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Ixodes ricinus ticks are Scandinavia's main vector for tick‐borne encephalitis virus (TBEV), which infects many people annually. The aims of the present study were (i) to obtain information on the TBEV prevalence in host‐seeking I. ricinus collected within the Øresund‐Kattegat‐Skagerrak (ØKS) region, which lies in southern Norway, southern Sweden and Denmark; (ii) to analyse whether there are potential spatial patterns in the TBEV prevalence; and (iii) to understand the relationship between TBEV prevalence and meteorological factors in southern Scandinavia. Tick nymphs were collected in 2016, in southern Scandinavia, and screened for TBEV, using pools of 10 nymphs, with RT real‐time PCR, and positive samples were confirmed with pyrosequencing. Spatial autocorrelation and cluster analysis was performed with Global Moran's I and SatScan to test for spatial patterns and potential local clusters of the TBEV pool prevalence at each of the 50 sites. A climatic analysis was made to correlate parameters such as minimum, mean and maximum temperature, relative humidity and saturation deficit with TBEV pool prevalence. The climatic data were acquired from the nearest meteorological stations for 2015 and 2016. This study confirms the presence of TBEV in 12 out of 30 locations in Denmark, where six were from Jutland, three from Zealand and two from Bornholm and Falster counties. In total, five out of nine sites were positive from southern Sweden. TBEV prevalence of 0.7%, 0.5% and 0.5%, in nymphs, was found at three sites along the Oslofjord (two sites) and northern Skåne region (one site), indicating a potential concern for public health. We report an overall estimated TBEV prevalence of 0.1% in questing I. ricinus nymphs in southern Scandinavia with a region‐specific prevalence of 0.1% in Denmark, 0.2% in southern Sweden and 0.1% in southeastern Norway. No evidence of a spatial pattern or local clusters was found in the study region. We found a strong correlation between TBEV prevalence in ticks and relative humidity in Sweden and Norway, which might suggest that humidity has a role in maintaining TBEV prevalence in ticks. TBEV is an emerging tick‐borne pathogen in southern Scandinavia, and we recommend further studies to understand the TBEV transmission potential with changing climate in Scandinavia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tick‐borne encephalitis virus (TBEV), a zoonotic flaviviral infection, is endemic in large parts of Norway and Eurasia. Humans are mainly infected with TBEV via bites from infected ticks. In Norway, the main geographical distribution of ticks is along the Norwegian coastline from southeast (~59°N) and up to the southern parts of Nordland County (~65°N). In this study, we collected ticks by flagging along the coast from Østfold County to Nordland County. By whole‐genome sequencing of the mitochondrial genome of Ixodes ricinus, the phylogenetic tree suggests that there is limited phylogeographic structure both in Norway and in Europe. The overall TBEV prevalence is 0.3% for nymphs and 4.3% for adults. The highest estimated TBEV prevalence in adult ticks was detected in Rogaland and Vestfold County, while for nymphs it is highest in Vestfold, Vest‐Agder and Rogaland. The present work is one of the largest studies on distribution and prevalence of TBEV in ticks in Scandinavia, showing that the virus is wider distributed in Norway than previously anticipated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundTick-borne diseases have become increasingly common in recent decades and present a health problem in many parts of Europe. Control and prevention of these diseases require a better understanding of vector distribution.AimOur aim was to create a model able to predict the distribution of Ixodes ricinus nymphs in southern Scandinavia and to assess how this relates to risk of human exposure.MethodsWe measured the presence of I. ricinus tick nymphs at 159 stratified random lowland forest and meadow sites in Denmark, Norway and Sweden by dragging 400 m transects from August to September 2016, representing a total distance of 63.6 km. Using climate and remote sensing environmental data and boosted regression tree modelling, we predicted the overall spatial distribution of I. ricinus nymphs in Scandinavia. To assess the potential public health impact, we combined the predicted tick distribution with human density maps to determine the proportion of people at risk.ResultsOur model predicted the spatial distribution of I. ricinus nymphs with a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 60%. Temperature was one of the main drivers in the model followed by vegetation cover. Nymphs were restricted to only 17.5% of the modelled area but, respectively, 73.5%, 67.1% and 78.8% of the human populations lived within 5 km of these areas in Denmark, Norway and Sweden.ConclusionThe model suggests that increasing temperatures in the future may expand tick distribution geographically in northern Europe, but this may only affect a small additional proportion of the human population.