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An abstract of the research paper "Fetal growth and growth velocity in gastroschisis," by R. Rana and colleagues is presented.

Objective: To identify highest-risk subgroups for COVID-19 and Long COVID(LC), particularly in contexts of influenza and cardiovascular disease(CVD)., Methods: Using national, linked electronic health records for England (NHS England Secure Data Environment via CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium), we studied individuals (of all ages) with COVID-19 and LC (2020-2023). We compared all-cause hospitalization and mortality by prior CVD, high CV risk, vaccination status (COVID-19/influenza), and CVD drugs, investigating impact of vaccination and CVD prevention using population preventable fractions., Results: Hospitalization and mortality were 15.3% and 2.0% among 17,373,850 individuals with COVID-19 (LC rate 1.3%), and 16.8% and 1.4% among 301,115 with LC. Adjusted risk of mortality and hospitalization were reduced with COVID-19 vaccination ≥ 2 doses(COVID-19:HR 0.36 and 0.69; LC:0.44 and 0.90). With influenza vaccination, mortality was reduced, but not hospitalization (COVID-19:0.86 and 1.01, and LC:0.72 and 1.05). Mortality and hospitalization were reduced by CVD prevention in those with CVD, e.g., anticoagulants- COVID:19:0.69 and 0.92; LC:0.59 and 0.88; lipid lowering- COVID-19:0.69 and 0.86; LC:0.68 and 0.90. COVID-19 vaccination averted 245044 of 321383 and 7586 of 8738 preventable deaths after COVID-19 and LC, respectively., Interpretation: Prior CVD and high CV risk are associated with increased hospitalization and mortality in COVID-19 and LC. Targeted COVID-19 vaccination and CVD prevention are priority interventions., Funding: NIHR. HDR UK., Competing Interests: Declarations of competing interest KK is chair of the ethnicity subgroup of the UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) and is a member of SAGE. KK (Chair) and AB are members of the LC Research Group that reports to the Chief Medical Officer for England. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: None of the studies of type 2 diabetes (T2D) subtyping to date have used linked population-level data for incident and prevalent T2D, incorporating a diverse set of variables, explainable methods for cluster characterization, or adhered to an established framework. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML)-informed subtypes for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) using nationally representative data., Research Design and Methods: In population-based electronic health records (2006-2020; Clinical Practice Research Datalink) in individuals ≥18 years with incident T2D (n=420 448), we included factors (n=3787), including demography, history, examination, biomarkers and medications. Using a published framework, we identified subtypes through nine unsupervised ML methods (K-means, K-means++, K-mode, K-prototype, mini-batch, agglomerative hierarchical clustering, Birch, Gaussian mixture models, and consensus clustering). We characterized clusters using intracluster distributions and explainable artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. We evaluated subtypes for (1) internal validity (within dataset; across methods); (2) prognostic validity (prediction for 5-year all-cause mortality, hospitalization and new chronic diseases); and (3) medication burden., Results: Development : We identified four T2D subtypes: metabolic, early onset, late onset and cardiometabolic. Internal validity : Subtypes were predicted with high accuracy (F1 score >0.98). Prognostic validity : 5-year all-cause mortality, hospitalization, new chronic disease incidence and medication burden differed across T2D subtypes. Compared with the metabolic subtype, 5-year risks of mortality and hospitalization in incident T2D were highest in late-onset subtype (HR 1.95, 1.85-2.05 and 1.66, 1.58-1.75) and lowest in early-onset subtype (1.18, 1.11-1.27 and 0.85, 0.80-0.90). Incidence of chronic diseases was highest in late-onset subtype and lowest in early-onset subtype. Medications : Compared with the metabolic subtype, after adjusting for age, sex, and pre-T2D medications, late-onset subtype (1.31, 1.28-1.35) and early-onset subtype (0.83, 0.81-0.85) were most and least likely, respectively, to be prescribed medications within 5 years following T2D onset., Conclusions: In the largest study using ML to date in incident T2D, we identified four distinct subtypes, with potential future implications for etiology, therapeutics, and risk prediction., Competing Interests: Competing interests: JBM, HG and TM are employed by AstraZeneca UK, a biopharmaceutical company, and declare stock and stock options. AB has received research funding from AstraZeneca. KK has acted as a consultant, speaker or received grants for investigator-initiated studies for AstraZeneca, Bayer, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi-Aventis, Lilly and Merck Sharp & Dohme, Boehringer Ingelheim, Oramed Pharmaceuticals, Roche and Applied Therapeutics., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Sex differences in acute myocardial infarction treatment and outcomes are well documented, but it is unclear whether differences are consistent across countries. The objective of this study was to investigate the epidemiology, use of interventional procedures, and outcomes for older females and males hospitalized with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) in 6 diverse countries., Methods: We conducted a serial cross-sectional cohort study of 1 508 205 adults aged ≥66 years hospitalized with STEMI and NSTEMI between 2011 and 2018 in the United States, Canada, England, the Netherlands, Taiwan, and Israel using administrative data. We compared females and males within each country with respect to age-standardized hospitalization rates, rates of cardiac catheterization, percutaneous coronary intervention, and coronary artery bypass graft surgery within 90 days of hospitalization, and 30-day age- and comorbidity-adjusted mortality., Results: Hospitalization rates for STEMI and NSTEMI decreased between 2011 and 2018 in all countries, although the hospitalization rate ratio (rate in males/rate in females) increased in virtually all countries (eg, US STEMI ratio, 1.58:1 in 2011 and 1.73:1 in 2018; Israel NSTEMI ratio, 1.71:1 in 2011 and 2.11:1 in 2018). Rates of cardiac catheterization, percutaneous coronary intervention, and coronary artery bypass graft surgery were lower for females than males for STEMI in all countries and years (eg, US cardiac catheterization in 2018, 88.6% for females versus 91.5% for males; Israel percutaneous coronary intervention in 2018, 76.7% for females versus 84.8% for males) with similar findings for NSTEMI. Adjusted mortality for STEMI in 2018 was higher for females than males in 5 countries (the United States, Canada, the Netherlands, Israel, and Taiwan) but lower for females than males in 5 countries for NSTEMI., Conclusions: We observed a larger decline in acute myocardial infarction hospitalizations for females than males between 2011 and 2018. Females were less likely to receive cardiac interventions and had higher mortality after STEMI. Sex disparities seem to transcend borders, raising questions about the underlying causes and remedies., Competing Interests: Disclosures None.

Background: Hip fractures are costly and common in older adults, but there is limited understanding of how treatment patterns and outcomes might differ between countries., Methods: We performed a retrospective serial cross-sectional cohort study of adults aged ≥66 years hospitalized with hip fracture between 2011 and 2018 in the US, Canada, England, the Netherlands, Taiwan, and Israel using population-representative administrative data. We examined mortality, hip fracture treatment approaches (total hip arthroplasty [THA], hemiarthroplasty [HA], internal fixation [IF], and nonoperative), and health system performance measures, including hospital length of stay (LOS), 30-day readmission rates, and time-to-surgery., Results: The total number of hip fracture admissions between 2011 and 2018 ranged from 23,941 in Israel to 1,219,696 in the US. In 2018, 30-day mortality varied from 3% (16% at 1 year) in Taiwan to 10% (27%) in the Netherlands. With regards to processes of care, the proportion of hip fractures treated with HA (range 23%-45%) and THA (0.2%-10%) differed widely across countries. For example, in 2018, THA was used to treat approximately 9% of patients in England and Israel but less than 1% in Taiwan. Overall, IF was the most common surgery performed in all countries (40%-60% of patients). IF was used in approximately 60% of patients in the US and Israel, but only 40% in England. In 2018, rates of nonoperative management ranged from 5% of patients in Taiwan to nearly 10% in England. Mean hospital LOS in 2018 ranged from 6.4 days (US) to 18.7 days (England). The 30-day readmission rate in 2018 ranged from 8% (in Canada and the Netherlands) to nearly 18% in England. The mean days to surgery in 2018 ranged from 0.5 days (Israel) to 1.6 days (Canada)., Conclusions: We observed substantial between-country variation in mortality, surgical approaches, and health system performance measures. These findings underscore the need for further research to inform evidence-based surgical approaches., (© 2023 The American Geriatrics Society.)

Background: Heart failure (HF), type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) commonly coexist. We studied characteristics, prognosis and healthcare utilisation of individuals with two of these conditions., Methods: We performed a retrospective, population-based linked electronic health records study from 1998 to 2020 in England to identify individuals diagnosed with two of: HF, T2D or CKD. We described cohort characteristics at time of second diagnosis and estimated risk of developing the third condition and mortality using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models. We also estimated rates of healthcare utilisation in primary care and hospital settings in follow-up., Findings: We identified cohorts of 64 226 with CKD and HF, 82 431 with CKD and T2D, and 13 872 with HF and T2D. Compared with CKD and T2D, those with CKD and HF and HF and T2D had more severe risk factor profile. At 5 years, incidence of the third condition and all-cause mortality occurred in 37% (95% CI: 35.9%, 38.1%%) and 31.3% (30.4%, 32.3%) in HF+T2D, 8.7% (8.4%, 9.0%) and 51.6% (51.1%, 52.1%) in HF+CKD, and 6.8% (6.6%, 7.0%) and 17.9% (17.6%, 18.2%) in CKD+T2D, respectively. In each of the three multimorbid groups, the order of the first two diagnoses was also associated with prognosis. In multivariable analyses, we identified risk factors for developing the third condition and mortality, such as age, sex, medical history and the order of disease diagnosis. Inpatient and outpatient healthcare utilisation rates were highest in CKD and HF, and lowest in CKD and T2D., Interpretation: HF, CKD and T2D carry significant mortality and healthcare burden in combination. Compared with other disease pairs, individuals with CKD and HF had the most severe risk factor profile, prognosis and healthcare utilisation. Service planning, policy and prevention must take into account and monitor data across conditions., Competing Interests: Competing interests: JBM and TM are employed by AstraZeneca UK, a biopharmaceutical company. AB is supported by research funding from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), British Medical Association, AstraZeneca, the European Union, UK Research and Innovation, and Trustee of the South Asian Health Foundation and Long Covid SOS. Other authors report no competing interests., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Machine learning has been used to analyse heart failure subtypes, but not across large, distinct, population-based datasets, across the whole spectrum of causes and presentations, or with clinical and non-clinical validation by different machine learning methods. Using our published framework, we aimed to discover heart failure subtypes and validate them upon population representative data., Methods: In this external, prognostic, and genetic validation study we analysed individuals aged 30 years or older with incident heart failure from two population-based databases in the UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink [CPRD] and The Health Improvement Network [THIN]) from 1998 to 2018. Pre-heart failure and post-heart failure factors (n=645) included demographic information, history, examination, blood laboratory values, and medications. We identified subtypes using four unsupervised machine learning methods (K-means, hierarchical, K-Medoids, and mixture model clustering) with 87 of 645 factors in each dataset. We evaluated subtypes for (1) external validity (across datasets); (2) prognostic validity (predictive accuracy for 1-year mortality); and (3) genetic validity (UK Biobank), association with polygenic risk score (PRS) for heart failure-related traits (n=11), and single nucleotide polymorphisms (n=12)., Findings: We included 188 800, 124 262, and 9573 individuals with incident heart failure from CPRD, THIN, and UK Biobank, respectively, between Jan 1, 1998, and Jan 1, 2018. After identifying five clusters, we labelled heart failure subtypes as (1) early onset, (2) late onset, (3) atrial fibrillation related, (4) metabolic, and (5) cardiometabolic. In the external validity analysis, subtypes were similar across datasets (c-statistics: THIN model in CPRD ranged from 0·79 [subtype 3] to 0·94 [subtype 1], and CPRD model in THIN ranged from 0·79 [subtype 1] to 0·92 [subtypes 2 and 5]). In the prognostic validity analysis, 1-year all-cause mortality after heart failure diagnosis (subtype 1 0·20 [95% CI 0·14-0·25], subtype 2 0·46 [0·43-0·49], subtype 3 0·61 [0·57-0·64], subtype 4 0·11 [0·07-0·16], and subtype 5 0·37 [0·32-0·41]) differed across subtypes in CPRD and THIN data, as did risk of non-fatal cardiovascular diseases and all-cause hospitalisation. In the genetic validity analysis the atrial fibrillation-related subtype showed associations with the related PRS. Late onset and cardiometabolic subtypes were the most similar and strongly associated with PRS for hypertension, myocardial infarction, and obesity (p<0·0009). We developed a prototype app for routine clinical use, which could enable evaluation of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness., Interpretation: Across four methods and three datasets, including genetic data, in the largest study of incident heart failure to date, we identified five machine learning-informed subtypes, which might inform aetiological research, clinical risk prediction, and the design of heart failure trials., Funding: European Union Innovative Medicines Initiative-2., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests BT is an employee of Bayer and was previously an employee of Servier. TD is an employee of Bayer. AB is supported by research funding from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), British Medical Association, AstraZeneca, and UK Research and Innovation. HH is supported by Health Data Research UK (grant number LOND1), which is funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation, and Wellcome Trust; and is a NIHR Senior Investigator. AB, SD, FWA, and HH are funded by the NIHR University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Importance: Differences in the organization and financing of health systems may produce more or less equitable outcomes for advantaged vs disadvantaged populations. We compared treatments and outcomes of older high- and low-income patients across 6 countries., Objective: To determine whether treatment patterns and outcomes for patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction differ for low- vs high-income individuals across 6 countries., Design, Setting, and Participants: Serial cross-sectional cohort study of all adults aged 66 years or older hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction from 2013 through 2018 in the US, Canada, England, the Netherlands, Taiwan, and Israel using population-representative administrative data., Exposures: Being in the top and bottom quintile of income within and across countries., Main Outcomes and Measures: Thirty-day and 1-year mortality; secondary outcomes included rates of cardiac catheterization and revascularization, length of stay, and readmission rates., Results: We studied 289 376 patients hospitalized with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 843 046 hospitalized with non-STEMI (NSTEMI). Adjusted 30-day mortality generally was 1 to 3 percentage points lower for high-income patients. For instance, 30-day mortality among patients admitted with STEMI in the Netherlands was 10.2% for those with high income vs 13.1% for those with low income (difference, -2.8 percentage points [95% CI, -4.1 to -1.5]). One-year mortality differences for STEMI were even larger than 30-day mortality, with the highest difference in Israel (16.2% vs 25.3%; difference, -9.1 percentage points [95% CI, -16.7 to -1.6]). In all countries, rates of cardiac catheterization and percutaneous coronary intervention were higher among high- vs low-income populations, with absolute differences ranging from 1 to 6 percentage points (eg, 73.6% vs 67.4%; difference, 6.1 percentage points [95% CI, 1.2 to 11.0] for percutaneous intervention in England for STEMI). Rates of coronary artery bypass graft surgery for patients with STEMI in low- vs high-income strata were similar but for NSTEMI were generally 1 to 2 percentage points higher among high-income patients (eg, 12.5% vs 11.0% in the US; difference, 1.5 percentage points [95% CI, 1.3 to 1.8 ]). Thirty-day readmission rates generally also were 1 to 3 percentage points lower and hospital length of stay generally was 0.2 to 0.5 days shorter for high-income patients., Conclusions and Relevance: High-income individuals had substantially better survival and were more likely to receive lifesaving revascularization and had shorter hospital lengths of stay and fewer readmissions across almost all countries. Our results suggest that income-based disparities were present even in countries with universal health insurance and robust social safety net systems.

Background: Although chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with high multimorbidity, polypharmacy, morbidity and mortality, existing classification systems (mild to severe, usually based on estimated glomerular filtration rate, proteinuria or urine albumin-creatinine ratio) and risk prediction models largely ignore the complexity of CKD, its risk factors and its outcomes. Improved subtype definition could improve prediction of outcomes and inform effective interventions., Methods: We analysed individuals ≥18 years with incident and prevalent CKD (n = 350,067 and 195,422 respectively) from a population-based electronic health record resource (2006-2020; Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD). We included factors (n = 264 with 2670 derived variables), e.g. demography, history, examination, blood laboratory values and medications. Using a published framework, we identified subtypes through seven unsupervised machine learning (ML) methods (K-means, Diana, HC, Fanny, PAM, Clara, Model-based) with 66 (of 2670) variables in each dataset. We evaluated subtypes for: (i) internal validity (within dataset, across methods); (ii) prognostic validity (predictive accuracy for 5-year all-cause mortality and admissions); and (iii) medications (new and existing by British National Formulary chapter)., Findings: After identifying five clusters across seven approaches, we labelled CKD subtypes: 1. Early-onset, 2. Late-onset, 3. Cancer, 4. Metabolic, and 5. Cardiometabolic. Internal validity: We trained a high performing model (using XGBoost) that could predict disease subtypes with 95% accuracy for incident and prevalent CKD (Sensitivity: 0.81-0.98, F1 score:0.84-0.97). Prognostic validity: 5-year all-cause mortality, hospital admissions, and incidence of new chronic diseases differed across CKD subtypes. The 5-year risk of mortality and admissions in the overall incident CKD population were highest in cardiometabolic subtype: 43.3% (42.3-42.8%) and 29.5% (29.1-30.0%), respectively, and lowest in the early-onset subtype: 5.7% (5.5-5.9%) and 18.7% (18.4-19.1%)., Medications: Across CKD subtypes, the distribution of prescription medication classes at baseline varied, with highest medication burden in cardiometabolic and metabolic subtypes, and higher burden in prevalent than incident CKD., Interpretation: In the largest CKD study using ML, to-date, we identified five distinct subtypes in individuals with incident and prevalent CKD. These subtypes have relevance to study of aetiology, therapeutics and risk prediction., Funding: AstraZeneca UK Ltd, Health Data Research UK., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests JBM, HG and TM are employed by AstraZeneca UK Ltd, a biopharmaceutical company and declare stock and stock options. Other authors report no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To use national, pre- and post-pandemic electronic health records (EHR) to develop and validate a scenario-based model incorporating baseline mortality risk, infection rate (IR) and relative risk (RR) of death for prediction of excess deaths., Design: An EHR-based, retrospective cohort study., Setting: Linked EHR in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD); and linked EHR and COVID-19 data in England provided in NHS Digital Trusted Research Environment (TRE)., Participants: In the development (CPRD) and validation (TRE) cohorts, we included 3.8 million and 35.1 million individuals aged ≥30 years, respectively., Main Outcome Measures: One-year all-cause excess deaths related to COVID-19 from March 2020 to March 2021., Results: From 1 March 2020 to 1 March 2021, there were 127,020 observed excess deaths. Observed RR was 4.34% (95% CI, 4.31-4.38) and IR was 6.27% (95% CI, 6.26-6.28). In the validation cohort, predicted one-year excess deaths were 100,338 compared with the observed 127,020 deaths with a ratio of predicted to observed excess deaths of 0.79., Conclusions: We show that a simple, parsimonious model incorporating baseline mortality risk, one-year IR and RR of the pandemic can be used for scenario-based prediction of excess deaths in the early stages of a pandemic. Our analyses show that EHR could inform pandemic planning and surveillance, despite limited use in emergency preparedness to date. Although infection dynamics are important in the prediction of mortality, future models should take greater account of underlying conditions.

Background: Assessing the spectrum of disease risk associated with hypertriglyceridemia is needed to inform potential benefits from emerging triglyceride lowering treatments. We sought to examine the associations between a full range of plasma triglyceride concentration with five clinical outcomes., Methods: We used linked data from primary and secondary care for 15 M people, to explore the association between triglyceride concentration and risk of acute pancreatitis, chronic pancreatitis, new onset diabetes, myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality, over a median of 6-7 years follow up., Results: Triglyceride concentration was available for 1,530,411 individuals (mean age 56·6 ± 15·6 years, 51·4% female), with a median of 1·3 mmol/L (IQR: 0.9.to 1.9). Severe hypertriglyceridemia, defined as > 10 mmol/L, was identified in 3289 (0·21%) individuals including 620 with > 20 mmol/L. In multivariable analyses, a triglyceride concentration > 20 mmol/L was associated with very high risk for acute pancreatitis (Hazard ratio (HR) 13·55 (95% CI 9·15-20·06)); chronic pancreatitis (HR 25·19 (14·91-42·55)); and high risk for diabetes (HR 5·28 (4·51-6·18)) and all-cause mortality (HR 3·62 (2·82-4·65)) when compared to the reference category of ≤ 1·7 mmol/L. An association with myocardial infarction, however, was only observed for more moderate hypertriglyceridaemia between 1.7 and 10 mmol/L. We found a risk interaction with age, with higher risks for all outcomes including mortality among those ≤ 40 years compared to > 40 years., Conclusions: We highlight an exponential association between severe hypertriglyceridaemia and risk of incident acute and chronic pancreatitis, new diabetes, and mortality, especially at younger ages, but not for myocardial infarction for which only moderate hypertriglyceridemia conferred risk., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Objectives: To compare treatment and outcomes for patients admitted to hospital with a primary diagnosis of ST elevation or non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI or NSTEMI) in six high income countries with very different healthcare delivery systems., Design: Retrospective cross sectional cohort study., Setting: Patient level administrative data from the United States, Canada (Ontario and Manitoba), England, the Netherlands, Israel, and Taiwan., Participants: Adults aged 66 years and older admitted to hospital with STEMI or NSTEMI between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2017., Outcomes Measures: The three categories of outcomes were coronary revascularisation (percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass graft surgery), mortality, and efficiency (hospital length of stay and 30 day readmission). Rates were standardised to the age and sex distribution of the US acute myocardial infarction population in 2017. Outcomes were assessed separately for STEMI and NSTEMI. Performance was evaluated longitudinally (over time) and cross sectionally (between countries)., Results: The total number of hospital admissions ranged from 19 043 in Israel to 1 064 099 in the US. Large differences were found between countries for all outcomes. For example, the proportion of patients admitted to hospital with STEMI who received percutaneous coronary intervention in hospital during 2017 ranged from 36.9% (England) to 78.6% (Canada; 71.8% in the US); use of percutaneous coronary intervention for STEMI increased in all countries between 2011 and 2017, with particularly large rises in Israel (48.4-65.9%) and Taiwan (49.4-70.2%). The proportion of patients with NSTEMI who underwent coronary artery bypass graft surgery within 90 days of admission during 2017 was lowest in the Netherlands (3.5%) and highest in the US (11.7%). Death within one year of admission for STEMI in 2017 ranged from 18.9% (Netherlands) to 27.8% (US) and 32.3% (Taiwan). Mean hospital length of stay in 2017 for STEMI was lowest in the Netherlands and the US (5.0 and 5.1 days) and highest in Taiwan (8.5 days); 30 day readmission for STEMI was lowest in Taiwan (11.7%) and the US (12.2%) and highest in England (23.1%)., Conclusions: In an analysis of myocardial infarction in six high income countries, all countries had areas of high performance, but no country excelled in all three domains. Our findings suggest that countries could learn from each other by using international comparisons of patient level nationally representative data., Competing Interests: Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/disclosure-of-interest/ and declare: support from the US National Institute on Aging, ICES, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long term Care, Canadian Institute for Health Information for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; and no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Aims: Primary prevention strategies for heart failure (HF) have had limited success, possibly due to a wide range of underlying risk factors (RFs). Systematic evaluations of the prognostic burden and preventive potential across this wide range of risk factors are lacking. We aimed at estimating evidence, prevalence and co-occurrence for primary prevention and impact on prognosis of RFs for incident HF., Methods and Results: We systematically reviewed trials and observational evidence of primary HF prevention across 92 putative aetiologic RFs for HF identified from US and European clinical practice guidelines. We identified 170 885 individuals aged ≥30 years with incident HF from 1997 to 2017, using linked primary and secondary care UK electronic health records (EHR) and rule-based phenotypes (ICD-10, Read Version 2, OPCS-4 procedure and medication codes) for each of 92 RFs. Only 10/92 factors had high quality observational evidence for association with incident HF; 7 had effective randomized controlled trial (RCT)-based interventions for HF prevention (RCT-HF), and 6 for cardiovascular disease prevention, but not HF (RCT-CVD), and the remainder had no RCT-based preventive interventions (RCT-0). We were able to map 91/92 risk factors to EHR using 5961 terms, and 88/91 factors were represented by at least one patient. In the 5 years prior to HF diagnosis, 44.3% had ≥4 RFs. By RCT evidence, the most common RCT-HF RFs were hypertension (48.5%), stable angina (34.9%), unstable angina (16.8%), myocardial infarction (15.8%), and diabetes (15.1%); RCT-CVD RFs were smoking (46.4%) and obesity (29.9%); and RCT-0 RFs were atrial arrhythmias (17.2%), cancer (16.5%), heavy alcohol intake (14.9%). Mortality at 1 year varied across all 91 factors (lowest: pregnancy-related hormonal disorder 4.2%; highest: phaeochromocytoma 73.7%). Among new HF cases, 28.5% had no RCT-HF RFs and 38.6% had no RCT-CVD RFs. 15.6% had either no RF or only RCT-0 RFs., Conclusion: One in six individuals with HF have no recorded RFs or RFs without trials. We provide a systematic map of primary preventive opportunities across a wide range of RFs for HF, demonstrating a high burden of co-occurrence and the need for trials tackling multiple RFs., (© 2021 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.)

Aims: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) increase mortality risk from coronavirus infection (COVID-19). There are also concerns that the pandemic has affected supply and demand of acute cardiovascular care. We estimated excess mortality in specific CVDs, both 'direct', through infection, and 'indirect', through changes in healthcare., Methods and Results: We used (i) national mortality data for England and Wales to investigate trends in non-COVID-19 and CVD excess deaths; (ii) routine data from hospitals in England (n = 2), Italy (n = 1), and China (n = 5) to assess indirect pandemic effects on referral, diagnosis, and treatment services for CVD; and (iii) population-based electronic health records from 3 862 012 individuals in England to investigate pre- and post-COVID-19 mortality for people with incident and prevalent CVD. We incorporated pre-COVID-19 risk (by age, sex, and comorbidities), estimated population COVID-19 prevalence, and estimated relative risk (RR) of mortality in those with CVD and COVID-19 compared with CVD and non-infected (RR: 1.2, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0).Mortality data suggest indirect effects on CVD will be delayed rather than contemporaneous (peak RR 1.14). CVD service activity decreased by 60-100% compared with pre-pandemic levels in eight hospitals across China, Italy, and England. In China, activity remained below pre-COVID-19 levels for 2-3 months even after easing lockdown and is still reduced in Italy and England. For total CVD (incident and prevalent), at 10% COVID-19 prevalence, we estimated direct impact of 31 205 and 62 410 excess deaths in England (RR 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), and indirect effect of 49 932 to 99 865 deaths., Conclusion: Supply and demand for CVD services have dramatically reduced across countries with potential for substantial, but avoidable, excess mortality during and after the pandemic., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Patients and public have sought mortality risk information throughout the pandemic, but their needs may not be served by current risk prediction tools. Our mixed methods study involved: (1) systematic review of published risk tools for prognosis, (2) provision and patient testing of new mortality risk estimates for people with high-risk conditions and (3) iterative patient and public involvement and engagement with qualitative analysis. Only one of 53 (2%) previously published risk tools involved patients or the public, while 11/53 (21%) had publicly accessible portals, but all for use by clinicians and researchers.Among people with a wide range of underlying conditions, there has been sustained interest and engagement in accessible and tailored, pre- and postpandemic mortality information. Informed by patient feedback, we provide such information in 'five clicks' (https://covid19-phenomics.org/OurRiskCoV.html), as context for decision making and discussions with health professionals and family members. Further development requires curation and regular updating of NHS data and wider patient and public engagement., (© Royal College of Physicians 2021. All rights reserved.)

Background: Targeted obesity prevention policies would benefit from the identification of population groups with the highest risk of weight gain. The relative importance of adult age, sex, ethnicity, geographical region, and degree of social deprivation on weight gain is not known. We aimed to identify high-risk groups for changes in weight and BMI using electronic health records (EHR)., Methods: In this longitudinal, population-based cohort study we used linked EHR data from 400 primary care practices (via the Clinical Practice Research Datalink) in England, accessed via the CALIBER programme. Eligible participants were aged 18-74 years, were registered at a general practice clinic, and had BMI and weight measurements recorded between Jan 1, 1998, and June 30, 2016, during the period when they had eligible linked data with at least 1 year of follow-up time. We calculated longitudinal changes in BMI over 1, 5, and 10 years, and investigated the absolute risk and odds ratios (ORs) of transitioning between BMI categories (underweight, normal weight, overweight, obesity class 1 and 2, and severe obesity [class 3]), as defined by WHO. The associations of demographic factors with BMI transitions were estimated by use of logistic regression analysis, adjusting for baseline BMI, family history of cardiovascular disease, use of diuretics, and prevalent chronic conditions., Findings: We included 2 092 260 eligible individuals with more than 9 million BMI measurements in our study. Young adult age was the strongest risk factor for weight gain at 1, 5, and 10 years of follow-up. Compared with the oldest age group (65-74 years), adults in the youngest age group (18-24 years) had the highest OR (4·22 [95% CI 3·86-4·62]) and greatest absolute risk (37% vs 24%) of transitioning from normal weight to overweight or obesity at 10 years. Likewise, adults in the youngest age group with overweight or obesity at baseline were also at highest risk to transition to a higher BMI category; OR 4·60 (4·06-5·22) and absolute risk (42% vs 18%) of transitioning from overweight to class 1 and 2 obesity, and OR 5·87 (5·23-6·59) and absolute risk (22% vs 5%) of transitioning from class 1 and 2 obesity to class 3 obesity. Other demographic factors were consistently less strongly associated with these transitions; for example, the OR of transitioning from normal weight to overweight or obesity in people living in the most socially deprived versus least deprived areas was 1·23 (1·18-1·27), for men versus women was 1·12 (1·08-1·16), and for Black individuals versus White individuals was 1·13 (1·04-1·24). We provide an open access online risk calculator, and present high-resolution obesity risk charts over a 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year follow-up period., Interpretation: A radical shift in policy is required to focus on individuals at the highest risk of weight gain (ie, young adults aged 18-24 years) for individual-level and population-level prevention of obesity and its long-term consequences for health and health care., Funding: The British Hearth Foundation, Health Data Research UK, the UK Medical Research Council, and the National Institute for Health Research., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests RLB reports consulting fees from Novo Nordisk, ViiV Healthcare, Pfizer, and Gila Therapeutics; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from Novo Nordisk, ViiV Healthcare, International Medical Press, and Medscape; participation on a data safety monitoring board or advisory board for Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, and ViiV Healthcare; being a committee member of the British Obesity and Metabolic Surgery Society, a trustee for the Association for the Study of Obesity, a scientific chair of the International Federation for the Surgery for Obesity (IFSO) and metabolic disorders European Chapter, a chair of the Royal College of Physicians advisory Committee on Nutrition, Weight and Health, an European Society of Endocrinology clinical committee member, and a trustee of Obesity Empowerment Network UK; being a member of the IFSO scientific committee; being a member of the NICE Weight Management Guideline Development Group; and being a principal investigator on two obesity clinical trials of cagrilintide versus placebo and semaglutide versus placebo (sponsored by Novo Nordisk), and one clinical trial of liraglutide versus placebo (both drugs were provided by Novo Nordisk). AB reports grants from Astra Zeneca. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer care services and overall (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer., Methods: We employed near real-time weekly data on cancer care to determine the adverse effect of the pandemic on cancer services. We also used these data, together with national death registrations until June 2020 to model deaths, in excess of background (pre-COVID-19) mortality, in people with cancer. Background mortality risks for 24 cancers with and without COVID-19-relevant comorbidities were obtained from population-based primary care cohort (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) on 3 862 012 adults in England., Results: Declines in urgent referrals (median=-70.4%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=-41.5%) to a nadir (lowest point) in the pandemic were observed. By 31 May, these declines have only partially recovered; urgent referrals (median=-44.5%) and chemotherapy attendances (median=-31.2%). There were short-term excess death registrations for cancer (without COVID-19), with peak relative risk (RR) of 1.17 at week ending on 3 April. The peak RR for all-cause deaths was 2.1 from week ending on 17 April. Based on these findings and recent literature, we modelled 40% and 80% of cancer patients being affected by the pandemic in the long-term. At 40% affected, we estimated 1-year total (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer as between 7165 and 17 910, using RRs of 1.2 and 1.5, respectively, where 78% of excess deaths occured in patients with ≥1 comorbidity., Conclusions: Dramatic reductions were detected in the demand for, and supply of, cancer services which have not fully recovered with lockdown easing. These may contribute, over a 1-year time horizon, to substantial excess mortality among people with cancer and multimorbidity. It is urgent to understand how the recovery of general practitioner, oncology and other hospital services might best mitigate these long-term excess mortality risks., Competing Interests: Competing interests: ML has received honoraria from Pfizer, EMD Serono and Roche for presentations unrelated to this research, and an unrestricted educational grant from Pfizer for research unrelated to the research presented in this paper. AB has received research funding from AstraZeneca. MF has received research funding from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Merck and MSD and honoraria from Achilles, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Meyers Squibb, Celgene, Guardant Health, Merck, MSD, Nanobiotix, Novartis, Pharmamar, Roche and Takeda for advisory roles or presentations unrelated to this research. GF receives funding from companies that manufacture drugs for hepatitis C virus (AbbVie, Gilead, MSD) and is a consultant for GSK, Arbutus and Shionogi in areas unrelated to this research., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: We aimed to model the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on the clinical academic response in England, and to provide recommendations for COVID-related research., Design: A stochastic model to determine clinical academic capacity in England, incorporating the following key factors which affect the ability to conduct research in the COVID-19 climate: (i) infection growth rate and population infection rate (from UK COVID-19 statistics and WHO); (ii) strain on the healthcare system (from published model); and (iii) availability of clinical academic staff with appropriate skillsets affected by frontline clinical activity and sickness (from UK statistics)., Setting: Clinical academics in primary and secondary care in England., Participants: Equivalent of 3200 full-time clinical academics in England., Interventions: Four policy approaches to COVID-19 with differing population infection rates: "Italy model" (6%), "mitigation" (10%), "relaxed mitigation" (40%) and "do-nothing" (80%) scenarios. Low and high strain on the health system (no clinical academics able to do research at 10% and 5% infection rate, respectively., Main Outcome Measures: Number of full-time clinical academics available to conduct clinical research during the pandemic in England., Results: In the "Italy model", "mitigation", "relaxed mitigation" and "do-nothing" scenarios, from 5 March 2020 the duration (days) and peak infection rates (%) are 95(2.4%), 115(2.5%), 240(5.3%) and 240(16.7%) respectively. Near complete attrition of academia (87% reduction, <400 clinical academics) occurs 35 days after pandemic start for 11, 34, 62, 76 days respectively-with no clinical academics at all for 37 days in the "do-nothing" scenario. Restoration of normal academic workforce (80% of normal capacity) takes 11, 12, 30 and 26 weeks respectively., Conclusions: Pandemic COVID-19 crushes the science needed at system level. National policies mitigate, but the academic community needs to adapt. We highlight six key strategies: radical prioritisation (eg 3-4 research ideas per institution), deep resourcing, non-standard leadership (repurposing of key non-frontline teams), rationalisation (profoundly simple approaches), careful site selection (eg protected sites with large academic backup) and complete suspension of academic competition with collaborative approaches., Competing Interests: No competing interests for any authors.

Background: The medical, societal, and economic impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has unknown effects on overall population mortality. Previous models of population mortality are based on death over days among infected people, nearly all of whom thus far have underlying conditions. Models have not incorporated information on high-risk conditions or their longer-term baseline (pre-COVID-19) mortality. We estimated the excess number of deaths over 1 year under different COVID-19 incidence scenarios based on varying levels of transmission suppression and differing mortality impacts based on different relative risks for the disease., Methods: In this population-based cohort study, we used linked primary and secondary care electronic health records from England (Health Data Research UK-CALIBER). We report prevalence of underlying conditions defined by Public Health England guidelines (from March 16, 2020) in individuals aged 30 years or older registered with a practice between 1997 and 2017, using validated, openly available phenotypes for each condition. We estimated 1-year mortality in each condition, developing simple models (and a tool for calculation) of excess COVID-19-related deaths, assuming relative impact (as relative risks [RRs]) of the COVID-19 pandemic (compared with background mortality) of 1·5, 2·0, and 3·0 at differing infection rate scenarios, including full suppression (0·001%), partial suppression (1%), mitigation (10%), and do nothing (80%). We also developed an online, public, prototype risk calculator for excess death estimation., Findings: We included 3 862 012 individuals (1 957 935 [50·7%] women and 1 904 077 [49·3%] men). We estimated that more than 20% of the study population are in the high-risk category, of whom 13·7% were older than 70 years and 6·3% were aged 70 years or younger with at least one underlying condition. 1-year mortality in the high-risk population was estimated to be 4·46% (95% CI 4·41-4·51). Age and underlying conditions combined to influence background risk, varying markedly across conditions. In a full suppression scenario in the UK population, we estimated that there would be two excess deaths (vs baseline deaths) with an RR of 1·5, four with an RR of 2·0, and seven with an RR of 3·0. In a mitigation scenario, we estimated 18 374 excess deaths with an RR of 1·5, 36 749 with an RR of 2·0, and 73 498 with an RR of 3·0. In a do nothing scenario, we estimated 146 996 excess deaths with an RR of 1·5, 293 991 with an RR of 2·0, and 587 982 with an RR of 3·0., Interpretation: We provide policy makers, researchers, and the public a simple model and an online tool for understanding excess mortality over 1 year from the COVID-19 pandemic, based on age, sex, and underlying condition-specific estimates. These results signal the need for sustained stringent suppression measures as well as sustained efforts to target those at highest risk because of underlying conditions with a range of preventive interventions. Countries should assess the overall (direct and indirect) effects of the pandemic on excess mortality., Funding: National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, Health Data Research UK., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Electronic health records (EHRs) are a rich source of information on human diseases, but the information is variably structured, fragmented, curated using different coding systems, and collected for purposes other than medical research. We describe an approach for developing, validating, and sharing reproducible phenotypes from national structured EHR in the United Kingdom with applications for translational research., Materials and Methods: We implemented a rule-based phenotyping framework, with up to 6 approaches of validation. We applied our framework to a sample of 15 million individuals in a national EHR data source (population-based primary care, all ages) linked to hospitalization and death records in England. Data comprised continuous measurements (for example, blood pressure; medication information; coded diagnoses, symptoms, procedures, and referrals), recorded using 5 controlled clinical terminologies: (1) read (primary care, subset of SNOMED-CT [Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms]), (2) International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Revision and Tenth Revision (secondary care diagnoses and cause of mortality), (3) Office of Population Censuses and Surveys Classification of Surgical Operations and Procedures, Fourth Revision (hospital surgical procedures), and (4) DM+D prescription codes., Results: Using the CALIBER phenotyping framework, we created algorithms for 51 diseases, syndromes, biomarkers, and lifestyle risk factors and provide up to 6 validation approaches. The EHR phenotypes are curated in the open-access CALIBER Portal (https://www.caliberresearch.org/portal) and have been used by 40 national and international research groups in 60 peer-reviewed publications., Conclusions: We describe a UK EHR phenomics approach within the CALIBER EHR data platform with initial evidence of validity and use, as an important step toward international use of UK EHR data for health research., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.)

Background: Clinical guidelines and public health authorities lack recommendations on scalable approaches to defining and monitoring the occurrence and severity of bleeding in populations prescribed antithrombotic therapy., Methods: We examined linked primary care, hospital admission and death registry electronic health records (CALIBER 1998-2010, England) of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation, acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina or stable angina with the aim to develop algorithms for bleeding events. Using the developed bleeding phenotypes, Kaplan-Meier plots were used to estimate the incidence of bleeding events and we used Cox regression models to assess the prognosis for all-cause mortality, atherothrombotic events and further bleeding., Results: We present electronic health record phenotyping algorithms for bleeding based on bleeding diagnosis in primary or hospital care, symptoms, transfusion, surgical procedures and haemoglobin values. In validation of the phenotype, we estimated a positive predictive value of 0.88 (95% CI 0.64, 0.99) for hospitalised bleeding. Amongst 128,815 patients, 27,259 (21.2%) had at least 1 bleeding event, with 5-year risks of bleeding of 29.1%, 21.9%, 25.3% and 23.4% following diagnoses of atrial fibrillation, acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina and stable angina, respectively. Rates of hospitalised bleeding per 1000 patients more than doubled from 1.02 (95% CI 0.83, 1.22) in January 1998 to 2.68 (95% CI 2.49, 2.88) in December 2009 coinciding with the increased rates of antiplatelet and vitamin K antagonist prescribing. Patients with hospitalised bleeding and primary care bleeding, with or without markers of severity, were at increased risk of all-cause mortality and atherothrombotic events compared to those with no bleeding. For example, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.98 (95% CI 1.86, 2.11) for primary care bleeding with markers of severity and 1.99 (95% CI 1.92, 2.05) for hospitalised bleeding without markers of severity, compared to patients with no bleeding., Conclusions: Electronic health record bleeding phenotyping algorithms offer a scalable approach to monitoring bleeding in the population. Incidence of bleeding has doubled in incidence since 1998, affects one in four cardiovascular disease patients, and is associated with poor prognosis. Efforts are required to tackle this iatrogenic epidemic.

Objectives: To investigate the incidence and determinants of heart failure (HF) following a myocardial infarction (MI) in a contemporary cohort of patients with MI using routinely collected primary and hospital care electronic health records (EHRs)., Methods: Data were used from the CALIBER programme, linking EHRs in England from primary care, hospital admissions, an MI registry and mortality data. Subjects were eligible if they were 18 years or older, did not have a history of HF and survived a first MI. Factors associated with time to HF were examined using Cox proportional hazard models., Results: Of the 24 479 patients with MI, 5775 (23.6%) developed HF during a median follow-up of 3.7 years (incidence rate per 1000 person-years: 63.8, 95% CI 62.2 to 65.5). Baseline characteristics significantly associated with developing HF were: atrial fibrillation (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.51 to 1.75), age (per 10 years increase: 1.45, 1.41 to 1.49), diabetes (1.45, 1.35 to 1.56), peripheral arterial disease (1.38, 1.26 to 1.51), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.28, 1.17 to 1.40), greater socioeconomic deprivation (5th vs 1st quintile: 1.27, 1.13 to 1.41), ST-segment elevation MI at presentation (1.19, 1.11 to 1.27) and hypertension (1.16, 1.09 to 1.23). Results were robust to various sensitivity analyses such as competing risk analysis and multiple imputation., Conclusion: In England, one in four survivors of a first MI develop HF within 4 years. This contemporary study demonstrates that patients with MI are at considerable risk of HF. Baseline patient characteristics associated with time until HF were identified, which may be used to target preventive strategies., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Aims: The aim of this study is to develop models to aid the decision to prolong dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) that requires balancing an individual patient's potential benefits and harms., Methods and Results: Using population-based electronic health records (EHRs) (CALIBER, England, 2000-10), of patients evaluated 1 year after acute myocardial infarction (MI), we developed (n = 12 694 patients) and validated (n = 5613) prognostic models for cardiovascular (cardiovascular death, MI or stroke) events and three different bleeding endpoints. We applied trial effect estimates to determine potential benefits and harms of DAPT and the net clinical benefit of individuals. Prognostic models for cardiovascular events (c-index: 0.75 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.77)) and bleeding (c index 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.77)) were well calibrated: 3-year risk of cardiovascular events was 16.5% overall (5.2% in the lowest- and 46.7% in the highest-risk individuals), while for major bleeding, it was 1.7% (0.3% in the lowest- and 5.4% in the highest-risk patients). For every 10 000 patients treated per year, we estimated 249 (95% CI: 228, 269) cardiovascular events prevented and 134 (95% CI: 87, 181) major bleeding events caused in the highest-risk patients, and 28 (95% CI: 19, 37) cardiovascular events prevented and 9 (95% CI: 0, 20) major bleeding events caused in the lowest-risk patients. There was a net clinical benefit of prolonged DAPT in 63-99% patients depending on how benefits and harms were weighted., Conclusion: Prognostic models for cardiovascular events and bleeding using population-based EHRs may help to personalise decisions for prolonged DAPT 1-year following acute MI., (© The Author 2017. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology)

Objective:  To estimate the potential magnitude in unselected patients of the benefits and harms of prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy after acute myocardial infarction seen in selected patients with high risk characteristics in trials., Design:  Observational population based cohort study., Setting:  PEGASUS-TIMI-54 trial population and CALIBER (ClinicAl research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records)., Participants:  7238 patients who survived a year or more after acute myocardial infarction., Interventions:  Prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy after acute myocardial infarction., Main Outcome Measures:  Recurrent acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or fatal cardiovascular disease. Fatal, severe, or intracranial bleeding., Results:  1676/7238 (23.1%) patients met trial inclusion and exclusion criteria ("target" population). Compared with the placebo arm in the trial population, in the target population the median age was 12 years higher, there were more women (48.6% v 24.3%), and there was a substantially higher cumulative three year risk of both the primary (benefit) trial endpoint of recurrent acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or fatal cardiovascular disease (18.8% (95% confidence interval 16.3% to 21.8%) v 9.04%) and the primary (harm) endpoint of fatal, severe, or intracranial bleeding (3.0% (2.0% to 4.4%) v 1.26% (TIMI major bleeding)). Application of intention to treat relative risks from the trial (ticagrelor 60 mg daily arm) to CALIBER's target population showed an estimated 101 (95% confidence interval 87 to 117) ischaemic events prevented per 10 000 treated per year and an estimated 75 (50 to 110) excess fatal, severe, or intracranial bleeds caused per 10 000 patients treated per year. Generalisation from CALIBER's target subgroup to all 7238 real world patients who were stable at least one year after acute myocardial infarction showed similar three year risks of ischaemic events (17.2%, 16.0% to 18.5%), with an estimated 92 (86 to 99) events prevented per 10 000 patients treated per year, and similar three year risks of bleeding events (2.3%, 1.8% to 2.9%), with an estimated 58 (45 to 73) events caused per 10 000 patients treated per year., Conclusions:  This novel use of primary-secondary care linked electronic health records allows characterisation of "healthy trial participant" effects and confirms the potential absolute benefits and harms of dual antiplatelet therapy in representative patients a year or more after acute myocardial infarction., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Ischemia/reperfusion injury (IRI) that develops after liver implantation may prejudice long-term graft survival, but it remains poorly understood. Here we correlate the severity of IRIs that were determined by histological grading of time-zero biopsies sampled after graft revascularization with patient and graft outcomes. Time-zero biopsies of 476 liver transplants performed at our center between 2000 and 2010 were graded as follows: nil (10.5%), mild (58.8%), moderate (26.1%), and severe (4.6%). Severe IRI was associated with donor age, donation after circulatory death, prolonged cold ischemia time, and liver steatosis, but it was also associated with increased rates of primary nonfunction (9.1%) and retransplantation within 90 days (22.7%). Longer term outcomes in the severe IRI group were also poor, with 1-year graft and patient survival rates of only 55% and 68%, respectively (cf. 90% and 93% for the remainder). Severe IRI on the time-zero biopsy was, in a multivariate analysis, an independent determinant of 1-year graft survival and was a better predictor of 1-year graft loss than liver steatosis, early graft dysfunction syndrome, and high first-week alanine aminotransferase with a positive predictive value of 45%. Time-zero biopsies predict adverse clinical outcomes after liver transplantation, and severe IRI upon biopsy signals the likely need for early retransplantation., (© 2015 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.)

Purpose: The Stickler syndromes are the most common causes of inherited and childhood retinal detachment; however, no consensus exists regarding the effectiveness of prophylactic intervention. We evaluate the long-term safety and efficacy of the Cambridge prophylactic cryotherapy protocol, a standardized retinal prophylactic treatment developed to prevent retinal detachment arising from giant retinal tears in type 1 Stickler syndrome., Design: Retrospective comparative case series., Participants: Four hundred eighty seven patients with type 1 Stickler syndrome., Methods: Time to retinal detachment was compared between patients who received bilateral prophylaxis and untreated controls, with and without individual patient matching. Patients receiving unilateral prophylaxis (after fellow eye retinal detachment) were similarly compared with an appropriate control subgroup. Individual patient matching ensured equal age and follow-up between groups and that an appropriate control (who had not suffered a retinal detachment before the age at which their individually matched treatment patient underwent prophylactic treatment) was selected. Matching was blinded to outcome events. Individual patient matching protocols purposely weighted bias against the effectiveness of treatment. All treatment side effects are reported., Main Outcome Measures: Time to retinal detachment and side effects occurring after prophylactic treatment., Results: The bilateral control group (n = 194) had a 7.4-fold increased risk of retinal detachment compared to the bilateral prophylaxis group (n = 229) (hazard ratio [HR], 7.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.53-12.08; P<0.001); the matched bilateral control group (n = 165) had a 5.0-fold increased risk compared to the matched bilateral prophylaxis group (n = 165) (HR, 4.97; 95% CI, 2.82-8.78; P<0.001). The unilateral control group (n = 104) had a 10.3-fold increased risk of retinal detachment compared to the unilateral prophylaxis group (n = 64) (HR, 10.29; 95% CI, 4.96-21.36; P<0.001); the matched unilateral control group (n = 39) had a 8.4-fold increased risk compared to the matched unilateral prophylaxis group (n = 39) (HR, 8.36; 95% CI, 3.24-21.57; P<0.001). No significant long-term side effects occurred., Conclusions: In the largest global cohort of type 1 Stickler syndrome patients published, all analyses indicate that the Cambridge prophylactic cryotherapy protocol is safe and markedly reduces the risk of retinal detachment., (Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Small studies suggest peanut oral immunotherapy (OIT) might be effective in the treatment of peanut allergy. We aimed to establish the efficacy of OIT for the desensitisation of children with allergy to peanuts., Methods: We did a randomised controlled crossover trial to compare the efficacy of active OIT (using characterised peanut flour; protein doses of 2-800 mg/day) with control (peanut avoidance, the present standard of care) at the NIHR/Wellcome Trust Cambridge Clinical Research Facility (Cambridge, UK). Randomisation (1:1) was by use of an audited online system; group allocation was not masked. Eligible participants were aged 7-16 years with an immediate hypersensitivity reaction after peanut ingestion, positive skin prick test to peanuts, and positive by double-blind placebo-controlled food challenge (DBPCFC). We excluded participants if they had a major chronic illness, if the care provider or a present household member had suspected or diagnosed allergy to peanuts, or if there was an unwillingness or inability to comply with study procedures. Our primary outcome was desensitisation, defined as negative peanut challenge (1400 mg protein in DBPCFC) at 6 months (first phase). Control participants underwent OIT during the second phase, with subsequent DBPCFC. Immunological parameters and disease-specific quality-of-life scores were measured. Analysis was by intention to treat. Fisher's exact test was used to compare the proportion of those with desensitisation to peanut after 6 months between the active and control group at the end of the first phase. This trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials, number ISRCTN62416244., Findings: The primary outcome, desensitisation, was recorded for 62% (24 of 39 participants; 95% CI 45-78) in the active group and none of the control group after the first phase (0 of 46; 95% CI 0-9; p<0·001). 84% (95% CI 70-93) of the active group tolerated daily ingestion of 800 mg protein (equivalent to roughly five peanuts). Median increase in peanut threshold after OIT was 1345 mg (range 45-1400; p<0·001) or 25·5 times (range 1·82-280; p<0·001). After the second phase, 54% (95% CI 35-72) tolerated 1400 mg challenge (equivalent to roughly ten peanuts) and 91% (79-98) tolerated daily ingestion of 800 mg protein. Quality-of-life scores improved (decreased) after OIT (median change -1·61; p<0·001). Side-effects were mild in most participants. Gastrointestinal symptoms were, collectively, most common (31 participants with nausea, 31 with vomiting, and one with diarrhoea), then oral pruritus after 6·3% of doses (76 participants) and wheeze after 0·41% of doses (21 participants). Intramuscular adrenaline was used after 0·01% of doses (one participant)., Interpretation: OIT successfully induced desensitisation in most children within the study population with peanut allergy of any severity, with a clinically meaningful increase in peanut threshold. Quality of life improved after intervention and there was a good safety profile. Immunological changes corresponded with clinical desensitisation. Further studies in wider populations are recommended; peanut OIT should not be done in non-specialist settings, but it is effective and well tolerated in the studied age group., Funding: MRC-NIHR partnership., (Copyright © 2014 Anagnostou et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-ND. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Systolic blood pressure variability is an independent risk factor for mortality and cardiovascular events. Standard measures of blood pressure predict outcome poorly in haemodialysis patients. We investigated whether systolic blood pressure variability was associated with mortality in incident haemodialysis patients. We performed a longitudinal observational study of patients commencing haemodialysis between 2005 and 2011 in East Anglia, UK, excluding patients with cardiovascular events within 6 months of starting haemodialysis. The main exposure was variability independent of the mean (VIM) of systolic blood pressure from short-gap, pre-dialysis blood pressure readings between 3 and 6 months after commencing haemodialysis, and the outcome was all-cause mortality. Of 203 patients, 37 (18.2%) patients died during a mean follow-up of 2.0 (SD 1.3) years. The age and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.17) for a one-unit increase of VIM. This was not altered by adjustment for diabetes, prior cardiovascular disease and mean systolic blood pressure (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02-1.16). Patients with VIM of systolic blood pressure above the median were 2.4 (95% CI 1.17-4.74) times more likely to die during follow-up than those below the median. Results were similar for all measures of blood pressure variability and further adjustment for type of dialysis access, use of antihypertensives and absolute or variability of fluid intake did not alter these findings. Diastolic blood pressure variability showed no association with all cause mortality. Our study shows that variability of systolic blood pressure is a strong and independent predictor of all-cause mortality in incident haemodialysis patients. Further research is needed to understand the mechanism as this may form a therapeutic target or focus for management.