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An increase in energy demand in the coming years is inevitable, and therefore it is necessary to provide optimal solutions for this future need. This paper examines the future energy demands of the southern regions of Iran (with a hot and dry climate and high energy needs). In this regard, the overall structure of the research has been divided into three parts. In the first part, using historical energy consumption data, the energy demand in 2030 is predicted. This is carried out utilizing a time series analysis method, namely Holt–Winters. Then, relying on the plans of the Iran Ministry of Energy, various energy plans have been designed and energy modeling has been carried out for both base and forecast years. Finally, regarding a multi-criteria decision-making approach, energy plans are ranked and the best scenarios are selected and analyzed. The results of modeling and multi-criteria analysis showed that comprehensive and simultaneous development in the construction of thermal and renewable power plants is the best option to meet future energy needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking the advantages of alternative energy sources is currently a trending concept in the field of energy management. Meanwhile, microgrids and hybrid energy systems are of great importance due to their numerous benefits for both consumers and utility. This paper presents technical feasibility study of a hybrid energy system, including renewable and non-renewable resources and energy storage system, for electrification of a Disaster Management Basement located in Tehran, Iran. To simulate the potential power blackout caused by a disaster, the proposed system is simulated and optimized in off-grid mode, using HOMER simulation software. Since the disaster occurrence is unpredictable, while the system is simulated in a whole year, the results are analyzed in two winter and summer cases. Regarding reliability of the system, a sensitivity analysis is carried out. It was found that with diesel prices up to 0.5- 0.6 $/L, the only optimal power system is diesel generator. With prices more than this, wind and solar power sources should be added to the power system. As the main result of the paper, it was found that renewables can act as good backup power systems in cases of shortages in conventional energy resources to ensure high reliability of the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]