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Population density estimation is integral to the effective conservation and management of wildlife. The snow leopard Panthera uncia is categorized as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List, and reliable information on its density is a prerequisite for its conservation and management. Little is known about the status of the snow leopard in the central and eastern Qilian Mountains, China. To address this, we estimated the population density of the snow leopard using a spatially explicit capture–recapture model based on camera trapping in Machang in the central and eastern Qilian Mountains during January–March 2019. We set up 40 camera traps and recorded 84 separate snow leopard captures over 3,024 trap-days. We identified 18 individual snow leopards and estimated their density to be 2.26/100 km2. Our study provides baseline information on the snow leopard and the first population estimate for the species in the central and eastern Qilian Mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) lives in alpine ecosystems in Central Asia, where it could face intensive climate change and is thus a major conservation concern. We compiled a dataset of 406 GPS-located occurrences based on field surveys, literature, and the GBIF database. We used Random Forest to build different species distribution models with a maximum of 27 explanatory variables, including climatic, topographical, and human impact variables, to predict potential distribution for the snow leopard and make climate change projections. We estimated the potential range shifts of the snow leopard under two global climate models for different representative concentration pathways for 2050 and 2070. We found the distribution center of the snow leopard may move northwest by about 200 km and may move upward in elevation by about 100 m by 2070. Unlike previous studies on the range shifts of the snow leopard, we highlighted that upward rather than northward range shifts are the main pathways for the snow leopard in the changing climate, since the landform of their habitat allows an upward shift, whereas mountains and valleys would block northward movement. Conservation of the snow leopard should therefore prioritize protecting its current habitat over making movement corridors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Spatiotemporal interactions between predators and prey are central to maintaining sustainable functioning ecosystems and community stability. For wild ungulates and their predators, livestock grazing is an important anthropogenic disturbance causing population declines and modifying their interactions over time and space. However, it is poorly understood how fine‐scale grazing affects the spatiotemporal responses of predators, prey, and their interactions. Two opposing hypotheses describe a dichotomy of possible effects. The human shield hypothesis states that people can protect prey because predators avoid areas with high human‐induced mortality risk, whereas in the human competitor hypothesis, humans compete for prey and negatively impact predators through reduced prey availability. We used camera‐trapping data from the Gansu Qilianshan National Nature Reserve in Northwest China to measure occupancy, daily activity patterns, and spatiotemporal interactions between snow leopards (Panthera uncia), the dominant predator, and their ungulate prey in areas with contrasting grazing intensities. The results of grazing were consistent with both the human‐shield and human‐competitor hypotheses, affecting spatiotemporal patterns and interactions of predators and prey. For the primary prey species, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), their spatial and temporal patterns were affected by grazing, which led to a reduction in interaction frequencies with snow leopards. For secondary prey, grazing led to reduced interaction frequencies with snow leopards for white‐lipped deer (Przewalskium albirostris) and red deer (Cervus yarkandensis), but increased frequencies for alpine musk deer (Moschus chrysogaster). Our results indicate how both competition among livestock and prey and predator or prey avoidance of grazed areas can impact populations and predator–prey interactions. Our findings are relevant to grazing management and snow leopard conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]