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The 2014 Northeast Pacific hurricane season was highly active, with above-average intensity and frequency events, and a rare landfalling Hawaiian hurricane. We show that the anomalous northern extent of sea surface temperatures and anomalous vertical extent of upper ocean heat content above 26 &deg, C throughout the Northeast and Central Pacific Ocean may have influenced three long-lived tropical cyclones in July and August. Using a variety of satellite-observed and -derived products, we assess genesis conditions, along-track intensity, and basin-wide anomalous upper ocean heat content during Hurricanes Genevieve, Iselle, and Julio. The anomalously northern surface position of the 26 &deg, C isotherm beyond 30&deg, N to the north and east of the Hawaiian Islands in 2014 created very high sea surface temperatures throughout much of the Central Pacific. Analysis of basin-wide mean conditions confirm higher-than-average storm activity during strong positive oceanic thermal anomalies. Positive anomalies of 15&ndash, 50 kJ cm&minus, 2 in the along-track upper ocean heat content for these three storms were observed during the intensification phase prior to peak intensity, advocating for greater understanding of the ocean thermal profile during tropical cyclone genesis and development.

Hurricane Patricia in 2015 was the strongest Pacific hurricane to make landfall in Mexico. Although Patricia fortuitously spared major cities, it reminded us of the threat tropical cyclones (TCs) pose in the eastern North Pacific (ENP) and the importance of improving our understanding and prediction of ENP TCs. Patricia’s intensity and the active 2015 ENP hurricane season have been partially attributed to the strong El Niño in 2015, however there is still a lack of fundamental understanding of the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENP TCs. Here, we demonstrate that ENSO drives intrabasin variability of ENP TCs, with enhanced (reduced) TC frequency in the western portion of the ENP during El Niño (La Niña), but reduced (enhanced) TC frequency in the eastern nearshore area, where landfalling TCs preferentially form. This intrabasin difference is primarily driven by the Central American Gap Winds (CAGW), which intensify (weaken) during El Niño (La Niña), producing low-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) relative vorticity anomalies and thus an unfavorable (favorable) environment for TC genesis. These findings shed new light on the dynamics linking ENP TC activity to ENSO, and highlight the importance of improving CAGW representation in models to make skillful seasonal forecasts of ENP TCs.

Recent improvements in the theoretical understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclones (TCs) and their large-scale environments have resulted in significant improvements in the skill for forecasting TC activity at daily and seasonal time-scales. However, future changes in TC activity under a warmer climate remain uncertain, particularly in terms of TC genesis locations and subsequent pathways. Applying a track-pattern-based statistical model to 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs for the historical period and the future period corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenarios, this study shows that in future climate conditions, TC passage frequency will decrease over the North Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, but will increase over the western North Pacific, especially that hits Korea and Japan. Unlike previous studies based on fine-resolution models, an ensemble mean of CMIP5 models projects an increase in TC activity in the western North Pacific, which is owing to enhanced subtropical deep convection and favorable dynamic conditions therein in conjunction with the expansion of the tropics and vice versa for the North Atlantic. Our results suggest that North America will experience less TC landfalls, while northeast Asia will experience more TCs than in the present-day climate.

The Western North Pacific (WNP) is the most favorable area in the world for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). As the most intense weather system, TCs play an important role in the change of ocean environment in the WNP. Based on many investigations published in the literature, we obtained a collective and systematic understanding of the influence of TCs on ocean components in the WNP, including sea temperature, ocean currents, mesoscale eddies, storm surges, phytoplankton (indicated by chlorophyll a). Some ocean responses to TCs are unique in the WNP because of the existence of the Kuroshio and special geographical configurations such as the South China Sea.

Most Atlantic hurricanes form in the Main Development Region between 9°N to 20°N along the northern edge of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Previous research has suggested that meridional shifts in the ITCZ position on geologic timescales can modulate hurricane activity, but continuous and long-term storm records are needed from multiple sites to assess this hypothesis. Here we present a 3000 year record of intense hurricane strikes in the northern Bahamas (Abaco Island) based on overwash deposits in a coastal sinkhole, which indicates that the ITCZ has likely helped modulate intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin on millennial to centennial-scales. The new reconstruction closely matches a previous reconstruction from Puerto Rico, and documents a period of elevated intense hurricane activity on the western North Atlantic margin from 2500 to 1000 years ago when paleo precipitation proxies suggest that the ITCZ occupied a more northern position. Considering that anthropogenic warming is predicted to be focused in the northern hemisphere in the coming century, these results provide a prehistoric analog that an attendant northern ITCZ shift in the future may again return the western North Atlantic margin to an active hurricane interval.

Historical documents and newspapers from Mexican Pacific states (north of 14° N) were reviewed to determine the incidence of landfalling tropical cyclones from 1850 to 1949, prior to the start of the United States National Hurricane Center database. The reviewed documents are only found in Mexican repositories at national, state and municipal level and the systematic search embarked upon in this study yielded valuable information that cannot be found elsewhere. Atime series of landfall was reconstructed back to 1850, indicating active and quiet periods. An average of 1.8 ± 1.6 landfalls per year is determined from the time series for 1850-2010. When the series is limited to 1880-2010, eliminating the first 30 years that may have some undercounting, the average increases to 2.1 ± 1.6 cases per year. Spectral and wavelet analysis of the 161 years of landfalling tropical cyclones indicates that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) modulates the activity. The influence of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the landfall frequency may be present throughout the reconstruction period but both oscillations have lower correlations compared to that from the PDO.

The eastern tropical Pacific plays a key role in the tropical atmospheric circulation and in the global carbon cycle, and assessing the sensitivity of this region to global climate changes is a major challenge facing climatologists. Provided here is a synthesis of proxy records of the mean climate of the mid-Holocene (5-8 ka) along the south eastern Pacific margin and four regions of South America. These regions were selected for the strength and stability of ENSO teleconnections, and located outside the direct influence of the intertropical convergence zone or the southern westerlies in order to avoid the overprinting signal of their insolation-related variations and focus on the relationship between the eastern tropical Pacific and South America. This study is based on a review of published multiproxy data as well as new isotopic data from the Peruvian and Chilean coast. The available evidence indicates that sea-surface temperatures were similar to 1-4 degrees C cooler from the Galapagos to the southern Peruvian coast as a result of increased coastal upwelling forced by changes in longshore windfields. The mean La Nina-like conditions in the eastern South Pacific were associated to aridity in southern Brazil and along the whole South American Pacific coast from central Chile to the Galapagos, and to wetter conditions on the western central Andes. This regional synthesis provides a coherent picture of the South American mean climate that is very similar to the modern precipitation pattern observed during La Nina conditions, suggesting that atmospheric teleconnections linking the South Eastern Pacific to these continental areas were similar in the middle Holocene.

A hurricane is a large rotating storm with a central area of very low pressure and strong winds greater than 74 mph (118 km/h).1 The hurricane is graded 1–5 in relation to the strength of the winds, which can be greater than 155 mph (249 km/h, category 5).2 Hurricanes arise from warm, moist air from tropical oceans, and with global warming, hurricanes are occurring more frequently and with greater severity.3 Tropical storms originating in the Atlantic Ocean or the Eastern North Pacific Ocean (ie, the Northern hemisphere) are termed hurricanes, whereas those that originate from the Pacific Ocean are known as typhoons and those from the Indian Ocean as cyclones.1 Hurricanes are a major problem for countries in the Caribbean and Central and Latin America. The word ‘hurricane’ is thought to be derived from either the Carib god ‘Hurican’ or the Mayan god ‘Hurakan,’ who caused a great storm and flood by blowing his breath across the ocean.4 It has been estimated that almost two million people worldwide have died from tropical storms (hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones) in the last two centuries.1 In the 20th century alone, there have been 75 000 deaths from hurricanes in North America and the Caribbean, including almost 10 000 deaths from hurricane Mitch, which affected Central America in 1998.5 The impact of hurricanes on health can be divided into immediate and during the recovery phase. Drowning during the hurricane used to account for the majority of the deaths. The use of warning systems combined with evacuation has, however, dramatically reduced drowning deaths.1 3 During hurricane Katrina, however, two-thirds of the fatalities were thought to be due to the direct physical effects of the flood, and the majority of the deaths were thought to be due to …

[1] The anomalously strong hurricane activity in the Atlantic sector during the recent years led to a controversy about the impact of global warming on hurricane activity in the Atlantic sector. Here we show that the temperature difference between the tropical North Atlantic and the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (Indo-Pacific) is a key parameter in controlling the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, an important quantity for hurricane activity. The stronger warming of the tropical North Atlantic relative to that of the Indo-Pacific during the most recent years drove reduced vertical wind shear over the Atlantic and is thus responsible for the strong hurricane activity observed. In 2006, however, the temperature difference between the tropical North Atlantic and the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans is much reduced, which explains the relatively weak hurricane season.

The interannual variability of near-coastal eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones is described using a data set of cyclone tracks constructed from U.S. and Mexican oceanic and atmospheric reports for the period 1951-2006. Near-coastal cyclone counts are enumerated monthly, allowing us to distinguish interannual variability during different phases of the May-November tropical cyclone season. In these data more tropical cyclones affect the Pacific coast in May-July, the early months of the tropical cyclone season, during La Niña years, when equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are anomalously cool, than during El Niño years. The difference in early season cyclone counts between La Niña and El Niño years was particularly pronounced during the mid-twentieth century epoch when cool equatorial temperatures were enhanced as described by an index of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Composite maps from years with high and low near-coastal cyclone counts show that the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are consistent with preferential steering of tropical cyclones northeastward toward the west coast of Mexico.