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This paper examines whether or not a prolonged unemployment period can raise the quality of job matching after unemployment. We focus on job tenure as an indicator of a good quality job match after unemployment. We match two sets of Japanese administrative data compiled by the public employment security offices: one includes information about the circumstances of job seekers receiving unemployment insurance, and the other includes information about job seekers applying for jobs. We first show a negative relationship between unemployment duration and the subsequent job duration. Restricting the sample to job seekers who changed search behaviors in the final 59 days before expiration of unemployment insurance, we secondly show an even greater negative effect of unemployment duration on the following job duration. The importance lies not only in the duration of unemployment. If job seekers keep a high reservation wage and a low search intensity because of the benefits of unemployment insurance, and change them in response to the expiration of insurance, prolonged unemployment will result in short job duration after unemployment.

In this paper, we consider a model of on-the-job learning where workers learn informally by watching and imitating colleagues. We estimate the rate of knowledge diffusion inside the firm using two matched worker-firm data sets from Morocco and Senegal. We rely on non-linear least squares to estimate the structural parameters of the informal learning model and account for firm heterogeneity using firm factors derived from a principal component analysis. We find that the rate of knowledge diffusion is around 7 percent in Morocco and Senegal, but part of the learning-by-watching returns stems from firm heterogeneity. Informal training significantly affects the shape of returns to tenure in these two countries. Finally, we estimate an extended model with both learning-by-watching and learning-by-doing and find significant benefits from imitating colleagues in Morocco.

We investigate wage differences between newly hired and incumbent employees. We show in a formal model that when employees care for wages as well as match-specific utility, incumbents earn less than new recruits if and only if firm-specific human capital is not too important. The existence and structure of these wage premia is then investigated empirically using detailed personnel data from a large number of banks. We find that, on average, new hires earn more than comparable incumbent colleagues on the same job. But the size of the wage premia varies between jobs and indeed strongly depends on a measure of human capital specificity.

Job displacement insurance typically includes both unemployment benefits and lump-sum severance pay, and each has provoked policy concerns. Unemployment insurance concerns have centered on distorted job search/offer acceptance decisions by the worker, severance-induced firing cost concerns on excessive labor hoarding by firms. A single period private contracting model is used to investigate the interaction of these two seemingly distinct issues. Viewed singly, familiar results emerge. The absence of separation benefits of any kind leads to excessive labor hoarding as a primitive form of earnings insurance. In a limited information environment, the distribution of job displacement insurance between the two benefit types becomes important. Unemployment insurance benefits must be limited (relative to first-best levels) and severance pay made more generous. Firing cost considerations are less familiar. Because the firm wants to provide benefits, they cannot be contracted around. Although formally driven by the sum of (unsubsidized) severance pay and expected unemployment benefits, the second-best firing cost program limits severance pay only. Together the two constraints create an unpromising contracting environment. The firing cost constraint is the more easily relaxed by government action - subsidies of sufficient size to one or another of the separation programs will work. Offer acceptance requires restrictions on leisure (workfare). Unfortunately, if first-best benefits are mandated, efficiency requires that both be eased.

In this paper we show that panel estimates of tenure specific sensitivity to the business cycle of wages is subject to serious pitfalls. Three canonical variates used in the literature - the minimum unemployment rate during a worker's time at the firm (min u), the unemployment rate at the start of her tenure (Su) and the current unemployment rate interacted with a new hire dummy - can all be significant and correctly signed even when each worker in the firm receives the same wage, regardless of tenure (equal treatment). In matched data the problem can be resolved by the inclusion in the panel of firm-year interaction dummies. In unmatched data where this is not possible, we propose a solution for min u and Su based on Solon, Barsky and Parker's (1994) two step method. Our proposed solution method is however suboptimal because it removes a lot of potentially informative variation in average wages. Unfortunately cannot be identified in unmatched data because a differential wage response to unemployment of new hires and incumbents will appear under both equal treatment and unequal treatment.

This study analyzes real wage cyclicality for male full-time workers within employer-employee matches in Germany over the period 1984-2004. Five different wage measures are compared: the standard hourly wage rate; hourly wage earnings including overtime and bonus pay; the effective wage, which takes into account unpaid overtime; and monthly earnings, with and without additional pay. None of the hourly wage measures exhibits cyclicality except for the group of salaried workers with unpaid overtime. Their effective wages show a strongly procyclical reaction to changes in unemployment. Despite acyclical wage rates, salaried workers without unpaid overtime experienced procyclical earnings movements if they had income from extra pay. Monthly earnings were also procyclical for hourly paid workers with overtime pay. These findings suggest that cyclical earnings movements are generated by variable pay components, such as bonuses and overtime, and by flexible working hours. The degree of earnings procyclicality revealed for the German labor market is comparable to the United States.

Whilst existing efficiency wage literature assumes detection probabilities of shirkers are exogenous, this paper finds them positively and endogenously dependent on non-shirkers' effort. It shares the result with the endogenous monitoring models where, in some regions, workers reduce effort in response to higher wages, but differs in that firms never operate in those regions. The paper further provides theoretical reasons for the empirical regularity that increased usage of performance related pay (PRP) flattens the pay-tenure profile. Wages and effort increase over the lifecycle, both with and without PRP, but with late payments in PRP falling short of pure wage arrangements.

Taking advantage of a recent relaxation of Japanese government's data release policy, we conduct a cross-national analysis of micro data from Japan's Employment Status Survey and its U.S. counterpart, Current Population Survey. Our focus is to document and contrast changes in long-term employment and job security over the last twenty five years between the two largest advanced economies. We find that in spite of the prolonged economic stagnation, the ten-year job retention rates of core employees (employees of prime age of 30-44 who have already accumulated at least five years of tenure) in Japan were remarkably stable at around 70 percent over the last twenty-five years, and there is little evidence that Japan's Great Recession of the 1990s had a deleterious effect on job stability of such employees. In contrast, notwithstanding its longest economic expansion in history, the comparable job retention rates for core employees in the U.S. actually fell from over 50 percent to below 40 percent over the same time period. The probit estimates of job loss models in the two nations also point to the extraordinary resilience of job security of core employees in Japan, whereas showing a significant loss of job security for similar employees in the U.S. Though core employees in Japan turned out to have weathered their Great Recession well, we find that mid-career hires and young new job market entrants were less fortunate, with their employment stability deteriorating significantly. We interpret the findings, based on the theory of institutional complementarity, and derive lessons for policy makers around the world who are currently facing their own Great Recessions and developing effective policy responses.

This paper investigates equilibria in a labor market where firms post wage/tenure contracts and risk-averse workers, both employed and unemployed, search for better paid job opportunities. Different firms typically offer different contracts. Workers accumulate general human capital through learning-by-doing. With on-the-job search, a worker's wage evolves endogenously over time through experience effects, tenure effects and quits to better paid employment. This equilibrium approach suggests how to identify econometrically between experience and tenure effects on worker wages.

This paper shows that there are severe measurement errors regarding the occupational affiliations in the German Socio-Economic Panel. These errors are traced back to the survey structure: in years where occupational information is gathered from the entire employed population instead of only from those declaring job or labor market status changes, average occupational mobility is around five times higher. In order to construct reliable occupational affiliation data, a correction method based on related job or labor market status changes is proposed. The corrected occupational mobility patterns are then analyzed for different samples.

We use lifetime job histories from the pension records to evaluate changes in job stability in Finland between 1963 and 2004. We specify a duration model and estimate the effects of elapsed duration, age, and calendar time on the hazard of job ending using individual-level panel data spanning over four decades. We find that this hazard increased during the recession years in the early 1990s but has now returned to the level that prevailed in the 1970s. We also demonstrate that the fluctuations in the hazard rate together with the changes in labor market entry rates have complicated dynamic effects on the tenure distribution, and that analysing the changes in job stability based on the elapsed duration of ongoing jobs may be quite misleading.

We undertake the first empirical investigation of the relationship between the slope of the wagetenure profile and the level of monitoring. On the assumption that firms strive for the optimal trade-off between these various instruments, we hypothesise that increased monitoring leads to a decline in the slope of the wagetenure profile. Our empirical analysis, using two cross sections of matched employer-employee British data, provides robust support for this prediction.

This paper characterises establishments that pay higher seniority wages than their competitors. It tests whether seniority wages are paid on the basis of agency, human capital or efficiency wage considerations. A representative linked employeremployee panel and an innovative two-step estimation strategy are used to first calculate individual seniority wages taking into account that match quality biases tenure effects on wages. Then individual seniority wages are aggregated to the establishment level. Finally, the seniority wage indicator is explained by establishment characteristics. This contribution shows that large, profitable and establishments with a highly qualified workforce pay high seniority wages. Also collective bargaining coverage and works councils have a positive impact and the share of foreigners, training intensity and initial wage levels have a negative correlation with seniority wages. The results support an agency based motivation for seniority wages.

We extend the literature on transition economies' wage structures by investigating the returns to tenure and experience. This study applies recent panel data and estimation approaches that control for hitherto neglected biases. We compare the life cycle structure of East and West German wages for fulltime employed men in the private sector. The patterns in the returns to seniority are similar for the two regional labor markets. The returns to experience lag behind in the East German labor market, even almost 20 years after unification with significant differences particularly for high skill workers. The results are robust when only individuals are considered who started their labor market career in the market economy. We expect that the different returns are related to the heterogeneity of work experience gathered in East versus West Germany.

Using a large linked employer-employee data set for Germany, we find that the existence of a works council is associated with a lower separation rate to employment, in particular for men and workers with low tenure. While works council monopoly effects show up in all specifications, clear voice effects are only visible for low tenured workers. Works councils also reduce separations to non-employment, and this impact is more pronounced for men. Insurance effects only show up for workers with tenure of more than one year. Our results indicate that works councils primarily represent the interests of a specific clientele.

We develop an equilibrium model of wages and estimate it using administrative data from Norway. Coworkers interact through a task-assignment model, and wages are determined through multi-lateral bargaining over the surplus that accrues to the workforce. Seniority affects wages through workplace output and relative bargaining power. These channels are separately identified by imposing equilibrium restrictions on data observing all workers within workplaces. We find joint production is important. Seniority affects bargaining power but is unproductive. We reinterpret gender and firm-size effects in wages in light of the rejection of linearly separable production.

According to the aims of the labour market reforms of the 90s implemented in many European countries, workers may stay at their first job for a shorter time, but should be able to switch jobs easily. This would generate a trade-off between job opportunities and job stability. This paper addresses this issue using administrative longitudinal data for Germany and Italy, taken as representative examples of continuous and isolated reforms, respectively. The estimated piecewise constant job and employment duration models show that changes in the durations of the first job and employment - measured as the sum of multiple consecutive jobs - are observed in periods of labour market reforms. However, the existence of a trade-off is not confirmed by the results. In Germany, men have experienced an increase in employment stability over time, mated with somewhat longer job durations, while women have not benefitted from an increase in employment durations as a compensation for the marked decrease in their first job durations. In Italy, employment stability of the new entrants of both sexes has not improved after the reforms. The reduction in the duration of the first job has not been counterbalanced by an increase in the opportunity to find rapidly another job. These results suggest that the objective of increasing job opportunities by means of labour market deregulation has not been fully achieved.

This study examines the extent, duration and timing of employment breaks amongst a large representative sample of Jewish workers in Israel over the 13-year time period, 1983-1995. Work histories are constructed from a new joint database, unique in Israel, which was derived from a linkage of 1995 Population Census data with monthly employment records of the National Insurance Institute. The paper focuses on gender differences in work history patterns and, within each gender, breakdowns are provided by ethnic origin, marital status, age and education level. While most of the results are both expected and compatible with current economic theories of household behavior, some of the findings of the study are less expected, particularly those relating to the considerable amount of intermittent employment found amongst Israeli male workers. Also, women?s labor market attachment is stronger than is generally presumed. Gender differences in employment interruptions are greater for younger than older workers.

"This paper shows that the German labor market is more volatile than the US labor market at the business cycle frequency. Specifically, the volatility of the cyclical component of several labor market variables (e.g., the job-finding rate, the labor market tightness and vacancies) divided by the volatility of labor productivity is roughly twice as large as in the United States. We derive and simulate a simple model to explain this seemingly puzzling result. This new model provides explanations for this phenomenon, in particular the longer job tenure in Germany." (author's abstract) "Wir zeigen empirisch, dass die konjunkturellen Schwankungen am Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland höher sind als in den USA. Insbesondere ist die Volatilität von Arbeitsmarktvariablen (etwa der Vakanzen, der Arbeitsmarktanspannung oder der Wahrscheinlichkeit Arbeit zu finden) im Verhältnis zur Volatilität der Arbeitsproduktivität etwa doppelt so hoch wie in den USA. Wir präsentieren und kalibrieren ein einfaches Modell, das dieses scheinbare Rätsel löst. Das Modell bietet als Erklärung für dieses Phänomen insbesondere die längere Betriebszugehörigkeitsdauer in Deutschland an." (Autorenreferat)

This paper combines two strains of the literature on the employment effects of deferred compensation. The first strain separates seniority and job matching wage effects on the basis of individual data, but cannot look at employment consequences. The second strain explains the employment structure on the basis of establishment data, but cannot properly calculate seniority wages. This paper uses linked employer-employee data, aggregates individual seniority wages to the establishment level, and correlates them with the establishment employment structure. According to the deferred compensation hypothesis this paper finds that establishments with stronger seniority wages have a higher tenure but hire less older employees.

This study documents two empirical regularities, using data for Denmark and Portugal. First, workers who are hired last, are the first to leave the firm (Last In, First Out; LIFO). Second, workers' wages rise with seniority (= a worker's tenure relative to the tenure of her colleagues). We seek to explain these regularities by developing a dynamic model of the firm with stochastic product demand and hiring cost (= irreversible specific investments). There is wage bargaining between a worker and its firm. Separations (quits or layoffs) obey the LIFO rule and bargaining is efficient (a zero surplus at the moment of separation). The LIFO rule provides a stronger bargaining position for senior workers, leading to a return to seniority in wages. Efficiency in hiring requires the workers' bargaining power to be in line with their share in the cost of specific investment. Then, the LIFO rule is a way to protect their property right on the specific investment. We consider the effects of Employment Protection Legislation and risk aversion.

We examine job durations of German workers using linked employer-employee data. Our results indicate that exit rates are strongly influenced by firm characteristics. The effects of some of these characteristics, however, are limited to particular job positions or skill groups. There is clear evidence for a sorting process whereby workers with long expected job durations are matched to firms offering stable employment (and vice versa). An extension of the model to a competing-risks framework shows that both individual and firm-level characteristics differ greatly in their impact on job exit to different destination states. Among the substantive results, it would appear that works councils decrease exit both to unemployment and to new jobs, but do so only for blue collar workers.

The paper deals with measurement error, and its potentially distorting role, in information on industry and professional status collected by labour force surveys. The focus of our analyses is on inconsistent information on these employment characteristics resulting from yearly transition matrices for workers who were continuously employed over the year and who did not change job. As a case-study we use yearly panel data for the period from April 1993 to April 2003 collected by the Italian Quarterly Labour Force Survey. The analysis goes through four steps: (i) descriptive indicators of (dis)agreement; (ii) testing whether the consistency of repeated information significantly increases when the number of categories is collapsed; (iii) examination of the pattern of inconsistencies among response categories by means of Goodman's quasi-independence model; (iv) comparisons of alternative classifications. Results document sizable measurement error, which is only moderately reduced by more aggregated classifications. They suggest that even cross-section estimates of employment by industry and/or professional status are affected by non-random measurement error.

By using a large new panel of individual data, including objective measures of worker performance, we provide some of the most rigorous evidence to date on several related dimensions of enduring debates surrounding upward-sloping earnings-tenure profiles. Most importantly we provide the first direct test of the relative validity of human capital and agency explanations in accounting for upward-sloping earnings-tenure profiles; our findings strongly support the agency view. Our second area of interest concerns employee ownership (many workers at our case are employee owners). Consistent with agency theory we find that earnings-tenure profiles for employee owners are not upward-sloping but horizontal. In addition we find that pay-performance sensitivities are substantially weaker for employee owners than for other workers. Finally we investigate the impact of residential policies in China. We find that again consistent with the agency view, earnings-tenure profiles are considerably steeper for urban workers than for migrant workers with far more limited alternative employment opportunities.

This paper compares the cyclical behaviour of male real wages in Germany and the UK using the German Socio-Economic Panel 1984-2002 and the British Household Panel Survey 1991-2004. We distinguish between job stayers (remaining in the same job), and within- and between-company job movers. Stayers are the large majority in both countries. Using changes in the unemployment rate as the cyclical measure, we find real wages of stayers in the private sector in West Germany but not East Germany to be procyclical, and quite sensitive to unemployment, comparable to the US and the UK. We find cyclicality in the public sector in neither country. Thus real wage flexibility is similar in the two countries, apart from East Germany, despite apparent differences in wage-setting institutions.

(version July 2007) The paper investigates the evolution of wages and wage inequality in Germany based on samples from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) 1984 to 2005. Real gross hourly wages for prime age dependent male workers increased on average by 23 percent between 1984 and 1994 in West Germany and the wage distribution was fairly stable. Between 1994 and 2005 average wages increased by 7 percent in West Germany and 18 percent in East Germany. In this period wage inequality, measured by the ratio of the ninetieth to tenth percentile of the wage distribution, increased from 2.5 to 3.1 in West Germany and from 2.4 to 3.2 in East Germany. In West Germany rising wage inequality occurred mainly in the lower part of the wage distribution, whereas in East Germany wage inequality predominantly increased in the upper part of the wage distribution. In West Germany the group of workers with low tenure experienced higher increases in wage inequality compared to the group of workers with high tenure.

We estimate wage and job tenure functions that include individual and firm effects capturing time-invariant unobserved worker and firm heterogeneity using German linked employer-employee data (LIAB data set). We find that both types of heterogeneity are correlated to the observed characteristics and that it is therefore warranted to include individual and firm fixed effects in both the wage and the job tenure equation. We look into the correlation of the unobserved heterogeneity components with each other. We find that high-wage workers tend to be low-tenure workers, i.e. higher unobserved ability seems to be associated with higher job mobility. At firm level, there seems to be a trade-off between wages and job stability: High-wage firms tend to be low-tenure firms, which suggests that low job stability may be compensated by higher wages. High-wage workers seem to sort into low-wage/high-tenure firms. They seem to forgo some of their earnings potential in favour of higher job stability.

This paper offers a replication for Britain of Brown and Heywood's analysis of the determinants of performance appraisal in Australia. Although there are some important limiting differences between our two datasets - the AWIRS and the WERS - we reach one central point of agreement and one intriguing shared insight. First, performance appraisal is negatively associated with tenure: where employers cannot rely on the carrot of deferred pay or the stick of dismissal to motivate workers they will tend to rely more on monitoring, ceteris paribus. Alternatively put, when the probability of job separation is greater, the influence of deferred compensation diminishes. Second, there is also some suggestion in the data that employer monitoring and performance pay may be complementary. However, consonant with the disparate results from the wider literature, there is more modest agreement on the contribution of specific HRM practices, and still less on the role of job control. Finally, there is no carry over to Britain of the structural determinants identified by Brown and Heywood.

We analyze the joint determination of wage levels, wage growth and firm tenure. Our analysis is built on estimating a reduced form for tenure, a structural wage level equation and a structural wage growth equation. We disentangle returns to a latent type variable from estimates of general returns to tenure and wage gains from job changes. This type is related to unobservable match quality that is allowed to vary over time and to be correlated with the returns to tenure. The obtained results for Germany indicate that the type plays a crucial role in the remuneration of employees. Those types who change jobs more often obtain steeper wage profiles but earn less on average.

The paper analyzes how international outsourcing affected individual employment security. The analysis is carried out at the micro-level, combining monthly spell data from household panel data and industry-level outsourcing measures. By utilizing micro-level data, problems such as aggregation and potential endogeneity bias, as b well as crude skill approximations that regularly hamper industry level displacement studies, can be reduced considerably. The main finding is that international outsourcing significantly lowers individual employment security. Interestingly, the effect does, however, not differ between high-, medium-, and low-skilled workers but only varies with job duration.

This paper poses three fundamental questions about lifetime employment in Japan: How big is it? How unique is it? And, how is it changing? I examine different concepts and methods for estimating lifetime employment and conclude that it covers roughly 20 percent of the Japanese labor force. Job mobility remains considerably lower in Japan than in other economies (particularly the U.S.). Evidence regarding changes in lifetime employment is mixed. The share of workers in the core, an ex-ante measure of lifetime employment, is declining. But the probability of job separations has remained stable for those who are already in the system. I also find evidence that the incentives among workers, managers and executives are aligned to preserve the lifetime employment system.

This paper provides a new way of analyzing tenure profiles in wages, by modelling simultaneously the evolution of wages and the distribution of tenures. We develop a theoretical model based on efficient bargaining, where both log outside wage and log wage in the current job follow a random walk, as found empirically. This setting allows the application of real option theory. We derive the efficient separation rule. The model fits the observed distribution of job tenures well. Since we observe outside wages only at job start and job separation, our empirical analysis of within job wage growth is based on expected wage growth conditional on the outside wages at both dates. Our modelling allows testing of the efficient bargaining hypothesis. The model is estimated on the PSID.

We estimate the effect of initial episodes under fixed-term contracts (FTCs) on job duration in the further course of the employment spell, using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) from 1985 to 2002. Using a statistical matching approach, we find that job exit rates are initially much higher if the employment spell began with an FTC. However, exit rates fall below those of comparable spells spent entirely in permanent employment after a few years time. This suggests that FTCs accelerate a sorting process and that they may at least to some part be understood as prolonged probationary periods. Strikingly, the probability of long-term employment of more than five years duration is not lower in spells that are initially concluded as FTCs. Hence, the sorting processes taking place in both forms of contracts seem to be of similar intensity.

We examine job durations of German workers using a linked employeremployee dataset. The descriptive evidence suggests that firm characteristics have a substantial influence on the job exit rate. However, the extent of dispersion in durations is not substantially lower at the firm level than for the sample as a whole, pointing to the presence of segmentation between long and short employment spells within establishments. Using the Cox partial likelihood estimator, we then examine the determinants of job exit. There is some evidence that neglecting firm characteristics biases the coefficients of individual-specific variables. Extension of the model to a competing risks framework shows that both individual and firm-level characteristics differ greatly in their impact on job exit to different destination states.

This paper provides a new way of analyzing tenure profiles in wages, by modelling simultaneously the evolution of wages and the distribution of tenures. Starting point is the observation that within-job log wages for an individual can be described by random walk. We develop a theoretical model based on efficient bargaining, where both log outside wage and log wage in the current job follow a random walk. This setting allows the application of real option theory. We derive the efficient separation rule, which stipulates that workers switch jobs when the difference between the outside wage and the wage in the current job reaches a threshold. The model fits well the observed distribution of job tenures. Since we observe outside wages only at job start and job separation, our empirical analysis of with job wage growth is based on expected wage growth conditional on the outside wages at both dates. Our modelling allows testing of the efficient bargaining hypothesis. The model is estimated on the PSID.

We consider differences in current job tenure of individuals using linked employee and workplace data. This enables us to distinguish between variation in tenure associated with the characteristics of individual employees and those of the workplace in which they work. The various individual characteristics are, as a group, found to be essentially uncorrelated with the workplace effect, however, this is not true for women and non-white employees. We find that the lower tenure associated with membership of these demographic groups is predominantly captured by workplace effects suggesting some degree of labour market segmentation in Britain.

This contribution investigates severance payments for dismissed employees in Germany. Subsequent to an overview about the legal framework, we respond to the following questions: Who receives severance payments? By which characteristics is the level of severance payments determined? Is overcompensation to be considered a relevant issue? Hereby, individual and collective dismissals are always distinguished. This is the first study on this issue using individual representative data – the German Socio-Economic Panel – and multivariate methods. The results indicate that rather women, persons with many years of tenure and working in big firms receive severance payments. There is a huge variance in the size of the payments, which can only partly be explained by tenure, the wage, firm size and the region. At least one quarter of dismissed employees is better off in their following careers independent of having received a severance payment.

This paper studies the evolution of job stability in West Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we first show that the median elapsed tenure declined for men between 1984 and 1999. Second, estimating proportional Cox hazard models with competing risks and controls for stock sampling, we are able to distinguish the reasons for job separation and different transition states. We show that the decline in the stability of men?s jobs can be attributed partly to an increase in layoffs and partly to an increase in transitions to unemployment. However, these two developments are not significantly related to each other. Some evidence is presented that downsizing of large firms might be responsible for part of the decline in job stability.

This paper replicates studies by Medoff and Abraham (1980, 1981) and Flabbi and Ichino (2001) using personnel data from the Dutch national aircraft manufacturer Fokker. It shows how a formal salary system, as is widely used by large firms, brings about that seniority-wage profiles are largely independent of controls for reported performance in cross-sectional wage regressions even though supervisors' evaluations shape life-cycle earnings profiles. Performance ratings determine how fast a worker climbs the firm's career and wage ladder. The paper also reveals that real wage growth depends on the employer's prosperity. Furthermore it demonstrates that formal salary systems cause serial correlation in wage growth and 'Green Card' effects.

The research area of the new economics of personnel has a short but important and insightful history. Theory ahead of measurement asks for testing newly developed human resource concepts. These tests often need detailed firm-specific data. Repetition and comparison of results is key in finding out what holds true in general and what marks idiosyncrasy. In this paper, we compare results from the existing literature with the outcomes from analyzing personnel data of the Dutch aircraft manufacturer Fokker during the period January 1, 1987, the day the company started with their electronic personnel filing system, until March 15, 1996, the day the company filed for bankruptcy. We shed light on differences in the functioning of internal labor markets during periods of workforce growth and decline. We find multiple ports of entry that are concentrated in low blue and white-collar levels. New entrants are younger and have higher educational levels than incumbent workers who are promoted to similar jobs. Despite substantial variation in individual wages, careers are important as wages are strongly related to job levels. Promotion rates fall and demotion rates rise when the firm enters the stage of demise. Job-rotation improves promotion chances, stimulates wage growth, and reduces the lay-off risk.

We provide evidence that long-term relationships between trading parties emerge endogenously in the absence of third party enforcement of contracts and are associated with a fundamental change in the nature of market interactions. Without third party enforcement, the vast majority of trades are initiated with private offers and the parties share the gains from trade equally. Low effort or bad quality is penalized by the termination of the relationship, wielding a powerful effect on contract enforcement. Successful long-term relations exhibit generous rent sharing and high effort (quality) from the very beginning of the relationship. In the absence of third-party enforcement, markets resemble a collection of bilateral trading islands rather than a competitive market. If contracts are third party enforceable, rent sharing and long-term relations are absent and the vast majority of trades are initiated with public offers. Most trades take place in one-shot transactions and the contracting parties are indifferent with regard to the identity of their trading partner.

The paper investigates whether (unsubsidised) fixed-term contracts (FTCs) are a means of integration for the unemployed in the West German labour market. This is done by analysing whether entering into an FTC improves the employment opportunities of an unemployed person in terms of the probability of subsequent permanent contracts and subsequent periods of employment and unemployment. The empirical analysis is based on propensity score matching methods, obtaining the effects of FTCs by comparing the future situation of (?treated?) unemployed entering into FTCs after a particular unemployment duration with a suitable control group of ?non-treated? individuals. In principal different counterfactual situations for treated persons entering into FTCs after a certain number of month of unemployment are reasonable. A first counterfactual is never to enter into an FTC. A second counterfactual is not to take up an FTC job in this month but possibly in a later month. These two possible counterfactuals imply different definitions for the group of non-treated individuals and impose different policy questions. Both definitions are analysed in the paper. The propensity score is estimated by a discrete hazard rate model, which seems to be an appropriate way of taking into account the potential endogenous effect of the unemployment duration on the selection into the type of contract. Further insights are gained by comparing the determinants of the transition to FTC and permanent contract jobs. There is some evidence that FTCs may serve as ?stepping stones? towards permanent employment for the unemployed. However, the hypothesis that FTCs lead to dual labour markets cannot be rejected.

This paper explains how real wages are procyclical for those who stay with the same employer. On the basis of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data for the period of 1974-75 to 1990-91, we find that the substantial wage procyclicality among job stayers is mostly accounted for by great wage adjustments during the period when the unemployment rate reaches a historical minimum level from the start of the employee's current job. This finding explains how the real wages of job stayers behave asymmetrically over the cycle and more importantly how the evidence of stayers' great wage procyclicality accords with the theoretical prediction of implicit contracts that stresses costless mobility.

In this paper we study the sources of wage growth. We identify the contribution to such growth of general, sector specific and firm specific human capital. Our results are interpretable within the context of a model where the returns to human capital may be heterogeneous and where firms may offer different combinations of entry level wages and firm specific human capital development. We allow for the the possibility that wages are match specific and that workers move jobs as a result of identifying a better match. To estimate the average returns to experience, sector tenure and firm specific tenure within this context, we develop an identification strategy which relies on the use of establishment closures. Our data source is a new and unique administrative data set for Germany that includes complete work histories as well as individual characteristics. We find positive returns to experience and tenure for skilled workers. The returns to experience and tenure for unskilled workers are substantially lower.

This econometric study deals with the question as to what extent apprentices after successfully completing their training stay with the firm where they have received their training and, if so, how long that job tenure holds. Determinants of both decisions can be seen from both the employer's and the employee's viewpoint. The firm is interested to employ this apprentices in order to collect the returns from its investment in their training which frequently is associated with net costs. On the other hand, the firm dismisses apprentices if training is viewed by the firm as a screening device or if apprentices are engaged in work for which, in terms of wages, they are too expensive afterwards. The young trained worker bases his or her decision to stay or to leave on considerations such as experimenting with several jobs ('job shopping'). The realization of such an experimenting may depend on the situation on the labour market. The empirical part uses individual employee data covering the time period 1980 to 1991 in West Germany and is based on a hazard rate model.

The apprenticeship system is the most important source of formal post-secondary training in Germany. Our paper contributes to the ongoing debate as to why firms are willing to invest in such training even though many apprentices will leave the training firm soon after completion of the apprenticeship. Using German register data – the IAB Employment Sample – we find that apprentices staying with their training firm after graduation have (1) higher wages and (2) longer first-job durations than apprentices leaving the training firm. These results support theories according to which firms use the apprenticeship system to select and retain the more able apprentices, thereby recouping the costs of investing in skills that are portable in principle.

In this paper, U.S. data on labor market histories of displaced workers are used to quantify the effect of Unemployment Insurance Compensation (UIC) on both unemployment and employment durations. This results in the first available assessment of the effect that UIC has on the fraction of time spent employed. The estimation procedure simultaneously allows for unobserved heterogeneity, defective risks and sample selection into future spells, and uses alternative assumptions about agents? knowledge of the UIC eligibility rules. Being entitled to UIC shortens workers? employment durations. This negative effect on the fraction of time spent employed could be offset by suspending an extended benefits program in order to shorten unemployment durations.

Significant numbers of employees work more hours in the workplace than their contract stipulates. Such overtime work can either be paid or unpaid. This research considers overtime working in Germany and the UK and shows that the quantitative significance of both paid and unpaid overtime is greater in the UK. Empirical work is based on the UK Labour Force Survey and the German Socio-Economic Panel in 1993. Overtime influences the effective average hourly wage positively in the case where overtime is paid at premium rates and negatively where such hours are not remunerated. We demonstrate via Mincer wage growth equations that accounting for unpaid work leads to revised estimates of experience and tenure both within and between the two countries. We estimate overtime hours equations, using these to test several of our theories that might explain the apparent irrationality of unpaid work.