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The JWST Early Release Observations (ERO) included a NIRISS/SOSS (0.6–2.8  μ m) transit of the ∼ 850 K Saturn-mass exoplanet HAT-P-18 b. Initial analysis of these data reported detections of water, escaping helium and haze. However, active K dwarfs like HAT-P-18 possess surface heterogeneities – star-spots and faculae – that can complicate the interpretation of transmission spectra, and indeed, a spot-crossing event is present in HAT-P-18 b's NIRISS/SOSS light curves. Here, we present an extensive reanalysis and interpretation of the JWST ERO transmission spectrum of HAT-P-18 b, as well as HST /WFC3 and Spitzer /IRAC transit observations. We detect H2O (12.5σ), CO2 (7.3σ), a cloud deck (7.4σ), and unocculted star-spots (5.8σ), alongside hints of Na (2.7σ). We do not detect the previously reported CH4 (log  CH4 < −6 to 2σ). We obtain excellent agreement between three independent retrieval codes, which find a sub-solar H2O abundance (log  H2O ≈ −4.4 ± 0.3). However, the inferred CO2 abundance (log  CO2 ≈ −4.8 ± 0.4) is significantly super-solar and requires further investigation into its origin. We also introduce new stellar heterogeneity considerations by fitting for the active regions' surface gravities – a proxy for the effects of magnetic pressure. Finally, we compare our JWST inferences to those from HST /WFC3 and Spitzer /IRAC. Our results highlight the exceptional promise of simultaneous planetary atmosphere and stellar heterogeneity constraints in the era of JWST and demonstrate that JWST transmission spectra may warrant more complex treatments of the transit light source effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth-like planets orbiting M-dwarf stars, M-Earths, are currently the best targets to search for signatures of life. Life as we know it requires water. The habitability of M-Earths is jeopardized by water loss to space: high flux from young M-dwarf stars can drive the loss of 3–20 Earth oceans from otherwise habitable planets. We develop a 0-D box model for Earth-mass terrestrial exoplanets, orbiting within the habitable zone, which tracks water loss to space and exchange between reservoirs during an early surface magma ocean phase and the longer deep-water cycling phase. A key feature is the duration of the surface magma ocean, assumed concurrent with the runaway greenhouse. This time-scale can discriminate between desiccated planets, planets with desiccated mantles but substantial surface water, and planets with significant water sequestered in the mantle. A longer-lived surface magma ocean helps M-Earths retain water: dissolution of water in the magma provides a barrier against significant loss to space during the earliest, most active stage of the host M-dwarf, depending on the water saturation limit of the magma. Although a short-lived basal magma ocean can be beneficial to surface habitability, a long-lived basal magma ocean may sequester significant water in the mantle at the detriment of surface habitability. We find that magma oceans and deep-water cycling can maintain or recover habitable surface conditions on Earth-like planets at the inner edge of the habitable zone around late M-dwarf stars – these planets would otherwise be desiccated if they form with less than ∼10 terrestrial oceans of water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

NASA is engaged in planning for a Habitable Worlds Observatory (HabWorlds ), a coronagraphic space mission to detect rocky planets in habitable zones and establish their habitability. Surface liquid water is central to the definition of planetary habitability. Photometric and polarimetric phase curves of starlight reflected by an exoplanet can reveal ocean glint, rainbows, and other phenomena caused by scattering by clouds or atmospheric gas. Direct imaging missions are optimized for planets near quadrature, but HabWorlds ' coronagraph may obscure the phase angles where such optical features are strongest. The range of accessible phase angles for a given exoplanet will depend on the planet's orbital inclination and/or the coronagraph's inner working angle (IWA). We use a recently created catalog relevant to HabWorlds of 164 stars to estimate the number of exo-Earths that could be searched for ocean glint, rainbows, and polarization effects due to Rayleigh scattering. We find that the polarimetric Rayleigh scattering peak is accessible in most of the exo-Earth planetary systems. The rainbow due to water clouds at phase angles of ∼20○ − 60○ would be accessible with HabWorlds  for a planet with an Earth equivalent instellation in ∼46 systems, while the ocean glint signature at phase angles of ∼130○ − 170○ would be accessible in ∼16 systems, assuming an IWA = 62 mas (3λ/ D). Improving the IWA = 41 mas (2λ/ D) increases accessibility to rainbows and glints by factors of approximately 2 and 3, respectively. By observing these scattering features, HabWorlds could detect a surface ocean and water cycle, key indicators of habitability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precise measurements of chemical abundances in planetary atmospheres are necessary to constrain the formation histories of exoplanets. A recent study of WASP-127 b, a close-in puffy sub-Saturn orbiting its solar-type host star in 4.2 d, using Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and Spitzer revealed a feature-rich transmission spectrum with strong excess absorption at 4.5 μm. However, the limited spectral resolution and coverage of these instruments could not distinguish between CO and/or CO2 absorption causing this signal, with both low and high C/O ratio scenarios being possible. Here we present near-infrared (0.9–2.5 μm) transit observations of WASP-127 b using the high-resolution SPIRou spectrograph, with the goal to disentangle CO from CO2 through the 2.3 μm CO band. With SPIRou, we detect H2O at a t -test significance of 5.3 σ and observe a tentative (3σ) signal consistent with OH absorption. From a joint SPIRou + HST + Spitzer retrieval analysis, we rule out a CO-rich scenario by placing an upper limit on the CO abundance of log10[CO] <−4.0, and estimate a log10[CO2] of −3.7 |$^{+0.8}_{-0.6}$| , which is the level needed to match the excess absorption seen at 4.5 μm. We also set abundance constraints on other major C-, O-, and N-bearing molecules, with our results favouring low C/O (0.10 |$^{+0.10}_{-0.06}$|), disequilibrium chemistry scenarios. We further discuss the implications of our results in the context of planet formation. Additional observations at high and low resolution will be needed to confirm these results and better our understanding of this unusual world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will provide an opportunity to investigate the atmospheres of potentially habitable planets. Aerosols significantly mute molecular features in transit spectra because they prevent light from probing the deeper layers of the atmosphere. Earth occasionally has stratospheric/high tropospheric clouds at 15–20 km that could substantially limit the observable depth of the underlying atmosphere. We use solar occultations of Earth's atmosphere to create synthetic JWST transit spectra of Earth analogues orbiting dwarf stars. Unlike previous investigations, we consider both clear and cloudy sightlines from the SCISAT satellite. We find that the maximum difference in effective thickness of the atmosphere between a clear and globally cloudy atmosphere is 8.5 km at 2.28   |$\mu$| m, with a resolution of 0.02  |$\mu$| m. After incorporating the effects of refraction and Pandexo's noise modelling, we find that JWST would not be able to detect Earth-like stratospheric clouds if an exo-Earth was present in the TRAPPIST-1 system, as the cloud spectrum differs from the clear spectrum by a maximum of 10 ppm. These stratospheric clouds are also not robustly detected by TauREx when performing spectral retrieval for a cloudy TRAPPIST-1 planet. However, if an Earth-sized planet were to orbit in a white dwarf's habitable zone, then we predict that JWST 's NIRSpec would be able to detect its stratospheric clouds after only four transits. We conclude that stratospheric clouds would not impede JWST transit spectroscopy or the detection of biosignatures for Earth-like atmospheres. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Astronomers have discovered a handful of exoplanets with rocky bulk compositions but orbiting that orbit so close to their host star that the surface of the planet must be at least partially molten. It is expected that the dayside of such “lava planets” harbors a rock-vapor atmosphere that flows quickly toward the airless nightsideâ€"this partial atmosphere is critical to the interpretation of lava planet observations, but transports negligible heat toward the nightside. As a result, the surface temperature of the magma ocean may range from 3000 K near the substellar point down to 1500 K near the dayâ€"night terminator. We use simple models incorporating the thermodynamics and geochemistry of partial melt to predict the physical and chemical properties of the magma ocean as a function of the distance from the substellar point. Our principal findings are that: (1) the dayside magma ocean is much deeper than previously thought, probably extending down to the coreâ€"mantle boundary below the substellar point of an Earth-sized planet; (2) much of the dayside is only partially molten, leading to gradients in the surface chemistry of the magma ocean; and (3) the temperature at the base of the silicate mantle is as important as the surface temperature. In the most extreme cases, lava planet interiors could be cold enough such that thermal stratification below the substellar point is gravitationally stable. These findings have important implications for the dynamics of the magma ocean, as well as the composition and dynamics of the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lava planets have non-global, condensible atmospheres similar to icy bodies within the Solar system. Because they depend on interior dynamics, studying the atmospheres of lava planets can lead to understanding unique geological processes driven by their extreme environment. Models of lava planet atmospheres have thus far focused on either radiative transfer or hydrodynamics. In this study, we couple the two processes by introducing ultraviolet (UV) and infrared (IR) radiation to a turbulent boundary layer model. We also test the effect of different vertical temperature profiles on atmospheric dynamics. Results from the model show that UV radiation affects the atmosphere much more than IR. UV heating and cooling work together to produce a horizontally isothermal atmosphere away from the substellar point regardless of the vertical temperature profile. We also find that stronger temperature inversions induce stronger winds and hence cool the atmosphere. Our simulated transmission spectra of the bound atmosphere show a strong SiO feature in the UV that would be challenging to observe in the planet's transit spectrum due to the precision required. Our simulated emission spectra are more promising, with significant SiO spectral features at 4.5 and 9 |$\mu$| m that can be observed with the James Webb Space Telescope. Different vertical temperature profiles produce discernible dayside emission spectra, but not in the way one would expect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Author(s): Heather A. Knutson (corresponding author) [1]; David Charbonneau [1]; Lori E. Allen [1]; Jonathan J. Fortney [2, 3]; Eric Agol [4]; Nicolas B. Cowan [4]; Adam P. Showman [5]; [...]

Reflected light photometry of terrestrial exoplanets could reveal the presence of oceans and continents, hence placing direct constraints on the current and long-term habitability of these worlds. Inferring the albedo map of a planet from its observed light curve is challenging because different maps may yield indistinguishable light curves. This degeneracy is aggravated by changing clouds. It has previously been suggested that disc-integrated photometry spanning multiple days could be combined to obtain a cloud-free surface map of an exoplanet. We demonstrate this technique as part of a Bayesian retrieval by simultaneously fitting for the fixed surface map of a planet and the time-variable overlying clouds. We test this approach on synthetic data and then apply it to real disc-integrated observations of the Earth. We find that 8 d of continuous synthetic observations are sufficient to reconstruct a faithful low-resolution surface albedo map, without needing to make assumptions about cloud physics. For light curves with negligible photometric uncertainties, the minimal top-of-atmosphere albedo at a location is a good estimate of its surface albedo. When applied to observations from the Earth Polychromating Imaging Camera aboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory spacecraft, our approach removes only a small fraction of clouds. We attribute this difficulty to the full-phase geometry of observations combined with the short correlation length for Earth clouds. For exoplanets with Earth-like climatology, it may be hard to do much better than a cloud-averaged map. We surmise that cloud removal will be most successful for exoplanets imaged near quarter phase that harbour large cloud systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The field of exoplanet atmospheric characterization is trending towards comparative studies involving many planetary systems, and using Bayesian hierarchical modelling is a natural next step. Here we demonstrate two use cases. We first use hierarchical modelling to quantify variability in repeated observations by reanalysing a suite of 10 Spitzer secondary eclipse observations of the hot Jupiter XO-3 b. We compare three models: one where we fit 10 separate eclipse depths, one where we use a single eclipse depth for all 10 observations, and a hierarchical model. By comparing the widely applicable information criterion of each model, we show that the hierarchical model is preferred over the others. The hierarchical model yields less scatter across the suite of eclipse depths – and higher precision on the individual eclipse depths – than does fitting the observations separately. We find that the hierarchical eclipse depth uncertainty is larger than the uncertainties on the individual eclipse depths, which suggests either slight astrophysical variability or that single eclipse observations underestimate the true eclipse depth uncertainty. Finally, we fit a suite of published dayside brightness measurements for 37 planets using a hierarchical model of brightness temperature versus irradiation temperature. The hierarchical model gives tighter constraints on the individual brightness temperatures than the non-hierarchical model. Although we tested hierarchical modelling on Spitzer eclipse data of hot Jupiters, it is applicable to observations of smaller planets like hot Neptunes and super-Earths, as well as for photometric and spectroscopic transit or phase-curve observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermal phase variations of short-period planets indicate that they are not spherical cows: day-to-night temperature contrasts range from hundreds to thousands of degrees, rivaling their vertical temperature contrasts. Nonetheless, the emergent spectra of short-period planets have typically been fit using one-dimensional (1D) spectral retrieval codes that only account for vertical temperature gradients. The popularity of 1D spectral retrieval codes is easy to understand: they are robust and have a rich legacy in solar system atmospheric studies. Exoplanet researchers have recently introduced multidimensional retrieval schemes to interpret the spectra of short-period planets, but these codes are necessarily more complex and computationally expensive than their 1D counterparts. In this paper we present an alternative: phase-dependent spectral observations are inverted to produce longitudinally resolved spectra that can then be fit using standard 1D spectral retrieval codes. We test this scheme on the iconic phase-resolved spectra of WASP-43b and on simulated observations for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) using the open-source Pyrat Bay 1D spectral retrieval framework. Notably, we take the model complexity of the simulations one step further from previous studies by allowing for longitudinal variations in composition in addition to temperature. We show that performing 1D spectral retrieval on longitudinally resolved spectra is more accurate than applying 1D spectral retrieval codes to disk-integrated emission spectra, even though this is identical in terms of computational load. We find that for the extant Hubble and Spitzer observations of WASP-43b, the difference between the two approaches is negligible, but JWST phase measurements should be treated with longitudinally re solved spect ral retrieval (ReSpect). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have developed an open-source pipeline for the analysis of Spitzer /IRAC channel 1 and 2 time-series photometry, incorporating some of the most popular decorrelation methods. We applied this pipeline to new phase curve observations of ultra-hot Jupiters MASCARA-1b and KELT-16b, and we performed the first comprehensive reanalysis of 15 phase curves. We find that MASCARA-1b and KELT-16b have phase offsets of |$6^{+11}_{-11}~^{\circ }$| W and |$38^{+16}_{-15}~^{\circ }$| W, dayside temperatures of |$2952^{+100}_{-97}$|   and |$3070^{+160}_{-150}$|  K, and nightside temperatures of |$1300^{+340}_{-340}$| and |$1900^{+430}_{-440}$|  K, respectively. We confirm a strong correlation between dayside and irradiation temperatures with a shallower dependence for nightside temperature. We also find evidence that the normalized phase curve amplitude (peak-to-trough divided by eclipse depth) is correlated with stellar effective temperature. In addition, while our different models often retrieve similar parameters, significant differences occasionally arise between them, as well as between our preferred model and the literature values. Nevertheless, our preferred models are consistent with published phase offsets to within −8 ± 21 degrees (−1.6 ± 3.2 sigma), and normalized phase curve amplitudes are on average reproduced to within −0.01 ± 0.24 (−0.1 ± 1.6 sigma). Finally, we find that BLISS performs best in most cases, but not all; we therefore recommend future analyses consider numerous detector models to ensure an optimal fit and to assess model dependencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transit searches have uncovered Earth-size planets orbiting so close to their host star that their surface should be molten, so-called lava planets. We present idealized simulations of the atmosphere of lava planet K2-141b and calculate the return flow of material via circulation in the magma ocean. We then compare how pure Na, SiO, or SiO2 atmospheres would impact future observations. The more volatile Na atmosphere is thickest followed by SiO and SiO2, as expected. Despite its low vapour pressure, we find that a SiO2 atmosphere is easier to observe via transit spectroscopy due to its greater scale height near the day–night terminator and the planetary radial velocity and acceleration are very high, facilitating high dispersion spectroscopy. The special geometry that arises from very small orbits allows for a wide range of limb observations for K2-141b. After determining the magma ocean depth, we infer that the ocean circulation required for SiO steady-state flow is only 10−4 m s−1, while the equivalent return flow for Na is several orders of magnitude greater. This suggests that a steady-state Na atmosphere cannot be sustained and that the surface will evolve over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rotational modulations of emission spectra in brown dwarf and exoplanet atmospheres show that clouds are often distributed non-uniformly in these ultracool atmospheres. The spatial heterogeneity in cloud distribution demonstrates the impact of atmospheric dynamics on cloud formation and evolution. In this study, we update the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) time-series data analysis of the previously reported rotational modulations of WISEP J004701+680352—an unusually red late-L brown dwarf with a spectrum similar to that of the directly imaged planet HR 8799e. We construct a self-consistent spatially heterogeneous cloud model to explain the HST and the Spitzer time-series observations, as well as the time-averaged spectra of WISE 0047. In the heterogeneous cloud model, a cloud thickness variation of around one pressure scale height explains the wavelength dependence in the HST near-IR spectral variability. By including disequilibrium CO/CH4 chemistry, our models also reproduce the redder color of WISE 0047 compared to that of field brown dwarfs. We discuss the impact of vertical cloud structure on atmospheric profile and estimate the minimum eddy diffusivity coefficient for other objects with redder colors. Our data analysis and forward modeling results demonstrate that time-series spectrophotometry with a broad wavelength coverage is a powerful tool for constraining heterogeneous atmospheric structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water cycling between Earth's mantle and surface has previously been modelled and extrapolated to rocky exoplanets, but these studies neglected the host star. M-dwarf stars are more common than Sun-like stars and at least as likely to host temperate rocky planets (M-Earths). However, M dwarfs are active throughout their lifetimes; specifically, X-ray and extreme ultraviolet (XUV) radiation during their early evolution can cause rapid atmospheric loss on orbiting planets. The increased bolometric flux reaching M-Earths leads to warmer, moister upper atmospheres, while XUV radiation can photodissociate water molecules and drive hydrogen and oxygen escape to space. Here, we present a coupled model of deep-water cycling and water loss to space on M-Earths to explore whether these planets can remain habitable despite their volatile evolution. We use a cycling parametrization accounting for the dependence of mantle degassing on seafloor pressure, the dependence of regassing on mantle temperature, and the effect of water on mantle viscosity and thermal evolution. We assume the M dwarf's XUV radiation decreases exponentially with time, and energy-limited water loss with 30 per cent efficiency. We explore the effects of cycling and loss to space on planetary water inventories and water partitioning. Planet surfaces desiccated by loss can be rehydrated, provided there is sufficient water sequestered in the mantle to degas once loss rates diminish at later times. For a given water loss rate, the key parameter is the mantle overturn time-scale at early times: if the mantle overturn time-scale is longer than the loss time-scale, then the planet is likely to keep some of its water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The exoplanet WASP-12b is the prototype for the emerging class of ultrahot, Jupiter-mass exoplanets. Past models have predicted – and near-ultraviolet observations have shown – that this planet is losing mass. We present an analysis of two sets of 3.6 and 4.5  |$\mu \rm{m}$| Spitzer phase curve observations of the system which show clear evidence of infrared radiation from gas stripped from the planet, and the gas appears to be flowing directly toward or away from the host star. This accretion signature is only seen at 4.5  |$\mu \rm{m}$|⁠ , not at 3.6  |$\mu \rm{m}$|⁠ , which is indicative either of CO emission at the longer wavelength or blackbody emission from cool, ≲600 K gas. It is unclear why WASP-12b is the only ultrahot Jupiter to exhibit this mass-loss signature, but perhaps WASP-12b's orbit is decaying as some have claimed, while the orbits of other exoplanets may be more stable; alternatively, the high-energy irradiation from WASP-12A may be stronger than the other host stars. We also find evidence for phase offset variability at the level of 6.4σ (46.2°) at 3.6  |$\mu \rm{m}$|⁠. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we outline a new method for estimating dayside effective temperatures of exoplanets and associated uncertainties using Gaussian process (GP) regression. By applying our method to simulated observations, we show that the GP method estimates uncertainty more robustly than other model-independent approaches. We find that unbiased estimates of effective temperatures can be made using as few as three broad-band measurements (white-light HST WFC3 and the two warm Spitzer IRAC channels), although we caution that estimates made using only IRAC can be significantly biased. We then apply our GP method to the 12 hot Jupiters in the literature whose secondary eclipse depths have been measured by WFC3 and IRAC channels 1 and 2: CoRoT-2 b; HAT-P-7 b; HD 189733 b; HD 209458 b; Kepler-13A b; TrES-3 b; WASP-4 b; WASP-12 b; WASP-18 b; WASP-33 b; WASP-43 b; and WASP-103 b. We present model-independent dayside effective temperatures for these planets, with uncertainty estimates that range from ±66 to ±136 K. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer on the SCISAT satellite has been measuring infrared (IR) transmission spectra of Earth during Solar occultations since 2004. We use these data to build an IR transit spectrum of Earth. Regions of low atmospheric opacity, known as windows, are of particular interest, as they permit observations of the planet's lower atmosphere. Even in the absence of clouds or refraction, imperfect transmittance leads to a minimum effective thickness of h min ≈ 4 km in the 10–12  |$\mu \mathrm{m}$| opacity window at a spectral resolution of R  = 103. None the less, at R  = 105, the maximum transmittance at the surface is around |${70}{{{\ \rm per\ cent}}}$|⁠. In principle, one can probe the troposphere of an Earth-like planet via high-dispersion transit spectroscopy in the mid-IR; in practice aerosols and/or refraction likely make this impossible. We simulate the transit spectrum of an Earth-like planet in the TRAPPIST-1 system. We find that a long-term near-IR (NIR) campaign with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) could readily detect CO2 and H2O, establishing the presence of an atmosphere. A mid-IR campaign or longer NIR campaign would be more challenging, but in principle could detect the biosignatures O3 and CH4. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]