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International audience; Climate warming is supposed to enlarge the area climatically suitable to the naturalization of alien garden plants in temperate regions. However, the effects of a changing climate on the spread of naturalized ornamentals have not been evaluated by spatially and temporarily explicit range modelling at larger scales so far. Here, we assess how climate change and the frequency of cultivation interactively determine the spread of 15 ornamental plants over the 21st century in Europe. We coupled species distribution modelling with simulations of demography and dispersal to predict range dynamics of these species in annual steps across a 250 x 250 m raster of the study area. Models were run under four scenarios of climate warming and six levels of cultivation intensity. Cultivation frequency was implemented as size of the area used for planting a species. Although the area climatically suitable to the 15 species increases, on average, the area predicted to be occupied by them in 2090 shrinks under two of the three climate change scenarios. This contradiction obviously arises from dispersal limitations that were pronounced although we assumed that cultivation is spatially adapting to the changing climate. Cultivation frequency had a much stronger effect on species spread than climate change, and this effect was non-linear. The area occupied increased sharply from low to moderate levels of cultivation intensity, but levelled off afterwards. Our simulations suggest that climate warming will not necessarily foster the spread of alien garden plants in Europe over the next decades. However, climatically suitable areas do increase and hence an invasion debt is likely accumulating. Restricting cultivation of species can be effective in preventing species spread, irrespective of how the climate develops. However, for being successful, they depend on high levels of compliance to keep propagule pressure at a low level.

1. Biotic resistance represents an important natural barrier to potential invaders throughout the world, yet the underlying mechanisms that drive such resistance are still debated. In theory, native communities should repel both functionally similar invaders which compete for the same resources, and invaders which possess less competitive traits. However, environmental stress, trade-offs across vital rates and competition-induced plastic trait shifts may modify expected competitive outcomes, thereby influencing invasion dynamics.2. In order to test these theoretical links between trait distributions and biotic resistance, we performed a mesocosm experiment with 25 non-native ornamental species invading native plant communities. Each non-native species was grown with and without the native community under two watering treatments (regular and reduced). We measured biotic resistance as the difference in performance of nonnative individuals grown with and without the community in terms of their survival, growth and reproduction. We quantified overall functional dissimilarity between non-native ornamental individuals and native communities based on the combination of plant height, specific leaf area and seed mass. Then, assuming each of these traits is also potentially linked to competitive ability, we measured the position of non-natives on trait hierarchies. While height is positively correlated with competitive ability for light interception, conservative leaf and seed characteristics provide greater tolerance to competition for other resources. Finally, we quantified plastic trait shifts of non-native individuals induced by competition.3. Indeed, the native community repelled functionally similar individuals by lowering the invader’s survival rate. Simultaneously, shorter ornamental individuals with larger specific leaf areas were less tolerant to biotic resistance from the community across vital rates, although the effect of trait hierarchies often depended on watering conditions. Finally, non-natives responded to competition by shifting their traits. Most importantly, individuals with more competitive traits were able to overcome biotic resistance also through competition-induced plastic trait shifts.4. Synthesis. Our results highlight that both functional dissimilarity and trait hierarchies mediate biotic resistance to ornamental plant invaders. Nevertheless, environmental stress as well as opposing trends across vital rates are also influential. Furthermore, plastic trait shifts can reinforce potential invaders’ competitive superiority, determining a positive feedback. published

1. Most naturalised and invasive alien plant species were originally introduced to regions for horticultural purposes. However, many regions now face an invasion debt from ornamental alien species, which have not yet naturalised. In this regard, climate change represents a threat as it may lower the barriers to naturalisation for some ornamental alien species. Identifying those species is extremely important for anticipating impending invasions.2. To identify predictors of naturalisation, we modelled the effects of climate, nursery availability and species characteristics on the current European naturalisation success of 2,073 ornamental aliens commonly planted in European gardens. We then used the resulting model together with climate projections for 2050 to forecast future naturalisation risks for the 1,583 species not yet naturalised in Europe.3. We found that non-European naturalised range size, climatic suitability, propagule pressure, having a dioecious sexual system and plant height jointly explained current naturalisation success in Europe. By 2050, naturalisation probability projections increased by more than 0.1 for 41 species, and only decreased by more than 0.1 for one species.4. Policy implications. Using predictions based on our integrated model of alien ornamental naturalisation success, we identified species with high future naturalisation risk and species with high projected increases in naturalisation potential in Europe under climate change. This species list allows for prioritisation of monitoring and regulation of ornamental plants to mitigate the invasion debt. published