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In this paper we explore the unit root properties of crude oil production for 15 sampled countries employing the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) panel unit root test with (and without) one structural break for the period 1990-2017. In case of applying LM univariate test without a structural break, the results are ambiguous and inconclusive with moderate support for stationarity. The results of LM panel unit root test with a structural break are significant and conclusive, stating that for a sampled panel, crude oil production is stationary.Keywords: crude oil, oil shock, unit root, panel analysis, Lagrange multiplierJEL Classifications: C23, E23, Q43DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7121

In this article we test the hypothesis about the impact of oil prices shocks on the unemployment and crime rate on the example of oil-exporting country. According to the hypothesis, there exist a dependence of the labor market on oil revenue. A negative oil price shock should lead to a decrease in the employment rate, which in turn should lead to a rise in illegal forms of behavior. Illegal behavior is measured as an average of registered crimes (bribery and drug dealing). Based on data for 1990-2017 we study a case of Russia, using vector error correction model for detecting short- and long-term effects. Results show that oil prices and unemployment affect crime rate in the long-run in a case of oil-exporting country. Yet, in the short-run both negative oil shocks and a rise in unemployment rate lead to a statistically significant increase in bribery and drug dealing. A 1% decrease in oil price will lead to a 1,14% rise in bribery and drug dealing and a 1% increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 2,72% increase in drug dealing and bribery.Keywords: oil prices, unemployment, crime rate, bribery, vector error correction approach.JEL Classifications: Q41, E24, F43, K42DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.6833

In this paper we investigate the long- and short-run effects of economic growth and Internet usage on electricity consumption using a panel data for countries – members of Commonwealth of Independent States for the period 1991-2017. The study is based on panel unit root test, panel cointegration test, the pooled mean group regression technique and Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel Granger causality test. The results show that Internet usage affects electricity consumption in the long-run. A 1% increase in the number of the Internet users per 100 people increases electricity consumption per capita by 0.021% in the sampled countries Economic growth affects electricity consumption both in the short- and long-run. A 1% increase in economic growth rate cause a 1.45% increase in electricity consumption per capita in CIS states. Results of panel causality test show that Internet usage and economic growth cause electricity consumption.Keywords: Electricity consumption, economic growth, internet usage, panel analysis, causalityJEL Classifications: L94, O4, Q4, Q42, O1

In this paper we investigate the casual relationship between energy consumption, trade openness, exchange rate and foreign direct investment in Union State of Russia and Belarus for the period from 1997 to 2017. To test the hypothesis and explain the possible casual relations we use the error correction approach. Result of the conducted research show that in the short run trade openness and exchange rate affect foreign direct investment in positive and significant manner. In the long run, energy consumption, trade openness and exchange rate positively affect foreign direct investment.Keywords: Foreign direct investment, energy consumption, trade openness, exchange rate, error correction model JEL Classifications: F21, F31, Q43

Seasonal anomalies play an important role in the global economic system. One of the most frequently empirically observed anomalies is the Halloween effect. Halloween effect describes the anomaly in the financial markets, which is that the returns of different assets in the summer period generally are lower than the returns in the winter period. This study tests the hypothesis of the existence of the Halloween effect on the energy markets over the period from 1985 to 2016. The sample includes series of prices for various energy resources. The econometric estimation showed that for a range of energy markets, returns during the summer period are higher than the returns in winter ones. The difference in returns is statistically significant, which speaks in favor the Halloween effect.Keywords: Halloween effect, financial market, energy market, bounded rationality, investor sentimentJEL Classifications: G15; G41; Q41, Q43.

In this article, we set ourselves a task to test institutional memory hypothesis as a core of endogenous credit cycles. According to this hypothesis, risks taken by creditors depend largely on availability heuristic and experience of loan officers. To assess validity of this hypothesis we construct and estimate a simple VAR model. The data for this model is acquired from results of an experimental study (lasted for 70 rounds), the purpose of which is to identify behavioral patterns of participants while meeting demand for credit, specifics of subjectively weighted assessment of credit risk, based on shock approach. The results of the study allow confirming institutional memory hypothesis. After initial shock of bad debts, number of periods to recover willingness to accept risk has increased by 39%, which supports the hypothesis of availability heuristic’s influence. However, with improvement of loan portfolio’s quality, willingness to take risk is restoring. In addition, we managed to confirm existence of risk’s underestimation and overestimation periods in an experimental manner. Key words: Institutional memory hypothesis, Credit cycle, Availability heuristic, Credit risk, Bounded rationality. JEL: G02, E32, E51. Ponovo testiranje hipoteze institucionalnog pamcenja: Eksperimentalna studija U radu postavili smo zadatak da testiramo hipotezu o institucionalnom pamcenju kao jezgru endogenih kreditnih ciklusa. Prema ovoj hipotezi, rizici koje donatori preuzimaju u velikoj meri zavise od heuristicke dostupnosti i iskustva kreditnih službenika. Da bismo procenili validnost ove hipoteze, konstruisemo i ocenjujemo jednostavan VAR model. Podaci za ovaj model su nabavljeni iz rezultata eksperimentalne studije (koji je trajao 70 krugova), cija je svrha da se identifikuju obrasci ponasanja ucesnika u toku zadovoljenja potražnje za kreditom, specificnosti subjektivno ponderisane procene kreditnog rizika, zasnovane na pristupu koji se bazira na sokovima. Rezultati studije omogucavaju potvrđivanje hipoteze o institucionalnom pamcenju. Nakon inicijalnog soka zbog losih dugova, broj perioda za povracaj volje za prihvatanje rizika povecao se za 39%, sto podržava hipotezu o uticaju heuristicke raspoloživosti. Međutim, uz poboljsanje kvaliteta kreditnog portfolia, volja za uzimanje rizika je vracena. Pored toga, uspeli smo da potvrdimo postojanje potcenjivanja i precenjivanja rizika na ekperimentalni nacin. Kljucne reci: hipoteza institucionalnog pamcenja, kreditni ciklus, heuristicka raspoloživost, kreditni rizik, ogranicena racionalnost.

This article aims to explore the causal relationship between financial development, economic growth and renewable energy consumption on the example of Russia. Using data from 1990 to 2014, we build the vector error correction model to determine the nature of short-term and long-term relationships between the variables. To determine causality and its direction, we use the Granger causality test VEC in domain. The results of the VEC model show that the system of variables corrects its previous period disequilibrium at a speed 22,98% in one year. Based on the results of the Wald test, we find no statistically significant causality running from renewable energy consumption to either economic growth or financial development. The results of Granger causality test show that there is bi-directional causality between economic growth and financial development in Russia, while renewable energy consumption does not Granger cause economic growth or financial development. Although economic growth does Granger cause changes in renewable energy consumption.Keywords: renewable energy, economic growth, financial development, vector error correction modelJEL Classifications: D53, O40, Q42, Q43

In this article we test the hypothesis about the impact of oil prices shocks on the competition in the labor market on the example of oil-exporting country. According to the hypothesis of the study, positive (negative) oil price shock leads to an increase (fall) in the demand for labor, which, in turn, leads to growth (slowdown in growth) of wages adjusted for inflation given wages inelasticity in the short term. Based on data for 1990-2016 we study a case of Russia, using vector error correction model. In the result we come to conclusion that a positive oil price shock leads to an increase of the aggregate level of wages in the economy and employment growth. A negative oil price shock leads to a slowdown in the growth of the aggregate level of wages and to an increase in the average level of unemployment.Keywords: oil prices, employment, competition, labor, human capital.JEL Classifications: Q41, E24, F16, C12

In this article we test the hypothesis of oil price channel of US monetary policy transmission to oil-exporting countries under floating exchange rate regime and free capital mobility. On the example of Russia, using quarterly data for the period from 2000 to 2016, we study the long-term and short-term relations between the US effective federal funds rate, world oil prices (Brent) and the Bank of Russia’s key rate. The results of the VEC model show that the system of variables corrects its previous period disequilibrium at a speed 61,24% in one quarter. Based on the results of the Wald test, we find statistically significant causality running from world oil prices to interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia with the rate of adaptation to equilibrium by 10.21%. The results also show presence of causality running from US monetary policy to Bank of Russia’s key rate with the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium at 25,69%. Overall results of the study show that a negative shock in US rate leads to decline in oil prices (Brent), which in turn leads to an increase in Russia’s key rate. Revealed oil price transmission channel serves also as an additional argument against Mundell-Fleming Trilemma, according to which under floating exchange rate and free capital mobility, monetary policy of the country may be independent.Keywords: world oil prices, transmission channel, Mundell-Fleming trilemma, monetary policyJEL Classifications: E50; E58; F40; Q41, Q43.