1. Temporal and Spatial Synchronicity in West Nile Virus Cases Along the Central Flyway, USA.
- Author
-
Hort, H. M., Ibaraki, M., and Schwartz, F. W.
- Subjects
WEST Nile virus ,COINCIDENCE ,WINTER ,PLAINS ,SNOW accumulation ,MIGRATORY birds ,SPRING ,AGRICULTURAL intensification - Abstract
This study of West Nile virus (WNV) examined the possibility of avian transmission to explain synchronicity in the year‐to‐year variability of WNV case numbers from Texas northward to the Dakotas, and reasons for the large case numbers on the northern Great Plains. We determined correlation coefficients between annual disease incidence per 100,000 people among states within the Great Plains Region, as well as the Central Flyway. There was spatial and temporal synchronicity, as evidenced by Pearson "r," with values along the core of the Central Flyway (Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota) varying between 0.69 and 0.79. Correlations for North Dakota (r = 0.6), however, were affected by local conditions. The concept of relative amplification is helpful in explaining why northerly states along the Central Flyway have larger annual case numbers per 100,000 than Texas but preserve the temporal signal. States differed in their capacity for amplifying the temporal signal in case numbers. For example, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota case numbers were commonly amplified relative to Texas, with Oklahoma and Kansas deamplified. Relative amplification factors for all states increased as a function of increasing case numbers in Texas. Thus, increased numbers of initially infected birds in Texas likely led to the rapid intensification of the zoonotic cycle as compared to more typical years. The study also confirmed the importance of winter weather in locally modulating disease cases. North Dakota appeared most impacted by these factors to the extent of reducing WNV case numbers in colder years and years with deep snow. Plain Language Summary: This study examined factors controlling broad patterns of transmission of West Nile virus (WNV) on the Great Plains of the United States. We found that yearly human case numbers are correlated both temporally and spatially from Texas northward. These findings support the idea that each year migratory birds were important in retransmitting WNV along the Central Flyway with Texas as the source of WNV and North Dakota and South Dakota as sinks. However, states differed in their capacity to enhance the temporal signal. In Oklahoma and Kansas, deamplification in case numbers relative to Texas was common except for the worst WNV years in Texas. For Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota case numbers were commonly amplified relative to Texas. Relative amplification factors for all states increased as a function of increasing case numbers per 100,000 in Texas. These patterns are likely controlled by virulence of the dominant Culex species and local habitat. In North Dakota, the winter climate may also affect human case numbers. Cold conditions reduce populations of over‐wintering mosquitoes and large snow accumulations modulate the springtime return of migratory birds. Such correlations between the local WNV disease cases and these factors may provide a robust, early screening tool for WNV. Key Points: Spatial and temporal synchronicity in human West Nile virus cases was observed along the Central FlywayA consistent pattern of amplification and deamplifications in human case numbers is evident along the Central Flyway as compared to TexasKey factors controlling trends include avian spread, vector competence, and local winter conditions, especially in North Dakota [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF