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A pressing concern in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and other viral outbreaks, is the extent to which the containment measures are halting the viral spread. A straightforward way to assess this is to tally the active cases and the recovered ones throughout the epidemic. Here, we show how epidemic control can be assessed with molecular information during a well characterized epidemic in Iceland. We demonstrate how the viral concentration decreased in those newly diagnosed as the epidemic transitioned from exponential growth phase to containment phase. The viral concentration in the cases identified in population screening decreased faster than in those symptomatic and considered at high risk and that were targeted by the healthcare system. The viral concentration persists in recovering individuals as we found that half of the cases are still positive after two weeks. We demonstrate that accumulation of mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genome can be exploited to track the rate of new viral generations throughout the different phases of the epidemic, where the accumulation of mutations decreases as the transmission rate decreases in the containment phase. Overall, the molecular signatures of SARS-CoV-2 infections contain valuable epidemiological information that can be used to assess the effectiveness of containment measures.

Epidemic preparedness depends on our ability to predict the trajectory of an epidemic and the human behavior that drives spread in the event of an outbreak. Changes to behavior during an outbreak limit the reliability of syndromic surveillance using large-scale data sources, such as online social media or search behavior, which could otherwise supplement healthcare-based outbreak-prediction methods. Here, we measure behavior change reflected in mobile-phone call-detail records (CDRs), a source of passively collected real-time behavioral information, using an anonymously linked dataset of cell-phone users and their date of influenza-like illness diagnosis during the 2009 H1N1v pandemic. We demonstrate that mobile-phone use during illness differs measurably from routine behavior: Diagnosed individuals exhibit less movement than normal (1.1 to 1.4 fewer unique tower locations; [Formula: see text]), on average, in the 2 to 4 d around diagnosis and place fewer calls (2.3 to 3.3 fewer calls; [Formula: see text]) while spending longer on the phone (41- to 66-s average increase; [Formula: see text]) than usual on the day following diagnosis. The results suggest that anonymously linked CDRs and health data may be sufficiently granular to augment epidemic surveillance efforts and that infectious disease-modeling efforts lacking explicit behavior-change mechanisms need to be revisited., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Background: Little is known about the nature and durability of the humoral immune response to infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)., Methods: We measured antibodies in serum samples from 30,576 persons in Iceland, using six assays (including two pan-immunoglobulin [pan-Ig] assays), and we determined that the appropriate measure of seropositivity was a positive result with both pan-Ig assays. We tested 2102 samples collected from 1237 persons up to 4 months after diagnosis by a quantitative polymerase-chain-reaction (qPCR) assay. We measured antibodies in 4222 quarantined persons who had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and in 23,452 persons not known to have been exposed., Results: Of the 1797 persons who had recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection, 1107 of the 1215 who were tested (91.1%) were seropositive; antiviral antibody titers assayed by two pan-Ig assays increased during 2 months after diagnosis by qPCR and remained on a plateau for the remainder of the study. Of quarantined persons, 2.3% were seropositive; of those with unknown exposure, 0.3% were positive. We estimate that 0.9% of Icelanders were infected with SARS-CoV-2 and that the infection was fatal in 0.3%. We also estimate that 56% of all SARS-CoV-2 infections in Iceland had been diagnosed with qPCR, 14% had occurred in quarantined persons who had not been tested with qPCR (or who had not received a positive result, if tested), and 30% had occurred in persons outside quarantine and not tested with qPCR., Conclusions: Our results indicate that antiviral antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 did not decline within 4 months after diagnosis. We estimate that the risk of death from infection was 0.3% and that 44% of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland were not diagnosed by qPCR., (Copyright © 2020 Massachusetts Medical Society.)

Background: During the current worldwide pandemic, coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) was first diagnosed in Iceland at the end of February. However, data are limited on how SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, enters and spreads in a population., Methods: We targeted testing to persons living in Iceland who were at high risk for infection (mainly those who were symptomatic, had recently traveled to high-risk countries, or had contact with infected persons). We also carried out population screening using two strategies: issuing an open invitation to 10,797 persons and sending random invitations to 2283 persons. We sequenced SARS-CoV-2 from 643 samples., Results: As of April 4, a total of 1221 of 9199 persons (13.3%) who were recruited for targeted testing had positive results for infection with SARS-CoV-2. Of those tested in the general population, 87 (0.8%) in the open-invitation screening and 13 (0.6%) in the random-population screening tested positive for the virus. In total, 6% of the population was screened. Most persons in the targeted-testing group who received positive tests early in the study had recently traveled internationally, in contrast to those who tested positive later in the study. Children under 10 years of age were less likely to receive a positive result than were persons 10 years of age or older, with percentages of 6.7% and 13.7%, respectively, for targeted testing; in the population screening, no child under 10 years of age had a positive result, as compared with 0.8% of those 10 years of age or older. Fewer females than males received positive results both in targeted testing (11.0% vs. 16.7%) and in population screening (0.6% vs. 0.9%). The haplotypes of the sequenced SARS-CoV-2 viruses were diverse and changed over time. The percentage of infected participants that was determined through population screening remained stable for the 20-day duration of screening., Conclusions: In a population-based study in Iceland, children under 10 years of age and females had a lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection than adolescents or adults and males. The proportion of infected persons identified through population screening did not change substantially during the screening period, which was consistent with a beneficial effect of containment efforts. (Funded by deCODE Genetics-Amgen.)., (Copyright © 2020 Massachusetts Medical Society.)

Detailed, country-specific epidemiological data are needed to characterize the burden of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection around the world. With new treatment options available, policy makers and public health officials must reconsider national strategies for infection control. In this study of 15 countries, published and unpublished data on HCV prevalence, viraemia, genotype, age and gender distribution, liver transplants and diagnosis and treatment rates were gathered from the literature and validated by expert consensus in each country. Viraemic prevalence in this study ranged from 0.2% in Iran and Lebanon to 4.2% in Pakistan. The largest viraemic populations were in Pakistan (7 001 000 cases) and Indonesia (3 187 000 cases). Injection drug use (IDU) and a historically unsafe blood supply were major risk factors in most countries. Diagnosis, treatment and liver transplant rates varied widely between countries. However, comparison across countries was difficult as the number of cases changes over time. Access to reliable data on measures such as these is critical for the development of future strategies to manage the disease burden., (© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The total number, morbidity and mortality attributed to viraemic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections change over time making it difficult to compare reported estimates from different years. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viraemic population and forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2014 to 2030. With the exception of Iceland, Iran, Latvia and Pakistan, the total number of viraemic HCV infections is expected to decline from 2014 to 2030, but the associated morbidity and mortality are expected to increase in all countries except for Japan and South Korea. In the latter two countries, mortality due to an ageing population will drive down prevalence, morbidity and mortality. On the other hand, both countries have already experienced a rapid increase in HCV-related mortality and morbidity. HCV-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase between 2014 and 2030 in all other countries as result of an ageing HCV-infected population. Thus, although the total number of HCV countries is expected to decline in most countries studied, the associated disease burden is expected to increase. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved., (© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries in Europe, the Middle East and Asia, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: increased treatment efficacy while holding the annual number of treated patients constant and increased treatment efficacy and an increased annual number of treated patients. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. A 90% reduction in total HCV infections within 15 years is feasible in most countries studied, but it required a coordinated effort to introduce harm reduction programmes to reduce new infections, screening to identify those already infected and treatment with high cure rate therapies. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. Among European countries, the majority of patients were born between 1940 and 1985. A wider range of birth cohorts was seen in the Middle East and Asia (between 1925 and 1995)., (© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The Water Safety Plan (WSP) methodology, which aims to enhance safety of drinking water supplies, has been recommended by the World Health Organization since 2004. WSPs are now used worldwide and are legally required in several countries. However, there is limited systematic evidence available demonstrating the effectiveness of WSPs on water quality and health. Iceland was one of the first countries to legislate the use of WSPs, enabling the analysis of more than a decade of data on impact of WSP. The objective was to determine the impact of WSP implementation on regulatory compliance, microbiological water quality, and incidence of clinical cases of diarrhea. Surveillance data on water quality and diarrhea were collected and analyzed. The results show that HPC (heterotrophic plate counts), representing microbiological growth in the water supply system, decreased statistically significant with fewer incidents of HPC exceeding 10 cfu per mL in samples following WSP implementation and noncompliance was also significantly reduced (p < 0.001 in both cases). A significant decrease in incidence of diarrhea was detected where a WSP was implemented, and, furthermore, the results indicate that population where WSP has been implemented is 14% less likely to develop clinical cases of diarrhea.

In a pandemic setting, surveillance is essential to monitor the spread of the disease and assess its impact. Appropriate mitigation and healthcare preparedness strategies depend on fast and accurate epidemic surveillance data. During the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, rapid improvements in influenza surveillance were made in Iceland. Here, we describe the improvements made in influenza surveillance during the pandemic , which could also be of great value in outbreaks caused by other pathogens. Following the raised level of pandemic influenza alert in April 2009, influenza surveillance was intensified. A comprehensive automatic surveillance system for influenza-like illness was developed, surveillance of influenza-related deaths was established and laboratory surveillance for influenza was strengthened. School absenteeism reports were also collected and compared with results from the automatic surveillance system. The first case of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) was diagnosed in Iceland in May 2009, but sustained community transmission was not confirmed until mid-August. The pandemic virus circulated during the summer and early autumn before an abrupt increase in the number of cases was observed in October. There were large outbreaks in elementary schools for children aged 6–15 years throughout the country that peaked in late October. School absenteeism reports from all elementary schools in Iceland gave a similar epidemiological curve as that from data from the healthcare system. Estimates of the proportion of the population infected with the pandemic virus ranged from 10% to 22%. This study shows how the sudden need for improved surveillance in the pandemic led to rapid improvements in data collection in Iceland. This reporting system will be improved upon and expanded to include other notifiable diseases, to ensure accurate and timely collection of epidemiological data.

Between 14 September and 20 October 2007, an outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157 simultaneously occurred in the Netherlands and Iceland. A total of 50 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported with a STEC O157 infection caused by the same clone. The strain was of type O157:H-, PT8, positive for stx1, stx2, eae and e-hly, and sorbitol negative. The most probable cause of this international outbreak was contaminated lettuce, shredded and pre-packed in a Dutch food processing plant. Samples of the environment, raw produce and end products, taken at several vegetable growers and processing plants all tested negative for STEC O157. However, the only epidemiological link between the cases in the Netherlands and in Iceland was the implicated Dutch processing plant. In Europe, food products are often widely distributed posing the risk of potential spread of food borne pathogens simultaneously to several countries. This international outbreak emphasises the importance of common alert and surveillance systems in earlier detection of international outbreaks and better assessment of their spread.

The International Circumpolar Surveillance System is a population-based surveillance network for invasive bacterial disease in the Arctic. The 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) was introduced for routine infant vaccination in Alaska (2001), northern Canada (2002-2006), and Norway (2006). Data for invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) were analyzed to identify clinical findings, disease rates, serotype distribution, and antimicrobial drug susceptibility; 11,244 IPD cases were reported. Pneumonia and bacteremia were common clinical findings. Rates of IPD among indigenous persons in Alaska and northern Canada were 43 and 38 cases per 100,000 population, respectively. Rates in children <2 years of age ranged from 21 to 153 cases per 100,000 population. In Alaska and northern Canada, IPD rates in children <2 years of age caused by PCV7 serotypes decreased by >80% after routine vaccination. IPD rates are high among indigenous persons and children in Arctic countries. After vaccine introduction, IPD caused by non-PCV7 serotypes increased in Alaska.

In 2 prospective studies, we previously reported on the early and accurate diagnosis of invasive candidiasis by determining the D-arabinitol/L-arabinitol (DA/LA) ratio in urine in neutropenic children with cancer at the paediatric oncology unit (POU) and in premature infants at the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) at our hospital. In this retrospective study at the same units, we report how the DA/LA assay was implemented in clinical practice immediately after the prospective study periods. We found that, in the POU, the recommendation of regularly monitoring urine DA/LA ratios in patients at risk and considering antifungal therapy in the case of elevated ratios had been followed. A significant decrease in the incidence of culture positive invasive candidiasis may have been attributed to the introduction of the DA/LA assay. At the NICU, where the DA/LA assay was recommended only as an adjunct to other diagnostic tools, morbidity in invasive candidiasis remained unchanged. While regular monitoring of the urine DA/LA ratio probably facilitates the early detection of invasive candidiasis in paediatric oncology, it remains to be determined if the test can be used in a similar way in neonatal intensive care.

Adult patients with hematologic malignancies along with HIV infected patients were prospectively studied to determine the performance of urine D-arabinitol/L-arabinitol (DA/LA) ratio in diagnosing invasive candidiasis. Ten evaluable febrile neutropenic patients had proven invasive candidiasis and elevated DA/LA ratios were found in 5. Invasive candidiasis with normal DA/LA ratios was most frequently due to Candida krusei infection. This Candida species is a non-producer of arabinitol. Only 4 of 81 febrile neutropenic patients given either antifungal prophylaxis or empiric antifungal treatment had elevated DA/LA ratios. Only 1 of 15 HIV positive patients with either oropharyngeal or esophageal candidiasis had elevated DA/LA ratios. Widespread use of fluconazole prophylaxis in bone marrow transplantation patients at the study hospital has led to an increased prevalence of C. krusei infection. This is the likely reason for the low sensitivity of the test in proven and suspected invasive Candida infections reported here.

The five-carbon sugar alcohol D-arabinitol (DA) is a metabolite of most pathogenic Candida species, in vitro as well as in vivo, and can be determined by gas chromatography or enzymatic analysis. Endogenous DA and L-arabinitol (LA) are present in human body fluids, and serum DA and LA increase in renal dysfunction. In prospective clinical studies, elevated DA/LA or DA/creatine ratios in serum or urine have been found in immunocompromised, usually neutropenic, patients with invasive candidiasis. In addition, positive DA results have been obtained several days to weeks before positive blood cultures, and the normalization of DA levels has been correlated with therapeutic response in both humans and animals. However, to date, only a few prospective studies have been conducted in which adequate analytical methods were used. Thus, further investigation of various patient groups is needed to establish the applicability of the 'arabinitol method' in the diagnostic battery for invasive Candida infections.