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Point processes are probabilistic tools for modelling event data. While there exists a fast-growing literature on the relationships between point processes, how such relationships connect to causal effects remains unexplored. In the presence of unmeasured confounders, parameters from point process models do not necessarily have causal interpretations. We propose an instrumental variable method for causal inference with point process treatment and outcome. We define causal quantities based on potential outcomes and establish nonparametric identification results with a binary instrumental variable. We extend the traditional Wald estimation to deal with point process treatment and outcome, showing that it should be performed after a Fourier transform of the intention-to-treat effects on the treatment and outcome, and thus takes the form of deconvolution. We refer to this approach as generalized Wald estimation and propose an estimation strategy based on well-established deconvolution methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To explore the appropriate treatment strategies, clinical outcomes, and prognostic factors of patients with pulmonary‐limited metastases derived from colorectal cancer (CRC), usually manifested as a less aggressive course. Methods: A retrospective review was conducted in 331 CRC patients diagnosed with pulmonary‐limited metastases at a single institution between January 2011 and November 2017. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to calculate the overall survival (OS). Further analysis was conducted according to treatment modalities. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine potential prognostic factors influencing OS. Results: With a median follow‐up time of 38.6 months, the median OS in all patients was 45.2 months. A total of 163 patients received intensive local treatment with a median OS of 76.4 months, whereas 168 patients received palliative systemic treatment with a median OS of 29.7 months. The median OS was 68.9 months for patients treated with radiotherapy/radiofrequency ablation, with similar efficacy compared to surgery group, whose OS had not reached yet. No survival benefits were observed from the additional targeted therapy in systemic treatment group. The prognostic analysis demonstrated unilateral/bilateral lesions, synchronous/metachronous metastases, intensive local treatment, and resection of primary lesion that were significantly associated with survival of patients. Conclusions: Intensive local treatment alone for pulmonary lesions was associated with excellent survival in certain patients with CRC presented with metastases confined to lungs. Doublet systemic chemotherapy as the first‐line treatment also revealed satisfied efficacy and safety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The activation, by residual stress, of the fast portion of rotational motion of single fluorescent probe molecules inside a polymer thin film near its glass transition temperature is studied at a single molecular level. Spin-casted poly n-butyl methacrylate thin films without thermal annealing are chosen as the model system and single molecule fluorescence defocused microscopy is adopted as the method. The rotational motion of the probes under residual stress is found to be more activated than that under mere thermal activation, and the kinetic energy exhibits a monotonic increase with the stress strength. A rough linear dependence of rotational kinetic energy at low stress is found, yielding the value of characteristic volume for the residual stress to activate the motion of the probes. The values of the volume are close to the van der Waals volume of the probes, indicating that the activation of the fast dynamics by residual stress is localized. The activation effect is weakened and vanishes at or above the glass transition temperature due to stress relaxation. The effect is also absent at temperatures far below Tg due to the frozen molecular motion with a much higher activation energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two‐stage randomized experiments become an increasingly popular experimental design for causal inference when the outcome of one unit may be affected by the treatment assignments of other units in the same cluster. In this paper, we provide a methodological framework for general tools of statistical inference and power analysis for two‐stage randomized experiments. Under the randomization‐based framework, we consider the estimation of a new direct effect of interest as well as the average direct and spillover effects studied in the literature. We provide unbiased estimators of these causal quantities and their conservative variance estimators in a general setting. Using these results, we then develop hypothesis testing procedures and derive sample size formulas. We theoretically compare the two‐stage randomized design with the completely randomized and cluster randomized designs, which represent two limiting designs. Finally, we conduct simulation studies to evaluate the empirical performance of our sample size formulas. For empirical illustration, the proposed methodology is applied to the randomized evaluation of the Indian National Health Insurance Program. An open‐source software package is available for implementing the proposed methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This consideration is critical in our study because judges' decisions can affect individual arrestees. Instead of engaging with this philosophical debate, we examine Dawid's recommendation to use the statistical decision theory for answering the following questions: (1) 'should we present PSA to the judge before she makes her decision, or not? As explained above, to decide on the use of PSA, policy makers need to understand if PSA helps judges achieve their goal of preventing a negative outcome while avoiding unnecessarily harsh decisions. Finally, several commentators asked why our study design did not involve blinding of judges either to the intervention or to the fact of the study. [Extracted from the article]

Despite an increasing reliance on fully-automated algorithmic decision-making in our day-to-day lives, humans still make consequential decisions. While the existing literature focuses on the bias and fairness of algorithmic recommendations, an overlooked question is whether they improve human decisions. We develop a general statistical methodology for experimentally evaluating the causal impacts of algorithmic recommendations on human decisions. We also examine whether algorithmic recommendations improve the fairness of human decisions and derive the optimal decision rules under various settings. We apply the proposed methodology to the first-ever randomized controlled trial that evaluates the pretrial Public Safety Assessment in the United States criminal justice system. Our analysis of the preliminary data shows that providing the PSA to the judge has little overall impact on the judge's decisions and subsequent arrestee behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Manski (Monotone treatment response. Econometrica 1997;65:1311–34) and Manski and Pepper (Monotone instrumental variables: with an application to the returns to schooling. Econometrica 2000;68:997–1010) gave sharp bounds on causal effects under the assumptions of monotone treatment response (MTR) and monotone treatment selection (MTS). VanderWeele (The sign of the bias of unmeasured confounding. Biometrics 2008;64:702–6) provided bounds for binary treatment under an assumption of monotone confounding (MC). We discuss the relation between MC and MTS and provide bounds under various combinations of these assumptions. We show that MC and MTS coincide for a binary treatment, but MC does not imply MTS for a treatment variable with more than two levels.

The dynamic behavior of a new financial system with diffusion effect and two delays is studied. The local stability of equilibrium is studied by analyzing the corresponding characteristic equation and developing the crossing curve method. Hopf bifurcation curves are obtained by three procedures and the critical value of delay of Hopf bifurcation is obtained. By using the central manifold theorem and the normal form theory of partial differential equations, the normal form of Hopf bifurcation with two delays is derived, and the bifurcation direction and the stability of periodic solution are determined. The numerical simulations not only verify these theoretical results, but also show that double Hopf bifurcation may occur and the two delays play a key role in chaos suppression. This study has important theoretical value of innovation and practical value in the macro-economic system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]