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A study for the Arctic seas examines the influence of surface currents on changes in levels and mean ice thickness. On the example of the water areas of the Greenland Sea and the Baffin Sea, the hypothesis of a significant correlation between changes in the topography of the water surface and the average thickness of ice in areas influenced by warm and cold surface currents is tested. Similar, albeit less pronounced, patterns of currents also take place in other Arctic seas, including the Barents and Kara seas, which are characterized by intensive navigation in the waters of the Northern Sea Route. The results of the GLORYS12v1 reanalysis, available for every day of a period of more than 10 years with a coordinate step of 5 arc minutes, were used as initial data on the water surface level and mean ice thickness in the study area. For each node of the coordinate grid for the months from November to March, time series of data on the average monthly values of these characteristics were formed. It has been established that in areas through which warm currents pass, carrying more saline water, such a correlation exists in most areas and is negative. In areas where cold currents pass, carrying water with lower salinity, the correlation of the same processes can be significant and positive. It is assumed that the identified patterns are also manifested in other areas of the Arctic seas with similar current systems, including those located along the Northern Sea Route and characterized by active navigation. It is noted that it is expedient to take into account sea level changes in such areas in the course of medium- and long-term forecasting of the average ice thickness in them in order to plan year-round navigation, including during the most difficult winter-spring navigation period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improving the methods of long-term forecasting of changes in the ice cover of various parts of the water area of the Northern Sea Route is an urgent problem of hydrography and navigation safety. One of the approaches to its solution is to identify natural processes that generate significant responses in these changes that are delayed by a few weeks or months. The authors put forward a hypothesis that the changes in the ice coverage of some parts of the Arctic seas in the summer months can be significantly influenced by climate warming in the feeding areas of Siberian rivers in the spring months. The aim of the work is to test this hypothesis, as well as to assess the role of forest fires in Siberia in this process. The data of weather and ice observations, as well as GLORYS12v.1 and ERA 5 reanalysis were used as factual material. It has been established that climate warming in the basins of Siberian rivers during the spring flood can cause significant responses - changes in the ice cover of certain areas of the Arctic seas in May – June against the background of responses caused by variations in soot flows from forest fires delivered to the Arctic by southern cyclones. This fact is confirmed for the eastern part of the East Siberian Sea, which includes the near-estuary seaside of the Kolyma River and other sections of the water area of the Northern Sea Route belonging to this sea. The results obtained confirm the hypothesis put forward and can be used for long-term forecasting of the ice coverage in a number of sections of the Northern Sea Route. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conditions of navigation on the Northern Sea Route (hereinafter referred to as the NSR) are largely determined by changes in the average thickness and concentration of the ice cover in its sections. These changes can be caused by different natural processes, a more complete understanding and consideration of which can significantly improve the quality of medium-term forecasts of ice conditions in the Arctic seas. The areas of the NSR with the most intensive shipping are currently located in the Kara Sea, where, despite difficult ice conditions particularly in the winter-spring period, navigation is year-round. The authors put forward a hypothesis that interannual variations in ice thickness and concentration of some sections of the Kara Sea in winter-spring months can be significantly influenced by changes in the Norwegian Sea level. The paper verifies this assumption and provides an assessment of current trends in the Norwegian Sea level variations. The research methodology is based on standard methods of mathematical statistics. GLORYS12v.1 reanalysis is used as a data source. It is shown that a large number of areas for which the hypothesis is true exist in the Kara Sea in certain months. For the same months, an increasing trend in interannual variations in the mean level of the Norwegian Sea is found for the last two decades. Qualitative forecasts of the Kara Sea ice thickness and concentration are provided which will be relevant as long as the Norwegian Sea level dynamics does not change and the identified relationships stay significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]