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Background The World Health Organization (WHO) has reframed health and healthcare for older people around achieving the goal of healthy ageing. The recent WHO Integrated Care for Older People (ICOPE) guidelines focus on maintaining intrinsic capacity, i.e., addressing declines in neuromusculoskeletal, vitality, sensory, cognitive, psychological, and continence domains, aiming to prevent or delay the onset of dependence. The target group with 1 or more declines in intrinsic capacity (DICs) is broad, and implementation may be challenging in less-resourced settings. We aimed to inform planning by assessing intrinsic capacity prevalence, by characterising the target group, and by validating the general approach—testing hypotheses that DIC was consistently associated with higher risks of incident dependence and death. Methods and findings We conducted population-based cohort studies (baseline, 2003–2007) in urban sites in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela, and rural and urban sites in Peru, Mexico, India, and China. Door-knocking identified eligible participants, aged 65 years and over and normally resident in each geographically defined catchment area. Sociodemographic, behaviour and lifestyle, health, and healthcare utilisation and cost questionnaires, and physical assessments were administered to all participants, with incident dependence and mortality ascertained 3 to 5 years later (2008–2010). In 12 sites in 8 countries, 17,031 participants were surveyed at baseline. Overall mean age was 74.2 years, range of means by site 71.3–76.3 years; 62.4% were female, range 53.4%–67.3%. At baseline, only 30% retained full capacity across all domains. The proportion retaining capacity fell sharply with increasing age, and declines affecting multiple domains were more common. Poverty, morbidity (particularly dementia, depression, and stroke), and disability were concentrated among those with DIC, although only 10% were frail, and a further 9% had needs for care. Hypertension and lifestyle risk factors for chronic disease, and healthcare utilisation and costs, were more evenly distributed in the population. In total, 15,901 participants were included in the mortality cohort (2,602 deaths/53,911 person-years of follow-up), and 12,939 participants in the dependence cohort (1,896 incident cases/38,320 person-years). One or more DICs strongly and independently predicted incident dependence (pooled adjusted subhazard ratio 1.91, 95% CI 1.69–2.17) and death (pooled adjusted hazard ratio 1.66, 95% CI 1.49–1.85). Relative risks were higher for those who were frail, but were also substantially elevated for the much larger sub-groups yet to become frail. Mortality was mainly concentrated in the frail and dependent sub-groups. The main limitations were potential for DIC exposure misclassification and attrition bias. Conclusions In this study we observed a high prevalence of DICs, particularly in older age groups. Those affected had substantially increased risks of dependence and death. Most needs for care arose in those with DIC yet to become frail. Our findings provide some support for the strategy of optimising intrinsic capacity in pursuit of healthy ageing. Implementation at scale requires community-based screening and assessment, and a stepped-care intervention approach, with redefined roles for community healthcare workers and efforts to engage, train, and support them in these tasks. ICOPE might be usefully integrated into community programmes for detecting and case managing chronic diseases including hypertension and diabetes., In a population-based cohort study, Martin J. Prince and colleagues evaluate intrinsic capacity and its associations with incident dependence and mortality in Latin America, India and China., Author summary Why was this study done? As we grow older, we are affected to different degrees by declines in the working of our organs and body systems, limiting our ability to get around, be well nourished, see, hear, and think clearly, stay continent, and maintain mood and well-being. The World Health Organization has proposed a programme—Integrated Care for Older People (ICOPE)—supported by evidence that simple interventions may slow or reverse these processes, with potential to improve health and functioning and delay needs for care developing among older people. ICOPE targets low- and middle-income countries, but we do not yet know how many older people in these settings are significantly affected by early age-related decline, or whether these changes predict who will go on to deteriorate further, leading to needs for care and earlier death. What did the researchers do and find? We had already completed (between 2003 and 2007) baseline community surveys of 17,031 people aged 65 years and over living in 12 urban and rural sites in 6 Latin American countries, India, and China; we then tried to interview them again 3 to 5 years later (between 2008 and 2010) to identify who had died (in 11 sites, among 15,901 older people) and who had developed needs for care (in 10 sites, among 12,939 older people). Analysing baseline data from these studies, we found that between two-thirds and three-quarters of older people were affected by significant decline in at least 1 of the areas targeted by the ICOPE programme; this proportion was highest among the older old, who were also more likely to have problems in multiple areas. Most (nearly three-quarters) of those with significant decline at baseline had not yet gone on to become physically frail or develop needs for care; they were nevertheless 1.7 to 1.9 times more likely than those without any significant decline to develop needs for care over the follow-up period, and 1.3 to 1.4 times more likely to have died. What do these findings mean? Delivering comprehensive assessment, care planning, and community interventions to up to three-quarters of the older population would be a major challenge for poorly resourced health systems in low- and middle-income countries. Nevertheless, findings from our analyses support the World Health Organization’s strategy to promote health and well-being by targeting a broad group with early decline who do seem to be at increased risk of adverse outcomes. Future research should focus upon feasible, acceptable, and efficient methods of delivering the ICOPE programme (implementation science) and its effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in improving health and social outcomes (controlled trials). The main limitations were that health declines were measured in different ways, some of which may have been imprecise, and those who could not be followed up may have had different characteristics to those who were included in the analysis.

Background Cuba’s life expectancy at 79 is third highest in Latin America. Many attribute this to social investments in health and education, but comparative research is sparse, thus we compare Cuba with neighboring Dominican Republic, Costa Rica due to its strong social protections, and the U.S. Given high cardiovascular mortality, we focus on cardiovascular risk factor levels. To assess the role of health care, we distinguish medically amenable biomarkers from behavioral risk factors. To assess the role of Cuba’s focus on equity, we compare education gradients in risk factors. Methods We analyze Cuban data from the 10/66 Dementia Research Group baseline survey of urban adults ages 65 plus. Comparison samples are drawn from the Dominican Republic 10/66 survey, the Costa Rican CRELES, and U.S. NHANES. We analyze cross-country levels and education gradients of medically amenable (hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, access to health care) and behavioral (smoking, obesity) risk factors,–using sex-stratified weighted means comparisons and age-adjusted logistic regression. Results Neither medically amenable nor behavioral risk factors are uniformly better in Cuba than comparison countries. Obesity is lower in Cuba, but male smoking is higher. Hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia levels are high in all countries, though Cuba’s are lower than Costa Rica. Hypertension awareness in Cuba is similar to Costa Rica. Cuba has a higher proportion of hypertensives on treatment than Costa Rica, though lower than the U.S. Comparative gradients by education are similarly mixed. For behavioral factors, Cuba shows the strongest gradients (primarily for men) among the countries compared: smoking improves, but obesity worsens with education. Hypertension awareness also improves with education in Cuba, but Cuba shows no significant differences by education in hypertension treatment. Conclusion Smoking is comparatively high in Cuba, but obesity is low, and the resulting biomarkers show comparatively mixed patterns. Cuba’s social protections have not eliminated strong educational gradients in behavioral risk factors, but the healthcare system appears to have eliminated disparities such as in hypertension treatment.

Background Dementia shows sex difference in its epidemiology. Childbirth, a distinctive experience of women, is associated with the risk for various diseases. However, its association with the risk of dementia in women has rarely been studied. Methods We harmonized and pooled baseline data from 11 population-based cohorts from 11 countries over 3 continents, including 14,792 women aged 60 years or older. We investigated the association between parity and the risk of dementia using logistic regression models that adjusted for age, educational level, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and cohort, with additional analyses by region and dementia subtype. Results Across all cohorts, grand multiparous (5 or more childbirths) women had a 47% greater risk of dementia than primiparous (1 childbirth) women (odds ratio [OR] = 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.10–1.94), while nulliparous (no childbirth) women and women with 2 to 4 childbirths showed a comparable dementia risk to primiparous women. However, there were differences associated with region and dementia subtype. Compared to women with 1 to 4 childbirths, grand multiparous women showed a higher risk of dementia in Europe (OR = 2.99, 95% CI = 1.38–6.47) and Latin America (OR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.04–2.12), while nulliparous women showed a higher dementia risk in Asia (OR = 2.15, 95% CI = 1.33–3.47). Grand multiparity was associated with 6.9-fold higher risk of vascular dementia in Europe (OR = 6.86, 95% CI = 1.81–26.08), whereas nulliparity was associated with a higher risk of Alzheimer disease (OR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.07–3.39) and non-Alzheimer non-vascular dementia (OR = 3.47, 95% CI = 1.44–8.35) in Asia. Conclusion Parity is associated with women’s risk of dementia, though this is not uniform across regions and dementia subtypes.

We aimed to examine the relationship between Apolipoprotein E ε4 (APOE*4) carriage on cognitive decline, and whether these associations were moderated by sex, baseline age, ethnicity, and vascular risk factors. Participants were 19,225 individuals aged 54–103 years from 15 longitudinal cohort studies with a mean follow-up duration ranging between 1.2 and 10.7 years. Two-step individual participant data meta-analysis was used to pool results of study-wise analyses predicting memory and general cognitive decline from carriage of one or two APOE*4 alleles, and moderation of these associations by age, sex, vascular risk factors, and ethnicity. Separate pooled estimates were calculated in both men and women who were younger (ie, 62 years) and older (ie, 80 years) at baseline. Results showed that APOE*4 carriage was related to faster general cognitive decline in women, and faster memory decline in men. A stronger dose-dependent effect was observed in older men, with faster general cognitive and memory decline in those carrying two versus one APOE*4 allele. Vascular risk factors were related to an increased effect of APOE*4 on memory decline in younger women, but a weaker effect of APOE*4 on general cognitive decline in older men. The relationship between APOE*4 carriage and memory decline was larger in older-aged Asians than Whites. In sum, APOE*4 is related to cognitive decline in men and women, although these effects are enhanced by age and carriage of two APOE*4 alleles in men, a higher numbers of vascular risk factors during the early stages of late adulthood in women, and Asian ethnicity.

Background: To date, dementia prediction models have been exclusively developed and tested in high-income countries (HICs). However, most people with dementia live in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where dementia risk prediction research is almost non-existent and the ability of current models to predict dementia is unknown. This study investigated whether dementia prediction models developed in HICs are applicable to LMICs. Methods: Data were from the 10/66 Study. Individuals aged 65 years or older and without dementia at baseline were selected from China, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Peru, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela. Dementia incidence was assessed over 3–5 years, with diagnosis according to the 10/66 Study diagnostic algorithm. Discrimination and calibration were tested for five models: the Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging and Dementia risk score (CAIDE); the Study on Aging, Cognition and Dementia (AgeCoDe) model; the Australian National University Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI); the Brief Dementia Screening Indicator (BDSI); and the Rotterdam Study Basic Dementia Risk Model (BDRM). Models were tested with use of Cox regression. The discriminative accuracy of each model was assessed using Harrell's concordance (c)-statistic, with a value of 0·70 or higher considered to indicate acceptable discriminative ability. Calibration (model fit) was assessed statistically using the Grønnesby and Borgan test. Findings: 11 143 individuals without baseline dementia and with available follow-up data were included in the analysis. During follow-up (mean 3·8 years [SD 1·3]), 1069 people progressed to dementia across all sites (incidence rate 24·9 cases per 1000 person-years). Performance of the models varied. Across countries, the discriminative ability of the CAIDE (0·52≤c≤0·63) and AgeCoDe (0·57≤c≤0·74) models was poor. By contrast, the ANU-ADRI (0·66≤c≤0·78), BDSI (0·62≤c≤0·78), and BDRM (0·66≤c≤0·78) models showed similar levels of discriminative ability to those of the development cohorts. All models showed good calibration, especially at low and intermediate levels of predicted risk. The models validated best in Peru and poorest in the Dominican Republic and China. Interpretation: Not all dementia prediction models developed in HICs can be simply extrapolated to LMICs. Further work defining what number and which combination of risk variables works best for predicting risk of dementia in LMICs is needed. However, models that transport well could be used immediately for dementia prevention research and targeted risk reduction in LMICs. Funding: National Institute for Health Research, Wellcome Trust, WHO, US Alzheimer's Association, and European Research Council.

BackgroundThe World Health Organization has reframed health and healthcare for older people around achieving the goal of healthy ageing. Recent evidence-based guidelines on Integrated Care for Older People focus on maintaining intrinsic capacity, addressing declines in mobility, nutrition, vision and hearing, cognition, mood and continence aiming to prevent or delay the onset of care dependence. The target group (with one or more declines in intrinsic capacity) is broad, and implementation at scale may be challenging in less-resourced settings.Planning can be informed by assessing the prevalence of intrinsic capacity, characterising the target group, and validating the general approach by evaluating risk prediction for incident dependence and mortality.MethodsPopulation-based cohort studies in urban sites in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, and rural and urban sites in Peru, Mexico, India and China. Sociodemographic, behaviour and lifestyle, health, healthcare utilisation and cost questionnaires, and physical assessments were administered to all participants, with ascertainment of incident dependence, and mortality, three to five years later.ResultsIn the 12 sites in eight countries, 17,031 participants were surveyed at baseline. Intrinsic capacity was least likely to be retained for locomotion (71.2%), vision (71.3%), cognition (73.5%), and mood (74.1%). Only 30% retained full capacity across all domains, varying between one quarter and two-fifths in most sites. The proportion retaining capacity fell sharply with increasing age, and declines affecting multiple domains were more common. Poverty, morbidity (particularly dementia, depression and stroke), and disability were concentrated among those with DIC, although only 10% were frail, and a further 9% had needs for care. Hypertension and lifestyle risk factors for chronic disease, healthcare utilization and costs were more evenly distributed in the general older population. 15,901 participants were included in the mortality cohort (2,602 deaths/ 53,911 person years of follow-up), and 12,965 participants in the dependence cohort (1900 incident cases/ 38,377 person-years). DIC (any decline, and number of domains affected) strongly and independently predicted incident dependence and death. Relative risks were higher for those who were frail, but were also substantially elevated for the much larger sub-groups yet to become frail. Mortality was mainly concentrated in the frail and dependent sub-groups.ConclusionsOur findings support the strategy to optimize intrinsic capacity in pursuit of healthy ageing. Most needs for care arise in those with declines in intrinsic capacity who are yet to become frail. Implementation at scale requires community-based screening and assessment, and a stepped-care approach to intervention. Community healthcare workers’ roles would need redefinition to engage, train and support them in these tasks. ICOPE could be usefully integrated into community programmes orientated to the detection and case management of chronic diseases including hypertension and diabetes.

Background With no effective treatments for cognitive decline or dementia, improving the evidence base for modifiable risk factors is a research priority. This study investigated associations between risk factors and late-life cognitive decline on a global scale, including comparisons between ethno-regional groups. Methods and findings We harmonized longitudinal data from 20 population-based cohorts from 15 countries over 5 continents, including 48,522 individuals (58.4% women) aged 54–105 (mean = 72.7) years and without dementia at baseline. Studies had 2–15 years of follow-up. The risk factors investigated were age, sex, education, alcohol consumption, anxiety, apolipoprotein E ε4 allele (APOE*4) status, atrial fibrillation, blood pressure and pulse pressure, body mass index, cardiovascular disease, depression, diabetes, self-rated health, high cholesterol, hypertension, peripheral vascular disease, physical activity, smoking, and history of stroke. Associations with risk factors were determined for a global cognitive composite outcome (memory, language, processing speed, and executive functioning tests) and Mini-Mental State Examination score. Individual participant data meta-analyses of multivariable linear mixed model results pooled across cohorts revealed that for at least 1 cognitive outcome, age (B = −0.1, SE = 0.01), APOE*4 carriage (B = −0.31, SE = 0.11), depression (B = −0.11, SE = 0.06), diabetes (B = −0.23, SE = 0.10), current smoking (B = −0.20, SE = 0.08), and history of stroke (B = −0.22, SE = 0.09) were independently associated with poorer cognitive performance (p < 0.05 for all), and higher levels of education (B = 0.12, SE = 0.02) and vigorous physical activity (B = 0.17, SE = 0.06) were associated with better performance (p < 0.01 for both). Age (B = −0.07, SE = 0.01), APOE*4 carriage (B = −0.41, SE = 0.18), and diabetes (B = −0.18, SE = 0.10) were independently associated with faster cognitive decline (p < 0.05 for all). Different effects between Asian people and white people included stronger associations for Asian people between ever smoking and poorer cognition (group by risk factor interaction: B = −0.24, SE = 0.12), and between diabetes and cognitive decline (B = −0.66, SE = 0.27; p < 0.05 for both). Limitations of our study include a loss or distortion of risk factor data with harmonization, and not investigating factors at midlife. Conclusions These results suggest that education, smoking, physical activity, diabetes, and stroke are all modifiable factors associated with cognitive decline. If these factors are determined to be causal, controlling them could minimize worldwide levels of cognitive decline. However, any global prevention strategy may need to consider ethno-regional differences., Darren Lipnicki and the Sydney COSMIC team analysed cognitive performance and risk factor data from older people from 15 countries to assess associations between risk factors and late-life cognition, Author summary Why was this study done? There is a growing global burden associated with cognitive decline and dementia. Evidence for modifiable risk factors that could be targeted to reduce this burden needs to be improved. Risk factors for cognitive decline and dementia might differ between ethno-regional groups. What did the researchers do and find? We analyzed cognitive performance and risk factor data from 48,522 older individuals, provided by 20 studies of aging representing 15 countries (Australia, Brazil, Cuba, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Spain, South Korea, The Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States). Cognitive performance was measured as Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and global cognition scores. When controlling for confounding risk factors, the apolipoprotein E ε4 allele (APOE*4), depression, diabetes, current smoking, and history of stroke were associated with poorer cognitive performance, and higher levels of education and vigorous physical activity were associated with better performance. Age, APOE*4, and diabetes were associated with faster cognitive decline. Compared to white people, Asian people showed stronger associations between having ever smoked and cognitive performance, and between diabetes and cognitive decline. What do these findings mean? Modifiable risk factors associated with cognitive decline include education, smoking, physical activity, diabetes, and stroke. If these associations are determined to be causal, interventions targeting these factors may help reduce the global burden of cognitive decline and dementia. Interventions may require tailoring to particular ethno-regional groups.

OBJECTIVES: Growing evidence shows that cardiovascular health (CVH) is associated with brain health. Little is known about this topic among older adults in Latin America, where the number of people living with dementia is rising. This study aimed to assess the longitudinal association between cardiovascular health and dementia in six Latin American countries. METHODS: We analyzed longitudinal data from the 10/66 study which included non-demented residents at baseline aged 65+ in six Latin American countries (n=6447) and were followed up for three years. An index of modifiable CVH factors (ranging from 0 to 14) was calculated. Incident dementia was modeled using competing risks regression to adjust for risk of death. RESULTS: The sample included 6.2% participants with poor (0–5), 81.0% with moderate (6–10) and 12.8% with ideal CVH (11–14). At follow-up, 9.4% had developed dementia and 13.1% had died. Compared to poor CVH, participants with moderate and ideal levels of CVH had a significantly lower risk of dementia both in the unadjusted (subhazard ratio for moderate: 0.77; ideal: 0.59) and adjusted models (moderate: 0.73; ideal: 0.66). CONCLUSION: Moderate and ideal levels of CVH in old age may protect against dementia incidence. These findings may inform health promotion efforts within dementia national plans adopted recently in some Latin American countries.

BackgroundAdult leg length is influenced by nutrition in the first few years of life. Adult head circumference is an indicator of brain growth. Cross-sectional studies indicate inverse associations with dementia risk, but there have been few prospective studies.MethodsPopulation-based cohort studies in urban sites in Cuba, Dominican Republic Puerto Rico and Venezuela, and rural and urban sites in Peru, Mexico and China. Sociodemographic and risk factor questionnaires were administered to all participants, and anthropometric measures taken, with ascertainment of incident 10/66 dementia, and mortality, three to five years later.ResultsOf the original at risk cohort of 13,587 persons aged 65 years and over, 2,443 (18.0%) were lost to follow-up; 10,540 persons with skull circumference assessments were followed up for 40,466 person years, and 10,400 with leg length assessments were followed up for 39,954 person years. There were 1,009 cases of incident dementia, and 1,605 dementia free deaths. The fixed effect pooled meta-analysed adjusted subhazard ratio (ASHR) for leg length (highest vs. lowest quarter) was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.66-0.97) and for skull circumference was 1.02 (95% CI, 0.84-1.25), with no heterogeneity of effect between sites (I2=0%). Leg length measurements tended to be shorter at follow-up, particularly for those with baseline cognitive impairment and dementia. However, leg length change was not associated with dementia incidence (ASHR, per cm 1.006, 95% CI 0.992-1.020), and the effect of leg length was little altered after adjusting for baseline frailty (ASHT 0.82, 95% CI 0.67-0.99). A priori hypotheses regarding effect modification by gender or educational level were not supported.ConclusionsConsistent findings across settings provide quite strong support for an association between adult leg length and dementia incidence in late-life. Leg length is a relatively stable marker of early life nutritional programming, which may confer brain reserve and protect against neurodegeneration in later life through mitigation of cardiometabolic risk. Further clarification of these associations could inform predictive models for future dementia incidence in the context of secular trends in adult height, and invigorate global efforts to improve childhood nutrition, growth and development.

BackgroundDiabetes prevalence is already high in middle income countries, particularly among older people. Current evidence on diabetes as a risk factor for dementia is limited to cohort studies in high income countries. Few studies carried out fasting glucose assessments to identify undiagnosed cases, and assess diabetes control. We aimed to determine the association between both diagnosed diabetes and total diabetes (including undiagnosed cases) and incident dementia, examining also the impact of glycaemic control on dementia risk.MethodsPopulation-based cohort studies of those aged 65 years and over in sites in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Peru, Venezuela, and Mexico. Diagnosed diabetes was assessed through self-reported diagnosis, and undiagnosed diabetes through fasting blood samples (glucose >= 7mmol/L). Blood pressure, smoking, underactivity and waist circumference were assessed from questionnaires and physical examination. Incident 10/66 dementia (and subtypes), and mortality, were ascertained three to five years later.Results12,297 interviews were completed at baseline, with 80-95% responding by site. The ‘at risk’ cohort comprised 10,945 dementia-free individuals, of whom 8,171 (75%) provided blood samples. Mean age varied from 72.0 to 75.1 years by site. Total diabetes prevalence was 43.5% in Puerto Rico, ranging from 11.5% to 27.0% in other sites. Most diabetes cases (50.2% to 68.4%) were not controlled (fasting glucose >7.0 mmol/L). 7,000 participants were followed up for 26,423 person-years with 659 incident dementia cases, and 905 dementia free deaths. Total diabetes was associated with incident 10/66 dementia (pooled meta-analysed adjusted sub-hazard ratio [pASHR] 1.25, 95% CI, 1.05-1.49, I2=48.6%), with a stronger association for uncontrolled (pASHR 1.47, 95% CI 1.19-1.81, I2=49.6%) than controlled cases (pASHR 1.29, 95% CI 0.95-1.74, I2=13.3%). Total diabetes was strongly associated with the incidence of vascular dementia (pASHR 2.25, 95% CI 1.24-4.08, I2=23.7%), but not Alzheimer’s Disease (pASHR 0.99, 95% CI 0.70-1.42, I2=49.0%).ConclusionsDiabetes, particularly when poorly controlled, may increase dementia risk. There is considerable scope for improved detection and control of diabetes among older people in these settings, and hence an opportunity to carry out proof of concept prevention trials. Overlapping epidemics of these age dependent disorders will challenge poorly-resourced health systems in the future.

BackgroundExposure to endogenous estrogen may protect against dementia, but evidence remains equivocal. Such effects may be assessed more precisely in settings where exogenous estrogen administration is rare. We aimed to determine whether reproductive period (menarche to menopause), and other indicators of endogenous estrogen exposure are inversely associated with dementia incidenceMethodsPopulation-based cohort studies, of women aged 65 years and over in urban sites in Cuba, Dominican Republic Puerto Rico and Venezuela, and rural and urban sites in Peru, Mexico and China. Sociodemographic and risk factor questionnaires were administered to all participants, including ages at menarche, birth of first child, and menopause, and parity, with ascertainment of incident 10/66 dementia, and mortality, three to five years later.Results9,428 women participated in the baseline phase, with response rates of 72–98% by site. The ‘at risk’ cohort comprised 8,466 dementia-free women. Mean age at baseline varied from 72.0 to 75.4 years, lower in rural than urban sites and in China than in Latin America. Mean parity was 4.1, generally higher in rural than urban sites and ranging from 2.4-7.2 by site. 6,854 women with baseline reproductive period data were followed up for 26,463 person years. There were 692 cases of incident dementia, and 895 dementia free deaths. Pooled meta-analysed fixed effects, per year, for reproductive period (Adjusted Sub-Hazard Ratio [ASHR] 1.001, 95% CI 0.988-1.015) did not support any association with dementia incidence, with no evidence also for any interaction between APOE genotype and reproductive period (ASHR 0.993, 95% CI 0.947-1.041, I2=39.3%). Similarly no association was observed between incident dementia and; ages at menarche, birth of first child, and menopause: nulliparity; or index of cumulative endogenous estrogen exposure. Greater parity was positively associated with incident dementia (ASHR 1.030, 95% CI 1.002-1.059, I2=0.0%).ConclusionsWe found no evidence to support the theory that natural variation in cumulative exposure to endogenous oestrogens across the reproductive period influences the incidence of dementia in late life.

Background: Little is known of the epidemiology of diabetes among older people in low and middle income countries. We aimed to study and compare prevalence, social patterning, correlates, detection, treatment and control of diabetes among older people in Latin America, India, China and Nigeria. Methods: Cross-sectional surveys in 13 catchment area sites in nine countries. Diagnosed diabetes was assessed in all sites through self-reported diagnosis. Undiagnosed diabetes was assessed in seven Latin American sites through fasting blood samples (glucose > = 7mmol/L). Results: Total diabetes prevalence in catchment sites in Cuba (prevalence 24.2%, SMR 116), Puerto Rico (43.4%, 197), and urban (27.0%, 125), and rural Mexico (23.7%, 111) already exceeds that in the USA, while that in Venezuela (20.9%, 100) is similar. Diagnosed diabetes prevalence varied very widely, between low prevalences in sites in rural China (0.9%), rural India (6.6%) and Nigeria (6.0%). and 32.1% in Puerto Rico, explained mainly by access to health services. Treatment coverage varied substantially between sites. Diabetes control (40 to 61% of those diagnosed) was modest in the Latin American sites where this was studied. Diabetes was independently associated with less education, but more assets. Hypertension, central obesity and hypertriglyceridaemia, but not hypercholesterolaemia were consistently associated with total diabetes. Conclusions: Diabetes prevalence is already high in most sites. Identifying undiagnosed cases is essential to quantify population burden, particularly in least developed settings where diagnosis is uncommon. Metabolic risk factors and associated lifestyles may play an important part in aetiology, but this requires confirmation with longitudinal data. Given the high prevalence among older people, more population research is indicated to quantify the impact of diabetes, and to monitor the effect of prevention and health system strengthening on prevalence, treatment and control.

BACKGROUND: In countries with high incomes, frailty indicators predict adverse outcomes in older people, despite a lack of consensus on definition or measurement. We tested the predictive validity of physical and multidimensional frailty phenotypes in settings in Latin America, India, and China.METHODS: Population-based cohort studies were conducted in catchment area sites in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico, Peru, India, and China. Seven frailty indicators, namely gait speed, self-reported exhaustion, weight loss, low energy expenditure, undernutrition, cognitive, and sensory impairment were assessed to estimate frailty phenotypes. Mortality and onset of dependence were ascertained after a median of 3.9 years.RESULTS: Overall, 13,924 older people were assessed at baseline, with 47,438 person-years follow-up for mortality and 30,689 for dependence. Both frailty phenotypes predicted the onset of dependence and mortality, even adjusting for chronic diseases and disability, with little heterogeneity of effect among sites. However, population attributable fractions (PAF) summarising etiologic force were highest for the aggregate effect of the individual indicators, as opposed to either the number of indicators or the dichotomised frailty phenotypes. The aggregate of all seven indicators provided the best overall prediction (weighted mean PAF 41.8 % for dependence and 38.3 % for mortality). While weight loss, underactivity, slow walking speed, and cognitive impairment predicted both outcomes, whereas undernutrition predicted only mortality and sensory impairment only dependence. Exhaustion predicted neither outcome.CONCLUSIONS: Simply assessed frailty indicators identify older people at risk of dependence and mortality, beyond information provided by chronic disease diagnoses and disability. Frailty is likely to be multidimensional. A better understanding of the construct and pathways to adverse outcomes could inform multidimensional assessment and intervention to prevent or manage dependence in frail older people, with potential to add life to years, and years to life.

Evidence on the association between fish consumption and depression is inconsistent and virtually non-existent from low- and middle-income countries. Using a standard protocol, we aim to assess the association of fish consumption and late-life depression in seven low- and middle-income countries., info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Background: Adult leg length is influenced by nutrition in the first few years of life. Adult head circumference is an indicator of brain growth. There is a limited literature linking short legs and small skulls to an increased risk for cognitive impairment and dementia in late life.Methods: One phase cross-sectional surveys were carried out of all residents aged over 65 years in 11 catchment areas in China, India, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico and Peru (n = 14,960). The cross-culturally validated 10/66 dementia diagnosis, and a sociodemographic and risk factor questionnaire were administered to all participants, and anthropometric measures taken. Poisson regression was used to calculate prevalence ratios for the effect of leg length and skull circumference upon 10/66 dementia, controlling for age, gender, education and family history of dementia.Results: The pooled meta-analyzed fixed effect for leg length (highest vs. lowest quarter) was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.68–0.98) and for skull circumference 0.75 (95% CI, 0.63–0.89). While point estimates varied between sites, the proportion of the variability attributable to heterogeneity between studies as opposed to sampling error (I2) was 0% for leg length and 22% for skull circumference. The effects were independent and not mediated by family history of dementia. The effect of skull circumference was not modified by educational level or gender, and the effect of leg length was not modified by gender.Conclusions: Since leg length and skull circumference are said to remain stable throughout adulthood into old age, reverse causality is an unlikely explanation for the findings. Early life nutritional programming, as well as neurodevelopment may protect against neurodegeneration.

Background The number of older people is set to increase dramatically worldwide. Demographic changes are likely to result in the rise of age-related chronic diseases which largely contribute to years lived with a disability and future dependence. However dependence is much less studied although intrinsically linked to disability. We investigated the prevalence and correlates of dependence among older people from middle income countries. Methods A one-phase cross-sectional survey was carried out at 11 sites in seven countries (urban sites in Cuba, Venezuela, and Dominican Republic, urban and rural sites in Peru, Mexico, China and India). All those aged 65 years and over living in geographically defined catchment areas were eligible. In all, 15,022 interviews were completed with an informant interview for each participant. The full 10/66 Dementia Research Group survey protocol was applied, including ascertainment of depression, dementia, physical impairments and self-reported diagnoses. Dependence was interviewer-rated based on a key informant's responses to a set of open-ended questions on the participant's needs for care. We estimated the prevalence of dependence and the independent contribution of underlying health conditions. Site-specific prevalence ratios were meta-analysed, and population attributable prevalence fractions (PAPF) calculated. Results The prevalence of dependence increased with age at all sites, with a tendency for the prevalence to be lower in men than in women. Age-standardised prevalence was lower in all sites than in the USA. Other than in rural China, dementia made the largest independent contribution to dependence, with a median PAPF of 34% (range 23%-59%). Other substantial contributors were limb impairment (9%, 1%-46%), stroke (8%, 2%-17%), and depression (8%, 1%-27%). Conclusion The demographic and health transitions will lead to large and rapid increases in the numbers of dependent older people particularly in middle income countries (MIC). The prevention and control of chronic neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases and the development of long-term care policies and plans should be urgent priorities.

Summary Background Disability in elderly people in countries with low and middle incomes is little studied; according to Global Burden of Disease estimates, visual impairment is the leading contributor to years lived with disability in this population. We aimed to assess the contribution of physical, mental, and cognitive chronic diseases to disability, and the extent to which sociodemographic and health characteristics account for geographical variation in disability. Methods We undertook cross-sectional surveys of residents aged older than 65 years (n=15 022) in 11 sites in seven countries with low and middle incomes (China, India, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico, and Peru). Disability was assessed with the 12-item WHO disability assessment schedule 2.0. Dementia, depression, hypertension, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were ascertained by clinical assessment; diabetes, stroke, and heart disease by self-reported diagnosis; and sensory, gastrointestinal, skin, limb, and arthritic disorders by self-reported impairment. Independent contributions to disability scores were assessed by zero-inflated negative binomial regression and Poisson regression to generate population-attributable prevalence fractions (PAPF). Findings In regions other than rural India and Venezuela, dementia made the largest contribution to disability (median PAPF 25·1% [IQR 19·2–43·6]). Other substantial contributors were stroke (11·4% [1·8–21·4]), limb impairment (10·5% [5·7–33·8]), arthritis (9·9% [3·2–34·8]), depression (8·3% [0·5–23·0]), eyesight problems (6·8% [1·7–17·6]), and gastrointestinal impairments (6·5% [0·3–23·1]). Associations with chronic diseases accounted for around two-thirds of prevalent disability. When zero inflation was taken into account, between-site differences in disability scores were largely attributable to compositional differences in health and sociodemographic characteristics. Interpretation On the basis of empirical research, dementia, not blindness, is overwhelmingly the most important independent contributor to disability for elderly people in countries with low and middle incomes. Chronic diseases of the brain and mind deserve increased prioritisation. Besides disability, they lead to dependency and present stressful, complex, long-term challenges to carers. Societal costs are enormous. Funding Wellcome Trust; WHO; US Alzheimer's Association; Fondo Nacional de Ciencia Y Tecnologia, Consejo de Desarrollo Cientifico Y Humanistico, Universidad Central de Venezuela.

Summary Background Results of the few cohort studies from countries with low incomes or middle incomes suggest a lower incidence of dementia than in high-income countries. We assessed incidence of dementia according to criteria from the 10/66 Dementia Research Group and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) IV, the effect of dementia at baseline on mortality, and the independent effects of age, sex, socioeconomic position, and indicators of cognitive reserve. Methods We did a population-based cohort study of all people aged 65 years and older living in urban sites in Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela, and rural and urban sites in Peru, Mexico, and China, with ascertainment of incident 10/66 and DSM-IV dementia 3–5 years after cohort inception. We used questionnaires to obtain information about age in years, sex, educational level, literacy, occupational attainment, and number of household assets. We obtained information about mortality from all sites. For participants who had died, we interviewed a friend or relative to ascertain the likelihood that they had dementia before death. Findings 12 887 participants were interviewed at baseline. 11 718 were free of dementia, of whom 8137 (69%) were reinterviewed, contributing 34 718 person-years of follow-up. Incidence for 10/66 dementia varied between 18·2 and 30·4 per 1000 person-years, and were 1·4–2·7 times higher than were those for DSM-IV dementia (9·9–15·7 per 1000 person-years). Mortality hazards were 1·56–5·69 times higher in individuals with dementia at baseline than in those who were dementia-free. Informant reports suggested a high incidence of dementia before death; overall incidence might be 4–19% higher if these data were included. 10/66 dementia incidence was independently associated with increased age (HR 1·67; 95% CI 1·56–1·79), female sex (0·72; 0·61–0·84), and low education (0·89; 0·81–0·97), but not with occupational attainment (1·04; 0·95–1·13). Interpretation Our results provide supportive evidence for the cognitive reserve hypothesis, showing that in middle-income countries as in high-income countries, education, literacy, verbal fluency, and motor sequencing confer substantial protection against the onset of dementia. Funding Wellcome Trust Health Consequences of Population Change Programme, WHO, US Alzheimer's Association, FONACIT/ CDCH/ UCV