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1. Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

Author

Nikolaos Christidis, Tim Cowan, Bo Christiansen, Simon F. B. Tett, Rene Orth, Nils Hempelmann, Andrew Ciavarella, Robert Vautard, Jonathan Eden, Mathias Hauser, Sabine Radanovics, Pascal Yiou, Laura Wilcox, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Ioana Colfescu, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter A. Stott, Cathy Nangini, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Omar Bellprat, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Katharina Klehmet, and Fraser C. Lott

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmospheric circulation, Climate change, Storm, Weather and climate, Atmospheric model, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Sea surface temperature, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Generalized extreme value distribution, Environmental science, Precipitation, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

A detailed analysis is carried out to assess the HadGEM3-A global atmospheric model skill in simulating extreme temperatures, precipitation and storm surges in Europe in the view of their attribution to human influence. The analysis is performed based on an ensemble of 15 atmospheric simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature of the 54 year period 1960–2013. These simulations, together with dual simulations without human influence in the forcing, are intended to be used in weather and climate event attribution. The analysis investigates the main processes leading to extreme events, including atmospheric circulation patterns, their links with temperature extremes, land–atmosphere and troposphere-stratosphere interactions. It also compares observed and simulated variability, trends and generalized extreme value theory parameters for temperature and precipitation. One of the most striking findings is the ability of the model to capture North-Atlantic atmospheric weather regimes as obtained from a cluster analysis of sea level pressure fields. The model also reproduces the main observed weather patterns responsible for temperature and precipitation extreme events. However, biases are found in many physical processes. Slightly excessive drying may be the cause of an overestimated summer interannual variability and too intense heat waves, especially in central/northern Europe. However, this does not seem to hinder proper simulation of summer temperature trends. Cold extremes appear well simulated, as well as the underlying blocking frequency and stratosphere-troposphere interactions. Extreme precipitation amounts are overestimated and too variable. The atmospheric conditions leading to storm surges were also examined in the Baltics region. There, simulated weather conditions appear not to be leading to strong enough storm surges, but winds were found in very good agreement with reanalyses. The performance in reproducing atmospheric weather patterns indicates that biases mainly originate from local and regional physical processes. This makes local bias adjustment meaningful for climate change attribution.

Published
2019
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2. Web processing service for climate impact and extreme weather event analyses. Flyingpigeon (Version 1.0)

Author

Ben Koziol, Sabine Radanovics, Carsten Ehbrecht, Stephan Kindermann, Jörg Hoffmann, Cathy Nangini, Nils Hempelmann, M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Pascal Yiou, Robert Vautard, Wolfgang Falk, Patrick Brockmann, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Bayerische Landesanstalt für Wald und Forstwirtschaft (LWF), Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Julius Kühn-Institut Bundesforschungsinstitut für Kulturpflanzen, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), EUCLEIA, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
Geospatial analysis, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, extreme weather events, Computer science, birdhouse, 0208 environmental biotechnology, 02 engineering and technology, computer.software_genre, 01 natural sciences, Extreme weather, Data visualization, Data file, [INFO]Computer Science [cs], climate impact, Computers in Earth Sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Data processing, Database, business.industry, Event (computing), OGC, 020801 environmental engineering, 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Climate model, Web Processing Service, business, computer, Information Systems
Abstract

International audience; Analyses of extreme weather events and their impacts often requires big data processing of ensembles of climate model simulations. Researchers generally proceed by downloading the data from the providers and processing the data files " at home " with their own analysis processes. However, the growing amount of available climate model and observation data makes this procedure quite awkward. In addition, data processing knowledge is kept local, instead of being consolidated into a common resource of reusable code. These drawbacks can be mitigated by using a web processing service (WPS). A WPS hosts services such as data analysis processes that are accessible over the web, and can be installed close to the data archives. We developed a WPS named 'flyingpigeon' that communicates over an HTTP network protocol based on standards defined by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) [23], to be used by climatologists and impact modelers as a tool for analyzing large datasets remotely. Here, we present the current processes we developed in flyingpigeon relating to commonly-used processes (preprocessing steps, spatial subsets at continent, country or region level, and climate indices) as well as methods for specific climate data analysis (weather regimes, analogues of circulation, segetal flora distribution, and species distribution models). We also developed a novel, browser-based interactive data visualization for circulation analogues , illustrating the flexibility of WPS in designing custom outputs. Bringing the software to the data instead of transferring the data to the code is becoming increasingly necessary, especially with the upcoming massive climate datasets.

Published
2018
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3. Was the Cold European Winter of 2009/10 Modified by Anthropogenic Climate Change? An Attribution Study

Author

Laura Wilcox, Nils Hempelmann, Rene Orth, Robert Vautard, Katharina Klehmet, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Cathy Nangini, Jonathan Eden, Carmen Alvarez-Castro, Nikolaos Christidis, Pascal Yiou, Fraser C. Lott, Mathias Hauser, Tim Cowan, Ioana Colfescu, Andrew Ciavarella, Bo Christiansen, Simon F. B. Tett, Peter A. Stott, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], University of Leeds, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, ARCTIC SEA-ICE, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, CIRCULATION, Climate change, TIME-SERIES, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Surrogate data, REANALYSIS, EXTREME EVENTS, MIDLATITUDE WEATHER, [ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Precipitation, TEMPERATURE, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global warming, NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION, 13. Climate action, Skewness, North Atlantic oscillation, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, PRECIPITATION, Environmental science, Climate model, SURROGATE DATA, Quantile
Abstract

International audience; An attribution study has been performed to investigate the degree to which the unusually cold European winter of 2009/10 was modified by anthropogenic climate change. Two different methods have been included for the attribution: one based on large HadGEM3-A ensembles and one based on a statistical surrogate method. Both methods are evaluated by comparing simulated winter temperature means, trends, standard deviations, skewness, return periods, and 5% quantiles with observations. While the surrogate method performs well, HadGEM3-A in general underestimates the trend in winter by a factor of ⅔. It has a mean cold bias dominated by the mountainous regions and also underestimates the cold 5% quantile in many regions of Europe. Both methods show that the probability of experiencing a winter as cold as 2009/10 has been reduced by approximately a factor of 2 because of anthropogenic changes. The method based on HadGEM3-A ensembles gives somewhat larger changes than the surrogate method because of differences in the definition of the unperturbed climate. The results are based on two diagnostics: the coldest day in winter and the largest continuous area with temperatures colder than twice the local standard deviation. The results are not sensitive to the choice of bias correction except in the mountainous regions. Previous results regarding the behavior of the measures of the changed probability have been extended. The counterintuitive behavior for heavy-tailed distributions is found to hold for a range of measures and for events that become more rare in a changed climate

Published
2018
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4. FPGA-Based Upgrade of the Read-Out Electronics for the Low Energy Polarimeter at COSY/Jülich

Author

Nils Hempelmann

Subjects
Elastic scattering, Physics, business.industry, Cyclotron, Polarimetry, Polarimeter, law.invention, Nuclear physics, Time of flight, Optics, Upgrade, Beamline, law, Physics::Accelerator Physics, business, Nuclear Experiment, Beam (structure)
Abstract

The low energy polarimeter (LEP [1]) is a polarimeter in the injection beam line of the Cooler Synchrotron (COSY [2]). COSY is a facility for cooled polarized beams at the Forschungszentrum in Julich. The beam polarization is measured using scattering off carbon and polyethylene (CH2) targets. Up to now only elastic scattering off the carbon atoms is used for polarimetry. The outgoing particles are detected using twelve plastic scintillators installed in groups of three to the left, to the right, above, and below the beam. LEP is the routine tool for beam set-up, but limited in performance. The current read-out electronics consists of analog NIM modules. It can either be used to measure pulse height spectra at a data rate limited to about 50 kHz or to merely count the pulses within an adjustable range in amplitude, which allows for a faster measurement. A further motivation for the upgrade is the missing ability to determine the tensor polarization Pzz. A new system using analog pulse sampling and an FPGA chip for signal processing was installed and tested. The ejectile particles were identified by relative time of flight measurement using a signal from the RF amplifier of the cyclotron used for acceleration as a reference. The new system is able to measure the time at which a particle arrives to an accuracy in the order of 50 ps. The presentation includes a review of available systems and the report about first measurements in May 2015.

Published
2015

5. EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research

Author

Sven Kotlarski, Michel Déqué, Andreas Gobiet, Jean-François Soussana, Augustin Colette, Susanne Pfeifer, Grigory Nikulin, Laurent Menut, Klaus Keuler, Robert Vautard, Diana Rechid, Christine Radermacher, Mark Rounsevell, Arne Kriegsmann, Laurens M. Bouwer, Samuel Somot, Juliane Petersen, Andreas Haensler, Kai Radtke, Erik van Meijgaard, Bastian Eggert, Nico Kröner, Goran Georgievski, Swantje Preuschmann, Alain Braun, Bjorn Weber, Christopher Moseley, Pascal Yiou, Antoinette Alias, Claas Teichmann, Elena Georgopoulou, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Eric Martin, Daniela Jacob, Colins Jones, Sari Kovats, Nils Hempelmann, Patrick Samuelsson, Riccardo Valentini, Climate Service Center, Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije University, Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Brandenburg University of Technology [Cottbus – Senftenberg] (BTU), Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics and Meteorology [Graz] (IGAM), Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, School of GeoSciences, Institute of Geography & the Lived Environment, University of Edinburgh, Unité Mixte de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial - UMR (UREP), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS), Department of Forest Science and Environment, University of Tuscia, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Vrije Universiteit Brussel [Bruxelles] (VUB), Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), UR 0874 Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial (UREP)-Ecologie des Forêts, Prairies et milieux Aquatiques (EFPA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES [505539], 7th Framework EU-project IMPACT2C [FP7-ENV.2011.1.1.6-1], 7th Framework EU-project ECLISE [FP7-ENV.2010.1.1.4-1], Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial (UREP), Università degli studi della Tuscia [Viterbo], Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Karl-Franzens-Universität [Graz, Autriche], Spatial analysis & Decision Support, and Amsterdam Global Change Institute

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0207 environmental engineering, Climate change, High resolution, 02 engineering and technology, REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, HEAVY PRECIPITATION, Regional climate change, Impact indices, EURO-CORDEX, Heat wave, Heavy precipitation, Dry spells, ddc:550, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Precipitation, Mean radiant temperature, HEAT WAVE, 020701 environmental engineering, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global and Planetary Change, Impact assessment, DRY SPELLS, Data set, Earth sciences, 13. Climate action, IMPACT INDICES, Climatology, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, Climate model, Downscaling
Abstract

A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities., Regional Environmental Change, 14 (2), ISSN:1436-3798, ISSN:1436-378X

Published
2014
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6. Erratum to: EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research

Author

Laurent Menut, Patrick Samuelsson, Diana Rechid, Andreas Gobiet, Samuel Somot, Nils Hempelmann, Christopher Moseley, Bastian Eggert, Augustin Colette, Susanne Pfeifer, Michel Déqué, Kai Radtke, Bjorn Weber, Antoinette Alias, Goran Georgievski, Claas Teichmann, Laurens M. Bouwer, Jean-François Soussana, Alain Braun, Robert Vautard, Nico Kröner, Pascal Yiou, Erik van Meijgaard, Christine Radermacher, Grigory Nikulin, Andreas Haensler, Juliane Petersen, Elena Georgopoulou, Swantje Preuschmann, Sari Kovats, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Klaus Keuler, Mark Rounsevell, Eric Martin, Daniela Jacob, Colin Jones, Arne Kriegsmann, Sven Kotlarski, Riccardo Valentini, Climate Service Center, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Brussel [Bruxelles] (VUB), Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Brandenburg University of Technology, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens (NOA), Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics and Meteorology [Graz] (IGAM), Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), Karl-Franzens-Universität [Graz, Autriche], Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), School of Geosciences [Edinburgh], University of Edinburgh, Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Department of Forest Science and Environment, University of Tuscia, Euro–Mediterranean Center for Climate Change, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Brandenburgische Technische Universität = Brandenburg Technical University (BTU), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial (UREP), Università degli studi della Tuscia [Viterbo], Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Vrije University, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), and Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
Global and Planetary Change, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, media_common.quotation_subject, High resolution, Art, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, Nature Conservation, Humanities, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, media_common
Abstract

Daniela Jacob • Juliane Petersen • Bastian Eggert • Antoinette Alias • Ole Bossing Christensen • Laurens M. Bouwer • Alain Braun • Augustin Colette • Michel Deque • Goran Georgievski • Elena Georgopoulou • Andreas Gobiet • Laurent Menut • Grigory Nikulin • Andreas Haensler • Nils Hempelmann • Colin Jones • Klaus Keuler • Sari Kovats • Nico Kroner • Sven Kotlarski • Arne Kriegsmann • Eric Martin • Erik van Meijgaard • Christopher Moseley • Susanne Pfeifer • Swantje Preuschmann • Christine Radermacher • Kai Radtke • Diana Rechid • Mark Rounsevell • Patrick Samuelsson • Samuel Somot • Jean-Francois Soussana • Claas Teichmann • Riccardo Valentini • Robert Vautard • Bjorn Weber • Pascal Yiou

Published
2014
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7. Species Favourability Shift in Europe due to Climate Change: A Case Study for Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. Based on an Ensemble of Climate Models

Author

Wolfgang Falk and Nils Hempelmann

Subjects
biology, Fagus sylvatica, Climatology, Species distribution, Environmental science, Growing season, Climate change, Picea abies, Climate model, biology.organism_classification, Spatial distribution, Beech
Abstract

Climate is the main environmental driver determining the spatial distribution of most tree species at the continental scale. We investigated the distribution change of European beech and Norway spruce due to climate change. We applied a species distribution model (SDM), driven by an ensemble of 21 regional climate models in order to study the shift of the favourability distribution of these species. SDMs were parameterized for 1971–2000, as well as 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 using the SRES scenario A1B and three physiological meaningful climate variables. Growing degree sum and precipitation sum were calculated for the growing season on a basis of daily data. Results show a general north-eastern and altitudinal shift in climatological favourability for both species, although the shift is more marked for spruce. The gain of new favourable sites in the north or in the Alps is stronger for beech compared to spruce. Uncertainty is expressed as the variance of the averaged maps and with a density function. Uncertainty in species distribution increases over time. This study demonstrates the importance of data ensembles and shows how to deal with different outcomes in order to improve impact studies by showing uncertainty of the resulting maps.

Published
2013
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