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Large-scale, high-input, and intensified agriculture poses threats to sustainable agroecosystems and their inherent biodiversity. The EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) covers a great number of nature conservation programs (Agri-Environment and Climate Measures, AECM) aiming to encourage sustainable agriculture. Currently, farmers are not encouraged to broadly implement these measures due to the lack of structured information, overly complicated and unclear application procedures, and a high risk of sanctions. In addition, the current structures are associated with time-consuming monitoring and control procedures for the paying agencies. Digital technologies can offer valuable assistance to circumvent relevant barriers and limitations and support a broader uptake of AECM. NatApp is a digital tool that supports and guides farmers through the complete process of choosing, applying, implementing, and documenting AECM on their fields in accordance with legal requirements in Germany. We introduce the concept of NatApp and analyze how it can simplify and encourage the uptake and implementation of AECM. This study identifies its unique features for the provision of information and documentation opportunities compared with other digital farming tools focused on sustainable agriculture and outline how it can support farmers to actively contribute to more sustainable agriculture. “Cross-federal state implementation study on the use of the nature conservation app (NatApp) in agricultural and administrative practice-NatApp 2.0”

The agri-food system is a vital and complex social-ecological system characterized by interactions between humans and the environment. For such systems, qualitative scenarios (QS) can generate pictures of possible futures, which combined with quantitative modelling allow identifying pathways towards improved resilience and exploring system uncertainties. However, the interpretation of qualitative narratives into quantitative simulation parameters remains challenging due to system complexity. In this study, we translate QS into quantitative agent-based model (ABM) parameters and estimate the likelihood of each scenario in the evolved agri-food system in response to individual actions. We implement a five-step approach consisting of: i) the generation of the QS, ii) the parameterization of the ABM iii) the translation of scenario assumptions into ABM parameters, iv) the validation of our results via an expert workshop, v) the assessment of the scenarios in the evolved system. The results of an illustrative example reveal that, with the implementation of cropping diversification, the system will evolve to a combination of scenario 1, 2, 3 and 4 at probabilities of 9 %, 35 %, 30 % and 26 %, respectively, which change under different management options. Overall, we conclude that QS-ABM combination is a promising approach to provide robust quantitative projections of the agri-food system future.

This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.

We investigate the extent to which future energy transformation pathways meeting ambitious climate change mitigation targets depend on assumptions about economic growth and fossil fuel availability. The analysis synthesizes results from the RoSE multi-model study aiming to identify robust and sensitive features of mitigation pathways under these inherently uncertain drivers of energy and emissions developments. Based on an integrated assessment model comparison exercise, we show that economic growth and fossil resource assumptions substantially affect baseline developments, but in no case they lead to the significant greenhouse gas emission reduction that would be needed to achieve long-term climate targets without dedicated climate policy. The influence of economic growth and fossil resource assumptions on climate mitigation pathways is relatively small due to overriding requirements imposed by long-term climate targets. While baseline assumptions can have substantial effects on mitigation costs and carbon prices, we find that the effects of model differences and the stringency of the climate target are larger compared to that of baseline assumptions. We conclude that inherent uncertainties about socio-economic determinants like economic growth and fossil resource availability can be effectively dealt with in the assessment of mitigation pathways.

Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO2-emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.

International audience; Bio-economic models can be used to assess the impact of policy and environmental measures through economic and environmental indicators. Focusing on agricultural systems, farmers’ decisions in terms of cropping systems and the associated crop management at field scale are essential in such studies. The objective of this paper is to present a study using a bio-economic model to assess the impact of the Nitrate Directive in the Midi-Pyrenees region (France) by analyzing, at the farm scale, farm income and three environmental indicators: nitrate leaching, erosion and water consumption. Two scenarios, the 2003 CAP reform (baseline scenario) and the Nitrate Directive (policy scenario), with a 2013 time horizon, were developed and compared for three representative arable farm types in the Midi-Pyrenees region. Different types of data characterizing the biophysical context in the region (soil, climate), the current cropping systems (rotation, crop management) and farm resources (irrigated land, labor) were collected to calibrate and run the models. Results showed that the implementation of the Nitrate Directive may not affect farm income. However, significant modifications to cropping systems and crop allocation to soil types were simulated. Contrary to expectations, nitrogen leaching at the farm scale did not change. Overall water consumption increased and soil erosion decreased due mainly to a modification in cropping patterns and management by soil type. This study provides an example of unanticipated effects of policy and trade-offs between environmental issues.

This paper looks into the regional mitigation strategies of five major economies (China, EU, India, Japan, and USA) in the context of the 2°C target, using a multi-model comparison. In order to stay in line with the 2°C target, a tripling or quadrupling of mitigation ambitions is required in all regions by 2050, employing vigorous decarbonization of the energy supply system and achieving negative emissions during the second half of the century. In all regions looked at, decarbonization of energy supply (and in particular power generation) is more important than reducing energy demand. Some differences in abatement strategies across the regions are projected: In India and the USA the emphasis is on prolonging fossil fuel use by coupling conventional technologies with carbon storage, whereas the other main strategy depicts a shift to carbon-neutral technologies with mostly renewables (China, EU) or nuclear power (Japan). Regions with access to large amounts of biomass, such as the USA, China, and the EU, can make a trade-off between energy related emissions and land related emissions, as the use of bioenergy can lead to a net increase in land use emissions. After supply-side changes, the most important abatement strategy focuses on end-use efficiency improvements, leading to considerable emission reductions in both the industry and transport sectors across all regions. Abatement strategies for non- CO 2 emissions and land use emissions are found to have a smaller potential. Inherent model, as well as collective, biases have been observed affecting the regional response strategy or the available reduction potential in specific (end-use) sectors.

Although our knowledge of climate change impacts on energy systems has increased substantially over the past few decades, there remains a lack of comprehensive overview of impacts across spatial scales. Here, we analyse results of 220 studies projecting climate impacts on energy systems globally and at the regional scale. Globally, a potential increase in cooling demand and decrease in heating demand can be anticipated, in contrast to slight decreases in hydropower and thermal energy capacity. Impacts at the regional scale are more mixed and relatively uncertain across regions, but strongest impacts are reported for South Asia and Latin America. Our assessment shows that climate impacts on energy systems at regional and global scales are uncertain due partly to the wide range of methods and non-harmonized datasets used. For a comprehensive assessment of climate impacts on energy, we propose a consistent multi-model assessment framework to support regional-to-global-scale energy planning.