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4. Mind games

Author

Dobson, Andrew

Published
1997

5. Association of Environmental Factors with Seasonal Intensity of Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae Seropositivity among Arctic Caribou

Author

Aleuy, O. Alejandro, Anholt, Michele, Orsel, Karin, Mavrot, Fabien, Gagnon, Catherine A., Beckmen, Kimberlee, Cote, Steeve D., Cuyler, Christine, Dobson, Andrew, Elkin, Brett, Leclerc, Lisa-Marie, Taillon, Joelle, and Kutz, Susan

Subjects
Reindeer -- Diseases -- Environmental aspects, Caribou -- Diseases -- Environmental aspects, Mycoplasmatales -- Identification and classification -- Environmental aspects, Emerging communicable diseases -- Risk factors -- Environmental aspects, Health
Abstract

A 2021 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1) reinforced that anthropogenic influences on climate systems are causing increases in temperature and extremes of weather and climate events [...]

Published
2022
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6. Evidence gaps and diversity among potential win–win solutions for conservation and human infectious disease control

Author

Hopkins, Skylar R, Lafferty, Kevin D, Wood, Chelsea L, Olson, Sarah H, Buck, Julia C, De Leo, Giulio A, Fiorella, Kathryn J, Fornberg, Johanna L, Garchitorena, Andres, Jones, Isabel J, Kuris, Armand M, Kwong, Laura H, LeBoa, Christopher, Leon, Ariel E, Lund, Andrea J, MacDonald, Andrew J, Metz, Daniel C G, Nova, Nicole, Peel, Alison J, Remais, Justin V, Stewart Merrill, Tara E, Wilson, Maya, Bonds, Matthew H, Dobson, Andrew P, Lopez Carr, David, Howard, Meghan E, Mandle, Lisa, and Sokolow, Susanne H

Published
2022
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9. Hookworm prevalence in ocelots in Costa Rica is inconsistent with spillover from domestic dogs despite high overlap.

Author

Vargas Soto, Juan S., Gostic, Katelyn M., Melnycky, Natalka A., Johnson, Julianna G., Dobson, Andrew P., Lafferty, Kevin D., Standley, Claire J., and Molnár, Péter K.

Abstract

Spatial overlap between wildlife and related domestic animals can lead to disease transmission, with substantial evidence for viral and bacterial spillover. Domestic and wild animals can also share potentially harmful helminth parasites, many of which have environmental transmission stages that do not require direct contact between hosts. We used camera traps, fecal sampling, and mathematical modeling to evaluate the potential for hookworm parasites to spillover from domestic dogs to wild cats in the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica. Traditional microscopy was found to be more sensitive than DNA‐based diagnostics for parasites, though the methods were complementary. We found high hookworm (Ancylostoma spp.) prevalence in domestic dogs (74.2%, 95% CI: 67.0%–80.7%, N = 155), and considerable spatial overlap with ocelots (Leopardus pardalis) and pumas (Puma concolor), particularly on trails and dirt roads. Pumas had hookworm prevalence of 36.4% (18.6%–57.2%, N = 22), and ocelots had 27.3% (7.6%–56.5%, N = 11); however, molecular identification of these parasites was inconclusive. We developed a macroparasite transmission model to infer the likelihood of spillover, compared with separate parasite cycles, or different parasite species in each host. According to the model, spillover of hookworm from dogs would lead to a prevalence of less than 10% in wild hosts. Low presumed compatibility between wild hosts and parasites adapted to domestic species limits the prevalence that could be reached in wild species, even under potentially higher overlap. The prevalence observed was more consistent with a model that assumes hookworms in wild cats in the Osa are a cat‐specific parasite. The combination of parasitology, molecular diagnostics, and mathematical modeling used here could complement wildlife disease monitoring programs worldwide to shed light on understudied helminth–host dynamics at the domestic–wild animal interface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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11. A solution scan of societal options to reduce transmission and spread of respiratory viruses: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study

Author

Sutherland, William J., Taylor, Nigel G., Aldridge, David C., Martin, Philip, Rhodes, Catherine, Shackelford, Gorm, Beard, Simon, Belfield, Haydn, Bladon, Andrew J., Brick, Cameron, Christie, Alec P., Dobson, Andrew P., Downey, Harriet, Hood, Amelia S.C., Hua, Fangyuan, Hughes, Alice C., Jarvis, Rebecca M., MacFarlane, Douglas, Morgan, William H., Mupepele, Anne-Christine, Marciniak, Stefan J., Nelson, Cassidy, Ó hÉigeartaigh, Seán, Rios Rojas, Clarissa, Sainsbury, Katherine A., Smith, Rebecca K., Sundaram, Lalitha S., Thornton, Ann, Watkins, John, White, Thomas B., Willott, Kate, and Petrovan, Silviu O.

Published
2021
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14. The Hidden Hand of Asymptomatic Infection Hinders Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Modeling Analysis.

Author

Rock, Kat S, Chapman, Lloyd A C, Dobson, Andrew P, Adams, Emily R, and Hollingsworth, T Déirdre

Subjects
TRYPANOSOMIASIS prevention, TROPICAL medicine, INFECTION control, HUMAN anatomical models, RESEARCH funding, DISEASE vectors, SYMPTOMS, TREATMENT effectiveness, UNCERTAINTY, MICE, NEGLECTED diseases, ANIMAL experimentation, EPIDEMICS, MATHEMATICAL models, MEDICAL screening, THEORY, TRYPANOSOMIASIS, LEISHMANIASIS, DISEASE incidence, EPIDEMIOLOGY
Abstract

Background Neglected tropical diseases are responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in low-income populations. International efforts have reduced their global burden, but transmission is persistent and case-finding-based interventions rarely target asymptomatic individuals. Methods We develop a generic mathematical modeling framework for analyzing the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian sub-continent (VL), gambiense sleeping sickness (gHAT), and Chagas disease and use it to assess the possible contribution of asymptomatics who later develop disease (pre-symptomatics) and those who do not (non-symptomatics) to the maintenance of infection. Plausible interventions, including active screening, vector control, and reduced time to detection, are simulated for the three diseases. Results We found that the high asymptomatic contribution to transmission for Chagas and gHAT and the apparently high basic reproductive number of VL may undermine long-term control. However, the ability to treat some asymptomatics for Chagas and gHAT should make them more controllable, albeit over relatively long time periods due to the slow dynamics of these diseases. For VL, the toxicity of available therapeutics means the asymptomatic population cannot currently be treated, but combining treatment of symptomatics and vector control could yield a quick reduction in transmission. Conclusions Despite the uncertainty in natural history, it appears there is already a relatively good toolbox of interventions to eliminate gHAT, and it is likely that Chagas will need improvements to diagnostics and their use to better target pre-symptomatics. The situation for VL is less clear, and model predictions could be improved by additional empirical data. However, interventions may have to improve to successfully eliminate this disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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16. Transmission ecology of canine parvovirus in a multi-host, multi-pathogen system

Author

Behdenna, Abdelkader, Lembo, Tiziana, Calatayud, Olga, Cleaveland, Sarah, Halliday, Jo E. B., Packer, Craig, Lankester, Felix, Hampson, Katie, Craft, Meggan E., Czupryna, Anna, Dobson, Andrew P., Dubovi, Edward J., Ernest, Eblate, Fyumagwa, Robert, Hopcraft, J. Grant C., Mentzel, Christine, Mzimbiri, Imam, Sutton, David, Willett, Brian, Haydon, Daniel T., and Viana, Mafalda

Published
2019

21. Ivory crisis : Growing no-trade consensus

Author

Sills, Jennifer, Sekar, Nitin, Clark, William, Dobson, Andrew, Coelho, Paula Cristina Francisco, Hannam, Phillip M., Hepworth, Robert, Hsiang, Solomon, Kahumbu, Paula, Lee, Phyllis C., Lindsay, Keith, Pereira, Carlos Lopes, Wasser, Samuel K., and Nowak, Katarzyna

Published
2018

23. Pneumonia in Bighorn Sheep : Risk and Resilience

Author

CASSIRER, E. FRANCES, MANLOVE, KEZIA R., ALMBERG, EMILY S., KAMATH, PAULINE L., COX, MIKE, WOLFF, PEREGRINE, ROUG, ANNETTE, SHANNON, JUSTIN, ROBINSON, RUSTY, HARRIS, RICHARD B., GONZALES, BEN J., PLOWRIGHT, RAINA K., HUDSON, PETER J., CROSS, PAUL C., DOBSON, ANDREW, and BESSER, THOMAS E.

Published
2018

24. Valuing water for sustainable development

Author

Garrick, Dustin E., Hall, Jim W., Dobson, Andrew, Damania, Richard, Grafton, R. Quentin, Hope, Robert, Hepburn, Cameron, Bark, Rosalind, Boltz, Frederick, De Stefano, Lucia, O’Donnell, Erin, Matthews, Nathanial, and Money, Alex

Published
2017

25. Ecological Science and Sustainability for the 21st Century

Author

Palmer, Margaret A., Bernhardt, Emily S., Chornesky, Elizabeth A., Collins, Scott L., Dobson, Andrew P., Duke, Clifford S., Gold, Barry D., Jacobson, Robert B., Kingsland, Sharon E., Kranz, Rhonda H., Mappin, Michael J., Martinez, M. Luisa, Micheli, Fiorenza, Morse, Jennifer L., Pace, Michael L., Pascual, Mercedes, Palumbi, Stephen S., Reichman, O. J., Townsend, Alan R., and Turner, Monica G.

Published
2005
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31. Human Health Effects of a Changing Global Nitrogen Cycle

Author

Townsend, Alan R., Howarth, Robert W., Bazzaz, Fakhri A., Booth, Mary S., Cleveland, Cory C., Collinge, Sharon K., Dobson, Andrew P., Epstein, Paul R., Holland, Elisabeth A., Keeney, Dennis R., Mallin, Michael A., Rogers, Christine A., Wayne, Peter, and Wolfe, Amir H.

Published
2003
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32. Seismic modelling for the sub-basalt imaging problem including an analysis and development of the boundary element method

Author

Dobson, Andrew, Ziolkowski, Anton., and Xiang-Yang, Li

Subjects
551.2, Sub-Basalt Imaging, Boundary Element Method
Abstract

The north-east Atlantic margin (NEAM) is important for hydrocarbon exploration because of the growing evidence of hydrocarbon reserves in the region. However, seismic exploration of the sub-surface is hampered by large deposits of flood basalts, which cover possible hydrocarbon-bearing reservoirs underneath. There are several hypotheses as to why imaging beneath basalt is a problem. These include: the high impedance contrast between the basalt and the layers above; the thin-layering of the basalt due to the many flows which make up a basalt succession; and the rough interfaces on the top-basalt interface caused by weathering and emplacement mechanisms. I perform forward modelling to assess the relative importance of these factors for imaging of sub-basalt reflections. The boundary element method (BEM) is used for the rough-interface modelling. The method was selected because only the interfaces between layers need to be discretized, in contrast to grid methods such as finite difference for which the whole model needs to be discretized, and so should lead to fast generation of shot gathers for models which have only a few homogeneous layers. I have had to develop criteria for accurate modelling with the boundary element method and have considered the following: source near an interface, two interfaces close together, removal of model edge effects and precise modelling of a transparent interface. I have improved efficiency of my code by: resampling the model so that fewer discretization elements are required at low frequencies, and suppressing wrap-around so that the time window length can be reduced. I introduce a new scheme which combines domain decomposition and a far-field approximation to improve the efficiency of the boundary element code further. I compare performance with a standard finite difference code. I show that the BEM is well suited to seismic modelling in an exploration environment when there are only a few layers in the model and when a seismic profile containing many shot gathers for one model is required. For many other cases the finite difference code is still the best option. The input models for the forward modelling are based on real seismic data which were acquired in the Faeroe-Shetland Channel in 2001. The modelling shows that roughness on the surface of the basalt has little effect on the imaging in this particular area of the NEAM. The thin layers in the basalt act as a low-pass filter to the seismic wave. For the real-data acquisition, even the topbasalt reflection is a low frequency event. This is most likely to be due to high attenuation in the layers above the basalt. I show that sea-surface multiple energy is considerable and that it could mask possible sub-basalt events on a seismic shot gather, but any shallow sub-basalt events should still be visible even with the presence of multiple energy. This leaves the possibility that there is only one major stratigraphic unit between the base of the basalt and the crystalline basement. The implication of the forward modelling and real data analysis for acquisition is that the acquisition parameters must emphasize the low frequencies, since the high frequencies are attenuated before they even reach the top-basalt interface. The implication for processing is that multiple removal is of prime importance.

Published
2005

33. Transformational Principles for NEON Sampling of Mammalian Parasites and Pathogens : A Response to Springer and Colleagues

Author

COOK, JOSEPH A., GREIMAN, STEPHEN E., AGOSTA, SALVATORE J., ANDERSON, ROBERT P., ARBOGAST, BRIAN S., BAKER, ROBERT J., BOEGER, WALTER, BRADLEY, ROBERT D., BROOKS, DANIEL R., COLE, REBECCA, DEMBOSKI, JOHN R., DOBSON, ANDREW P., DUNNUM, JONATHAN L., ECKERLIN, RALPH P., ESSELSTYN, JACOB, GALBREATH, KURT E., HAWDON, JOHN, HOEKSTRA, HOPI E., KUTZ, SUSAN J., LIGHT, JESSICA E., OLSON, LINK E., PATTERSON, BRUCE D., PATTON, JAMES L., PHILLIPS, ANNA J., RICKART, ERIC, ROGERS, DUKE S., SIDDALL, MARK E., TKACH, VASYL V., and HOBERG, ERIC P.

Published
2016

49. From serological surveys to disease burden: a modelling pipeline for Chagas disease.

Author

Ledien, Julia, Cucunubá, Zulma M., Parra-Henao, Gabriel, Rodríguez-Monguí, Eliana, Dobson, Andrew P., Adamo, Susana B., Castellanos, Luis Gerardo, Basáñez, María-Gloria, and Nouvellet, Pierre

Subjects
CHAGAS' disease, NEGLECTED diseases
Abstract

In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) set the elimination of Chagas disease intradomiciliary vectorial transmission as a goal by 2020. After a decade, some progress has been made, but the new 2021–2030 WHO roadmap has set even more ambitious targets. Innovative and robust modelling methods are required to monitor progress towards these goals. We present a modelling pipeline using local seroprevalence data to obtain national disease burden estimates by disease stage. Firstly, local seroprevalence information is used to estimate spatio-temporal trends in the Force-of-Infection (FoI). FoI estimates are then used to predict such trends across larger and fine-scale geographical areas. Finally, predicted FoI values are used to estimate disease burden based on a disease progression model. Using Colombia as a case study, we estimated that the number of infected people would reach 506 000 (95% credible interval (CrI) = 395 000–648 000) in 2020 with a 1.0% (95%CrI = 0.8–1.3%) prevalence in the general population and 2400 (95%CrI = 1900–3400) deaths (approx. 0.5% of those infected). The interplay between a decrease in infection exposure (FoI and relative proportion of acute cases) was overcompensated by a large increase in population size and gradual population ageing, leading to an increase in the absolute number of Chagas disease cases over time. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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