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Nine gridded Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) products were evaluated as part of the European Space Agency (ESA) Satellite Snow Product Intercomparison and Evaluation Exercise (SnowPEx). Three categories of datasets were assessed: (1) those utilizing some form of reanalysis (the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System version 2 – GLDAS-2; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim land surface reanalysis – ERA-Interim/Land and ERA5; the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 1 (MERRA) and version 2 (MERRA-2); the Crocus snow model driven by ERA-Interim meteorology – Crocus); (2) passive microwave remote sensing combined with daily surface snow depth observations (ESA GlobSnow v2.0); and (3) stand-alone passive microwave retrievals (NASA AMSR-E SWE versions 1.0 and 2.0) which do not utilize surface snow observations. Evaluation included validation against independent snow course measurements from Russia, Finland, and Canada and product intercomparison through the calculation of spatial and temporal correlations in SWE anomalies. The stand-alone passive microwave SWE products (AMSR-E v1.0 and v2.0 SWE) exhibit low spatial and temporal correlations to other products and RMSE nearly double the best performing product. Constraining passive microwave retrievals with surface observations (GlobSnow) provides performance comparable to the reanalysis-based products; RMSE over Finland and Russia for all but the AMSR-E products is ∼50 mm or less, with the exception of ERA-Interim/Land over Russia. Using a seven-dataset ensemble that excluded the stand-alone passive microwave products reduced the RMSE by 10 mm (20 %) and increased the correlation from 0.67 to 0.78 compared to any individual product. The overall performance of the best multiproduct combinations is still at the margins of acceptable uncertainty for scientific and operational requirements; only through combined and integrated improvements in remote sensing, modeling, and observations will real progress in SWE product development be achieved.

Accurate estimates of surface mass balance over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) would contribute to understanding the cause of recent changes and would help to better estimate the future contribution of the GrIS to sea-level rise. Given the limitations of in-situ measurements, modeling, and remote sensing, it is critical to explore the opportunity to merge the available data to better characterize the spatial and temporal variation of the GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). This work utilizes a particle batch smoother data assimilation technique that yields SMB estimates that benefit from the snow model Crocus and a 16-day albedo product derived from satellite remote sensing data. Comparison of the results against in-situ SMB measurements shows that the assimilation of the albedo product reduces the root mean square error of the posterior estimates of SMB by 51% and reduces bias by 95%.

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss has been accelerating at a rate of about 20 ± 10 Gt/yr2 since the end of the 1990's, with around 60 % of this mass loss directly attributed to enhanced surface meltwater runoff. However, in the climate and glaciology communities, different approaches exist on how to model the different surface mass balance (SMB) components using: (1) complex physically-based climate models which are computationally expensive; (2) intermediate complexity energy balance models; (3) simple and fast positive degree day models which base their inferences on statistical principles and are computationally highly efficient. Additionally, many of these models compute the SMB components based on different spatial and temporal resolutions, with different forcing fields as well as different ice sheet topographies and extents, making inter-comparison difficult. In the GrIS SMB model intercomparison project (GrSMBMIP) we address these issues by forcing each model with the same data (i.e., the ERA-Interim reanalysis) except for two global models for which this forcing is limited to the oceanic conditions, and at the same time by interpolating all modelled results onto a common ice sheet mask at 1 km horizontal resolution for the common period 1980–2012. The SMB outputs from 13 models are then compared over the GrIS to (1) SMB estimates using a combination of gravimetric remote sensing data from GRACE and measured ice discharge, (2) ice cores, snow pits, in-situ SMB observations, and (3) remotely sensed bare ice extent from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Our results reveal that the mean GrIS SMB of all 13 models has been positive between 1980 and 2012 with an average of 340 ± Gt/yr, but has decreased at an average rate of −7.3 Gt/yr2 (with a significance of 96 %), mainly driven by an increase of 8.0 Gt/yr2 (with a significance of 98 %) in meltwater runoff. Spatially, the largest spread among models can be found around the margins of the ice sheet, highlighting the need for accurate representation of the GrIS ablation zone extent and processes driving the surface melt. In addition, a higher density of in-situ SMB observations is required, especially in the south-east accumulation zone, where the model spread can reach 2 mWE/yr due to large discrepancies in modelled snowfall accumulation. Overall, polar regional climate models (RCMs) perform the best compared to observations, in particular for simulating precipitation patterns. However, other simpler and faster models have biases of same order than RCMs with observations and remain then useful tools for long-term simulations. Finally, it is interesting to note that the ensemble mean of the 13 models produces the best estimate of the present day SMB relative to observations, suggesting that biases are not systematic among models.

Seven gridded northern hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) products were evaluated as part of the European Space Agency (ESA) Satellite Snow Product Inter-comparison and Evaluation Exercise (SnowPEx). Three categories of datasets were assessed: (1) those utilizing some form of reanalysis (the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System version 2 – GLDAS; the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts interim land surface reanalysis – ERA-land; the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications – MERRA; the Crocus snow model driven by ERA-Interim meteorology – Crocus); (2) passive microwave remote sensing combined with daily surface snow depth observations (ESA GlobSnow v2.0); and (3) standalone passive microwave retrievals (NASA AMSR-E historical and operational algorithms) which do not utilize surface snow observations. Evaluation included comparisons against independent surface observations from Russia, Finland, and Canada, and calculation of spatial and temporal correlations in SWE anomalies. The standalone passive microwave SWE products (AMSR-E historical and operational SWE algorithms) exhibit low spatial and temporal correlations to other products, and RMSE nearly double the best performing product. Constraining passive microwave retrievals with surface observations (GlobSnow) provides comparable performance to the reanalysis-based products; RMSEs over Finland and Russia for all but the AMSR-E products is ~50 mm or less. Using a four-dataset ensemble that excluded the standalone passive microwave products reduced the RMSE by 10 mm (20%) and increased the correlation by 0.1; ensembles that contain Crocus and/or MERRA perform better than those that do not. The observed RMSE of the best performing datasets is still at the margins of acceptable uncertainty for scientific and operational requirements; only through combined and integrated improvements in remote sensing, modeling, and observations will real progress in SWE product development be achieved.

Understanding the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies on the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is fundamental for improving estimates of its current and future contributions to sea level rise. Here, we show, using a combination of remote sensing observations, regional climate model outputs, reanalysis data and artificial neural networks, that unprecedented atmospheric conditions (1948–2019) occurring in the summer of 2019 over Greenland promoted new records or close-to-record values of SMB, runoff and snowfall. Specifically, runoff in 2019 ranked second within the 1948–2019 period (after 2012) and first in terms of surface mass balance negative anomaly for the hydrological year September 1, 2018–August 31, 2019. Summer of 2019 was characterized by an exceptional persistence of anticyclonic conditions that, in conjunction with low albedo associated with reduced snowfall in summer, enhanced the melt-albedo feedback by promoting the absorption of solar radiation and favored advection of warm, moist air along the western portion of the ice sheet towards the North, where the surface melt has been the highest since 1948. The analysis of the frequency of daily 500 hPa geopotential heights obtained from artificial neural networks shows that the total number of days with the most frequent atmospheric pattern that characterized the summer of 2019 was 5 standard deviations above the 1981–2010 mean, confirming the exceptional nature of the 2019 season over Greenland.

Albedo reduction due to light-absorbing impurities can substantially enhance ice sheet surface melt by increasing surface absorption of solar energy. Ice algae have been suggested to play a critical role in darkening the ablation zone in southwest Greenland. It was very recently found that the Sentinel-3 Ocean and Colour Instrument (OLCI) band ratio R709 nm/R673 nm can characterize the spatial patterns of ice algal blooms. However, Sentinel-3 was launched in 2016 and current data are only available over three melting seasons. Here, we demonstrate the capability of the MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) for mapping ice algae from space and extend the quantification of ice algal blooms over southwest Greenland back to the period 2004–2011. Several band ratio indices (MERIS chlorophyll indices and impurity index) were computed and compared with each other and against field measurements. The results indicate that the MERIS two-band ratio index (2BDA) R709 nm/R665 nm is very effective in capturing the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of ice algal growth on bare ice in July and August. We analyzed the interannual (2004–2011) and summer (July–August) trends of algal abundance and found significant increasing trends of ice algae close to the Jakobshavn Isbrae Glacier and along the middle dark zone between the altitudes of 1200 m and 1400 m. Using broadband albedo data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) we quantified the impact of ice algal growth on bare ice albedo, finding a 0.02∼0.04 reduction rate in albedo for each algal population doubling. Our analysis indicates the strong potential for the satellite algal index to be used to reduce bare ice albedo biases in regional climate model simulations.

Greenland ice sheet mass loss has accelerated in the past decade responding to combined glacier discharge and surface melt water runoff increases. During summer, absorbed solar energy, modulated at the surface primarily by albedo, is the dominant factor governing surface melt variability in the ablation area. Using satellite-derived surface albedo with calibrated regional climate modeled surface air temperature and surface downward solar irradiance, we determine the spatial dependence and quantitative impact of the ice sheet albedo feedback over 12 summer periods beginning in 2000. We find that, while albedo feedback defined by the change in net solar shortwave flux and temperature over time is positive over 97% of the ice sheet, when defined using paired annual anomalies, a second-order negative feedback is evident over 63% of the accumulation area. This negative feedback damps the accumulation area response to warming due to a positive correlation between snowfall and surface air temperature anomalies. Positive anomaly-gauged feedback concentrated in the ablation area accounts for more than half of the overall increase in melting when satellite-derived melt duration is used to define the timing when net shortwave flux is sunk into melting. Abnormally strong anticyclonic circulation, associated with a persistent summer North Atlantic Oscillation extreme since 2007, enabled three amplifying mechanisms to maximize the albedo feedback: (1) increased warm (south) air advection along the western ice sheet increased surface sensible heating that in turn enhanced snow grain metamorphic rates, further reducing albedo; (2) increased surface downward shortwave flux, leading to more surface heating and further albedo reduction; and (3) reduced snowfall rates sustained low albedo, maximizing surface solar heating, progressively lowering albedo over multiple years. The summer net infrared and solar radiation for the high elevation accumulation area approached positive values during this period. Thus, it is reasonable to expect 100% melt area over the ice sheet within another similar decade of warming.

Significance Meltwater runoff is an important hydrological process operating on the Greenland ice sheet surface that is rarely studied directly. By combining satellite and drone remote sensing with continuous field measurements of discharge in a large supraglacial river, we obtained 72 h of runoff observations suitable for comparison with climate model predictions. The field observations quantify how a large, fluvial supraglacial catchment attenuates the magnitude and timing of runoff delivered to its terminal moulin and hence the bed. The data are used to calibrate classical fluvial hydrology equations to improve meltwater runoff models and to demonstrate that broad-scale surface water drainage patterns that form on the ice surface powerfully alter the timing, magnitude, and locations of meltwater penetrating into the ice sheet., Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km2 moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland’s midelevation (1,207–1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems.

Melting is mapped over Antarctica at a high spatial resolution using a novel melt detection algorithm based on wavelets and multiscale analysis. The method is applied to Ku-band (13.4 GHz) normalized backscattering measured by SeaWinds onboard the satellite QuikSCAT and spatially enhanced on a 5 km grid over the operational life of the sensor (1999–2009). Wavelet-based estimates of melt spatial extent and duration are compared with those obtained by means of threshold-based detection methods, where melting is detected when the measured backscattering is 3 dB below the preceding winter mean value. Results from both methods are assessed by means of automatic weather station (AWS) air surface temperature records. The yearly melting index, the product of melted area and melting duration, found using a fixed threshold and wavelet-based melt algorithm are found to have a relative difference within 7% for all years. Most of the difference between melting records determined from QuikSCAT is related to short-duration backscatter changes identified as melting using the threshold methodology but not the wavelet-based method. The ability to classify melting based on relative persistence is a critical aspect of the wavelet-based algorithm. Compared with AWS air-temperature records, both methods show a relative agreement to within 10% based on estimated melt conditions, although the fixed threshold generally finds a greater agreement with AWS. Melting maps obtained with the wavelet-based approach are also compared with those obtained from spaceborne brightness temperatures recorded by the Special Sensor Microwave/Image (SSM/I). With respect to passive microwave records, we find a higher degree of agreement (9% relative difference) for the melting index using the wavelet-based approach than threshold-based methods (11% relative difference).

The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been the focus of climate studies due to its considerable impact on sea level rise. Accurate estimates of surface mass fluxes would contribute to understanding the cause of its recent changes and would help to better estimate the past, current and future contribution of the GrIS to sea level rise. Though the estimates of the GrIS surface mass fluxes have improved significantly over the last decade, there is still considerable disparity between the results from different methodologies (e.g., Rae et al., 2012; Vernon et al., 2013). The data assimilation approach can merge information from different methodologies in a consistent way to improve the GrIS surface mass fluxes. In this study, an ensemble batch smoother data assimilation approach was developed to assess the feasibility of generating a reanalysis estimate of the GrIS surface mass fluxes via integrating remotely sensed ice surface temperature measurements with a regional climate model (a priori) estimate. The performance of the proposed methodology for generating an improved posterior estimate was investigated within an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework using synthetically generated ice surface temperature measurements. The results showed that assimilation of ice surface temperature time series were able to overcome uncertainties in near-surface meteorological forcing variables that drive the GrIS surface processes. Our findings show that the proposed methodology is able to generate posterior reanalysis estimates of the surface mass fluxes that are in good agreement with the synthetic true estimates. The results also showed that the proposed data assimilation framework improves the root-mean-square error of the posterior estimates of runoff, sublimation/evaporation, surface condensation, and surface mass loss fluxes by 61, 64, 76, and 62 %, respectively, over the nominal a priori climate model estimates.

Limited observational data sets and incomplete surface energy balance models constrain understanding of the driving processes for Greenland's ice sheet.