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Governments have committed to global targets to slow biodiversity loss and sustain ecosystem services. Biodiversity state indicators that measure progress toward these targets mostly focus on species, while indicators synthesizing ecosystem change are largely lacking. We fill this gap with three indices quantifying past and projected changes in ecosystems using data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Ecosystems. Our indices quantify changes in risk of ecosystem collapse, ecosystem area and ecological processes, and capture variation in underlying patterns among ecosystems. We apply the indices to three case studies of regional and national assessments (American/Caribbean forests, terrestrial ecosystems of Colombia, and terrestrial ecosystems of South Africa) to illustrate the indices' complementarity and versatility in revealing patterns of interest for users across sectors. Our indices have the potential to fill the recognized need for ecosystem indicators to inform conservation targets, guide policy, and prioritize management actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2014, the International Union for Conservation of Nature adopted the Red List of Ecosystems (RLE) criteria as the global standard for assessing risks to terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems. Five years on, it is timely to ask what impact this new initiative has had on ecosystem management and conservation. In this policy perspective, we use an impact evaluation framework to distinguish the outputs, outcomes, and impacts of the RLE since its inception. To date, 2,821 ecosystems in 100 countries have been assessed following the RLE protocol. Systematic assessments are complete or underway in 21 countries and two continental regions (the Americas and Europe). Countries with established ecosystem policy infrastructure have already used the RLE to inform legislation, land‐use planning, protected area management, monitoring and reporting, and ecosystem management. Impacts are still emerging due to varying pace and commitment to implementation across different countries. In the future, RLE indices based on systematic assessments have high potential to inform global biodiversity reporting. Expanding the coverage of RLE assessments, building capacity and political will to undertake them, and establishing stronger policy instruments to manage red‐listed ecosystems will be key to maximizing conservation impacts over the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests of the Americas and the Caribbean are undergoing rapid change as human populations increase and land use intensifies. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems (RLE) criteria and simple cost‐efficiency analyses to provide the first regional perspective on patterns of relative risk integrated across multiple threats. Based on six indicators of ecosystem distribution and function, we find that 80% of the forest types and 85% of the current forest area is potentially threatened based on RLE criteria. Twelve forest types are Critically Endangered due to past or projected future deforestation, and Tropical Dry Forests and Woodland have highest threat scores. To efficiently reduce risks to forest ecosystems at national levels, scenario analyses show that countries would need to combine large forest protection measures with focused actions, tailored to their sociopolitical context, to help restore ecological functions in a selection of threatened forest types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution models (SDM) can be valuable for identifying key habitats for conservation management of threatened taxa, but anthropogenic habitat change can undermine SDM accuracy. We used data for the Red Siskin ( Spinus cucullatus ), a critically endangered bird and ground truthing to examine anthropogenic habitat change as a source of SDM inaccuracy. We aimed to estimate: (1) the Red Siskin's historic distribution in Venezuela; (2) the portion of this historic distribution lost to vegetation degradation; and (3) the location of key habitats or areas with both, a high probability of historic occurrence and a low probability of vegetation degradation. We ground-truthed 191 locations and used expert opinion as well as landscape characteristics to classify species' habitat suitability as excellent, good, acceptable, or poor. We fit a Random Forest model (RF) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) time series to evaluate the accuracy and precision of the expert categorization of habitat suitability. We estimated the probability of historic occurrence by fitting a MaxLike model using 88 presence records (1960-2013) and data on forest cover and aridity index. Of the entire study area, 23% (20,696 km 2 ) had a historic probability of Red Siskin occurrence over 0.743. Furthermore, 85% of ground-truthed locations had substantial reductions in mean EVI, resulting in key habitats totaling just 976 km 2 , in small blocks in the western and central regions. Decline in Area of Occupancy over 15 years was between 40% and 95%, corresponding to an extinction risk category between Vulnerable and Critically Endangered. Relating key habitats with other landscape features revealed significant risks and opportunities for proposed conservation interventions, including the fact that ongoing vegetation degradation could limit the establishment of reintroduced populations in eastern areas, while the conservation of remaining key habitats on private lands could be improved with biodiversity-friendly agri- and silviculture programs.