8 results on '"Leeming, Kathryn A."'
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2. New methods in time series analysis : univariate testing and network autoregression modelling
- Author
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Leeming, Kathryn and Nason, Guy
- Subjects
510 - Abstract
This thesis presents new methods in time series analysis focusing on three areas: stationarity testing, network autoregression modelling, and local white noise testing. We begin by describing a bespoke stationarity test for use when univariate data has missing observations. This test is based upon a second-generation wavelet method known as the non-decimated lifting transform, which allows for the analysis of irregularly spaced data. The variance of a spectral estimate linked to the non-decimated lifting transform is used in our test statistic, and compared to the same quantity calculated on simulated stationary samples to assess significance. The second section provides a model for multivariate time series observed on nodes of a network. Our model allows such data to be modelled with few parameters, and is shown to be a useful modelling tool for predicting multivariate time series. A stationarity condition and consistency results for this model are described, and results are generated using our software package for fitting this model. A local white noise test is motivated in the third section, which can be applied at many different positions in a time series. The smoothed wavelet periodogram forms the basis of our test, and relevant distributional results for its implementation are described, including new results of Haar and Shannon wavelet quantities. Different test statistics are investigated, each based upon testing equality of the periodogram at different scales.
- Published
- 2019
3. Functional data analysis to investigate controls on and changes in the seasonality of UK baseflow.
- Author
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Leeming, Kathryn A., Bloomfield, John P., Coxon, Gemma, and Zheng, Yanchen
- Subjects
- *
GLOBAL warming , *WATER security , *FUNCTIONAL analysis , *RAINFALL , *ECOSYSTEMS - Abstract
Continuous streamflow is critical for sustaining ecological systems and ensuring water resource security. Understanding controls on and changes in flows, including the seasonality of baseflow, is therefore an important task. Baseflow seasons have typically been investigated separately, potentially missing hydroecologically important timing changes. Instead, we apply a functional data analysis clustering approach to seasonal patterns of baseflow hydrographs for 671 catchments across Great Britain (GB). The baseflow clusters are characterized as early-, mid-, and late-season peaks. The spatial distribution of the baseflow seasonality clusters is closely connected to the baseflow index and a partition tree shows the influence of catchment topological, hydrogeological and soil factors. Changes in timing of baseflow seasonality are compared to climate seasonality. In GB there appears to be a small but systematic influence of a warming climate on baseflow seasonality via effective rainfall with a tendency for earlier seasonal baseflow peaks, with greater timing changes in snow-influenced catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Assessment of suspended sediment export and dynamics using in‐line turbidity sensors and time series statistical models.
- Author
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Tye, Andrew M., Leeming, Kathryn A., Gong, Mengyi, Marchant, Benjamin, and Hurst, Martin D.
- Subjects
BOX-Jenkins forecasting ,SUSPENDED sediments ,WATER quality monitoring ,WAVELETS (Mathematics) ,WATER table ,TURBIDITY - Abstract
The Coln is an ecologically sensitive river in a limestone dominated catchment with no major tributaries. Three in‐line turbidity sensors were installed to monitor changes in the dynamics of suspended sediment transport from headwaters to the confluence. The aims were to (i) provide estimates of yield (t km−2 year−1) and likely drivers of suspended sediment over ~3 years and (ii) assess turbidity dynamics during storm events in different parts of the catchment. In addition, the sensor installation allowed a novel wavelet analysis based on identifying groups of turbidity peaks to estimate transport times of suspended sediment through the catchment. Yearly suspended sediment yields calculated for the upper catchment were typically less than 4 t ha−1 year−1 being similar to other UK limestone or chalk‐based rivers. Time series autoregressive integrated moving average models including explanatory variable regression modelling indicated that river discharge, groundwater level and water temperature were all significant predictors of turbidity levels throughout the year. However, high model residuals demonstrate that the models failed to capture random turbidity events. Five parts of the time series data were used to examine sediment dynamics. Plots of scaled discharge verses turbidity demonstrated that in the upper catchment, after initial suspended sediment generation, sediment quickly became limited. In the lower catchment, hysteresis analysis suggested that sediment dilution occurred, due to increasing base flow. The novel wavelet analysis demonstrated that during winter 'sediment events' identified as groups of turbidity peaks, took ~18 h to pass from the first sensor in the upper catchment to the second sensor (10.3 km downstream of sensor 1) and 24 h to the third sensor (23.3 km from sensor 1). The work demonstrates the potential for using multiple turbidity sensors and time series statistical techniques in developing greater understanding of suspended sediment dynamics and associated poor water quality in ecologically sensitive rivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. Functional data analysis to quantify and investigate controls on and changes in baseflow seasonality.
- Author
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Leeming, Kathryn A., Bloomfield, John P., Coxon, Gemma, and Yanchen Zheng
- Abstract
Baseflow is the delayed component of streamflow from subsurface storage and is critical for sustaining ecological flows and ensuring water resource security. Understanding controls on and changes in baseflow, including the seasonality of baseflow, is therefore an important task. Baseflow seasonality has typically been investigated using pre-defined hydrological seasons. Instead, here, we investigate baseflow seasonality using data-led approaches that identify and cluster average annual baseflow hydrographs that exhibit early-, mid-, or late-seasonality. We apply a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach and examine temporal changes in the timing of seasonal peaks in annual standardised baseflow hydrographs for 671 catchments across Great Britain (GB). We use data from the CAMELS-GB dataset for the period 1976 to 2015 split into two twenty-year time blocks (1976-1995 and 1996-2015). Functional clustering enables groups of catchments with similar distributions between time blocks to be identified. Changes in baseflow seasonality with time are investigated by identifying and characterising catchments that move between functional clusters and time blocks, while analysis of the timing of baseflow peaks provides additional temporal resolution to the early-, mid-, and late-season discretisation generated by the functional clustering. The analysis shows that baseflow seasonality has a spatio-temporally coherent structure across GB and catchment characteristics are a first order control on the form of seasonal baseflow clusters. Changes in climate are inferred to be the first order control on changes in baseflow seasonality between the two time blocks. A change to earlier seasonal baseflow in snowmelt influenced catchments in upland northern GB is associated with systematic warming across the two time blocks, and a move to earlier (later) baseflow seasonality across lowland southern, central and eastern (western, north-western and northern) catchments in GB is associated with earlier (later) seasonality in effective rainfall (defined as precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration). These changes in baseflow seasonality in non-snow-melt influenced catchments are consistent with the proposition that, in temperate environments, climate warming leading to vegetation phenology-mediated changes in evapotranspiration may be modifying the timing of hydrological cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. Generalised Network Autoregressive Processes and the GNAR package
- Author
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Knight, Marina, Leeming, Kathryn, Nason, Guy, and Nunes, Matthew
- Subjects
Methodology (stat.ME) ,FOS: Computer and information sciences ,Statistics - Methodology - Abstract
This article introduces the GNAR package, which fits, predicts, and simulates from a powerful new class of generalised network autoregressive processes. Such processes consist of a multivariate time series along with a real, or inferred, network that provides information about inter-variable relationships. The GNAR model relates values of a time series for a given variable and time to earlier values of the same variable and of neighbouring variables, with inclusion controlled by the network structure. The GNAR package is designed to fit this new model, while working with standard ts objects and the igraph package for ease of use.
- Published
- 2019
7. Generalised Network Autoregressive Processes and the GNAR package
- Author
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Knight, Marina Iuliana, Leeming, Kathryn, Nason, G.P., and Nunes, M.A.
8. Pyrite mega-analysis reveals modes of anoxia through geological time.
- Author
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Emmings JF, Poulton SW, Walsh J, Leeming KA, Ross I, and Peters SE
- Abstract
The redox structure of the water column in anoxic basins through geological time remains poorly resolved despite its importance to biological evolution/extinction and biogeochemical cycling. Here, we provide a temporal record of bottom and pore water redox conditions by analyzing the temporal distribution and chemistry of sedimentary pyrite. We combine machine-reading techniques, applied over a large library of published literature, with statistical analysis of element concentrations in databases of sedimentary pyrite and bulk sedimentary rocks to generate a scaled analysis spanning the majority of Earth's history. This analysis delineates the prevalent anoxic basin states from the Archaean to present day, which are associated with diagnostic combinations of five types of syngenetic pyrite. The underlying driver(s) for the pyrite types are unresolved but plausibly includes the ambient seawater inventory, precipitation kinetics, and the (co)location of organic matter degradation coupled to sulfate reduction, iron (oxyhydr)oxide dissolution, and pyrite precipitation.
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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