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In the Northern Hemisphere, the mid-6th century was one of the coldest periods of the last 2000 years, as indicated by both proxy records and Earth System Model (ESM) simulations. This cold period was initiated by volcanic eruptions in 536 CE and 540 CE. Evidence from historical sources, archaeological findings, and proxy records suggests that the extent and severity of this volcanic induced cooling was spatially heterogeneous and that the effect on society resulted in adaptation and resilience at some locations, whereas social crisis has been indicated at others. Here, we study the effect of the volcanic double event in 536 CE and 540 CE on the climate and society in Scandinavia with a special focus on Southern Norway. Using an ensemble of Max Planck Institute ESM transient simulations for 521–680 CE, the temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns are studied. The simulated cooling magnitude is then used as input for the growing degree day (GDD) model set-up for Southern Norway. This GDD model indicates the possible effects on agriculture for three different study areas in Southern Norway, representative of typical meteorological and landscape conditions. Pollen from bogs and archaeological records inside the study area are then analysed at high resolution (1–3 cm sample intervals) to give insights into the validity of the GDD model set-up with regard to the volcanic climate impact on the regional scale, and to link the different types of data sets. After the 536/540 CE double event, a maximum surface air cooling of up to 3.5 °C during the mean growing season is simulated regionally in Southern Norway. With a worst-case scenario cooling of 3 °C, the GDD model indicates crop failures were likely in our northernmost and western study areas, while crops were more likely to mature in the southeastern study area. These results are in agreement with the pollen records from the respective areas. During the sixth century, excavations show an abandonment of farms, severe social impact but also a continuation of occupation or a mix of those. In addition, archaeological findings from one of the excavation sites suggest wetter conditions for the mid-sixth century in Scandinavia, as simulated by individual ensemble members. Finally, we discuss the likely climate and societal impacts of the 536/540 CE volcanic double event by synthesising the new and available data sets for the whole Scandinavia.

The climate of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in the mid-6th century was one of the coldest during the last 2 millennia based on multiple paleo-proxies. While the onset of this cold period can be clearly connected to the volcanic eruptions in 536 and 540 Common Era (CE), the duration, extent, and magnitude of the cold period are uncertain. Proxy data are sparse for the first millennium, which compounds the uncertainties of the reconstructions. To better understand the mechanisms of the prolonged cooling, we analyze new transient simulations over the Common Era and enhance the representation of mid-6th to 7th century climate by additional ensemble simulations covering 520–680 CE. We use the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model to apply the external forcing as recommended in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4. After the four large eruptions in 536, 540, 574, and 626 CE, a significant mean surface climate response in the NH lasting up to 20 years is simulated. The 2 m air temperature shows a cooling over the Arctic in winter, corresponding to the increase in Arctic sea ice, mainly in the Labrador Sea and to the east of Greenland. The increase in sea-ice extent relates to a decrease in the northward ocean heat transport into the Arctic within the first 2 years after the eruptions and to an increase in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which peaks 10 years after the eruptions. A decrease in the global ocean heat content is simulated after the eruptions that does not recover during the simulation period. These ocean–sea-ice interactions sustain the surface cooling, as the cooling lasts longer than is expected solely from the direct effects of the volcanic forcing, and are thus responsible for the multi-decadal surface cooling. In boreal summer, the main cooling occurs over the continents at midlatitudes. A dipole pattern develops with high sea level pressure and a decrease in both precipitation and evaporation poleward of 40∘ N. In addition, more pronounced cooling over land compared to ocean leads to an enhanced land–sea contrast. While our model ensemble simulations show a similar ∼20-year summer cooling over NH land after the eruptions as tree ring reconstructions, a volcanic-induced century-long cooling, as reconstructed from tree ring data, does not occur in our simulations.

In 1963 a series of eruptions of Mt. Agung, Indonesia, resulted in the third largest eruption of the 20th century and claimed about 1900 lives. Two eruptions of this series injected SO2 into the stratosphere, which can create a long-lasting stratospheric sulfate layer. The estimated mass flux of the first eruption was about twice as large as the mass flux of the second eruption. We followed the estimated emission profiles and assumed for the first eruption on 17 March an injection rate of 4.7 Tg SO2 and 2.3 Tg SO2 for the second eruption on 16 May. The injected sulfur forms a sulfate layer in the stratosphere. The evolution of sulfur is nonlinear and depends on the injection rate and aerosol background conditions. We performed ensembles of two model experiments, one with a single eruption and a second one with two eruptions. The two smaller eruptions result in a lower sulfur burden, smaller aerosol particles, and 0.1 to 0.3 Wm−2 (10 %–20 %) lower radiative forcing in monthly mean global average compared to the individual eruption experiment. The differences are the consequence of slightly stronger meridional transport due to different seasons of the eruptions, lower injection height of the second eruption, and the resulting different aerosol evolution. Overall, the evolution of the volcanic clouds is different in case of two eruptions than with a single eruption only. The differences between the two experiments are significant. We conclude that there is no justification to use one eruption only and both climatic eruptions should be taken into account in future emission datasets.

The supereruption of Los Chocoyos (14.6∘ N, 91.2∘ W) in Guatemala ∼84 kyr ago was one of the largest volcanic events of the past 100 000 years. Recent petrologic data show that the eruption released very large amounts of climate-relevant sulfur and ozone-destroying chlorine and bromine gases (523±94 Mt sulfur, 1200±156 Mt chlorine, and 2±0.46 Mt bromine). Using the Earth system model (ESM) of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) coupled with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6), we simulated the impacts of the sulfur- and halogen-rich Los Chocoyos eruption on the preindustrial Earth system. Our simulations show that elevated sulfate burden and aerosol optical depth (AOD) persists for 5 years in the model, while the volcanic halogens stay elevated for nearly 15 years. As a consequence, the eruption leads to a collapse of the ozone layer with global mean column ozone values dropping to 50 DU (80 % decrease) and leading to a 550 % increase in surface UV over the first 5 years, with potential impacts on the biosphere. The volcanic eruption shows an asymmetric-hemispheric response with enhanced aerosol, ozone, UV, and climate signals over the Northern Hemisphere. Surface climate is impacted globally due to peak AOD of >6, which leads to a maximum surface cooling of >6 K, precipitation and terrestrial net primary production decrease of >25 %, and sea ice area increases of 40 % in the first 3 years. Locally, a wetting (>100 %) and strong increase in net primary production (NPP) (>700 %) over northern Africa is simulated in the first 5 years and related to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to the southern tropics. The ocean responds with pronounced El Niño conditions in the first 3 years that shift to the southern tropics and are coherent with the ITCZ change. Recovery to pre-eruption ozone levels and climate takes 15 years and 30 years, respectively. The long-lasting surface cooling is sustained by an immediate increase in the Arctic sea ice area, followed by a decrease in poleward ocean heat transport at 60∘ N which lasts up to 20 years. In contrast, when simulating Los Chocoyos conventionally by including sulfur and neglecting halogens, we simulate a larger sulfate burden and AOD, more pronounced surface climate changes, and an increase in column ozone. By comparing our aerosol chemistry ESM results to other supereruption simulations with aerosol climate models, we find a higher surface climate impact per injected sulfur amount than previous studies for our different sets of model experiments, since the CESM2(WACCM6) creates smaller aerosols with a longer lifetime, partly due to the interactive aerosol chemistry. As the model uncertainties for the climate response to supereruptions are very large, observational evidence from paleo archives and a coordinated model intercomparison would help to improve our understanding of the climate and environment response.

Halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLSs) are naturally produced in the ocean and emitted to the atmosphere. When transported to the stratosphere, these compounds can have a significant influence on the ozone layer and climate. During a research cruise on RV Sonne in the subtropical and tropical west Indian Ocean in July and August 2014, we measured the VSLSs, methyl iodide (CH3I) and for the first time bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), in surface seawater and the marine atmosphere to derive their emission strengths. Using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART with ERA-Interim meteorological fields, we calculated the direct contribution of observed VSLS emissions to the stratospheric halogen burden during the Asian summer monsoon. Furthermore, we compare the in situ calculations with the interannual variability of transport from a larger area of the west Indian Ocean surface to the stratosphere for July 2000–2015. We found that the west Indian Ocean is a strong source for CHBr3 (910 pmol m−2 h−1), very strong source for CH2Br2 (930 pmol m−2 h−1), and an average source for CH3I (460 pmol m−2 h−1). The atmospheric transport from the tropical west Indian Ocean surface to the stratosphere experiences two main pathways. On very short timescales, especially relevant for the shortest-lived compound CH3I (3.5 days lifetime), convection above the Indian Ocean lifts oceanic air masses and VSLSs towards the tropopause. On a longer timescale, the Asian summer monsoon circulation transports oceanic VSLSs towards India and the Bay of Bengal, where they are lifted with the monsoon convection and reach stratospheric levels in the southeastern part of the Asian monsoon anticyclone. This transport pathway is more important for the longer-lived brominated compounds (17 and 150 days lifetime for CHBr3 and CH2Br2). The entrainment of CHBr3 and CH3I from the west Indian Ocean to the stratosphere during the Asian summer monsoon is lower than from previous cruises in the tropical west Pacific Ocean during boreal autumn and early winter but higher than from the tropical Atlantic during boreal summer. In contrast, the projected CH2Br2 entrainment was very high because of the high emissions during the west Indian Ocean cruise. The 16-year July time series shows highest interannual variability for the shortest-lived CH3I and lowest for the longest-lived CH2Br2. During this time period, a small increase in VSLS entrainment from the west Indian Ocean through the Asian monsoon to the stratosphere is found. Overall, this study confirms that the subtropical and tropical west Indian Ocean is an important source region of halogenated VSLSs, especially CH2Br2, to the troposphere and stratosphere during the Asian summer monsoon.

The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is the transition region between the well mixed, convective troposphere and the radiatively controlled stratosphere with air masses showing chemical and dynamical properties of both regions. The representation of the TTL in meteorological reanalysis data sets is important for studying the complex interactions of circulation, convection, trace gases, clouds and radiation. In this paper, we present the evaluation of TTL characteristics in reanalysis data sets that has been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere– troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The most recent atmospheric reanalysis data sets all provide realistic representations of the major characteristics of the temperature structure within the TTL. There is good agreement between reanalysis estimates of tropical mean temperatures and radio occultation data, with relatively small cold biases for most data sets. Temperatures at the cold point and lapse rate tropopause levels, on the other hand, show warm biases in reanalyses when compared to observations. This tropopause-level warm bias is related to the vertical resolution of the reanalysis data, with the smallest bias found for data sets with the highest vertical resolution around the tropopause. Differences of the cold point temperature maximise over equatorial Africa, related to Kelvin wave activity and associated disturbances in TTL temperatures. Model simulations of air mass transport into the stratosphere driven by reanalyses with a warm cold point bias can be expected to have too little dehydration. Interannual variability in reanalysis temperatures is best constrained in the upper TTL, with larger differences at levels below the cold point. The reanalyses reproduce the temperature responses to major dynamical and radiative signals such as volcanic eruptions and the QBO. Long-term reanalysis trends in temperature in the upper TTL show good agreement with trends derived from adjusted radiosonde data sets indicating significant stratospheric cooling of around −0.5 to −1 K/decade. At 100 hPa and the cold point, most of the reanalyses suggest small but significant cooling trends of −0.3 to −0.6 K/decade that are statistically consistent with trends based on the adjusted radiosonde data sets. Advances of the reanalysis and observational systems over the last decades have led to a clear improvement of the TTL reanalyses products over time. Biases of the temperature profiles and differences in interannual variability clearly decreased in 2006, when densely sampled radio occultation data started being assimilated by the reanalyses. While there is an overall good agreement, different reanalyses offer different advantages in the TTL such as realistic profile and cold point temperature, continuous time series or a realistic representation of signals of interannual variability. Their use in model simulations and in comparisons with climate model output should be tailored to their specific strengths and weaknesses.

We investigate the contribution of oceanic methyl iodide (CH3I) to the stratospheric iodine budget. Based on CH3I measurements from three tropical ship campaigns and the Lagrangian transport model FLEXPART, we provide a detailed analysis of CH3I transport from the ocean surface to the cold point in the upper tropical tropopause layer (TTL). While average oceanic emissions differ by less than 50% from campaign to campaign, the measurements show much stronger variations within each campaign. A positive correlation between the oceanic CH3I emissions and the efficiency of CH3I troposphere–stratosphere transport has been identified for some cruise sections. The mechanism of strong horizontal surface winds triggering large emissions on the one hand and being associated with tropical convective systems, such as developing typhoons, on the other hand, could explain the identified correlations. As a result of the simultaneous occurrence of large CH3I emissions and strong vertical uplift, localized maximum mixing ratios of 0.6 ppt CH3I at the cold point have been determined for observed peak emissions during the SHIVA (Stratospheric Ozone: Halogen Impacts in a Varying Atmosphere)-Sonne research vessel campaign in the coastal western Pacific. The other two campaigns give considerably smaller maxima of 0.1 ppt CH3I in the open western Pacific and 0.03 ppt in the coastal eastern Atlantic. In order to assess the representativeness of the large local mixing ratios, we use climatological emission scenarios to derive global upper air estimates of CH3I abundances. The model results are compared with available upper air measurements, including data from the recent ATTREX and HIPPO2 aircraft campaigns. In the eastern Pacific region, the location of the available measurement campaigns in the upper TTL, the comparisons give a good agreement, indicating that around 0.01 to 0.02 ppt of CH3I enter the stratosphere. However, other tropical regions that are subject to stronger convective activity show larger CH3I entrainment, e.g., 0.08 ppt in the western Pacific. Overall our model results give a tropical contribution of 0.04 ppt CH3I to the stratospheric iodine budget. The strong variations in the geographical distribution of CH3I entrainment suggest that currently available upper air measurements are not representative of global estimates and further campaigns will be necessary in order to better understand the CH3I contribution to stratospheric iodine.

The stratospheric climate and variability from simulations of sixteen chemistry-climate models is evaluated. On average the polar night jet is well reproduced though its variability is less well reproduced with a large spread between models. Polar temperature biases are less than 5 K except in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) lower stratosphere in spring. The accumulated area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation is accurately reproduced for the Antarctic but underestimated for the Arctic. The shape and position of the polar vortex is well simulated, as is the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. There is a wide model spread in the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warnings (SSWs), late biases in the breakup of the SH vortex, and a weak annual cycle in the zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere. Quantitatively, "metrics" indicate a wide spread in model performance for most diagnostics with systematic biases in many, and poorer performance in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Correlations were found in the SH between errors in the final warming, polar temperatures, the leading mode of variability, and jet strength, and in the NH between errors in polar temperatures, frequency of major SSWs, and jet strength. Models with a stronger QBO have stronger tropical upwelling and a colder NH vortex. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis indicate a number of common and long-standing model problems, particularly related to the simulation of the SH and stratospheric variability. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Volcanic activity in and around the year 536 CE led to severe cold and famine, and has been speculatively linked to large-scale societal crises around the globe. Using a coupled aerosol-climate model, with eruption parameters constrained by recently re-dated ice core records and historical observations of the aerosol cloud, we reconstruct the radiative forcing resulting from a sequence of two major volcanic eruptions in 536 and 540 CE. We estimate that the decadal-scale Northern Hemisphere (NH) extra-tropical radiative forcing from this volcanic “double event” was larger than that of any period in existing reconstructions of the last 1200 years. Earth system model simulations including the volcanic forcing show peak NH mean temperature anomalies reaching more than −2 °C, and show agreement with the limited number of available maximum latewood density temperature reconstructions. The simulations also produce decadal-scale anomalies of Arctic sea ice. The simulated cooling is interpreted in terms of probable impacts on agricultural production in Europe, and implies a high likelihood of multiple years of significant decreases in crop production across Scandinavia, supporting the theory of a connection between the 536 and 540 eruptions and evidence of societal crisis dated to the mid-6th century. © 2016 The Author(s)

Halocarbons are produced naturally in the oceans by biological and chemical processes. They are emitted from surface seawater into the atmosphere, where they take part in numerous chemical processes such as ozone destruction and the oxidation of mercury and dimethyl sulfide. Here we present oceanic and atmospheric halocarbon data for the Peruvian upwelling zone obtained during the M91 cruise onboard the research vessel METEOR in December 2012. Surface waters during the cruise were characterized by moderate concentrations of bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2) correlating with diatom biomass derived from marker pigment concentrations, which suggests this phytoplankton group is a likely source. Concentrations measured for the iodinated compounds methyl iodide (CH3I) of up to 35.4 pmol L−1, chloroiodomethane (CH2ClI) of up to 58.1 pmol L−1 and diiodomethane (CH2I2) of up to 32.4 pmol L−1 in water samples were much higher than previously reported for the tropical Atlantic upwelling systems. Iodocarbons also correlated with the diatom biomass and even more significantly with dissolved organic matter (DOM) components measured in the surface water. Our results suggest a biological source of these compounds as a significant driving factor for the observed large iodocarbon concentrations. Elevated atmospheric mixing ratios of CH3I (up to 3.2 ppt), CH2ClI (up to 2.5 ppt) and CH2I2 (3.3 ppt) above the upwelling were correlated with seawater concentrations and high sea-to-air fluxes. During the first part of the cruise, the enhanced iodocarbon production in the Peruvian upwelling contributed significantly to tropospheric iodine levels, while this contribution was considerably smaller during the second part.

In late May 2005 unusual high levels of solar ultraviolet radiation were observed over central Europe. In Northern Germany the measured irradiance of erythemally effective radiation exceeded the climatological mean by more than about 20%. An extreme low ozone event for the season coincided with high solar elevation angles and high pressure induced clear sky conditions leading to the highest value of erythemal UV-radiation ever observed over this location in May since 1994. This hereafter called "ozone mini-hole" was caused by an elevation of tropopause height accompanied with a poleward advection of ozone-poor air from the tropics. The resultant increase in UV-radiation is of particular significance for human health. Dynamically induced low ozone episodes that happen in late spring can considerably enhance the solar UV-radiation in mid latitudes and therefore contribute to the UV-burden of people living in these regions.

The purpose of this study is to investigate horizontal transport processes in the winter stratosphere using data with a resolution relevant for chemistry and climate modeling. For this reason the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (FUB-CMAM) with its model top at 83km altitude, increased horizontal resolution T42 and the semi-Lagrangian transport scheme for advecting passive tracers is used. A new approach of this paper is the classification of specific transport phenomena within the stratosphere into tropical-subtropical streamers (e.g. Offermann et al., 1999) and polar vortex extrusions hereafter called polar vortex streamers. To investigate the role played by these large-scale structures on the inter-annual and seasonal variability of transport processes in northern mid-latitudes, the global occurrence of such streamers was calculated based on a 10-year model climatology, concentrating on the existence of the Arctic polar vortex. For the identification and counting of streamers, the new method of zonal anomaly was chosen. The analysis of the months October-May yielded a maximum occurrence of tropical-subtropical streamers during Arctic winter and spring in the middle and upper stratosphere. Synoptic maps revealed highest intensities in the subtropics over East Asia with a secondary maximum over the Atlantic in the northern hemisphere. Furthermore, tropical-subtropical streamers exhibited a higher occurrence than polar vortex streamers, indicating that the subtropical barrier is more permeable than the polar vortex barrier (edge) in the model, which is in good correspondence with observations (e.g. Plumb, 2002; Neu et al., 2003). Interesting for the total ozone decrease in mid-latitudes is the consideration of the lower stratosphere for tropical-subtropical streamers and the stratosphere above ~20km altitude for polar vortex streamers, where strongest ozone depletion is observed at polar latitudes (WMO, 2003). In the lower stratosphere the FUB-CMAM simulated a climatological maximum of 10% occurrence of tropical-subtropical streamers over East-Asia/West Pacific and the Atlantic during early- and mid-winter. The results of this paper demonstrate that stratospheric streamers e.g. large-scale, tongue-like structures transporting tropical-subtropical and polar vortex air masses into mid-latitudes occur frequently during Arctic winter. They can therefore play a significant role on the strength and variability of the observed total ozone decrease at mid-latitudes and should not be neglected in future climate change studies.

Observations and simple theoretical arguments suggest that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex is stronger in winters following major volcanic eruptions. However, recent studies show that climate models forced by prescribed volcanic aerosol fields fail to reproduce this effect. We investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, including the strength of the NH polar vortex, in ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The model is forced by four different prescribed forcing sets representing the radiative properties of stratospheric aerosol following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo: two forcing sets are based on observations, and are commonly used in climate model simulations, and two forcing sets are constructed based on coupled aerosol–climate model simulations. For all forcings, we find that temperature and zonal wind anomalies in the NH high latitudes are not directly impacted by anomalous volcanic aerosol heating. Instead, high latitude effects result from robust enhancements in stratospheric residual circulation, which in turn result, at least in part, from enhanced stratospheric wave activity. High latitude effects are therefore much less robust than would be expected if they were the direct result of aerosol heating. While there is significant ensemble variability in the high latitude response to each aerosol forcing set, the mean response is sensitive to the forcing set used. Significant differences, for example, are found in the NH polar stratosphere temperature and zonal wind response to two different forcing data sets constructed from different versions of SAGE II aerosol observations. Significant strengthening of the polar vortex, in rough agreement with the expected response, is achieved only using aerosol forcing extracted from prior coupled aerosol–climate model simulations. Differences in the dynamical response to the different forcing sets used imply that reproducing the polar vortex responses to past eruptions, or predicting the response to future eruptions, depends on accurate representation of the space-time structure of the volcanic aerosol forcing.

20 pags, figs13, 8 tabs, Emissions of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) are poorly constrained. However, their inclusion in global models is required to simulate a realistic inorganic bromine (Bry) loading in both the troposphere, where bromine chemistry perturbs global oxidising capacity, and in the stratosphere, where it is a major sink for ozone (O3). We have performed simulations using a 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) including three top-down and a single bottom-up derived emission inventory of the major brominated VSLS bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2). We perform the first concerted evaluation of these inventories, comparing both the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions. For a quantitative evaluation of each inventory, model output is compared with independent long-term observations at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ground-based stations and with aircraft observations made during the NSF (National Science Foundation) HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) project. For CHBr3, the mean absolute deviation between model and surface observation ranges from 0.22 (38%) to 0.78 (115%) parts per trillion (ppt) in the tropics, depending on emission inventory. For CH2Br2, the range is 0.17 (24%) to 1.25 (167%) ppt. We also use aircraft observations made during the 2011 Stratospheric Ozone: Halogen Impacts in a Varying Atmosphere (SHIVA) campaign, in the tropical western Pacific. Here, the performance of the various inventories also varies significantly, but overall the CTM is able to reproduce observed CHBr3 well in the free troposphere using an inventory based on observed sea-to-air fluxes. Finally, we identify the range of uncertainty associated with these VSLS emission inventories on stratospheric bromine loading due to VSLS (BryVSLS). Our simulations show BryVSLS ranges from ∼4.0 to 8.0 ppt depending on the inventory. We report an optimised estimate at the lower end of this range (∼4 ppt) based on combining the CHBr3 and CH2Br2 inventories which give best agreement with the compilation of observations in the tropics. © 2013 Author(s).f 0., This work was supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the EU Stratospheric Ozone: Halogen Impacts in a Varying Atmosphere (SHIVA) project (SHIVA-226224-FP7-ENV-2008-1). TOMCAT work is suported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS). NOAA measurements were supported in part by NOAA’s Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle and Climate Program of its Climate Program Office. Technical assistance, standardisation, and programmatic support for NOAA flask measurements was provided by C. Siso, B. Hall, and J. W. Elkins. The HIPPO project was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF).

Volatile halogenated organic compounds containing bromine and iodine, which are naturally produced in the ocean, are involved in ozone depletion in both the troposphere and stratosphere. Three prominent compounds transporting large amounts of marine halogens into the atmosphere are bromoform (CHBr3), dibromomethane (CH2Br2) and methyl iodide (CH3I). The input of marine halogens to the stratosphere has been estimated from observations and modelling studies using low-resolution oceanic emission scenarios derived from top-down approaches. In order to improve emission inventory estimates, we calculate data-based high resolution global sea-to-air flux estimates of these compounds from surface observations within the HalOcAt (Halocarbons in the Ocean and Atmosphere) database (https://halocat.geomar.de/). Global maps of marine and atmospheric surface concentrations are derived from the data which are divided into coastal, shelf and open ocean regions. Considering physical and biogeochemical characteristics of ocean and atmosphere, the open ocean water and atmosphere data are classified into 21 regions. The available data are interpolated onto a 1°×1° grid while missing grid values are interpolated with latitudinal and longitudinal dependent regression techniques reflecting the compounds' distributions. With the generated surface concentration climatologies for the ocean and atmosphere, global sea-to-air concentration gradients and sea-to-air fluxes are calculated. Based on these calculations we estimate a total global flux of 1.5/2.5 Gmol Br yr−1 for CHBr3, 0.78/0.98 Gmol Br yr−1 for CH2Br2 and 1.24/1.45 Gmol Br yr−1 for CH3I (robust fit/ordinary least squares regression techniques). Contrary to recent studies, negative fluxes occur in each sea-to-air flux climatology, mainly in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. "Hot spots" for global polybromomethane emissions are located in the equatorial region, whereas methyl iodide emissions are enhanced in the subtropical gyre regions. Inter-annual and seasonal variation is contained within our flux calculations for all three compounds. Compared to earlier studies, our global fluxes are at the lower end of estimates, especially for bromoform. An under-representation of coastal emissions and of extreme events in our estimate might explain the mismatch between our bottom-up emission estimate and top-down approaches.

Geology 41, 707 (2013). doi:10.1130/G34044.1, Endoscopic bilateral drainage for inoperable malignant hilar biliary strictures (HBS) using metal stents is considered to be technically difficult. Furthermore, endoscopic revision of bilateral stenting after occlusion can be challenging. This study was performed to evaluate the long-term efficacy of endoscopic bilateral stent-in-stent placement of cross-wired metallic stents in high-grade malignant HBS and planned endoscopic bilateral revision.A total of 84 patients with inoperable high-grade malignant HBS were enrolled from three academic tertiary referral centers. Two cross-wired metal stents were inserted using a bilateral stent-in-stent placement method. Bilateral endoscopic revision was also performed during follow-up using either identical metal stents or plastic stents. The main outcome measurements were technical and functional success, complications, stent patency, and endoscopic revision efficacy.The technical and clinical success rates of endoscopic bilateral stent-in-stent placement of cross-wired metallic stents were 95.2% (80/84) and 92.9% (78/84), respectively. Median patency (range) and survival were 238 days (10-429) and 256 days (10-1130), respectively. Obstruction of primary bilateral stents occurred in 30.8% (24/78) of patients with functionally successful stent placement. The technical and clinical success rates of planned bilateral endoscopic revision for occluded stents were 83.3% (20/24) and 79.2% (19/24), respectively. For revision, bilateral metallic stents were placed in 11 patients (55.0%); the remaining patients received plastic stents.Palliative endoscopic bilateral stent-in-stent placement of cross-wired metallic stents was effective in patients with inoperable HBS. Revision endoscopic bilateral stenting may be feasible and successful in cases where the primary deployed metal stents are occluded., Published by American Institute of Physics, Melville, NY

Oceanic emissions of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) are expected to contribute significantly to the stratospheric halogen loading and therefore to ozone depletion. The amount of VSLS transported into the stratosphere is estimated based on in-situ observations around the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) and on modeling studies which mostly use prescribed global emission scenarios to reproduce observed atmospheric concentrations. In addition to upper-air VSLS measurements, direct observations of oceanic VSLS emissions are available along ship cruise tracks. Here we use such in-situ observations of VSLS emissions from the West Pacific and tropical Atlantic together with an atmospheric Lagrangian transport model to estimate the direct contribution of bromoform (CHBr3), and dibromomethane (CH2Br2) to the stratospheric bromine loading as well as their ozone depletion potential. Our emission-based estimates of VSLS profiles are compared to upper-air observations and thus link observed oceanic emissions and in situ TTL measurements. This comparison determines how VSLS emissions and transport in the cruise track regions contribute to global upper-air VSLS estimates. The West Pacific emission-based profiles and the global upper-air observations of CHBr3 show a relatively good agreement indicating that emissions from the West Pacific provide an average contribution to the global CHBr3 budget. The tropical Atlantic, although also being a CHBr3 source region, is of less importance for global upper-air CHBr3 estimates as revealed by the small emission-based abundances in the TTL. Western Pacific CH2Br2 emission-based estimates are considerably smaller than upper-air observations as a result of the relatively low sea-to-air flux found in the West Pacific. Together, CHBr3 and CH2Br2 emissions from the West Pacific are projected to contribute to the stratospheric bromine budget with 0.4 pptv Br on average and 2.3 pptv Br for cases of maximum emissions through product and source gas injection. These relatively low estimates reveal that the tropical West Pacific, although characterized by strong convective transport, might overall contribute less VSLS to the stratospheric bromine budget than other regions as a result of only low CH2Br2 and moderate CHBr3 oceanic emissions.

Climatic consequences of the Young Toba Tuff (YTT) eruption about 73 ka are a crucial argument in the current discussion about the fate of modern humans, especially in Africa and Asia. Earth system model (ESM) simulations of the YTT eruption are used to investigate its regional climate impacts, in particular focusing on areas relevant to human evolutionary issues during that time. Uncertainties concerning the stratospheric sulphur emission for the YTT eruption are addressed by comparing ESM simulations of a 100 times Pinatubo-like eruption as an upper and a 3 times Pinatubo-like (Tambora) eruption as a lower estimate. Information about transient changes in vegetation types after the YTT eruption are obtained by forcing an offline dynamical global vegetation model with the climate anomalies simulated by the ESM under both glacial and interglacial background climate conditions. The simulated temperature changes in those areas that were inhabited by humans suggest thermal discomfort, but not a real challenge for survival. Precipitation is reduced in all regions during the first two years but recovers quickly thereafter. Some catchments in these regions (Ganges/Brahmaputra, Nile), experience an over-compensation in precipitation during the third to fifth post-eruption years which is also reflected in anomalously strong river runoffs. Change in vegetation composition may have created the biggest pressure on humans, who had to adapt to more open space with fewer trees and more grasses for some decades especially in the African regions. The strongest environmental impacts of the YTT eruption are simulated under interglacial background conditions suggesting that the climate effects of the YTT eruption did not impact humans on a major scale and for a period long enough to have dramatic consequences for their survival.

A number of field-campaigns in the tropics have been conducted in the recent years with two different LIDAR systems at Paramaribo in Suriname (5.8° N, 55.2° W). The lidars detect particles in the atmosphere with high vertical and temporal resolution and are capable of detecting extremely thin cloud layers which frequently occur in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Radiosonde as well as operational ECMWF analysis show that temperature anomalies caused by equatorial Kelvin waves propagate downward, well below the cold point tropopause (CPT). We find a clear correlation between the temperature anomalies introduced by these waves and the occurrence of thin cirrus in the TTL. In particular we found that extremely thin ice clouds form regularly where cold anomalies shift the tropopause to high altitudes. This finding suggests an influence of Kelvin wave activity on the dehydration in the TTL and thus on the global stratospheric water vapour concentration.

The first three Arctic winters of the ACE mission represented two extremes of winter variability: Stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in 2004 and 2006 were among the strongest, most prolonged on record; 2005 was a record cold winter. Canadian Arctic Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) Validation Campaigns were conducted at Eureka (80° N, 86° W) during each of these winters. New satellite measurements from ACE-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER), and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), along with meteorological analyses and Eureka lidar temperatures, are used to detail the meteorology in these winters, to demonstrate its influence on transport, and to provide a context for interpretation of ACE-FTS and validation campaign observations. During the 2004 and 2006 SSWs, the vortex broke down throughout the stratosphere, reformed quickly in the upper stratosphere, and remained weak in the middle and lower stratosphere. The stratopause reformed at very high altitude, near 75 km. ACE measurements covered both vortex and extra-vortex conditions in each winter, except in late-February through mid-March 2004 and 2006, when the strong, pole-centered vortex that reformed after the SSWs resulted in ACE sampling only inside the vortex in the middle through upper stratosphere. The 2004 and 2006 Eureka campaigns were during the recovery from the SSWs, with the redeveloping vortex over Eureka. 2005 was the coldest winter on record in the lower stratosphere, but with an early final warming in mid-March. The vortex was over Eureka at the start of the 2005 campaign, but moved away as it broke up. Disparate temperature profile structure and vortex evolution resulted in much lower (higher) temperatures in the upper (lower) stratosphere in 2004 and 2006 than in 2005. Satellite temperatures agree well with lidar data up to 50–60 km, and ACE-FTS, MLS and SABER show good agreement in high-latitude temperatures throughout the winters. Consistent with a strong, cold upper stratospheric vortex and enhanced radiative cooling after the SSWs, MLS and ACE-FTS trace gas measurements show strongly enhanced descent in the upper stratospheric vortex in late January through March 2006 compared to that in 2005.

During the European heat wave summer 2003 with predominant high pressure conditions we performed a detailed study of upper tropospheric humidity and ice particles which yielded striking results concerning the occurrence of ice supersaturated regions (ISSR), cirrus, and contrails. Our study is based on lidar observations and meteorological data obtained at Lindenberg/Germany (52.2° N, 14.1° E) as well as the analysis of the European centre for medium range weather forecast (ECMWF). Cirrus clouds were detected in 55% of the lidar profiles and a large fraction of them were subvisible (optical depth

A long-term climatology of air mass transport through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is presented, covering the period from 1962–2005. The transport through the TTL is calculated with a Lagrangian approach using radiative heating rates as vertical velocities in an isentropic trajectory model. We demonstrate the improved performance of such an approach compared to previous studies using vertical winds from meteorological analyses. Within the upper part of the TTL, the averaged diabatic ascent is 0.5 K/day during Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters 1992–2001. Climatological maps show a cooling and strengthening of this part of the residual circulation during the 1990s and early 2000s compared to the long-term mean. Lagrangian cold point (LCP) fields show systematic differences for varying time periods and natural forcing components. The interannual variability of LCP temperature and density fields is found to be influenced by volcanic eruptions, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the solar cycle. The coldest and driest TTL is reached during QBO easterly phase and La Niña over the western Pacific, whereas during volcanic eruptions, El Niño and QBO westerly phase it is warmer and less dry.

The sensitivity of the middle atmosphere circulation to ozone depletion and increase in greenhouse gases is assessed by performing multiyear simulations with a chemistry-climate model. Three simulations with fixed boundary conditions have been carried out: one simulation for the near-past ( 1960) and two simulations for the near-present ( 1990 and 2000) conditions, including changes in greenhouse gases, in total organic chlorine, and in average sea surface temperatures. Changes in ozone are simulated interactively by the coupled model. It is found that in the stratosphere, ozone decreases, and that in the Antarctic, the ozone hole develops in both the 1990 and the 2000 simulations but not in the 1960 simulation, as observed. The simulated temperature decreases in the stratosphere and mesosphere from the near past to the present, with the largest changes at the stratopause and at the South Pole in the lower stratosphere, in agreement with current knowledge of temperature trends. In the Arctic lower stratosphere, a cooling in March with respect to the 1960 simulation is found only for the 2000 simulation. Wave activity emerging from the troposphere is found to be comparable in the winters of the 1960 and 2000 simulations, suggesting that ozone depletion and greenhouse gases increase contribute to the 2000 - 1960 March cooling in the Arctic lower stratosphere. These results therefore provide support to the interpretation that the extreme low temperatures observed in March in the last decade can arise from radiative and chemical processes, although other factors cannot be ruled out. The comparison of the 1960 and 2000 simulations shows an increase in downwelling in the mesosphere at the time of cooling in the lower stratosphere ( in March in the Arctic; in October in the Antarctic). The mesospheric increase in downwelling can be explained as the response of the gravity waves to the stronger winds associated with the cooling in the lower stratosphere. Planetary waves appear to contribute to the downward shift of the increased downwelling, with a delay of about a month. The increase in dynamical heating associated with the increased downwelling may limit the cooling and the strengthening of the lower stratospheric polar vortex from above, facilitating ozone recovery and providing a negative dynamical feedback. In both the Arctic and Antarctic the cooling from ozone depletion is found to affect the area covered with polar stratospheric clouds in spring, which is substantially increased from the 1960 to the 2000 simulations. In turn, increased amounts of polar stratospheric clouds can facilitate further ozone depletion in the 2000 simulation.

Volcanic ash (VA) clouds in flight corridors present a significant threat to aircraft operations as VA particles can cause damage to gas turbine engine components that lead to a reduction of engine performance and compromise flight safety. In the last decade, research has mainly focused on processes such as erosion of compressor blades and static components caused by impinging ash particles as well as clogging and/or corrosion effects of soft or molten ash particles on hot section turbine airfoils and components. However, there is a lack of information on how the fan separates ingested VA particles from the core stream flow into the bypass flow and therefore influences the mass concentration inside the engine core section, which is most vulnerable and critical for safety. In this numerical simulation study, we investigated the VA particle–fan interactions and resulting reductions in particle mass concentrations entering the engine core section as a function of particle size, fan rotation rate, and for two different flight altitudes. For this, we used a high-bypass gas-turbine engine design, with representative intake, fan, spinner, and splitter geometries for numerical computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations including a Lagrangian particle-tracking algorithm. Our results reveal that particle–fan interactions redirect particles from the core stream flow into the bypass stream tube, which leads to a significant particle mass concentration reduction inside the engine core section. The results also show that the particle–fan interactions increase with increasing fan rotation rates and VA particle size. Depending on ingested VA size distributions, the particle mass inside the engine core flow can be up to 30% reduced compared to the incoming particle mass flow. The presented results enable future calculations of effective core flow exposure or dosages based on simulated or observed atmospheric VA particle size distribution, which is required to quantify engine failure mechanisms after exposure to VA. As an example, we applied our methodology to a recent aircraft encounter during the Mt. Kelud 2014 eruption. Based on ambient VA concentrations simulated with an atmospheric particle dispersion model (FLEXPART), we calculated the effective particle mass concentration inside the core stream flow along the actual flight track and compared it with the whole engine exposure.