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Abstract Background Immunocompromised individuals are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes, underscoring the importance of COVID-19 vaccination in this population. The lack of comprehensive real-world data on vaccine uptake, effectiveness and safety in these individuals presents a critical knowledge gap, highlighting the urgency to better understand and address the unique challenges faced by immunocompromised individuals in the context of COVID-19 vaccination. Methods We analysed data from 12,274,946 people in the UK aged > 12 years from 01/12/2020 to 11/04/2022. Of these, 583,541 (4.8%) were immunocompromised due to immunosuppressive drugs, organ transplants, dialysis or chemotherapy. We undertook a cohort analysis to determine COVID-19 vaccine uptake, nested case–control analyses adjusted for comorbidities and sociodemographic characteristics to determine effectiveness of vaccination against COVID-19 hospitalisation, ICU admission and death, and a self-controlled case series assessing vaccine safety for pre-specified adverse events of interest. Results Overall, 93.7% of immunocompromised individuals received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose, with 80.4% having received three or more doses. Uptake reduced with increasing deprivation (hazard ratio [HR] 0.78 [95%CI 0.77–0.79] in the most deprived quintile compared to the least deprived quintile for the first dose). Estimated vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalisation 2–6 weeks after the second and third doses compared to unvaccinated was 78% (95%CI 72–83) and 91% (95%CI 88–93) in the immunocompromised population, versus 85% (95%CI 83–86) and 86% (95%CI 85–89), respectively, for the general population. Results showed COVID-19 vaccines were protective against intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death in both populations, with effectiveness of over 92% against COVID-19-related death and up to 95% in reducing ICU admissions for both populations following the third dose. COVID-19 vaccines were generally safe for immunocompromised individuals, though specific doses of ChAdOx1, mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 raised risks of specific cardiovascular/neurological conditions. Conclusions COVID-19 vaccine uptake is high in immunocompromised individuals on immunosuppressive drug therapy or who have undergone transplantation procedures, with documented disparities by deprivation. Findings suggest that COVID-19 vaccines are protective against severe COVID-19 outcomes in this vulnerable population, and show a similar safety profile in immunocompromised individuals and the general population, despite some increased risk of adverse events. These results underscore the importance of ongoing vaccination prioritisation for this clinically at-risk population to maximise protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes.

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic and consequent lockdowns had a substantial impact on mental health. Distress and fatigue are highly correlated. However, little is known about the determinants of fatigue in the general population during the pandemic. This study aimed to examine the prevalence and predictors of fatigue during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK population. Online surveys were completed by a UK community cohort in April 2020 (wave 1), July-September 2020 (wave 2) and November-December 2020 (wave 3). In total, 3097 participants completed the wave 1 survey, and 1385 and 1087 participants (85.4% women) completed wave 2 and 3 surveys respectively. Fatigue was assessed using the Chalder Fatigue Scale at waves 2 and 3. Hair samples were provided by 827 participants (90.6% women) at wave 1 and wave 2, which were analyzed to indicate HairE (stress hormone). The mean total fatigue score during wave 2 was 14.7 (SD = 4.7), significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels observed in the community (mean difference 0.50, p = .003). At wave 2, 614 (44.3%) participants met the case definition for fatigue, only 15.6% of whom indicated that fatigue lasted for more than 6 months (suggesting it had started prior to the pandemic). Predictors of fatigue at wave 3 included being in a risk group, depression and belief in having COVID-19, which explained 23.8% of the variability in fatigue scores. Depression at wave 1 was the only significant predictor of remaining a fatigue case at wave 3. Fatigue was highly prevalent in the UK community during the COVID-19 pandemic and limited people’s daily function. Depression and sociodemographic variables were significant predictors of fatigue.

Objective: To investigate the causal association between Osteoarthritis (OA) and five comorbidities: depression, tiredness, multisite chronic pain, irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) and gout. Design: This study used two-sample Mendelian Randomisation (MR). To select the OA genetic instruments, we used data from the largest recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) of OA (GO Consortium), with a focus on OA of the knee (62,497 cases, 333,557 controls), hip (35,445 cases, 316,943 controls) and hand (20,901 cases, 282,881 controls). Genetic associations for comorbidities were selected from GWAS for depression (246,363 cases, 561,190 controls), tiredness (449,019 participants), multisite chronic pain (387,649 participants), IBS (53,400 cases, 433,201 controls) and gout (6543 cases, 456,390 controls). We performed a bidirectional MR analysis using the inverse variance weighted method, for both joint specific and overall OA. Results: Hip OA had a causal effect on multisite chronic pain (per unit change 0.02, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.04). Multisite chronic pain had a causal effect on knee (odd ratio (OR) 2.74, 95% CI 2.20 to 3.41), hip (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.54 to 2.92), hand (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.59 to 3.16) and overall OA (OR 2.44, 95% CI, 2.06 to 2.86). In addition, depression and tiredness had causal effects on knee and hand, but not hip, OA. Conclusions: Apart from Hip OA to multisite chronic pain, other joint OA did not have causal effects on these comorbidities. In contrast, multisite chronic pain had a causal effect on any painful OA.

Abstract Background Heterogeneous studies have demonstrated ethnic inequalities in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and adverse COVID-19 outcomes. This study evaluates the association between ethnicity and COVID-19 outcomes in two large population-based cohorts from England and Canada and investigates potential explanatory factors for ethnic patterning of severe outcomes. Methods We identified adults aged 18 to 99 years in the QResearch primary care (England) and Ontario (Canada) healthcare administrative population-based datasets (start of follow-up: 24th and 25th Jan 2020 in England and Canada, respectively; end of follow-up: 31st Oct and 30th Sept 2020, respectively). We harmonised the definitions and the design of two cohorts to investigate associations between ethnicity and COVID-19-related death, hospitalisation, and intensive care (ICU) admission, adjusted for confounders, and combined the estimates obtained from survival analyses. We calculated the ‘percentage of excess risk mediated’ by these risk factors in the QResearch cohort. Results There were 9.83 million adults in the QResearch cohort (11,597 deaths; 21,917 hospitalisations; 2932 ICU admissions) and 10.27 million adults in the Ontario cohort (951 deaths; 5132 hospitalisations; 1191 ICU admissions). Compared to the general population, pooled random-effects estimates showed that South Asian ethnicity was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 death (hazard ratio: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.09-2.44), hospitalisation (1.53; 1.32-1.76), and ICU admission (1.67; 1.23-2.28). Associations with ethnic groups were consistent across levels of deprivation. In QResearch, sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors accounted for 42.9% (South Asian) and 39.4% (Black) of the excess risk of COVID-19 death. Conclusion International population-level analyses demonstrate clear ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 risks. Policymakers should be cognisant of the increased risks in some ethnic populations and design equitable health policy as the pandemic continues.

Background There is an increasing demand for mental health services for young people, which may vary across the year.Objective To determine whether there are seasonal patterns in primary care antidepressant prescribing and mental health issues in adolescents and young adults.Methods This cohort study used anonymised electronic health records from general practices in England contributing to QResearch. It included 5 081 263 males and females aged 14–18 (adolescents), 19–23 and 24–28 years between 2006 and 2019. The incidence rates per 1000 person-years and the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated for the first records of a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) prescription, depression, anxiety and self-harm. The IRRs were adjusted for year, region, deprivation, ethnic group and number of working days.Findings There was an increase in SSRI prescribing, depression and anxiety incidence in male and female adolescents in the autumn months (September–November) that was not seen in older age groups. The IRRs for SSRI prescribing for adolescents peaked in November (females: 1.75, 95% CI 1.67 to 1.83, p

Summary: Background: Methods to identify patients at increased risk of oesophageal cancer are needed to better identify those for targeted screening. We aimed to derive and validate novel risk prediction algorithms (CanPredict) to estimate the 10-year risk of oesophageal cancer and evaluate performance against two other risk prediction models. Methods: Prospective open cohort study using routinely collected data from 1804 QResearch® general practices. We used 1354 practices (12.9 M patients) to develop the algorithm. We validated the algorithm in 450 separate practices from QResearch (4.12 M patients) and 355 Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) practices (2.53 M patients). The primary outcome was an incident diagnosis of oesophageal cancer found in GP, mortality, hospital, or cancer registry data. Patients were aged 25–84 years and free of oesophageal cancer at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were used with prediction selection to derive risk equations. Risk factors included age, ethnicity, Townsend deprivation score, body mass index (BMI), smoking, alcohol, family history, relevant co-morbidities and medications. Measures of calibration, discrimination, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated in the validation cohorts. Finding: There were 16,384 incident cases of oesophageal cancer in the derivation cohort (0.13% of 12.9 M). The predictors in the final algorithms were: age, BMI, Townsend deprivation score, smoking, alcohol, ethnicity, Barrett's oesophagus, hiatus hernia, H. pylori infection, use of proton pump inhibitors, anaemia, lung and blood cancer (with breast cancer in women). In the QResearch validation cohort in women the explained variation (R2) was 57.1%; Royston’s D statistic 2.36 (95% CI 2.26–2.46); C statistic 0.859 (95% CI 0.849–0.868) and calibration was good. Results were similar in men. For the 20% at highest predicted risk, the sensitivity was 76%, specificity was 80.1% and the observed risk at 10 years was 0.76%. The results from the CPRD validation were similar. Interpretation: We have developed and validated a novel prediction algorithm to quantify the absolute risk of oesophageal cancer. The CanPredict algorithms could be used to identify high risk patients for targeted screening. Funding: Innovate UK and CRUK (grant 105857).

This longitudinal study investigated changes in and risk factors for anxiety and depression during the COVID-19 pandemic in a New Zealand cohort. Online surveys were distributed to 681 participants at three time-points: May 2020 (Time 1), August–September 2020 (Time 2), and March–April 2021 (Time 3). Participants completed measures of anxiety and depression, alongside measures of possible risk/protective factors. A total of 261 participants completed all three surveys and were included in analyses. Depression and anxiety reduced over time; however, levels were still significantly higher than pre-pandemic norms. Being younger, having a prior mental health disorder, experiencing negative life events due to COVID-19, and being a pet owner were risk factors for poorer depression and anxiety, whereas having higher positive mood was protective. This study demonstrates persisting negative effects of the pandemic on anxiety and depression in a context of low transmission and highlights the importance of providing psychological help to those most at risk.

Abstract Background and research aim The incidence and mortality of liver cancer have been increasing in the UK in recent years. However, liver cancer is still under-studied. The Early Detection of Hepatocellular Liver Cancer (DeLIVER-QResearch) project aims to address the research gap and generate new knowledge to improve early detection and diagnosis of primary liver cancer from general practice and at the population level. There are three research objectives: (1) to understand the current epidemiology of primary liver cancer in England, (2) to identify and quantify the symptoms and comorbidities associated with liver cancer, and (3) to develop and validate prediction models for early detection of liver cancer suitable for implementation in clinical settings. Methods This population-based study uses the QResearch® database (version 46) and includes adult patients aged 25–84 years old and without a diagnosis of liver cancer at the cohort entry (study period: 1 January 2008–30 June 2021). The team conducted a literature review (with additional clinical input) to inform the inclusion of variables for data extraction from the QResearch database. A wide range of statistical techniques will be used for the three research objectives, including descriptive statistics, multiple imputation for missing data, conditional logistic regression to investigate the association between the clinical features (symptoms and comorbidities) and the outcome, fractional polynomial terms to explore the non-linear relationship between continuous variables and the outcome, and Cox/competing risk regression for the prediction model. We have a specific focus on the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year absolute risks of developing liver cancer, as risks at different time points have different clinical implications. The internal–external cross-validation approach will be used, and the discrimination and calibration of the prediction model will be evaluated. Discussion The DeLIVER-QResearch project uses large-scale representative population-based data to address the most relevant research questions for early detection and diagnosis of primary liver cancer in England. This project has great potential to inform the national cancer strategic plan and yield substantial public and societal benefits.

Abstract Background The experience sampling method (ESM) is an intensive longitudinal research method. Participants complete questionnaires at multiple times about their current or very recent state. The design of ESM studies is complex. People with psychosis have been shown to be less adherent to ESM study protocols than the general population. It is not known how to design studies that increase adherence to study protocols. A lack of typology makes it is hard for researchers to decide how to collect data in a way that allows for methodological rigour, quality of reporting, and the ability to synthesise findings. The aims of this systematic review were to characterise the design choices made in ESM studies monitoring the daily lives of people with psychosis, and to synthesise evidence relating the data completeness to different design choices. Methods A systematic review was conducted of published literature on studies using ESM with people with psychosis. Studies were included if they used digital technology for data collection and reported the completeness of the data set. The constant comparative method was used to identify design decisions, using inductive identification of design decisions with simultaneous comparison of design decisions observed. Weighted regression was used to identify design decisions that predicted data completeness. The review was pre-registered (PROSPERO CRD42019125545). Results Thirty-eight studies were included. A typology of design choices used in ESM studies was developed, which comprised three superordinate categories of design choice: Study context, ESM approach and ESM implementation. Design decisions that predict data completeness include type of ESM protocol used, length of time participants are enrolled in the study, and if there is contact with the research team during data collection. Conclusions This review identified a range of design decisions used in studies using ESM in the context of psychosis. Design decisions that influence data completeness were identified. Findings will help the design and reporting of future ESM studies. Results are presented with the focus on psychosis, but the findings can be applied across different mental health populations.

Objectives Uptake of influenza, pneumococcal and shingles vaccines in older adults vary across regions and socioeconomic backgrounds. In this study, we study the coverage and factors associated with vaccination uptake, as well as refusal in the unvaccinated population and their associations with ethnicity, deprivation, household size and health conditions.Design, setting and participants This is a cross-sectional study of adults aged 65 years or older in England, using a large primary care database. Associations of vaccine uptake and refusal in the unvaccinated with ethnicity, deprivation, household size and health conditions were modelled using multivariable logistic regression.Outcome measure Influenza, pneumococcal and shingles vaccine uptake and refusal (in the unvaccinated).Results This study included 2 054 463 patients from 1318 general practices. 1 711 465 (83.3%) received at least one influenza vaccine, 1 391 228 (67.7%) pneumococcal vaccine and 690 783 (53.4%) shingles vaccine. Compared with White ethnicity, influenza vaccine uptake was lower in Chinese (OR 0.49; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.53), ‘Other ethnic’ groups (0.63; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.65), black Caribbean (0.68; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.71) and black African (0.72; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.77). There was generally lower vaccination uptake among more deprived individuals, people living in larger household sizes (three or more persons) and those with fewer health conditions. Among those who were unvaccinated, higher odds of refusal were associated with the black Caribbean ethnic group and marginally with increased deprivation, but not associated with higher refusal in those living in large households or those with lesser health conditions.Conclusion Certain ethnic minority groups, deprived populations, large households and 'healthier' individuals were less likely to receive a vaccine, although higher refusal was only associated with ethnicity and deprivation but not larger households nor healthier individuals. Understanding these may inform tailored public health messaging to different communities for equitable implementation of vaccination programmes.

Abstract Background Studies have reported an increased risk of mortality among people prescribed mirtazapine compared to other antidepressants. The study aimed to compare all-cause and cause-specific mortality between adults prescribed mirtazapine or other second-line antidepressants. Methods This cohort study used English primary care electronic medical records, hospital admission records, and mortality data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), for the period 01 January 2005 to 30 November 2018. It included people aged 18–99 years with depression first prescribed a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) and then prescribed mirtazapine (5081), a different SSRI (15,032), amitriptyline (3905), or venlafaxine (1580). Follow-up was from starting to stopping the second antidepressant, with a 6-month wash-out window, censoring at the end of CPRD follow-up or 30 November 2018. Age-sex standardised rates of all-cause mortality and death due to circulatory system disease, cancer, or respiratory system disease were calculated. Survival analyses were performed, accounting for baseline characteristics using inverse probability of treatment weighting. Results The cohort contained 25,598 people (median age 41 years). The mirtazapine group had the highest standardised mortality rate, with an additional 7.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.9–9.7) deaths/1000 person-years compared to the SSRI group. Within 2 years of follow-up, the risk of all-cause mortality was statistically significantly higher in the mirtazapine group than in the SSRI group (weighted hazard ratio (HR) 1.62, 95% CI 1.28–2.06). No significant difference was found between the mirtazapine group and the amitriptyline (HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.85–1.63) or venlafaxine (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.60–2.05) groups. After 2 years, the risk was significantly higher in the mirtazapine group compared to the SSRI (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.04–2.19), amitriptyline (HR 2.59, 95% CI 1.38–4.86), and venlafaxine (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.02–5.44) groups. The risks of death due to cancer (HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.06–2.85) and respiratory system disease (HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.07–2.77) were significantly higher in the mirtazapine than in the SSRI group. Conclusions Mortality was higher in people prescribed mirtazapine than people prescribed a second SSRI, possibly reflecting residual differences in other risk factors between the groups. Identifying these potential health risks when prescribing mirtazapine may help reduce the risk of mortality.

Abstract Background The Helicobacter Eradication Aspirin Trial (HEAT) is a multicentre, double blind, randomised controlled trial investigating whether Helicobacter (H.) pylori eradication reduces hospitalisation for peptic ulcer bleeding. Recruited participants were aged 60 and over and taking aspirin (≤325 mg daily) for at least four months prior to consent. Based on results of a pilot study, a sample size calculation predicted 6600 H. pylori-positive randomised participants would be required, from 33,000 volunteers, recruited from 170,000 invited patients. Methodology was therefore designed for recruitment of large numbers of patients from primary care using a novel electronic search tool, automated mail-out and electronic follow-up. Recruitment started in 2012 and completed in 2017. Methods All participants were recruited from GP practices, with assistance from the UK Clinical Research Network (UKCRN). H. pylori-positive participants were randomised to one week of eradication treatment or placebo. Recruitment was managed using a bespoke web-based database that communicated directly with a programmed search tool downloaded at participating practices. The primary endpoint is hospitalisation due to peptic ulcer bleeding. The trial will end when 87 adjudicated events have occurred, identified from searches of GP databases, review of secondary care admission data and mortality data, and reported events from randomised participants and GPs. Results HEAT has recruited participants from 1208 GP practices across the UK. Of the 188,875 invitation letters sent, 38,771 returned expressions of interest. Of these, 30,166 patients were consented to the trial, of whom 5355 H. pylori-positive participants (17.8% of those consented) were randomised. Mean age at consent was 73.1 ± 6.9 (SD) years and 72.2% of participants were male. Of the randomised (H. pylori-positive) participants, 531 have died (as of 17 Sep 2020); none of the deaths was due to trial treatment. Conclusion The HEAT trial methodology has demonstrated that recruitment of large numbers of patients from primary care is attainable, with the assistance of the UKCRN, and could be applied to other clinical outcomes studies. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov ; registration number NCT01506986 . Registered on 10 Jan 2012.

Objectives To explore associations between COVID-19 vaccination and admission to critical care with COVID-19 in England, by age group, dose, and over time. Approach We conducted a population cohort study by linking the Case Mix Programme national clinical audit of adult intensive care to the National Immunisation Management System, combined with population denominators from the Office for National Statistics. We compared patient characteristics and estimated rates of critical care admission by vaccination status and age group and explored variation in admission rates and relative protection over time. Finally, we used quantitative bias analysis to explore sensitivity to potential linkage error. Results Between 1 May and 15 December 2021 (England’s Delta wave), 11,431 patients were admitted to adult critical care units in England with COVID-19, of whom 10,141 were included in the cohort. Vaccinated patients were older, with higher levels of severe comorbidity and immunocompromise. Unvaccinated patients were greatly overrepresented, with people who had received two or more doses being at least 92% less likely to be admitted compared with those who were unvaccinated, for all ages, once the second dose had been rolled out. Those aged 50 years or older who had received a booster/third dose were 98-99% less likely to be admitted compared with unvaccinated. Our analysis was robust to linkage error, but closely related analyses could have been exquisitely sensitive to missed links. Conclusion Our findings are consistent with a high degree of vaccine-acquired protection against critical care admission, with little waning in the first 6-9 months for those aged under 70. While our analysis was robust to linkage error, significant care is warranted with related analyses of linked vaccination and outcome databases.

Abstract Background Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) is widely used and has proven benefits for women with menopausal symptoms. An increasing number of women with cancer experience menopausal symptoms but the safety of HRT use in women with cancer is unclear. There are particular concerns that HRT could accelerate cancer progression in women with cancer, and also that HRT could increase the risk of cardiovascular disease in such women. Therefore, our primary aim is to determine whether HRT use alters the risk of cancer-specific mortality in women with a range of common cancers. Our secondary objectives are to investigate whether HRT alters the risk of second cancers, cardiovascular disease, venous thromboembolism and all-cause mortality. Methods The study will utilise independent population-based data from Wales using the SAIL databank and Scotland based upon the national Prescribing Information System. The study will include women newly diagnosed with common cancers from 2000 to 2016, identified from cancer registries. Women with breast cancers will be excluded. HRT will be ascertained using electronic prescribing in Wales or dispensing records in Scotland. The primary outcome will be time to cancer-specific mortality from national mortality records. Time-dependent cox regression models will be used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for cancer specific death in HRT users compared with non-users after cancer diagnosis after adjusting for relevant confounders, stratified by cancer site. Analysis will be repeated investigating the impact of HRT use immediately before cancer diagnosis. Secondary analyses will be conducted on the risk of second cancers, cardiovascular disease, venous thromboembolism and all-cause mortality. Analyses will be conducted within each cohort and pooled across cohorts. Discussion Our study will provide evidence to inform guidance given to women diagnosed with cancer on the safety of HRT use and/or guide modifications to clinical practice.

Introduction Osteoarthritis (OA) is one of the leading chronic conditions in the older population. People with OA are more likely to have one or more other chronic conditions than those without. However, the temporal associations, clusters of the comorbidities, role of analgesics and the causality and variation between populations are yet to be investigated. This paper describes the protocol of a multinational study in four European countries (UK, Netherlands, Sweden and Spain) exploring comorbidities in people with OA.Methods and analysis This multinational study will investigate (1) the temporal associations of 61 identified comorbidities with OA, (2) the clusters and trajectories of comorbidities in people with OA, (3) the role of analgesics on incidence of comorbidities in people with OA, (4) the potential biomarkers and causality between OA and the comorbidities, and (5) variations between countries.A combined case–control and cohort study will be conducted to find the temporal association of OA with the comorbidities using the national or regional health databases. Latent class analysis will be performed to identify the clusters at baseline and joint latent class analysis will be used to examine trajectories during the follow-up. A cohort study will be undertaken to evaluate the role of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), opioids and paracetamol on the incidence of comorbidities. Mendelian randomisation will be performed to investigate the potential biomarkers for causality between OA and the comorbidities using the UK Biobank and the Rotterdam Study databases. Finally, a meta-analyses will be used to examine the variations and pool the results from different countries.Ethics and dissemination Research ethics was obtained according to each database requirement. Results will be disseminated through the FOREUM website, scientific meetings, publications and in partnership with patient organisations.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound consequences for population mental health. However, it is less clear for whom these effects are sustained. Aims To investigate the prevalence, incidence, prognosis and risk factors for symptoms of depression and anxiety in a UK cohort over three distinct periods in the pandemic in 2020. Method An online survey was completed by a UK community cohort at three points (n = 3097 at baseline, n = 878 completed all surveys): April (baseline), July to September (time point 2) and November to December (time point 3). Participants completed validated measures of depression and anxiety on each occasion, and we prospectively explored the role of sociodemographic and psychological factors (loneliness, positive mood and perceived risk of and worry about COVID-19) as risk factors. Results Depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 means: baseline, 7.69; time point 2, 5.53; time point 3, 6.06) and anxiety scores (Generalised Anxiety Disorder-7 means: baseline, 6.59; time point 2, 4.60; time point 3, 4.98) were considerably greater than pre-pandemic population norms at all time points. Women reported greater depression and anxiety symptoms than men. Younger age, history of mental health disorder, more COVID-19-related negative life events, greater loneliness and lower positive mood at baseline were all significant predictors of poorer mental health at time point 3. Conclusions The negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health has persisted to some degree. Younger people and individuals with prior mental health disorders are at greatest risk. Easing of restrictions and resumption of social interaction could mitigate the risk factors of loneliness and positive mood.

Abstract Background Antidepressants may be used to manage a number of conditions in children and young people including depression, anxiety, and obsessive-compulsive disorder. UK guidelines for the treatment of depression in children and young people recommend that antidepressants should only be initiated following assessment and diagnosis by a child and adolescent psychiatrist. The aim of this study was to summarise visits to mental health specialists and indications recorded around the time of antidepressant initiation in children and young people in UK primary care. Methods The study used linked English primary care electronic health records and Hospital Episode Statistics secondary care data. The study included 5–17-year-olds first prescribed antidepressants between January 2006 and December 2017. Records of visits to paediatric or psychiatric specialists and potential indications (from a pre-specified list) were extracted. Events were counted if recorded less than 12 months before or 6 months after the first antidepressant prescription. Results were stratified by first antidepressant type (all, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), tricyclic and related antidepressants) and by age group (5–11 years, 12–17 years). Results In total, 33,031 5–17-year-olds were included. Of these, 12,149 (37%) had a record of visiting a paediatrician or a psychiatric specialist in the specified time window. The majority of recorded visits (7154, 22%) were to paediatricians. Of those prescribed SSRIs, 5463/22,130 (25%) had a record of visiting a child and adolescent psychiatrist. Overall, 17,972 (54%) patients had a record of at least one of the pre-specified indications. Depression was the most frequently recorded indication (12,501, 38%), followed by anxiety (4155, 13%). Conclusions The results suggest many children and young people are being prescribed antidepressants without the recommended involvement of a relevant specialist. These findings may justify both greater training for GPs in child and adolescent mental health and greater access to specialist care and non-pharmacological treatments. Further research is needed to explore factors that influence how and why GPs prescribe antidepressants to children and young people and the real-world practice barriers to adherence to clinical guidelines.

Introduction Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) can help women experiencing menopausal symptoms, but usage has declined due to uncertainty around risks of cancer and some cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Moreover, improved cancer survival rates mean that more women who survive cancer go on to experience menopausal symptoms. Understanding these relationships is important so that women and their clinicians can make informed decisions around the risks and benefits of HRT. This study’s primary aim is to determine the association between HRT use after cancer diagnosis and the risk of cancer-specific mortality. The secondary aims are to investigate the risks of HRT on subsequent cancer, all-cause mortality and CVD.Methods and analysis We will conduct a population-based longitudinal cohort study of 18–79 year-old women diagnosed with cancer between 1998 and 2020, using the QResearch database. The main exposure is HRT use, categorised based on compound, dose and route of administration, and modelled as a time-varying covariate. Analysis of HRT use precancer and postcancer diagnosis will be conducted separately. The primary outcome is cancer-specific mortality, which will be stratified by cancer site. Secondary outcomes include subsequent cancer diagnosis, CVD (including venous thrombo-embolism) and all-cause mortality. Adjustment will be made for key confounders such as age, body mass index, ethnicity, deprivation index, comorbidities, and cancer grade, stage and treatment. Statistical analysis will include descriptive statistics and Cox proportional hazards models to calculate HRs and 95% CIs.Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval for this project was obtained from the QResearch Scientific Committee (Ref: OX24, project title ‘Use of hormone replacement therapy and survival from cancer’). This project has been, and will continue to be, supported by patient and public involvement panels. We intend to the submit the findings for peer-reviewed publication in an academic journal and disseminate them to the public through Cancer Research UK.

Summary: Background: Public policy measures and clinical risk assessments relevant to COVID-19 need to be aided by risk prediction models that are rigorously developed and validated. We aimed to externally validate a risk prediction algorithm (QCovid) to estimate mortality outcomes from COVID-19 in adults in England. Methods: We did a population-based cohort study using the UK Office for National Statistics Public Health Linked Data Asset, a cohort of individuals aged 19–100 years, based on the 2011 census and linked to Hospital Episode Statistics, the General Practice Extraction Service data for pandemic planning and research, and radiotherapy and systemic chemotherapy records. The primary outcome was time to COVID-19 death, defined as confirmed or suspected COVID-19 death as per death certification. Two periods were used: (1) Jan 24 to April 30, 2020, and (2) May 1 to July 28, 2020. We assessed the performance of the QCovid algorithms using measures of discrimination and calibration. Using predicted 90-day risk of COVID-19 death, we calculated r2 values, Brier scores, and measures of discrimination and calibration with corresponding 95% CIs over the two time periods. Findings: We included 34 897 648 adults aged 19–100 years resident in England. 26 985 (0·08%) COVID-19 deaths occurred during the first period and 13 177 (0·04%) during the second. The algorithms had good discrimination and calibration in both periods. In the first period, they explained 77·1% (95% CI 76·9–77·4) of the variation in time to death in men and 76·3% (76·0–76·6) in women. The D statistic was 3·761 (3·732–3·789) for men and 3·671 (3·640–3·702) for women and Harrell's C was 0·935 (0·933–0·937) for men and 0·945 (0·943–0·947) for women. Similar results were obtained for the second time period. In the top 5% of patients with the highest predicted risks of death, the sensitivity for identifying deaths in the first period was 65·94% for men and 71·67% for women. Interpretation: The QCovid population-based risk algorithm performed well, showing high levels of discrimination for COVID-19 deaths in men and women for both time periods. QCovid has the potential to be dynamically updated as the pandemic evolves and, therefore, has potential use in guiding national policy. Funding: UK National Institute for Health Research.

Abstract Evidence suggests that the prescription of bladder anticholinergics is increasing. Recent studies have accentuated concerns about whether certain prescribed medications could increase risk of dementia, including anticholinergic drugs, and specifically anticholinergics used for bladder symptoms. Nevertheless, it can be difficult to draw together the evidence to review the case for possible causation. Recognising this issue in 1965, Bradford‐Hill set out nine criteria to help assess whether evidence of a causal relationship could be inferred between a presumed cause and an observed effect. In this commentary, we explore the extent to which associations between anticholinergics and dementia satisfy the Bradford‐Hill criteria and examine the potential implications. First, we look at studies that have examined the relationship between anticholinergic drugs with urological properties (bladder drugs) and the onset of dementia, and then present those studies which specifically focus on the cognitive effects of bladder drugs that affect muscarinic receptors in the brain versus the bladder on older people along with suggestions for future research. We also discuss the risks and benefits of these drugs for treating overactive bladder. If it can be shown that certain medications carry a specific risk of dementia, it is possible that initiatives to change prescribing could become a key tool in reducing the risk of dementia and may be easier to implement than some lifestyle changes.

BackgroundThe use of antidepressants in children and adolescents remains controversial. We examined trends over time and variation in antidepressant prescribing in children and young people in England and whether the drugs prescribed reflected UK licensing and guidelines.Methods and findingsQResearch is a primary care database containing anonymised healthcare records of over 32 million patients from more than 1,500 general practices across the UK. All eligible children and young people aged 5-17 years in 1998-2017 from QResearch were included. Incidence and prevalence rates of antidepressant prescriptions in each year were calculated overall, for 4 antidepressant classes (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors [SSRIs], tricyclic and related antidepressants [TCAs], serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors [SNRIs], and other antidepressants), and for individual drugs. Adjusted trends over time and differences by social deprivation, region, and ethnicity were examined using Poisson regression, taking clustering within general practitioner (GP) practices into account using multilevel modelling. Of the 4.3 million children and young people in the cohort, 49,434 (1.1%) were prescribed antidepressants for the first time during 20 million years of follow-up. Males made up 52.0% of the cohorts, but only 34.1% of those who were first prescribed an antidepressant in the study period. The largest proportion of the cohort was from London (24.4%), and whilst ethnicity information was missing for 39.5% of the cohort, of those with known ethnicity, 75.3% were White. Overall, SSRIs (62.6%) were the most commonly prescribed first antidepressant, followed by TCAs (35.7%). Incident antidepressant prescribing decreased in 5- to 11-year-olds from a peak of 0.9 in females and 1.6 in males in 1999 to less than 0.2 per 1,000 for both sexes in 2017, but incidence rates more than doubled in 12- to 17-year-olds between 2005 and 2017 to 9.7 (females) and 4.2 (males) per 1,000 person-years. The lowest prescription incidence rates were in London, and the highest were in the South East of England (excluding London) for all sex and age groups. Those living in more deprived areas were more likely to be prescribed antidepressants after adjusting for region. The strongest trend was seen in 12- to 17-year-old females (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 1.12, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.11-1.13, p < 0.001, per deprivation quintile increase). Prescribing rates were highest in White and lowest in Black adolescents (aIRR 0.32, 95% CI 0.29-0.36, p < 0.001 [females]; aIRR 0.32, 95% CI 0.27-0.38, p < 0.001 [males]). The 5 most commonly prescribed antidepressants were either licensed in the UK for use in children and young people (CYP) or included in national guidelines. Limitations of the study are that, because we did not have access to secondary care prescribing information, we may be underestimating the prevalence and misidentifying the first antidepressant prescription. We could not assess whether antidepressants were dispensed or taken.ConclusionsOur analysis provides evidence of a continuing rise of antidepressant prescribing in adolescents aged 12-17 years since 2005, driven by SSRI prescriptions, but a decrease in children aged 5-11 years. The variation in prescribing by deprivation, region, and ethnicity could represent inequities. Future research should examine whether prescribing trends and variation are due to true differences in need and risk factors, access to diagnosis or treatment, prescribing behaviour, or young people's help-seeking behaviour.

Abstract Background Antidepressants are one of the most commonly prescribed medications in young and middle-aged adults, but there is relatively little information on their safety across a range of adverse outcomes in this age group. This study aimed to assess associations between antidepressant treatment and several adverse outcomes in people aged 20–64 years diagnosed with depression. Methods We conducted a cohort study in 238,963 patients aged 20–64 years registered with practices across the UK contributing to the QResearch primary care database. Only patients with a first diagnosis of depression were included. Outcomes were falls, fractures, upper gastrointestinal bleed, road traffic accidents, adverse drug reactions and all-cause mortality recorded during follow-up. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios associated with antidepressant exposure adjusting for potential confounding variables. Results During 5 years of follow-up, 4651 patients had experienced a fall, 4796 had fractures, 1066 had upper gastrointestinal bleeds, 3690 had road traffic accidents, 1058 had experienced adverse drug reactions, and 3181 patients died. Fracture rates were significantly increased for selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (adjusted hazard ratio 1.30, 95% CI 1.21–1.39) and other antidepressants (1.28, 1.11–1.48) compared with periods when antidepressants were not used. All antidepressant drug classes were associated with significantly increased rates of falls. Rates of adverse drug reactions were significantly higher for tricyclic and related antidepressants (1.54, 1.25–1.88) and other antidepressants (1.61, 1.22–2.12) compared with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors. Trazodone was associated with a significantly increased risk of upper gastrointestinal bleed. All-cause mortality rates were significantly higher for tricyclic and related antidepressants (1.39, 1.22–1.59) and other antidepressants (1.26, 1.08–1.47) than for selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors over 5 years but not 1 year, and were significantly reduced after 85 or more days of treatment with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors. Mirtazapine was associated with significantly increased mortality rates over 1 and 5 years of follow-up. Conclusions Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors had higher rates of fracture than tricyclic and related antidepressants but lower mortality and adverse drug reaction rates than the other antidepressant drug classes. The association between mirtazapine and increased mortality merits further investigation. These risks should be carefully considered and balanced against potential benefits for individual patients when the decision to prescribe an antidepressant is made.

Background: Clinical trials measuring the effect of an intervention on clinical outcomes are more influential than those investigating surrogate measures but are costly. We developed methods to reduce costs substantially by using existing data in primary care systems, to ask whether Helicobacter pylori eradication would reduce the incidence of hospitalisation for ulcer bleeding in aspirin users. Methods: The Helicobacter Eradication Aspirin Trial (HEAT) is a National Institute of Health Research-funded, double-blind placebo controlled randomised trial of the effects of H. pylori eradication on subsequent ulcer bleeding in infected individuals taking aspirin daily, conducted in practices across the whole of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. A bespoke web-based trial management system developed for the trial (and housed within the secure NHS Data Network) communicates directly with the HEAT Toolkit software downloaded at participating practices, which issues queries searching entry criteria (≥60 years, on chronic aspirin ≤325 mg daily, not on anti-ulcer therapy or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs) for GP review of eligibility. Trial participation is invited using a highly secure automated online mail management system. Interested patients are seen once for consent and breath testing. Those with a positive test are randomised to eradication treatment (lansoprazole, clarithromycin, metronidazole) or placebo, with drug sent by post. Events are tracked by upload of accumulating information in the GP database, patient contact, review of National Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics data. Results: HEAT is the largest Clinical Research Network-supported drug trial, with 115,660 invitation letters sent from 850 practices, 22,922 volunteers, and 3038 H. pylori positive patients randomised to active or placebo treatment after 2.5 years of recruitment. 178 practices have performed their first follow-up data search to identify 21 potential endpoints to date. Discussion: HEAT is important medically, because aspirin is so widely used, and methodologically, as a successful trial would show that large-scale studies of important clinical outcomes can be conducted at a fraction of the cost of those conducted by industry, which in turn will help to ensure that trials of primarily medical rather than commercial interest can be conducted successfully in the UK.

Background: Unintentional injuries among 0- to 4-year-olds are a major public health problem incurring substantial NHS, individual and societal costs. However, evidence on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of preventative interventions is lacking. Aim: To increase the evidence base for thermal injury, falls and poisoning prevention for the under-fives. Methods: Six work streams comprising five multicentre case–control studies assessing risk and protective factors, a study measuring quality of life and injury costs, national surveys of children’s centres, interviews with children’s centre staff and parents, a systematic review of barriers to, and facilitators of, prevention and systematic overviews, meta-analyses and decision analyses of home safety interventions. Evidence from these studies informed the design of an injury prevention briefing (IPB) for children’s centres for preventing fire-related injuries and implementation support (training and facilitation). This was evaluated by a three-arm cluster randomised controlled trial comparing IPB and support (IPB+), IPB only (no support) and usual care. The primary outcome was parent-reported possession of a fire escape plan. Evidence from all work streams subsequently informed the design of an IPB for preventing thermal injuries, falls and poisoning. Results: Modifiable risk factors for falls, poisoning and scalds were found. Most injured children and their families incurred small to moderate health-care and non-health-care costs, with a few incurring more substantial costs. Meta-analyses and decision analyses found that home safety interventions increased the use of smoke alarms and stair gates, promoted safe hot tap water temperatures, fire escape planning and storage of medicines and household products, and reduced baby walker use. Generally, more intensive interventions were the most effective, but these were not always the most cost-effective interventions. Children’s centre and parental barriers to, and facilitators of, injury prevention were identified. Children’s centres were interested in preventing injuries, and believed that they could prevent them, but few had an evidence-based strategic approach and they needed support to develop this. The IPB was implemented by children’s centres in both intervention arms, with greater implementation in the IPB+ arm. Compared with usual care, more IPB+ arm families received advice on key safety messages, and more families in each intervention arm attended fire safety sessions. The intervention did not increase the prevalence of fire escape plans [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) IPB only vs. usual care 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58 to 1.49; AOR IPB+ vs. usual care 1.41, 95% CI 0.91 to 2.20] but did increase the proportion of families reporting more fire escape behaviours (AOR IPB only vs. usual care 2.56, 95% CI 1.38 to 4.76; AOR IPB+ vs. usual care 1.78, 95% CI 1.01 to 3.15). IPB-only families were less likely to report match play by children (AOR 0.27, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.94) and reported more bedtime fire safety routines (AOR for a 1-unit increase in the number of routines 1.59, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.31) than usual-care families. The IPB-only intervention was less costly and marginally more effective than usual care. The IPB+ intervention was more costly and marginally more effective than usual care. Limitations: Our case–control studies demonstrate associations between modifiable risk factors and injuries but not causality. Some injury cost estimates are imprecise because of small numbers. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were limited by the quality of the included studies, the small numbers of studies reporting outcomes and significant heterogeneity, partly explained by differences in interventions. Network meta-analysis (NMA) categorised interventions more finely, but some variation remained. Decision analyses are likely to underestimate cost-effectiveness for a number of reasons. IPB implementation varied between children’s centres. Greater implementation may have resulted in changes in more fire safety behaviours. Conclusions: Our studies provide new evidence about the effectiveness of, as well as economic evaluation of, home safety interventions. Evidence-based resources for preventing thermal injuries, falls and scalds were developed. Providing such resources to children’s centres increases their injury prevention activity and some parental safety behaviours. Future work: Further randomised controlled trials, meta-analyses and NMAs are needed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of home safety interventions. Further work is required to measure NHS, family and societal costs and utility decrements for childhood home injuries and to evaluate complex multicomponent interventions such as home safety schemes using a single analytical model. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN65067450 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01452191. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 5, No. 14. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

BACKGROUND:Many developed countries have high mortality rates for fire-related deaths in children aged 0-14 years with steep social gradients. Evidence-based interventions to promote fire safety practices exist, but the impact of implementing a range of these interventions in children's services has not been assessed. We developed an Injury Prevention Briefing (IPB), which brought together evidence about effective fire safety interventions and good practice in delivering interventions; plus training and facilitation to support its use and evaluated its implementation. METHODS:We conducted a cluster randomised controlled trial, with integrated qualitative and cost-effectiveness nested studies, across four study sites in England involving children's centres in disadvantaged areas; participants were staff and families attending those centres. Centres were stratified by study site and randomised within strata to one of three arms: IPB plus facilitation (IPB+), IPB only, usual care. IPB+ centres received initial training and facilitation at months 1, 3, and 8. Baseline data from children's centres were collected between August 2011 and January 2012 and follow-up data were collected between June 2012 and June 2013. Parent baseline data were collected between January 2012 and May 2012 and follow-up data between May 2013 and September 2013. Data comprised baseline and 12 month parent- and staff-completed questionnaires, facilitation contact data, activity logs and staff interviews. The primary outcome was whether families had a plan for escaping from a house fire. Treatment arms were compared using multilevel models to account for clustering by children's centre. RESULTS:1112 parents at 36 children's centres participated. There was no significant effect of the intervention on families' possession of plans for escaping from a house fire (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) IPB only vs. usual care: 0.93, 95%CI 0.58, 1.49; AOR IPB+ vs. usual care 1.41, 95%CI 0.91, 2.20). However, significantly more families in the intervention arms reported more behaviours for escaping from house fires (AOR IPB only vs. usual care: 2.56, 95%CI 01.38, 4.76; AOR IPB+ vs. usual care 1.78, 95%CI 1.01, 3.15). CONCLUSION:Our study demonstrated that children's centres can deliver an injury prevention intervention to families in disadvantaged communities and achieve changes in home safety behaviours.

Rates of acquisition and clearance of cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) during a 3-year period in women 51 years of age were compared with rates in younger women to provide data on cervical screening for women >50 years of age. Paired, cytologically negative, archived cervical smears taken 3 years apart from 710 women in Nottingham, United Kingdom, were retrieved and tested for HPV infection with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with GP5+/6+ primers. Seventy-one (21.3%) of 333 women 51 years of age who were HPV negative at baseline were positive 3 years later. This percentage was higher than the corresponding acquisition rates among women 21 (15.2%), 31 (14.1%), and 41 (13.3%) years of age, although these differences were not significant. This retrospective study shows that HPV-negative women >50 years of age can acquire HPV and, therefore, require cervical screening.

To determine whether advocacy targeted at local politicians leads to action to reduce the risk of pedestrian injury in deprived areas.Cluster randomised controlled trial.239 electoral wards in 57 local authorities in England and Wales.617 elected local politicians.Intervention group politicians were provided with tailored information packs, including maps of casualty sites, numbers injured and a synopsis of effective interventions.25-30 months post intervention, primary outcomes included: electoral ward level: percentage of road traffic calmed; proportion with new interventions; school level: percentage with 20 mph zones, Safe Routes to School, pedestrian training or road safety education; politician level: percentage lobbying for safety measures. Secondary outcomes included politicians' interest and involvement in injury prevention, and facilitators and barriers to implementation.PRIMARY OUTCOMES DID NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFER: % difference in traffic calming (0.07, 95%CI: -0.07 to 0.20); proportion of schools with 20 mph zones (RR 1.47, 95%CI: 0.93 to 2.32), Safe Routes to School (RR 1.34, 95%CI: 0.83 to 2.17), pedestrian training (RR 1.23, 95%CI: 0.95 to 1.61) or other safety education (RR 1.16, 95%CI: 0.97 to 1.39). Intervention group politicians reported greater interest in child injury prevention (RR 1.09, 95%CI 1.03 to 1.16), belief in potential to help prevent injuries (RR 1.36, 95%CI 1.16 to 1.61), particularly pedestrian safety (RR 1.55, 95%CI 1.19 to 2.03). 63% of intervention politicians reported supporting new pedestrian safety schemes. The majority found the advocacy information surprising, interesting, effectively presented, and could identify suitable local interventions.This study demonstrates the feasibility of an innovative approach to translational public health by targeting local politicians in a randomised controlled trial. The intervention package was positively viewed and raised interest but changes in interventions were not statistically significance. Longer term supported advocacy may be needed.Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN91381117.

Current methods of measuring the population burden of injuries rely on many assumptions and limited data available to the global burden of diseases (GBD) studies. The aim of this study was to compare the population burden of injuries using different approaches from the UK Burden of Injury (UKBOI) and GBD studies.The UKBOI was a prospective cohort of 1,517 injured individuals that collected patient-reported outcomes. Extrapolated outcome data were combined with multiple sources of morbidity and mortality data to derive population metrics of the burden of injury in the UK. Participants were injured patients recruited from hospitals in four UK cities and towns: Swansea, Nottingham, Bristol, and Guildford, between September 2005 and April 2007. Patient-reported changes in quality of life using the EQ-5D at baseline, 1, 4, and 12 months after injury provided disability weights used to calculate the years lived with disability (YLDs) component of disability adjusted life years (DALYs). DALYs were calculated for the UK and extrapolated to global estimates using both UKBOI and GBD disability weights. Estimated numbers (and rates per 100,000) for UK population extrapolations were 750,999 (1,240) for hospital admissions, 7,982,947 (13,339) for emergency department (ED) attendances, and 22,185 (36.8) for injury-related deaths in 2005. Nonadmitted ED-treated injuries accounted for 67% of YLDs. Estimates for UK DALYs amounted to 1,771,486 (82% due to YLDs), compared with 669,822 (52% due to YLDs) using the GBD approach. Extrapolating patient-derived disability weights to GBD estimates would increase injury-related DALYs 2.6-fold.The use of disability weights derived from patient experiences combined with additional morbidity data on ED-treated patients and inpatients suggests that the absolute burden of injury is higher than previously estimated. These findings have substantial implications for improving measurement of the national and global burden of injury.