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The report is a summary of student-led research on sustainable urban logistics, focusing on parcel delivery. It aims to inspire logistics stakeholders including policy advisers, decision-makers and residents with new possible sustainable solutions. The results are presented in three overarching themes: ● NODES, exploring how to effectively implement parcel lockers and logistic hubs ● FLOWS, identifying favourable conditions for cargo bikes, small electric delivery vans and drone delivery ● POLICIES, addressing the consequences of sustainable logistics policies for small entrepreneurs and retail districts

The number of last-mile deliveries is expected to grow by 78% worldwide by 2030 (World Economic Forum, 2020). This growth poses serious challenges to the last-mile sector with regard to logistics operations within dense urban areas, improving sustainability of the sector, and establishing cooperation between logistics stakeholders. In addressing these challenges scenarios are a powerful tool to inform future pathways as they aid last mile policy makers and other logistics stakeholders to rehearse the future. This study aims to identify plausible future states in last-mile logistics for mid-size European cities. It presents six scenarios for last-mile logistics in the year 2035 and identifies key themes policy makers should consider in addressing the uncertain future of last-mile logistics. The scenarios are developed using a Disaggregative Policy Delphi method. This method enables the identification of scenarios through a cluster analysis of quantitative and qualitative assessments of possible future developments in last mile city logistics by 26 participants in the expert panel. These expert are involved in last-mile logistics in the European cities Bremen, Groningen and Mechelen. Six scenarios have been identified: • Old Wild West - “No active government involvement and lack of incentives for innovation and cooperation.” • New Wild West - “Last-mile logistics is shaken up, with high levels of innovation but low regard for sustainability.” • New Cool Collective - “Shared beliefs and a shared course of action lead to sustainable last-mile logistics.” • Revolution By Design - “Sustainability in last-mile logistics is reached at the hand of local authorities.” • Thriving, Individually - “A mix of restrictive and facilitative policies spur technological innovation but result in limited cooperation between stakeholders.” • Good Intentions Abound - “High levels of government initiative amidst low stakeholder cooperation and low market innovation.” Comparing the scenarios results in three main overarching conclusions: 1) Logistics remains an integral part of inner cities. Despite changes in where and how logistics are operated, last-mile logistics processes themselves will remain “a fact of city life”, omnipresent and closely interwoven with the urban. 2) Local governments take a more active role in setting direction for last mile logistics development. Their role is considered essential in foster cooperation and sustainability with help of legal standards, access restrictions, facilitation of experiments and partnerships with private initiatives. Logistics operations are still mostly up to the market. 3) A transition towards more sustainable city logistics is not a given. Substantial barriers are identified. Enabling pathways to sustainable last mile logistics requires a strong vision and policy implementation by local governments, societal pressure on reducing environmental impact and improving livability in order to foster cooperation between stakeholders, and the introduction of new technology and business models that embrace sustainability as their main principle.

In this booklet, six scenarios are formulated for last-mile logistics in the year 2035 with a focus on three themes: the level of cooperation between logistics stakeholders, the level of technological innovation, and the role of local authorities in shaping a sustainable future for lastmile logistics.

This provisional trend report discusses the potential changes in last-mile city logistics up until 2035. Its aim is to make sense of the possible developments ahead, rather than to predict the future of city logistics. The exploration is structured along various decisive themes for the sector, such as transportation, accessibility, cooperation, regulation and innovation. Building upon the expertise and expectations of local logistics stakeholders from sustainable logistics in the ULaaDS lighthouse cities - Bremen (Germany), Groningen (The Netherlands), and Mechelen (Belgium), major trends and likely developments are identified. The report aims to contribute to knowledge on zero emissions city logistics and forms the basis for future scenario creation and sustainable urban logistics policy assessment. The analysis shows that major changes are anticipated between now and 2035. Stakeholders almost unanimously expect that:  Sustainable modes of transport will be dominant, due to growing shares of emission free vehicles and the use of cargo bikes.  New delivery models, such as urban consolidation centres, micro hubs and parcel lockers, will have a structural function in the organization of urban freight flows.  Today’s large courier, express and parcel service players will consolidate their market dominance, but that up to 30% of the parcel delivery market will be handled by new players. Big tech companies and innovative start-ups are expected to be the main disruptors, forcing other players to adapt and further innovate.  Local governments will have an active role in the transition towards sustainable urban logistics through a combination of restrictive and facilitative policies. On other potential changes, such as autonomous vehicles, resource cooperation, and data sharing, the stakeholder groups have more diverse expectations. Despite the fact that major changes are expected, stakeholders also indicate that the lack of critical pre-conditions, societal acceptance, investment capacity, and/or a lack of knowledge may hold urban logistics innovations behind. The expected active role of local governments is another remarkable finding. Typically, the urban logistics sector is one in which private actors are leading and governmental interventions are limited. Recently, (local) governments started to take a more active role in pursuing more sustainable urban logistics, exemplified by the investigated lighthouse cities. It is therefore relevant to note that the participating stakeholders consider an active role of city administrations self-evident, for instance in the regulation of transport modes, city access, and the implementation of parcel lockers. Effective public policies are however threatened by local governments’ limited knowledge of logistics processes and practical implications of policies, a lack of alignment of policies and regulations between cities, and lack of clear and stable policy frameworks. These challenges require capacity building between governments themselves and between governments and local logistics stakeholders, through the exchange of knowledge, experiences and new developments.

Fundamentele onzekerheden in ruimtelijke ontwikkelingsprocessen vormen een uitdaging voor planologen. In contrast met andere onzekerheden kunnen fundamentele onzekerheden niet worden weggenomen door meer kennis of betere informatie. Dit betekent dat planologen beperkt regie kunnen voeren over de ontwikkelingspaden van wijken, steden en regio’s. Daarom is er behoefte aan planningsbenaderingen die minder nadruk leggen op het beheersen van ontwikkelingspaden en meer zijn gericht op het versterken van de capaciteit van gebieden om in te spelen op zowel verwachte als onverwachte veranderingen. In Why Planning Needs Complexity wordt onderzocht hoe planologen slim kunnen omgaan met fundamentele onzekerheden, in het bijzonder bij het begeleiden van urbane en peri-urbane transformaties. Vanuit het perspectief van complexiteit presenteert het proefschrift een dynamisch, tijdsgevoelig begrip van ruimtelijke transformaties dat de verwevenheid en veranderlijkheid van de onderliggende processen helpt duiden. Ondersteunt door verschillende case studies in Nederland en Europa verkent de publicatie een adaptieve planningsbenadering die het vermogen van gebieden om op deze dynamische processen in te spelen vergroot. Onderdeel van deze benadering zijn bijvoorbeeld plannen en regels die zo zijn opgesteld dat ze verschillende ontwikkelingspaden kunnen faciliteren. Daarnaast worden planologen uitgenodigd om naast de meer traditionele rol van expert of bemiddelaar te functioneren als ‘trendwatcher’, verbinder en ‘facilitator’.

How do we create an enhanced understanding of changing urban dynamics? What are the implications of acknowledging the self-organization capacity of cities for planning strategies? And how do we deal with the fundamental uncertainties that are related to a world in constant flux? These are some of the questions that fascinate members of AESOP’s Thematic Group on Complexity and Planning. The group aims to contribute to the creation and maintenance of a network of lecturers and researchers who are willing to explore and debate new develop- ments influencing both planning theory and practice in the light of complexity theories.