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Abstract Background Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) are implicated in the aetiology of non-communicable diseases. Our study aimed to evaluate associations between NAFLD and MetS with overall and cause-specific mortality. Methods We used dietary, lifestyle, anthropometric and metabolic biomarker data from a random subsample of 15,784 EPIC cohort participants. NAFLD was assessed using the fatty liver index (FLI) and MetS using the revised definition. Indices for metabolic dysfunction–associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) were calculated. The individual associations of these indices with overall and cause-specific mortality were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs). As a subobjective, risk associations with adaptations of new classifications of metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and metabolic and alcohol-related liver disease (MetALD) were also assessed. Results Among the 15,784 sub-cohort participants, a total of 1997 deaths occurred (835 due to cancer, 520 to CVD, 642 to other causes) over a median 15.6 (IQR, 12.3–17.1) years of follow-up. Compared to an FLI

Objectives, setting and participants: We aimed to examine changes in dietary habits, lifestyles (e.g., smoking, physical activity levels, and alcohol intake), anthropometry, other individual health-relevant characteristics, and overall adherence to 2018 WCRF/AICR cancer prevention recommendations, among women enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Florence cohort. Design and measurements: We fitted age- and energy intake-adjusted generalized linear models to describe (a) changes occurring over a person’s lifetime in the transition from adulthood to older age, and (b) differences between women aged 56−60 years belonging to two birth cohorts spaced apart by around 25 years (born in 1933−1941 vs. 1958−1964). Results: Dietary habits and overall adherence to cancer prevention recommendations improved among women (n = 3,309) followed from adulthood to older age (mean age 47.4 and 71.8 years, respectively), despite increases in the prevalence of adiposity and sedentary lifestyle. Women in the younger birth cohort (n = 163) showed significantly greater overall adherence to cancer prevention recommendations than in the older birth cohort (n = 355), but had more often a positive smoking history and an average larger waist circumference. Conclusion: A trend toward better adherence to cancer prevention recommendations emerged when analyzing adult-to-older-age trajectories and differences across birth cohort, yet some critical issues were also identified. Continuous monitoring is essential to detect changing prevention needs and adapt public health policies and practices.

Abstract Background Fatty acid binding protein 4 (FABP-4) is a lipid-binding adipokine upregulated in obesity, which may facilitate fatty acid supply for tumor growth and promote insulin resistance and inflammation and may thus play a role in colorectal cancer (CRC) development. We aimed to investigate the association between circulating FABP-4 and CRC and to assess potential causality using a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. Methods The association between pre-diagnostic plasma measurements of FABP-4 and CRC risk was investigated in a nested case-control study in 1324 CRC cases and the same number of matched controls within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. A two-sample Mendelian randomization study was conducted based on three genetic variants (1 cis, 2 trans) associated with circulating FABP-4 identified in a published genome-wide association study (discovery n = 20,436) and data from 58,131 CRC cases and 67,347 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium, Colorectal Cancer Transdisciplinary Study, and Colon Cancer Family Registry. Results In conditional logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounders including body size, the estimated relative risk, RR (95% confidence interval, CI) per one standard deviation, SD (8.9 ng/mL) higher FABP-4 concentration was 1.01 (0.92, 1.12) overall, 0.95 (0.80, 1.13) in men and 1.09 (0.95, 1.25) in women. Genetically determined higher FABP-4 was not associated with colorectal cancer risk (RR per FABP-4 SD was 1.10 (0.95, 1.27) overall, 1.03 (0.84, 1.26) in men and 1.21 (0.98, 1.48) in women). However, in a cis-MR approach, a statistically significant association was observed in women (RR 1.56, 1.09, 2.23) but not overall (RR 1.23, 0.97, 1.57) or in men (0.99, 0.71, 1.37). Conclusions Taken together, these analyses provide no support for a causal role of circulating FABP-4 in the development of CRC, although the cis-MR provides some evidence for a positive association in women, which may deserve to be investigated further.

Abstract Background High mammographic breast density (MBD) is an established risk factor for breast cancer (BC). Body fatness conveys an increased BC risk in postmenopause but is associated with less dense breasts. Here, we studied the relationship between body fatness and breast composition within the FEDRA (Florence-EPIC Digital mammographic density and breast cancer Risk Assessment) longitudinal study. Methods Repeated anthropometric data and MBD parameters (obtained through an automated software on BC screening digital mammograms) were available for all participants, as well as information on other BC risk factors. Multivariate linear regression and functional data analysis were used to longitudinally evaluate the association of body fatness, and changes thereof over time, with dense (DV) and non-dense (NDV) breast volumes and volumetric percent density (VPD). Results A total of 5,262 women were included, with anthropometric data available at 20 and 40 years of age, at EPIC baseline (mean 49.0 years), and an average of 9.4 years thereafter. The mean number of mammograms per woman was 3.3 (SD 1.6). Body fatness (and increases thereof) at any age was positively associated with DV and NDV (the association being consistently stronger for the latter), and inversely associated with VPD. For instance, an increase by 1 kg/year between the age of 40 years and EPIC baseline was significantly associated with 1.97% higher DV, 8.85% higher NDV, and 5.82% lower VPD. Conclusion Body fatness and its increase from young adulthood until midlife are inversely associated with volumetric percent density, but positively associated with dense and non-dense breast volumes in postmenopausal women.

Abstract Background Amino acid metabolism is dysregulated in colorectal cancer patients; however, it is not clear whether pre-diagnostic levels of amino acids are associated with subsequent risk of colorectal cancer. We investigated circulating levels of amino acids in relation to colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and UK Biobank cohorts. Methods Concentrations of 13-21 amino acids were determined in baseline fasting plasma or serum samples in 654 incident colorectal cancer cases and 654 matched controls in EPIC. Amino acids associated with colorectal cancer risk following adjustment for the false discovery rate (FDR) were then tested for associations in the UK Biobank, for which measurements of 9 amino acids were available in 111,323 participants, of which 1221 were incident colorectal cancer cases. Results Histidine levels were inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk in EPIC (odds ratio [OR] 0.80 per standard deviation [SD], 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69–0.92, FDR P-value=0.03) and in UK Biobank (HR 0.93 per SD, 95% CI 0.87–0.99, P-value=0.03). Glutamine levels were borderline inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk in EPIC (OR 0.85 per SD, 95% CI 0.75–0.97, FDR P-value=0.08) and similarly in UK Biobank (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.89–1.01, P=0.09) In both cohorts, associations changed only minimally when cases diagnosed within 2 or 5 years of follow-up were excluded. Conclusions Higher circulating levels of histidine were associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer in two large prospective cohorts. Further research to ascertain the role of histidine metabolism and potentially that of glutamine in colorectal cancer development is warranted.

Abstract Background Epidemiological studies of associations between metabolites and cancer risk have typically focused on specific cancer types separately. Here, we designed a multivariate pan-cancer analysis to identify metabolites potentially associated with multiple cancer types, while also allowing the investigation of cancer type-specific associations. Methods We analysed targeted metabolomics data available for 5828 matched case-control pairs from cancer-specific case-control studies on breast, colorectal, endometrial, gallbladder, kidney, localized and advanced prostate cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. From pre-diagnostic blood levels of an initial set of 117 metabolites, 33 cluster representatives of strongly correlated metabolites and 17 single metabolites were derived by hierarchical clustering. The mutually adjusted associations of the resulting 50 metabolites with cancer risk were examined in penalized conditional logistic regression models adjusted for body mass index, using the data-shared lasso penalty. Results Out of the 50 studied metabolites, (i) six were inversely associated with the risk of most cancer types: glutamine, butyrylcarnitine, lysophosphatidylcholine a C18:2, and three clusters of phosphatidylcholines (PCs); (ii) three were positively associated with most cancer types: proline, decanoylcarnitine, and one cluster of PCs; and (iii) 10 were specifically associated with particular cancer types, including histidine that was inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk and one cluster of sphingomyelins that was inversely associated with risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and positively with endometrial cancer risk. Conclusions These results could provide novel insights for the identification of pathways for cancer development, in particular those shared across different cancer types.

Abstract Background The role of elevated pre-diagnostic C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations on mortality in individuals with colorectal cancer (CRC) remains unclear. Methods We investigated the association between pre-diagnostic high-sensitivity CRP concentrations and CRP genetic variation associated with circulating CRP and CRC-specific and all-cause mortality based on data from 1,235 individuals with CRC within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. Results During a median follow-up of 9.3 years, 455 CRC-specific deaths were recorded, out of 590 deaths from all causes. Pre-diagnostic CRP concentrations were not associated with CRC-specific (hazard ratio, HR highest versus lowest quintile 0.92, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.66, 1.28) or all-cause mortality (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.68, 1.21). Genetic predisposition to higher CRP (weighted score based on alleles of four CRP SNPs associated with higher circulating CRP) was not significantly associated with CRC-specific mortality (HR per CRP-score unit 0.95, 95% CI 0.86, 1.05) or all-cause mortality (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.90, 1.07). Among four investigated CRP genetic variants, only SNP rs1205 was significantly associated with CRC-specific (comparing the CT and CC genotypes with TT genotype, HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.35, 0.83 and HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.38, 0.88, respectively) and all-cause mortality (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.40, 0.85 and 0.64, 95% CI 0.44, 0.92, respectively). Conclusions The results of this prospective cohort study do not support a role of pre-diagnostic CRP concentrations on mortality in individuals with CRC. The observed associations with rs1205 deserve further scientific attention.

BackgroundSelf-reported adherence to the Mediterranean diet has been modestly inversely associated with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in cohort studies. There is uncertainty about the validity and magnitude of this association due to subjective reporting of diet. The association has not been evaluated using an objectively measured biomarker of the Mediterranean diet.Methods and findingsWe derived a biomarker score based on 5 circulating carotenoids and 24 fatty acids that discriminated between the Mediterranean or habitual diet arms of a parallel design, 6-month partial-feeding randomised controlled trial (RCT) conducted between 2013 and 2014, the MedLey trial (128 participants out of 166 randomised). We applied this biomarker score in an observational study, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study, to assess the association of the score with T2D incidence over an average of 9.7 years of follow-up since the baseline (1991 to 1998). We included 22,202 participants, of whom 9,453 were T2D cases, with relevant biomarkers from an original case-cohort of 27,779 participants sampled from a cohort of 340,234 people. As a secondary measure of the Mediterranean diet, we used a score estimated from dietary-self report. Within the trial, the biomarker score discriminated well between the 2 arms; the cross-validated C-statistic was 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 0.94). The score was inversely associated with incident T2D in EPIC-InterAct: the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation of the score was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.77) following adjustment for sociodemographic, lifestyle and medical factors, and adiposity. In comparison, the HR per standard deviation of the self-reported Mediterranean diet was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.95). Assuming the score was causally associated with T2D, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet in Western European adults by 10 percentiles of the score was estimated to reduce the incidence of T2D by 11% (95% CI: 7% to 14%). The study limitations included potential measurement error in nutritional biomarkers, unclear specificity of the biomarker score to the Mediterranean diet, and possible residual confounding.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that objectively assessed adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with lower risk of T2D and that even modestly higher adherence may have the potential to reduce the population burden of T2D meaningfully.Trial registrationAustralian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12613000602729 https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=363860.

Abstract Background Body mass index (BMI) and cardiometabolic comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes have been studied as negative prognostic factors in cancer survival, but possible dependencies in the mechanisms underlying these associations remain largely unexplored. We analysed these associations in colorectal and breast cancer patients. Methods Based on repeated BMI assessments of cancer-free participants from four European countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study, individual BMI-trajectories reflecting predicted mean BMI between ages 20 to 50 years were estimated using a growth curve model. Participants with incident colorectal or breast cancer after the age of 50 years were included in the survival analysis to study the prognostic effect of mean BMI and cardiometabolic diseases (CMD) prior to cancer. CMD were defined as one or more chronic conditions among stroke, myocardial infarction, and type 2 diabetes. Hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) of mean BMI and CMD were derived using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression for mean BMI and CMD separately and both exposures combined, in subgroups of localised and advanced disease. Results In the total cohort of 159,045 participants, there were 1,045 and 1,620 eligible patients of colorectal and breast cancer. In colorectal cancer patients, a higher BMI (by 1 kg/m2) was associated with a 6% increase in risk of death (95% CI of HR: 1.02–1.10). The HR for CMD was 1.25 (95% CI: 0.97–1.61). The associations for both exposures were stronger in patients with localised colorectal cancer. In breast cancer patients, a higher BMI was associated with a 4% increase in risk of death (95% CI: 1.00–1.08). CMDs were associated with a 46% increase in risk of death (95% CI: 1.01–2.09). The estimates and CIs for BMI remained similar after adjustment for CMD and vice versa. Conclusions Our results suggest that cumulative exposure to higher BMI during early to mid-adulthood was associated with poorer survival in patients with breast and colorectal cancer, independent of CMD prior to cancer diagnosis. The association between a CMD diagnosis prior to cancer and survival in patients with breast and colorectal cancer was independent of BMI.

BackgroundThe Mediterranean diet (MD) has been proposed as a healthy diet with a potential to lower the incidence of several types of cancer, but there is no data regarding thyroid cancer (TC). We investigated the association between MD adherence, and its components, and the differentiated TC risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort.MethodsOver 450,000 men and women from nine European countries were followed up for a mean of 14.1 years, during which 712 differentiated TC cases were identified. Adherence to MD was estimated using the relative MD (rMED) score, an 18-point scale including alcohol, and the adapted rMED (arMED) score, a 16-point scale excluding alcohol. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounding factors.ResultsAdherence to the arMED score was not associated with the risk of differentiated TC (HRhigh vs. low adherence = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.70–1.25; p-trend 0.27), while a suggestive, but non-statistically significant inverse relationship was observed with rMED (HRhigh vs. low adherence = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.68–1.14; p-trend 0.17). Low meat (HRlow vs. high meat intake = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67–0.99; p-trend = 0.04) and moderate alcohol (HRmoderate vs. non−moderate intake = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.75–1.03) intake were related with lower differentiated TC risk.ConclusionsOur study shows that a high adherence to MD is not strongly related to differentiated TC risk, although further research is required to confirm the impact of MD and, especially, meat intake in TC risk.

Abstract Mammographic breast density (MBD) is a strong independent risk factor for breast cancer (BC). We designed a matched case–case study in the EPIC Florence cohort, to evaluate possible associations between the pre-diagnostic metabolomic profile and the risk of BC in high- versus low-MBD women who developed BC during the follow-up. A case–case design with 100 low-MBD (MBD ≤ 25%) and 100 high-MDB BC cases (MBD > 50%) was performed. Matching variables included age, year and type of mammographic examination. 1H NMR metabolomic spectra were available for 87 complete case–case sets. The conditional logistic analyses showed an inverse association between serum levels of alanine, leucine, tyrosine, valine, lactic acid, pyruvic acid, triglycerides lipid main fraction and 11 VLDL lipid subfractions and high-MBD cases. Acetic acid was directly associated with high-MBD cases. In models adjusted for confounding variables, tyrosine remained inversely associated with high-MBD cases while 3 VLDL subfractions of free cholesterol emerged as directly associated with high-MBD cases. A pathway analysis showed that the “phenylalanine, tyrosine and tryptophan pathway” emerged and persisted after applying the FDR procedure. The supervised OPLS-DA analysis revealed a slight but significant separation between high- and low-MBD cases. This case–case study suggested a possible role for pre-diagnostic levels of tyrosine in modulating the risk of BC in high- versus low-MBD women. Moreover, some differences emerged in the pre-diagnostic concentration of other metabolites as well in the metabolomic fingerprints among the two groups of patients.

Abstract Background Bilirubin, a byproduct of hemoglobin breakdown and purported anti-oxidant, is thought to be cancer preventive. We conducted complementary serological and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate whether alterations in circulating levels of bilirubin are associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We decided a priori to perform analyses separately in men and women based on suggestive evidence that associations may differ by sex. Methods In a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), pre-diagnostic unconjugated bilirubin (UCB, the main component of total bilirubin) concentrations were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography in plasma samples of 1386 CRC cases and their individually matched controls. Additionally, 115 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated (P

Abstract Background Although lifestyle factors have been studied in relation to individual non-communicable diseases (NCDs), their association with development of a subsequent NCD, defined as multimorbidity, has been scarcely investigated. The aim of this study was to investigate associations between five lifestyle factors and incident multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. Methods In this prospective cohort study, 291,778 participants (64% women) from seven European countries, mostly aged 43 to 58 years and free of cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and type 2 diabetes (T2D) at recruitment, were included. Incident multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases was defined as developing subsequently two diseases including first cancer at any site, CVD, and T2D in an individual. Multi-state modelling based on Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of developing cancer, CVD, or T2D, and subsequent transitions to multimorbidity, in relation to body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, adherence to the Mediterranean diet, and their combination as a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score. Cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) were estimated to compute 10-year absolute risks for transitions from healthy to cancer at any site, CVD (both fatal and non-fatal), or T2D, and to subsequent multimorbidity after each of the three NCDs. Results During a median follow-up of 11 years, 1910 men and 1334 women developed multimorbidity of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases. A higher HLI, reflecting healthy lifestyles, was strongly inversely associated with multimorbidity, with hazard ratios per 3-unit increment of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.81), 0.84 (0.79 to 0.90), and 0.82 (0.77 to 0.88) after cancer, CVD, and T2D, respectively. After T2D, the 10-year absolute risks of multimorbidity were 40% and 25% for men and women, respectively, with unhealthy lifestyle, and 30% and 18% for men and women with healthy lifestyles. Conclusion Pre-diagnostic healthy lifestyle behaviours were strongly inversely associated with the risk of cancer and cardiometabolic diseases, and with the prognosis of these diseases by reducing risk of multimorbidity.

Abstract Background Even though in situ breast cancer (BCIS) accounts for a large proportion of the breast cancers diagnosed, few studies have investigated potential risk factors for BCIS. Their results suggest that some established risk factors for invasive breast cancer have a similar impact on BCIS risk, but large population-based studies on lifestyle factors and BCIS risk are lacking. Thus, we investigated the association between lifestyle and BCIS risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Methods Lifestyle was operationalized by a score reflecting the adherence to the World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) cancer prevention recommendations. The recommendations utilized in these analyses were the ones pertinent to healthy body weight, physical activity, consumption of plant-based foods, energy-dense foods, red and processed meat, and sugary drinks and alcohol, as well as the recommendation on breastfeeding. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association between lifestyle score and BCIS risk. The results were presented as hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results After an overall median follow-up time of 14.9 years, 1277 BCIS cases were diagnosed. Greater adherence to the WCRF/AICR cancer prevention recommendations was not associated with BCIS risk (HR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.93–1.03; per one unit of increase; multivariable model). An inverse association between the lifestyle score and BCIS risk was observed in study centers, where participants were recruited mainly via mammographic screening and attended additional screening throughout follow-up (HR = 0.85, 95% CI 0.73–0.99), but not in the remaining ones (HR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.94–1.05). Conclusions While we did not observe an overall association between lifestyle and BCIS risk, our results indicate that lifestyle is associated with BCIS risk among women recruited via screening programs and with regular screening participation. This suggests that a true inverse association between lifestyle habits and BCIS risk in the overall cohort may have been masked by a lack of information on screening attendance. The potential inverse association between lifestyle and BCIS risk in our analyses is consistent with the inverse associations between lifestyle scores and breast cancer risk reported from previous studies.

Abstract Background Cancer Antigen 125 (CA125) is currently the best available ovarian cancer screening biomarker. However, CA125 has been limited by low sensitivity and specificity in part due to normal variation between individuals. Personal characteristics that influence CA125 could be used to improve its performance as screening biomarker. Methods We developed and validated linear and dichotomous (≥35 U/mL) circulating CA125 prediction models in postmenopausal women without ovarian cancer who participated in one of five large population-based studies: Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO, n = 26,981), European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC, n = 861), the Nurses’ Health Studies (NHS/NHSII, n = 81), and the New England Case Control Study (NEC, n = 923). The prediction models were developed using stepwise regression in PLCO and validated in EPIC, NHS/NHSII and NEC. Result The linear CA125 prediction model, which included age, race, body mass index (BMI), smoking status and duration, parity, hysterectomy, age at menopause, and duration of hormone therapy (HT), explained 5% of the total variance of CA125. The correlation between measured and predicted CA125 was comparable in PLCO testing dataset (r = 0.18) and external validation datasets (r = 0.14). The dichotomous CA125 prediction model included age, race, BMI, smoking status and duration, hysterectomy, time since menopause, and duration of HT with AUC of 0.64 in PLCO and 0.80 in validation dataset. Conclusions The linear prediction model explained a small portion of the total variability of CA125, suggesting the need to identify novel predictors of CA125. The dichotomous prediction model showed moderate discriminatory performance which validated well in independent dataset. Our dichotomous model could be valuable in identifying healthy women who may have elevated CA125 levels, which may contribute to reducing false positive tests using CA125 as screening biomarker.

Breast cancer in men is a rare and still poorly characterized disease. Inherited mutations in BRCA1, BRCA2 and PALB2 genes, as well as common polymorphisms, play a role in male breast cancer genetic predisposition. Male breast cancer is considered a hormone-dependent tumor specifically related to hyperestrogenism. Polymorphisms in genes involved in estrogen biosynthesis and metabolism pathways, such as CYP17A1 and CYP1B1, have been associated with breast cancer risk. Here, we aimed to investigate the role of CYP17A1 and CYP1B1 polymorphisms in male breast cancer risk. A series of 597 male breast cancer cases and 1022 male controls, recruited within the Italian Multicenter Study on male breast cancer, was genotyped for CYP17A1 rs743572, CYP1B1 rs1056836 and rs1800440 polymorphisms by allelic discrimination real-time PCR with TaqMan probes. Associations with male breast cancer risk were estimated using logistic regression. No statistically significant associations between male breast ca ncer risk and the three analyzed polymorphisms emerged. Similar results were obtained also when BRCA1/2 mutational status was considered. No significant differences in t he distribution of the genotypes according to estrogen receptor status emerged. In conclusion, our study, based on a large series of male breast cancer cases, is likely to exclude a relevant role of CYP17A1 and CYP1B1 polymorphisms in male breast cancer predisposition. Overall, these results add new data to the increasing evidence that polymorphisms in these genes may not be associated with breast cancer risk.

Objectives: To characterize the impact of PCB exposure on DNA methylation in peripheral blood leucocytes and to evaluate the corresponding changes in relation to possible health effects, with a focus on B-cell lymphoma. Methods: We conducted an epigenome-wide association study on 611 adults free of diagnosed disease, living in Italy and Sweden, in whom we also measured plasma concentrations of 6 PCB congeners, DDE and hexachlorobenzene. Results: We identified 650 CpG sites whose methylation correlates strongly (FDR

Experimental evidence has implicated genotoxic Escherichia coli (E. coli) and enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis (ETBF) in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, evidence from epidemiological studies is sparse. We therefore assessed the association of serological markers of E. coli and ETBF exposure with odds of developing CRC in the European Prospective Investigation into Nutrition and Cancer (EPIC) study. Serum samples of incident CRC cases and matched controls (n = 442 pairs) were analyzed for immunoglobulin (Ig) A and G antibody responses to seven E. coli proteins and two isoforms of the ETBF toxin via multiplex serology. Multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression analyses were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association of sero-positivity to E. coli and ETBF with CRC. The IgA-positivity of any of the tested E. coli antigens was associated with higher odds of developing CRC (OR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.05–1.91). Dual-positivity for both IgA and IgG to E. coli and ETBF was associated with >1.7-fold higher odds of developing CRC, with a significant association only for IgG (OR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.04, 2.94). This association was more pronounced when restricted to the proximal colon cancers (OR: 2.62; 95% CI: 1.09, 6.29) compared to those of the distal colon (OR: 1.24; 95% CI: 0.51, 3.00) (pheterogeneity = 0.095). Sero-positivity to E. coli and ETBF was associated with CRC development, suggesting that co-infection of these bacterial species may contribute to colorectal carcinogenesis. These findings warrant further exploration in larger prospective studies and within different population groups.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disease which is manifested by a progressive and irreversible decline of cognition, memory loss, a shortened attention span, and changes in personality. Aging and genetic pre-dispositions, particularly the presence of a specific form of apolipoprotein E (APOE), are main risk factors of sporadic AD; however, a large body of evidence has shown that multiple environmental factors, including exposure to toxic metals, increase the risk for late onset AD. Lead (Pb) and cadmium (Cd) are ubiquitous toxic metals with a wide range of applications resulting in global distribution in the environment and exposure of all living organisms on earth. In addition to being classified as carcinogenic (Cd) and possibly carcinogenic (Pb) to humans by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, both compounds disrupt metal homeostasis and can cause toxic responses at the cellular and organismal levels. Pb toxicity targets the central nervous system and evidence for that has emerged also for Cd. Recent epidemiological studies show that both metals possibly are etiological factors of multiple neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer's disease (AD). To further explore the association between metal exposure and AD risk we applied whole transcriptome gene expression analysis in peripheral blood leukocytes (PBLs) from 632 subjects of the general population, taken from the EnviroGenomarkers project. We used linear mixed effect models to associate metal exposure to gene expression after adjustment for gender, age, BMI, smoking, and alcohol consumption. For Pb exposure only few associations were identified, including a downregulation of the human eukaryotic translation initiation factor 5 (eIF5). In contrast, Cd exposure, particularly in males, revealed a much stronger transcriptomic response, featuring multiple pathways related to pathomolecular mechanisms of AD, such as endocytosis, neutrophil degranulation, and Interleukin−7 signaling. A gender stratified analysis revealed that the Cd responses were male-specific and included a downregulation of the APOE gene in men. This exploratory study revealed novel hypothetical findings which might contribute to the understanding of the neurotoxic effects of chronic Pb and Cd exposure and possibly improve our knowledge on the molecular mechanisms linking metal exposure to AD risk.

Pooling metabolomics data across studies is often desirable to increase the statistical power of the analysis. However, this can raise methodological challenges as several preanalytical and analytical factors could introduce differences in measured concentrations and variability between datasets. Specifically, different studies may use variable sample types (e.g., serum versus plasma) collected, treated, and stored according to different protocols, and assayed in different laboratories using different instruments. To address these issues, a new pipeline was developed to normalize and pool metabolomics data through a set of sequential steps: (i) exclusions of the least informative observations and metabolites and removal of outliers; imputation of missing data; (ii) identification of the main sources of variability through principal component partial R-square (PC-PR2) analysis; (iii) application of linear mixed models to remove unwanted variability, including samples’ originating study and batch, and preserve biological variations while accounting for potential differences in the residual variances across studies. This pipeline was applied to targeted metabolomics data acquired using Biocrates AbsoluteIDQ kits in eight case-control studies nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Comprehensive examination of metabolomics measurements indicated that the pipeline improved the comparability of data across the studies. Our pipeline can be adapted to normalize other molecular data, including biomarkers as well as proteomics data, and could be used for pooling molecular datasets, for example in international consortia, to limit biases introduced by inter-study variability. This versatility of the pipeline makes our work of potential interest to molecular epidemiologists.

Despite some epidemiological evidence on the protective effects of polyphenol intake on epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) risk from case-control studies, the evidence is scarce from prospective studies and non-existent for several polyphenol classes. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the associations between the intake of total, classes and subclasses of polyphenols and EOC risk in a large prospective study. The study was conducted in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, which included 309,129 adult women recruited mostly from the general population. Polyphenol intake was assessed through validated country-specific dietary questionnaires and the Phenol-Explorer database. During a mean follow-up of 14 years, 1469 first incident EOC cases (including 806 serous, 129 endometrioid, 102 mucinous, and 67 clear cell tumours) were identified. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, the hazard ratio in the highest quartile of total polyphenol intake compared with the lowest quartile (HRQ4vsQ1) was 1.14 (95% CI 0.94–1.39; p-trend = 0.11). Similarly, the intake of most classes and subclasses of polyphenols were not related to either overall EOC risk or any EOC subtype. A borderline statistically significant positive association was observed between phenolic acid intake (HRQ4vsQ1 = 1.20, 95% CI 1.01–1.43; p-trend = 0.02) and EOC risk, especially for the serous subtype and in women with obesity, although these associations did not exceed the Bonferroni correction threshold. The current results do not support any association between polyphenol intake and EOC in our large European prospective study. Results regarding phenolic acid intake need further investigation

Abstract Background Accumulating evidence suggests that individual circulating saturated fatty acids (SFAs) are heterogeneous in their associations with cardio-metabolic diseases, but evidence about associations of SFAs with metabolic markers of different pathogenic pathways is limited. We aimed to examine the associations between plasma phospholipid SFAs and the metabolic markers of lipid, hepatic, glycaemic and inflammation pathways. Methods We measured nine individual plasma phospholipid SFAs and derived three SFA groups (odd-chain: C15:0 + C17:0, even-chain: C14:0 + C16:0 + C18:0, and very-long-chain: C20:0 + C22:0 + C23:0 + C24:0) in individuals from the subcohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study across eight European countries. Using linear regression in 15,919 subcohort members, adjusted for potential confounders and corrected for multiple testing, we examined cross-sectional associations of SFAs with 13 metabolic markers. Multiplicative interactions of the three SFA groups with pre-specified factors, including body mass index (BMI) and alcohol consumption, were tested. Results Higher levels of odd-chain SFA group were associated with lower levels of major lipids (total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides, apolipoprotein A-1 (ApoA1), apolipoprotein B (ApoB)) and hepatic markers (alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT)). Higher even-chain SFA group levels were associated with higher levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), TC/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio, triglycerides, ApoB, ApoB/A1 ratio, ALT, AST, GGT and CRP, and lower levels of HDL-C and ApoA1. Very-long-chain SFA group levels showed inverse associations with triglycerides, ApoA1 and GGT, and positive associations with TC, LDL-C, TC/HDL-C, ApoB and ApoB/A1. Associations were generally stronger at higher levels of BMI or alcohol consumption. Conclusions Subtypes of SFAs are associated in a differential way with metabolic markers of lipid metabolism, liver function and chronic inflammation, suggesting that odd-chain SFAs are associated with lower metabolic risk and even-chain SFAs with adverse metabolic risk, whereas mixed findings were obtained for very-long-chain SFAs. The clinical and biochemical implications of these findings may vary by adiposity and alcohol intake.

Abstract Background B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a common type of adult leukemia. It often follows an indolent course and is preceded by monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis, an asymptomatic condition, however it is not known what causes subjects with this condition to progress to CLL. Hence the discovery of prediagnostic markers has the potential to improve the identification of subjects likely to develop CLL and may also provide insights into the pathogenesis of the disease of potential clinical relevance. Results We employed peripheral blood buffy coats of 347 apparently healthy subjects, of whom 28 were diagnosed with CLL 2.0–15.7 years after enrollment, to derive for the first time genome-wide DNA methylation, as well as gene and miRNA expression, profiles associated with the risk of future disease. After adjustment for white blood cell composition, we identified 722 differentially methylated CpG sites and 15 differentially expressed genes (Bonferroni-corrected p

Abstract Background The relationship between body size and prostate cancer risk, and in particular risk by tumour characteristics, is not clear because most studies have not differentiated between high-grade or advanced stage tumours, but rather have assessed risk with a combined category of aggressive disease. We investigated the association of height and adiposity with incidence of and death from prostate cancer in 141,896 men in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Methods Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). After an average of 13.9 years of follow-up, there were 7024 incident prostate cancers and 934 prostate cancer deaths. Results Height was not associated with total prostate cancer risk. Subgroup analyses showed heterogeneity in the association with height by tumour grade (P heterogeneity = 0.002), with a positive association with risk for high-grade but not low-intermediate-grade disease (HR for high-grade disease tallest versus shortest fifth of height, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.18–2.03). Greater height was also associated with a higher risk for prostate cancer death (HR = 1.43, 1.14–1.80). Body mass index (BMI) was significantly inversely associated with total prostate cancer, but there was evidence of heterogeneity by tumour grade (P heterogeneity = 0.01; HR = 0.89, 0.79–0.99 for low-intermediate grade and HR = 1.32, 1.01–1.72 for high-grade prostate cancer) and stage (P heterogeneity = 0.01; HR = 0.86, 0.75–0.99 for localised stage and HR = 1.11, 0.92–1.33 for advanced stage). BMI was positively associated with prostate cancer death (HR = 1.35, 1.09–1.68). The results for waist circumference were generally similar to those for BMI, but the associations were slightly stronger for high-grade (HR = 1.43, 1.07–1.92) and fatal prostate cancer (HR = 1.55, 1.23–1.96). Conclusions The findings from this large prospective study show that men who are taller and who have greater adiposity have an elevated risk of high-grade prostate cancer and prostate cancer death.

Abstract Background Little is known about how pre-diagnostic metabolites in blood relate to risk of prostate cancer. We aimed to investigate the prospective association between plasma metabolite concentrations and risk of prostate cancer overall, and by time to diagnosis and tumour characteristics, and risk of death from prostate cancer. Methods In a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, pre-diagnostic plasma concentrations of 122 metabolites (including acylcarnitines, amino acids, biogenic amines, glycerophospholipids, hexose and sphingolipids) were measured using targeted mass spectrometry (AbsoluteIDQ p180 Kit) and compared between 1077 prostate cancer cases and 1077 matched controls. Risk of prostate cancer associated with metabolite concentrations was estimated by multi-variable conditional logistic regression, and multiple testing was accounted for by using a false discovery rate controlling procedure. Results Seven metabolite concentrations, i.e. acylcarnitine C18:1, amino acids citrulline and trans-4-hydroxyproline, glycerophospholipids PC aa C28:1, PC ae C30:0 and PC ae C30:2, and sphingolipid SM (OH) C14:1, were associated with prostate cancer (p

Abstract Background Leakage of bacterial products across the gut barrier may play a role in liver diseases which often precede the development of liver cancer. However, human studies, particularly from prospective settings, are lacking. Methods We used a case-control study design nested within a large prospective cohort to assess the association between circulating levels of anti-lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and anti-flagellin immunoglobulin A (IgA) and G (IgG) (reflecting long-term exposures to LPS and flagellin, respectively) and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. A total of 139 men and women diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma between 1992 and 2010 were matched to 139 control subjects. Multivariable rate ratios (RRs), including adjustment for potential confounders, hepatitis B/C positivity, and degree of liver dysfunction, were calculated with conditional logistic regression. Results Antibody response to LPS and flagellin was associated with a statistically significant increase in the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (highest vs. lowest quartile: RR = 11.76, 95% confidence interval = 1.70–81.40; P trend = 0.021). This finding did not vary substantially by time from enrollment to diagnosis, and did not change after adjustment for chronic infection with hepatitis B and C viruses. Conclusions These novel findings, based on exposures up to several years prior to diagnosis, support a role for gut-derived bacterial products in hepatocellular carcinoma development. Further study into the role of gut barrier failure and exposure to bacterial products in liver diseases is warranted.

Inherited mutations in BRCA1, and, mainly, BRCA2 genes are associated with increased risk of male breast cancer (MBC). Mutations in PALB2 and CHEK2 genes may also increase MBC risk. Overall, these genes are functionally linked to DNA repair pathways, highlighting the central role of genome maintenance in MBC genetic predisposition. MUTYH is a DNA repair gene whose biallelic germline variants cause MUTYH-associated polyposis (MAP) syndrome. Monoallelic MUTYH variants have been reported in families with both colorectal and breast cancer and there is some evidence on increased breast cancer risk in women with monoallelic variants. In this study, we aimed to investigate whether MUTYH germline variants may contribute to MBC susceptibility. To this aim, we screened the entire coding region of MUTYH in 503 BRCA1/2 mutation negative MBC cases by multigene panel analysis. Moreover, we genotyped selected variants, including p.Tyr179Cys, p.Gly396Asp, p.Arg245His, p.Gly264Trpfs*7, and p.Gln338His, in a total of 560 MBC cases and 1,540 male controls. Biallelic MUTYH pathogenic variants (p.Tyr179Cys/p.Arg241Trp) were identified in one MBC patient with phenotypic manifestation of adenomatous polyposis. Monoallelic pathogenic variants were identified in 14 (2.5%) MBC patients, in particular, p.Tyr179Cys was detected in seven cases, p.Gly396Asp in five cases, p.Arg245His and p.Gly264Trpfs*7 in one case each. The majority of MBC cases with MUTYH pathogenic variants had family history of cancer including breast, colorectal, and gastric cancers. In the case-control study, an association between the variant p.Tyr179Cys and increased MBC risk emerged by multivariate analysis [odds ratio (OR) = 4.54; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17–17.58; p = 0.028]. Overall, our study suggests that MUTYH pathogenic variants may have a role in MBC and, in particular, the p.Tyr179Cys variant may be a low/moderate penetrance risk allele for MBC. Moreover, our results suggest that MBC may be part of the tumor spectrum associated with MAP syndrome, with implication in the clinical management of patients and their relatives. Large-scale collaborative studies are needed to validate these findings.

BackgroundCombinations of multiple fatty acids may influence cardiometabolic risk more than single fatty acids. The association of a combination of fatty acids with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) has not been evaluated.Methods and findingsWe measured plasma phospholipid fatty acids by gas chromatography in 27,296 adults, including 12,132 incident cases of T2D, over the follow-up period between baseline (1991-1998) and 31 December 2007 in 8 European countries in EPIC-InterAct, a nested case-cohort study. The first principal component derived by principal component analysis of 27 individual fatty acids (mole percentage) was the main exposure (subsequently called the fatty acid pattern score [FA-pattern score]). The FA-pattern score was partly characterised by high concentrations of linoleic acid, stearic acid, odd-chain fatty acids, and very-long-chain saturated fatty acids and low concentrations of γ-linolenic acid, palmitic acid, and long-chain monounsaturated fatty acids, and it explained 16.1% of the overall variability of the 27 fatty acids. Based on country-specific Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random-effects meta-analysis, the FA-pattern score was associated with lower incident T2D. Comparing the top to the bottom fifth of the score, the hazard ratio of incident T2D was 0.23 (95% CI 0.19-0.29) adjusted for potential confounders and 0.37 (95% CI 0.27-0.50) further adjusted for metabolic risk factors. The association changed little after adjustment for individual fatty acids or fatty acid subclasses. In cross-sectional analyses relating the FA-pattern score to metabolic, genetic, and dietary factors, the FA-pattern score was inversely associated with adiposity, triglycerides, liver enzymes, C-reactive protein, a genetic score representing insulin resistance, and dietary intakes of soft drinks and alcohol and was positively associated with high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol and intakes of polyunsaturated fat, dietary fibre, and coffee (p < 0.05 each). Limitations include potential measurement error in the fatty acids and other model covariates and possible residual confounding.ConclusionsA combination of individual fatty acids, characterised by high concentrations of linoleic acid, odd-chain fatty acids, and very long-chain fatty acids, was associated with lower incidence of T2D. The specific fatty acid pattern may be influenced by metabolic, genetic, and dietary factors.

BackgroundWhether and how n-3 and n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) are related to type 2 diabetes (T2D) is debated. Objectively measured plasma PUFAs can help to clarify these associations.Methods and findingsPlasma phospholipid PUFAs were measured by gas chromatography among 12,132 incident T2D cases and 15,919 subcohort participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct study across eight European countries. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression and pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. We also systematically reviewed published prospective studies on circulating PUFAs and T2D risk and pooled the quantitative evidence for comparison with results from EPIC-InterAct. In EPIC-InterAct, among long-chain n-3 PUFAs, α-linolenic acid (ALA) was inversely associated with T2D (HR per standard deviation [SD] 0.93; 95% CI 0.88-0.98), but eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) were not significantly associated. Among n-6 PUFAs, linoleic acid (LA) (0.80; 95% CI 0.77-0.83) and eicosadienoic acid (EDA) (0.89; 95% CI 0.85-0.94) were inversely related, and arachidonic acid (AA) was not significantly associated, while significant positive associations were observed with γ-linolenic acid (GLA), dihomo-GLA, docosatetraenoic acid (DTA), and docosapentaenoic acid (n6-DPA), with HRs between 1.13 to 1.46 per SD. These findings from EPIC-InterAct were broadly similar to comparative findings from summary estimates from up to nine studies including between 71 to 2,499 T2D cases. Limitations included potential residual confounding and the inability to distinguish between dietary and metabolic influences on plasma phospholipid PUFAs.ConclusionsThese large-scale findings suggest an important inverse association of circulating plant-origin n-3 PUFA (ALA) but no convincing association of marine-derived n3 PUFAs (EPA and DHA) with T2D. Moreover, they highlight that the most abundant n6-PUFA (LA) is inversely associated with T2D. The detection of associations with previously less well-investigated PUFAs points to the importance of considering individual fatty acids rather than focusing on fatty acid class.

Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI) in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre) was 0.75 (0.72-0.79) to 0.88 (0.84-0.92) for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69-0.83) to 0.84 (0.76-0.92) for CVD and 0.78 (0.73-0.83) to 0.91 (0.85-0.97) for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors.

BACKGROUND:In addition to HPV, high parity and hormonal contraceptives have been associated with cervical cancer (CC). However, most of the evidence comes from retrospective case-control studies. The aim of this study is to prospectively evaluate associations between hormonal factors and risk of developing cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3)/carcinoma in situ (CIS) and invasive cervical cancer (ICC). METHODS AND FINDINGS:We followed a cohort of 308,036 women recruited in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study. At enrollment, participants completed a questionnaire and provided serum. After a 9-year median follow-up, 261 ICC and 804 CIN3/CIS cases were reported. In a nested case-control study, the sera from 609 cases and 1,218 matched controls were tested for L1 antibodies against HPV types 11,16,18,31,33,35,45,52,58, and antibodies against Chlamydia trachomatis and Human herpesvirus 2. Multivariate analyses were performed to estimate hazard ratios (HR), odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). The cohort analysis showed that number of full-term pregnancies was positively associated with CIN3/CIS risk (p-trend = 0.03). Duration of oral contraceptives use was associated with a significantly increased risk of both CIN3/CIS and ICC (HR = 1.6 and HR = 1.8 respectively for ≥ 15 years versus never use). Ever use of menopausal hormone therapy was associated with a reduced risk of ICC (HR = 0.5, 95%CI: 0.4-0.8). A non-significant reduced risk of ICC with ever use of intrauterine devices (IUD) was found in the nested case-control analysis (OR = 0.6). Analyses restricted to all cases and HPV seropositive controls yielded similar results, revealing a significant inverse association with IUD for combined CIN3/CIS and ICC (OR = 0.7). CONCLUSIONS:Even though HPV is the necessary cause of CC, our results suggest that several hormonal factors are risk factors for cervical carcinogenesis. Adherence to current cervical cancer screening guidelines should minimize the increased risk of CC associated with these hormonal risk factors.

BackgroundUnderstanding of the genetic basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has progressed rapidly, but the interactions between common genetic variants and lifestyle risk factors have not been systematically investigated in studies with adequate statistical power. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the combined effects of genetic and lifestyle factors on risk of T2D in order to inform strategies for prevention.Methods and findingsThe InterAct study includes 12,403 incident T2D cases and a representative sub-cohort of 16,154 individuals from a cohort of 340,234 European participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We studied the combined effects of an additive genetic T2D risk score and modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors using Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods. The effect of the genetic score was significantly greater in younger individuals (p for interaction = 1.20×10-4). Relative genetic risk (per standard deviation [4.4 risk alleles]) was also larger in participants who were leaner, both in terms of body mass index (p for interaction = 1.50×10-3) and waist circumference (p for interaction = 7.49×10-9). Examination of absolute risks by strata showed the importance of obesity for T2D risk. The 10-y cumulative incidence of T2D rose from 0.25% to 0.89% across extreme quartiles of the genetic score in normal weight individuals, compared to 4.22% to 7.99% in obese individuals. We detected no significant interactions between the genetic score and sex, diabetes family history, physical activity, or dietary habits assessed by a Mediterranean diet score.ConclusionsThe relative effect of a T2D genetic risk score is greater in younger and leaner participants. However, this sub-group is at low absolute risk and would not be a logical target for preventive interventions. The high absolute risk associated with obesity at any level of genetic risk highlights the importance of universal rather than targeted approaches to lifestyle intervention.

BACKGROUND:Compared to food patterns, nutrient patterns have been rarely used particularly at international level. We studied, in the context of a multi-center study with heterogeneous data, the methodological challenges regarding pattern analyses. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We identified nutrient patterns from food frequency questionnaires (FFQ) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study and used 24-hour dietary recall (24-HDR) data to validate and describe the nutrient patterns and their related food sources. Associations between lifestyle factors and the nutrient patterns were also examined. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied on 23 nutrients derived from country-specific FFQ combining data from all EPIC centers (N = 477,312). Harmonized 24-HDRs available for a representative sample of the EPIC populations (N = 34,436) provided accurate mean group estimates of nutrients and foods by quintiles of pattern scores, presented graphically. An overall PCA combining all data captured a good proportion of the variance explained in each EPIC center. Four nutrient patterns were identified explaining 67% of the total variance: Principle component (PC) 1 was characterized by a high contribution of nutrients from plant food sources and a low contribution of nutrients from animal food sources; PC2 by a high contribution of micro-nutrients and proteins; PC3 was characterized by polyunsaturated fatty acids and vitamin D; PC4 was characterized by calcium, proteins, riboflavin, and phosphorus. The nutrients with high loadings on a particular pattern as derived from country-specific FFQ also showed high deviations in their mean EPIC intakes by quintiles of pattern scores when estimated from 24-HDR. Center and energy intake explained most of the variability in pattern scores. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE:The use of 24-HDR enabled internal validation and facilitated the interpretation of the nutrient patterns derived from FFQs in term of food sources. These outcomes open research opportunities and perspectives of using nutrient patterns in future studies particularly at international level.

To examine the validity of the Recent Physical Activity Questionnaire (RPAQ) which assesses physical activity (PA) in 4 domains (leisure, work, commuting, home) during past month.580 men and 1343 women from 10 European countries attended 2 visits at which PA energy expenditure (PAEE), time at moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and sedentary time were measured using individually-calibrated combined heart-rate and movement sensing. At the second visit, RPAQ was administered electronically. Validity was assessed using agreement analysis.RPAQ significantly underestimated PAEE in women [median(IQR): 34.9 (22.3, 52.8) vs. 40.6 (32.4, 50.9) kJ/kg/day, 95%LoA: -44.4, 66.1 kJ/kg/day) and overestimated PAEE in men [45.9 (30.6, 71.1) vs. 45.5 (34.1, 57.6) kJ/kg/day, 95%LoA: -44.8, 102.6 kJ/kg/day]. Using individualised definition of 1MET, RPAQ significantly underestimated MVPA in women [median(IQR): 63.7 (30.5, 126.9) vs. 73.6 (47.8, 107.2) min/day, 95%LoA: -127.4, 311.9 min/day] and overestimated MVPA in men [90.0 (42.3, 188.6) vs. 83.3 (55.1, 125.0) min/day, 95%LoA: -134.8, 427.3 min/day]. Correlations (95%CI) between subjective and objective estimates were statistically significant [PAEE: women, rho = 0.20 (0.15-0.26); men, rho = 0.37 (0.30-0.44); MVPA: women, rho = 0.18 (0.13-0.24); men, rho = 0.31 (0.24-0.38)]. When using non-individualised definition of 1MET (3.5 mlO2/kg/min), MVPA was substantially overestimated (16 min/day, and 32 min/day in women and men, respectively). Revisiting occupational intensity assumptions in questionnaire estimation algorithms with occupational group-level empirical distributions reduced median PAEE-bias in manual (38.8 kJ/kg/day vs. 6.8 kJ/kg/day, p

Prospective studies have consistently reported lower colorectal cancer risks associated with higher intakes of total dairy products, total milk and dietary calcium. However, less is known about whether the inverse associations vary for individual dairy products with differing fat contents.In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), we investigated the associations between intakes of total milk and milk subtypes (whole-fat, semi-skimmed and skimmed), yoghurt, cheese, and dietary calcium with colorectal cancer risk amongst 477,122 men and women. Dietary questionnaires were administered at baseline. Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for relevant confounding variables.During the mean 11 years of follow-up, 4,513 incident cases of colorectal cancer occurred. After multivariable adjustments, total milk consumption was inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk (HR per 200 g/day 0.93, 95% CI: 0.89-0.98). Similar inverse associations were observed for whole-fat (HR per 200 g/day 0.90, 95% CI: 0.82-0.99) and skimmed milk (HR per 200 g/day 0.90, 95% CI: 0.79-1.02) in the multivariable models. Inverse associations were observed for cheese and yoghurt in the categorical models; although in the linear models, these associations were non-significant. Dietary calcium was inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk (HR per 200 mg/day 0.95, 95% CI: 0.91-0.99); this association was limited to dairy sources of calcium only (HR per 200 mg/day 0.95, 95% CI: 0.91-0.99), with no association observed for non-dairy calcium sources (HR per 200 mg/day 1.00, 95% CI: 0.81-1.24).Our results strengthen the evidence for a possible protective role of dairy products on colorectal cancer risk. The inverse associations we observed did not differ by the fat content of the dairy products considered.

BACKGROUND: Cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) are hypothesised to be risk factors for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), a group of haematological malignancies with a suspected environmental aetiology. Within the EnviroGenoMarkers study we utilised pre-diagnostic erythrocyte concentrations of Cd and Pb to determine whether exposure was associated with risk of B-cell NHL and multiple myeloma. METHODS: 194 incident cases of B-cell NHL and 76 cases of multiple myeloma diagnosed between 1990 and 2006 were identified from two existing cohorts; EPIC-Italy and the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study. Cases were matched to healthy controls by centre, age, gender and date of blood collection. Cd and Pb were measured in blood samples provided at recruitment using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Logistic regression was applied to assess the association with risk. Analyses were stratified by cohort and gender and by subtype where possible. RESULTS: There was little evidence of an increased risk of B-cell NHL or multiple myeloma with exposure to Cd (B-cell NHL: OR 1.09 95%CI 0.61, 1.93, MM: OR 1.16 95% CI: 0.40, 3.40 ) or Pb (B-cell NHL: 0.93 95% CI 0.43, 2.02, multiple myeloma: OR 1.63 95%CI 0.45, 5.94) in the total population when comparing the highest to the lowest quartile of exposure. However, gender and cohort specific differences in results were observed. In females the risk of B-cell NHL was more than doubled in those with a body burden of Cd >1 µg/L (OR 2.20 95%CI; 1.04, 4.65). CONCLUSIONS: This nested case-control study does not support a consistent positive association between Cd or Pb and NHL, but there is some indication of a gender specific effect suggesting further research is warranted.

BACKGROUND:The effect of the macronutrient composition of the usual diet on long term weight maintenance remains controversial. METHODS:373,803 subjects aged 25-70 years were recruited in 10 European countries (1992-2000) in the PANACEA project of the EPIC cohort. Diet was assessed at baseline using country-specific validated questionnaires and weight and height were measured at baseline and self-reported at follow-up in most centers. The association between weight change after 5 years of follow-up and the iso-energetic replacement of 5% of energy from one macronutrient by 5% of energy from another macronutrient was assessed using multivariate linear mixed-models. The risk of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years was investigated using multivariate Poisson regressions stratified according to initial Body Mass Index. RESULTS:A higher proportion of energy from fat at the expense of carbohydrates was not significantly associated with weight change after 5 years. However, a higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of fat was positively associated with weight gain. A higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of carbohydrates was also positively associated with weight gain, especially when carbohydrates were rich in fibre. The association between percentage of energy from protein and weight change was slightly stronger in overweight participants, former smokers, participants ≥60 years old, participants underreporting their energy intake and participants with a prudent dietary pattern. Compared to diets with no more than 14% of energy from protein, diets with more than 22% of energy from protein were associated with a 23-24% higher risk of becoming overweight or obese in normal weight and overweight subjects at baseline. CONCLUSION:Our results show that participants consuming an amount of protein above the protein intake recommended by the American Diabetes Association may experience a higher risk of becoming overweight or obese during adult life.

We developed an absolute risk model to identify individuals in the general population at elevated risk of pancreatic cancer.Using data on 3,349 cases and 3,654 controls from the PanScan Consortium, we developed a relative risk model for men and women of European ancestry based on non-genetic and genetic risk factors for pancreatic cancer. We estimated absolute risks based on these relative risks and population incidence rates.Our risk model included current smoking (multivariable adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval: 2.20 [1.84-2.62]), heavy alcohol use (>3 drinks/day) (OR: 1.45 [1.19-1.76]), obesity (body mass index >30 kg/m(2)) (OR: 1.26 [1.09-1.45]), diabetes >3 years (nested case-control OR: 1.57 [1.13-2.18], case-control OR: 1.80 [1.40-2.32]), family history of pancreatic cancer (OR: 1.60 [1.20-2.12]), non-O ABO genotype (AO vs. OO genotype) (OR: 1.23 [1.10-1.37]) to (BB vs. OO genotype) (OR 1.58 [0.97-2.59]), rs3790844(chr1q32.1) (OR: 1.29 [1.19-1.40]), rs401681(5p15.33) (OR: 1.18 [1.10-1.26]) and rs9543325(13q22.1) (OR: 1.27 [1.18-1.36]). The areas under the ROC curve for risk models including only non-genetic factors, only genetic factors, and both non-genetic and genetic factors were 58%, 57% and 61%, respectively. We estimate that fewer than 3/1,000 U.S. non-Hispanic whites have more than a 5% predicted lifetime absolute risk.Although absolute risk modeling using established risk factors may help to identify a group of individuals at higher than average risk of pancreatic cancer, the immediate clinical utility of our model is limited. However, a risk model can increase awareness of the various risk factors for pancreatic cancer, including modifiable behaviors.

A few studies have evaluated the association between diet and mammographic breast density (MBD) and results are inconsistent. MBD, a well-recognized risk factor for breast cancer, has been proposed as a marker of cumulative exposure to hormones and growth factors. Diets with a high glycemic index (GI) or glycemic load (GL) may increase breast cancer risk, via an effect on the insulin-like growth factor axis. We have investigated the association between carbohydrate intake, GI, GL and MBD in a prospective study. We identified a large series of women, in the frame of the EPIC-Florence cohort, with a mammogram taken five years after enrolment, when detailed information on dietary and lifestyle habits and anthropometric measurements had been collected. Mammograms have been retrieved (1,668, 83%) and MBD assessed according to Wolfe's classification. We compared women with high MBD (P2+DY Wolfe's categories) with those with low MBD (N1+P1) through logistic models adjusted for age, education, body mass index, menopause, number of children, breast feeding, physical activity, non-alcohol energy, fibers, saturated fat and alcohol. A direct association between GL and high MBD emerged in the highest quintile of intake in comparison with the lowest quintile (OR = 1.73, 95%CI 1.13-2.67, p for trend = 0.048) while no association with glycemic index was evident. These results were confirmed after exclusion of women reporting to be on a diet or affected with diabetes, and when Hormone Replacement Therapy at the date of mammographic examination used to assess MBD was considered. The effect was particularly evident among leaner women, although no interaction was found. A positive association was suggested for increasing simple sugar and total carbohydrates intakes limited to the highest quintiles. In this Italian population we observed an association between glycemic load, total and rapidly absorbed carbohydrates and high MBD. These novel results warrant further investigations.

BACKGROUND:Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS:We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS:Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION:The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

BackgroundWaist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI).Methods and findingsThe prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women).ConclusionsWC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.

The evidence that individual dietary and lifestyle factors influence a person's weight and waist circumference is well established; however their combined impact is less well documented. Therefore, we investigated the combined effect of physical activity, nutrition and smoking status on prospective gain in body weight and waist circumference.We used data of the prospective EPIC-PANACEA study. Between 1992 and 2000, 325,537 participants (94,445 men and 231,092 women, aged between 25-70) were recruited from nine European countries. Participants were categorised into two groups (positive or negative health behaviours) for each of the following being physically active, adherent to a healthy (Mediterranean not including alcohol) diet, and never-smoking for a total score ranging from zero to three. Anthropometric measures were taken at baseline and were mainly self-reported after a medium follow-up time of 5 years.Mixed-effects linear regression models adjusted for age, educational level, alcohol consumption, baseline body mass index and follow-up time showed that men and women who reported to be physically active, never-smoking and adherent to the Mediterranean diet gained over a 5-year period 537 (95% CI -706, -368) and 200 (-478, -87) gram less weight and 0.95 (-1.27, -0.639) and 0.99 (-1.29, -0.69) cm less waist circumference, respectively, compared to participants with zero healthy behaviours.The combination of positive health behaviours was associated with significantly lower weight and waist circumference gain.

The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) is a long-term, multi-centric prospective study in Europe investigating the relationships between cancer and nutrition. This study has served as a basis for a number of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) and other types of genetic analyses. Over a period of 5 years, 52,256 EPIC DNA samples have been extracted using an automated DNA extraction platform. Here we have evaluated the pre-analytical factors affecting DNA yield, including anthropometric, epidemiological and technical factors such as center of subject recruitment, age, gender, body-mass index, disease case or control status, tobacco consumption, number of aliquots of buffy coat used for DNA extraction, extraction machine or procedure, DNA quantification method, degree of haemolysis and variations in the timing of sample processing. We show that the largest significant variations in DNA yield were observed with degree of haemolysis and with center of subject recruitment. Age, gender, body-mass index, cancer case or control status and tobacco consumption also significantly impacted DNA yield. Feedback from laboratories which have analyzed DNA with different SNP genotyping technologies demonstrate that the vast majority of samples (approximately 88%) performed adequately in different types of assays. To our knowledge this study is the largest to date to evaluate the sources of pre-analytical variations in DNA extracted from peripheral leucocytes. The results provide a strong evidence-based rationale for standardized recommendations on blood collection and processing protocols for large-scale genetic studies.

Cathepsin S, a protein coded by the CTSS gene, is implicated in adipose tissue biology--this protein enhances adipose tissue development. Our hypothesis is that common variants in CTSS play a role in body weight regulation and in the development of obesity and that these effects are influenced by dietary factors--increased by high protein, glycemic index and energy diets.Four tag SNPs (rs7511673, rs11576175, rs10888390 and rs1136774) were selected to capture all common variation in the CTSS region. Association between these four SNPs and several adiposity measurements (BMI, waist circumference, waist for given BMI and being a weight gainer-experiencing the greatest degree of unexplained annual weight gain during follow-up or not) given, where applicable, both as baseline values and gain during the study period (6-8 years) were tested in 11,091 European individuals (linear or logistic regression models). We also examined the interaction between the CTSS variants and dietary factors--energy density, protein content (in grams or in % of total energy intake) and glycemic index--on these four adiposity phenotypes.We found several associations between CTSS polymorphisms and anthropometric traits including baseline BMI (rs11576175 (SNP N°2), p = 0.02, β = -0.2446), and waist change over time (rs7511673 (SNP N°1), p = 0.01, β = -0.0433 and rs10888390 (SNP N°3), p = 0.04, β = -0.0342). In interaction with the percentage of proteins contained in the diet, rs11576175 (SNP N°2) was also associated with the risk of being a weight gainer (p(interaction) = 0.01, OR = 1.0526)--the risk of being a weight gainer increased with the percentage of proteins contained in the diet.CTSS variants seem to be nominally associated to obesity related traits and this association may be modified by dietary protein intake.

BACKGROUND:Earlier analyses within the EPIC study showed that dietary fibre intake was inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk, but results from some large cohort studies do not support this finding. We explored whether the association remained after longer follow-up with a near threefold increase in colorectal cancer cases, and if the association varied by gender and tumour location. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:After a mean follow-up of 11.0 years, 4,517 incident cases of colorectal cancer were documented. Total, cereal, fruit, and vegetable fibre intakes were estimated from dietary questionnaires at baseline. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models stratified by age, sex, and centre, and adjusted for total energy intake, body mass index, physical activity, smoking, education, menopausal status, hormone replacement therapy, oral contraceptive use, and intakes of alcohol, folate, red and processed meats, and calcium. After multivariable adjustments, total dietary fibre was inversely associated with colorectal cancer (HR per 10 g/day increase in fibre 0.87, 95% CI: 0.79-0.96). Similar linear associations were observed for colon and rectal cancers. The association between total dietary fibre and risk of colorectal cancer risk did not differ by age, sex, or anthropometric, lifestyle, and dietary variables. Fibre from cereals and fibre from fruit and vegetables were similarly associated with colon cancer; but for rectal cancer, the inverse association was only evident for fibre from cereals. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Our results strengthen the evidence for the role of high dietary fibre intake in colorectal cancer prevention.

While the risk of ovarian cancer clearly reduces with each full-term pregnancy, the effect of incomplete pregnancies is unclear. We investigated whether incomplete pregnancies (miscarriages and induced abortions) are associated with risk of epithelial ovarian cancer. This observational study was carried out in female participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). A total of 274,442 women were followed from 1992 until 2010. The baseline questionnaire elicited information on miscarriages and induced abortions, reproductive history, and lifestyle-related factors. During a median follow-up of 11.5 years, 1,035 women were diagnosed with incident epithelial ovarian cancer. Despite the lack of an overall association (ever vs. never), risk of ovarian cancer was higher among women with multiple incomplete pregnancies (HR(≥4vs.0): 1.74, 95% CI: 1.20-2.70; number of cases in this category: n = 23). This association was particularly evident for multiple miscarriages (HR(≥4vs.0): 1.99, 95% CI: 1.06-3.73; number of cases in this category: n = 10), with no significant association for multiple induced abortions (HR(≥4vs.0): 1.46, 95% CI: 0.68-3.14; number of cases in this category: n = 7). Our findings suggest that multiple miscarriages are associated with an increased risk of epithelial ovarian cancer, possibly through a shared cluster of etiological factors or a common underlying pathology. These findings should be interpreted with caution as this is the first study to show this association and given the small number of cases in the highest exposure categories.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been successful in identifying common genetic variation involved in susceptibility to etiologically complex disease. We conducted a GWAS to identify common genetic variation involved in susceptibility to upper aero-digestive tract (UADT) cancers. Genome-wide genotyping was carried out using the Illumina HumanHap300 beadchips in 2,091 UADT cancer cases and 3,513 controls from two large European multi-centre UADT cancer studies, as well as 4,821 generic controls. The 19 top-ranked variants were investigated further in an additional 6,514 UADT cancer cases and 7,892 controls of European descent from an additional 13 UADT cancer studies participating in the INHANCE consortium. Five common variants presented evidence for significant association in the combined analysis (p ≤ 5 × 10⁻⁷). Two novel variants were identified, a 4q21 variant (rs1494961, p = 1×10⁻⁸) located near DNA repair related genes HEL308 and FAM175A (or Abraxas) and a 12q24 variant (rs4767364, p =2 × 10⁻⁸) located in an extended linkage disequilibrium region that contains multiple genes including the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) gene. Three remaining variants are located in the ADH gene cluster and were identified previously in a candidate gene study involving some of these samples. The association between these three variants and UADT cancers was independently replicated in 5,092 UADT cancer cases and 6,794 controls non-overlapping samples presented here (rs1573496-ADH7, p = 5 × 10⁻⁸); rs1229984-ADH1B, p = 7 × 10⁻⁹; and rs698-ADH1C, p = 0.02). These results implicate two variants at 4q21 and 12q24 and further highlight three ADH variants in UADT cancer susceptibility.