Search

Forests around the world are under immense pressure from human land use and climate change. Old-growth and primary forests have been degraded in recent decades, yet are generally more resilient and resistant to climate change effects compared to human-modified forests. Nowhere is this more evident than in Russian Siberia, which contains almost one-fifth of the world’s forest area and has been subjected to a variety of land uses and disturbances since the mid-20th century. Although a number of related geospatial products exist, there are no large-scale maps of old-growth and primary forests across Siberia. However, remotely sensed metrics of forest stability have been shown to relate to old-growth and primary forests in tropical and boreal environments. Here we apply stability indices from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors across boreal Siberia from 2003 to 2020. Our results indicate that forests in the central and southern taiga contain most areas of high stability, but also distinct zones of disturbance and low stability. We identified three regions with particularly low forest stability: (i) the Zabaikal region in southern Siberia, (ii) a portion of the central taiga spanning the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), and (iii) the West Siberian lowlands. This approach can be used to monitor Siberian boreal forest condition, and could be applied to other boreal forested regions.

Abstract Carbon accounting in the land sector requires a reference level from which to calculate past losses of carbon and potential for gains using a stock-based target. Carbon carrying capacity represented by the carbon stock in primary forests is an ecologically-based reference level that allows estimation of the mitigation potential derived from protecting and restoring forests to increase their carbon stocks. Here we measured and collated tree inventory data at primary forest sites including from research studies, literature and forest inventories (7982 sites, 288,262 trees, 27 countries) across boreal, temperate, and subtropical Global Ecological Zones within Europe. We calculated total biomass carbon stock per hectare (above- and below-ground, dead biomass) and found it was 1.6 times larger on average than modelled global maps for primary forests and 2.3 times for all forests. Large trees (diameter greater than 60 cm) accounted for 50% of biomass and are important carbon reservoirs. Carbon stock foregone by harvesting of 12–52% demonstrated the mitigation potential. Estimated carbon gain by protecting, restoring and ongoing growth of existing forests equated to 309 megatons carbon dioxide equivalents per year, additional to, and higher than, the current forest sink, and comparable to the Green Deal 2030 target for carbon dioxide removals.

The world’s forests are being increasingly disturbed from exposure to the compounding impacts of land use and climate change, in addition to natural disturbance regimes. Boreal forests have a lower level of deforestation compared to tropical forests, and while they have higher levels of natural disturbances, the accumulated impact of forest management for commodity production coupled with worsening fire weather conditions and other climate-related stressors is resulting in ecosystem degradation and loss of biodiversity. We used satellite-based time-series analysis of two canopy indices—canopy photosynthesis and canopy water stress—to calculate an index that maps the relative stability of forest canopies in the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. By drawing upon available spatial time-series data on logging, wildfire, and insect infestation impacts, we were able to attribute the causal determinants of areas identified as having unstable forest canopy. The slope of the two indices that comprise the stability index also provided information as to where the forest is recovering from prior disturbances. The stability analyses and associated spatial datasets are available in an interactive web-based mapping app. that can be used to map disturbed forest canopies and the attribution of disturbances to human or natural causes. This information can assist decision-makers in identifying areas that are potentially ecologically degraded and in need of restoration and those stable areas that are a priority for protection.

Whales have been titled climate savers in the media with their recovery welcomed as a potential carbon solution. However, only a few studies were performed to date providing data or model outputs to support the hypothesis. Following an outline of the primary mechanisms by which baleen whales remove carbon from the atmosphere for eventual sequestration at regional and global scales, we conclude that the amount of carbon whales are potentially sequestering might be too little to meaningfully alter the course of climate change. This is in contrast to media perpetuating whales as climate engineers. Creating false hope in the ability of charismatic species to be climate engineers may act to further delay the urgent behavioral change needed to avert catastrophic climate change impacts, which can in turn have indirect consequences for the recovery of whale populations. Nevertheless, whales are important components of marine ecosystems, and any further investigation on existing gaps in their ecology will contribute to clarifying their contribution to the ocean carbon cycle, a major driver of the world’s climate. While whales are vital to the healthy functioning of marine ecosystems, overstating their ability to prevent or counterbalance anthropogenically induced changes in global carbon budget may unintentionally redirect attention from known, well-established methods of reducing greenhouse gases. Large scale protection of marine environments including the habitats of whales will build resilience and assist with natural carbon capture.

The Canadian boreal forest biome has been subjected to a long history of management for wood production. Here, we examined the cumulative impacts of logging on older forests in terms of area, distribution and patch configuration in the managed forest zones of the Eastern Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. We also examined the consequences of these cumulative impacts on a once widely distributed and now threatened species, the woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). The cumulative area of recently logged forest (since ~1976) was 14,024,619 ha, with 8,210,617 ha in Quebec and 5,814,002 ha in Ontario. The total area of older forests was 21,249,341 ha, with 11,840,474 ha in Quebec and 9,408,867 ha in Ontario. Patch statistics revealed that there were 1,085,822 older forests with core patches < 0.25 ha and an additional 603,052 < 1.0 ha. There were 52 > 10,00–50,000 ha and 8 < 50,000 ha. Older forest patches (critical caribou habitat) in the 21 local population ranges totalled 6,103,534 ha, distributed among ~387,102 patches with 362,933 < 10 ha and 14 > 50,000 ha. The median percentage of local population ranges that was disturbed was 53.5%, with Charlevoix having the maximum (90.3%) and Basse Côte-Nord the least (34.9%). Woodland caribou local population ranges with disturbed suitable habitats >35% are considered unable to support self-sustaining populations. We found that for the 21 caribou local population ranges examined, 3 were at very high risk (>75% area disturbed), 16 at high risk (>45 ≤ 75% area disturbed), and 2 at low risk (≤35% area disturbed). Major changes are needed in boreal forest management in Ontario and Quebec for it to be ecologically sustainable, including a greater emphasis on protection and restoration for older forests, and to lower the risks for caribou populations.

Abstract Seasonal feeding behaviour of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) has been observed in the coastal waters of the Southern Benguela where the species has been observed forming super-groups during the austral spring in recent years since 2011. Super-groups are unprecedented densely-packed aggregations of between 20 and 200 individuals in low-latitude waters and their occurrences indicate possible changes in feeding behaviour of the species. We accessed published data on super-groups occurrence in the study area in 2011, 2014 and 2015, and investigated oceanographic drivers that support prey availability in this region. We found that enhanced primary production is a necessary but not sufficient condition for super-groups to occur. Positive chlorophyll anomalies occurring one month prior to the super-group occurrences were identified, but only a concurrent significantly reduced water volume export from the region throughout October were conducive to the aggregations in the specific years. Hydrodynamic model results attributed the anomalous decreased volume export to the strength and orientation of the Goodhope Jet and associated eddy activity. The combination of random enhanced primary production typical of the region and emerging anomalous conditions of reduced water export in October since 2011 resulted in favourable food availability leading to the unique humpback whale aggregations. The novelty of this grouping behaviour is indicative of the lack of such oceanographic conditions in the past. Given the recency of the events, it is difficult to attribute this reduction in ocean transport to climatic regime shifts, and the origin should be likely investigated in the distant water mass interaction with the greater Agulhas system rather than in local intensifications of the upwelling conditions. A positive trend in the humpback whale population abundance points to the need to monitor the exposure of the species to the changing climate conditions.

Several key international policy frameworks involve forests, including the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). However, rules and guidelines that treat forest types equally regardless of their ecosystem integrity and risk profiles in terms of forest and carbon loss limit policy effectiveness and can facilitate forest degradation. Here we assess the potential for using a framework of ecosystem integrity to guide policy goals. We review the theory and present a conceptual framework, compare elements of integrity between primary and human-modified forests, and discuss the policy and management implications. We find that primary forests consistently have higher levels of ecosystem integrity and lower risk profiles than human-modified forests. This underscores the need to protect primary forests, develop consistent large-scale data products to identify high-integrity forests, and operationalize a framework of ecosystem integrity. Doing so will optimize long-term carbon storage and the provision of other ecosystem services, and can help guide evolving forest policy at the nexus of the biodiversity and climate crises.

Mature and old-growth forests (MOG) of the conterminous United States collectively support exceptional levels of biodiversity but have declined substantially from logging and development. National-scale proposals to protect 30 and 50% of all lands and waters are useful in assessing MOG conservation targets given the precarious status of these forests. We present the first coast to coast spatially explicit MOG assessment based on three structural development measures—canopy height, canopy cover, and above-ground living biomass to assess relative maturity. MOG were displayed by major forest types (n = 22), landownerships (federal, state, private, and tribal), and Gap Analysis Project (GAP) management status overlaid on the NatureServe’s Red-listed Ecosystems and species, above-ground living biomass, and drinking water source areas. MOG total ∼67.2 M ha (35.9%) of all forest structural classes and were scattered across 8 regions with most in western regions. All federal lands combined represented the greatest (35%) concentrations of MOG, ∼92% of which is on national forest lands with ∼9% on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and ∼3% on national park lands (totals do not sum to 100% due to minor mapping errors in the datasets). MOG on national forest lands supported the highest concentration of conservation values. However, national forests and BLM lands did not meet lower bound (30%) targets with only ∼24% of MOG in GAP1,2 (5.9 M ha) protection status. The vast majority (76%, 20.8 M ha) of MOG on federal lands that store 10.64 Gt CO2 (e) are vulnerable to logging (GAP3). If federal MOG are logged over a decade, and half their carbon stock emitted, there would be an estimated 0.5 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 by 2030, which is equivalent to ∼9% of United States total annual emissions. We recommend upper bound (100%) protection of federal MOG, including elevating the conservation status of Inventoried Roadless Areas. This would avoid substantial CO2 emissions while allowing ongoing carbon sequestration to act as natural climate solutions to aid compliance with the Paris Climate Agreement and presidential executive orders on MOG and 30% of all lands and waters in protection by 2030. On non-federal lands, which have fewer MOG, regulatory improvements and conservation incentives are needed.

Abstract Forests are critical for biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation: reducing emissions, increasing removals, and providing resilient ecosystems with stable long‐term carbon storage. However, evaluating the mitigation effectiveness of forests managed for conservation versus commodity production has been long debated. We assessed factors influencing evaluation of mitigation effectiveness––land area, time horizon, reference level, carbon stock longevity––and tested the outcomes using analyses of carbon dynamics from an Australian ecosystem. Results showed that landscape scale accounting using carbon carrying capacity as the reference level and assessed over a series of time horizons best enables explicit evaluation of mitigation benefits. Time horizons need to differentiate between near‐term emissions reduction targets (2030 and 2050), relative longevity of carbon stocks in different reservoirs, and long‐term impacts on atmospheric CO2 concentration. Greatest mitigation benefits derive from conservation through continued forest growth (52% gain in carbon stock by 2050) and accumulating carbon to attain carbon retention potential (70% gain). Cumulative emissions from harvesting result in permanent elevation of atmospheric CO2 concentration (32 times the annual emission by rotation end). We recommend these time horizons and landscape scales for evaluating forest management to better guide policies and investments for achieving climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation.

Abstract Changes to Australia’s climate and land-use patterns could result in expanded spatial and temporal distributions of endemic mosquito vectors including Aedes and Culex species that transmit medically important arboviruses. Climate and land-use changes greatly influence the suitability of habitats for mosquitoes and their behaviors such as mating, feeding and oviposition. Changes in these behaviors in turn determine future species-specific mosquito diversity, distribution and abundance. In this review, we discuss climate and land-use change factors that influence shifts in mosquito distribution ranges. We also discuss the predictive and epidemiological merits of incorporating these factors into a novel integrated statistical (SSDM) and mechanistic species distribution modelling (MSDM) framework. One potentially significant merit of integrated modelling is an improvement in the future surveillance and control of medically relevant endemic mosquito vectors such as Aedes vigilax and Culex annulirostris, implicated in the transmission of many arboviruses such as Ross River virus and Barmah Forest virus, and exotic mosquito vectors such as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We conducted a focused literature search to explore the merits of integrating SSDMs and MSDMs with biotic and environmental variables to better predict the future range of endemic mosquito vectors. We show that an integrated framework utilising both SSDMs and MSDMs can improve future mosquito-vector species distribution projections in Australia. We recommend consideration of climate and environmental change projections in the process of developing land-use plans as this directly impacts mosquito-vector distribution and larvae abundance. We also urge laboratory, field-based researchers and modellers to combine these modelling approaches. Having many different variations of integrated (SDM) modelling frameworks could help to enhance the management of endemic mosquitoes in Australia. Enhanced mosquito management measures could in turn lead to lower arbovirus spread and disease notification rates.

Abstract The Interior Wetbelt (IWB) of British Columbia includes the globally rare Inland Temperate Rainforest (ITR) that if managed for its substantial carbon (C) stocks can contribute to Canada's Nationally Determined Commitment under the Paris Climate Agreement. We provide spatially explicit estimates of above‐ and belowground live and dead biomass and soil C stocks derived from three sources: (1) government online Vegetation Resources Inventory (VRI); (2) the GlobBiomass spatial dataset; and (3) field plots (n = 27) within old‐growth forests of the ITR. For live aboveground C, we summarize C stocks by elevation classes and decadal forest age. The upper bound on total C densities (above‐ and belowground live and dead biomass and soil C) based on VRI was a maximum of 806 megagrams (Mg) C ha−1. The mean total biomass C density measured in field plots was 583 Mg C ha−1 with a maximum of 1275 Mg C ha−1, which is on par with some of the world's most C‐dense temperate forests. About half the C is in live biomass pools with the rest in dead biomass and soil organic C pools. The mean C density from the VRI over all elevations was 182 Mg C ha−1, with soil organic C ~40% and live tree stems ~27%. Vegetation Resources Inventory estimates were 75% lower than field‐based measurements with the greatest mismatch in areas with the highest C density. Approximately 22% of the IWB has been logged, the majority since 1970s, resulting in live above ground C declining by at least 18%, although this is likely an underestimate. Logging was heavily concentrated in low (2000 m; 1.2%). The region contains underappreciated C stocks that can help Canada meet its climate and conservation targets, but only if there are major forestry reforms that protect C‐dense old‐growth forests, allow degraded forests time to recover the logging‐related C debt, and improve monitoring of C stocks and stock changes.

Humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, are a highly migratory species exposed to a wide range of environmental factors during their lifetime. The spatial and temporal characteristics of such factors play a significant role in determining suitable habitats for breeding, feeding and resting. The existing studies of the relationship between oceanic conditions and humpback whale ecology provide the basis for understanding impacts on this species. Here we have determined the most relevant environmental drivers identified in peer-reviewed literature published over the last four decades, and assessed the methods used to identify relationships. A total of 148 studies were extracted through an online literature search. These studies used a combined estimated 105,000 humpback whale observations over 1,216 accumulated study years investigating the relationship between humpback whales and environmental drivers in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Studies focusing on humpback whales in feeding areas found preferences for areas of upwelling, high chlorophyll-a concentration and frontal areas with changes in temperature, depth and currents, where prey can be found in high concentration. Preferred calving grounds were identified as shallow, warm and with slow water movement to aid the survival of calves. The few studies of migration routes have found preferences for shallow waters close to shorelines with moderate temperature and chlorophyll-a concentration. Extracting information and understanding the influence of key drivers of humpback whale behavioral modes are important for conservation, particularly in regard to expected changes of environmental conditions under climate change.

Global-scale conservation initiatives and policy instruments rely on ecosystem indicators to track progress towards targets and objectives. A deeper understanding of indicator interrelationships would benefit these efforts and help characterize ecosystem status. We study interrelationships among 34 indicators for mangroves, saltmarsh, and seagrass ecosystems, and develop data-driven, spatially explicit typologies of coastal wetland status at a global scale. After accounting for environmental covariates and gap-filling missing data, we obtained two levels of clustering at 5 and 18 typologies, providing outputs at different scales for different end users. We generated 2,845 cells (1° (lat) × 1° (long)) globally, of which 29.7% were characterized by high land- and marine-based impacts and a high proportion of threatened species, 13.5% by high climate-based impacts, and 9.6% were refuges with lower impacts, high fish density and a low proportion of threatened species. We identify instances where specific actions could have positive outcomes for coastal wetlands across regions facing similar issues. For example, land- and marine-based threats to coastal wetlands were associated with ecological structure and function indicators, suggesting that reducing these threats may reduce habitat degradation and threats to species persistence. However, several interdimensional relationships might be affected by temporal or spatial mismatches in data. Weak relationships mean that global biodiversity maps that categorize areas by single indicators (such as threats or trends in habitat size) may not be representative of changes in other indicators (e.g., ecosystem function). By simplifying the complex global mosaic of coastal wetland status and identifying regions with similar issues that could benefit from knowledge exchange across national boundaries, we help set the scene for globally and regionally coordinated conservation.

Vegetated coastal wetlands, including seagrass, saltmarsh and mangroves, are threatened globally, yet the need to avert these losses is poorly recognized in international policy, such as in the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals. Identifying the impact of overlooking coastal wetlands in ecosystem assessment frameworks could help prioritize research efforts to fill these gaps. Here, we examine gaps in the recognition of coastal wetlands in globally applicable ecosystem assessments. We address both shortfalls in assessment frameworks when it comes to assessing wetlands, and gaps in data that limit widespread application of assessments. We examine five assessment frameworks that track fisheries, greenhouse gas emissions, ecosystem threats, and ecosystem services. We found that these assessments inform management decisions, but that the functions provided by coastal wetlands are incompletely represented. Most frameworks had sufficient complexity to measure wetland status, but limitations in data meant they were incompletely informed about wetland functions and services. Incomplete representation of coastal wetlands may lead to them being overlooked by research and management. Improving the coverage of coastal wetlands in ecosystem assessments requires improving global scale mapping of wetland trends, developing global-scale indicators of wetland function and synthesis to quantitatively link animal population dynamics to wetland trends. Filling these gaps will help ensure coastal wetland conservation is properly informed to manage them for the outstanding benefits they bring humanity.

Deforestation and forest degradation from human land use, including primary forest loss, are of growing concern. The conservation of old-growth and other forests with important environmental values is central to many international initiatives aimed at protecting biodiversity, mitigating climate change impacts, and supporting sustainable livelihoods. Current remote-sensing products largely focus on deforestation rather than forest degradation and are dependent on machine learning, calibrated with extensive field measurements. To help address this, we developed a novel approach for mapping forest ecosystem stability, defined in terms of constancy, which is a key characteristic of long-undisturbed (including primary) forests. Our approach categorizes forests into stability classes based on satellite-data time series related to plant water–carbon relationships. Specifically, we used long-term dynamics of the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation intercepted by the canopy (fPAR) and shortwave infrared water stress index (SIWSI) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the period 2003–2018. We calculated a set of variables from annual time series of fPAR and SIWSI for representative forest regions at opposite ends of Earth’s climatic and latitudinal gradients: boreal forests of Siberia (southern taiga, Russia) and tropical rainforests of the Amazon basin (Kayapó territory, Brazil). Independent validation drew upon high-resolution Landsat imagery and forest cover change data. The results indicate that the proposed approach is accurate and applicable across forest biomes and, thereby, provides a timely and transferrable method to aid in the identification and conservation of stable forests. Information on the location of less stable forests is equally relevant for ecological restoration, reforestation, and proforestation activities.

Primary forests are essential ecosystems that can play a key role in mitigating climate change. REDD+ is designed to help countries and communities secure benefits for avoiding deforestation but has faced significant implementation challenges. There are substantial potential benefits for REDD+ in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where shifting agriculture is the major cause of deforestation. However, implementation requires significant capacity building in a number of sectors and at a number of levels. This paper explores how well the capacity building activities within the DRC REDD+ strategy are aligned with the capacity needs identified by provincial government stakeholders and local communities in the Équateur province of the DRC, identified through workshops and surveys. The research suggests that while many technical capacity needs identified by stakeholders could be potentially addressed by the REDD+ strategy, there are number of systemic capacity needs that are unlikely to be addressed. Failure to address these needs risks undermining any implementation of REDD+. The results suggest that education and training in governance and management, as well as fundamental education in sustainability, are key capacity needs that REDD+ may need to incorporate. The results also provide further evidence that REDD+ projects need to be long-term and take into account the local context and needs in order to be effective.

Meeting the Paris Agreement global warming target requires deep and rapid cuts in CO _2 emissions as well as removals from the atmosphere into land sinks, especially forests. While international climate policy in the land sector does now recognize forest protection as a mitigation strategy, it is not receiving sufficient attention in developed countries even though they experience emissions from deforestation as well as from logging of managed forests. Current national greenhouse gas inventories obscure the mitigation potential of forest protection through net carbon accounting between the fossil fuel and the land sectors as well as within the different categories of the land. This prevents decision-makers in national governments, the private sector and civil society having access to all the science-based evidence needed to evaluate the merits of all mitigation strategies. The consequences of net carbon accounting for global policy were investigated by examining annual inventory reports of four high forest cover developed countries (Australia, Canada, USA, and Russia). Net accounting between sectors makes a major contribution to meeting nationally determined contributions with removals in Forest Land offsetting between 14% and 38% of the fossil fuel emissions for these countries. Analysis of reports for Australia at a sub-national level revealed that the State of Tasmania delivered negative emissions due to a change in forest management—a large and rapid drop in native forest logging—resulting in a mitigation benefit of ∼22 Mt CO _2 -e yr ^–1 over the reported period 2011/12–2018/19. This is the kind of outcome required globally to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goal. All CO _2 emissions from, and atmospheric removals into, forest ecosystem carbon stocks now matter and should be counted and credited to achieve the deep and rapid cuts in emissions needed over the coming decades. Accounting and reporting systems therefore need to show gains and losses of carbon stocks in each reservoir. Changing forest management in naturally regenerating forests to avoid emissions from harvesting and enabling forest regrowth is an effective mitigation strategy that can rapidly reduce anthropogenic emissions from the forest sector and simultaneously increase removals of CO _2 from the atmosphere.

Schulze et al. (GCB Bioenergy, 2020, 12, 186–197) argue against putting forests into conservation, alleging that managing forests, including for bioenergy, produces more climate mitigation than letting them grow. However, this conclusion is based on not counting emissions from burning biomass, and other carbon accounting sleight of hand. This is a letter regarding https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12672

The unprecedented challenges posed by climate change necessitate agricultural adaptation by farmers, especially in the regions of Asia, where rain-fed agriculture is the principal source of food production. Studying adaptation not only assists in knowing how farmers are dealing with the repercussions of climate change, but also provides the baseline for the planned interventions which are essential in this era of human-instigated climate change. We used case study data to examine whether and how subsistence-oriented smallholder farmers in three agro-ecological zones of Nepal (Terai, Hill, and Mountain) are developing and implementing adaptation strategies. The findings from small farm household interviews (n = 384), key informant interviews (n = 33), and focus group discussions (n = 3) suggest that farmers are dealing with the challenges facing their traditional agricultural practices. The main adaptation strategies include changing crop types and varieties, adding fertilizers, the use of new technologies, soil and water management, diversification of income sources, and migration. Both climatic and non-climatic factors were found to influence these subsistence smallholder farmers’ adaptation practices. However, climatic factors that are beyond individual control threatened the livelihood of rural farmers who predominantly rely on natural resources for their livelihood and income. The findings highlight the interplay of multiple agents: local farmers, community-based organizations, and the local and central government organizations in the role they play in assisting farmers adapt to the impacts of climate change; this interplay emphasizes the need for collaboration for effective adaptation. The findings from this study can inform policymakers about ongoing adaptation measures as well as the needs of farmers. This information can assist in bridging the gap between farm households and policymakers and help develop suitable policies and effective adaptation strategies within this local Nepalese context.

The Interior Wetbelt (IWB) of British Columbia, which includes the globally rare Inland Temperate Rainforest (ITR), contains primary forests poorly attributed and neglected in conservation planning. We evaluated the IWB and ITR using four IUCN Red List of Ecosystems Criteria: geographic distribution, environmental degradation (abiotic and biotic factors), and likelihood of ecosystem collapse. Clearcut logging (3.2M ha) represented 57% of all anthropogenic disturbances, reducing potential primary forest by 2.7 million ha (28%) for the IWB and 524,003 ha (39%) for the ITR. Decadal logging rates nearly doubled from 5.3% to 10.2% from 1970s–2000s. Core areas (buffered by 100-m from roads and developments) declined by 70% to 95% for the IWB and ITR, respectively. Vulnerable was assigned to karst, the only abiotic factor assessed, because it was associated with rare plants. For biotic factors, Old-Growth Birds were Vulnerable, Southern Woodland Caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) habitat and Sensitive Fish were Endangered, and Old-Growth Lichens habitat was Critical. Overall, the IWB was ranked as Endangered and the ITR as Critical with core area collapse possible within 9 to 18 years for the ITR, considered one of the world’s most imperiled temperate rainforests.

Fire refugia—unburnt habitat within a wildfire’s perimeter—play a key role in wildlife persistence and recovery. While studies have shown that the location of refugia is influenced by local topographic factors, growing evidence points to extreme fire weather becoming the dominant factor driving high-severity wildfires that result in the location of fire refugia being less predictable. Between September 2019 and February 2020, a series of mega-fires in eastern Australia burned largely in broadleaf forest. We assessed burned and unburned areas of forest in eastern Australia using Sentinel-2 satellite data, aggregated monthly over the fire season to calculate a fire severity layer at a 20 m pixel resolution. We found that fires burned 5.7 × 10 ^6 ha ^−1 of forest and woodland. The total percentage area of unburned forest within the wildfire footprint was approximately 10%. The majority (94%) of the unburnt forest and woodland patches within the fire perimeter occurred as patches 100 ha) ( n = 575 and 286 080 ha). Boosted regression tree analyses of the relationships between fire severity and potential explanatory variables revealed that 63%–78% of the variable importance in the models were climatic and weather-related factors. Fire weather index was the single most important variable for analyses, accounting for 40%–52% of modelled results. Our results reinforce mounting evidence that a shift is underway in the balance between deterministic and contingent factors in the occurrence of fire refugia with local topographic controls being increasingly overridden by severe fire weather conditions, and declining topographic effects as fire severity increases. Further studies are needed over a longer time frame, inclusive of prior forest management impacts, to confirm that the ability to predict fire refugia is permanently declining.

This study examines whether there is a biodiversity benefit (“dividend”) associated with the existence and management of conservation reserves in the extensive and largely natural landscape of northern Australia. Species richness and abundance of vertebrate fauna and the intensity of a range of disturbance factors were compared across a set of 967 sampled quadrats, located either in pastoral lands, Indigenous lands or conservation reserves, with all sampled quadrats within a single vegetation type (open forests and savannah woodlands dominated by Eucalyptus miniata and/or E. tetrodonta). The relationships with land tenure varied between major taxonomic groups, but generally (and particularly for threatened species) values were highest for conservation reserves. This “biodiversity dividend” associated with conservation reserves is considered to be due to the effects of management rather than because conservation reserves were established on lands supporting atypically high conservation values. The impact of weeds and (unsurprisingly) livestock was greatest on pastoral lands, and pig impact was greatest in conservation reserves. Although pastoral and Indigenous lands supported lower biodiversity tallies than reserved lands, the conservation values of reserved lands in this region are probably substantially supported by the maintenance of relatively intact ecological systems across all lands.

Climate change mitigation benefits from the land sector are not being fully realised because of uncertainty and controversy about the role of native forest management. The dominant policy view, as stated in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, is that sustainable forest harvesting yielding wood products, generates the largest mitigation benefit. We demonstrate that changing native forest management from commercial harvesting to conservation can make an important contribution to mitigation. Conservation of native forests results in an immediate and substantial reduction in net emissions relative to a reference case of commercial harvesting. We calibrated models to simulate scenarios of native forest management for two Australian case studies: mixed-eucalypt in New South Wales and Mountain Ash in Victoria. Carbon stocks in the harvested forest included forest biomass, wood and paper products, waste in landfill, and bioenergy that substituted for fossil fuel energy. The conservation forest included forest biomass, and subtracted stocks for the foregone products that were substituted by non-wood products or plantation products. Total carbon stocks were lower in harvested forest than in conservation forest in both case studies over the 100-year simulation period. We tested a range of potential parameter values reported in the literature: none could increase the combined carbon stock in products, slash, landfill and substitution sufficiently to exceed the increase in carbon stock due to changing management of native forest to conservation. The key parameters determining carbon stock change under different forest management scenarios are those affecting accumulation of carbon in forest biomass, rather than parameters affecting transfers among wood products. This analysis helps prioritise mitigation activities to focus on maximising forest biomass. International forest-related policies, including negotiations under the UNFCCC, have failed to recognize fully the mitigation value of native forest conservation. Our analyses provide evidence for decision-making about the circumstances under which forest management provides mitigation benefits.

Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.