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Water infiltration into fractures is ubiquitous in crustal rocks. However, little is known about how such a progressive wetting process affects fracture stiffness and seismic wave propagation, which are highly relevant for characterizing fracture systems in situ. We study the acousto‐mechanical behavior of a free‐standing fractured granite subjected to gradual water infiltration with a downward‐moving wetting front over 12 days. We observe significant differences (i.e., by an order of magnitude) in wave amplitudes across the fractured granite compared to an intact granite, with both cases showing a strong correlation between wave amplitudes and wetting front movement. Effects of water infiltration into the fracture and surrounding matrix on seismic attenuation are captured by a numerical model with parameters constrained by experimental data. Back‐calculated fracture stiffness decreases exponentially with the wetting front migration along the fracture. We propose that moisture‐induced matrix expansion around the fracture increases asperity mismatch, leading to reduced fracture stiffness. Plain Language Summary: In the shallow layers of the Earth, hydrological cycles such as snowmelt, fog, dew, and rain have been shown to change the moisture content of crustal rocks, which can alter the elastic properties of natural fractures and affect the propagation of seismic waves. Understanding how seismic waves propagate in the near‐surface environment is crucial for the assessment of earthquake hazards and the characterization of geologic heterogeneities. In this work, we perform well‐controlled laboratory experiments to study the acousto‐mechanical behavior of a single fracture in granitic rock subjected to progressive wetting over 12 days. We report that the fracture stiffness decreases exponentially as the wetting front advances along the fracture. Our research sheds light on an important question in fracture characterization: how elastic waves propagate across a fracture undergoing moisture‐induced expansion. Key Points: A laboratory study establishes a relationship among water imbibition, seismic attenuation, and stiffness evolution in a wetted fractureWave amplitudes across a fracture correlate strongly with the wetting front movement of infiltrated water within the fractureFracture stiffness exponentially decreases with the advance of the wetting front along the fracture [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present and analyze a rockfall catalog from an active landslide complex in Brienz/Brinzauls of the Swiss Alps, collected with a new Doppler radar system. This radar system provides a complete and continuous time series of rockfall events with volumes of 1 m 3 and greater since 2018 and serves as automatic traffic control for an important main road. In the period between January 2018 and October 2022, 6743 events were detected, which is 2 orders of magnitude higher activity than in stable continental cliffs. A few percent of all rockfall events reached the shadow area, which hosts an important road and agricultural area. The Doppler radar data set allows us to investigate the triggering factors quantitatively. We found that the background rockfall activity is controlled by seasonal climatic triggers. In winter, more rockfalls are observed during thawing periods, whereas in summer the rockfall activity increases with hourly rainfall intensity. We also found that, due to the geological setting in an active landslide complex, increased rockfall activity occurs clustered in space and time, triggered by local displacement hotspots. Thus, monitoring spatial and temporal variations of slope displacement velocity is crucial for detailed rockfall hazard assessment in similar geological settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present and analyze a rockfall catalog from an active landslide complex in Brienz/Brinzauls of the Swiss Alps, collected with a new Doppler radar system. This radar system provides a complete and continuous time-series of rockfall events with volumes of 1m3 and bigger since 2018 and serves as automatic traffic control for an important cantonal road. In the period between January 2018 and September 2022, 6743 events were detected, which is two orders of magnitude higher activity than in stable continental cliffs. A few percent of all rockfall events reached the shadow zone, which hosts an important road and agricultural area. The Doppler radar data set allows us to investigate the triggering factors quantitatively. We found that the background rockfall activity is controlled by seasonal climatic triggers. In winter, more rockfalls are observed during thawing periods, whereas in summer the rockfall activity increases with hourly rainfall intensity. We also found that due to the geological setting in an active landslide complex, increased rockfall activity occurs clustered in space and time, triggered by local displacement hotspots. Thus, monitoring spatial and temporal variations of slope displacement velocity is crucial for detailed rockfall hazard assessment in similar geological settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Catastrophic landslides characterized by runaway slope failures remain difficult to predict. Here, we develop a physics‐based framework to prospectively assess slope failure potential. Our method builds upon the physics of extreme events in natural systems: the extremes so‐called "dragon‐kings" (e.g., slope tertiary creeps prior to failure) exhibit statistically different properties than other smaller‐sized events (e.g., slope secondary creeps). We develop statistical tools to detect the emergence of dragon‐kings during landslide evolution, with the secondary‐to‐tertiary creep transition quantitatively captured. We construct a phase diagram characterizing the detectability of dragon‐kings against "black‐swans" and informing on whether the slope evolves toward a catastrophic or slow landslide. We test our method on synthetic and real data sets, demonstrating how it might have been used to forecast three representative historical landslides. Our method can in principle considerably reduce the number of false alarms and identify with high confidence the presence of true hazards of catastrophic landslides. Plain Language Summary: Catastrophic slope failures that pose great threats to life and property remain difficult to predict due to the strong variability of slope behavior. As a result, only a limited number of large rock slope failures have been so far successfully forecasted with associated risks mitigated. Here, we propose a novel predictive framework to prospectively and quantitatively detect slope failure precursors with high confidence. Our research sheds light on one of the most challenging questions in landslide prediction: Would an active landslide slowly move or catastrophically fail in the future? Our method adds a new conceptual framework and operational methodology with a significant potential to support existing early warning systems and hence reduce landslide risks. Key Points: Tertiary creeps of catastrophic landslides accommodate dragon‐kings showing statistically different properties than secondary slope creepsA predictive framework is developed to forecast catastrophic landslides by detecting signatures typical of the emergence of dragon‐kingsA phase diagram characterizes the detectability of dragon‐kings against black‐swans and discriminates catastrophic and slow landslides [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]