs, and the TL type counties should improve ecological functions and strengthen ecological protection and restoration. This paper clarifies the main contradictions of ESs in NE China and provides an important scientific basis for ecological protection and restoration, which is important for ensuring food and ecological security and realizing the ecological and efficient sustainable utilization of black soil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heilongjiang Province, as a major grain-planting province in China, under the condition of limited production level and cognitive level, the food and agriculture industry often adopts the "high input-high output" production model to achieve grain yield and increase production. As one of the important material input elements in agricultural production, chemical fertilizer plays an irreplaceable role in increasing crop output and farmers' income. The reduced application of chemical fertilizer can improve the soil and water source, improve the production environment from the internal agricultural production, and ensure the quality and safety of agricultural products from the source, which is beneficial to the sustainable development of agriculture in China. In this paper, Probit model is used to analyze the risk preference and risk perception of grain farmers in Heilongjiang Province. The results showed that high degree of risk preference had a negative effect on decision behavior of fertilizer application, while high natural risk perception had a positive effect on fertilizer application behavior of grain farmers. At the same time, the results showed that the cultivated land area owned by farmers, the total income of agricultural production, the training of fertilizer technology, and the cognition of the impact of fertilizer on the environment all had significant effects on the chemical fertilizer application behavior of grain farmers. Finally, according to the results of this study, some feasible suggestions are put forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food security plays an important role in maintaining national stability and sustainable development of human society, and its research has become a hot issue at present. Shandong is the main grain producing area in China, and its grain production plays an important role in national food security. Accordingly, this paper is based on the county climate change, grain yield, sown area, fertilizer use, total power of rural machinery, and total population data in Shandong Province from 1995 to 2020. The evolution process of the food security pattern was studied by the methods of spatial analysis and comprehensive evaluation, the influencing factors of food security were quantitatively analyzed, and the adaptive countermeasures to alleviate the food security risks in this region were discussed. The results show that: Grain production increased by 30.62% from 1995 to 2020. The total population and per capita food availability also increased. Since 2000, more than a quarter of counties have experienced a high risk of food insecurity. The spatial agglomeration of grain production was enhanced, and the local agglomeration characteristics were significantly different. The average temperature in the growing season, the sown area, and the total power of agricultural machinery had a significant positive impact on grain production, while the annual average temperature had a significant negative impact on grain production. Improving the food supply system, strengthening the protection of cultivated land, improving the efficiency of fertilizer utilization, and increasing investment in agricultural science and technology can effectively alleviate food security risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transformation of dietary structure brought about by economic development in populous countries is expected to trigger an increase in grain demand, which will put enormous pressure on the grain supply in these nations and even globally. We simulated nine demand scenarios for 2020–2050 based on China's dataset for 15 kinds of grains from 1961–2018. The results show that the maximum difference between the predicted grain demand is 323.8 Mt, equal to the total grain consumption of approximately 600 million Chinese people in one year. To capture which demand scenarios will be met when grain productivity gradually improves within reasonable ranges, we present three projections from the production side. In particular, Projection 1 (P1), which maintains productivity at the current level, only fulfills the projected demand for Scenarios 1-LL, 2-LM, 4-ML, and 7-HL and falls short of the maximum value (Scenario 9-HH) by 117 Mt, which requires an additional 250,000 ha of arable land resources to fill the gap. After raising the preset value of grain yield, the productivity of Projection 2 in turn satisfies the demand scenario 5-MM. When both set variables (grain yields and arable area) increase simultaneously, the output of Projection 3 increases by 15.3% over P1. However, it still lags behind the demand of 68 million tons in Scenario 9-HH, thus implying uncertainty in China's vision of meeting the goal of 95% grain self-sufficiency. Rather than pursuing a single outcome, we discuss multiple possibilities for China's future grain balance and emphasize the adjusting and compensating role of grain trade and storage in the whole system. Ultimately, this paper calls for a better understanding of the supply–demand gap therein and its future trends to support national grain security as well as global sustainable food policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the factors (including conservation payments) that influence household decisions to participate in off-farm work and estimate the impact of participation on household welfare under the auspices of the Grain for Green (GfG) program. Design/methodology/approach: The authors used survey data from 225 farm households on the Loess Plateau and addressed the possible sample selection and endogeneity problems by employing a jointly estimated endogenous switching regression (ESR) model. Findings: The findings of this paper are as follows: off-farm participation is positively related to households' educational attainment and negatively related to their land resource endowment and the presence of children; participation in off-farm work exerts positive effects on household income and per capita household income, but negative effects on farm productivity; and conservation payments show no significant impact on off-farm participation, no significant impact on any of the three household welfare indicators for off-farm non-participant households, but a significantly negative impact for off-farm participant households. Originality/value: This paper makes two contributions. First, the authors address the selection bias and endogeneity problem of GfG participating households by employing the ESR method and explicitly estimating the treatment effects of off-farm participation on their household welfare. Neglecting these problems leads to biased estimates and misleading policy implications. Second, this analysis stresses the important role of government in reducing market or institutional failure and other barriers that impede farmers' efficient allocation choices instead of compensating households for conserving sloping land, shedding new light on the most effective policy options to achieve the program's goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The supply capacity of water resources, food and meat products is of great importance to the people's livelihood of a country. In recent years, although China has introduced many policies on water resources and grain production, the current situation of China's food self-sufficiency and imbalance between supply and demand of water resources has not been fundamentally changed. Food security and water security are facing a serious situation. This paper takes the water footprint as the connection point, and combines the water food meat system with mutual influence, mutual causation and dynamic feedback into a composite system. At the same time, the simulation model of the composite system is established by using system dynamics, and the dynamic simulation of water grain meat in China from 2000 to 2050 is carried out to explore the current situation and future development trend of China's water, grain and meat supply capacity. It was found that during the simulated period, the agricultural blue-green water footprint on the demand side would continue to dominate, followed by the gray water footprint. The blue water footprint on the supply side remained stable, whereas the green water footprint and the circulating water footprint showed an upward trend. According to the contemporary social and economic development and the model of water resources in China, there will be no meat shortage in the future, but issues have been found in the ability to guarantee water and food supply. The root of China's food support capability problem is excessive grain consumption due to meat production, whereas the cause of the water support capability problem is the slow development of the water conservation. Food support capability issues can be solved by regulating the meat output of livestock farming and fishery operations, reducing excess production capacity, and stabilizing the meat supply and demand. To solve the water support capability issue, China should focus on accelerating the pace of agricultural water-conservation development, improving the sewage treatment system, building rainwater-collection projects, and promoting the research and development of water recycling technology. This study provides support for optimizing the structures of the meat and grain industries and the policy formulation of the efficient use of water resources in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The structure of the grain-and-oil-food-supply chain has the characteristics of complexity, cross-regionality, a long cycle, and numerous participants, making it difficult to maintain the safety of supply. In recent years, some phenomena have emerged in the field of grain procurement and sale, such as topping the new with the old, rotating grains, the pressure of grades and prices, and counterfeit oil food, which have seriously threatened grain-and-oil-food security. Blockchain technology has the advantage of decentralization and non-tampering Therefore, this study analyzes the characteristics of traceability data in the grain-and-oil-food-supply chain, and presents a blockchain-based traceability model for the grain-and-oil-food-supply chain. Firstly, a new method combining blockchain and machine learning is proposed to enhance the authenticity and reliability of blockchain source data by constructing anomalous data-processing models. In addition, a lightweight blockchain-storage method and a data-recovery mechanism are proposed to reduce the pressure on supply-chain-data storage and improve fault tolerance. The results indicate that the average query delay of public data is 0.42 s, the average query delay of private data is 0.88 s, and the average data-recovery delay is 1.2 s. Finally, a blockchain-based grain-and-oil-food-supply-chain traceability system is designed and built using Hyperledger Fabric. Compared with the existing grain-and-oil-food-supply chain, the model constructed achieves multi-source heterogeneous data uploading, lightweight storage, data recovery, and traceability in the supply chain, which are of great significance for ensuring the safety of grain-and-oil food in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 2008 global food crisis, food security vulnerability has been a prominent topic in the food policy debate. However, vulnerability is inherently difficult to conceptualize and is more challenging to operationalize and measure. This study constructs a mathematical model and takes China as a case study to measure the vulnerability and sensitivity of China with its partners in the international grain trade. The results show that 1) the degree of interdependence between China and its grain trading partners is asymmetric, which generates trade vulnerability or economic power; 2) the vulnerability of China's food trade shows a high spatiotemporal heterogeneity among countries: the higher vulnerability zones are concentrated in North America and Northeast Asia, and the scope of the higher vulnerability zones tends to expand; 3) Our results also reveal that China also has different sensitivities to fluctuations in grain markets from different countries, and the higher sensitive zones of the grain trade in China are mainly distributed in America, Europe, and Oceania. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a methodology for food trade vulnerability assessment and examines the influence of international food trade on food security in importing countries, measured using the vulnerability index and sensitivity index. Nevertheless, the conclusions of this study can be considered preliminary, and there remains great potential for future studies to deepen and broaden our analyses further. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor (ILSTC) is a rail-sea intermodal transport corridor whose fundamental purpose is to closely connect western China and ASEAN through shortening the transport distance and trade time cost. Since the ILSTC is still a new initiative, there are few research focusing on its performance and implementation effects. Using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this paper attempts to analyze the economic impacts of the ILSTC since 2019 by simulating the scenario of transport time cost reduction. Results show that the ILSTC can promote the gross domestic product of China and the entire ASEAN by 0.20% and 0.84%, respectively; China's and the whole ASEAN's social welfare are both improved by more than US$10 billion; China's export and import with the whole ASEAN increases by 9.97% and 9.54%, respectively; The value-added trade flow contained in China's intermediate products which export to ASEAN countries first and finally return to China become larger; The impact on different sectors are heterogeneous, in which bilateral value-added and gross trade of grains and crops would increase most significantly; The value-added provided from service industry are also improved. Overall, the ILSTC plays a more important role in promoting the macro-economy of China and ASEAN countries than trade liberalization. On these basis, related conclusions for the promotion of commercial relationship between China and ASEAN countries are proposed, hoping to provide reference for traders and policy makers. • Measure the economic effects of China and ASEAN countries from the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor (ILSTC). • Expand the simulation results from the perspective of value-added trade to track changes in intra-industry trade. • Shed lights on better policy options between trade liberalization and the ILSTC for policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural informatization and agricultural green development are important components of modern agricultural development, and coordination between the two is an important foundation for achieving sustainable agricultural development. This paper uses data from the 13 major grain producing areas in China from 2009 to 2018 to analyze the coordination of the Internet development level and the agricultural ecological-efficiency, and it further investigates the degree of coupling and coordination between the two. The results of theis study are as follows.(1) The Internet development level of China's 13 main grain production areas has been continuously improving. The average Internet penetration rate increased from 0.25 in 2008 to 0.54 in 2018. (2) The agricultural ecological efficiency of China's main grain production areas has gradually improved. The average value of agricultural ecological efficiency increased from 0.45 in 2009 to 0.79 in 2018. (3) The Internet development level in China's main grain production areas and the continuous improvement of coordination and degree of coupling of the agricultural ecological efficiency show that the interaction between them has led to continuous improvements in the agricultural informatization development and agricultural green development. However, the coordination between the two still has significant room for growth, and there is a certain gap between the different regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the vocal authority of Chinese female rock singers’ voices as semiotic and cultural rebellion against male-dominated rock aesthetics and the accepted sounds of women’s singing in popular music. The first of the paper’s two sections challenges the gendered stereotypes associated with female singers, and argues for the artistic significance embedded in the voice to set the exploration of subversive femininities, and, more importantly, to unveil the polysomic cultural and social making process of a distinctive personal voice. The second and longest section of the paper first creates theoretical dialogues regarding Potter, De Certeau, Shepherd and Barthes’ theories of voice and culture, and then presents the case analysis of three prominent Chinese female rocker singers, Zhang Qianqian, Wu Hongfei and Kang Mao. The analysis discusses distinctive “feminine noise” by excavating the cultural and institutional forces embedded in the vocal styles of these singers. The semiotic features of grain, timbre, articulation and volume in the voice demonstrate how the complex acoustic soundscape of “feminine noises” reveals the regional, ethnic, class and sexual formation of female musicians’ gender identity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper outlines a model for the domestication of Panicum miliaceum (broomcorn millet) in Northern China. Data from 43 archaeological sites indicate a continuous increase in average grain size between 6000 and 3300 bc. After this date there is a divergence, with grain size continuing to increase in some populations, while others show no further size increase. The initial increase in grain size is attributed to selection during domestication, while later divergence after 3300 bc is interpreted as resulting from post-domestication selection. Measurements of grains from two archaeological populations of P. ruderale, showed grains were longer in length by 3300 bc than the earliest grains of P. miliaceum. This suggests this sub-species includes many feral, weedy and/or introgressed forms of P. miliaceum and therefore is probably not entirely representative of the true wild ancestor. It is argued that changes from shattering to non-shattering are contemporary with increasing grain size and the commencement of cultivation. The window of P. miliaceum domestication is therefore likely to lie between 7000 and 3300 bc. However, it is probable that a lengthy period of millet harvesting and small-scale management preceded its domestication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the data from the Cost-benefit Data of Farm Produce and the China Agricultural Yearbook, this paper aims to examine the spatial and temporal change characteristics of total grain production and its affecting factors. The results show that: 1) During 1980 to 2007, total grain production increased from 3.20 × 10 t to 5.02 × 10 t in China, with annual increasing rate of 1.68%. From the regional disparities, most of the regions present increasing trend of total grain production except for several regions with higher level of economic development; 2) Grain sown area decreased from 1.17 × 10 ha in 1980 to 1.06 × 10 ha in 2007, which has negative effect on total grain production; 3) The increase of grain yield per unit area caused by land use intensity changes contributed to the increase of total grain yield greatly. However, as the land use intensity showed that farmers pay more attention to labor-saving input but not yield-increasing input, the less enthusiasm of farmers in grain production may become an important constraint on future grain production increase in China; 4) Based on the results, this paper proposed different land management policies in different regions, for example, the government should protect cultivated land, promote large scale production. As to the less developed regions, the government should pay more attention to agricultural subsidies to promote farmers' enthusiasm in grain production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A vital approach for sustainable development is to achieve continuous synergies of ecosystem services (ESs). The implementation of Grain for Green Program (GFGP) in China has altered land use pattern and further affected ESs. The Loess Plateau, one of the crucial areas of GFGP, has a barren ecosystem. Thus, it is urgent to analyze trade-offs and synergies of ESs as it seeks to make rational use of natural resources. In this paper, three ESs (food supply (FS), water yield (WY), and habitat quality (HQ)) were selected to illustrate their relationships and changes during the implementation of GFGP. Accordingly, the correlation coefficient, the spatial autocorrelation, and the hotspot method were adopted to analyze the spatial agglomeration effect at the grid scale and the village scale. The obtained results indicated that the spatial distribution of the three ESs had their own characteristics. There is a synergy of WY and FS, and trade-offs of WY and HQ, and HQ and FS, respectively. Notably, the trade-offs and synergies of ESs were consistent at two scales, though the correlation coefficient was slightly different. Compared with the grid scale, the agglomeration effect on the village scale is more obvious. To promote region sustainable management, the interrelation of ESs should be taken into account in the eco-conservation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate Chinese farmers' adaptation behavior in the context of the rising cost of labor in agriculture. As the cost of labor increases, farmers will either reallocate their budget to different inputs or change the structure of agricultural production to maximize profit. Design/methodology/approach: The Rural Fixed Point Observation data set between 2004 and 2010 is employed in the empirical analysis of this study. Both the compensated and uncompensated demand elasticities with respect to wages are estimated by adopting the translog cost function and the profit function. Findings: The results show that labor input will drop down significantly as a response to rising wages. Land, fertilizer and intermediate inputs are net complements of labor, whereas machinery appears to be net substitute for labor. In addition, the authors also separate the expansion effect from the substitution effect and find that farmers will shift to grain production with intensive use of fertilizer and from wheat and corn to rice as a response to the rising cost of labor. Originality/value: This study adopts the classical household model to incorporate various adaptation behaviors of farmers into one framework and decomposes the total effect of the rising cost of labor on input demand into an expansion effect and a substitution effect, which provides a better understanding of farmers' adaptation behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate elements are important indicators of climate change in China's main grain-producing areas during the April–September growth season and affect the growth and yield of crops. This paper combines grain concentration and geographical detector to divide the North and South regions of China's main grain production. The linear trend and Morlet wavelet transform methods are used to analyse the characteristics of climate change based on observational climate data from April to September 1981–2015. The results show that the climate in the North region is warm and dry during the growth season, whereas the climate is warm and humid in the South region. The main periods of the change in temperature in the North and South regions are 3 years, and that in precipitation is 5 years, and that in sunshine hours is 3–4 years. Changes in the climate elements in various provinces show complex, varying and regional characteristics of cold-warm and dry-wet cycles. The changes in climate elements are significant and different climatic conditions and regions have various possible impacts on grain production in China during the growth season. For China's agricultural-economy sustainable development and grain security, the study suggests that governments should place more emphasis on climatic element changes during the growth season and invest more money in disaster prevention and mitigation, especially in the main grain-producing areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the crucial factors in grain storage is appropriate moisture content, which plays a significant role in reducing storage losses and ensuring quality. However, currently available humidity sensors on the market fail to meet the demands of modern large-scale grain storage in China in terms of price, size, and ease of implementation. Therefore, this study aims to develop an economical, efficient, and easily deployable grain humidity sensor suitable for large-scale grain storage environments. Simultaneously, it constructs humidity calibration models applicable to three major grain crops: millet, rice, and wheat. Starting with the probe structure, this study analyzes the ideal probe structure for grain humidity sensors. Experimental validations are conducted using millet, rice, and wheat as experimental subjects to verify the accuracy of the sensor and humidity calibration models. The experimental results indicate that the optimal length of the probe under ideal conditions is 0.67 m. Humidity calibration models for millet, rice, and wheat are constructed using SVM models, with all three models achieving a correlation coefficient R2 greater than 0.9. The measured data and model-calculated data show a linear relationship, closely approximating y = x, with R2 values of all three fitted models above 0.9. In conclusion, this study provides reliable sensor technological support for humidity monitoring in large-scale grain storage and processing, with extensive applications in grain storage and grain safety management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although China's grain production has reached nineteen consecutive harvests, the uncertainty of the current domestic and international environment has put more pressure on further increasing grain production in the future. For the past few years, agricultural socialization services have been crucial in boosting grain production and farmers' revenue by addressing the issue of land cultivation and farming methods. In this regard, the question of whether and how agricultural socialized services may resolve the present grain production conundrum is extremely practical. Therefore, the study employs the China Rural Revitalization Survey data of 3709 households. Based on the 2SLS model, stepwise regression method, and moderated effects model, it creatively takes into account a variety of agricultural production segments, investigates the mechanism of services on grain production from the standpoint of improved production efficiency and plot concentration, and further examines the effects of aging populations and regional variations in grain production areas. The study found the following: (1) The average proportion of grain production area of farmers in the sample is 49%, and 42% of farmers have purchased agricultural socialization services. (2) Agricultural socialization services can significantly promote farmers' grain cultivation behavior by facilitating connected transfers in and inhibiting connected transfers out to take advantage of plot concentration, and boosting the use of agricultural machines to enhance output efficiency. (3) The aging of the agricultural population will, to a certain extent, strengthen the promoting effect of agricultural socialization services on grain cultivation. Agricultural socialization services affect grain cultivation more in main grain-producing areas. Therefore, emphasizing the role of agricultural socialization services in accelerating the shift to moderate-scale operations, decreasing the non-grain component of the planting structure, and promoting the implementation of policies tailored to actual production needs are important steps to safeguard the production capacity of grain in different regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensuring national food security is a perennial topic, and securing the grain planting area is an essential solution. Cost savings at scale from agricultural insurance policy adjustments could be a powerful incentive for grain production. In this study, 527 data sets from 31 provinces in China from 2006 to 2022 were used as the sample, and the author applied a multi-stage DID model to measure the effects of agricultural insurance policy adjustments on the grain planting area and planting structure, as well as the influence mechanisms behind them. The results can be summarized as follows: Firstly, agricultural insurance policy adjustments can make a significant contribution to increasing the grain planting area, with some positive impact on the 'grain-oriented' planting structure. Secondly, agricultural insurance policy adjustments can significantly increase the grain planting area by increasing the application of agricultural machinery, but this mechanism does not affect the 'grain orientation' planting structure. Thirdly, agricultural insurance policy adjustments can have a significant positive impact on the grain planting area and 'grain—oriented' planting structure in both high- and low-risk areas, with low-risk areas being more affected than high-risk areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A complex interaction and mutual influence exists among landscapes, cultures, and landraces, with rice culture being a typical embodiment of this relationship. The conservation of landraces operates alongside preserving traditional practices. The Xishuangbanna region stands out as a hub for the genetic diversity of landraces, boasting rich genetic resources. Despite the diverse rice resources in this region, a comprehensive and systematic study has not been undertaken. Methods: From October to November 2023, we collected rice landraces under the on-farm conservation in 18 townships including Menghai, Mengla and Jinghong in Xishuangbanna. Employing semi-structured interviews and various methods, we investigated factors influencing the preservation and loss of rice landraces in the region. Statistical analysis was applied to the agronomic traits of collected local rice, encompassing indica or japonica, glutinous or non-glutinous, grain shape, and hull color as second category traits. The second category included quantitative traits like thousand grain weight and grain length. Rice diversity among different regions, traits, and ethnic groups was assessed using the Shannon–Wiener index. Additionally, clustering analysis via the UPGMA method depicted the distribution characteristics of the resources. Results: A total of 70 rice landraces were collected in the Xishuangbanna region, each exhibiting distinct characteristics. Differences were observed across regions, trait, naming, and ethnic groups. Diversity analysis revealed that Mengla had the highest diversity, followed by Menghai, while Jinghong exhibited the lowest diversity. The second category of traits displayed broader diversity than the first, with the Dai people's glutinous rice showcasing greater diversity than other ethnic groups. Cluster analysis categorized the 70 samples into seven groups at a genetic distance of 1.15. Ethnobotanical interviews emphasized the rapid loss of rice landraces resources in Xishuangbanna, with indigenous ethnic cultures playing a vital role in the conservation of rice landraces. Dai traditions, in particular, played a crucial role in protecting glutinous rice resources, showcasing a mutual dependence between Dai culture and glutinous rice. Conclusions: The rich natural environment and diverse ethnic cultures in Xishuangbanna have given rise to various rice landraces. The Dai, primary cultivators of glutinous rice with higher diversity, intertwine their traditional ethnic culture with the conservation of glutinous rice resources. At the same time, the preserving glutinous rice resources promotes the inheritance of Dai ethnic culture. However, rice landraces are facing the risk of loss. Hence, collecting and documenting rice landraces is crucial. Encourage local communities to sustain and expand their cultivation, promoting on-farm conservation. These measures contribute valuable germplasm and genes for rice breeding and serve as a means of cultural preservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food provided a material foundation for the development of human society and was an important cornerstone for ensuring national security. The Chinese government has always attached great importance to food security, which is not only related to economic development and social stability but also to national security and self-reliance. As the core region for grain production and the supply of staple food in China, the major grain-producing areas account for 78.25% of the total national grain output, truly earning the title of China's "granary". Considering the establishment of 13 major grain-producing regions across the country in 2004 as a quasi-natural experiment, the impact of policies in major grain-producing regions on ensuring national food security is examined using a difference-in-differences method based on inter-provincial panel data for 30 provinces across the country from 1997 to 2020, and the mechanisms of their effects are further analyzed. The findings show that (1) the main producing-areas policy has a significant driving effect on China's food security, with an average annual increase of 0.0351 units in the food-security index, and the impact is expanding year by year. (2) The policy of the main grain-producing provinces mainly plays a role in guaranteeing food security by expanding the scale of grain cultivation and the scale of family land management in the main grain-producing provinces, and the scale effect of grain cultivation has a more significant impact. Further adjusting and improving the policy of the main grain-producing areas and expanding the scale-driven effect of this policy are of great significance for transforming agricultural production methods and realizing a strong agricultural country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Textiles, grain, coins; people living in the Silk Road oasis of Turfan, 160 km south-east of Urumqi in today's Xinjiang, used all three items as money between 273 and 769. The city of Gaochang (some 40 km east of today's Turfan) was one of the most important cities on the northern route around the Taklamakan Desert, and many of its inhabitants were buried in the adjacent Astana and Karakhoja graveyards. The region's dry climate has preserved an extensive group of paper documents dating to before, and after, the Tang conquest of the city in 640. The residents of Turfan buried their dead with shoes, belts, hats and clothing made from recycled paper with writing on it. These records offer an unparalleled glimpse of how people living along the Silk Road used textiles as currency. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In recent years, China has become the world's largest importer of grain, and scholars have particularly examined whether China's grain import trade presents this effect. By applying cointegration analysis to trade statistics panel data of China's wheat, corn, rice, and soybean production and imports from January 2016 to December 2019, this paper empirically tests for the existence of the great country effect in China's grain import trade. The results show that during the sample period, there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the import volume, domestic price, and international price of the four major grains; the great country effect in the import trade of wheat and rice is not significant. The imports of corn and soybean present a great country effect to a certain extent in the short term; moreover, a change in the grain price in the international market does not lead to a change in China's grain import volume, which shows that the great country effect in China's grain import trade is distorted. Therefore, China should pay close attention to the impact of international factors on the fluctuation of its own food prices and enhance its ability to rationally utilize the international food market and international agricultural resources to ensure domestic food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Managing large-scale facilities for storing bulk grain is time-consuming, labour intensive, and often difficult to be thorough. This paper presents a computer algorithm for using temperature data to remotely monitor and inspect stored grain in large bulk storage facilities. The algorithm is based on the analysis of the spatiotemporal distributions of the temperature field in the stored grain. The characteristics and irregularities of the temperature field were analysed to detect changes in grain quantity (inventory) and quality. The algorithm was implemented in computer software and tested on 234,300 sets of temperature data from 592 different grain depots in 10 provinces in China. The average accuracy of correctly identifying grain quality and inventory problems was 94%. • 234,300 sets of temperature data in large grain storage facilities were analysed. • Spatiotemporal distributions of grain temperature were related to grain conditions. • An algorithm was developed to identify grain quality and quantity issues in storage. • The average accuracy of identification of 592 grain storage facilities was 94%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To define the complicated driving mechanisms of virtual water flow (VWF) in China's main grains production, this study firstly uses the entropy method and a K-means clustering approach to classify the driving types of VWF based on the data from 31 provinces in the mainland of China, and then applies the PLS structural equation model to analyze the driving mechanisms of VWF in four representative provinces or municipalities(Zhejiang, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang and Shanghai)selected by the classified driving types. The results show that the driving types of VWF can be divided into four types, namely, ecology-economy, ecology-environment, ecology-water use, and comprehensive type. In the four typical regions at provincial level, the social factors directly affect the VWF, and reversely it has a direct impact on the nature, environment and economy of the above four regions. In particular, the water use has a direct impact on the VWF in Heilongjiang attached to the ecologic-environmental type. The findings of this paper manifest that the social indicators rather than the indicators in water use play an important role in the VWF, that is, our findings further testify the status quo of China's VWF: the regions with rich water resources import the virtual water while the regions with poor water resources export the virtual water. Finally, for promoting the rational flow of virtual water we propose some corresponding adjustment countermeasures and suggestions that provide a theoretical basis for the rational allocation and management of water resources. • The application of PLS structural equation model reveals the complex driving mechanism of virtual water flow. • Reveals the social indicators play an important role in China's virtual water flow. • Proposed targeted countermeasures and suggestions to promote the rational flow of virtual water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the interrelationships between Chinese grain prices, farm households' income, their own-consumption of grain and their marketable surplus supply during the rural reform era. A Gorman polar indirect utility function is employed, from which a set of household grain supply and consumption functions are estimated. The integrated modelling approach recognizes the interdependence of household supply and consumption decisions. A set of compensated elasticities are derived to show the effects of grain prices, farm income and full household income on grain consumption and on-farm labour supply. The impact of own-consumption on marketable surplus supply is then gauged by estimating conditional and unconditional price elasticities of marketable surplus supply. The results point to the relatively strong positive effect of off-farm income on household's own-consumption of grain and the negative influence this has had on the marketable surplus of grain in China during the reform era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasingly critical ecological environment in the major grain-producing regions (MGPRs) of China has attracted widespread attention, but there is limited research at the city level. This study presented a land ecological security (LES) evaluation index system based on the pressure, state, response (PSR) model. It used the panel entropy weight method, kernel density function method, Moran index model, and spatial econometric model to measure LES of 158 cities in MGPRs from 2005 to 2020, and analyzed the spatial and temporal evolutionary trends, spatial divergence characteristics, and influencing factors of LES. The results are as follows. (1) From 2005 to 2020, the overall trend of urban LES level was rising, but it experienced an N-shape fluctuation trajectory of "rise-fall-rise". The state index and response index were on an upward trend, while the pressure index had a certain degree of decline. (2) LES was characterized by the spatial distribution of "high in the north and low in the south" and "high in the east and low in the west", while spatial heterogeneity became increasingly significant, with greater spatial differences within the northern cities and within the central cities. (3) There was a significant spatial spillover effect of LES, but the effect decreased with the expansion of spatial divergence. The spatial association patterns mainly exhibited "high-high" (HH) and "low-low" (LL) agglomerations. (4) The response layer was the main obstacle subsystem, while green space per capita, environmental governance investment, precipitation per capita, arable land per capita, and agricultural development were the main obstacle factors. (5) Economic development, fiscal decentralization, industrial advancement, and innovation input were the positive factors of LES, whereas financial development and industrial development were the negative factors of LES. The findings provide effective policy reference for the sustainable utilization of urban land resources. • Constructed an evaluation index system for land ecological security at the city level. • The land ecological security was generally on the rise, but with increasing spatial differences. • There was a significant spatial spillover effect of land ecological security. • The paper conducted obstacle factor identification and influencing factor analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cereal grains serve as the cornerstone of global nutrition, providing a significant portion of humanity's caloric requirements. However, the presence of fungal genera, such Fusarium, Penicillium, Aspergillus, and Alternaria, known for their mycotoxin-producing abilities, presents a significant threat to human health due to the adverse effects of these toxins. The primary objective of this study was to identify the predominant fungal contaminants in cereal grains utilized in breadmaking, as well as in flour and bread. Moreover, a systematic review, including meta-analysis, was conducted on the occurrence and levels of mycotoxins in wheat flour from the years 2013 to 2023. The genera most frequently reported were Fusarium, followed by Penicillium, Aspergillus, and Alternaria. Among the published reports, the majority focused on the analysis of Deoxynivalenol (DON), which garnered twice as many reports compared to those focusing on Aflatoxins, Zearalenone, and Ochratoxin A. The concentration of these toxins, in most cases determined by HPLC-MS/MS or HPLC coupled with a fluorescence detector (FLD), was occasionally observed to exceed the maximum limits established by national and/or international authorities. The prevalence of mycotoxins in flour samples from the European Union (EU) and China, as well as in foods intended for infants, exhibited a significant reduction compared to other commercial flours assessed by a meta-analysis investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dry matter (DM) and nitrogen (N) transport from nutritive organs to the grain is critical for cereal crop yield and protein content. There is limited research on the effects of slow-release or controlled-release fertilizers on dry matter and nitrogen partitioning in the nutrient organs of spring corn. A field trial was conducted in the National Corn Industry Technology System Xinzhou Comprehensive Experiment Station, China. The effects of different fertilizer management on yield, photosynthetic capacity, and nutrient partitioning of spring maize were studied. We modeled local farmers' planting and management practices (T3). Based on T3, we added a slow-release compound fertilizer (T2), which does not require a follow-up fertilizer, and a controlled-release formulated fertilizer (T1), which is highly efficient and has low carbon emissions. The net photosynthetic rate (Pn), transpiration rate (E), stomatal conductance (Gs), and intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci) were 23%, 18.5%, 18%, 10.5% and 19%, 10.9%, 7%, and 5.5% higher in T1 compared to those of T3 and T2, respectively, at the ripening stage. The contribution of post-flowering DM transport to the kernel of T1 was 46% and 41.4% higher than that of T3 and T2, respectively. The nitrogen content of the kernel of T1 was 35.2% and 18.5% higher than that of T3 and T2, respectively. After a comprehensive analysis, T1 prolonged the photosynthetic effect through adequate nitrogen supply, provided nutrients to the kernel, promoted maize nitrogen uptake and utilization, and ultimately improved yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To clarify the residue formation of prothioconazole and its main metabolite in wheat plants, the uptake, translocation, and metabolism of prothioconazole in wheat roots and leaves were investigated by nutrient solution culture and the spraying method. The results showed that prothioconazole and its metabolites showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing in wheat plants under two treatment methods, and the concentration of prothioconazole and its metabolites was higher in the high-concentration group (5000 μg/mL) than in the low-concentration group (1000 μg/mL). The transferability from stem to leaf was stronger than that from root to stem. In the nutrient solution culture, prothioconazole and its metabolites were mainly enriched in wheat roots. The concentration of prothioconazole in wheat roots increases with the increase in prothioconazole concentration and was significantly higher than the prothioconazole concentration on stems and leaves. In wheat leaves in the spraying method, prothioconazole and its metabolites were conducted from leaves to stems and roots up to the nutrient solution. Prothioconazole-desthio was detectable in wheat nutrient solution, while prothioconazole was not detected. Analysis of actual samples of 9 wheat grains and 28 flours showed that the residues of prothioconazole and its metabolites met the maximum residue limit (0.1 mg/mL) set in China and by the Codex Alimentarius Commission. The results will provide a theoretical basis for the scientific use of prothioconazole and food security assurance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To explore new strategies to improve the efficiency of land for grain production in China, this study empirically investigates the relationship between the grain imports competition effect and the efficiency of land for grain production from the perspective of virtual land trade based on the new-new trade theory and induced technological innovation theory. We obtained the following conclusions: (1) Overall, the efficiency of land for grain production showed a slow upward trend from 2003 to 2020, with a growth rate of 27.53%. Among them, the efficiency of land for grain production in the Huang-Huai-Hai and northeast regions has increased by 66.41% and 36.30%, respectively. (2) The grain imports competition effect reduces the profitability of domestic grain production through shocks and forces the improvement of China's grain production land efficiency. It is caused by the trade-for-competition effect. Importing a large number of grain products with lower land use costs reduces the profits of grain producers in the domestic market through shocks, gradually eliminating producers with less efficient land use, thus forcing the improvement of land use efficiency in domestic grain production. (3) The grain imports competition effect is stronger because the developed livestock industry in the northern region requires the import of large quantities of soybeans and corn, and other virtual land content is much lower than the domestic feed grain. Also, the marginal effect of the grain imports competition effect is stronger due to the presence of more producers with less efficient land for grain production in non-major grain-producing regions, which are more likely to be eliminated by market shocks from imports. This study verifies the applicability of the trade promotion competition effect and induces the technological innovation effect in the field of grain trade, which extends the research boundary of virtual land trade in grain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The upper-middle Huai River valley (HRV) is located in the transition zone in the middle of eastern China. Previous studies have shown that the past populations in the upper HRV obtained plant food through gathering and cultivation of both rice and millet during the middle Neolithic. However, for the middle HRV it is not very clear what methods were used by humans to obtain plant food in that time. In this paper, starch grain analysis was carried out on 17 stone tools and 29 cauldron pottery sherds unearthed at Shunshanji (8.5-7.0 kyr BP), which is known as the earliest Neolithic site in the middle HRV excavated so far. Here, ancient starches from Coix lacryma-jobi, Triticeae, Oryza sativa, Trichosanthes kirilowii and one unidentified specie were recovered. This study contributes to the limited knowledge of food strategies as observed in the middle HRV. It demonstrates that both gathering and cultivation of rice took place during the middle-Neolithic. Among the identified species, Coix lacryma-jobi appears to have been the main plant food at Shunshanji. Moreover, it is clear that Oryza sativa was not consumed as much as other plant species according to the occurrence frequency of different starch grains. Starch grains were also found on the used surfaces of grinding stone implements as well as pestles, which means that these stone tools were used for food processing. In addition, axes from Shunshanji may also have been used for food processing as well as wood working because starches were also found on the edge of axes. Information about subsistence strategies and tool use at Shunshanji will also be helpful to understanding the utilization of plants and agricultural development in the middle HRV during the early-middle Neolithic period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high harvest losses associated with the mechanical harvesting of maize in China are currently a major barrier to the adoption of this technology. This paper summarizes works of literature regarding harvest losses from the combine harvesting of maize in China and abroad. The main findings are as follows: (1) In 2012-2019, 2987 samples data obtained from the major maize production areas of China showed that the average harvest loss was 345.2 kg/hm² (3.5% of the average yield), with losses ranging from 0 to 9288.5 kg/hm²; (2) The harvest losses from combine harvesting are mainly caused by the dropping of ears. The ear losses include the pre-harvest loss caused by ear abscission, damage caused by maize borer, lodging, and the ear loss during combine harvesting, and the main pre-harvest loss is caused by lodging; (3) Harvest losses are affected by maize variety, planting mode, cultivation management, pests and diseases, weather conditions during harvesting, harvest date, combine harvester type, harvester adjustment, operator proficiency, and the terrain conditions of the maize field; (4) The harvest losses from combine harvesting are also related to the type of header, feeding and threshing methods, the adjustment of header stripping clearance, feeding amount, forward speed, cylinder or rotor speed, and the clearance between the cylinder and the concave of the harvester. However, the combine losses mainly come from header losses. In order to reduce the harvest losses, the following solutions were proposed: (1) Breed and select maize varieties which are resistant to lodging, especially during the field drying of mature grains, as well as those resistant to maize borer and stalk rot; (2) Select varieties suitable for grain harvest--which requires matching the accumulated-temperature demand of the maize hybrids, optimal plant density, row spacing, and irrigation and fertilizer management with the light and heat conditions of the production area while cultivating uniform populations and healthy plants--as well as preventing and controlling damage from maize borer, stalk rot, and ear rot, harvesting at the appropriate time; (3) Develop and select advanced maize combine harvesters, formulate standardized operating procedures for harvesting machinery, and standardize field operation; (4) select appropriate agricultural machinery and agronomic practices, and improve the training of maize producers and harvester operato [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The efficacy of using maize (Zea mays L.) as a suitable substitute for other crops with high arsenic (As) accumulation in As-contaminated farmlands remains debated. Here, the As uptake capacity and the stability of accumulated As of different maize cultivars were studied using pot and field experiments, outdoor investigations and literature data analysis. When the total and available soil As levels were 238.8 and 8.1 mg/kg, respectively, grain As ranged from 0.03 to 0.07 mg/kg, significantly lower than the acceptable As limit (0.5 mg/kg) for maize in China. The results of field investigations and literature data analysis also supported this observation. Maize is a crop with low grain As, thus, making it suitable for substitution planting in As-contaminated farmlands. Further, grain As concentration varied among different maize cultivars. The planting of normal and waxy maize is prioritized over the sweet maize as the first one has lower available bio-concentration factor (aBCF) of 0.007 for grain and higher accumulated As stability among its cultivars (CV < 10%) than those for sweet maize (aBCF = 0.01 and CV = 35.5%). Arsenic compartmentalization in the roots and low As upward migration into the grain were responsible for the low grain As of maize. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Tree ring is an ideal indicator of annual total grain production parameters. • Tree growth synchronized with grain production, and concurrent response to climate. • Reconstruction of total grain productivity based on dendrochronology. • To explore the relationship between total grain sown area and climate change. Climate change affects the growth of regional vegetation; both trees and grain crops often change concurrently, such that the annual radial growth of trees shows consistent inter-annual variations with the total grain crop productivity. However, it remains unclear whether they exhibit concurrent responses to climate factors, and that there lacks of the study on long-term high-resolution variations of grain crops productivity. This paper employs a Pinus massoniana tree-ring series from the Tongbai Mountains to analyze the correlations between tree-ring chronology, local climate data and grain productivity indicators (i.e., total sown grain areas (TSA), total grain outputs (TGO), and average grain yield per hectare (YPH)) of Henan Province in central China. The results indicate that temperature in March and August was the main limiting factor on tree growth, and the best concurrent relationship with tree growth was TSA, which has a correlation of 0.747 (p < 0.001) during 1959–2020. Therefore, a 124-year TSA series in Henan Province was reconstructed using tree-ring data from the Tongbai Mountains, which reveals there were two distinct low periods of total grain sown area in the 1920 s-1930 s and 1980 s-2000 s. There are significant cycles of about 2.57a (p < 0.01), 2.89a (p < 0.05), and 10.95a (p < 0.1), indicating that vegetation growth might be affected by large-scale climate forcing, such as ENSO (2-7a cycle) and sunspot activity (11a cycle). Overall, this study outlines a new approach to understand long-term changes in grain production, which is conducive to grain management and socioeconomic sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]