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The fisheries sector is crucial to the Bangladeshi economy and wellbeing, accounting for 4.4% of national gross domestic product and 22.8% of agriculture sector production, and supplying ca. 60% of the national animal protein intake. Fish is vital to the 16 million Bangladeshis living near the coast, a number that has doubled since the 1980s. Here, we develop and apply tools to project the long-term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries under climate and fisheries management scenarios, based on downscaling a global climate model, using associated river flow and nutrient loading estimates, projecting high-resolution changes in physical and biochemical ocean properties, and eventually projecting fish production and catch potential under different fishing mortality targets. We place particular interest on Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca. 11% of total catches, and Bombay duck (Harpadon nehereus), a low price fish that is the second highest catch in Bangladesh and is highly consumed by low-income communities. It is concluded that the impacts of climate change, under greenhouse emissions scenario A1B, are likely to reduce the potential fish production in the Bangladesh exclusive economic zone by ,10%. However, these impacts are larger for the two target species. Under sustainable management practices, we expect Hilsa shad catches to show a minor decline in potential catch by 2030 but a significant (25%) decline by 2060. However, if overexploitation is allowed, catches are projected to fall much further, by almost 95% by 2060, compared with the Business as Usual scenario for the start of the 21st century. For Bombay duck, potential catches by 2060 under sustainable scenarios will produce a decline of ,20% compared with current catches. The results demonstrate that management can mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change on ecosystem productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The FAO AquaCrop model has been widely applied throughout the world to simulate crop responses to deficit water applications. However, its application to saline conditions is not yet reported, though saline soils are common in coastal areas. In this study, we parameterized and tested AquaCrop to simulate rice yield under different salinity regimes. The data and information required in the model were collected through a field experiment at the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Gazipur. The experiment was conducted with the BRRI Dhan28, a popular boro rice variety in Bangladesh, with five levels of saline water irrigation, three replicates for each level. In addition, field monitoring was carried out at Satkhira in the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh to collect data and information based on farmers' practices and to further validate the model. The results indicated that the AquaCrop model with most of its default parameters could replicate the variation of rice yield with the variation of salinity reasonably well. The root mean square error and mean absolute error of the model yield were only 0.12 t per ha and 0.03 t per ha, respectively. The crop response versus soil salinity stress curve was found to be convex in shape with a lower threshold of 2 dS m−1, an upper threshold of 10 dS m−1 and a shape factor of 2.4. As the crop production system in the coastal belt of Bangladesh has become vulnerable to climate induced sea-level rise and the consequent increase in water and soil salinity, the AquaCrop would be a useful tool in assessing the potential impact of these future changes as well as other climatic parameters on rice yield in the coastal region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: There is a need for better links between hydrology and ecology, specifically between landscapes and riverscapes to understand how processes and factors controlling the transport and storage of environmental pollution have affected or will affect the freshwater biota. Here we show how the INCA modelling framework, specifically INCA-Sed (the Integrated Catchments model for Sediments) can be used to link sediment delivery from the landscape to sediment changes in-stream. INCA-Sed is a dynamic, process-based, daily time step model. The first complete description of the equations used in the INCA-Sed software (version 1.9.11) is presented. This is followed by an application of INCA-Sed made to the River Lugg (1077km2) in Wales. Excess suspended sediment can negatively affect salmonid health. The Lugg has a large and potentially threatened population of both Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Brown Trout (Salmo trutta). With the exception of the extreme sediment transport processes, the model satisfactorily simulated both the hydrology and the sediment dynamics in the catchment. Model results indicate that diffuse soil loss is the most important sediment generation process in the catchment. In the River Lugg, the mean annual Guideline Standard for suspended sediment concentration, proposed by UKTAG, of 25mgl−1 is only slightly exceeded during the simulation period (1995–2000), indicating only minimal effect on the Atlantic salmon population. However, the daily time step simulation of INCA-Sed also allows the investigation of the critical spawning period. It shows that the sediment may have a significant negative effect on the fish population in years with high sediment runoff. It is proposed that the fine settled particles probably do not affect the salmonid egg incubation process, though suspended particles may damage the gills of fish and make the area unfavourable for spawning if the conditions do not improve. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]