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It is very important to identify the possible mechanism of precipitation generation in southeastern China. To determine the weather type (WT) that is likely to generate precipitation, the Jenkinson–Collison classification method was applied to wintertime daily mean sea level pressure data across southeastern China. We found that all WTs with easterly components are prone to generate precipitation. These WTs were merged into one type named the ensemble of easterly wind components (the EE type). The persistence and transformation rules of the EE type are studied. Anticyclone type is the easiest one to convert to EE type. The persistence and transformation rules of the EE type provide favourable conditions for the formation of precipitation. Furthermore, we examined the influence of two common teleconnections (Western Pacific [WP] and Eurasian [EU]) in East Asia in winter on the WTs. When WP is in the positive phase and EU is in the negative phase, EE type weather patterns will appear frequently in southeastern China. At this time, it is most conducive to the formation of precipitation. On the one hand, warm and cold air converge in this area. On the other hand, the prevailing east wind can provide sufficient water vapour. The study implies that whether a WT is easy to produce precipitation can be judged by wind direction. The results will help us better understand the physical mechanism of precipitation generation in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is very important to identify the possible mechanism of precipitation generation in southeastern China. To determine the weather type (WT) that is likely to generate precipitation, the Jenkinson–Collison classification method was applied to wintertime daily mean sea level pressure data across southeastern China. We found that all WTs with easterly components are prone to generate precipitation. These WTs were merged into one type named the ensemble of easterly wind components (the EE type). The persistence and transformation rules of the EE type are studied. Anticyclone type is the easiest one to convert to EE type. The persistence and transformation rules of the EE type provide favourable conditions for the formation of precipitation. Furthermore, we examined the influence of two common teleconnections (Western Pacific [WP] and Eurasian [EU]) in East Asia in winter on the WTs. When WP is in the positive phase and EU is in the negative phase, EE type weather patterns will appear frequently in southeastern China. At this time, it is most conducive to the formation of precipitation. On the one hand, warm and cold air converge in this area. On the other hand, the prevailing east wind can provide sufficient water vapour. The study implies that whether a WT is easy to produce precipitation can be judged by wind direction. The results will help us better understand the physical mechanism of precipitation generation in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme precipitation has often occurred in Southeastern China, while the possible mechanism is not clear. In order to bridge the scale gap between large-scale circulation and extreme precipitation, in this paper, the k-means clustering technique—a common method of weather-type (WT) analysis—was applied to regional 850-hPa wind fields. The reasonable determination of k values can make the later WT analyses more reliable. Thus, the Davies–Bouldin (BD) criterion index is used in the clustering process, and the optimal value of the k was determined. Then, we obtain and analyze the frequency, persistence, and progression of WTs. The rule of transitions from one WT to another may help explain some of the physical processes in winter. We found a special evolutionary chain (WT3→WT1→WT2→WT5→WT3) that can be used to explain the cold wave weather process in winter. Different WTs in the evolutionary chain correspond well to different stages of the cold wave weather process (gestation (WT3), outbreak (WT1), eastward withdrawal (WT2), and extinction (WT5)). In addition, we found that there are obvious differences in precipitation between December and February. After reassembling five kinds of WTs, two modes are formed: dry WTs and wet WTs. Our research shows that the intraseasonal variation of precipitation can be attributed to the fluctuation between the wet and dry WTs, and the different phases of teleconnection can correspond well with it. For example, the relative frequencies of wet WTs are higher in February. These WTs correspond to the positive phase of the WP and ENSO, the negative phase of the EA and EU, and the strong MJO state of the second, third, and eighth phase. Our work has well established the relationship between synoptic scale and large-scale circulation, which provides a reference for climate model simulation and future climate prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]