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Wastewater surveillance has become a fundamental tool to monitor the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in order to prepare timely public health responses. In this study we integrate available clinical data on hospital admissions with wastewater surveillance data and investigate if predictions of the number of hospital admissions due to COVID-19 in Danish hospitals are improved by including wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2. We implement state space models to describe the relationship between the number of hospital admissions due to COVID-19, available with a three-week classification delay, and more recent numbers of total hospital admissions with COVID-19. Including wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2, we consider five-week predictions of the number of hospital admissions due to COVID-19. As a result of the three-week classification delay, the predictions translate into two hindcasts, one nowcast and two forecasts. The predicted values for all time frames follow the observed numbers well. We find that log likelihood values are higher when including wastewater concentrations (across all horizons) and that lagging the wastewater observations to investigate whether changes in wastewater concentrations occur before changes in hospital admissions does not result in further improvements. Our study shows that including wastewater concentrations improve estimates of the number of hospital admissions due to COVID-19, implying that wastewater concentrations add valuable information about the underlying transmission and that the imminent development of the near-future disease burden from COVID-19 is better informed when carefully including wastewater concentrations., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objective: The effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP) is threatened by increasing SP-resistance in Africa. We assessed the level of SP-resistance markers, and the clinical and parasitological effectiveness of IPTp-SP in southern Mozambique., Methods: P. falciparum infection, antimalarial antibodies and dhfr/dhps SP-resistance mutants were detected by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), suspension array technology and targeted deep sequencing, respectively, among 4016 HIV-negative women in Maputo province (2016-2019). Univariate and multivariate regression models were used to assess the association between taking the recommended three or more IPTp-SP doses (IPTp3+) and parasitological and clinical outcomes., Results: 84.3% (3385/4016) women received three or more IPTp-SP doses. The prevalence of quintuple mutants at first antenatal care (ANC) visit was 94.2%. IPTp3+ was associated with a higher clearance rate of qPCR-detected infections from first ANC visit to delivery (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=5.9, 95% CI: 1.5-33.3; p = 0.012), lower seroprevalence at delivery of antibodies against the pregnancy-specific antigen VAR2CSA DBL34 (aOR=0.72, 95% CI: 0.54-0.95; p = 0.022), and lower prevalence of low birth weight deliveries (aOR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.41-0.90; p = 0.013)., Conclusion: A sustained parasitological effect of IPTp-SP contributes to the clinical effectiveness of IPTp3+ in areas with high prevalence of SP-resistance markers., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest All authors reported no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Routine sampling of pregnant women at first antenatal care (ANC) visits could make Plasmodium falciparum genomic surveillance more cost-efficient and convenient in sub-Saharan Africa. We compare the genetic structure of parasite populations sampled from 289 first ANC users and 93 children from the community in Mozambique between 2015 and 2019. Samples are amplicon sequenced targeting 165 microhaplotypes and 15 drug resistance genes. Metrics of genetic diversity and relatedness, as well as the prevalence of drug resistance markers, are consistent between the two populations. In an area targeted for elimination, intra-host genetic diversity declines in both populations (p = 0.002-0.007), while for the ANC population, population genetic diversity is also lower (p = 0.0004), and genetic relatedness between infections is higher (p = 0.002) than control areas, indicating a recent reduction in the parasite population size. These results highlight the added value of genomic surveillance at ANC clinics to inform about changes in transmission beyond epidemiological data., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Routine sampling of pregnant women at first antenatal care (ANC) visits could make Plasmodium falciparum genomic surveillance more cost-efficient and convenient in sub-Saharan Africa. We compared the genetic structure of parasite populations sampled from 289 first ANC attendees and 93 children from the community in Mozambique between 2015 and 2019. Samples were amplicon sequenced targeting 165 microhaplotypes and 15 drug resistance genes. Metrics of genetic diversity and relatedness, as well as the prevalence of drug resistance markers, were consistent between the two populations. In an area targeted for elimination, intra-host genetic diversity declined in both populations (p=0.002-0.007), while for the ANC population, population genetic diversity was also lower (p=0.0004), and genetic relatedness between infections were higher (p=0.002) than control areas, indicating a recent reduction in the parasite population size. These results highlight the added value of genomic surveillance at ANC clinics to inform about changes in transmission beyond epidemiological data., Competing Interests: Declaration of interest All authors reported no conflicts of interest.

Pregnant women attending first antenatal care (ANC) visits represent a promising malaria surveillance target in Sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed the spatio-temporal relationship between malaria trends at ANC (n = 6471) and in children in the community (n = 3933) and at health facilities (n = 15,467) in southern Mozambique (2016-2019). ANC P. falciparum rates detected by quantitative polymerase chain reaction mirrored rates in children, regardless of gravidity and HIV status (Pearson correlation coefficient [PCC] > 0.8, χ²<1.1), with a 2-3 months lag. Only at rapid diagnostic test detection limits at moderate-to-high transmission, did multigravidae show lower rates than children (PCC = 0.61, 95%CI[-0.12-0.94]). Seroprevalence against the pregnancy-specific antigen VAR2CSA reflected declining malaria trends (PCC = 0.74, 95%CI[0.24-0.77]). 60% (9/15) of hotspots detected from health facility data (n = 6662) using a novel hotspot detector, EpiFRIenDs, were also identified with ANC data (n = 3616). Taken together, we show that ANC-based malaria surveillance offers contemporary information on temporal trends and geographic distribution of malaria burden in the community., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Pregnant women attending first antenatal care (ANC) visits represent a promising malaria surveillance target in Sub-Saharan Africa. Here we assessed the spatio-temporal relationship between malaria at ANC (n=6,471), in children at the community(n=9,362) and at health facilities (n=15,467) in southern Mozambique (2016-2019). ANC P. falciparum rates detected by quantitative polymerase chain reaction mirrored rates in children, regardless of gravidity and HIV status (Pearson correlation coefficient [PCC]>0.8, χ²<1.1), with a 2-3 months lag. Only at rapid diagnostic test detection limits at moderate-to-high transmission, multigravidae showed lower rates than children (PCC=0.61, 95%CI[-0.12-0.94]). Seroprevalence against the pregnancy-specific antigen VAR2CSA reflected declining malaria trends (PCC=0.74, 95%CI[0.24-0.77]). 80% (12/15) of hotspots detected from health facility data using a novel hotspot detector, EpiFRIenDs, were also identified with ANC data. The results show that ANC-based malaria surveillance offers contemporary information on temporal trends and the geographic distribution of malaria burden in the community.

Background: Low-density Plasmodium falciparum infections prevail in low transmission settings, where immunity is expected to be minimal, suggesting an immune-independent effect on parasite densities. We aimed to describe parasite densities in pregnancy, and determine how gravidity and antibody-mediated immunity affect these, during a period of declining malaria transmission in southern Mozambique., Methods: We documented P. falciparum infections at first antenatal care visits (n = 6471) between November 2016 and October 2019 in Ilha Josina (high-to-moderate transmission area), Manhiça (low transmission area), and Magude (pre-elimination area). Two-way interactions in mixed-effects regression models were used to assess gravidity-dependent differences in quantitative PCR-determined P. falciparum positivity rates (PfPR qPCR ) and densities, in the relative proportion of detectable infections (pDi) with current diagnostic tests (≥ 100 parasites/μL) and in antimalarial antibodies., Results: PfPR qPCR declined from 28 to 13% in Ilha Josina and from 5-7 to 2% in Magude and Manhiça. In primigravidae, pDi was highest in Ilha Josina at the first study year (p = 0.048), which declined with falling PfPR qPCR (relative change/year: 0.41, 95% CI [0.08; 0.73], p = 0.029), with no differences in antibody levels. Higher parasite densities in primigravidae from Ilha Josina during the first year were accompanied by a larger reduction of maternal hemoglobin levels (- 1.60, 95% CI [- 2.49; - 0.72; p < 0.001), than in Magude (- 0.76, 95% CI [- 1.51; - 0.01]; p = 0.047) and Manhiça (- 0.44, 95% CI [- 0.99; 0.10; p = 0.112). In contrast, multigravidae during the transmission peak in Ilha Josina carried the lowest pDi (p = 0.049). As PfPR qPCR declined, geometric mean of parasite densities increased (4.63, 95% CI [1.28; 16.82], p = 0.020), and antibody levels declined among secundigravidae from Ilha Josina., Conclusions: The proportion of detectable and clinically relevant infections is the highest in primigravid women from high-to-moderate transmission settings and decreases with declining malaria. In contrast, the falling malaria trends are accompanied by increased parasite densities and reduced humoral immunity among secundigravidae. Factors other than acquired immunity thus emerge as potentially important for producing less detectable infections among primigravidae during marked declines in malaria transmission., (© 2022. The Author(s).)