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BackgroundWith a decline in malaria burden, innovative interventions and tools are required to reduce malaria transmission further. Mass drug administration (MDA) of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been identified as a potential tool to further reduce malaria transmission, where coverage of vector control interventions is already high. However, the impact is limited in time. Combining an ACT with an endectocide treatment that is able to reduce vector survival, such as ivermectin (IVM), could increase the impact of MDA and offer a new tool to reduce malaria transmission. ObjectiveThe study objective is to evaluate the impact of MDA with IVM plus dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) on malaria transmission in an area with high coverage of malaria control interventions. MethodsThe study is a cluster randomized trial in the Upper River Region of The Gambia and included 32 villages (16 control and 16 intervention). A buffer zone of ~2 km was created around all intervention clusters. MDA with IVM plus DP was implemented in all intervention villages and the buffer zones; control villages received standard malaria interventions according to the Gambian National Malaria Control Program plans. ResultsThe MDA campaigns were carried out from August to October 2018 for the first year and from July to September 2019 for the second year. Statistical analysis will commence once the database is completed, cleaned, and locked. ConclusionsThis is the first cluster randomized clinical trial of MDA with IVM plus DP. The results will provide evidence on the impact of MDA with IVM plus DP on malaria transmission. Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT03576313; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03576313 International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)DERR1-10.2196/20904

Introduction: Efficient utilisation of surgical resources is essential when providing surgical care in low-resources settings. Countries are developing plans to scale up surgery, though insufficiently based on empirical evidence. This paper investigates the determinants of hospital efficiency in district hospitals in three African countries. Methods: Three-month data, comprising surgical capacity indicators and volumes of major surgical procedures collected from 61 district-level hospitals in Malawi, Tanzania, and Zambia, were analysed. Data envelopment analysis was used to calculate average hospital efficiency scores (max. = 1) for each country. Quantile regression analysis was selected to estimate the relationship between surgical volume and production factors. Two-stage bootstrap regression analysis was used to estimate the determinants of hospital efficiency. Results: Average hospital efficiency scores were 0.77 in Tanzania, 0.70 in Malawi and 0.41 in Zambia. Hospitals with high efficiency scores had significantly more surgical staff compared with low efficiency hospitals (DEA score<1). Hospitals that scored high on the most commonly utilised surgical capacity index were not the ones with high surgical volumes or high efficiency. The number of surgical team members, which was lowest in Zambia, was strongly, positively correlated with surgical productivity and efficiency. Conclusion: Hospital efficiency, combining capacity measures and surgical outputs, is a better indicator of surgical performance than capacity measures, which could be misleading if used alone for surgical planning. Investment in the surgical workforce, in particular, is critical to improving district hospital surgical productivity and efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A functionally effective referral system that links district level hospitals (DLHs) with referral hospitals (RHs) facilitates surgical patients getting timely access to specialist surgical expertise not available locally. Most published studies from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have examined only selected aspects of such referral systems, which are often fragmented. Inadequate understanding of their functionality leads to missed opportunities for improvements. This research aimed to investigate the functionality of the referral system for surgical patients in Malawi, a low-income country. Methods: This study, conducted in 2017-2019, integrated principles from two theories. We used network theory to explore interprofessional relationships between DLHs and RHs at referral network, member (hospital) and community levels; and used principles from complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory to unpack the mechanisms of network dynamics. The study employed mixed-methods, specifically surveys (n = 22 DLHs), interviews with clinicians (n = 20), and a database of incoming referrals at two sentinel RHs over a six-month period. Results: Obstacles to referral system functionality in Malawi included weaknesses in formal coordination structures, notably: unclear scope of practice of district surgical teams; lack of referral protocols; lack of referral communication standards; and misaligned organisational practices. Deficiencies in informal relationships included mistrust and uncollaborative operating environments, undermining coordination between DLHs and RHs. Poor system functionality adversely impacted the quality, efficiency and safety of patient referral-related care. Respondents identified aspects of the district-RH relationships, which could be leveraged to build more collaborative and productive inter-professional relationships in the future. Conclusion: Multi-level interventions are needed to address failures at both ends of the referral pathway. This study captured new insights into longstanding problems in referral systems in resource-limited settings, contributing to a better understanding of how to build more functional systems to optimise the continuum and quality of surgical care for rural populations in similar settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Adherence to behavioral measures such as physical distancing are key to mitigating the effects of viral pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Adherence depends in part on people's perception of what others do (descriptive norms) or approve of (injunctive norms). This study examines the effects that exposure to images depicting people following or breaking physical distancing rules have on perceptions of descriptive and injunctive norms and subsequent adherence behavior. Methods: An online between-subjects experiment (n = 315) was conducted, in which participants were exposed to a set of five photographs of different public spaces in which people either did or did not adhere to physical distancing rules (pre-registration: https://www.osf.io/uek2p). Participants' adherence behavior was measured using a triangulation of measures (incentivized online behavioral task, vignettes, intention measure). Perceptions of relevant social norms were also measured. Results: Mann-Whitney tests showed no effects of condition on perceptions of descriptive and injunctive norms or on adherence behavior. Linear regressions showed that both component paths of the indirect effect (condition on norm perceptions, and norm perceptions on adherence behavior) were non-significant, hence mediation analyses were not conducted. Conclusions: Exposure to images of people following (compared to breaking) physical distancing rules did not affect adherence to such rules or perceived norms. We surmise that a single exposure to such images, especially in the context of COVID-19, is insufficient to affect behavior. We therefore recommend performing a comparable experiment in which participants are exposed repeatedly to images showing people (non)adhering to a specific behavior in a particular context for a longer period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is much scope to empower district hospital (DH) surgical teams in low- and middle-income countries to undertake a wider range and a larger number of surgical procedures so as to make surgery more accessible to rural populations and decrease the number of unnecessary referrals to central hospitals (CHs). For surgical team mentoring in the form of field visits to be undertaken as a routine activity, it needs to be embedded in the local context. This paper explores the complex dimensions of implementing surgical team mentoring in Malawi by identifying stakeholder-sourced scenarios that fit with, among others, national policy and regulations, incentives to perform surgery, career opportunities, competing priorities, alternatives for performing surgery locally and the proximity and role of referral hospitals. Methods: A mixed methods approach was used which combined stakeholder input - obtained through two group model building (GMB) workshops and further consultations with local stakeholders and SURG-Africa project staff - and dynamic modeling to explore policy options for sustaining and rolling out surgical team mentoring. Sensitivity analyses were also performed. Results: Each of the two GMB workshops resulted in a causal loop diagram (CLD) with an array of factors and feedback loops describing the complexity of surgical team mentoring. Six implementation scenarios were defined to perform such mentoring. For each the resource requirements were identified for the institutions involved - notably DHs, CHs and the party that would finance the required mentoring trips - along with the potential for scaling up surgery at DHs under severe financial constraints. Conclusion: To sustain surgical mentoring, it is important that an approach of continued communication, monitoring, and (re-)evaluation is taken. In addition, an output- or performance-based financing scheme for DHs is required to incentivize them to scale up surgery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Scaling up surgery at district hospitals (DHs) is the critical challenge if the Tanzanian national Surgical, Obstetric, and Anesthesia Plan (NSOAP) objectives are to be achieved. Our study aims to address this challenge by taking a dynamic view of surgical scale-up at the district level using a participatory research approach. Methods: A group model building (GMB) workshop was held with 18 professionals from three hospitals in the Arusha region. They built a graphical representation of the local system of surgical services delivery through a facilitated discussion that employed the nominal group technique. This resulted in a causal loop diagram (CLD) from which the participants identified the requirements for scaling-up surgery and the stakeholders who could satisfy these. After the GMB sessions, we identified clusters of related variables using inductive thematic analysis and the main feedback loops driving the model. Results: The CLD consists of 57 variables. These include the 48 variables that were obtained through the nominal group technique and those that participants added later. We identified 6 themes: patient benefits, financing of surgery, cost sharing, staff motivation, communication, and effects on referral hospital. There are 5 self-reinforcing feedback loops: training, learning, meeting demand, revenues, and willingness to work in a good hospital. There are four self-correcting feedback loops or ‘resistors to change:’ recurrent costs, income lost, staff stress, and brain drain. Conclusion: This study provides a systems view on the scaling up of surgery from a district level perspective. Its results enable a critical appraisal of the feasibility of implementing the NSOAP. Our results suggest that policy-makers should be wary of ‘quick fixes’ that have short term gains only. Long term policy that considers the complex dynamics of surgical systems and that allows for periodic evaluation and adaption is needed to scale up surgery in a sustainable manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Access to surgical care is poor in Tanzania. The country is at the implementation stage of its first National Surgical, Obstetric, and Anesthesia Plan (NSOAP; 2018-2025) aiming to scale up surgery. This study aimed to calculate the costs of providing surgical care at the district and regional hospitals. Methods: Two district hospitals (DHs) and the regional referral hospital (RH) in Arusha region were selected. All the staff, buildings, equipment, and medical and non-medical supplies deployed in running the hospitals over a 12 month period were identified and quantified from interviews and hospital records. Using a combination of step-down costing (SDC) and activity-based costing (ABC), all costs attributed to surgeries were established and then distributed over the individual types of surgeries. These costs were delineated into pre-operative, intra-operative, and post-operative components. Results: The total annual costs of running the clinical cost centres ranged from $567k at Oltrumet DH to $3453k at Mt Meru RH. The total costs of surgeries ranged from $79k to $813k; amounting to 12%-22% of the total costs of running the hospitals. At least 70% of the costs were salaries. Unit costs and relative shares of capital costs were generally higher at the DHs. Two-thirds of all the procedures incurred at least 60% of their costs in the theatre. Open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) performed at the regional hospital was cheaper ($618) than surgical debridement (plus conservative treatment) due to prolonged post-operative inpatient care associated with the latter ($1177), but was performed infrequently due mostly to unavailability of implants. Conclusion: Lower unit costs and shares of capital costs at the RH reflect an advantage of economies of scale and scope at the RH, and a possible underutilization of capacity at the DHs. Greater efficiencies make a case for concentration and scale-up of surgical services at the RHs, but there is a stronger case for scaling up district-level surgeries, not only for equitable access to services, but also to drive down unit costs there, and free up RH resources for more complex cases such as ORIF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Routine vaccination annually prevents millions of deaths worldwide but is underutilized in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The complexity of socio-cultural factors impacting vaccine uptake is not well understood. Hence, this paper aims to review the socio-cultural determinants of vaccine uptake and visualize their interrelationships. We conducted a literature search using Pubmed and Embase databases, including articles published from 2000 to 2019 describing socio-cultural demand-side determinants for vaccine uptake. Using the Andersen and Newman Framework of Health Services Utilization, demand-side determinants were categorized as predisposing, enabling or need factors. A qualitative system dynamics approach was employed to visualize how these factors and their dynamic interrelationships influence vaccine uptake. This visualization, by means of a causal-loop diagram (CLD), was mostly based on a qualitative input, with the majority being statements of the authors. These statements were abstracted from the papers found in the review. Quantification was done by counting direct (statistical) associations between each determinant and 'timely and full routine immunization coverage'. A total of 90 articles, primarily from Nigeria (n = 23), Ethiopia (n = 17) and Kenya (n = 11), met the inclusion criteria. We find that maternal autonomy and the perceived benefits caregivers attach to vaccination and exert their influences on many other factors through several feedback loops, thereby influencing timely and full routine immunization coverage. Utilization of health services (supply-related) and access to information (demand-related) were considered as high-potential leverage points. Quantification has shown that maternal autonomy and perceived benefit have an unclear evidence base. Future research should focus on these key players as they play a central role in multiple complex pathways, through which they could influence the uptake of vaccines in SSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In low-income and middle-income countries, an estimated one in three clinical adverse events happens in non-complex situations and 83% are preventable. Poor quality of care also leads to inefficient use of human, material and financial resources for health. Improving outcomes and mitigating the risk of adverse events require effective monitoring and quality control systems. Aim To assess the state of surgical monitoring and quality control systems at district hospitals (DHs) in Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia. Methods A mixed-methods cross-sectional study of 75 DHs: Malawi (22), Tanzania (30) and Zambia (23). This included a questionnaire, interviews and visual inspection of operating theatre (OT) registers. Data were collected on monitoring and quality systems for surgical activity, processes and outcomes, as well as perceived barriers. Results 53% (n=40/75) of DHs use more than one OT register to record surgical operations. With the exception of standardised printed OT registers in Zambia, the register format (often handwritten books) and type of data collected varied between DHs. Monthly reports were seldom analysed by surgical teams. Less than 30% of all surveyed DHs used surgical safety checklists (n=22/75), and <15% (n=11/75) performed surgical audits. 73% (n=22/30) of DHs in Tanzania and less than half of DHs in Malawi (n=11/22) and Zambia (n=10/23) conducted surgical case reviews. Reports of surgical morbidity and mortality were compiled in 65% (n=15/23) of Zambian DHs, and in less than one-third of DHs in Tanzania (n=9/30) and Malawi (n=4/22). Reported barriers to monitoring and quality systems included an absence of formalised guidelines, continuous training opportunities as well as inadequate accountability mechanisms. Conclusions Surgical monitoring and quality control systems were not standard among sampled DHs. Improvements are needed in standardisation of quality measures used; and in ensuring data completeness, analysis and utilisation for improving patient outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Supervision by surgical specialists is beneficial because they can impart skills to district hospital-level surgical teams. The SURG-Africa project in Zambia comprises a mentoring trial in selected districts, involving two provincial-level mentoring teams. The aim of this paper is to explore policy options for embedding such surgical mentoring in existing policy structures through a participatory modeling approach. Methods: Four group model building workshops were held, two each in district and central hospitals. Participants worked in a variety of institutions and had clinical and/or administrative backgrounds. Two independent reviewers compared the causal loop diagrams (CLDs) that resulted from these workshops in a pairwise fashion to construct an integrated CLD. Graph theory was used to analyze the integrated CLD, and dynamic system behavior was explored using the Method to Analyse Relations between Variables using Enriched Loops (MARVEL) method. Results: The establishment of a provincial mentoring faculty, in collaboration with key stakeholders, would be a necessary step to coordinate and sustain surgical mentoring and to monitor district-level surgical performance. Quarterly surgical mentoring reviews at the provincial level are recommended to evaluate and, if needed, adapt mentoring. District hospital administrators need to closely monitor mentee motivation. Conclusions: Surgical mentoring can play a key role in scaling up district-level surgery but its implementation is complex and requires designated provincial level coordination and regular contact with relevant stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Estimating the value of medical treatments to patients is an essential part of healthcare decision making, but is mostly done implicitly and without consulting patients. Multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been proposed for the valuation task, while stated preference studies are increasingly used to measure patient preferences. In this study we propose a methodology for using stated preferences to weigh clinical evidence in an MCDA model that includes uncertainty in both patient preferences and clinical evidence explicitly.Methods: A probabilistic MCDA model with an additive value function was developed and illustrated using a case on hypothetical treatments for depression. The patient-weighted values were approximated with Monte Carlo simulations and compared to expert-weighted results. Decision uncertainty was calculated as the probability of rank reversal for the first rank. Furthermore, scenario analyses were done to assess the relative impact of uncertainty in preferences and clinical evidence, and of assuming uniform preference distributions.Results: The patient-weighted values for drug A, drug B, drug C, and placebo were 0.51 (95% CI: 0.48 to 0.54), 0.51 (95% CI: 0.48 to 0.54), 0.54 (0.49 to 0.58), and 0.15 (95% CI: 0.13 to 0.17), respectively. Drug C was the most preferred treatment and the rank reversal probability for first rank was 27%. This probability decreased to 18% when uncertainty in performances was not included and increased to 41% when uncertainty in criterion weights was not included. With uniform preference distributions, the first rank reversal probability increased to 61%. The expert-weighted values for drug A, drug B, drug C, and placebo were 0.67 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.68), 0.57 (95% CI: 0.56 to 0.59), 0.67 (95% CI: 0.61 to 0.71), and 0.19 (95% CI: 0.17 to 0.21). The rank reversal probability for the first rank according to experts was 49%.Conclusions: Preferences elicited from patients can be used to weigh clinical evidence in a probabilistic MCDA model. The resulting treatment values can be contrasted to results from experts, and the impact of uncertainty can be quantified using rank probabilities. Future research should focus on integrating the model with regulatory decision frameworks and on including other types of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Routine vaccination annually prevents millions of deaths worldwide but is underutilized in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The complexity of socio-cultural factors impacting vaccine uptake is not well understood. Hence, this paper aims to review the socio-cultural determinants of vaccine uptake and visualize their interrelationships. We conducted a literature search using Pubmed and Embase databases, including articles published from 2000 to 2019 describing socio-cultural demand-side determinants for vaccine uptake. Using the Andersen and Newman Framework of Health Services Utilization, demand-side determinants were categorized as predisposing, enabling or need factors. A qualitative system dynamics approach was employed to visualize how these factors and their dynamic interrelationships influence vaccine uptake. This visualization, by means of a causal-loop diagram (CLD), was mostly based on a qualitative input, with the majority being statements of the authors. These statements were abstracted from the papers found in the review. Quantification was done by counting direct (statistical) associations between each determinant and 'timely and full routine immunization coverage'. A total of 90 articles, primarily from Nigeria (n = 23), Ethiopia (n = 17) and Kenya (n = 11), met the inclusion criteria. We find that maternal autonomy and the perceived benefits caregivers attach to vaccination and exert their influences on many other factors through several feedback loops, thereby influencing timely and full routine immunization coverage. Utilization of health services (supply-related) and access to information (demand-related) were considered as high-potential leverage points. Quantification has shown that maternal autonomy and perceived benefit have an unclear evidence base. Future research should focus on these key players as they play a central role in multiple complex pathways, through which they could influence the uptake of vaccines in SSA., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)