276 results on '"Jungclaus, Johann"'
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2. Mechanisms of projected sea-level trends and variability in the Southeast Asia region based on MPI-ESM-ER
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Jin, Yi, Köhl, Armin, Jungclaus, Johann, and Stammer, Detlef
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- 2024
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3. Thermohaline patterns of intrinsic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in MPI-ESM-LR
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Zanchettin, Davide, Fang, Shih-Wei, Khodri, Myriam, Omrani, Nour-Eddine, Rubinetti, Sara, Rubino, Angelo, Timmreck, Claudia, and Jungclaus, Johann H.
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- 2023
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4. Impact of ocean data assimilation on climate predictions with ICON-ESM
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Pohlmann, Holger, Brune, Sebastian, Fröhlich, Kristina, Jungclaus, Johann H., Sgoff, Christine, and Baehr, Johanna
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- 2023
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5. Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change
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Couldrey, Matthew P., Gregory, Jonathan M., Dong, Xiao, Garuba, Oluwayemi, Haak, Helmuth, Hu, Aixue, Hurlin, William J., Jin, Jiangbo, Jungclaus, Johann, Köhl, Armin, Liu, Hailong, Ojha, Sayantani, Saenko, Oleg A., Savita, Abhishek, Suzuki, Tatsuo, Yu, Zipeng, and Zanna, Laure
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- 2023
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6. Sea level changes mechanisms in the MPI-ESM under FAFMIP forcing conditions
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Zhang, Xiaolin, Ojha, Sayantani, Köhl, Armin, Haak, Helmuth, Jungclaus, Johann H., and Stammer, Detlef
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- 2022
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7. High-frequency climate forcing causes prolonged cold periods in the Holocene
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van Dijk, Evelien J. C., Jungclaus, Johann, Sigl, Michael, Timmreck, Claudia, and Krüger, Kirstin
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- 2024
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8. Multi-centennial Holocene climate variability in proxy records and transient model simulations
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Askjær, Thomas Gravgaard, Zhang, Qiong, Schenk, Frederik, Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier, Lu, Zhengyao, Brierley, Chris M., Hopcroft, Peter O., Jungclaus, Johann, Shi, Xiaoxu, Lohmann, Gerrit, Sun, Weiyi, Liu, Jian, Braconnot, Pascale, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L., Wu, Zhipeng, Yin, Qiuzhen, Kang, Yibo, and Yang, Haijun
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- 2022
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9. Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection
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Omrani, Nour-Eddine, Keenlyside, Noel, Matthes, Katja, Boljka, Lina, Zanchettin, Davide, Jungclaus, Johann H., and Lubis, Sandro W.
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- 2022
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10. Land–Atmosphere Coupling Sensitivity to GCMs Resolution : A Multimodel Assessment of Local and Remote Processes in the Sahel Hot Spot
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Müller, Omar V., Vidale, Pier Luigi, Vannière, Benoît, Schiemann, Reinhard, Senan, Retish, Haarsma, Reindert J., and Jungclaus, Johann H.
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- 2021
11. Contrasting Southern Hemisphere Monsoon Response : MidHolocene Orbital Forcing versus Future Greenhouse Gas–Induced Global Warming
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D’Agostino, Roberta, Brown, Josephine R., Moise, Aurel, Nguyen, Hanh, Dias, Pedro L. Silva, and Jungclaus, Johann
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- 2020
12. Parameterized Internal Wave Mixing in Three Ocean General Circulation Models.
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Brüggemann, Nils, Losch, Martin, Scholz, Patrick, Pollmann, Friederike, Danilov, Sergey, Gutjahr, Oliver, Jungclaus, Johann, Koldunov, Nikolay, Korn, Peter, Olbers, Dirk, and Eden, Carsten
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INTERNAL waves ,GENERAL circulation model ,OCEAN circulation ,OCEANIC mixing ,ATLANTIC meridional overturning circulation ,OCEAN ,TIDAL power ,ROGUE waves - Abstract
The non‐local model of mixing based on internal wave breaking, IDEMIX, is implemented as an enhancement of a turbulent kinetic energy closure model in three non‐eddy resolving general circulation ocean models that differ in the discretization and choice of computational grids. In IDEMIX internal wave energy is generated by an energy flux resulting from near‐inertial waves induced by wind forcing at the surface, and at the bottom, by an energy flux that parameterizes the transfer of energy between baroclinic and barotropic tides. In all model simulations with IDEMIX, the mixing work is increased compared to the reference solutions without IDEMIX, reaching values in better agreement with finestructure observations. Furthermore, the horizontal structure of the mixing work is more realistic as a consequence of the heterogeneous forcing functions. All models with IDEMIX simulate deeper thermocline depths related to stronger shallow overturning cells in the Indo‐Pacific. In the North Atlantic, deeper mixed layers in simulations with IDEMIX are associated with an increased Atlantic overturning circulation and an increase of northward heat transports toward more realistic values. The response of the deep Indo‐Pacific overturning circulation and the weak bottom cell of the Atlantic to the inclusion of IDEMIX is incoherent between the models, suggesting that additional unidentified processes and numerical mixing may confound the analysis. Applying different tidal forcing functions leads to simulation differences that are small compared to differences between the different models or between simulations with IDEMIX and without IDEMIX. Plain Language Summary: Waves in the ocean interior play a fundamental role for ocean dynamics since they can carry energy over long distances and, once they break, lead to turbulent mixing. This turbulent mixing can cause dense water masses to rise from the deep ocean with a direct impact on large‐scale currents. The wave dynamics occur on spatial scales that cannot be resolved in global ocean or climate models. To account for these processes, we apply the new parameterization IDEMIX that describes internal wave generation, propagation, and mixing. Using three different ocean models with and without IDEMIX ensures that we can identify model‐specific effects of the parameterization and discriminate them from those independent of the model. We find that the simulated mixing patterns agree better with observations once IDEMIX is applied. Large‐scale currents and the vertical temperature distribution are substantially affected by the internal wave parameterization. Whether this leads to an improved agreement with observed currents and water mass properties depends on the specific model and on numerical effects. In most cases, simulations with IDEMIX are not very sensitive to details of how the internal wave model is driven by tidal energy input. Key Points: the IDEMIX closure for a consistent representation of internal wave‐induced mixing is evaluated in three state‐of‐the‐art ocean modelsonly in simulations with IDEMIX can the models reproduce the magnitude and spatial variability of the observed mixing workmost changes with IDEMIX can be attributed to stronger mixing, but some effects are confounded by other processes and numerical mixing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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13. Underestimated Land Heat Uptake Alters the Global Energy Distribution in CMIP6 Climate Models.
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Steinert, Norman Julius, Cuesta‐Valero, Francisco José, García‐Pereira, Félix, de Vrese, Philipp, Melo Aguilar, Camilo Andrés, García‐Bustamante, Elena, Jungclaus, Johann, and González‐Rouco, Jesús Fidel
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ATMOSPHERIC models ,HEAT storage ,HEAT sinks ,GREENHOUSE effect ,GLOBAL warming - Abstract
Current global warming results in an uptake of heat by the Earth system, which is distributed among the different components of the climate system. However, current‐generation climate models deliver heat inventory and partitioning estimates of Earth system components that differ from recent observations. Here we investigate the global heat distribution under warming by using fully‐coupled CMIP6 Earth system model experiments, including a version of the MPI‐ESM with a deep land model component, accommodating the required space for more realistic terrestrial heat storage. The results show that sufficiently deep land models exert increased subsurface land heat uptake, leading to a heat uptake partitioning among the Earth system components that is closer to observational estimates. The results are relevant for the understanding of Earth's heat partitioning and highlight the importance of the land heat sink in the Earth heat inventory. Plain Language Summary: Global warming is associated with heat accumulation in the Earth system due to the intensification of the greenhouse effect. The available heat is distributed unevenly throughout the climate subsystems: the ocean, land, atmosphere, and cryosphere. Overall, the current generation of climate models captures this partitioning well but, on average, shows an overestimation of the ocean heat uptake and an underestimation of the land heat uptake. Previous studies have shown that the lack of heat input into the land comes from structural limitations in the land model components used. In this study, we account for these shortcomings, which greatly improve the land heat uptake in simulations of future climate scenarios. We find that, as a result, the fraction of simulated heat taken up by the ocean is reduced. This leads to a heat distribution among the climate subsystems that is closer to observational estimates. Our results highlight that land heat uptake is relevant for the Earth system heat distribution and that future research should consider modeling approaches including a more realistic land heat sink. Key Points: Considering a sufficient land depth in current‐generation Earth system models facilitates realistic land heat uptake estimates under warmingIncreased land heat uptake leads to an adjusted global heat distribution and a reduced overestimation of simulated ocean heat uptakeThe land heat sink is relevant for the projection of the global energy inventory and its partitioning under global warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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14. High-resolution marine data and transient simulations support orbital forcing of ENSO amplitude since the mid-Holocene
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Carré, Matthieu, Braconnot, Pascale, Elliot, Mary, d’Agostino, Roberta, Schurer, Andrew, Shi, Xiaoxu, Marti, Olivier, Lohmann, Gerrit, Jungclaus, Johann, Cheddadi, Rachid, Abdelkader di Carlo, Isma, Cardich, Jorge, Ochoa, Diana, Salas Gismondi, Rodolfo, Pérez, Alexander, Romero, Pedro E., Turcq, Bruno, Corrège, Thierry, and Harrison, Sandy P.
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- 2021
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15. Changes of Decadal SST Variations in the Subpolar North Atlantic under Strong CO₂ Forcing as an Indicator for the Ocean Circulation’s Contribution to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
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Hand, Ralf, Bader, Jürgen, Matei, Daniela, Ghosh, Rohit, and Jungclaus, Johann H.
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- 2020
16. What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?
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Couldrey, Matthew P., Gregory, Jonathan M., Boeira Dias, Fabio, Dobrohotoff, Peter, Domingues, Catia M., Garuba, Oluwayemi, Griffies, Stephen M., Haak, Helmuth, Hu, Aixue, Ishii, Masayoshi, Jungclaus, Johann, Köhl, Armin, Marsland, Simon J., Ojha, Sayantani, Saenko, Oleg A., Savita, Abhishek, Shao, Andrew, Stammer, Detlef, Suzuki, Tatsuo, Todd, Alexander, and Zanna, Laure
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- 2021
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17. Multiple drivers of the North Atlantic warming hole
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Keil, Paul, Mauritsen, Thorsten, Jungclaus, Johann, Hedemann, Christopher, Olonscheck, Dirk, and Ghosh, Rohit
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- 2020
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18. First comprehensive assessment of industrial era land heat uptake from multiple sources.
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García-Pereira, Félix, González-Rouco, Jesús Fidel, Melo-Aguilar, Camilo, Steinert, Norman Julius, García-Bustamante, Elena, de Vrese, Philip, Jungclaus, Johann, Lorenz, Stephan, Hagemann, Stefan, Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José, García-García, Almudena, and Beltrami, Hugo
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SURFACE temperature ,GREENHOUSE effect ,ATMOSPHERIC models ,MODELS & modelmaking - Abstract
The anthropogenically-intensified greenhouse effect has caused a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere during the industrial period. This, in turn, has led to an energy surplus in various components of the Earth system, with the ocean storing the largest part. The land contribution ranks second with the latest observational estimates based on borehole temperature profiles, which quantify the terrestrial energy surplus to be 6 % in the last five decades, whereas studies based on state-of-the-art climate models scale it down to 2 %. This underestimation stems from land surface models (LSMs) having a too shallow subsurface, which severely constrains the land heat uptake simulated by Earth System Models (ESMs). A forced simulation of the last 2000 years with the Max Planck Institute ESM (MPI-ESM) using a deep LSM captures 4 times more heat than the standard shallow MPI-ESM simulations in the historical period, well above the estimates provided by other ESMs. However, deepening the LSM does not remarkably affect the simulated surface temperature. It is shown that the heat stored during the historical period by an ESM using a deep LSM component can be accurately estimated by considering the surface temperatures simulated by the ESM using a shallow LSM and propagating them with a standalone forward model. This result is used to derive estimates of land heat uptake using all available observational datasets, reanalysis products, and state-of-the-art ESM experiments. This approach yields values of 10.5-16.0 ZJ for 1971-2018, slightly smaller than the latest borehole-based estimates (18.2 ZJ). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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19. The Role of Small to Moderate Volcanic Eruptions in the Early 19th Century Climate.
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Fang, Shih‐Wei, Sigl, Michael, Toohey, Matthew, Jungclaus, Johann, Zanchettin, Davide, and Timmreck, Claudia
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VOLCANIC eruptions ,NINETEENTH century ,GLOBAL cooling ,SOLAR radiation ,ATMOSPHERIC models ,SIGNAL-to-noise ratio - Abstract
Small‐to‐moderate volcanic eruptions can lead to significant surface cooling when they occur clustered, as observed in recent decades. In this study, based on new high‐resolution ice‐core data from Greenland, we produce a new volcanic forcing data set that includes several small‐to‐moderate eruptions not included in prior reconstructions and investigate their climate impacts of the early 19th century through ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. We find that clustered small‐to‐moderate eruptions produce significant additional global surface cooling (∼0.07 K) during the period 1812–1820, superposing with the cooling by large eruptions in 1809 (unidentified location) and 1815 (Tambora). This additional cooling helps explain the reconstructed long‐lasting cooling after the large eruptions, but simulated regional impacts cannot be confirmed with reconstructions due to a low signal‐to‐noise ratio. This study highlights the importance of small‐to‐moderate eruptions for climate simulations as their impacts can be comparable with that of solar irradiance changes. Plain Language Summary: Volcanic eruptions can influence global climate through the emission of sulfuric acids shielding Earth from incoming solar radiation. Previous volcanic reconstructions based on ice‐cores from the polar regions, however, only considered very strong volcanic eruptions. In this study, based on new ice‐core measurements from Greenland, we reconstruct for the first time volcanic sulfur emissions from small to medium‐sized eruptions and investigate their impact on climate in the early 19th century through experiments with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM1.2‐LR). We find that clustering of small to medium‐sized eruptions can cause significant global surface cooling (∼0.07 K), which during the 1812–1820 period amplified the cooling caused by the two known large eruptions of the period (1809 unidentified and 1815 Tambora). This additional surface cooling from small eruptions helps explain the long‐lasting cooling after the two strong eruptions generally found in the reconstruction, but the simulated regional impacts cannot be fully confirmed with reconstructions that are too noisy. This study highlights the importance of including small‐to‐moderate eruptions for climate model simulations as their impacts are comparable with that of solar irradiance forcing. Key Points: A new ice‐core based reconstruction of volcanic sulfate in the atmosphere (1733–1895) includes small‐to‐moderate eruptionsSmall‐to‐moderate eruptions can induce significant surface cooling and help explain the long‐lasting cooling in the early 19th centuryRegional cooling from small‐to‐moderate eruptions may be influenced by the circulation changes from the 1815 Tambora for over 10 years [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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20. Skillful prediction of the 2015 summer 'cold blob' in the subpolar North Atlantic with the MPI-ESM1.2 'eddy-resolving' climate prediction system
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Lohmann, Katja, Gutjahr, Oliver, Jungclaus, Johann, and Matei, Daniela
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The subpolar North Atlantic is a hotspot with respect to predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) and upper-ocean heat content, as well as one of the regions worldwide, where initialisation with an observation-based state can further improve this predictability. In contrast to longer-term SST variability, high-frequency, impact-relevant extreme events are still challenging to predict by state-of-art decadal prediction systems.One such eventin the eastern subpolar North Atlantic is the record-cold anomaly in summer 2015, often referred to as "Cold Blob". We analyse ensemble prediction experiments with the MPI-ESM1.2 "eddy-resolving" climate prediction system initialized in November 2013 and 2014 to demonstrate that individual ensemble members can reforecast strength and extent of the 2015 summer record "Cold Blob". About half of the members initialized in November 2014 and one third of the members initialized in November 2013 reforecast cold SST conditions in the entire eastern subpolar North Atlantic, with maximum anomalies reaching a similar magnitude as in observations. With respect to upper-ocean heat content, we expect an even higher skill. As in the real world, strong surface heat loss in the (two) winter preceding winters plays a key role in maintainig and deepening the subpolar cold anomaly in most ensemble members reforecasting the "Cold Blob". In some ensemble members, oceanic drivers such as heat transport divergence seem to be important in shaping subpolar SST anomalies. Individual ensemble members reforecasting the "Cold Blob" also reforecast the associated European summer heat wave., The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)
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- 2023
21. Global temperature modes shed light on the Holocene temperature conundrum
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Bader, Jürgen, Jungclaus, Johann, Krivova, Natalie, Lorenz, Stephan, Maycock, Amanda, Raddatz, Thomas, Schmidt, Hauke, Toohey, Matthew, Wu, Chi-Ju, and Claussen, Martin
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- 2020
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22. External forcing increases the occurrence of internally generated extreme events of North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic pattern
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Liu, Quan, Jungclaus, Johann, Matei, Daniela, and Bader, Juergen
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External forcing is emerging as a factor influencing the internal variabilities of the climate system.However, the external forcing’s influence on the internal variabilities of the large-scale atmospheric circulation modes such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) pattern, has never been identified with a large ensemble model.The study analyzes the extreme events of NAO and EA using geopotential height data of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE)with 100 ensemble members. The internal variability is quantified as the deviation from the ensemble mean.The extreme NAO and EA are defined as those years where the indexes are above (positive extremes) or below (negative extremes) 2 standard deviations. The influence of global warming on the internal variability is checked with a 1pcCO2 experiment, where the CO2 concentration is increased by 1% every year.The results show increased occurrence of extreme events, especially negative extremes, for both NAO and EA during wintertime, in a warmer climate. While NAO extremes increase consistently across the whole troposphere, EA extremes increase more at higher altitudes (500hpa-200hpa) than at lower altitudes. The warming effect of positive extreme NAO over northern Eurasia gets weaker, while the cooling effect of negative extreme NAO over northern Eurasia gets stronger. The effects of both, positive and negative extremes of EA, extend eastward till Eastern Asia. This studyimplies that care should be taken when attributing the increased frequency of extreme weather events solely to global warming or internal variabilities of NAO and EA. , The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)
- Published
- 2023
23. POLAR LOWER-LATITUDE LINKAGES AND THEIR ROLE IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE PREDICTION
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Jung, Thomas, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Goessling, Helge, Guemas, Virginie, Bitz, Cecilia, Buontempo, Carlo, Caballero, Rodrigo, Jakobson, Erko, Jungclaus, Johann, Karcher, Michael, Koenigk, Torben, Matei, Daniela, Overland, James, Spengler, Thomas, and Yang, Shuting
- Published
- 2015
24. No Consistent Simulated Trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the Past 6,000 Years.
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Jiang, Zhiyi, Brierley, Chris M., Bader, Jürgen, Braconnot, Pascale, Erb, Michael, Hopcroft, Peter O., Jiang, Dabang, Jungclaus, Johann, Khon, Vyacheslav, Lohmann, Gerrit, Marti, Olivier, Osman, Matthew B., Otto‐Bliesner, Bette, Schneider, Birgit, Shi, Xiaoxu, Thornalley, David J. R., Tian, Zhiping, and Zhang, Qiong
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ATLANTIC meridional overturning circulation ,CLIMATE change models ,GENERAL circulation model ,OCEAN circulation ,CLIMATE change ,ATMOSPHERIC models - Abstract
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key feature of the North Atlantic with global ocean impacts. The AMOC's response to past changes in forcings during the Holocene provides important context for the coming centuries. Here, we investigate AMOC trends using an emerging set of transient simulations using multiple global climate models for the past 6,000 years. Although some models show changes, no consistent trend in overall AMOC strength during the mid‐to‐late Holocene emerges from the ensemble. We interpret this result to suggest no overall change in AMOC, which fits with our assessment of available proxy reconstructions. The decadal variability of the AMOC does not change in ensemble during the mid‐ and late‐Holocene. There are interesting AMOC changes seen in the early Holocene, but their nature depends a lot on which inputs are used to drive the experiment. Plain Language Summary: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a deep ocean circulation system that is both important for climate and vulnerable to climate changes. Here we use a set of multiple climate models to look at how the AMOC responded to changes in climate drivers over the past few thousand years. The changes are only small in all of the models, and do not agree in their direction. The AMOC naturally varies on decadal timescales, but we do not see any strong trends in its variability either. We consider these simulations to indicate that the overall AMOC has not changed over the past 6,000 years, which fits with recent data reconstructions. Key Points: A multi‐model ensemble of Holocene transient simulations by general circulation models has been assembledAlthough some models show changes, no consistent trend in overall Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength during the mid‐to‐late Holocene emerges from the ensembleWe interpret this result to suggest no overall change in AMOC, which fits with our assessment of available proxy reconstructions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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25. Controlling high-latitude Southern Ocean convection in climate models
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Stössel, Achim, Notz, Dirk, Haumann, F. Alexander, Haak, Helmuth, Jungclaus, Johann, and Mikolajewicz, Uwe
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- 2015
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26. Effects of Large Volcanic Eruptions on Global Summer Climate and East Asian Monsoon Changes during the Last Millennium : Analysis of MPI-ESM Simulations
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Man, Wenmin, Zhou, Tianjun, and Jungclaus, Johann H.
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- 2014
27. Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project.
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Jackson, Laura C., Alastrué de Asenjo, Eduardo, Bellomo, Katinka, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Haak, Helmuth, Hu, Aixue, Jungclaus, Johann, Lee, Warren, Meccia, Virna L., Saenko, Oleg, Shao, Andrew, and Swingedouw, Didier
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CLIMATE change models ,ATLANTIC meridional overturning circulation ,ATMOSPHERIC models - Abstract
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important part of our climate system. The AMOC is predicted to weaken under climate change; however, theories suggest that it may have a tipping point beyond which recovery is difficult, hence showing quasi-irreversibility (hysteresis). Although hysteresis has been seen in simple models, it has been difficult to demonstrate in comprehensive global climate models. Here, we outline a set of experiments designed to explore AMOC hysteresis and sensitivity to additional freshwater input as part of the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project (NAHosMIP). These experiments include adding additional freshwater (hosing) for a fixed length of time to examine the rate and mechanisms of AMOC weakening and whether the AMOC subsequently recovers once hosing stops. Initial results are shown from eight climate models participating in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The AMOC weakens in all models as a result of the freshening, but once the freshening ceases, the AMOC recovers in half of the models, and in the other half it stays in a weakened state. The difference in model behaviour cannot be explained by the ocean model resolution or type nor by details of subgrid-scale parameterisations. Likewise, it cannot be explained by previously proposed properties of the mean climate state such as the strength of the salinity advection feedback. Instead, the AMOC recovery is determined by the climate state reached when hosing stops, with those experiments where the AMOC is weakest not experiencing a recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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28. Sensitivity of MPI-ESM Sea Level Projections to Its Ocean Spatial Resolution.
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Wickramage, Chathurika, Köhl, Armin, Jungclaus, Johann, and Stammer, Detlef
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The dependence of future regional sea level changes on ocean model resolution is investigated based on Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) simulations with varying spatial resolution, ranging from low resolution (LR), high resolution (HR), to eddy-rich (ER) resolution. Each run was driven by the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 (fossil-fueled development) forcing. For each run the dynamic sea level (DSL) changes are evaluated by comparing the time mean of the SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario for the years 2080–99 to the time mean of the historical simulation for the years 1995–2014. Respective results indicate that each run reproduces previously identified large-scale DSL change patterns. However, substantial sensitivity of the projected DSL changes can be found on a regional to local scale with respect to model resolution. In comparison to models with parameterized eddies (HR and LR), enhanced sea level changes are found in the North Atlantic subtropical region, the Kuroshio region, and the Arctic Ocean in the model version capturing mesoscale processes (ER). Smaller yet still significant sea level changes can be found in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic subpolar region. These sea level changes are associated with changes in the regional circulation. Our study suggests that low-resolution sea level projections should be interpreted with care in regions where major differences are revealed here, particularly in eddy active regions such as the Kuroshio, Antarctic Circumpolar Current, Gulf Stream, and East Australian Current. Significance Statement: Sea level change is expected to be more realistic when mesoscale processes are explicitly resolved in climate models. However, century-long simulations with eddy-resolving models are computationally expensive. Therefore, current sea level projections are based on climate models in which ocean eddies are parameterized. The representation of sea level by these models considerably differs from actual observations, particularly in the eddy-rich regions such as the Southern Ocean and the western boundary currents, implying erroneous ocean circulation that affects the sea level projections. Taking this into account, we review the sea level change pattern in a climate model with featuring an eddy-rich ocean model and compare the results to state-of-the-art coarser-resolution versions of the same model. We found substantial DSL differences in the global ocean between the different resolutions. Relatively small-scale ocean eddies can hence have profound large-scale effects on the projected sea level which may affect our understanding of future sea level change as well as the planning of future investments to adapt to climate change around the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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29. Two Distinct Phases of North Atlantic Eastern Subpolar Gyre and Warming Hole Evolution under Global Warming.
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Ghosh, Rohit, Putrasahan, Dian, Manzini, Elisa, Lohmann, Katja, Keil, Paul, Hand, Ralf, Bader, Jürgen, Matei, Daniela, and Jungclaus, Johann H.
- Abstract
The North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) plays a crucial role in determining the regional ocean surface temperature (SST), which has profound implications on the surrounding continental and coastal climate. Here, we analyze the Max Planck Institute-Grand Ensemble global warming experiments and show that the SPG can evolve in two distinct phases under continuous global warming. In the first phase, as the global mean surface temperature approaches 2-K warming, the eastern SPG intensifies in combination with a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), accompanied by a cooling of subpolar North Atlantic SST, known as the warming hole. The associated oceanic fingerprint matches with the observations over the last 15 years, where an intensification and cooling of the eastern SPG is related to salinity reduction at the eastern side of the SPG. However, for further warming beyond 2 K, in spite of a continuous decline in the AMOC, a northward shift of the mean zonal wind extends the subtropical gyre northward with an associated disruption of the eastern SPG intensification, resulting in the cessation of the warming hole. Therefore, a shift from the initially dominating oceanic drivers to the atmospheric driver results into a two-phase evolution of the North Atlantic Ocean SPG circulation and the associated SST under continuous global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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30. Climatic and societal impacts in Scandinavia following the 536 and 540 CE volcanic double event.
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van Dijk, Evelien, Mørkestøl Gundersen, Ingar, de Bode, Anna, Høeg, Helge, Loftsgarden, Kjetil, Iversen, Frode, Timmreck, Claudia, Jungclaus, Johann, and Krüger, Kirstin
- Subjects
ATMOSPHERIC circulation ,GROWING season ,VOLCANIC eruptions ,SOCIAL impact ,BOGS ,POLLEN - Abstract
In the Northern Hemisphere, the mid-6th century was one of the coldest periods of the last 2000 years, which was initiated by volcanic eruptions in 536 and 540 CE. Here, we study the effect of this volcanic double event on the climate and society in Scandinavia with a special focus on southern Norway. Using an ensemble of Max Planck Institute Earth system model transient simulations for 521–680 CE, temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation patterns are analyzed. The simulated cooling magnitude is used as input for a growing degree day (GDD) model setup for three different study areas in southern Norway, representative of typical meteorological and landscape conditions. Pollen from bogs inside these study areas are analyzed at high resolution (1–3 cm sample intervals) to give insights into the validity of the GDD model setup with regard to the volcanic climate impact on the regional scale and to link the different data sets with the archeological records. We find that after the 536 and 540 CE double event, a maximum surface air cooling of up to 3.5 ∘ C during the mean growing season is simulated regionally for southern Norway. With a scenario cooling of 3 ∘ C, the GDD model indicates crop failures were likely in our northernmost and western study areas, while crops were more likely to mature in the southeastern study area. These results are in agreement with the pollen records from the respective areas. Archeological excavations show, however, a more complex pattern for the three areas with abandonment of farms and severe social impacts but also a continuation of occupation or a mix of those. Finally, we discuss the likely climatic and societal impacts of the 536 and 540 CE volcanic double event by synthesizing the new and available data sets for the whole Scandinavia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
31. The PMIP4 Contribution to CMIP6 - Part 1: Overview and Over-Arching Analysis Plan
- Author
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Kageyama, Masa, Braconnot, Pascale, Harrison, Sandy P, Haywood, Alan M, Jungclaus, Johann H, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L, Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves, Abe-Ouchi, Ayako, Albani, Samuel, Bartlein, Patrick J, Brierley, Chris, Crucifix, Michel, Dolan, Aisling, Fernandez-Donado, Laura, Fischer, Hubertus, Hopcroft, Peter O, Ivanovic, Ruza F, Lambert, Fabrice, Lunt, Daniel J, Mahowald, Natalie M, Peltier, W. Richard, Phipps, Steven J, Roche, Didier M, Schmidt, Gavin A, Tarasov, Lev, Valdes, Paul J, Zhang, Qiong, and Zhou, Tianjun
- Subjects
Geophysics ,Meteorology And Climatology - Abstract
This paper is the first of a series of four GMD (Geoscientific Model Development) papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project - Phase 4 -- Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 6) experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) - Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016). The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21,000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127,000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs.
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
32. Comparing Proxy and Model Estimates of Hydroclimate Variability and Change over the Common Era
- Author
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Smerdon, Jason E, Luterbacher, Jurg, Phipps, Steven J, Anchukaitis, Kevin J, Ault, Toby, Coats, Sloan, Cobb, Kim M, Cook, Benjamin I, Colose, Chris, Felis, Thomas, Gallant, Ailie, Jungclaus, Johann H, Konecky, Bronwen, LeGrande, Allegra, Lewis, Sophie, Lopatka, Alex S, Man, Wenmin, Mankin, Justin S, Maxwell, Justin T, Otto-Bliesner, Bette L, Partin, Judson W, Singh, Deepti, Steiger, Nathan J, Stevenson, Samantha, Tierney, Jessica E, Zanchettin, Davide, Zhang, Huan, Atwood , Alyssa R, Andreu-Hayles, Laia, Baek, Seung H, Buckley, Brendan, Cook, Edward R, D’Arrigo, Rosanne, Dee, Sylvia G, Griffiths, Michael L, Kulkarni, Charuta, Kushnir, Yochanan, Lehner, Flavio, Leland, Caroline, Linderholm, Hans W, Okazaki, Atsushi, Palmer, Jonathan, Piovano, Eduardo, Raible, Christoph C, Rao, Mukund P, Scheff, Jacob, Schmidt, Gavin A, Seager, Richard, Widmann, Martin, Williams, A. Park, and Xoplaki, Elena
- Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology - Abstract
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations.We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
33. Two Tales of Initializing Decadal Climate Prediction Experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM Model
- Author
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Matei, Daniela, Pohlmann, Holger, Jungclaus, Johann, Müller, Wolfgang, Haak, Helmuth, and Marotzke, Jochem
- Published
- 2012
34. Simulation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon during the Last Millennium with the MPI Earth System Model
- Author
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Man, Wenmin, Zhou, Tianjun, and Jungclaus, Johann H.
- Published
- 2012
35. Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project.
- Author
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Jackson, Laura C., Alastrué de Asenjo, Eduardo, Bellomo, Katinka, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Haak, Helmuth, Aixue Hu, Jungclaus, Johann, Lee, Warren, Meccia, Virna L., Saenko, Oleg, Shao, Andrew, and Swingedouw, Didier
- Subjects
ATLANTIC meridional overturning circulation ,ATMOSPHERIC models - Abstract
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important part of our climate system. The AMOC is predicted to weaken under climate change, however there are theories that it may have a tipping point beyond which recovery is difficult, hence showing quasi-irreversibility (hysteresis). Although hysteresis has been seen in simple models, it has been difficult to demonstrate in comprehensive global climate models. Here we outline a set of experiments designed to explore AMOC hysteresis and sensitivity to additional freshwater input as part of the North Atlantic hosing model intercomparison project (NAHosMIP). These experiments include adding additional freshwater (hosing) for a fixed length of time to examine the rate and mechanisms or AMOC weakening, and whether the AMOC subsequently recovers once hosing stops. Initial results are shown from eight climate models participating in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP6). The AMOC weakens in all models from the freshening, but once the freshening ceases, the AMOC recovers in half of the models, and in the other half it stays in a weakened state. The difference in model behaviour cannot be explained by the ocean model resolution or type, or by details of subgridscale parameterizations. Nor can it be explained by previously proposed properties of the mean climate state such as the strength of the salinity advection feedback. Instead the AMOC recovery is determined by the climate state reached when hosing stops, with those experiments where the AMOC is weakest not experiencing a recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
36. Was there a volcanic-induced long-lasting cooling over the Northern Hemisphere in the mid-6th–7th century?
- Author
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van Dijk, Evelien, Jungclaus, Johann, Lorenz, Stephan, Timmreck, Claudia, and Krüger, Kirstin
- Subjects
VOLCANIC eruptions ,MERIDIONAL overturning circulation ,ENTHALPY ,TREE-rings ,SEA ice ,SEA level - Abstract
The climate of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in the mid-6th century was one of the coldest during the last 2 millennia based on multiple paleo-proxies. While the onset of this cold period can be clearly connected to the volcanic eruptions in 536 and 540 Common Era (CE), the duration, extent, and magnitude of the cold period are uncertain. Proxy data are sparse for the first millennium, which compounds the uncertainties of the reconstructions. To better understand the mechanisms of the prolonged cooling, we analyze new transient simulations over the Common Era and enhance the representation of mid-6th to 7th century climate by additional ensemble simulations covering 520–680 CE. We use the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model to apply the external forcing as recommended in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4. After the four large eruptions in 536, 540, 574, and 626 CE, a significant mean surface climate response in the NH lasting up to 20 years is simulated. The 2 m air temperature shows a cooling over the Arctic in winter, corresponding to the increase in Arctic sea ice, mainly in the Labrador Sea and to the east of Greenland. The increase in sea-ice extent relates to a decrease in the northward ocean heat transport into the Arctic within the first 2 years after the eruptions and to an increase in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which peaks 10 years after the eruptions. A decrease in the global ocean heat content is simulated after the eruptions that does not recover during the simulation period. These ocean–sea-ice interactions sustain the surface cooling, as the cooling lasts longer than is expected solely from the direct effects of the volcanic forcing, and are thus responsible for the multi-decadal surface cooling. In boreal summer, the main cooling occurs over the continents at midlatitudes. A dipole pattern develops with high sea level pressure and a decrease in both precipitation and evaporation poleward of 40 ∘ N. In addition, more pronounced cooling over land compared to ocean leads to an enhanced land–sea contrast. While our model ensemble simulations show a similar ∼20 -year summer cooling over NH land after the eruptions as tree ring reconstructions, a volcanic-induced century-long cooling, as reconstructed from tree ring data, does not occur in our simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
37. Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N
- Author
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Matei, Daniela, Baehr, Johanna, Jungclaus, Johann H., Haak, Helmuth, Müller, Wolfgang A., and Marotzke, Jochem
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
38. Patterns of decadal-scale Arctic warming events in simulated climate
- Author
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Beitsch, Alexander, Jungclaus, Johann H., and Zanchettin, Davide
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
39. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) Contribution to CMIP6: Investigation of Sea-Level and Ocean Climate Change in Response to CO2 Forcing
- Author
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Gregory, Jonathan M, Bouttes, Nathaelle, Griffies, Stephen M, Haak, Helmuth, Hurlin, William J, Jungclaus, Johann, Kelley, Maxwell, Lee, Warren G, Marshall, John, Romanou, Anastasia, Saenko, Oleg A, Stammer, Detlef, and Winton, Michael
- Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology - Abstract
The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sealevel rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable investigation of the model spread in behaviour in terms of physical processes as formulated in the models.
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
40. Initializing Decadal Climate Predictions with the GECCO Oceanic Synthesis : Effects on the North Atlantic
- Author
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Pohlmann, Holger, Jungclaus, Johann H., Köhl, Armin, Stammer, Detlef, and Marotzke, Jochem
- Published
- 2009
41. Subtropical Forcing of Tropical Pacific Climate and Decadal ENSO Modulation
- Author
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Matei, Daniela, Keenlyside, Noel, Latif, Mojib, and Jungclaus, Johann
- Published
- 2008
42. Timely Detection of Changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N in the Atlantic
- Author
-
Baehr, Johanna, Haak, Helmuth, Alderson, Steven, Cunningham, Stuart A., Jungclaus, Johann H., and Marotzke, Jochem
- Published
- 2007
43. Effects of Ocean Biology on the Penetrative Radiation in a Coupled Climate Model
- Author
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Wetzel, Patrick, Maier-Reimer, Ernst, Botzet, Michael, Jungclaus, Johann, Keenlyside, Noel, and Latif, Mojib
- Published
- 2006
44. Arctic–North Atlantic Interactions and Multidecadal Variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation
- Author
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Jungclaus, Johann H., Haak, Helmuth, Latif, Mojib, and Mikolajewicz, Uwe
- Published
- 2005
45. Different flavors of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
- Author
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Zanchettin, Davide, Bothe, Oliver, Müller, Wolfgang, Bader, Jürgen, and Jungclaus, Johann H.
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
46. On the additivity of climate responses to the volcanic and solar forcing in the early 19th century.
- Author
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Fang, Shih-Wei, Timmreck, Claudia, Jungclaus, Johann, Krüger, Kirstin, and Schmidt, Hauke
- Subjects
NINETEENTH century ,VOLCANIC eruptions ,SOLAR air conditioning ,POLAR vortex ,ZONAL winds ,SPECTRAL irradiance - Abstract
The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. The 1809 unidentified eruption and the 1815 Tambora eruption happened consecutively during the Dalton minimum of solar irradiance; however, the relative role of the two forcing (volcano and solar) agents is still unclear. In this study, we examine the responses from a set of early 19th century simulations with combined and separated volcanic and solar forcing agents, as suggested in the protocol for the past1000 experiment of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – Phase 4 (PMIP4). From 20-member ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM1.2-LR), we find that the volcano- and solar-induced surface cooling is additive in the global mean/large scale, regardless of combining or separating the forcing agents. The two solar reconstructions (SATIRE (Spectral and Total Irradiance REconstruction-Millennia model) and PMOD (Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos)) contribute to a cooling before and after 1815 of ∼0.05 and ∼0.15 K monthly average near-surface air cooling, respectively, indicating a limited solar contribution to the early 19th century cold period. The volcanic events provide the main cooling contributions, inducing a surface cooling that peaks at ∼0.82 K for the 1809 event and ∼1.35 K for Tambora. After the Tambora eruption, the temperature in most regions increases toward climatology largely within 5 years, along with the reduction of volcanic forcing. In the northern extratropical oceans, the temperature increases slowly at a constant rate until 1830, which is related to the reduction of seasonality and the concurrent changes in Arctic sea-ice extent. The albedo feedback of Arctic sea ice is found to be the main contributor to the Arctic amplification of the cooling signal. Several non-additive responses to solar and volcanic forcing happen on regional scales. In the atmosphere, the stratospheric polar vortex tends to strengthen when combining both volcano and solar forcing, even though the two forcing agents separately induce opposite-sign changes in stratospheric temperatures and zonal winds. In the ocean, when combining the two forcings, additional surface cold water propagates to the northern extratropics from the additional solar cooling in the tropics, which results in regional cooling along the propagation. Overall, this study not only quantifies the surface responses from combinations of the volcano and solar forcing, but also highlights the components that cannot be simply added from the responses of the individual forcing agents, indicating that a relatively small forcing agent (such as solar in early 19th century) can impact the response from the large forcing (such as the 1815 Tambora eruption) when considering regional climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
47. Calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation based on model-ensemble equilibrium and transient simulations from PMIP4 and PACMEDY.
- Author
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Shi, Xiaoxu, Werner, Martin, Krug, Carolin, Brierley, Chris M., Zhao, Anni, Igbinosa, Endurance, Braconnot, Pascale, Brady, Esther, Cao, Jian, D'Agostino, Roberta, Jungclaus, Johann, Liu, Xingxing, Otto-Bliesner, Bette, Sidorenko, Dmitry, Tomas, Robert, Volodin, Evgeny M., Yang, Hu, Zhang, Qiong, Zheng, Weipeng, and Lohmann, Gerrit
- Subjects
ATMOSPHERIC temperature ,SURFACE temperature ,EARTH'S orbit ,CALENDAR ,VERNAL equinox ,MONSOONS - Abstract
Numerical modeling enables a comprehensive understanding not only of the Earth's system today, but also of the past. To date, a significant amount of time and effort has been devoted to paleoclimate modeling and analysis, which involves the latest and most advanced Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). The definition of seasonality, which is influenced by slow variations in the Earth's orbital parameters, plays a key role in determining the calculated seasonal cycle of the climate. In contrast to the classical calendar used today, where the lengths of the months and seasons are fixed, the angular calendar calculates the lengths of the months and seasons according to a fixed number of degrees along the Earth's orbit. When comparing simulation results for different time intervals, it is essential to account for the angular calendar to ensure that the data for comparison are from the same position along the Earth's orbit. Most models use the classical calendar, which can lead to strong distortions of the monthly and seasonal values, especially for the climate of the past. Here, by analyzing daily outputs from multiple PMIP4 model simulations, we examine calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation under mid-Holocene, Last Interglacial, and pre-industrial climate conditions. We came to the following conclusions. (a) The largest cooling bias occurs in boreal autumn when the classical calendar is applied for the mid-Holocene and Last Interglacial, due to the fact that the vernal equinox is fixed on 21 March. (b) The sign of the temperature anomalies between the Last Interglacial and pre-industrial in boreal autumn can be reversed after the switch from the classical to angular calendar, particularly over the Northern Hemisphere continents. (c) Precipitation over West Africa is overestimated in boreal summer and underestimated in boreal autumn when the classical seasonal cycle is applied. (d) Finally, month-length adjusted values for surface air temperature and precipitation are very similar to the day-length adjusted values, and therefore correcting the calendar based on the monthly model results can largely reduce the artificial bias. In addition, we examine the calendar effects in three transient simulations for 6–0 ka by AWI-ESM, MPI-ESM, and IPSL-CM. We find significant discrepancies between adjusted and unadjusted temperature values over continents for both hemispheres in boreal autumn, while for other seasons the deviations are relatively small. A drying bias can be found in the summer monsoon precipitation in Africa (in the classical calendar), whereby the magnitude of bias becomes smaller over time. Overall, our study underlines the importance of the application of calendar transformation in the analysis of climate simulations. Neglecting the calendar effects could lead to a profound artificial distortion of the calculated seasonal cycle of surface air temperature and precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
48. Predictability of large interannual Arctic sea-ice anomalies
- Author
-
Tietsche, Steffen, Notz, Dirk, Jungclaus, Johann H., and Marotzke, Jochem
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
49. Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs)
- Author
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Griffies, Stephen M., Biastoch, Arne, Böning, Claus, Bryan, Frank, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Chassignet, Eric P., England, Matthew H., Gerdes, Rüdiger, Haak, Helmuth, Hallberg, Robert W., Hazeleger, Wilco, Jungclaus, Johann, Large, William G., Madec, Gurvan, Pirani, Anna, Samuels, Bonita L., Scheinert, Markus, Gupta, Alex Sen, Severijns, Camiel A., Simmons, Harper L., Treguier, Anne Marie, Winton, Mike, Yeager, Stephen, and Yin, Jianjun
- Published
- 2009
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
50. On the Additivity of Climate Responses to the Volcanic and Solar Forcing in the Early 19th Century.
- Author
-
Fang, Shih-Wei, Timmreck, Claudia, Jungclaus, Johann, Krüger, Kirstin, and Schmidt, Hauke
- Subjects
CLIMATE change ,VOLCANOES ,SURFACE cooling ,SURFACE preparation - Abstract
The early 19
th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. The 1809 unidentified eruption and the 1815 Tambora eruption happened consecutively during the Dalton minimum of solar irradiance; however, the relative role of the two forcing (volcano and solar) agents is still unclear. In this study, we examine the effects from combinations of one volcanic with two different solar forcing reconstructions (SATIRE and PMOD) suggested in the protocol for the past1000 experiment of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – Phase 4 (PMIP4) by simulating the early 19th century climate. From 20-member ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-LR), we find that the volcano- and solar-induced surface cooling is in general additive, regardless of combining or separating the forcing agents. The two solar reconstructions (SATIRE and PMOD) contribute on average ~0.05 K/month and ~0.15 K/month surface air cooling, respectively, indicating a limited solar contribution to the early 19th century cold period. The volcanic events provide the main cooling contributions, inducing a surface cooling peak of ~0.82 K for the 1809 event and ~1.35 K for Tambora. After the Tambora eruption, the cooling in most regions reduces largely within 5 years when a global cooling of ~0.34 K is reached, along with the reduction of volcanic forcing. In the northern extratropical oceans, the cooling reduces only slowly with a constant rate until 1830, which is related to the reduction of seasonality and the increased Arctic sea-ice extent. Also, the albedo feedback of Arctic sea ice is found to be the main contributor to the Arctic amplification of the cooling signal. Several non-additive responses to solar and volcanic forcing happen on regional scales. In the atmosphere, the polar vortex tends to strengthen when combining both volcano and solar forcing, even though the two forcing agents separately induce opposite responses. In the ocean, when combining the two forcings, additional surface cold water propagates to the northern extra-tropics from the additional solar cooling in the tropics, which results in regional cooling along the propagation. Overall, this study not only quantifies the surface responses from combinations of volcano and solar forcing, but also highlights the components that cannot be simply added from the responses of the individual forcing agents, indicating that a relatively small forcing agent (such as solar in early 19th century) can impact the response from the large forcing (such as the Tambora eruption) when considering regional climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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