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Genome sequences from evolving infectious pathogens allow quantification of case introductions and local transmission dynamics. We sequenced 11,357 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes from Switzerland in 2020—the sixth largest effort globally. Using a representative subset of these data, we estimated viral introductions to Switzerland and their persistence over the course of 2020. We contrasted these estimates with simple null models representing the absence of certain public health measures. We show that Switzerland’s border closures decoupled case introductions from incidence in neighboring countries. Under a simple model, we estimate an 86 to 98% reduction in introductions during Switzerland’s strictest border closures. Furthermore, the Swiss 2020 partial lockdown roughly halved the time for sampled introductions to die out. Last, we quantified local transmission dynamics once introductions into Switzerland occurred using a phylodynamic model. We found that transmission slowed 35 to 63% upon outbreak detection in summer 2020 but not in fall. This finding may indicate successful contact tracing over summer before overburdening in fall. The study highlights the added value of genome sequencing data for understanding transmission dynamics.

A major challenge in understanding SARS-CoV-2 evolution is interpreting the antigenic and functional effects of emerging mutations in the viral spike protein. Here we describe a new deep mutational scanning platform based on non-replicative pseudotyped lentiviruses that directly quantifies how large numbers of spike mutations impact antibody neutralization and pseudovirus infection. We demonstrate this new platform by making libraries of the Omicron BA.1 and Delta spikes. These libraries each contain ~7000 distinct amino-acid mutations in the context of up to ~135,000 unique mutation combinations. We use these libraries to map escape mutations from neutralizing antibodies targeting the receptor binding domain, N-terminal domain, and S2 subunit of spike. Overall, this work establishes a high-throughput and safe approach to measure how ~105combinations of mutations affect antibody neutralization and spike-mediated infection. Notably, the platform described here can be extended to the entry proteins of many other viruses.

When two influenza viruses co-infect the same cell, they can exchange genome segments in a process known as reassortment. Reassortment is an important source of genetic diversity and is known to have been involved in the emergence of most pandemic influenza strains. However, because of the difficulty in identifying reassortment events from viral sequence data, little is known about their role in the evolution of the seasonal influenza viruses. Here we introduce TreeKnit, a method that infers ancestral reassortment graphs (ARG) from two segment trees. It is based on topological differences between trees, and proceeds in a greedy fashion by finding regions that are compatible in the two trees. Using simulated genealogies with reassortments, we show that TreeKnit performs well in a wide range of settings and that it is as accurate as a more principled bayesian method, while being orders of magnitude faster. Finally, we show that it is possible to use the inferred ARG to better resolve segment trees and to construct more informative visualizations of reassortments., PLoS Computational Biology, 18 (8), ISSN:1553-734X, ISSN:1553-7358

BackgroundWorldwide outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 and 2016 have caused serious respiratory and neurological disease.MethodsWe collected samples from several European countries during the 2018 out-break and determined 53 near full-length genome (‘whole genome’) sequences. These sequences were combined with 718 whole genome and 1,987 VP1-gene publicly available sequences.FindingsIn 2018, circulating strains clustered into multiple subgroups in the B3 and A2 subclades, with different phylogenetic origins. Clusters in subclade B3 emerged from strains circulating primarily in the US and Europe in 2016, though some had deeper roots linking to Asian strains, while clusters in A2 traced back to strains detected in East Asia in 2015-2016. In 2018, all sequences from the USA formed a distinct subgroup, containing only three non-US samples. Alongside the varied origins of seasonal strains, we found that diversification of these variants begins up to 18 months prior to the first diagnostic detection during a EV-D68 season. EV-D68 displays strong signs of continuous antigenic evolution and all 2018 A2 strains had novel patterns in the putative neutralizing epitopes in the BC- and DE-loops. The pattern in the BC-loop of the USA B3 subgroup had not been detected on that continent before. Patients with EV-D68 in subclade A2 were significantly older than patients with a B3 subclade virus. In contrast to other subclades, the age distribution of A2 is distinctly bimodal and was found primarily among children and in the elderly.InterpretationWe hypothesize that EV-D68’s rapid evolution of surface proteins, extensive diversity, and high rate of geographic mixing could be explained by substantial reinfection of adults.FundingUniversity of Basel and Swedish Foundation for Research and Development in Medical Microbiology

(JSH); Abstract The effective reproductive number Re is a key indicator of the growth of an epidemic. Since the start of the SARS- CoV- 2 pandemic, many methods and online dashboards have sprung up to monitor this number through time. However, these methods are not always thoroughly tested, correctly placed in time, or are overly confident during high incidence periods. Here, we present a method for timely estimation of Re, applied to COVID- 19 epidemic data from 170 countries. We thoroughly evaluate the method on simulated data, and present an intuitive web interface for interactive data exploration. We show that, in early 2020, in the majority of countries the estimated Re dropped below 1 only after the introduction of major non-pharmaceutical interventions. For Europe the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions was broadly associated with reductions in the estimated Re. Globally though, relaxing non-pharmaceutical interventions had more varied effects on subsequent Re estimates. Our framework is useful to inform governments and the general public on the status of epidemics in their country, and is used as the official source of Re estimates for SARS- CoV- 2 in Switzerland. It further allows detailed comparison between countries and in relation to covariates such as implemented public health policies, mobility, behaviour, or weather data., eLife, 11, ISSN:2050-084X

Infecting large portions of the global population, seasonal influenza is a major burden on societies around the globe. While the global source sink dynamics of the different seasonal influenza viruses have been studied intensively, its local spread remains less clear. In order to improve our understanding of how influenza is transmitted on a city scale, we collected an extremely densely sampled set of influenza sequences alongside patient metadata. To do so, we sequenced influenza viruses isolated from patients of two different hospitals, as well as private practitioners in Basel, Switzerland during the 2016/2017 influenza season. The genetic sequences reveal that repeated introductions into the city drove the influenza season. We then reconstruct how the effective reproduction number changed over the course of the season. While we did not find that transmission dynamics in Basel correlate with humidity or school closures, we did find some evidence that it may positively correlated with temperature. Alongside the genetic sequence data that allows us to see how individual cases are connected, we gathered patient information, such as the age or household status. Zooming into the local transmission outbreaks suggests that the elderly were to a large extent infected within their own transmission network. In the remaining transmission network, our analyses suggest that school-aged children likely play a more central role than pre-school aged children. These patterns will be valuable to plan interventions combating the spread of respiratory diseases within cities given that similar patterns are observed for other influenza seasons and cities., Author Summary As shown with the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, respiratory diseases can quickly spread around the globe. While it can be important to understand how diseases spread around the globe, local spread is most often the main driver of novel infections of respiratory diseases such as SARS-CoV-2 or influenza. We here use genetic sequence data alongside patient information to better understand what drives the local spread of influenza by looking at the 2016/2017 influenza season in Basel, Switzerland as an example. The genetic sequence data allows us to reconstruct how the transmission dynamics changed over the course of the season, which we then compare to trends in humidity and temperature and times when schools were open or closed. Additionally, the genetic sequence data allows us to see how individual cases are connected. Using patient information, such as age and household status our analyses suggest that the elderly mainly transmit within their own transmission network. Additionally, they suggest that school aged children, but not necessarily pre-school aged children are important drivers of the local spread of influenza.

Seasonal influenza virus A/H3N2 is a major cause of death globally. Vaccination remains the most effective preventative. Rapid mutation of hemagglutinin allows viruses to escape adaptive immunity. This antigenic drift necessitates regular vaccine updates. Effective vaccine strains need to represent H3N2 populations circulating one year after strain selection. Experts select strains based on experimental measurements of antigenic drift and predictions made by models from hemagglutinin sequences. We developed a novel influenza forecasting framework that integrates phenotypic measures of antigenic drift and functional constraint with previously published sequence-only fitness estimates. Forecasts informed by phenotypic measures of antigenic drift consistently outperformed previous sequence-only estimates, while sequence-only estimates of functional constraint surpassed more comprehensive experimentally-informed estimates. Importantly, the best models integrated estimates of both functional constraint and either antigenic drift phenotypes or recent population growth., eLife digest Vaccination is the best protection against seasonal flu. It teaches the immune system what the flu virus looks like, preparing it to fight off an infection. But the flu virus changes its molecular appearance every year, escaping the immune defences learnt the year before. So, every year, the vaccine needs updating. Since it takes almost a year to design and make a new flu vaccine, researchers need to be able to predict what flu viruses will look like in the future. Currently, this prediction relies on experiments that assess the molecular appearance of flu viruses, a complex and slow approach. One alternative is to examine the virus's genetic code. Mathematical models try to predict which genetic changes might alter the appearance of a flu virus, saving the cost of performing specialised experiments. Recent research has shown that these models can make good predictions, but including experimental measures of the virus’ appearance could improve them even further. This could help the model to work out which genetic changes are likely to be beneficial to the virus, and which are not. To find out whether experimental data improves model predictions, Huddleston et al. designed a new forecasting tool which used 25 years of historical data from past flu seasons. Each forecast predicted what the virus population might look like the next year using the previous year's genetic code, experimental data, or both. Huddleston et al. then compared the predictions with the historical data to find the most useful data types. This showed that the best predictions combined changes from the virus's genetic code with experimental measures of its appearance. This new forecasting tool is open source, allowing teams across the world to start using it to improve their predictions straight away. Seasonal flu infects between 5 and 15% of the world's population every year, causing between quarter of a million and half a million deaths. Better predictions could lead to better flu vaccines and fewer illnesses and deaths.

The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused large outbreaks around the world and every heavily affected community has experienced a substantial strain on the health care system and a high death toll. Communities therefore have to monitor the incidence of COVID-19 carefully and attempt to project the demand for health care. To enable such projections, we have developed an interactive web application that simulates an age-structured SEIR model with separate compartments for severely and critically ill patients. The tool allows the users to modify most parameters of the model, including age specific assumptions on severity. Infection control and mitigation measures that reduce transmission can be specified, as well as age-group specific isolation.The simulation of the model runs entirely on the client side in the browser; all parameter settings and results of the simulation can be exported for further downstream analysis. The tool is available at covid19-scenarios.org and the source code atgithub.com/neherlab/covid19_scenarios.

Puccinia striiformisf. sp.tritici(Pst) is the causative agent of wheat yellow rust disease, affecting wheat production worldwide. In order to effectively manage this disease, it is important to monitor the genotypes present through surveillance programs. Additionally, the use of public, open source tools such as the Nextstrain toolkit allow for rapid and efficient sharing of data from surveillance programmes. Here we present a Nextstrain instance forPst, which will be a valuable resource for understanding and tracking the distribution of specific genotypes of this important pathogen.

A series of unfortunate events The history of how severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread around the planet has been far from clear. Several narratives have been propagated by social media and, in some cases, national policies were forged in response. Now that many thousands of virus sequences are available, two studies analyzed some of the key early events in the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Bedford et al. found that the virus arrived in Washington state in late January or early February. The viral genome from the first case detected had mutations similar to those found in Chinese samples and rapidly spread and dominated subsequent undetected community transmission. The other viruses detected had origins in Europe. Worobey et al. found that early introductions into Germany and the west coast of the United States were extinguished by vigorous public health efforts, but these successes were largely unrecognized. Unfortunately, several major travel events occurred in February, including repatriations from China, with lax public health follow-up. Serial, independent introductions triggered the major outbreaks in the United States and Europe that still hold us in the grip of control measures. Science, this issue p. 571, p. 564, The first case of SARS-CoV-2 in Washington state occurred at the end of January and, by going undetected, sparked community transmission., After its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late November or early December 2019, the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus rapidly spread globally. Genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 allows the reconstruction of its transmission history, although this is contingent on sampling. We analyzed 453 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected between 20 February and 15 March 2020 from infected patients in Washington state in the United States. We find that most SARS-CoV-2 infections sampled during this time derive from a single introduction in late January or early February 2020, which subsequently spread locally before active community surveillance was implemented.

With two-thirds of the global population projected to be living in urban areas by 2050, understanding the transmission patterns of viral pathogens within cities is crucial for effective prevention strategies. Here, in unprecedented spatial resolution, we analysed the socioeconomic determinants of influenza transmission in a European city. We combined geographical and epidemiological data with whole genome sequencing of influenza viruses at the scale of urban quarters and statistical blocks, the smallest geographic subdivisions within a city. We observed annually re-occurring geographic clusters of influenza incidences, mainly associated with net income, and independent of population density and living space. Vaccination against influenza was also mainly associated with household income and was linked to the likelihood of influenza-like illness within an urban quarter. Transmissions patterns within and between quarters were complex. High-resolution city-level epidemiological studies combined with social science surveys such as this will be essential for understanding seasonal and pandemic transmission chains and delivering tailored public health information and vaccination programs at the municipal level.

Summary The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States in January 2020, with subsequent COVID-19 outbreaks detected in all 50 states by early March. To uncover the sources of SARS-CoV-2 introductions and patterns of spread within the United States, we sequenced nine viral genomes from early reported COVID-19 patients in Connecticut. Our phylogenetic analysis places the majority of these genomes with viruses sequenced from Washington state. By coupling our genomic data with domestic and international travel patterns, we show that early SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Connecticut was likely driven by domestic introductions. Moreover, the risk of domestic importation to Connecticut exceeded that of international importation by mid-March regardless of our estimated effects of federal travel restrictions. This study provides evidence of widespread sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within the United States and highlights the critical need for local surveillance., Graphical Abstract, Highlights • Connecticut’s COVID-19 outbreak resulted from multiple domestic virus introductions • SARS-CoV-2 genomic data indicate that coast-to-coast spread occurred in the United States • Risk of introduction by domestic air travel exceeded international travel in March • Restrictions on international travel did not significantly alter risk estimates, Using genomics and air travel information, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States from coast to coast is shown to be more a consequence of domestic introductions than of international travel.

Switzerland is among the countries with the highest number of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) cases per capita in the world. There are likely many people with undetected SARS-CoV-2 infection because testing efforts are currently not detecting all infected people, including some with clinical disease compatible with COVID-19. Testing on its own will not stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Testing is part of a strategy. The World Health Organization recommends a combination of measures: rapid diagnosis and immediate isolation of cases, rigorous tracking and precautionary self-isolation of close contacts. In this article, we explain why the testing strategy in Switzerland should be strengthened urgently, as a core component of a combination approach to control COVID-19.

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first detected in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly since December 2019, causing more than 80,000 confirmed infections and 2,700 fatalities (as of Feb 27, 2020). Imported cases and transmission clusters of various sizes have been reported globally suggesting a pandemic is likely.Here, we explore how seasonal variation in transmissibility could modulate a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Data from routine diagnostics show a strong and consistent seasonal variation of the four endemic coronaviruses (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43) and we parameterize our model for SARS-CoV-2 using these data. The model allows for many subpopulations of different size with variable parameters. Simulations of different scenarios show that plausible parameters result in a small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a larger peak in winter 2020/2021. Variation in transmission and migration rates can result in substantial variation in prevalence between regions.While the uncertainty in parameters is large, the scenarios we explore show that transient reductions in the incidence rate might be due to a combination of seasonal variation and infection control efforts but do not necessarily mean the epidemic is contained. Seasonal forcing on SARS-CoV-2 should thus be taken into account in the further monitoring of the global transmission. The likely aggregated effect of seasonal variation, infection control measures, and transmission rate variation is a prolonged pandemic wave with lower prevalence at any given time, thereby providing a window of opportunity for better preparation of health care systems.

Natural selection imposes a complex filter on which variants persist in a population resulting in evolutionary patterns that vary greatly along the genome. Some sites evolve close to neutrally, while others are highly conserved, allow only specific states, or only change in concert with other sites. On one hand, such constraints on sequence evolution can be to infer biological function, one the other hand they need to be accounted for in phylogenetic reconstruction. Phylogenetic models often account for this complexity by partitioning sites into a small number of discrete classes with different rates and/or state preferences. Appropriate model complexity is typically determined by model selection procedures. Here, we present an efficient algorithm to estimate more complex models that allow for different preferences at every site and explore the accuracy at which such models can be estimated from simulated data. Our iterative approximate maximum likelihood scheme uses information in the data efficiently and accurately estimates site-specific preferences from large data sets with moderately diverged sequences and known topology. However, the joint estimation of site-specific rates, and site-specific preferences, and phylogenetic branch length can suffer from identifiability problems, while ignoring variation in preferences across sites results in branch length underestimates. Site-specific preferences estimated from large HIV pol alignments show qualitative concordance with intra-host estimates of fitness costs. Analysis of these substitution models suggests near saturation of divergence after a few hundred years. Such saturation can explain the inability to infer deep divergence times of HIV and SIVs using molecular clock approaches and time-dependent rate estimates.

Summary Understanding the spread and evolution of pathogens is important for effective public health measures and surveillance. Nextstrain consists of a database of viral genomes, a bioinformatics pipeline for phylodynamics analysis, and an interactive visualization platform. Together these present a real-time view into the evolution and spread of a range of viral pathogens of high public health importance. The visualization integrates sequence data with other data types such as geographic information, serology, or host species. Nextstrain compiles our current understanding into a single accessible location, open to health professionals, epidemiologists, virologists and the public alike. Availability and implementation All code (predominantly JavaScript and Python) is freely available from github.com/nextstrain and the web-application is available at nextstrain.org.

Microbes and infection, 22 (1), ISSN:1286-4579

Rapidly evolving pathogens like influenza viruses can persist by accumulating antigenic novelty fast enough to evade the adaptive immunity of the host population, yet without continuous accumulation of genetic diversity. This dynamical state is often compared to the Red Queen evolving as fast as it can just to maintain its foothold in the host population: Accumulation of antigenic novelty is balanced by the build-up of host immunity. Such Red Queen States (RQS) of continuous adaptation in large rapidly mutating populations are well understood in terms of Traveling Wave (TW) theories of population genetics. Here we shall make explicit the mapping of the established Multi-strain Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model onto the TW theory and demonstrate that a pathogen can persist in RQS if cross-immunity is long-ranged and its population size is large populations allowing for rapid adaptation. We then investigate the stability of this state focusing on the rate of extinction and the rate of "speciation" defined as antigenic divergence of viral strains beyond the range of cross-inhibition. RQS states are transient, but in a certain range of evolutionary parameters can exist for the time long compared to the typical time to the most recent common ancestor ($T_{MRCA}$). In this range the steady TW is unstable and the antigenic advance of the lead strains relative to the typical co-circulating viruses tends to oscillate. This results in large fluctuations in prevalence that facilitate extinction. We shall demonstrate that the rate of TW fission into antigenically uncoupled viral populations is related to fluctuations of $T_{MRCA}$ and construct a "phase diagram" identifying different regimes of viral phylodynamics as a function of evolutionary parameters., 15 pages, 9 figures, 1 table

Shared ancestry among individuals results in correlated traits and these dependencies need to be accounted for in probabilistic inference. In strictly asexual populations, the covariances have a particularly simple block-like structure imposed by the phylogenetic tree. Ho and Ane showed how this block-like structure can be exploited to efficiently invert covariance matrices and fit linear models on trees in linear time. In this short note, I use these methods to estimate evolutionary rates and to find the root of the tree that optimizes the time-divergence relationship. The algorithm is implemented in TreeTime and can be used to estimate evolutionary rates and their confidence intervals with computational cost scaling linearly in the number of tips.

Summary Crop disease outbreaks are often associated with clonal expansions of single pathogenic lineages. To determine whether similar boom-and-bust scenarios hold for wild pathosystems, we carried out a multi-year, multi-site survey of Pseudomonas in its natural host Arabidopsis thaliana. The most common Pseudomonas lineage corresponded to a ubiquitous pathogenic clade. Sequencing of 1,524 genomes revealed this lineage to have diversified approximately 300,000 years ago, containing dozens of genetically identifiable pathogenic sublineages. There is differentiation at the level of both gene content and disease phenotype, although the differentiation may not provide fitness advantages to specific sublineages. The coexistence of sublineages indicates that in contrast to crop systems, no single strain has been able to overtake the studied A. thaliana populations in the recent past. Our results suggest that selective pressures acting on a plant pathogen in wild hosts are likely to be much more complex than those in agricultural systems., Graphical Abstract, Highlights • Wild A. thaliana is regularly colonized by a single Pseudomonas OTU • Strains within this OTU diverged from one another at least 300,000 years ago • Many strains can cause disease and are classified as pathogenic • In contrast to agriculture, no single pathogenic strain dominates host populations, Disease outbreaks in agriculture are often associated with clonal expansions of single pathogenic lineages. In this study, Karasov et al. show that in populations of a wild plant, no single lineage of an abundant pathogen takes over the host population. Genetic and species diversity may prevent clonal expansions in nature.

The rapid development of sequencing technologies has to led to an explosion of pathogen sequence data, which are increasingly collected as part of routine surveillance or clinical diagnostics. In public health, sequence data are used to reconstruct the evolution of pathogens, to anticipate future spread, and to target interventions. In clinical settings, whole-genome sequencing can identify pathogens at the strain level, can be used to predict phenotypes such as drug resistance and virulence, and can inform treatment by linking closely related cases. While sequencing has become cheaper, the analysis of sequence data has become an important bottleneck. Deriving interpretable and actionable results for a large variety of pathogens, each with its own complexity, from continuously updated data is a daunting task that requires flexible bioinformatic workflows and dissemination platforms. Here, we review recent developments in real-time analyses of pathogen sequence data, with a particular focus on the visualization and integration of sequence and phenotype data.

HIV has been reported to be cytotoxic in vitro and in lymph node infection models. Using a computational approach, we found that partial inhibition of transmissions of multiple virions per cell could lead to increased numbers of live infected cells. If the number of viral DNA copies remains above one after inhibition, then eliminating the surplus viral copies reduces cell death. Using a cell line, we observed increased numbers of live infected cells when infection was partially inhibited with the antiretroviral efavirenz or neutralizing antibody. We then used efavirenz at concentrations reported in lymph nodes to inhibit lymph node infection by partially resistant HIV mutants. We observed more live infected lymph node cells, but with fewer HIV DNA copies per cell, relative to no drug. Hence, counterintuitively, limited attenuation of HIV transmission per cell may increase live infected cell numbers in environments where the force of infection is high., eLife digest The HIVvirus infects cells of the immune system. Once inside, it hijacks the cellular molecular machineries to make more copies of itself, which are then transmitted to new host cells. HIV eventually kills most cells it infects, either in the steps leading to the infection of the cell, or after the cell is already producing virus. HIV can spread between cells in two ways, known as cell-free or cell-to-cell. In the first, individual viruses are released from infected cells and move randomly through the body in the hope of finding new cells to infect. In the second, infected cells interact directly with uninfected cells. The second method is often much more successful at infecting new cells since they are exposed to multiple virus particles. HIV infections can be controlled by using combinations of antiretroviral drugs, such as efavirenz, to prevent the virus from making more of itself. With a high enough dose, the drugs can in theory completely stop HIV infections, unless the virus becomes resistant to treatment. However, some patients continue to use these drugs even after the virus they are infected with develops resistance. It is not clear what effect taking ineffective, or partially effective, drugs has on how HIV progresses. Using efavirenz, Jackson, Hunter et al. partially limited the spread of HIV between human cells grown in the laboratory. The experiments mirrored the situation where a partially resistant HIV strain spreads through the body. The results show that the success of cell-free infection is reduced as drug dose increases. Yet paradoxically, in cell-to-cell infection, the presence of drug caused more cells to become infected. This can be explained by the fact that, in cell-to-cell spread, each cell is exposed to multiple copies of the virus. The drug dose reduced the number of viral copies per cell without stopping the virus from infecting completely. The reduced number of viral copies per cell made it more likely that infected cells would survive the infection long enough to produce virus particles themselves. Viruses that can kill cells, such as HIV, must balance the need to make more of themselves against the speed that they kill their host cell to maximize the number of infected cells. If transmission between cells is too effective and too many virus particles are delivered to the new cell, the virus may not manage to infect new hosts before killing the old ones. These findings highlight this delicate balance. They also indicate a potential issue in using drugs to treat partially resistant virus strains. Without care, these treatments could increase the number of infected cells in the body, potentially worsening the effects of living with HIV.

Mutations that accumulate in the genome of cells or viruses can be used to infer their evolutionary history. In the case of rapidly evolving organisms, genomes can reveal their detailed spatiotemporal spread. Such phylodynamic analyses are particularly useful to understand the epidemiology of rapidly evolving viral pathogens. As the number of genome sequences available for different pathogens has increased dramatically over the last years, phylodynamic analysis with traditional methods becomes challenging as these methods scale poorly with growing datasets. Here, we present TreeTime, a Python-based framework for phylodynamic analysis using an approximate Maximum Likelihood approach. TreeTime can estimate ancestral states, infer evolution models, reroot trees to maximize temporal signals, estimate molecular clock phylogenies and population size histories. The runtime of TreeTime scales linearly with dataset size.

Mutations that accumulate in the genome of replicating biological organisms can be used to infer their evolutionary history. In the case of measurably evolving organisms genomes often reveal their detailed spatiotemporal spread. Such phylodynamic analyses are particularly useful to understand the epidemiology of rapidly evolving viral pathogens. The number of genome sequences available for different pathogens, however, has increased dramatically over the last couple of years and traditional methods for phylodynamic analysis scale poorly with growing data sets. Here, we present TreeTime, a Python based framework for phylodynamic analysis using an approximate Maximum Likelihood approach. TreeTime can estimate ancestral states, infer evolution models, reroot trees to maximize temporal signals, estimate molecular clock phylogenies and population size histories. The run time of TreeTime scales linearly with data set size.

Summary: Seasonal influenza viruses evolve rapidly, allowing them to evade immunity in their human hosts and reinfect previously infected individuals. Similarly, vaccines against seasonal influenza need to be updated frequently to protect against an evolving virus population. We have thus developed a processing pipeline and browser-based visualization that allows convenient exploration and analysis of the most recent influenza virus sequence data. This web-application displays a phylogenetic tree that can be decorated with additional information such as the viral genotype at specific sites, sampling location and derived statistics that have been shown to be predictive of future virus dynamics. In addition, mutation, genotype and clade frequency trajectories are calculated and displayed. Availability and implementation: Python and Javascript source code is freely available from https://github.com/blab/nextflu, while the web-application is live at http://nextflu.org. Contact: tbedford@fredhutch.org

Colistin is a last resort antibiotic commonly used against multidrug-resistant strains ofPseudomonas aeruginosa. To investigate the potential forin-situevolution of resistance against colistin and map the molecular targets of colistin resistance, we exposed twoP. aeruginosaisolates to colistin using a continuous culture device known as morbidostat. Colistin resistance emerged within two weeks along with highly stereotypic yet strain specific mutation patterns. The majority of mutations hit theprmABtwo component signaling system and genes involved in lipopolysaccharide synthesis, includinglpxC,pmrE, andmigA. In seven out of 18 cultures, we observed mutations inmutSalong with a mutator phenotype that seemed to facilitate resistance evolution.

This is not meant as a comprehensive report of recent influenza evolution, but is instead intended as particular observations that may be of relevance. Please also note that observed patterns reflect the GISAID database and may not be entirely representative of underlying dynamics. All analyses are based on the nextflu pipeline with continual updates posted to nextflu.org. We arrive at the following results: H3N2: In H3N2, clade 3c2.a has continued to diversify genetically with complicated and rapid dynamics of different subclades. This diversification is not reflected in serological data that shows only minor to moderate antigenic evolution. Nevertheless, the highly parallel mutation patterns and the rapid rise and fall of clades suggests competitive dynamics of phenotypically distinct viruses. H1N1pdm: Very few H1N1pdm viruses have been observed in recent months. The dominant clade continues to be 6b.1 and there is little amino acid sequence variation within HA. The only notable subclade that has been growing recently is the clade bearing HA1:R205K/S183P. This clade is dominated by North American viruses and we see no evidence that this clade has a particular competitive advantage. B/Vic: Clade 1A has continued to dominate and mutation 117V has all but taken over the global population. The rise of this mutation was fairly gradual and we have no evidence that it is associated with antigenic change or other benefit to the virus. B/Yam: Clade 3 has continued to dominate. Within clade 3, a clade with mutation HA1:251V is globally at frequency of about 80% throughout 2016. Within this clade, mutation 211R is at 25% frequency. In addition, a clade without prominent amino acid mutations has been rising throughout 2016.

Mutation rates and fitness costs of deleterious mutations are difficult to measurein vivobut essential for a quantitative understanding of evolution. Using whole genome deep sequencing data from longitudinal samples during untreated HIV-1 infection, we estimated mutation rates and fitness costs in HIV-1 from the temporal dynamics of genetic variation. At approximately neutral sites, mutations accumulate with a rate of 1.2 x 10-5per site per day, in agreement with the rate measured in cell cultures. The rate from G to A is largest, followed by the other transitions C to T, T to C, and A to G, while transversions are more rare. At non-neutral sites, most mutations reduce virus replication; using a model of mutation selection balance, we estimated the fitness cost of mutations at every site in the HIV-1 genome. About half of all nonsynonymous mutations have large fitness costs (greater than 10%), while most synonymous mutations have costs below 1%. The cost of synonymous mutations is especially low in most of gag and pol, while much higher costs are observed in important RNA structures and regulatory regions. The intrapatient fitness cost estimates are consistent across multiple patients, suggesting that the deleterious part of the fitness landscape is universal and explains a large fraction of global HIV-1 group M diversity.

Human seasonal influenza viruses evolve rapidly, enabling the virus population to evade immunity and re-infect previously infected individuals. Antigenic properties are largely determined by the surface glycoprotein hemagglutinin (HA) and amino acid substitutions at exposed epitope sites in HA mediate loss of recognition by antibodies. Here, we show that antigenic differences measured through serological assay data are well described by a sum of antigenic changes along the path connecting viruses in a phylogenetic tree. This mapping onto the tree allows prediction of antigenicity from HA sequence data alone. The mapping can further be used to make predictions about the makeup of the future seasonal influenza virus population, and we compare predictions between models with serological and sequence data. To make timely model output readily available, we developed a web browser based application that visualizes antigenic data on a continuously updated phylogeny., visualization available at http://HI.nextflu.org

Many microbial populations rapidly adapt to changing environments with multiple variants competing for survival. To quantify such complex evolutionary dynamics in vivo, time resolved and genome wide data including rare variants are essential. We performed whole-genome deep sequencing of HIV-1 populations in 9 untreated patients, with 6-12 longitudinal samples per patient spanning 5-8 years of infection. The data can be accessed and explored via an interactive web application. We show that patterns of minor diversity are reproducible between patients and mirror global HIV-1 diversity, suggesting a universal landscape of fitness costs that control diversity. Reversions towards the ancestral HIV-1 sequence are observed throughout infection and account for almost one third of all sequence changes. Reversion rates depend strongly on conservation. Frequent recombination limits linkage disequilibrium to about 100bp in most of the genome, but strong hitch-hiking due to short range linkage limits diversity. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11282.001, eLife digest HIV was transmitted from apes to humans multiple times before the virus began to spread among humans some time in the early 20th century. The virus is now found around the globe and has evolved into several different subtypes. Also, HIV continues to evolve inside each infected individual so that different variations of the virus are often present in the same person at any given time. When a person initially becomes infected, immune cells called killer T-cells seek out and destroy infected cells. However, HIV quickly acquires genetic mutations that allow it to escape the immune system and multiply in the body. There is a cost to this evasion strategy: the mutant forms of the virus often don’t multiply as rapidly as the variant that first infected the individual. This may explain why the virus often mutates back to its previous form in newly infected people. But many questions remain about how these pressures influence the evolution of the virus in individuals and in populations over time. Now, Zanini et al. have sequenced the genomes of HIV samples collected from nine people with HIV in Sweden over the course of five to eight years. These individuals were diagnosed between 1990 and 2003 – when HIV medications were not as widely used as they are now – and did not receive any treatment during the course of the study. Therefore, the study provides a rare opportunity to look at how HIV evolves in the absence of drugs that target the virus. Zanini et al. sequenced the entire genetic code of each form of the virus identified in the samples. The data show that HIV follows predictable patterns of evolution within individuals as well as across human populations. Mutations happen frequently all over the HIV genome. However, the mutant viruses often revert to a common or “optimal” form of the virus throughout the course of infection. This suggests that there is a tradeoff between the benefits of acquiring new mutations and maintaining a set of traits that have enabled the virus to spread so successfully in humans. To make it easier for other researchers to explore the data, Zanini et al. created a web application that allows others to access and create visual representations of viral evolution. Together these findings suggest that it will be possible to achieve a fuller understanding of RNA virus evolution that integrates the molecular biology of the virus and the immune response of the host with the evolutionary changes. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11282.002

Pervasive natural selection can strongly influence observed patterns of genetic variation, but these effects remain poorly understood when multiple selected variants segregate in nearby regions of the genome. Classical population genetics fails to account for interference between linked mutations, which grows increasingly severe as the density of selected polymorphisms increases. Here, we describe a simple limit that emerges when interference is common, in which the fitness effects of individual mutations play a relatively minor role. Instead, similar to models of quantitative genetics, molecular evolution is determined by the variance in fitness within the population, defined over an effectively asexual segment of the genome (a “linkage block”). We exploit this insensitivity in a new “coarse-grained” coalescent framework, which approximates the effects of many weakly selected mutations with a smaller number of strongly selected mutations that create the same variance in fitness. This approximation generates accurate and efficient predictions for silent site variability when interference is common. However, these results suggest that there is reduced power to resolve individual selection pressures when interference is sufficiently widespread, since a broad range of parameters possess nearly identical patterns of silent site variability., Author Summary A central goal of evolutionary genetics is to understand how natural selection influences DNA sequence variability. Yet while empirical studies have uncovered significant evidence for selection in many natural populations, a rigorous characterization of these selection pressures has so far been difficult to achieve. The problem is that when selection acts on linked loci, it introduces correlations along the genome that are difficult to disentangle. These “interference” effects have been extensively studied in simulation, but theory still struggles to account for interference in predicted patterns of sequence variability, which limits the quantitative conclusions that can be drawn from modern sequence data. Here, we show that in spite of this complexity, simple behavior emerges in the limit that interference is common. Patterns of molecular evolution depend on the variance in fitness within the population, and are only weakly influenced by the fitness effects of individual mutations. We leverage this “emergent simplicity” to establish a new framework for predicting genetic diversity in these populations. Our results have important practical implications for the interpretation of natural sequence variability, particularly in regions of low recombination, and suggest an inherent “resolution limit” for the quantitative inference of selection pressures from sequence polymorphism data.

To learn about the past from a sample of genomic sequences, one needs to understand how evolutionary processes shape genetic diversity. Most population genetic inference is based on frameworks assuming adaptive evolution is rare. But if positive selection operates on many loci simultaneously, as has recently been suggested for many species including animals such as flies, a different approach is necessary. In this review, I discuss recent progress in characterizing and understanding evolution in rapidly adapting populations where random associations of mutations with genetic backgrounds of different fitness, i.e., genetic draft, dominate over genetic drift. As a result, neutral genetic diversity depends weakly on population size, but strongly on the rate of adaptation or more generally the variance in fitness. Coalescent processes with multiple mergers, rather than Kingman's coalescent, are appropriate genealogical models for rapidly adapting populations with important implications for population genetic inference., Comment: supplementary illustrations and scripts are available at http://webdav.tuebingen.mpg.de/interference/

Intrapatient evolution of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is driven by the adaptive immune system resulting in rapid change of HIV-1 proteins. When cytotoxic CD8 + T cells or neutralizing antibodies target a new epitope, the virus often escapes via nonsynonymous mutations that impair recognition. Synonymous mutations do not affect this interplay and are often assumed to be neutral. We test this assumption by tracking synonymous mutations in longitudinal intrapatient data from the C2-V5 part of the env gene. We find that most synonymous variants are lost even though they often reach high frequencies in the viral population, suggesting a cost to the virus. Using published data from SHAPE (selective 2′-hydroxyl acylation analyzed by primer extension) assays, we find that synonymous mutations that disrupt base pairs in RNA stems flanking the variable loops of gp120 are more likely to be lost than other synonymous changes: these RNA hairpins might be important for HIV-1. Computational modeling indicates that, to be consistent with the data, a large fraction of synonymous mutations in this genomic region need to be deleterious with a cost on the order of 0.002 per day. This weak selection against synonymous substitutions does not result in a strong pattern of conservation in cross-sectional data but slows down the rate of evolution considerably. Our findings are consistent with the notion that large-scale patterns of RNA structure are functionally relevant, whereas the precise base pairing pattern is not.

In sexual populations, selection operates neither on the whole genome, which is repeatedly taken apart and reassembled by recombination, nor on individual alleles that are tightly linked to the chromosomal neighborhood. The resulting interference between linked alleles reduces the efficiency of selection and distorts patterns of genetic diversity. Inference of evolutionary history from diversity shaped by linked selection requires an understanding of these patterns. Here, we present a simple but powerful scaling analysis identifying the unit of selection as the genomic "linkage block" with a characteristic length, , determined in a self-consistent manner by the condition that the rate of recombination within the block is comparable to the fitness differences between different alleles of the block. We find that an asexual model with the strength of selection tuned to that of the linkage block provides an excellent description of genetic diversity and the site frequency spectra compared with computer simulations. This linkage block approximation is accurate for the entire spectrum of strength of selection and is particularly powerful in scenarios with many weakly selected loci. The latter limit allows us to characterize coalescence, genetic diversity, and the speed of adaptation in the infinitesimal model of quantitative genetics.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1 or simply HIV) induces a persistent infection, which in the absence of treatment leads to AIDS and death in almost all infected individuals. HIV infection elicits a vigorous immune response starting about 2-3 weeks post infection that can lower the amount of virus in the body, but which cannot eradicate the virus. How HIV establishes a chronic infection in the face of a strong immune response remains poorly understood. It has been shown that HIV is able to rapidly change its proteins via mutation to evade recognition by virus-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs). Typically, an HIV-infected patient will generate 4-12 CTL responses specific for parts of viral proteins called epitopes. Such CTL responses lead to strong selective pressure to change the viral sequences encoding these epitopes so as to avoid CTL recognition. Indeed, the viral population "escapes" from about half of the CTL responses by mutation in the first year. Here we review experimental data on HIV evolution in response to CTL pressure, mathematical models developed to explain this evolution, and highlight problems associated with the data and previous modeling efforts. We show that estimates of the strength of the epitope-specific CTL response depend on the method used to fit models to experimental data and on the assumptions made regarding how mutants are generated during infection. We illustrate that allowing CTL responses to decay over time may improve the fit to experimental data and provides higher estimates of the killing efficacy of HIV-specific CTLs. We also propose a novel method for simultaneously estimating the killing efficacy of multiple CTL populations specific for different epitopes of HIV using stochastic simulations. Lastly, we show that current estimates of the efficacy at which HIV-specific CTLs clear virus-infected cells can be improved by more frequent sampling of viral sequences and by combining data on sequence evolution with experimentally measured CTL dynamics.

The analysis of the evolutionary dynamics of a population with many polymorphic loci is challenging since a large number of possible genotypes needs to be tracked. In the absence of analytical solutions, forward computer simulations are an important tool in multi-locus population genetics. The run time of standard algorithms to simulate sexual populations increases as 8^L with the number L of loci, or with the square of the population size N. We have developed algorithms that allow to simulate large populations with a run-time that scales as 3^L. The algorithm is based on an analog of the Fast-Fourier Transform (FFT) and allows for arbitrary fitness functions (i.e. any epistasis) and genetic maps. The algorithm is implemented as a collection of C++ classes and a Python interface., available from: http://code.google.com/p/ffpopsim

Selective sweeps are typically associated with a local reduction of genetic diversity around the adaptive site. However, selective sweeps can also quickly carry neutral mutations to observable population frequencies if they arise early in a sweep and hitchhike with the adaptive allele. We show that the interplay between mutation and exponential amplification through hitchhiking results in a characteristic frequency spectrum of the resulting novel haplotype variation that depends only on the ratio of the mutation rate and the selection coefficient of the sweep. On the basis of this result, we develop an estimator for the selection coefficient driving a sweep. Since this estimator utilizes the novel variation arising from mutations during a sweep, it does not rely on preexisting variation and can also be applied to loci that lack recombination. Compared with standard approaches that infer selection coefficients from the size of dips in genetic diversity around the adaptive site, our estimator requires much shorter sequences but sampled at high population depth to capture low-frequency variants; given such data, it consistently outperforms standard approaches. We investigate analytically and numerically how the accuracy of our estimator is affected by the decay of the sweep pattern over time as a consequence of random genetic drift and discuss potential effects of recombination, soft sweeps, and demography. As an example for its use, we apply our estimator to deep sequencing data from human immunodeficiency virus populations.

In sexual population, recombination reshuffles genetic variation and produces novel combinations of existing alleles, while selection amplifies the fittest genotypes in the population. If recombination is more rapid than selection, populations consist of a diverse mixture of many genotypes, as is observed in many populations. In the opposite regime, which is realized for example in the facultatively sexual populations that outcross in only a fraction of reproductive cycles, selection can amplify individual genotypes into large clones. Such clones emerge when the fitness advantage of some of the genotypes is large enough that they grow to a significant fraction of the population despite being broken down by recombination. The occurrence of this "clonal condensation" depends, in addition to the outcrossing rate, on the heritability of fitness. Clonal condensation leads to a strong genetic heterogeneity of the population which is not adequately described by traditional population genetics measures, such as Linkage Disequilibrium. Here we point out the similarity between clonal condensation and the freezing transition in the Random Energy Model of spin glasses. Guided by this analogy we explicitly calculate the probability, Y, that two individuals are genetically identical as a function of the key parameters of the model. While Y is the analog of the spin-glass order parameter, it is also closely related to rate of coalescence in population genetics: Two individuals that are part of the same clone have a recent common ancestor., revised version

We study a protein-DNA target search model with explicit DNA dynamics applicable to in vitro experiments. We show that the DNA dynamics plays a crucial role for the effectiveness of protein "jumps" between sites distant along the DNA contour but close in 3D space. A strongly binding protein that searches by 1D sliding and jumping alone, explores the search space less redundantly when the DNA dynamics is fast on the timescale of protein jumps than in the opposite "frozen DNA" limit. We characterize the crossover between these limits using simulations and scaling theory. We also rationalize the slow exploration in the frozen limit as a subtle interplay between long jumps and long trapping times of the protein in "islands" within random DNA configurations in solution., manuscript and supplementary material combined into a single document

The distribution and heritability of many traits depends on numerous loci in the genome. In general, the astronomical number of possible genotypes makes the system with large numbers of loci difficult to describe. Multilocus evolution, however, greatly simplifies in the limit of weak selection and frequent recombination. In this limit, populations rapidly reach Quasi-Linkage Equilibrium (QLE) in which the dynamics of the full genotype distribution, including correlations between alleles at different loci, can be parameterized by the allele frequencies. This review provides a simplified exposition of the concept and mathematics of QLE which is central to the statistical description of genotypes in sexual populations. We show how key results of Quantitative Genetics such as the generalized Fisher's "Fundamental Theorem", along with Wright's Adaptive Landscape, emerge within QLE from the dynamics of the genotype distribution. We then discuss under what circumstances QLE is applicable, and what the breakdown of QLE implies for the population structure and the dynamics of selection. Understanding of the fundamental aspects of multilocus evolution obtained through simplified models may be helpful in providing conceptual and computational tools to address the challenges arising in the studies of complex quantitative phenotypes of practical interest., to appear in Rev.Mod.Phys