12 results on '"Jeffrey B. Nugent"'
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2. Management of Oil Revenues: Has That of Azerbaijan Been Prudent?
- Author
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Sarvar Gurbanov, Jeffrey B. Nugent, and Jeyhun Mikayilov
- Subjects
oil windfall gains ,government capital expenditures ,non-oil diversification ,industrial policy ,sovereign wealth funds ,Azerbaijan ,Economics as a science ,HB71-74 - Abstract
To help explain the common failure of oil or other natural resource exporting countries to diversify into industry, it has been common to trace this failure to real exchange rate appreciation. This has also been done in Azerbaijan. However, because Azerbaijan has devoted so much of its oil revenues to government investment, Azerbaijan provides a suitable case for examining an alternative link through government investment. This study applies the ARDL cointegration method to quarterly time series data on oil prices, government capital formation, non-oil exports and non-oil GDP to estimate the long run relationships linking oil prices to government investment expenditures and further to generation of non-oil GDP. The results show that despite the massive government investment expenditures, extremely little non-oil production of the tradable type has been generated, calling attention to the need for policy reform.
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. A Mixed Application of Geographically Weighted Regression and Unsupervised Classification for Analyzing Latex Yield Variability in Yunnan, China
- Author
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Oh Seok Kim, Jeffrey B. Nugent, Zhuang-Fang Yi, Joshua P. Newell, and Andrew J. Curtis
- Subjects
agricultural yield ,mixed method ,geographically weighted regression ,iterative self-organizing data analysis technique ,rubber plantation ,Xishuangbanna ,Mekong region ,Plant ecology ,QK900-989 - Abstract
This paper introduces a mixed method approach for analyzing the determinants of natural latex yields and the associated spatial variations and identifying the most suitable regions for producing latex. Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWR) and Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique (ISODATA) are jointly applied to the georeferenced data points collected from the rubber plantations in Xishuangbanna (in Yunnan province, south China) and other remotely-sensed spatial data. According to the GWR models, Age of rubber tree, Percent of clay in soil, Elevation, Solar radiation, Population, Distance from road, Distance from stream, Precipitation, and Mean temperature turn out statistically significant, indicating that these are the major determinants shaping latex yields at the prefecture level. However, the signs and magnitudes of the parameter estimates at the aggregate level are different from those at the lower spatial level, and the differences are due to diverse reasons. The ISODATA classifies the landscape into three categories: high, medium, and low potential yields. The map reveals that Mengla County has the majority of land with high potential yield, while Jinghong City and Menghai County show lower potential yield. In short, the mixed method can offer a means of providing greater insights in the prediction of agricultural production.
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Time-varying impact of oil shocks on trade balances: Evidence using the TVP-VAR model
- Author
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Jeffrey B. Nugent, Esra Balli, Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık, and Ege Üniversitesi
- Subjects
China ,Forecast error ,Time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) ,020209 energy ,Balance of trade ,Trade balance ,02 engineering and technology ,Monetary economics ,Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering ,Vector autoregression ,Russia ,Current account balance ,020401 chemical engineering ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Economics ,Stochastic volatility ,0204 chemical engineering ,Electrical and Electronic Engineering ,Civil and Structural Engineering ,Oil shocks ,Mechanical Engineering ,Building and Construction ,Current account ,Pollution ,General Energy ,Demand shock ,Oil demand ,Oil price - Abstract
This paper investigates the effects of oil supply and demand shocks on the current account balances of China and Russia for the period between the first quarter of 1993 and the third quarter of 2018 using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility. To facilitate comprehension of the results and to anchor them in well-known events, this analysis focuses on two countries with different oil trade characteristics-Russia as an oil exporter and China as an oil importer. We find that identifying their sources plays an important role in understanding the impact of oil price shocks on trade balances. The results indicate that oil demand shocks have a much larger effect on trade balances and are more attributable to oil price shocks than oil supply shocks. Due to their different positions in the global oil market-one an oil exporter and the other, an oil importer-China's and Russia's individual responses differ substantially. in line with findings regarding impulse responses, the time-varying forecast error decompositions demonstrate that both oil supply and demand shocks have their greatest influence during and immediately after periods of crisis. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved., Ege University Planning and Monitoring Coordination of Organizational Development; Directorate of Library and Documentation, We are grateful to Ege University Planning and Monitoring Coordination of Organizational Development and Directorate of Library and Documentation for their support in editing and proofreading service of this study.
- Published
- 2021
5. Tunisia's Economic Development : Why Better Than Most of the Middle East but Not East Asia
- Author
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Mustapha K. Nabli, Jeffrey B. Nugent, Mustapha K. Nabli, and Jeffrey B. Nugent
- Subjects
- HC820
- Abstract
This book identifies the differences in growth and development, and the various factors lying behind them, across both Middle East and North African (MENA) and East Asian countries over the 1960‒2020 period. It considers a very wide range of factors, compares initial situations, institutions, and government policies, the dynamic responses to changing circumstances, and discusses the inability of the governments of the MENA region to achieve not only political reform, but also the kinds of economic reform that would allow their citizens to prosper in an increasingly globalized world. The book focuses on Tunisia. Since its independence in 1956 until 2010, Tunisia had considerable success relative to many other MENA countries, but was somewhat less successful relative to East Asian countries. Since 2010, however, while transitioning away from autocracy to democracy, it has been in rather serious economic decline. The book highlights how both the factors identified as enabling Tunisia's initial success and those leading to its subsequent decline can provide many useful insights for improving the management of economic development across the whole MENA region and perhaps also to developing countries throughout the world.
- Published
- 2022
6. Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies
- Author
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Kamiar Mohaddes, Jeffrey B. Nugent, Hoda Selim, Kamiar Mohaddes, Jeffrey B. Nugent, and Hoda Selim
- Subjects
- Petroleum industry and trade--Arab countries, Economic history, Economic policy, Petroleum industry and trade
- Abstract
For over eighty years the Arab region has been deriving massive wealth from its natural resources. Nevertheless, its economic performance has been at the mercy of ebbs and flows of oil prices and its resources have been slowly depleting. The two critical questions are why and how Arab countries might escape the oil curse. Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies focuses on the unique features of the Arab world to explain the disappointing outcomes of macroeconomic policy. It explores the interaction between oil and institutions to draw policy recommendations on how Arab countries can best exploit their oil revenues to avoid the resource curse. Case studies and contributions from experts provide an understanding of macroeconomic institutions (including their underlying rules, procedures and institutional arrangements) in oil-rich Arab economies and of their political economy environment, which has largely been overlooked in previous research. Institutions and Macroeconomic Policies in Resource-Rich Arab Economies offers novel macroeconomic policy propositions for exchange rate regimes, fiscal policy and oil wealth distribution that is more consistent with macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability. These policy reforms, if implemented successfully, could go a long way in helping the resource-rich countries of the Arab region and elsewhere to avoid the oil curse.
- Published
- 2019
7. Management of oil revenues: Has that of Azerbaijan been prudent?
- Author
-
Jeffrey B. Nugent, Jeyhun I. Mikayilov, and Sarvar Gurbanov
- Subjects
Macroeconomics ,Azerbaijan ,Q43 ,O23 ,020209 energy ,Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) ,02 engineering and technology ,Monetary economics ,Development ,Industrial policy ,Q01 ,O25 ,Exchange rate ,Dutch Disease ,government capital expenditures ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Economics ,ddc:330 ,Revenue ,H54 ,industrial policy ,O53 ,Government ,Cointegration ,Q32 ,sovereign wealth funds ,lcsh:HB71-74 ,L52 ,lcsh:Economics as a science ,oil windfall gains ,Investment (macroeconomics) ,Capital formation ,Sovereign wealth fund ,non-oil diversification - Abstract
To help explain the common failure of oil or other natural resource exporting countries to diversify into industry, it has been common to trace this failure to real exchange rate appreciation. This has also been done in Azerbaijan. However, because Azerbaijan has devoted so much of its oil revenues to government investment, Azerbaijan provides a suitable case for examining an alternative link through government investment. This study applies the ARDL cointegration method to quarterly time series data on oil prices, government capital formation, non-oil exports and non-oil GDP to estimate the long run relationships linking oil prices to government investment expenditures and further to generation of non-oil GDP. The results show that despite the massive government investment expenditures, extremely little non-oil production of the tradable type has been generated, calling attention to the need for policy reform.
- Published
- 2017
8. Bahrain and the Gulf : Past, Perspectives and Alternative Futures
- Author
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Jeffrey B. Nugent, Theodore H. Thomas, Jeffrey B. Nugent, and Theodore H. Thomas
- Subjects
- HC415.38
- Abstract
After the oil discoveries of the early 1930s, Bahrain rapidly became an oil exporting country with a relatively high income per capita. More recently Bahrain has succeeded in diversifying its oil dominated economy by developing regional banking and other services, and a variety of light and heavy industries. Various circumstances have combined to make Bahrain a leader among the Arab Gulf States in the transformation of traditional Arabic tribal societies into modern social and economic structures. This book, first published in 1985, in exploring the past, present and possible futures of Bahrain and the Gulf, attempts to describe the nature of this transformation. It estimates to what extent Bahrain has merely an outward appearance of modernity, and explores the conflicts between the compelling power of modern values and the pervasive traditional religions. Bahrain is not typical of the Arab countries of the Gulf; it may, however, serve as a gauge of their current position and likely future. It will therefore be valuable to those interested in gaining more insight into the history and politics of the Middle East during this period of rapid change.
- Published
- 2016
9. Fulfilling the Export Potential of Small and Medium Firms
- Author
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Brian Levy, Albert Berry, Jeffrey B. Nugent, Brian Levy, Albert Berry, and Jeffrey B. Nugent
- Subjects
- Management, Economic development, Economic policy, International economic relations, Entrepreneurship, New business enterprises
- Abstract
Fulfilling the Export Potential of Small and Medium Firms addresses the question, `How can economic policy contribute to a strong export performance by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in developing countries?'In today's increasingly integrated world economy, such a performance can make a significant difference to the growth, employment creation and income distribution of many developing countries. The study uses information from specifically designed surveys of SME exporters in Japan, Indonesia, Korea and Colombia, together with a range of evidence from other sources, to ascertain what types of support within the areas of technology, marketing and finance are most useful to SME exporters and how such support can best be provided to them. The quality of the support systems is found to vary widely among the four countries. Finally, a number of policy conclusions are put forward.
- Published
- 2012
10. PartⅢ: Genenral Commentaries and a Conclusion : Chapter 8: Genenral Discussion by Panelists Commentaries
- Author
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Koichi, Ohono, Fukunari, Kimura, Jeffrey, B. Nugent, Akira, Kohsaka, and Kaushik, Basu
- Published
- 2002
11. Trade Policy and Economic Integration in the Middle East and North Africa : Economic Boundaries in Flux
- Author
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Hassan Hakimian, Jeffrey B Nugent, Hassan Hakimian, and Jeffrey B Nugent
- Subjects
- HF1583.3
- Abstract
The recent globalization trends have revived a long-standing interest in regional integration in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Despite numerous attempts to encourage economic integration in MENA in the past few decades, there is broad consensus that progress has been painstakingly slow and the record of economic integration in the MENA region largely beset by failure.This book examines the impact of recent changes in the world economy on trade policy within the MENA region and its economic relations with the rest of the world. It considers regional integration and prospects for trade blocs; trade liberalization and economic restructuring; resource endowments and employment trends; and changes in economic boundaries, especially as a result of labour migration and regional conflicts.
- Published
- 2004
12. The New Institutional Economics and Development : Theory and Applications to Tunisia
- Author
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M.K. Nabli, Jeffrey B. Nugent, M.K. Nabli, and Jeffrey B. Nugent
- Subjects
- Institutional economics, Social groups, Economic development
- Abstract
The New Institutional Economics (NIE) and its two main branches, namely, the theory of transaction cost and contractual choice on the one hand, and that of collective action on the other, broaden the analytical framework of mainstream economics. In doing so the NIE attempts to explain the institutional phenomena which, although almost universally recognised as important, have previously eluded the group of economists. This book is concerned with the NIE and its possible application to Development Economics. It has two specific objectives. The first is to show the relevance and assess the applicability of the principles and insights of the NIE to the analysis of the problems of the LDC's. The second is to provide another set of applications and empirical investigations of the NIE. By combining the relevant theoretical background with applications, the book is self-contained and presented in such a way as to be accessible to each of the following types of reader: (1) development economists and practitioners (2) readers interested in institutions and the NIE (3) regional specialists in North Africa and in countries such as Tunisia and (4) those interested in political economy.
- Published
- 1989
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