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Causal effects are commonly defined as comparisons of the potential outcomes under treatment and control, but this definition is threatened by the possibility that either the treatment or the control condition is not well defined, existing instead in more than one version. This is often a real possibility in nonexperimental or observational studies of treatments because these treatments occur in the natural or social world without the laboratory control needed to ensure identically the same treatment or control condition occurs in every instance. We consider the simplest case: Either the treatment condition or the control condition exists in two versions that are easily recognized in the data but are of uncertain, perhaps doubtful, relevance, for example, branded Advil versus generic ibuprofen. Common practice does not address versions of treatment: Typically, the issue is either ignored or explicitly stated but assumed to be absent. Common practice is reluctant to address two versions of treatment because the obvious solution entails dividing the data into two parts with two analyses, thereby (a) reducing power to detect versions of treatment in each part, (b) creating problems of multiple inference in coordinating the two analyses, and (c) failing to report a single primary analysis that uses everyone. We propose and illustrate a new method of analysis that begins with a single primary analysis of everyone that would be correct if the two versions do not differ, adds a second analysis that would be correct were there two different effects for the two versions, controls the family-wise error rate in all assertions made by the several analyses, and yet pays no price in power to detect a constant treatment effect in the primary analysis of everyone. Our method can be applied to analyses of constant additive treatment effects on continuous outcomes. Unlike conventional simultaneous inferences, the new method is coordinating several analyses that are valid under different assumptions, so that one analysis would never be performed if one knew for certain that the assumptions of the other analysis are true. It is a multiple assumptions problem rather than a multiple hypotheses problem. We discuss the relative merits of the method with respect to more conventional approaches to analyzing multiple comparisons. The method is motivated and illustrated using a study of the possibility that repeated head trauma in high school football causes an increase in risk of early onset cognitive decline.

Background: Parental support plays an important role in facilitating the participation of children in physical activity. However, there is evidence that parents overestimate their child's level of physical activity -- this may lead to inaction in promotion attempts by parents. This potential disconnect between parental perceptions and reality was recently the focus of the 'Think Again' social marketing campaign developed by PartipACTION. Purpose: To qualitatively explore parents' perceptions of the Think Again advertisements, and the possible disconnect between perceptions and reality regarding their children's physical activity levels. Method: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 12 mothers and 12 fathers of children aged 5-11 years attending a supervised recreation class. A thematic analysis was applied to the collected data. Results: The advertisements were generally well received by the parents in serving as a reminder of how much physical activity their children should be getting. Less than half of parents believed their children were attaining physical activity guidelines although the majority believed they were sufficiently active given perceived time constraints for both them and their child. Most parents believed they could accurately estimate how active their child was but that other parents may have difficulty due to reliance on schools and organized recreation to provide opportunities for physical activity. Conclusion: PSAs have a role to play in increasing parental awareness of physical activity guidelines and communicating the importance of physical activity. More creative approaches will be needed to address the disconnect in the perceptions between sufficient and recommended levels of physical activity.

Modern statistics provides an ever-expanding toolkit for estimating unknown parameters. Consequently, applied statisticians frequently face a difficult decision: retain a parameter estimate from a familiar method or replace it with an estimate from a newer or more complex one. While it is traditional to compare estimates using risk, such comparisons are rarely conclusive in realistic settings. In response, we propose the "c-value" as a measure of confidence that a new estimate achieves smaller loss than an old estimate on a given dataset. We show that it is unlikely that a large c-value coincides with a larger loss for the new estimate. Therefore, just as a small p-value supports rejecting a null hypothesis, a large c-value supports using a new estimate in place of the old. For a wide class of problems and estimates, we show how to compute a c-value by first constructing a data-dependent high-probability lower bound on the difference in loss. The c-value is frequentist in nature, but we show that it can provide validation of shrinkage estimates derived from Bayesian models in real data applications involving hierarchical models and Gaussian processes. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the years, the retail sector has been showing increasing interest in inculcating sustainable consumption practices and behaviors among their consumers. This study, accordingly, explores how retailers can contribute to addressing consumers' various psychological dispositions to co-create sustainable consumption in the retail context. In that regard, the MAPED framework has been developed corresponding to White et al.'s SHIFT framework for exploring the process and mechanism of co-creating sustainable consumption in the retail sector. This comprehensive conceptual framework has been developed using a methodological approach of critical review and analysis of the extant academic literature on value co-creation and sustainable consumption. Accordingly, this study attempts to contribute to both sustainable consumption and value co-creation literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commercial marketing literature highlights benefits from brand advocates who recruit and promote in the interest of the commercial entity. However, a similar focus is lacking on how advocacy can extend the effectiveness of social change initiatives. We utilise a case study to demonstrate the benefit of social advocacy and its impact on behaviour change, and thereby propose an advocacy model. To develop this conceptual model, we discuss several key areas; behaviour change and advocacy, advocate identification, and how to influence advocacy within communities and individuals. This research provides a guiding framework for practitioners to develop programs and interventions with advocacy triggers and strategies to enhance the longevity and effectiveness of social change programs through participant-based advocacy. Thus, giving intervention programs in a variety of organisational structures e.g. non-profit, corporate, government etc. a specific model to increase the effectiveness of social programs. Our paper extends behaviour change literature by leveraging social marketing concepts to modify and extend the transtheoretical model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a three-step framework to determine at which pitches Major League batters should swing. Unlike traditional plate discipline metrics, which implicitly assume that all batters should always swing at (resp. take) pitches inside (resp. outside) the strike zone, our approach explicitly accounts not only for the players and umpires involved in the pitch but also in-game contextual information like the number of outs, the count, baserunners, and score. We first fit flexible Bayesian nonparametric models to estimate (i) the probability that the pitch is called a strike if the batter takes the pitch; (ii) the probability that the batter makes contact if he swings; and (iii) the number of runs the batting team is expected to score following each pitch outcome (e.g. swing and miss, take a called strike, etc.). We then combine these intermediate estimates to determine whether swinging increases the batting team's run expectancy. Our approach enables natural uncertainty propagation so that we can not only determine the optimal swing/take decision but also quantify our confidence in that decision. We illustrate our framework using a case study of pitches faced by Mike Trout in 2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The purpose of this research is to extend Corporate Social Marketing (CSM) literature and provide practitioners with a framework that can be used in different contexts, as the existing literature lacks an understanding of what factors determine the success of a CSM program and understand the interplay between cross-sector partnerships, CSM, and societal outcomes and impact delivery. Companies are taking a greater interest in addressing social issues, utilizing innovative CSR approaches such as CSM to promote behavior change among their audience while matching their core strengths and attributes (Kotler et al., 2012). Focus of the Article: The article evaluates how the CSM program Mein Pragati developed lasting behavior change and seeks to develop a conceptual model around its success. Research Question: How can the CSM contribute to behavior change programs? Program Design/Approach Importance to the Social Marketing Field: The proposed model (Input, Outcome, and Impact Model of Program Development) provides a structured approach to building a CSM program that changes behavior and develops mutual benefit between corporations, government, and nonprofits. Methods: Using a case study approach, this paper analyzes a successful financial inclusion program, Mein Pragati of a global analytics company, CRISIL, and its CSR arm. The three studies (in-depth interviews with eight management members, in-depth interviews with 82 Sakhis (peer educators) and their spouses, and 248 survey interviews with beneficiaries reveal the connection between program development, social outcomes, and societal impact. Results: Based on the findings of the three studies, the cross-sector Input, Output, and Outcome Model of the Program Development proposes ways to build effective CSR interventions. Individually, the findings from the in-depth interviews provide a thematic overview of CSM's success, peer educator interviews identify the impact and outcomes of Mein Pragati, and beneficiary interviews demonstrate program success. Recommendations for Research and Practice: Future research can empirically test the Input, Outcome, and Impact Model of Program Development, as further exploration of CSM is needed to understand how the concepts of people, planet, and profits can mutually benefit and provide both behavioral and societal change within program development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a baseball game progresses, batters appear to perform better the more times they face a particular pitcher. The apparent drop-off in pitcher performance from one time through the order to the next, known as the Time Through the Order Penalty (TTOP), is often attributed to within-game batter learning. Although the TTOP has largely been accepted within baseball and influences many managers' in-game decision making, we argue that existing approaches of estimating the size of the TTOP cannot disentangle continuous evolution in pitcher performance over the course of the game from discontinuities between successive times through the order. Using a Bayesian multinomial regression model, we find that, after adjusting for confounders like batter and pitcher quality, handedness, and home field advantage, there is little evidence of strong discontinuity in pitcher performance between times through the order. Our analysis suggests that the start of the third time through the order should not be viewed as a special cutoff point in deciding whether to pull a starting pitcher. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Artificial turf fields and environmental conditions may influence sports concussion risk, but existing research is limited by uncontrolled confounding factors, limited sample size, and the assumption that risk factors are independent of one another. The purpose of this study was to examine how playing surface, time of season, and game temperature relate to diagnosed concussion risk in the National Football League (NFL). Methods: This retrospective cohort study examined data from the 2012 to the 2019 NFL regular season. We fit Bayesian negative binomial regression models to relate how playing surface, game temperature, and week of the season independently related to diagnosed concussion risk and any interactions among these factors. Results: We identified 1096 diagnosed concussions in 1830 games. There was a >99% probability that concussion risk was reduced on grass surface (median incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.78 [95% credible interval: 0.68, 0.89]), >99% probability that concussion risk was lower at higher temperatures (IRR = 0.85 [0.76,0.95] for each 7.9 °C), and >91% probability that concussion risk increased with each week of the season (IRR = 1.02 [1.00,1.04]). There was an >84% probability for a surface × temperature interaction (IRR = 1.01 [0.96, 1.28]) and >75% probability for a surface × week interaction (IRR = 1.02 [0.99, 1.05]). Conclusions: Diagnosed concussion risk is increased on artificial turf compared with natural grass, and this is exacerbated in cold weather and, independently, later in the season. The complex interplay between these factors necessitates accounting for multiple factors and their interactions when investigating sports injury risk factors and devising mitigation methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, this paper explores the perceptions of the COVID-19 vaccine among South Asian communities residing in the UK. Thirty-eight semi-structured interviews were conducted using a qualitative approach and analyzed using thematic analysis. Participants represented Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Sri Lankan, Afghani, and Nepali backgrounds. The participants revealed that family and community influence their perceptions of the COVID-19 vaccine. The results suggest that normalizing vaccine acceptance, addressing unknown side effects, and popularizing vaccine efficacy data will increase vaccine uptake within the South Asian community in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines how public perception of threat and efficacy (on self and others) influence their tendency to take preventive action against the Zika virus by surveying 1,152 U.S. adults in Texas and Florida. Findings show that individuals were likely to take protective actions when they: (1) saw a high risk of the disease (high threat) and were confident about their ability to reduce the danger (high efficacy); and (2) perceived others as having a high risk (high threat), but lacked the ability to reduce the danger (low efficacy). Further, the study discusses practical implications for the design of public health campaigns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimation of the change in crime over time is a critical first step toward better understanding of public safety in large urban environments. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a natural way to study spatial variation in urban crime dynamics at the neighborhood level, since it facilitates principled "sharing of information" between spatially adjacent neighborhoods. Typically, however, cities contain many physical and social boundaries that may manifest as spatial discontinuities in crime patterns. In this situation, standard prior choices often yield overly smooth parameter estimates, which can ultimately produce mis-calibrated forecasts. To prevent potential over-smoothing, we introduce a prior that partitions the set of neighborhoods into several clusters and encourages spatial smoothness within each cluster. In terms of model implementation, conventional stochastic search techniques are computationally prohibitive, as they must traverse a combinatorially vast space of partitions. We introduce an ensemble optimization procedure that simultaneously identifies several high probability partitions by solving one optimization problem using a new local search strategy. We then use the identified partitions to estimate crime trends in Philadelphia between 2006 and 2017. On simulated and real data, our proposed method demonstrates good estimation and partition selection performance. for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Segmentation use in social marketing especially in improving the health of young adults is limited, and theory use within segmentation remains infrequent. A generalisable segmentation structure that can be reliably applied across different young adult's samples may assist social marketers to move beyond one size fits all healthy eating programs. Focus of the Article: Segmentation is an essential marketing principle which allows customising marketing activities to the needs of specific segments. Evidence shows that behaviour change is more likely when more principles are used, yet segmentation remains underutilised and a cross-sample validation of segments across different populations remains to be demonstrated. Importance to the Social Marketing Field: Delivery of healthy eating programs targeted to group differences and accommodating a broader theory-based socio-ecological viewpoint is needed to engage with a cross section of young adults more effectively along with a cross-sample validation of segments across different populations to identify a valid segmentation structure that can be reliably applied across the Australian young adult population. Methods: A replication study was conducted using the same constructs, items and analytical procedures as in the original study. Data was collected online and in person using a paper survey in two military bases to ensure a mix of Australian Defence Force (ADF) trainee types. Psychographic variables informed by the MOA framework were collected and used to segment the sample with two-step cluster analysis along with a demographic measure (education) and behavioural measure (eating behaviour) to repeat the segmentation analysis. Results: The ability of the MOA framework to explain eating behaviour was confirmed in the ADF trainee sample, and two-step cluster analysis produced a similar segment structure to the original study with education, opportunity and motivation to eat healthy being the most important variables in segment formation. Recommendations for Research or Practice: Segmentation is important for developing understanding that enables social marketers to design social change programs to meet the needs of young adults. This empirical replication study confirmed a similar theory-driven healthy eating segment solution across two young adult populations illustrating the value of using behavioural theories to draw segments and utilising the same theory to cross-validate the constructs in a comparable sample. Future research could use this approach to identify a valid segmentation structure that can be reliably applied across different populations and behavioural contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been a proliferation of digital sexual health interventions targeting adolescents; however, limited evaluative reviews have compared the effectiveness of multiple digital tools for sexual health literacy and behaviour change. This study conducted a systematic literature review, screened 9881 records and analysed 61 studies. Findings suggest that websites and mobile phones dominate digital sexual health interventions, with a majority effectively delivering cognitive (e.g. awareness and attitudes about sexual and reproductive health) and behavioural outcomes (e.g. abstinence and use of contraception). The most popular sexual health promotion mechanisms were interactive websites, text messaging and phone calls, and online education programmes, followed by mobile applications—fewer studies in this review utilized social media, games and multimedia. Previous reviews focused on single outcome measures (e.g. sexually transmitted infection testing) to assess interventions' effectiveness. The current review moves beyond single outcome measures to cover a wider range of behavioural and non-behavioural sexual health issues and contexts covered in the literature. Four main categories were analysed as outcomes: cognitive perceptions, promoting sexual health-related behaviours, promoting sexual health-related products and services, and impact (viral load). Seventy-nine per cent of interventions focused on preventive sexual health behaviours and products (e.g. condoms) and services (e.g. HIV testing). Overall, 75% of studies effectively changed sexual health behaviour and cognitive perceptions. However, the digital-only tools did not vary from the blended formats, in influence outcomes, even after categorizing them into behavioural or non-behavioural outcomes. Compared to previous systematic reviews, more studies from the last decade used rigorous research design in the form of randomized controlled trials, non-randomized control trials, and quasi-experiments and lasted longer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper performs a comprehensive analysis of academic research on impulse buying following a systematic literature review approach. Drawing on the TCCM framework suggested by Paul and Rosado‐Serrano, we synthesize the impulse buying literature and develop a future research agenda. Accordingly, this review synthesizes impulse buying research in terms of theory development, context, characteristics, and methodologies to examine the development of the literature over time. This systematic review shows that impulse buying research is fragmented and still developing due to its transition from a traditional retail environment into different online channels. Furthermore, this paper proposes a conceptual framework based on the literature synthesis, presenting antecedents and mediators of impulse buying behaviour. Finally, this review identifies overlooked areas in impulse buying literature and provides insightful directions to advance research in the domain. Overall, this research effort makes a significant contribution to consumer behaviour literature, specifically to impulse buying literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polypropylene (PP) based materials for nonreusable syringe applications have been investigated, some of them containing an internal liquid lubricant. Hardness, tensile properties, and friction measured by two distinct procedures have been determined. We report three series of results: for nonirradiated samples; for samples directly after stopping the irradiation; and also for samples after accelerated aging equivalent to 2 years of shelf life. We find that effects of irradiation and aging on Shore A and Shore D hardness are small. Tensile strength at break, elongation at yield, and elongation at break all decrease after irradiation and then decrease still more after aging; these results are quantified but expected. By contrast, results from pin-on-disk tribometry are quite varied. In some cases γ irradiation and aging both increase friction, in other cases both decrease friction. We also have a case when irradiation increases friction while aging decreases it--as well as vice versa. Possible mechanisms of all these types of behavior are advanced. POLYM. ENG. SCI., 49:1035-1041, 2009. [C]2009 Society of Plastics Engineers, INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE Gamma irradiation is known to have significant effects on properties of polymers and polymer-containing composites (1-18). At the same time, such irradiation is the most frequently applied [...]

Background: Social marketing managers promote desired behaviors to an audience by making them tangible in the form of environmental opportunities to enhance benefits and reduce barriers. This study proposed "benchmarks," modified from those found in the past literature, that would match important concepts of the social marketing framework and the inclusion of which would ensure behavior change effectiveness. In addition, we analyzed behavior change interventions on a "social marketing continuum" to assess whether the number of benchmarks and the role of specific benchmarks influence the effectiveness of physical activity promotion efforts. Methods: A systematic review of social marketing interventions available in academic studies published between 1997 and 2013 revealed 173 conditions in 92 interventions. Results: Findings based on χ2, Mallows' Cp, and Logical Analysis of Data tests revealed that the presence of more benchmarks in interventions increased the likelihood of success in promoting physical activity. The presence of more than 3 benchmarks improved the success of the interventions; specifically, all interventions were successful when more than 7.5 benchmarks were present. Further, primary formative research, core product, actual product, augmented product, promotion, and behavioral competition all had a significant influence on the effectiveness of interventions. Conclusions: Social marketing is an effective approach in promoting physical activity among adults when a substantial number of benchmarks are used and when managers understand the audience, make the desired behavior tangible, and promote the desired behavior persuasively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past few years, the chemical mechanical planarization (CMP) community has systematically characterized the device reliability issues associated with the introduction of copper metallization into integrated circuit fabrication. To gain further understanding of the impact of CMP processing on device performance, this paper reports in detail the interactions of simulated copper slurries and pristine segmented polyurethanes. These studies clearly show that polyurethane is fundamentally incompatible with some of the chemicals used in copper CMP, such as hydrogen peroxide. Experimental copper polishing data on both polyurethane and polyolefin-based pads are compared. The pad performance differences between the polyurethane and polyolefin--based pads are explained based on the chemistry of the base polymers used in the pad fabrication. These results are incorporated into the design and fabrication of a new class of polyolefins-based application specific pads. Index Terms--Chemical mechanical planarization (CMP), copper, pads, reliability.