28 results on '"Cai, Yongxia"'
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2. Insights from adding transportation sector detail into an economy-wide model: The case of the ADAGE CGE model
- Author
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Cai, Yongxia, Woollacott, Jared, Beach, Robert H., Rafelski, Lauren E., Ramig, Christopher, and Shelby, Michael
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- 2023
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3. Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil
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Lucena, André F.P., Hejazi, Mohamad, Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline, Turner, Sean, Köberle, Alexandre C., Daenzer, Kathryn, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Kober, Tom, Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., Gernaat, David, van Vuuren, Detlef P., and van der Zwaan, Bob
- Published
- 2018
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4. Logging residue supply and costs for electricity generation: Potential variability and policy considerations
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Baker, Justin S., Crouch, Adam, Cai, Yongxia, Latta, Greg, Ohrel, Sara, Jones, Jason, and Latané, Annah
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- 2018
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5. Macroeconomic impacts of climate change mitigation in Latin America: A cross-model comparison
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Kober, Tom, Summerton, Philip, Pollitt, Hector, Chewpreecha, Unnada, Ren, Xiaolin, Wills, William, Octaviano, Claudia, McFarland, James, Beach, Robert, Cai, Yongxia, Calderon, Silvia, Fisher-Vanden, Karen, and Rodriguez, Ana Maria Loboguerrero
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- 2016
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6. TRAM1 protects AR42J cells from caerulein-induced acute pancreatitis through ER stress-apoptosis pathway
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Cai, Yongxia, Shen, Yanbo, Xu, Guangling, Tao, Ran, Yuan, Weiyan, Huang, Zhongwei, and Zhang, Dongmei
- Published
- 2016
7. Protected areas' role in climate-change mitigation
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Melillo, Jerry M., Lu, Xiaoliang, Kicklighter, David W., Reilly, John M., Cai, Yongxia, and Sokolov, Andrei P.
- Published
- 2016
8. Karyopherin Alpha 2 Promotes the Inflammatory Response in Rat Pancreatic Acinar Cells Via Facilitating NF-κB Activation
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Cai, Yongxia, Shen, Yanbo, Gao, Lili, Chen, Minmin, Xiao, Min, Huang, Zhongwei, and Zhang, Dongmei
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- 2016
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9. OGT-mediated O-GlcNAcylation promotes NF-κB activation and inflammation in acute pancreatitis
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Zhang, Dongmei, Cai, Yongxia, Chen, Minmin, Gao, Lili, Shen, Yanbo, and Huang, Zhongwei
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- 2015
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10. The role of China in mitigating climate change
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Paltsev, Sergey, Morris, Jennifer, Cai, Yongxia, Karplus, Valerie, and Jacoby, Henry
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- 2012
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11. Valuing climate impacts in integrated assessment models: the MIT IGSM
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Reilly, John, Paltsev, Sergey, Strzepek, Ken, Selin, Noelle E., Cai, Yongxia, Nam, Kyung-Min, Monier, Erwan, Dutkiewicz, Stephanie, Scott, Jeffery, Webster, Mort, and Sokolov, Andrei
- Published
- 2013
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12. Confronting Energy, Food, and Climate Challenges – Analyzing Tradeoffs in Agriculture and Land Use Change
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Cai, Yongxia and Beach, Robert H.
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Agricultural and Food Policy ,Environmental Economics and Policy ,Land Economics/Use - Abstract
Maintaining and improving future food and energy security poses key challenges globally, especially in the face of climate change and climate mitigation. a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model -- the Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy model focusing on agriculture and land use (ADAGE-ALU), is used to examine how the global economy, especially energy, agriculture and land use, responds when facing these challenges. Despite continued increases in land productivity and energy efficiency in future decades, the effects of population and economic growth would dominate, leading to global increases in agricultural production, but also rising food and energy prices as well as continually growing GHG emissions in the BAU scenario. Comparing the climate change scenario with the BAU scenario, there are substantial reductions in global crop production and significant further increases in food prices, but little change in fossil fuel and biofuel production and energy prices, and only mild increases in CO2 emissions due to land-use changes. Relative to the BAU case, the implementation of a carbon tax on emissions other than those from land use change leads to the expansion of global biofuel production and a shift in the mix of crops produced towards those used as biofuels feedstocks, raises food prices, and reduces oil consumption and price slightly. Meanwhile, GHG emissions are slightly reduced as a result of lower oil consumption. In the REDD scenario, some cropland is afforested to store carbon, leading to a moderate rise in food and energy prices and significant GHG emission reductions. When climate change, REDD scenarios are implemented together, we see even higher reductions in global crop production and larger food price increases, along with greater reduction in GHG emissions compared with the CC scenario.
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- 2015
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13. Exploring the Implications of Oil Prices for Global Biofuels, Food Security, and GHG Mitigation
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Cai, Yongxia, Beach, Robert H., and Zhang, Yuquan
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Agricultural and Food Policy ,Resource /Energy Economics and Policy ,Biofuels ,Oil Price ,Computable General Equilibrium ,Environmental Economics and Policy ,Food security ,GHG Mitigation ,Food Security and Poverty - Abstract
Efforts to satisfy global energy demand and improve food security while simultaneously taking action to mitigate climate change pose many key challenges for the world. In this study, the Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE), a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, is applied to examine the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply/price, land use change and climate mitigation potential, when both first and second generation biofuel feedstocks are considered. The results indicate despite a continued increase in land productivity and energy efficiency, increases in population and economic growth lead to a global increase in agriculture production, rising food, agriculture, biofuels, and energy prices, and land conversion from the other four land types to cropland in the REF scenario from 2010 to 2040. Oil price plays an important role in biofuel expansion. Globally, higher oil price leads to the expansion of biofuel production, increasing its share in total liquid fuel consumption in the private transportation sector. Consequently, more land is allocated for biofuel production, reducing global agriculture output and increasing agricultural consumption prices. Although emissions from land-use change increase, the overall emissions including fossil fuel emissions decreases. Regions display different patterns on biofuel expansions, land-use change, prices for food/agriculture and energy/biofuels, and GHG emissions.
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- 2014
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14. China’s Agriculture under Urbanization: A Partial Equilibrium Analysis
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Zhang, Yuquan W., Beach, Robert H., and Cai, Yongxia
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Agricultural and Food Policy ,International Relations/Trade ,Research Methods/ Statistical Methods - Published
- 2013
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15. Tradeoff of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, a General Equilibrium Analysis
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Cai, Yongxia, Birur, Dileep K., Beach, Robert H., and Davis, Lauren M.
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ADAGE ,Production Economics ,International Relations/Trade ,Resource /Energy Economics and Policy ,Biofuels ,Recursive Dynamic ,Computable General Equilibrium ,International Development - Abstract
Global production of biofuels has been expanding with the enduring concerns on climate change and energy security. The U.S. Congress has established a renewable fuel standard 2 (RFS2) rule that mandates annual combined production of 36 billion gallons (bg) biofuels by 2022 (USEPA, 2010). Large scale production of biofuels results in far-reaching intended and unintended consequences on the economy and environment. In this study, a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) - Applied Dynamic Analysis of Global Economy -- ADAGE-Biofuel is developed to examine the global implications of the U.S. RFS2 policy. This model is built upon a dynamic version of ADAGE model (Ross, 2009) by introducing eight crop categories, one livestock and one forestry sectors, seven first generation biofuels, three second generation biofuels and five land categories and explicitly model land-use changes. We find out that despite of continued increase in land productivity and energy efficiency, increase in population and economic growth leads to a global-wide increase in agriculture production, rise in price of food, agriculture, biofuel and energy and land conversion from the other four land types to cropland from 2010 to 2025 when RFS2 is not implemented and biofuel consumption remain at the base year (2010) level in all the regions until 2025 (BAU scenario). The implementation of RFS2 policy would require 36.3 million ha (mha) of land for switchgrass production by 2025, where 34.8 mha from existing cropland, 0.9 mha from pasture, and 0.6 mha from managed forest land. Compared with the BAU scenario, price is projected to increase by around 5~7% for eight crops, 1.6% for livestock and 1.6% for forestry as a result of reducing production. Globally, due to reduction in agriculture exports from U.S. as a result of the RFS2 policy, all other regions would allocate slightly more land for crop and food production, leading to gentle loss of natural grassland and natural forestland, especially in Africa, which would lose 0.5 million ha of natural grassland for crop and livestock production. The RFS2 policy would bring environmental benefits too. The accumulated carbon saving from 2010 to 2025 would be arround 392 mmt c globally with 207 mmt c from fossile fuel and 185 mmt from land. Among it, U.S. alone would contribute 300 mmt c with 208 mmt c from fossile fuel and 92 mmt c from land.
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- 2013
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16. Green House Gas Mitigation Policy, Bio-fuels and Land-use Change- a Dynamic Analysis
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Cai, Yongxia, Kicklighter, David W., Gurgel, Angelo Costa, Paltsev, Sergey, Cronin, Timothy W., Reilly, John M., and Melillo, Jerry M.
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Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies ,Resource /Energy Economics and Policy - Published
- 2010
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17. Climate Change and Texas Water Planning: an Economic Analysis of Inter-basin Water Transfers
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Cai, Yongxia and McCarl, Bruce A.
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Climate Change ,Environmental Stream Flows ,Water Scarcity ,Inter-basin Water Transfers ,Environmental Economics and Policy - Abstract
Panel models with random effects are used to estimate how climate influences in-stream surface water supply, municipal water demand, crop yields and irrigation water use. The results are added into TEXRIVERSIM, a state wide economic, hydrological, environmental and inter-basin water transfer (IBTs) investment model, through the objective function and hydrological constraints. A climate change related scenario analysis from the Global Circulation Models (GCMs)--Hadley, Canadian, BCCR and NCAR with SRES scenarios A1B, B1, and A2 indicates that inter-basin water transfers not only greatly relax water scarcity problems for major cities and industrial counties, but also create growth opportunity for Houston. However, while destination basins receive the benefits, source basins will experience dramatic reduction in in-stream flow and water flows to bays and estuaries. Climate change requires accelerated water development with more IBTs proving economically feasible depending on the GCMs and SRES scenarios.
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- 2009
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18. Risk Perception and Altruistic Averting Behavior: Removing Arsenic in Drinking Water
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Cai, Yongxia, Shaw, W. Douglass, and Wu, Ximing
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Resource /Energy Economics and Policy ,Risk and Uncertainty - Abstract
Self protection and altruism are crucial behavioral factors in determining the effectiveness of public policies aimed to improve human health from environmental hazards. This paper examined people’s arsenic mortality risk perception in the drinking water for themselves and their children using the Bayesian learning framework. A two-stage structural model within the random utility framework was developed to model the household’s risk averting behavior with respect to arsenic-related mortality risk. The empirical results indicate that parents engage in a form of mixed altruism. Parents are willing to spend more to make a trade-off between their risk and their children’s risk.
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- 2008
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19. The Effect of Food-Away-from-Home and Food-at-Home Expenditures on Obesity Rates: A State-Level Analysis
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Cai, Yongxia, Alviola, Pedro A., Nayga, Rodolfo M., and Wu, Ximing
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obesity ,digestive, oral, and skin physiology ,state-level analysis ,overweight ,Agribusiness ,food-at-home expenditures ,food-away-from-home expenditures ,Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety ,random effects model - Abstract
Using state-level data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, we investigate the effects of household food-away-from-home and food-at-home expenditures on overweight rates, obesity rates, and combined rates. Our random effects model estimates suggest that food-away-from-home expenditures are positively related to obesity and combined rates, while food-at-home expenditures are negatively related to obesity and combined rates. However, the magnitudes of these effects, while statistically significant, are relatively small. Both food-at-home and food-away-from-home expenditures do not significantly influence overweight rates.
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- 2008
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20. Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison.
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Lampe, Martin, Willenbockel, Dirk, Ahammad, Helal, Blanc, Elodie, Cai, Yongxia, Calvin, Katherine, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Heyhoe, Edwina, Kyle, Page, Lotze‐Campen, Hermann, Mason d'Croz, Daniel, Nelson, Gerald C., Sands, Ronald D., Schmitz, Christoph, Tabeau, Andrzej, Valin, Hugo, Mensbrugghe, Dominique, and Meijl, Hans
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FOOD ,FARM management ,AGRICULTURAL economics ,META-analysis ,BIOMASS energy ,LAND use ,ECONOMICS - Abstract
Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Several key conclusions emerge from this exercise: First, for a comparison of scenario results to be meaningful, a careful analysis of the interpretation of the relevant model variables is essential. For instance, the use of 'real world commodity prices' differs widely across models, and comparing the prices without accounting for their different meanings can lead to misleading results. Second, results suggest that, once some key assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines but remains important. For example, given the common assumptions of the reference scenario, models show average annual rates of changes of real global producer prices for agricultural products on average ranging between −0.4% and +0.7% between the 2005 base year and 2050. This compares to an average decline of real agricultural prices of 4% p.a. between the 1960s and the 2000s. Several other common trends are shown, for example, relating to key global growth areas for agricultural production and consumption. Third, differences in basic model parameters such as income and price elasticities, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. Fourth, the analysis shows that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2014
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21. Opportunities and spatial hotspots for irrigation expansion in Guatemala to support development goals in the food-energy-water nexus.
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Wade, Christopher M., Baker, Justin S., Van Houtven, George, Cai, Yongxia, Lord, Benjamin, Castellanos, Edwin, Leiva, Benjamín, Fuentes, Gabriela, Alfaro, Gabriela, Kondash, AJ, Henry, Candise L., Shaw, Brooke, and Redmon, Jennifer Hoponick
- Subjects
- *
IRRIGATION water , *IRRIGATION , *IRRIGATION farming , *WATER distribution , *PRECIPITATION variability , *WATER currents - Abstract
Climate change, growing populations, and increasing wealth are increasing demand for food, energy, and water. Additionally, water stress is expected to increase in the future in areas with high rates of seasonality of precipitation, due to increased variability in precipitation. One approach to limiting the impact of climate change on food system productions is through the intensive and extensive expansion of irrigated agriculture. This study develops a hydro-economic model to assess future agriculture production possibilities and the role of irrigation water in the Pacific Slope region of Guatemala, one of the most productive agricultural regions in the country. A range of future scenarios are presented to account for uncertainty around irrigation infrastructure expansion, future crop prices, incentives for production of biomass for bioenergy, and water availability and irrigation demand due to climate change. We find that current surface water irrigation infrastructure increases agricultural output by value in the region by about 5.3% compared to a fully rainfed system. Additionally, we show that with expanded irrigation infrastructure, agricultural output could increase by between 3.4% and 18.4% relative to current levels under current climate conditions, but the value of agricultural production could increase under climate change with projected output from current and expanded irrigation infrastructure resulting in an increase of 1.2–24.8% relative to current irrigation levels. We also present evidence that the marginal benefit from increased irrigation access to smallholder farmers is nearly equal to that received by large-scale industrial agricultural producers. • We defelop a spatially and temporally explicit hydro-economic model to assess alternative irrigation expansion scenarios. • We find that climate change has the potential to shift the location and timing of benefits received from irrigation. • The marginal benefits from irrigation expansion received by small farms are larger than that received by industrial farms. • Climate change has the potential to change the spatial and temporal distribution of irrigation water availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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22. Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia
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David W. Kicklighter, Yongxia Cai, Andrei P. Sokolov, Qianlai Zhuang, John M. Reilly, Sergey Paltsev, Elena I. Parfenova, N. M. Tchebakova, Jerry M. Melillo, Xiaoliang Lu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change, MIT Energy Initiative, Cai, Yongxia, Paltsev, Sergey, Sokolov, Andrei P., and Reilly, John M.
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Fire regime ,Land use ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,Agroforestry ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Land management ,Carbon sink ,Climate change ,Carbon sequestration ,medicine ,Environmental science ,Ecosystem ,medicine.symptom ,Vegetation (pathology) ,General Environmental Science - Abstract
Climate change will alter ecosystem metabolism and may lead to a redistribution of vegetation and changes in fire regimes in Northern Eurasia over the 21st century. Land management decisions will interact with these climate-driven changes to reshape the region's landscape. Here we present an assessment of the potential consequences of climate change on land use and associated land carbon sink activity for Northern Eurasia in the context of climate-induced vegetation shifts. Under a 'business-as-usual' scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts allow expansion of areas devoted to food crop production (15%) and pastures (39%) over the 21st century. Under a climate stabilization scenario, climate-induced vegetation shifts permit expansion of areas devoted to cellulosic biofuel production (25%) and pastures (21%), but reduce the expansion of areas devoted to food crop production by 10%. In both climate scenarios, vegetation shifts further reduce the areas devoted to timber production by 6–8% over this same time period. Fire associated with climate-induced vegetation shifts causes the region to become more of a carbon source than if no vegetation shifts occur. Consideration of the interactions between climate-induced vegetation shifts and human activities through a modeling framework has provided clues to how humans may be able to adapt to a changing world and identified the trade-offs, including unintended consequences, associated with proposed climate/energy policies., United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Land-Cover and Land-Use Change program NASA-NNX09A126G)
- Published
- 2014
23. Oxidative stress and acute pancreatitis (Review).
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Cai Y, Yang F, and Huang X
- Abstract
Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common inflammatory disorder of the exocrine pancreas that causes severe morbidity and mortality. Although the pathophysiology of AP is poorly understood, a substantial body of evidence suggests some critical events for this disease, such as dysregulation of digestive enzyme production, cytoplasmic vacuolization, acinar cell death, edema formation, and inflammatory cell infiltration into the pancreas. Oxidative stress plays a role in the acute inflammatory response. The present review clarified the role of oxidative stress in the occurrence and development of AP by introducing oxidative stress to disrupt cellular Ca2
+ balance and stimulating transcription factor activation and excessive release of inflammatory mediators for the application of antioxidant adjuvant therapy in the treatment of AP., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests., (Copyright: © 2024 Cai et al.)- Published
- 2024
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24. Projecting the Impact of Socioeconomic and Policy Factors on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Carbon Sequestration in U.S. Forestry and Agriculture.
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Wade CM, Baker JS, Jones JPH, Austin KG, Cai Y, de Hernandez AB, Latta GS, Ohrel SB, Ragnauth S, Creason J, and McCarl B
- Abstract
Understanding greenhouse gas mitigation potential of the U.S. agriculture and forest sectors is critical for evaluating potential pathways to limit global average temperatures from rising more than 2° C. Using the FASOMGHG model, parameterized to reflect varying conditions across shared socioeconomic pathways, we project the greenhouse gas mitigation potential from U.S. agriculture and forestry across a range of carbon price scenarios. Under a moderate price scenario ($20 per ton CO
2 with a 3% annual growth rate), cumulative mitigation potential over 2015-2055 varies substantially across SSPs, from 8.3 to 17.7 GtCO2 e. Carbon sequestration in forests contributes the majority, 64-71%, of total mitigation across both sectors. We show that under a high income and population growth scenario over 60% of the total projected increase in forest carbon is driven by growth in demand for forest products, while mitigation incentives result in the remainder. This research sheds light on the interactions between alternative socioeconomic narratives and mitigation policy incentives which can help prioritize outreach, investment, and targeted policies for reducing emissions from and storing more carbon in these land use systems.- Published
- 2022
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25. A Hydro-Economic Methodology for the Food-Energy-Water Nexus: Valuation and Optimization of Water Resources
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Baker JS, Van Houtven G, Cai Y, Moreda F, Wade C, Henry C, Redmon JH, and Kondash AJ
- Abstract
Growing global water stress caused by the combined effects of growing populations, increasing economic development, and climate change elevates the importance of managing and allocating water resources in ways that are economically efficient and that account for interdependencies between food production, energy generation, and water networks—often referred to as the “food-energy-water (FEW) nexus.” To support these objectives, this report outlines a replicable hydro-economic methodology for assessing the value of water resources in alternative uses across the FEW nexus—including for agriculture, energy production, and human consumption—and maximizing the benefits of these resources through optimization analysis. The report’s goal is to define the core elements of an integrated systems-based modeling approach that is generalizable, flexible, and geographically portable for a range of FEW nexus applications. The report includes a detailed conceptual framework for assessing the economic value of water across the FEW nexus and a modeling framework that explicitly represents the connections and feedbacks between hydrologic systems (e.g., river and stream networks) and economic systems (e.g., food and energy production). The modeling components are described with examples from existing studies and applications. The report concludes with a discussion of current limitations and potential extensions of the hydro-economic methodology., (© 2021 Research Triangle Institute. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2021
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26. Importance of Cross-Sector Interactions When Projecting Forest Carbon across Alternative Socioeconomic Futures.
- Author
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Jones JPH, Baker JS, Austin K, Latta G, Wade CM, Cai Y, Aramayo-Lipa L, Beach R, Ohrel SB, Ragnauth S, Creason J, and Cole J
- Abstract
In recent decades, the carbon sink provided by the U.S. forest sector has offset a sizable portion of domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the future, the magnitude of this sink has important implications not only for projected U.S. net GHG emissions under a reference case but also for the cost of achieving a given mitigation target. The larger the contribution of the forest sector towards reducing net GHG emissions, the less mitigation is needed from other sectors. Conversely, if the forest sector begins to contribute a smaller sink, or even becomes a net source, mitigation requirements from other sectors may need to become more stringent and costlier to achieve economy wide emissions targets. There is acknowledged uncertainty in estimates of the carbon sink provided by the U.S. forest sector, attributable to large ranges in the projections of, among other things, future economic conditions, population growth, policy implementation, and technological advancement. We examined these drivers in the context of an economic model of the agricultural and forestry sectors, to demonstrate the importance of cross-sector interactions on projections of emissions and carbon sequestration. Using this model, we compared detailed scenarios that differ in their assumptions of demand for agriculture and forestry products, trade, rates of (sub)urbanization, and limits on timber harvest on protected lands. We found that a scenario assuming higher demand and more trade for forest products resulted in increased forest growth and larger net GHG sequestration, while a scenario featuring higher agricultural demand, ceteris paribus led to forest land conversion and increased anthropogenic emissions. Importantly, when high demand scenarios are implemented conjunctively, agricultural sector emissions under a high income-growth world with increased livestock-product demand are fully displaced by substantial GHG sequestration from the forest sector with increased forest product demand. This finding highlights the potential limitations of single-sector modeling approaches that ignore important interaction effects between sectors.
- Published
- 2019
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27. Implications of Alternative Land Conversion Cost Specifications on Projected Afforestation Potential in the United States.
- Author
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Cai Y, Wade CM, Baker JS, Jones JPH, Latta GS, Ohrel SB, Ragnauth SA, and Creason JR
- Abstract
The Forestry and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) has historically relied on regional average costs of land conversion to simulate land use change across cropland, pasture, rangeland, and forestry. This assumption limits the accuracy of the land conversion estimates by not recognizing spatial heterogeneity in land quality and conversion costs. Using data from Nielsen et al. (2014), we obtained the afforestation cost per county, then estimated nonparametric regional marginal cost functions for land converting to forestry. These afforestation costs were then incorporated into FASOMGHG. Three different assumptions for land moving into the forest sector (constant average conversion cost, static rising marginal costs, and dynamic rising marginal cost) were run in order to assess the implications of alternative land conversion cost assumptions on key outcomes, such as projected forest area and cropland use, carbon sequestration, and forest product output.
- Published
- 2018
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28. Using land to mitigate climate change: hitting the target, recognizing the trade-offs.
- Author
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Reilly J, Melillo J, Cai Y, Kicklighter D, Gurgel A, Paltsev S, Cronin T, Sokolov A, and Schlosser A
- Subjects
- Atmosphere chemistry, Biofuels analysis, Carbon analysis, Carbon Dioxide analysis, Conservation of Energy Resources economics, Internationality, Models, Theoretical, Temperature, Agriculture economics, Climate Change economics, Conservation of Natural Resources economics
- Abstract
Land can be used in several ways to mitigate climate change, but especially under changing environmental conditions there may be implications for food prices. Using an integrated global system model, we explore the roles that these land-use options can play in a global mitigation strategy to stabilize Earth's average temperature within 2 °C of the preindustrial level and their impacts on agriculture. We show that an ambitious global Energy-Only climate policy that includes biofuels would likely not achieve the 2 °C target. A thought-experiment where the world ideally prices land carbon fluxes combined with biofuels (Energy+Land policy) gets the world much closer. Land could become a large net carbon sink of about 178 Pg C over the 21st century with price incentives in the Energy+Land scenario. With land carbon pricing but without biofuels (a No-Biofuel scenario) the carbon sink is nearly identical to the case with biofuels, but emissions from energy are somewhat higher, thereby results in more warming. Absent such incentives, land is either a much smaller net carbon sink (+37 Pg C - Energy-Only policy) or a net source (-21 Pg C - No-Policy). The significant trade-off with this integrated land-use approach is that prices for agricultural products rise substantially because of mitigation costs borne by the sector and higher land prices. Share of income spent on food for wealthier regions continues to fall, but for the poorest regions, higher food prices lead to a rising share of income spent on food.
- Published
- 2012
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