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It cannot be assumed that the United Kingdom and European Union's current shared foreign-policy interests will be saved from the broader disruption of Brexit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The new president of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, who resisted the civilian-military rule (1964–1985) in her youth, has been engaging civil society and congress in security and defence issues for the production of the first national defence white paper. Her performance in this area is a good indication of the state of democracy in post-transition Brazil. Using the literature on third wave democracy transition and consolidation, this piece examines how previous presidents dealt with the main security and defence issues in order to identify change and continuity early in the Rousseff administration and also what sort of challenges the new president must rise to. As part of Latin America, Brazil lies in a largely demilitarized, but at the same time extremely violent region of the world. As an emerging soft power, Brazil has recently made defence a bigger issue in the national political agenda but still struggles to deal with its dark history of human rights abuses in the civilian-military dictatorship. Rousseff has shown an awareness of civilian-military issues, but it is still unclear whether she has enough political capital and whether that will translate into the required political support to democratically define the role of the armed forces in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent debate in the UK has questioned the United Kingdom’s understanding of strategy. This paper examines the nature of strategy in the context of UK security, particularly its recent attempts to craft a National Security Strategy and conduct a Strategic Defence and Security Review. Using a combination of official sources, published literature and interviews with officials closely involved in the process it suggests that there is much that is logical in the NSS and SDSR and that it represents a more realistic security strategy than hitherto attempted. However, it also highlights that flaws in the process and UK thinking have led to a number of inconsistencies and concludes that, lacking a true National Strategy, if strategists do not provide realistic feedback to policy-makers then political ambition will continue to outstrip ways and means and so UK security strategy will be exposed to potential failure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strategy has become a term so widespread that it has lost virtually all value. Its meaning has expanded so that it no longer applies solely to the application of military power. Even for those who seek to apply the discipline of strategy to matters that affect national, regional or even global security, the impact of transnational factors and the increasing imperative to act as part of a coalition or alliance suggest that strategic theory is increasingly different from practice. Multilateral responses challenge the clear articulation of ends, ways and means, and the act of intervention changes the context in ways that are often impossible to anticipate. This paper explores oblique decision-making, and its role in addressing complex problems for which scientific processes seem ill-suited. It challenges the assumption that shortage of resources and inadequate analysis of the theatre of operations are at the heart of our difficulties with strategy. Greater problems result from failures to clearly articulate the purpose for which we are employing military, and other instruments of power, and from identifying ends for which the prescribed ways and means are mismatched. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the foundations and rationale for Australian reliance on US assurances of extended nuclear deterrence. The Australian model of extended nuclear deterrence is marked by its lack of public presence, a lack of certainty about its standing and character in US eyes, its lack of a direct nuclear threat, and its resurgence at a time when nuclear abolition possibilities are being embraced by the leader of the deterrence provider. Australian policy amounts to a claim that the nuclear guarantee is necessary 'just in case'- though without any plausible specifics. The fundamental questions remain - for Australia as for other recipients of extended nuclear deterrence assurances - what threats, what probabilities, what alternatives? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Could a growing transatlantic rift regarding the use of military force outside Europe propel the political break-up of Canada? The first part of the paper argues that, in addition to its liberal-democratic values, Canada's bicultural national identity accounts for much of its Atlanticist international security policy. The second part of the paper examines the prevalence of this Atlanticist strategic culture in the face of two contemporary cases of transatlantic (dis)unity, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, in order to assess the potentially disruptive nature of transatlantic discord on Canada's political unity. It finds, somewhat counter-intuitively, that transatlantic unity - rather than disunity - could more probably generate national unity crises in Canada in the event of continuing 'out-of-area' military operations undertaken by NATO allies. This is mainly because of a growing tendency among Quebec's sovereignist political elites' to mobilise Quebecers' distinct attitudes regarding overseas military expeditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Editors of the journal Cold War History have the pleasure to present this paper as the winner of the Best Paper Award at the last Graduate Conference on the Cold War, jointly organised every year by the University of California, Santa Barbara, the George Washington University, Washington DC, and the London School of Economics and Political Science, London. It is not often that a paper, as was the case with this one, won unanimous endorsement from prominent Cold War scholars from all three institutions, present at the Conference. The last Conference was organised in April 2009, at LSE, in London and the host of the next one to be held on 22-24 April 2010 will be the George Washington University. By continuing with the practice we inaugurated last year, we wish to underline our commitment to promoting and encouraging new and substantive research of the Cold War by young scholars. As the colonial system collapsed quicker than anticipated in the post-Second World War period, the Soviet Union found itself unprepared, and it hurriedly tried to build the institutions necessary to conduct an active foreign, economic and military policy in the newly emerging states. The development of the Sino-Soviet split triggered a Chinese challenge to this Soviet push for influence, with Beijing portraying the USSR as another white, imperialist power that valued relations with the West over the cause of national liberation. Moscow was consequently forced to adapt its policy, particularly by taking a more militant approach, in order to neutralise the Chinese threat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The broadened and deepened notion of security has been evolving in two dimensions, one primarily intellectual and the other concerned more with political practice and policy. This paper briefly describes these dimensions, and then critically examines the acceptance of the new notion of security in the form a security-is-development thesis in South African security policy. This case shows how the security-is-development thesis affects the functions of security agencies and legitimates their anti-democratic behaviour. The case serves as a cautionary tale about how an intellectual construct, movement and school, originally intended to be a critique of state behaviour, can become a tool of state power at the expense of democracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When the European Union started its Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), it left the elaboration and implementation of decisions having defense implications for the Western European Union (WEU) for the next six years. NATO partners Norway, Iceland, and Turkey were invited as “associate members,” enabling them to participate in the activities and regular meetings of the WEU Council. This paper argues that the WEU arrangement could serve as an example for an interim arrangement for areas of mutual interest. After an examination of past practice on CFSP and European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP), the paper formulates possible future options not only in the security field but also in energy, justice, and home affairs in combating organized crime, a new “economic zone,” and the implications of the EU Neighborhood Policy, where institutional and practical arrangements might serve as milestones in the negotiating process without detracting from the ultimate objective of full membership. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The build-up of Japan's military apparatus in the 1990s and 2000s has been often regarded by security analysts as indicative of a departure from the country's Cold War strategic posture. Japan appears to be engaged in a process of militarisation that is eroding the foundations of its 'exclusively defence-oriented' policy. In the case of the archipelago's naval strategy, such assessments overlook the longstanding significance of a core feature of its defence policy, namely the surveillance of maritime crossroads delivering the wealth of the country. The paper reassesses the evolution of the Japanese strategy since the Cold War by examining the development of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force's submarine force, one of the key components of the defensive shield for these crossroads. The paper argues that with the changes in the security environment of the 1990s, Japan already fielded a mature force with state-of-the-art submarines, and that the rise of a new naval competitor aiming at controlling key strategic points along Japan's sea lanes reconfirmed the critical importance of submarine operations to Japanese national security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout the Cold War, Irish national security was detached from Western priorities and its policy attracted little academic interest. But such detachment has become increasingly problematic. This paper argues that the threat of international terrorism underlines the need for a change of attitude among security scholars and policy managers alike. Irish policy on terrorism places at risk the security of other Western states and highlights deficiencies in the European Union's fight against terrorism. New evidence is explored here regarding Irish air and sea security, intelligence systems, and immigration procedures, underlining the international implications of each. Trenchant insights and reforms emerged from Irish experience in the weeks that followed the 11 September attack. The policies framed in that period, however, have not changed in any substantial way since. Within the literature on Irish security there are three key explanations for the shape of national policy: 1) political pressures on the security agencies; 2) financial pressures on these agencies; and 3) Anglo-Irish security considerations. Domestic deficiencies create problems for broader counter-terrorism efforts, especially at EU level. This challenges the premise that individual member states will help secure the Union as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Problems of violent youth groups have escalated in Indonesia, following economic recession, unemployment, and weakened state institutions. Young people have beers hit by the lack of income and broken expectations In consequence, youth groups emerge and arrange for members' economic revenue as well as identity creation and confidence. Religion in some cases is used to legitimize violence and to strengthen the boldness of group members. The paper offers a brief overview of gangster (preman) traditions in Indonesia. Empirical findings on violent youth groups in the two selected provinces are presented within a multi-factor analytical framework, where the need for income and identity strengthening, political élite interests, and the lack of law enforcement contribute to explaining criminal and vigilante violence, Interviews with leaders and members of movements engaged in violent actions offer insights into a problem that threatens national security and control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris terrorist attacks in January and November 2015 have changed the relationship between French society and security. For the first time since the end of the Second World War, the assumption that France is experiencing a new form of territorial war is explicit in the public debate. It has reinforced the strong conviction among the French politicians and diplomats that security requires close cooperation with the USA and a renouncement of the Gaullist paradigm of exceptionalism. This paper analyses why the terrorist attacks have been perceived in France as a form of territorial war. Second, it explains why terrorism contributes to a growing mistrust of the French public vis-à-vis the European Union. Finally, it shows the reasons but also the limits of French military activism outside Europe, in close connection with the US-led strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article compares Russia's legal justifications for the use of force against Ukraine and past U.S. uses of force and the accompanying legal justifications for such force. Topics discussed include survey of six U.S. military operations, and any gaps or inconsistencies in the U.S.'s legal analysis, overview of Russia's stated justifications for invading Ukraine, and recommendations for a legal information strategy accompanying uses of military force.

The article focuses on the concept of freedom of the press in relations to the case of the disclosure by the "New York Times" magazine of secret report on the involvement of the U.S. in Indochina. It states that the magazine disclosed excerpts of the report commissioned by Robert McNamanra in 1967-1968 as defence secretary, which shows that the government was much interested in their share of global power than the consequences for South Vietnamese. It says that the U.S. Government called to stop the publication which they argued could affect the national security and international relationship with other governments. However, the U.S. Supreme Court decided to allow the publication of other excerpts wherein the Supreme Court Justices argued that it is within the freedom of the press.

The military organization is one of the oldest, the most consistent and the most complex organizations, which in its evolutionary development had begun with the elementary forms of organization and stochastic structure, and reached the most complex ones, surpassing the defence-security needs, at least in some countries. The recognition that it can have a favorable or unfavorable influence on the development of the society and the state is a solid base for causing interest and doing continuous research. The starting point is the perception that several factors influence its establishing and development – the general and national historical experience, the region, the population, the socio–stratification characteristics of the community, the economic, technical-technological, military doctrine, and the characteristics of the political system; all having different influence. The aim of this paper will be to prove or, at least, raise the issue of the assumption on the importance of the national historical experience and its role in shaping the military organization in Macedonia during the Second World War. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the "revolving door" phenomena in the military sector in the US. The revolving door refers to the back-and-forth movement of personnel between the government and private sector. We examine the structure of the revolving door and explain how its very nature leads to the perpetuation of the permanent war economy. This analysis yields several important implications. First, the dynamics of the revolving door shape the military-industrial complex in a way that serves the narrow interests of select elites rather than the broad interests of citizens. Second, because the perverse incentives are a product of the institutional structure of the US military sector, the negative consequences are also structural and cannot be solved by increased oversight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper sheds light on a relatively underexplored aspect of Japan’s recent security changes by examining the subnational level where the impact has been far-reaching. It focuses on Japan’s maritime frontier zone: the Yaeyama Islands located at the southwestern end of the Japanese archipelago and administered as part of Okinawa Prefecture. It argues that while Yaeyama militarization has been primarily a national response to China’s portrayed assertiveness in the East China Sea, it has also been facilitated by the strategic actions of local political elites, in cooperation with sympathetic extra-local forces. Political elites from two islands, Yonaguni and Ishigaki, have been motivated primarily by diverging material and ideational factors. Yonaguni elites have viewed militarization largely through the prism of “compensation politics.” Their counterparts in Ishigaki have been driven by more ideological objectives, seeking militarization for deterrence purposes and otherwise transforming the island into a rightist breeding ground in defence of Japanese territory. Yaeyama militarization has not only diminished enthusiasm for seeking autonomy and enhancing economic security through microregional cooperation, but has also enhanced local-level insecurities while creating and exacerbating divisions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Hungarian security policy thinking has gone through basic and crucial changes in the past two decades. As a result, we can see a kind of 'evolution", which began from a former Soviet satellite status and continued through a role seeking period to active membership in the Euro-Atlantic community. One of the most significant security and defence policy changes can be seen with regard to the shaping and restructuring of the Hungarian Defence Forces. This paper seeks to explain this evolution in the period of 1989-1999 with the support of the Janos Bolyai Scholarship awarded by the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the failure of a small Peninsula Shield Force (PSF) to protect Kuwait in the lead up to the Gulf War in 1991, Sultan Qaboos, the ruler of Oman, proposed to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that it develop a large-standing army of 100,000 troops. Although Oman was not wholly successful in achieving its objective during the main negotiation period up to 1995, it did manage to contribute to small shifts in GCC security policy during periods of conflict. Nevertheless, it took the Arab Uprisings in 2011 to achieve a fundamental re-orientation of GCC security policy which favoured higher numbers of PSF troops. This paper analyses the factors which facilitated and constrained Omani policy during the 20-year period and argues that Oman is only able to further its security interests when they are framed in a way that are conducive to the overriding political interests of the GCC. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article argues that growing civilian direction of the defense sector should generate three consequences: greater interoperability of the armed forces, a stronger emphasis on operations outside the national territory (here called externalism), and better defense-diplomacy coordination. An original investigation of the makeup of the drafting committees of three of Brazil's national security strategy documents since the mid-1990s shows that varying rates of civilian participation in defense policymaking generate an impact on defense policy directives commensurate with theoretical expectations. Defense policy implementation, however, has found varying degrees of success. Using new and systematic quantitative data, this study demonstrates that interoperability has made progress, defense-diplomacy coordination is at an intermediate stage, and externalism, albeit not a failure, is still far from a success. Externalism's performance is a consequence of rising crime, deficient police forces, the pragmatism of civilian elites, and public support for law-and-order military missions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the nuclear policy for 2007. The author mentioned that India's nuclear capabilities and ambitions continue to progress and their nuclear policy struggled to keep up. He also included a statement from the Indian Defense Minister Shri A.K. Antony that said that the country will take all steps to give a minimum negative motivational influence to the armed forces in equal to the size and strategic position of India in the world. A discussion of the different military branches in India is also provided.

The article focuses on the inadequacies of Marine Corps Command-Directed Investigations (CDIs), highlighting issues such as lack of training for investigating officers, deficient structure, and concerns over independence. It discusses the significant ramifications of flawed investigations, both for individuals subject to investigation and for national security, while proposing recommendations to address these deficiencies.

Papua, region in eastern Indonesia which has a separatist movement threatening Indonesia's sovereignty. Soldiers of Indonesia National Army (TNI) as a means of national defense seeks to integrate the TNI's strengths through the establishment of a Joint Defense Area Command III (Kogabwilhan-III) defense policy which covers the Maluku and Papua regions. The communication dimension is seen as important in the success of policy implementation, so the purpose of this research is to analyze the communication dimension in the implementation of Kogabwilhan III policy and identify the factors that influence the implementation of Kogabwilhan III from a communication perspective and what the challenges are. This study using a qualitative descriptive method to explore cases in depth from various sources of information at a certain time. The results of the study explain that the implementation of the Kogabwilhan III policy in the communication dimension has three indicators, i.e. transmission, clarity and consistency indicators. Reviewing the challenges and obstacles, innovation is needed in the communication dimension by adding indicators of local wisdom. Moreover, policy implementation of Kogabwilhan III is divided into two forms of communication: internal communication and external communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present article is based on a number of key assumptions as well as a conceptual system of military security, which is anchored in the theoretical system of security studies. Since these two disciplines are relatively young, there is a need to analyze them for the purpose of determining the basic theoretical apparatus in the field of security studies. This article presents an original definition and description of the fundamental nature of security as well as a general description of military security. It includes the vital domain of the subject's own activity leading to the maintenance of the proper level of security. The paper contains original definitions of such basic categories as security, state security and military security. Indeed, much of the content is based on theories used in previous research, but these have served merely as "bricks" that are used to fill in the already existing theoretical structure. Thus, through a specific redesign, a structure compatible with the basic tenets of security studies has been devised, also taking into account recent results of other sciences that cover military affairs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Egypt plays a pivotal role in the security of the Middle East as the doorway to Europe and its military expenditure reflects its involvement in the machinations of such an unstable region, showing considerable variation over the last 40 years. These characteristics make it a particularly interesting case study of the determinants of military spending. This paper specifies and estimates an econometric model of the Egyptian demand for military spending, taking into account important strategic and political factors. Both economic and strategic factors are found to play a role in determining military burden/spending, with clear positive effects of lagged military burden, suggesting some sort of institutional inertia, plus negative output and net exports effects. The strategic effect as a result of the impact of Israel’s military burden is mostly positive and significant, though its impact is reduced when the impact of important strategic events are taken into account. The military spending of Egypt’s allies Jordan and Syria generally seems to have had no effect on Egypt’s spending. These results are consistent over a range of econometric techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The aim of this paper is to analyze fundamental factors which form and profoundly shape security and defense policy of the Republic of Latvia. One can argue that historical background, geographical location, common institutional history within the former Soviet Union, the Russia factor, the relative smallness of the territory of state and the population, the ethnic composition of the population, the low density of the population and rather limited financial and manpower resources available for the defense of the Republic of Latvia are the key factors of influence on the state security and defense policy. The core principles of the security and defense policy of Latvia are the membership in powerful global military alliance of NATO and bilateral strategic partnership with the United States. However, security and defense cooperation among the three Baltic States as well as enhanced cooperation within the Baltic-Nordic framework is seen as an important supplementary factor for the increased security of the Republic of Latvia. Latvia has developed a sustainable legal and institutional framework in order to contribute to state security and defense; however, security challenges and significant changes within the global security environment of the twenty-first century will further challenge the ability of the Republic of Latvia to sustain its current legal framework, and more importantly, current institutional structure of Latvian security and defense architecture. Significant internal and external challenges will impact the fundamental pillars of Latvian security and defense policy, such as American strategic shift to the Pacific, and lack of political will to increase defense budgets in European part of NATO. It has to be clear that very independence, security and defense of the Republic of Latvia depend on the ability of NATO to remain an effective organization with timely and efficient decision-making, and the ability of the United States to remain militarily effective and committed to the security and defense of Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

North Korean insecurity is the focus of this paper. Kim Jong Un's ship left the foggy port without a modified navigation chart from his father. The main elements of a track chart are maintaining the dictatorship, the nuclear-weapon policy, and the military-first policy. In this sense, Barry Buzan's Regional Security Complex Theory is appropriate because security complexes in this region are action-reaction phenomena, a systemic approach to security analysis, and lying in the lines of amity and enmity. The military-first policy is not simply a policy but a last measure for survival. This policy does not consider the influence of the Regional Security Complex (RSC) and the world. Indeed, due to the long-term military-first policy, the North Korean economy can hardly breathe by itself. Also, the regime must consider the trend of the RSC and the world in terms of human rights. On April 13, 2012, North Korea's new constitution proclaimed its status as a nuclear-armed nation. However, the aftermath would be very serious. The world will not support the North Korean regime on any issue. Consequently, the regime's isolation will be deeper and more serious. It has to waste more and more money until it gives up the nuclear dream. Furthermore, the domino effect will appear in the region. Therefore, members of nuclear-armed states have a responsibility toward North Korea's insecurity and future. As the main actor, South Korea needs to assume a more positive role in dealing with North Korea's insecurity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article cites U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower's unique approach to the formulation of security policy. It highlights the failure of most presidents to fully comprehend the process of formulating grand strategy, particularly the utilization of the National Security Council (NSC) in formulating security policy. It highlight's Eisenhower's commitment to a studied development of U.S. national security strategy and his relevance for today's national security professionals and strategists.

A murky line separates the tactics and objectives between counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, United Nations Peacekeeping, and international civilian policing. Deploying the wrong national security model at the wrong time can escalate or prolong violence rather than mitigate it. However, prior to 2001, very few criminal justice scholars compared state security models on any level. This paper examines all four state security models in a comparative framework. It is divided into three sections. The first section defines each national security model and provides examples. The second section examines the differences or similarities that exist between the models. Finally, the third section addresses why it is critical to understand the security context and model integration in order to achieve long-term national security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the separate roles and functions of the police and the military in the context of the current security environment in the Caribbean, which now includes such diverse factors as trans-national organised crime, corruption, links between politics and crime, natural disasters, oil dependency, high levels of public debt and the chronic marginalisation of large sectors of the population. Some have argued that the Caribbean is unlikely to be invaded, and that the military can therefore be merged into the police as a cost-saving measure. This paper argues, by contrast, that the rapidly-evolving challenges require that the roles, functions and training of the police and the military be kept separate and distinct, and that the policy community needs to understand why the purpose and architecture of the training has to be appropriate for the different missions of the respective organisations. This argument is supported by a model of discipline which defines the different organisational and individual roles and functions. It is further argued that it is essential that the police forces of the Caribbean continue to move further from their former quasi-military roles, functions and attitudes, and become fully modern police services. The paper accepts that there will continue to be a need for specialist units in the police services that will have paramilitary roles and functions, but concludes that these specialist units should not define the normal role and function of mainstream policing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to explore how a particular narrative focused on population-centric counterinsurgency shaped American strategy during the Autumn 2009 Presidential review on Afghanistan, examine the narrative's genealogy and suggest weaknesses and inconsistencies that exist within it. More precisely our ambition is to show how through a process of 'rhetorical re-description' this narrative has come to dominate contemporary American strategic discourse. We argue that in order to promote and legitimate their case, a contemporary 'COIN Lobby' of influential warrior scholars, academics and commentators utilizes select historical interpretations of counterinsurgency and limits discussion of COIN to what they consider to be failures in implementation. As a result, it has become very difficult for other ways of conceptualizing the counterinsurgency problem to emerge into the policy debate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between strategic culture and defence policies has not yet been much explored. Australia and New Zealand provide some evidence of the impact of strategic culture on defence policy. Australia has a dominant strategic culture which is strong enough to prompt both the major political parties to adopt realist defence policies, even though Labor has a traditionally 'idealist' outlook. Until the 1970s, New Zealand had a similar dominant strategic culture which influenced both major political parties, but it was always less strong than Australia's. In recent years, the Labour Party has rejected that culture, and allowed an alternative strategic culture based on its ideology to influence its defence policies. The result has been that on the last two occasions when Labour has been in government, New Zealand's defence policy has changed dramatically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the end of the Cold War, Japan became very active in its security policy. How can we explain this phenomenon? This essay argues that (neo-) realist settings (the end of the Cold War, the Taepodong missile launch) have triggered changes in Japanese domestic security culture, which subsequently affected Japanese security policy. In spite of rationalist theorists' criticism of the constructivist approach for not being able to clarify independent and dependent variables, this essay attempts to elucidate the relationship between security culture and policies thereof. By utilizing "cultural process-tracing," this paper investigates how cultural elements become linked and internalized into policymaker-level and illustrates the causal relationship between these two. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explores the changes affected by the National Security Council paper 68 or NSC 68, which assessed the political-military strategy of the United States under the administration of President Harry Truman. Restoration of American military power; Rationale for US national security for much of the Cold War; US Army's balanced-force approach; Arguments for a new military structure.

This article represents the first attempt to examine the Chinese elite's threat perception of Japan using statistics to analyse what, if any, differences exist among the People's Liberation Army, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chinese economic institutes. It seeks to answer two questions that have not previously been addressed in the literature. First, has there been a change in perception of the Japanese threat in these three sectors over time? And if so, what can we deduce about the causes of this change? This study finds that there have indeed been two major shifts in China's threat perception of Japan since the 1980s, one in the late 1980s and the other in the mid-1990s. It also finds that there were no differences between sectors as to the direction and timing of these shifts. It suggests that Japan's military build-up in the late 1980s and the strengthening of the US-Japan alliance from 1996 onwards are what prompted these shifts in China's threat perception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]