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Resilience assessment and management of technical systems have been increasingly important as the current applications in the process industries are becoming more complex. Several review papers on resilience man-agement methods and applications have been published by researchers from different aspects. However, none of them put the focus on bibliometric analysis of the relevant research works especially those in the process in-dustries. This study pays attention to system resilience assessment and management, by reviewing sources of relevant publications, collaboration of institutions and authors, and development trends. In addition, the development of resilience engineering and management is further investigated through analyzing the most influential and relevant journals of process safety and environmental protection. This review provides valuable information regarding knowledge structure, evolution and influential publications, and high-level insights for future research.

While the concept of smart shipping is expected to shape the future of the maritime industry, its safety is still a major concern. New risks might emerge when shifting from human controllers onboard, to autonomous software controllers and remote human controllers. The uncertainties associated with the emerging risks require an efficient decision-making methodology to ensure ship safety. This paper proposes a framework for selecting Risk Control Options (RCOs) of ships with higher degrees of autonomy in the context of marine risk assessment and Formal Safety Assessment (FSA). The framework uses the System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) for the hazard analysis and the identification of RCOs, while Bayesian Network is employed in the framework for estimating the system risk. Integrating STPA and BN offers the possibility to cover most of the steps of both risk assessment and FSA and permits the prioritization of the identified RCOs. The proposed method is applied to a concept of an autonomous seawater coolingsystem (SWC) as an illustrative case study. The results indicate that the RCOs including sensors health monitoring and software testing should be prioritized to reduce the risk. This is unveiled by the STPA analysis which shows the risk contribution of the associated causal scenarios.

Escort and convoy are typical operations when a merchant ship navigates in ice beyond its own ice-going capability. In such scenarios, a safety distance between the front ship and the following ship is maintained. The leading vessel may suddenly decelerate or even come to a halt if it encounters a heavy ridge or thick ice floe. When this happens, the following ship needs to take actions to avoid collision with the leading vessel. An evasive operation for such collision avoidance is to break out of the channel. The safety distance can be defined as the minimum distance which is needed for successful collision avoidance. This depends on various parameters such as ice thickness, ship speed, channel width, the ship’s icebreaking capability and its manoeuvrability in ice. This paper investigates safety distance during escort and convoy by model-scale experiments and numerical simulation of a ship breaking out of ice channel. The experiments are carried out at Aalto Ice Tank and the numerical simulations are conducted via the in-house simulation software package of Aalto University Marine Technology group. The dependencies of the safety distance on ice thickness, channel width and initial speed are identified via multiple experimental and simulation runs. The simulation proves to provide accurate estimation on breakout distance through comparison with model test results, and reveals the influence of ice thickness, channel width and initial speed on the breakout distance.

This article presents a bibliometric analysis and mapping of the Chinese process safety research, focusing on the contributions made in core process safety journals and on the influences of international collaborations and knowledge sources on the developments of this research domain. Collaboration networks, term co-occurrence networks, and co-citation network were analyzed to identify trends, patterns, and the knowledge distribution of the Chinese research on process safety. Work to data has been clustered mainly on safety of chemical processes, fire and explosion, and risk management and accidents. Chinese research contributions are concentrated in only few journals, while the corresponding intellectual base draws on the wider literature focused on understanding and modeling phenomena, and on the broader risk research literature, although to a lesser extent. While various foreign authors are highly cited by Chinese authors, only very few direct collaborations with international scholars are identified. The results are used as a basis for a discussion on future research directions and developments for the community. Increased focus on uncertainty treatment and handling of black swan events, risk evaluation and economic aspects of safety decisions, interorganizational risk management, road and maritime transport of hazardous substances, risk perception and communication, and integrated safety and security assessment, are highlighted as fruitful directions for future scholarship. It is hoped that the insights obtained from this work can facilitate new and consolidated collaborations, as well as further invigorate the Chinese process safety domain, ultimately contributing to improved safety performance of process industries in China and elsewhere.

Safety climate and safety culture are important research domains in risk and safety science, and various industry and service sectors show significant interest in, and commitment to, applying its concepts, theories, and methods to enhance organizational safety performance. Despite the large body of literature on these topics, there are disagreements about the scope and focus of these concepts, and there is a lack of systematic understanding of their development patterns and the knowledge domains on which these are built. This article presents a comparative analysis of the literature focusing on safety climate and safety culture, using various scientometric analysis approaches and tools. General development patterns are identified, including the publication trends, in terms of temporal and geographical activity, the science domains in which safety culture and safety climate research occurs, and the scientific domains and articles that have primarily influenced their respective development. It is found that the safety culture and safety climate domains show strong similarities, e.g., in dominant application domains and frequently occurring terms. However, safety culture research attracts comparatively more attention from other scientific domains, and the research domains rely on partially different knowledge bases. In particular, while measurement plays a role in both domains, the results suggest that safety climate research focuses comparatively more on the development and validation of questionnaires and surveys in particular organizational contexts, whereas safety culture research appears to relate these measurements to wider organizational features and management mechanisms. Finally, various directions for future research are identified based on the obtained results.

Funding Information: The first author of this work is supported by the China Scholarship Council (Grant Number: 201606950009) and Marine Technology research group in Aalto University (9170094). This work is also supported by the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) through Grant No. 52001237 and 52001241. The work has further received financial support from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund, through the Ocean Frontier Institute. This financial support is gratefully acknowledged. Besides, we thank the two anonymous reviewers for their very insightful comments, which have been very instrumental to improve an earlier version of this work. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 This paper introduced a new ship domain concept and an analytical framework. The ship domain takes the point of the ship’s first evasive maneuver as a basis and correlates it with the navigator-perceived collision risk level. The first evasive maneuver of a ship is detected based on the ship turning point identification and ship intention estimation. The available maneuvering margin (AMM) is utilized as a proxy to measure the perceived collision risk by the navigator. Interpreting the first evasive maneuver in terms of this AMM over a large sample of vessel encounters taken from automatic identification system (AIS) data finally enables an empirical estimation of the size of this ship domain. The method is applied to AIS data in the Northern Baltic Sea, and separate ship domains are constructed for the give-way and stand-on vessels with different maneuverability characteristics. Compared to the existing proximity-based ship domain, this ship domain explicitly incorporates the dynamic nature of the encounter process and the navigator’s evasive maneuvers. Several advantages of this proposed ship domain concept and limitations of the presented modeling approach are discussed. Finally, possible future applications are explained, including waterway safety assessment and navigational decision support systems to reduce ship-ship collision risk.

The Baltic Sea is a unique and sensitive brackish-water ecosystem vulnerable to damage from shipping activities. Despite high levels of maritime safety in the area, there is a continued risk of oil spills and associated harmful environmental impacts. Achieving common situational awareness between oil spill response decision makers and other actors, such as merchant vessel and Vessel Traffic Service center operators, is an important step to minimizing detrimental effects. This paper presents the Next-Generation Smart Response Web (NG-SRW), a web-based application to aid decision making concerning oil spill response. This tool aims to provide, dynamically and interactively, relevant information on oil spills. By integrating the analysis and visualization of dynamic spill features with the sensitivity of environmental elements and value of human uses, the benefits of potential response actions can be compared, helping to develop an appropriate response strategy. The oil spill process simulation enables the response authorities to judge better the complexity and dynamic behavior of the systems and processes behind the potential environmental impact assessment and thereby better control the oil combat action.

Funding Information: The work received funding from SIMREC project (CBC 2014?2020), funded by the European Union, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Finland. The work also received funding from the Lloyd's Register Foundation, a charitable foundation, helping to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research www.lrfoundation.org.uk. The contributions by the third author were undertaken in context of the project ?Safe Navigation and Environmental Protection?, thanks in part to funding from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund, through the Ocean Frontier Institute. The authors also thank Fang Li and Mikko Suominen for their valuable comments to the paper. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s) Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved. Ships navigating in ice inevitably encounter different ice conditions. Dynamic ice typically presents severe conditions when it is moving perpendicular towards the parallel midship section, which can lead to ships getting stuck in ice. This can cause delays for ships or even damage to the ship hull. However, there currently is no model to assess ship operability in this dynamic ice. This paper aims to develop a method to assess operability of ships in dynamic ice conditions, which can be used for ship routing to avoid ship stuck. The method is especially useful for emergency response planning purposes, e.g. for marine pollution preparedness and response planning, where an understanding of the operability of response vessels in dynamic ice conditions currently is lacking. First, a transit model is introduced for both independent navigation and escort operations, considering the additional ice resistance by dynamic ice. Then, a ship operability index is proposed based on the modelling of ship's performance. Case studies of independent navigation and escort operations in realistic dynamic ice conditions are investigated to compare with the simulated results. Reasonable agreement is obtained, indicating that the proposed method can be used for ship operability assessment in dynamic ice.

Scientometrics analysis is increasingly applied across scientific domains to gain quantitative insights in the development of research on particular (sub-)domains of scientific inquiry. By visualizing metrics containing quantitative information about such a domain, scientometric mapping allows researchers to gain insights in aspects thereof. Methods have been developed to answer specific research questions, focusing e.g. on collaboration networks, thematic research clusters, historic evolution patterns, and trends in topics addressed. Several articles applying scientometric mapping to safety-related topics have been published. In context of the Special Issue ‘Mapping Safety Science – Reviewing Safety Research’, this article first reviews these, and subsequently provides an overview of key concepts, methods, and tools for scientometric mapping. Data sources and freely available tools are introduced, focusing on which research questions these are suited to answer. A brief tutorial-style description of a scientometrics research process is provided, guiding researchers new to this method how to engage with it. Finally, a discussion on best practices in scientometric mapping research is made, focusing on how to obtain reliable and valid results, and how to use the scientometric maps to gain meaningful insights. It is hoped that this work can advance the application of scientometric research within the safety science community.

Highlights • A new risk management framework for maritime Pollution Preparedness and Response is proposed. • The framework aims to comply with the complex reality of Pollution Preparedness and Response risk management. • The framework is based on the current scientific knowledge and practical needs of its end-users. Several risk management frameworks have been introduced in the literature for maritime Pollution Preparedness and Response (PPR). However, in light of the actual needs of the competent authorities, there is still a lack of framework that is established on a sound risk conceptual basis, addresses the different risk management decision-making contexts of organizations, and provides tools for various risk management questions of this field. To alleviate the limits of existing approaches, this paper introduces a new risk management framework for this purpose, which was developed in cooperation with the competent authorities and other maritime experts. The framework adopts the risk-informed decision-making strategy and includes three aligned components. The first component provides a unified theoretical risk concept to the framework through an interpretation of the Society for Risk Analysis risk approach. The second consists of four ISO 31000:2018 standard based processes focused on different risk management decision-making contexts of the PPR organizations. The third comprises a set of practical risk assessment tools to generate the needed information. A case study provides an example of the functionality of this framework with integrated data from the northern Baltic Sea. To conclude, a risk concept is provided for the PPR authorities and their stakeholders as well as processes for managing the risk and tools for its assessment.

Ship performance in level ice involves problems such as attainable speed and maneuverability under different ice thickness. As the alternative to analytical methods, numerical simulation models have been proposed in recent years to improve the accuracy and to analyze more complex operations. However, current numerical models use quite diverse approaches to model the icebreaking components, and focus on rather different aspects, while the choices need more justification. The primary aim of this paper is to propose a framework for the development of effective and efficient numerical models to simulate ship performance in level ice, based on state-of-the-art knowledge of ship-ice interaction. This covers a discussion of modelling purposes and a hierarchical decomposition of the problem, followed by a strategy and two methods which could be applied to improve accuracy and credibility, as well as methodology of validation. Following the proposed framework, a numerical model is proposed as a prototype model, which simulates ship performance in level ice, and can be developed further in future. The numerical simulation results are compared with full-scale measurement results of a ship on the Baltic Sea, indicating reasonable estimation of ship turning. This implies the validity of the model as a prototype of the proposed framework.

Graphical abstract, Highlights • Macro-analysing the scientific literature on Coronaviruses and Covid-19. • Identifying macro-level patterns of scholarly publications on Coronaviruses and Covid-19. • Scoping review of the safety-related research dimensions with respect to Covid-19. • Synthesising the current safety-related findings of the scientific studies on Covid-19. • Identifying underrepresented safety dimensions with respect to academic studies of Covid-19., The COVID-19 global pandemic has generated an abundance of research quickly following the outbreak. Within only a few months, more than a thousand studies on this topic have already appeared in the scientific literature. In this short review, we analyse the bibliometric aspects of these studies on a macro level, as well as those addressing Coronaviruses in general. Furthermore, through a scoping analysis of the literature on COVID-19, we identify the main safety-related dimensions that these studies have thus far addressed. Our findings show that across various research domains, and apart from the medical and clinical aspects such as the safety of vaccines and treatments, issues related to patient transport safety, occupational safety of healthcare professionals, biosafety of laboratories and facilities, social safety, food safety, and particularly mental/psychological health and domestic safety have thus far attracted most attention of the scientific community in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis also uncovers various potentially significant safety problems caused by this global health emergency which currently have attracted only limited scientific focus but may warrant more attention. These include matters such as cyber safety, economic safety, and supply-chain safety. These findings highlight why, from an academic research perspective, a holistic interdisciplinary approach and a collective scientific effort is required to help understand and mitigate the various safety impacts of this crisis whose implications reach far beyond the bio-medical risks. Such holistic safety-scientific understanding of the COVID-19 crisis can furthermore be instrumental to be better prepared for a future pandemic.

Dr. Kletz is one the pioneers in the process safety area, known widely for his work on inherent safety design and loss prevention. He worked 38 years in Imperial Chemical Industries, and became a fulltime researcher only after his retirement. He published more than 200 papers and 15 books during his retirement. The intellectual basis analysis presented in this article shows that he frequently cited his books in his articles, indicating that his industrial experience was very influential to his scholarly contributions. Lawley, H.G. was one of the researchers whose work had most influence on Kletz's research. Among Dr. Kletz's publications, the article ‘What You Don't Have, Can't Leak’ has the highest impact, while his most influential book is ‘Process plants: A handbook for inherently safer design’. The references co-citation network is divided in two clearly connected components: his earlier work related to infra-red spectra, and his later work addressing process safety related topics, including inherent safety and hazard and accident analysis. Both his work and that of his followers is rooted in a similar intellectual basis within process safety research, in which particularly Dr. Kletz's earlier work forms an influential original body of knowledge rooted in his industrial experience. His career is a prime example of how process safety research has been strongly influenced by knowledge from industrial practice, illustrating that a continued strong connection between industry and academia can lead to very fruitful outcomes. It is hoped that the presented analysis can inspire especially young graduates with academic interests to first embark on an industrial career to gain industrial experience before aiming to contribute to academic process safety knowledge.

Over the last decades, process safety has been an important area of academic inquiry, aiming to build knowledge which can contribute to reduce the occurrence of industrial accidents in the process and chemical industries, or to mitigate their consequences. Knowledge in this interdisciplinary research domain is created using applied science, engineering, organizational, and social science approaches. This article provides a retrospective overview of the process safety research field, through the lens of three major journals contributing to the development of this knowledge domain: Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, and Process Safety Progress. An analysis of the articles in these journals, published between 1999 and 2018, provides insights in the structure, developments, trends, and highly influential works in this research domain, while revealing differences and similarities between these three core process safety journals. General publication trends, the geographic distribution of leading knowledge producers (countries/regions and institutions), their collaboration and temporal evolution patterns, topic clusters and emerging trends, and highly cited sources and articles, are identified and discussed.

Dr. M. Sam Mannan is one of the true pioneers in the process safety area, spending almost his entire lifetime in process safety and risk research. He was dedicated to ‘make safety second nature’ and published an impressive body of work. An overview of his research helps understanding the process safety area and provides insight in the legacy of this process safety pioneer. In this paper, 327 publications authored by Dr. Mannan from 1999 to 2019 in Web of Science core collection were downloaded and visually analyzed from four perspectives: his publication outputs, collaboration networks, topic areas, and highly cited papers and cited references. The results show a rapidly increasing trend in his research activity, mostly through journal publications. He published in 53 different outlets, with Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries being most frequently selected. Dr. Mannan had a very active and diverse worldwide network, and collaborated with 18 different countries/regions, nearly 90 different institutions and 387 authors. His publications addressed process safety-related topics widely, including safety related to liquefied natural gas, explosions, runaway reactions, inherent safety, flammability and aerosol, and more recently resilience. Dr. Mannan's most cited paper focused on ‘fuzzy risk matrix’, whereas the most frequently cited reference in his work is ‘thermal hazard evaluation by an accelerating rate calorimeter’ by Townsend DI in 1980. Based on his most recent research activity, promising future directions for process safety research include resilience linked to risk assessment and management, for instance through the ‘safety triad’ concept he promoted shortly before passing away.

Practical knowledge about the performance of a ship while navigating in ice is crucial for the selection of safe and efficient route for a ship. Existing route finding tools estimate ship performance in ice adopting numerous approaches, ranging from model tests and engineering models to experts-based guidelines. Therein ship performance is usually understood as attainable ship speed or the average speed in given ice conditions; rarely the probability of besetting in ice is taken into account. Those models despite being fairly accurate in the theory share the same shortcoming in practice. The latter encompasses three main issues: (1) inaccurate information about prevailing ice conditions, (2) presence of ice conditions that goes beyond the scope of the models, and (3) the effect of operational patterns and traffic organization on the performance of an individual ship. To approach those issues, we propose a hybrid model of ship performance in ice-covered waters. The hybrid model combines two other sub-models: engineering and data-driven. The former determines ship speed and besetting probability in ridged ice field with ice concentration close to 100%. The latter sub-model provides information on ship’s speed in the actual ice conditions, where the speed is affected also by operational restrictions and icebreaker assistance. It is based on an extensive dataset combining ship data from automatic identification system and ice data from ice charts and ice forecast models. The presented hybrid model is valid for a specific ship type, which is ice going bulk carrier (IA Super ice class), operating within the Northern Baltic Sea winter navigation system. The obtained results reveal that the hybrid model in principle is capable of providing reliable information about the performance of a ship in a wide range of conditions accounting for environmental variability and existing operational conditions. The model is suitable for the purpose of safe route planning in ice for a single ship or group of similar ships, accounting for the economy and safety of a voyage.

For the design and transit simulation of ice-going ships, a number of methods have been proposed for the prediction of ship resistance and transit speed in various ice conditions. In this paper, selected methods for ship performance in level ice, ridged ice and channel ice are evaluated based on full-scale measurement data of two ships. Uncertainties are identified and evaluated for a better understanding of the deviations in the results. Ice thickness in full-scale data was measured using multiple methods to minimize the uncertainty. The thickness of level ice was measured by a stereo camera system. The ridge profile was identified through measurement with an electromagnetic device. Visual observation was conducted for the description of encountered ice conditions. For a better estimation of ship net thrust through propulsive data, the net thrust model is revised in this paper to take the effect of power and propeller pitch into consideration. The results show that for transit simulation, the selected methods for level ice give acceptable prediction of ship speed with certain underestimation. For ridged ice, the method seems to underestimate the speed, especially when a ship needs to conduct ramming operation. Data acquisition is the most problematic for the investigation of channel ice. The uncertainties due to the modelling of sub-processes and ice properties lead to certain scatter in applying these methods for speed prediction. Possible improvements are given as the conclusion of this work.

Ice management enables offshore and marine activities in Arctic waters in the presence of sea ice or icebergs. The presence of ice introduces additional risks to the activities. This paper discusses the risks in the light of novel risk perspectives, emphasizing uncertainties arising from potentially weak background knowledge in ice management operations. An ice management system is defined and a generic risk picture of an ice management operation is created. Risk theory is connected to the results using discussion and a conceptual example. Ice management operations are complex socio-technical systems requiring expertise in various fields. Available data is scarce and uncertainties are high. Still, the main activities need to trust in the ice management system to operate safely. The risks in ice management operations culminate in decision making and physical ice management. These need to be better understood to manage the operational risks.

Autonomous vessels have become a topic of high interest for the maritime transport industry. Recent progress in the development of technologies enabling autonomous systems has fostered the idea that autonomous vessels will soon be a reality. However, before the first autonomous vessel can be released into her actual context of operation, it is necessary to ensure that it is safe. This is a major challenge as the experience of autonomous ships is very limited. This study highlights the need for elaborating a systemic and systematic hazard analysis since the earliest design phase of an autonomous vessel. In particular, it proposes a process for elaborating an initial hazard analysis and management that provides coherent, transparent and traceable safety input information for the design of an autonomous vessel. The process is applied to analyse the hazards of two autonomous vessel concepts for urban transport in the city of Turku, Finland.

Safety for conventional and autonomous navigation in ice-covered waters is a topic of rising importance. Here, we propose a generic extendable framework to provide the optimal route from multiple route planning objectives. These objectives are attained by an evaluation of multi-source input data, including state-of-the-art model data for ice conditions, for bathymetric knowledge, and for ship-ice interaction. Additionally, we model the ship-ship interactions statistically using a mean-field, to account for ships (indirectly) assisting each other via artificial ice channels. For the subsequent pathfinding problem, we propose a new A*-based algorithm that yields output which is not dependent on the grid format of the input data but instead consists of a path that follows the Earth's curvature. The outputs of the algorithm are a set of waypoints (representing the optimal route), the travel costs (expressed in time), and the additional travel cost estimates caused by route deviation, should the optimal route be altered in any way. The steaming speeds, the optimal route, and the deviation times are represented with two-dimensional (2D) maps. Finally, we provide a model implementation of our framework as a Matlab-package, ICEPATHFINDER, that is suitable for both operational and strategic ship route optimization.

openaire: EC/H2020/730888/EU//RESET With the global warming and a large amount of sea ice melting, the available Arctic Sea Route has greatly enhanced the value of Arctic shipping. Ship operations under icebreaker assistance have become an essential way to facilitate the safe navigation of merchant vessels sailing through the Arctic Sea Route in ice-covered waters, but they can also put the crew and the ship in danger caused by a possible collision between the assisted ship and the icebreaker. In this paper, a dedicated Human and Organizational Factors (HoFs) model of ship collision accidents between an assisted ship and an icebreaker is developed and analyzed with the aim to identify and classify collision risk factors. First, a modified model of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) for collision accidents between a ship and an icebreaker in ice-covered waters is proposed, which helps to analyze ship collision reports. Then, a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) model is utilized to analyze the fundamental collision risk factors according to the statistical analysis of accident reports and expert judgments based on the HFACS-SIBCI model. Finally, qualitative analysis is carried out to analyze collision risk factors under icebreaker assistance, where Risk Control Options (RCOs) are formulated. An important guidance for the risk control of ship collisions during icebreaker assistance in ice-covered waters is provided for lawmakers and shipping companies.

openaire: EC/H2020/730888/EU//RESET A safety management system (SMS) is the common means used by organizations to assess organizational performance with respect to the safety and well-being of people, property and the natural ecosystem. A SMS provides confidence to diverse stakeholders that organizational safety is at an appropriate level and fulfils the applicable regulatory standards. As a multifaceted system for organizational safety assessment, ensurance and assurance, the evaluation of the design and operational use of SMS is a complex process. An evaluation needs to provide evidence about how well the design and operation of an SMS complies with applicable standards and how well the methods used in the SMS implementation support the organizational policies and practical work. In the maritime domain, SMS is broadly applied. However, there are few theoretically rooted SMS design approaches, and there is a lack of frameworks to evaluate how well the SMS is designed and how effectively it operates. This paper proposes an initial evaluation framework for the design and operational use of a maritime SMS design approach based on Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP), realist evaluation and Bayesian Networks. This framework is applied for a case study of vessel traffic services (VTS) Finland to test its relevance and ability to guide the SMS design. The experiences gained in the case study, and the related discussion on the framework, can guide further research in this area. Ultimately, the work can be used as a basis for developing maritime SMS auditing processes, based on specific theoretical and methodological approaches.

Risk matrices and risk diagrams are widely used tools for analyzing, assessing and visualizing risk in many industries, and are used extensively for risk management purposes. Despite their popularity and wide application, they have recently become the object of discussion and research in scientific environments, which can be seen as part of a wider focus on foundational issues in the risk analysis discipline. Identifying several serious limitations and problems with the risk matrix approach, various authors have proposed extensions, modifications and recommendations for their use. One issue which has been raised recently but has attracted relatively limited scientific attention is the consideration of uncertainty in risk diagrams, i.e. how to visually represent and communicate uncertainty. This paper first reviews the available proposals for this question. Subsequently, the strengths and weaknesses of these proposals are discussed. Finally, some new proposals are made on how to represent uncertainty in risk diagrams in practical applications. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient response to maritime incidents and accidents requires good communication processes and situation awareness by all involved parties, in particular between the Search and Rescue (SAR) response operators and the crew of the distressed vessel. In this paper, a method is proposed for enhancing the communication between the involved parties, by focusing on the safety status of the vessel. Borrowing ideas from well-established working methods in especially emergency medicine, the Vessel TRIAGE method has been established through a broad stakeholder consultation process. Its intended application is to assess and communicate whether a vessel can provide a safe environment for the people onboard. Using a set of threat factors and a four-level ship safety categorization, the method aims to establish a shared understanding of the nature of the distress situation, which in turn has implications for the operational focus of the SAR operators and vessel crew. An evaluation of the proposed method indicates a positive reception among various maritime stakeholders, suggesting that implementing the Vessel TRIAGE method in maritime SAR procedures may act as a useful tool to assist in the management of maritime distress situations.

Recently, there have been several calls for increased attention to foundational issues in risk analysis, addressing issues like terminology, principles and theories. An important foundational issue is the appropriateness of different concepts and perspectives for analyzing risk in practical applications. Several authors have addressed this through arguments involving, inter alia, the definition of risk, the ontology of risk, and the reliability and validity of risk analysis. This paper aims to contribute to this discussion by focusing on the concept of prediction. While this term is quite frequently used in risk analysis contexts, no earlier work has specifically focused on the issue of whether risk analyses can be considered to be predictive, and if so, in what sense. Neither has this been linked to the feasibility of risk perspectives. First, two definitions of what prediction can mean are elaborated, and criteria corresponding to these definitions are outlined to facilitate the subsequent discussion. A brief discussion on system types is included, as one type of prediction is defined through the relation between the model and the modeled system. Then, the definitions of prediction and the corresponding criteria are used to consider the appropriateness of two commonly used risk perspectives, namely the probability of frequency and the uncertainty perspective. In the former, a risk analysis aims at estimating an underlying true risk with quantified uncertainty bounds. In the latter, a risk analysis is a descriptive account of judgments and uncertainties by an assessor. It is finally argued that the uncertainty perspective generally is more appropriate than the probability of frequency perspective for practical risk analysis applications.

Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) are becoming reality in the shippingindustry. Besides numerous anticipated advantages this type of ships has there are new potential hazards as well that have to be addressed. This needs to be done at the design stage of transportation system that will encompass such vehicles, to make sure that the new system’s safety can be guaranteed at the acceptable level. To this end numerous methods can be utilized pertaining to the field of safety and risk assessment. Those methods however are of different scope and may have different application areas. Therefore in this paper we discuss selected methods suitable for safety assessment and quantification of transportation systems including goal-based safety case approach, system theoretic process analysis and risk assessment. Challenges and opportunities of those approaches are highlighted and the recommendations are given regarding the application areas of the methods.

Under an increasing maritime transport in the Baltic Sea, and especially in the Gulf of Finland, the possibility of environmental harm and accidents due to shipping pressure is growing. To counteract increasing risks, adequate measures for accident prevention and mitigation of environmental consequences are critically important. The Gulf of Finland Mandatory Ship Reporting System (GOFREP) is a the complex socio-technical maritime transport safety management system that has been in efficient operation since 2004 and it is open to further improvement and development. However, environmental safety is not explicitly covered by the GOFREP so far. According to our working hypothesis, the Systems Theoretic Accident Models and Processes (STAMP) can be extended beyond the area of socio-technical system safety into realm of complex eco-socio-technical systems safety. This paper attempts to demonstrate the conceptual potential of STAMP based on adaptive management of the Maritime Spatial Planning processes and integrated safety management of eco-socio-technical maritime transport system.

Many methods and applications for maritime transportation risk analysis have been presented in the literature. In parallel, there is a recent focus on foundational issues in risk analysis, with calls for intensified research on fundamental concepts and principles underlying the scientific field. This paper presents a review and analysis of risk definitions, perspectives and scientific approaches to risk analysis found in the maritime transportation application area, focusing on applications addressing accidental risk of shipping in a sea area. For this purpose, a classification of risk definitions, an overview of elements in risk perspectives and a classification of approaches to risk analysis science are applied. Results reveal that in the application area, risk is strongly tied to probability, both in definitions and perspectives, while alternative views exist. A diffuse situation is also found concerning the scientific approach to risk analysis, with realist, proceduralist and constructivist foundations co-existing. Realist approaches dominate the application area. Very few applications systematically account for uncertainty, neither concerning the evidence base nor in relation to the limitations of the risk model in relation to the space of possible outcomes. Some suggestions are made to improve the current situation, aiming to strengthen the scientific basis for risk analysis.

Various methods have been proposed to analyse safety and risk of maritime transportation, through modelling techniques and empirical studies, focusing on ship–ship collision. However, an efficient method for screening traffic data for the near miss collisions is lacking. Therefore the contribution of this paper is two-fold. First, it proposes a novel method detecting possible near miss ship–ship collisions from AIS data. Second, it discusses how such near miss data can be used to gain further insight in safety of maritime transportation. The developed Vessel Conflict Ranking Operator (VCRO) considers the following factors affecting the complexity of an encounter between two ships: the distance between the two ships, the relative speed of the ships, and the difference between the headings of the ships. The model content and structure are based on expert judgment, whereas the parameterisation is based on AIS data points of a reference encounter situation dataset. The developed model has been applied to the traffic data from the Northern Baltic Sea. The obtained results and the model validity tests suggest the model being adequate for ranking encounters, and for prioritising the encounters to subject to further expert scrutiny.

Winter navigation is a complex but common operation in north-European sea areas. In Finnish waters, the smooth flow of maritime traffic and safety of vessel navigation during the winter period are managed through the Finnish–Swedish winter navigation system (FSWNS). This article focuses on accident risks in winter navigation operations, beginning with a brief outline of the FSWNS. The study analyses a hazard identification model of winter navigation and reviews accident data extracted from four winter periods. These are adopted as a basis for visualizing the risks in winter navigation operations. The results reveal that experts consider ship independent navigation in ice conditions the most complex navigational operation, which is confirmed by accident data analysis showing that the operation constitutes the type of navigation with the highest number of accidents reported. The severity of the accidents during winter navigation is mainly categorized as less serious. Collision is the most typical accident in ice navigation and general cargo the type of vessel most frequently involved in these accidents. Consolidated ice, ice ridges and ice thickness between 15 and 40 cm represent the most common ice conditions in which accidents occur. Thus, the analysis presented in this article establishes the key elements for identifying the operation types which would benefit most from further safety engineering and safety or risk management development.

Winter navigation is a complex but common operation in the Northern Baltic Sea areas. In Finnish waters, the safety of the wintertime maritime transportation system is managed through the Finnish–Swedish winter navigation system. This system results in different operational modes of ship navigation, with vessels either navigating independently or under icebreaker assistance. A recent risk analysis indicates that during icebreaker assistance, convoys operations are among the most hazardous, with convoy collisions the most important risk events. While the accident likelihood per exposure time is rather low, accidents occur almost every winter. Even though these typically lead to less serious consequences, accidents leading to ship loss and oil pollution have occurred and may occur in the future. One aspect of ship convoy navigation in ice conditions is the distance kept between the icebreaker and the ships in the convoy, a form of the well-known ship domain concept. While operational experience naturally is a valuable source of information for decision making about the distance of navigation in convoys, systematic analyses are lacking. The aim of this paper is to investigate selected operational aspects of convoy navigation in ice conditions in the Finnish waters of the Gulf of Finland, based on data of the Automatic Identification System and sea ice hindcast data. Focus is on obtaining qualitative and quantitative knowledge concerning distances between vessels in escort and convoy operations and the respective transit speeds, conditional to ice conditions. Such empirical knowledge can support operational decision making, contributing to wintertime maritime safety.

Navigation in ice covered waters is a challenging and hazardous activity, threatening the ship herself and the environment. Proper evaluation of the attainable ship speed in ice prior to setting off the journey is essential to mitigate the risk of besetting in ice which may cause further damages. The majority of the existing models evaluating ship speed in ice are physics-driven requiring detailed, not always accessible, input data, thus featuring high uncertainty. In this paper we propose an event-oriented model, reflecting the ice features under which an event of interest occurs (a given speed interval or a significant speed drop). To this end we utilize a large set of full-scale data and Bayesian learning algorithm to organize the data into a probabilistic model linking the ice conditions with the ship speed. Conditional probabilities are derived from the detailed dataset obtained in the course of full-scale tests of S.A. Agulhas II (ice class PC 5) carried out in the Baltic Sea in 2012. A set of parameters related to ice conditions; rudder and engine settings are recorded with the use of on board instruments. Ice thickness is measured with the use of electromagnetic device. Various types of ice navigation are performed i.e. steaming straight through the level and ridged ice as well as in ice channel. The model yields the probability of a certain speed under given ice conditions, and has application potential in risk assessment of besetting in ice or route finding problem. This approach could be developed further e.g. by incorporating other types of maneuvers.

VK: T20404 In risk assessment of maritime transportation, estimation of accidental oil outflow from tankers is important for assessing environmental impacts. However, there typically is limited data concerning the specific structural design and tank arrangement of ships operating in a given area. Moreover, there is uncertainty about the accident scenarios potentially emerging from ship encounters. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) model for reasoning under uncertainty for the assessment of accidental cargo oil outflow in a ship–ship collision where a product tanker is struck. The BN combines a model linking impact scenarios to damage extent with a model for estimating the tank layouts based on limited information regarding the ship. The methodology for constructing the model is presented and output for two accident scenarios is shown. The discussion elaborates on the issue of model validation, both in terms of the BN and in light of the adopted uncertainty/bias-based risk perspective.

VK: T20404 Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship–ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The riskframework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.