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This article proposes Bayesian nonparametric inference for panel Markov-switching GARCH models. The model incorporates series-specific hidden Markov chain processes that drive the GARCH parameters. To cope with the high-dimensionality of the parameter space, the article assumes soft parameter pooling through a hierarchical prior distribution and introduces cross sectional clustering through a Bayesian nonparametric prior distribution. An MCMC posterior approximation algorithm is developed and its efficiency is studied in simulations under alternative settings. An empirical application to financial returns data in the United States is offered with a portfolio performance exercise based on forecasts. A comparison shows that the Bayesian nonparametric panel Markov-switching GARCH model provides good forecasting performances and economic gains in optimal asset allocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In causal inference, natural strata are a new compromise between conventional strata and matching in a fixed ratio, say pair matching or matching two controls to each treated individual. Like matching in a fixed ratio, natural strata: (a) do not require weights, (b) balance many measured covariates beyond those that define the strata and (c) provide closer balance for a measured continuous covariate coarsely cut to form strata. Unlike matching in a fixed ratio, the ratio of controls to treated individuals need not be an integer, so if the data permit a fixed ratio comparison of 1‐to‐2.5 or even 1‐to‐0.75, then these ratios are possible using natural strata. Optimal natural strata are defined by a moderate number of fixed strata plus an integer program that minimizes the imbalance in many other measured covariates that are not used to specify the strata. Solving large integer programs is computationally difficult. A tool in the theory of approximation algorithms is 'randomized rounding of a linear program' to produce an integer solution: a fractional solution to a linear program defines a probability distribution for an integer‐valued random variable which is sampled. We apply this tool in a new way to produce natural strata and develop new properties of randomized rounding in this context. When proportional strata are impractical, we approximate them by minimizing the earthmover distance to proportionality. The method is applied to study birth outcomes for older and younger mothers in the United States in 2018. An R package natstrat is available at CRAN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates two-stage plans based on nonparametric procedures for estimating an inverse regression function at a given point. Specifically, isotonic regression is used at stage one to obtain an initial estimate followed by another round of isotonic regression in the vicinity of this estimate at stage two. It is shown that such two-stage plans accelerate the convergence rate of one-stage procedures and are superior to existing two-stage procedures that use local parametric approximations at stage two when the available budget is moderate and/or the regression function is “ill-behaved.” Both Wald- and likelihood ratio-type confidence intervals for the threshold value of interest are investigated and the latter are recommended in applications due to their simplicity and robustness. The developed plans are illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study and an application to car fuel efficiency data. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

• Comparison of Budyko-based methods to separate catchment and climate effects on flow. • Probabilistic nature of catchment parameter and its uncertainty considered. • New, improved Two-Stage Decomposition method proposed for separation. • Proposed method considers uncertainty in evaporative index using bootstrap method. • Proposed method more robust than using any single earlier-practiced method. Streamflow variability is affected by both climate change and direct human impacts within the catchment. Quantification of the role of these two factors have significant implications for water resources. In recent years, Budyko-based analytical methods have been widely used for such quantification due to their simplicity and efficacy. This paper presents a comparison of such methods to attribute changes in streamflow in four Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) catchments in the contiguous United States. Further, a new, improved Two-stage Decomposition method to separate the role of climate and catchment changes on streamflow is proposed, considering the uncertainty in the catchment parameter that further leads to a range of evaporative index values within a catchment. We find that climate and catchment effects are sensitive to the choice of Budyko equation, disaggregation algorithm and approximation technique. Further, the catchment parameter can be expressed probabilistically, to account for the uncertainty because of limited hydro-meteorological records. The proposed approach employs a bootstrap analysis to obtain the stochastic range of the catchment parameter, considering different choices of Budyko equations. We argue that rather than relying on a single Budyko-based approach for separation of climate and catchment effects on streamflow, the proposed method offers a more robust way by considering the entire range of uncertainty of the catchment parameter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A variant of the popular nonparametric nonuniform intensity normalization (N3) algorithm is proposed for bias field correction. Given the superb performance of N3 and its public availability, it has been the subject of several evaluation studies. These studies have demonstrated the importance of certain parameters associated with the B-spline least-squares fitting. We propose the substitution of a recently developed fast and robust B-spline approximation routine and a modified hierarchical optimization scheme for improved bias field correction over the original N3 algorithm. Similar to the N3 algorithm, we also make the source code, testing, and technical documentation of our contribution, which we denote as "N4ITK," available to the public through the Insight Toolkit of the National Institutes of Health. Performance assessment is demonstrated using simulated data from the publicly available Brainweb database, hyperpolarized ³He lung image data, and 9.4T postmortem hippocampus data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Publishing data for analysis from a table containing personal records, while maintaining individual privacy, is a problem of increasing importance today. The traditional approach of deidentifying records is to remove identifying fields such as social security number, name, etc. However, recent research has shown that a large fraction of the U.S. population can be identified using nonkey attributes (called quasi-identifiers) such as date of birth, gender, and zip code. The k-anonymity model protects privacy via requiring that nonkey attributes that leak information are suppressed or generalized so that, for every record in the modified table, there are at least k - 1 other records having exactly the same values for quasi-identifiers. We propose a new method for anonymizing data records, where quasi-identifiers of data records are first clustered and then cluster centers are published. To ensure privacy of the data records, we impose the constraint that each cluster must contain no fewer than a prespecified number of data records. This technique is more general since we have a much larger choice for cluster centers than k-anonymity. In many cases, it lets us release a lot more information without compromising privacy. We also provide constant factor approximation algorithms to come up with such a clustering. This is the first set of algorithms for the anonymization problem where the performance is independent of the anonymity parameter k. We further observe that a few outlier points can significantly increase the cost of anonymization. Hence, we extend our algorithms to allow an ε fraction of points to remain unclustered, that is, deleted from the anonymized publication. Thus, by not releasing a small fraction of the database records, we can ensure that the data published for analysis has less distortion and hence is more useful. Our approximation algorithms for new clustering objectives are of independent interest and could be applicable in other clustering scenarios as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

US-government-sponsored evaluations and challenge problems have helped spur more than two orders of magnitude improvement in face recognition system performance. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]