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Enterprises of the agri-food and other sectors develop innovations that can serve the EU's Green Deal objective to become climate-neutral by 2050. Innovation processes face specific innovation environment conditions, which are beyond the enterprise's control. Our research aims to investigate how the innovation environment affects product innovation processes of agri-food enterprises located in a cross-border region. We developed our conceptual framework of the "cross-border innovation environment" based on innovation system and innovation management literature. We conducted semi-structured interviews in selected agri-food enterprises in the Dutch-German region Rhine-Waal. Results indicate that agri-food enterprises' innovation environments concentrated on national-level factors, and that cross-border factors and relationships were rare. Moreover, different factors influenced different stages of innovation processes that were primarily driven by markets compared to research. We conclude that integrating customers and business partners during research and technological development is important to address current challenges of the Green Deal. Understanding how the innovation environment influences innovation processes in agri-food enterprises can help to develop appropriate policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(1) Introduction: Antimicrobial agents have played an important role in improving the productivity of worldwide livestock production by reducing the impact of livestock diseases. However, a major drawback of antimicrobial use is the emergence of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens in food-producing animals. To reduce the use of antimicrobials, it is important to know the economic value of the use of antimicrobials and factors that determine that economic value. (2) Results: A theoretical framework was developed to assess the economic value of antimicrobial use. Three situations were distinguished: firstly, a baseline model for a farm with a conventional production system; secondly, an extension of the baseline model that includes the impact of production system improvements; and thirdly, an extension of the baseline model that includes the impacts of risk and risk attitude. This framework shows that the economic value of antimicrobial use is negatively affected by the price of productive inputs and damage-abatement inputs, and positively affected by the output price, the input–output combination, the damage abatement effect, risk aversion and variance in profit. (3) Conclusions: The theoretical framework presented in this study shows that there are several factors that (can) affect the economic value of antimicrobial use. The knowledge about the effect of these factors can be utilized to affect the economic value of antimicrobials and, consequently, affect antimicrobial use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article develops a framework for assessing the implementation of standards in a context of multiple negative externalities resulting from meat production. The framework is applied to the introduction of the New Dutch Retail Standard in the Dutch broiler market, a standard on animal welfare initiated by the private sector with national coverage. The results show that this standard did not lower producer, retailer, and consumer welfare; rather, social welfare increased by approximately 300 million euros. The framework provides a sound scientific basis for an ex ante analysis on the market potential of multiple standards. JEL CLASSIFICATION: D62; Q13; Q18 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Business interaction is important for innovation performance but may be challenging in cross-border regions. The objective of this research was to investigate the relation between factors that define cross-border business interaction and innovativeness. From the cross-border regional innovation systems literature, we operationalized thirty-five factors which potentially influence cross-border business interaction; these factors concern availability of science and knowledge bases, socio-cultural proximity, accessibility, institutional set-up, and governance. We conducted a survey focusing on these factors and analyzed the data using Cronbach's alpha and linear regression. The cross-border interaction factors identified in the survey results served as independent variables and the differences in innovativeness levels in different European cross-border regions served as our dependent variable. This study confirmed that differences in innovativeness levels between countries can be related to factors hindering cross-border business interaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus that is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). In 2006, the introduction of BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) caused a severe epidemic in Western and Central Europe. The principal effective veterinary measure in response to BT was believed to be vaccination accompanied by other measures such as movement restrictions and surveillance. As the number of vaccine doses available at the start of the vaccination campaign was rather uncertain, the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality and the Dutch agricultural industry wanted to evaluate several different vaccination strategies. This study aimed to rank eight vaccination strategies based on their efficiency (i.e. net costs in relation to prevented losses or benefits) for controlling the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic in 2008. Methodology/Principal Findings: An economic model was developed that included the Dutch professional cattle, sheep and goat sectors together with the hobby farms. Strategies were evaluated based on the least cost - highest benefit frontier, the benefit-cost ratio and the total net returns. Strategy F, where all adult sheep at professional farms in the Netherlands would be vaccinated was very efficient at lowest costs, whereas strategy D, where additional to all adult sheep at professional farms also all adult cattle in the four Northern provinces would be vaccinated, was also very efficient but at a little higher costs. Strategy C, where all adult sheep and cattle at professional farms in the whole of the Netherlands would be vaccinated was also efficient but again at higher costs. Conclusions/Significance: This study demonstrates that a financial analysis differentiates between vaccination strategies and indicates important decision rules based on efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is a continuing threat to the pig production sector in the European Union. A scenario tree model was developed to obtain more insight into the main risk factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction ( PCSFV). As this model contains many uncertain input parameters, sensitivity analysis was used to indicate which of these parameters influence model results most. Group screening combined with the statistical techniques of design of experiments and meta-modeling was applied to detect the most important uncertain input parameters among a total of 257 parameters. The response variable chosen was the annual PCSFV into the Netherlands. Only 128 scenario calculations were needed to specify the final meta-model. A consecutive one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis was performed with the main effects of this meta-model to explore their impact on the ranking of risk factors contributing most to the annual PCSFV. The results indicated that model outcome is most sensitive to the uncertain input parameters concerning the expected number of classical swine fever epidemics in Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom and the probability that CSFV survives in an empty livestock truck traveling over a distance of 0–900 km. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) into a country free of disease without vaccination may have huge consequences in terms of both disease spread and economic losses. More quantitative insight into the main factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (PCSFV) is needed to optimally use resources for the prevention of CSFV introduction. For this purpose a spreadsheet model was constructed that calculates the annual PCSFV into member states of the European Union (EU). The scenario pathway approach was used as most probabilities in the model are very small. Probability distributions were used to take into account inherent variability of input parameters. The model contained pathways of CSFV introduction including the import of pigs and pork products, returning livestock trucks, and contacts with wild boar. All EU member states were included as possible sources of CSFV. Default results for the Netherlands showed a mean overall annual PCSFV of approximately 0.06, indicating that the Netherlands can expect CSFV introduction on average once every 18 years from the pathways and countries included in the model. Almost 65% of this probability could be attributed to the pathway of returning livestock trucks. The most likely sources of CSFV introduction were Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Although the calculated probabilities were rather low when compared with expert estimates and recent history, the most likely causes of CSFV introduction indicated by the model were considered to be realistic. It was therefore concluded that the model is a useful tool to structure and analyze information for decision making concerning the prevention of CSFV introduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a protocol for a formal expert judgment process using a heterogeneous expert panel aimed at the quantification of continuous variables. The emphasis is on the process’s requirements related to the nature of expertise within the panel, in particular the heterogeneity of both substantive and normative expertise. The process provides the opportunity for interaction among the experts so that they fully understand and agree upon the problem at hand, including qualitative aspects relevant to the variables of interest, prior to the actual quantification task. Individual experts’ assessments on the variables of interest, cast in the form of subjective probability density functions, are elicited with a minimal demand for normative expertise. The individual experts’ assessments are aggregated into a single probability density function per variable, thereby weighting the experts according to their expertise. Elicitation techniques proposed include the Delphi technique for the qualitative assessment task and the ELI method for the actual quantitative assessment task. Appropriately, the Classical model was used to weight the experts’ assessments in order to construct a single distribution per variable. Applying this model, the experts’ quality typically was based on their performance on seed variables. An application of the proposed protocol in the broad and multidisciplinary field of animal health is presented. Results of this expert judgment process showed that the proposed protocol in combination with the proposed elicitation and analysis techniques resulted in valid data on the (continuous) variables of interest. In conclusion, the proposed protocol for a formal expert judgment process aimed at the elicitation of quantitative data from a heterogeneous expert panel provided satisfactory results. Hence, this protocol might be useful for expert judgment studies in other broad and/or multidisciplinary fields of interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intensive broiler production systems are criticized by EU citizens because of their negative impact on animal welfare, the environment and human health. To inform the development of sustainable broiler production systems, this paper provides insight in the synergies and trade-offs between different external factors originating from broiler production systems by developing a new analysis approach. The approach was applied to the Dutch conventional, New Dutch Retail Standard and Extensive Indoor+ systems. The latter two systems have more stringent standards on animal welfare relative to the conventional system. Four external factors were considered, i.e. animal welfare (indicated by Welfare Quality Index score), ammonia emission (kg NH 3 /animal place/year), particulate matter emission (g PM 10 /animal place/year) and antibiotic use (defined daily doses animal). Results show that the shift from a fast-growing breed towards a slower-growing breed caused synergy by improving animal welfare and lowering antibiotic use. Furthermore, the reduction in protein content of the feed, and possibly the reduction in stocking density, caused synergy by enhancing animal welfare and lowering ammonia emission. System changes that stimulated activity, such as the reduction in stocking density, enhanced animal welfare but caused a trade-off with particulate matter emission. Although the New Dutch Retail Standard and Extensive Indoor+ system were characterized by a higher ammonia and particulate matter emission per animal place per year relative to the conventional system, experts estimated that these emissions were partially (New Dutch Retail Standard) or fully (Extensive Indoor+) offset at farm level via a lower stocking density. Overall, we conclude that future development of broiler production systems can exploit the synergy between animal welfare, antibiotic use, and ammonia emission and minimize the trade-off between animal welfare and particulate matter emission. The insights obtained from this paper can support the development of sustainable broiler production systems that minimize external factors originating from these systems. Unlabelled Image • Broiler production systems are criticized because of their negative impact on animal welfare and the environment. • Synergies and trade-offs between external factors originating from Dutch broiler production systems were analyzed. • Synergies were found between animal welfare and antibiotic use, trade-offs between animal welfare and PM 10 emission. • We conclude that future broiler production systems can exploit synergistic effects and minimize the trade-offs. • Insights can support the development of sustainable broiler production systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Animal welfare (AW) in conventional Dutch broiler production (i.e., production systems that only satisfy the legal minimum requirements) has been under critique for decades. Then, suddenly, in 2014–2015, AW was improved for the entire Dutch fresh meat market for broilers. A study was conducted regarding the main reasons and decisive factors of this transition. It was found that important factors in bringing-about this transition were: (1) The availability of a cost-efficient alternative to conventional concepts, (2) a basic willingness to change within the entire value chain (including consumers), (3) initiating and triggering actions by non-governmental organizations (NGOs), (4) decisive initiatives by retailers and (5) simultaneous introduction of the new concept and replacement of the conventional concept (i.e., depriving the consumer of a cheaper choice alternative). It was concluded that, if these decisive factors were present, considerable improvements with regard to AW could be obtained in a relatively short period of time. This information can be of use for value chains of other species (e.g., pork) and countries outside the Netherlands. Since the 1970s, animal welfare (AW) in Dutch broiler production has been criticized by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and the general public. Despite the development of production concepts aimed at improving AW, the conventional concept, which satisfied only the minimum legal requirements, remained by far the most dominant one in the Dutch fresh broiler meat market. Then, quite suddenly, in 2014–2015 (i.e., within less than two years), a new broiler concept with increased AW was introduced, which included a slower growing animal, more space, and an improved light regime. This alternative completely replaced the by then conventional concept. The aim of this study was to investigate the origin, causes, and driving forces of this sudden change. Popular and scientific literature, as well as interviews with key players in this transition process, were used to re-construct the chronology of events and draw the main and decisive findings. The latter include: (1) The availability of a cost-efficient alternative to conventional concepts, (2) a basic willingness to change within the entire value chain (including consumers), (3) initiating and triggering actions by NGOs, (4) decisive initiatives by retailers and (5) simultaneous introduction of the new concept and replacement of the conventional concept (i.e., depriving the consumer of a cheaper choice alternative). The result was a real transition of the Dutch fresh meat market without negative purchasing responses of the consumers. It was concluded that, although the Dutch fresh broiler meat market only included 30% of total domestic production, the existence of the abovementioned decisive factors could bring about an important change in favor of AW within a short period of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Intensive broiler systems using fast-growing broiler strains at relatively high stocking density (higher than 38 kg/m2) are being criticised in Western countries because of risks for animal welfare. To address this criticism, alternative middle-segment production systems were introduced in North-West Europe in the 2000s. These middle-segment systems contain indoor housed slower-growing broiler strains housed at stocking densities ≤38 kg/m2 and claim to have increased animal welfare at a limited increase in production costs. In this study we aimed to analyse the level of animal welfare and production costs of these middle-segment production systems in different parts of the world (the Netherlands, United States and Brazil). Results show that in the Netherlands, United States and Brazil a change from conventional towards these middle-segment systems provides a considerable increase in animal welfare at a relatively small increase in production costs, i.e., has a high cost-efficiency. Overall, it can be concluded that in general middle-segment production systems entail a considerable increase in animal welfare at a relatively small increase in production costs and therefore offer good global prospects for a cost-efficient improvement of broiler welfare. In the 2000s, the idea of a so-called middle-segment arose in North-West Europe to address the criticism on intensive broiler production systems. Middle-segment systems being indoor housing of slower-growing broiler strains at a stocking density ≤38 kg/m2. Previous literature showed that Dutch middle-segment systems entail a relatively large gain in animal welfare at a relatively low increase in costs, i.e., have a high cost-efficiency. The question is to what extent these findings are applicable to other countries. Therefore, the aim of this study is to gain insight in the global prospects of middle-segment systems by exploring the cost-efficiency of these systems in other parts of the world. A set of representative countries, containing the Netherlands, United States and Brazil were selected. Cost-efficiency was defined as the ratio of the change in the level of animal welfare and the change in production costs. The level of animal welfare was measured by the Welfare Quality (WQ) index score. Data was collected from literature and consulting experts. Results show that in the Netherlands, United States and Brazil a change from conventional towards a middle-segment system improves animal welfare in a cost-efficient manner (the Netherlands 9.1, United States 24.2 and Brazil 12.1). Overall, it can be concluded that in general middle-segment production systems provide a considerable increase in animal welfare at a relatively small increase in production costs and therefore offer good prospects for a cost-efficient improvement of broiler welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Macroparasites, such as ticks, lice, and helminths, are a concern in livestock and aquaculture production, and can be controlled by genetic improvement of the host population. Genetic improvement should aim at reducing the rate at which parasites spread across the farmed population. This rate is determined by the basic reproduction ratio, i.e. R 0 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{0}$$\end{document} , which is the appropriate breeding goal trait. This study aims at providing a method to derive the economic value of R 0 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{0}$$\end{document}. Methods: Costs of a disease are the sum of production losses and expenditures on disease control. Genetic improvement of R 0 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{0}$$\end{document} lowers the loss-expenditure frontier. Its economic effect depends on whether the management strategy is optimized or not. The economic value may be derived either from the reduction in losses with constant expenditures or from the reduction in expenditures with constant losses. Results: When R 0 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{0}$$\end{document} ≤ 1, the economic value of a further reduction is zero because there is no risk of a major epidemic. When R 0 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{0}$$\end{document} > 1 and management is optimized, the economic value increases with decreasing values of R 0 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{0}$$\end{document} , because both the mean number of parasites per host and frequency of treatments decrease at an increasing rate when R 0 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{0}$$\end{document} decreases. When R 0 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{0}$$\end{document} > 1 and management is not optimized, the economic value depends on whether genetic improvement is used for reducing expenditures or losses. For sea lice in salmon, the economic value depends on a reduction in expenditures with constant losses, and is estimated to be 0.065€/unit R 0 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{0}$$\end{document} /kg production. Discussion: Response to selection for measures of disease prevalence cannot be predicted from quantitative genetic theory alone. Moreover, many studies fail to address the issue of whether genetic improvement results in reduced losses or expenditures. Using R 0 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{0}$$\end{document} as the breeding goal trait, weighed by its appropriate economic value, avoids these issues. Conclusion: When management is optimized, the economic value increases with decreasing values of R 0 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{0}$$\end{document} (until the threshold of R 0 = 1 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{0} = 1$$\end{document} , where it drops to zero). When management is not optimized, the economic value depends on whether genetic improvement is used for reduced expenditures or production losses. For sea lice in salmon, the economic value is estimated to be 0.065 €/unit R 0 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{R}}_{0}$$\end{document} /kg production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to societal concerns, the European Union set up goals to address the negative impact of intensive broiler production on animal welfare, the environment and human health. This paper aimed to 1) explore combinations of system changes that perform best in terms of farm income, animal welfare, emissions of ammonia (NH 3) and particulate matter (PM 10) and 2) are robust to changes in society's expectations relating to animal welfare and environmental sustainability. The prevailing system in the Dutch broiler market was used as a baseline for evaluating system changes. Animal welfare, NH 3 emissions and PM 10 emissions were the three external factors chosen for this evaluation. Farm income was quantified by the net return to labor and management (NRLM). Expert knowledge elicitation was used to identify system changes that were likely to be implemented in the baseline system. Combinations were made by selecting system changes from each of the chosen external factors. A deterministic model was used to calculate the effect of each combination of system changes on net return to labor and management. The performance of each combination was evaluated by estimating a benefit-of-the-doubt composite indicator. Results show that 8 out of 70 combinations indicated a better outcome and were more robust to potential changes in society's expectations relating to animal welfare and environmental sustainability. These combinations included two or more of the following system changes: 'lower density' (30 kg/m2), '2 types of enrichment', and 'daylight'. Furthermore, these combinations included 'tube heaters' for the abatement of NH 3 emissions, and 'negative air ionization system' or 'ionization filter' for the abatement of PM 10 emissions. To compensate for the decrease in NRLM associated with these practices and abatement techniques, a price premium was required that ranged between 4.8 and 18.5 eurocents/broiler. We conclude that combinations including animal welfare related system changes (lower density, enrichment and/or daylight), tube heaters and an ionization technique performed best and were robust to changes of societal expectations of these external factors. The insights obtained from this paper can support decision making in improving the sustainability of current broiler production systems. [Display omitted] • The European Union set up goals to improve the sustainability of broiler production. • This paper aimed to explore the performance of combinations of system changes in broiler production. • The performance of each combination was evaluated by developing a benefit-of-the-doubt composite indicator. • Combinations including an air ionization system for PM 10 reduction and tube heaters for NH 3 reduction performed best. • The insights can support decision making in improving the sustainability of current broiler production systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Broiler producers operate in a highly competitive and cost-price driven environment. In addition, in recent years the societal pressure to improve animal welfare (AW) in broiler production systems is increasing. Hence, from an economic and decision making point of view, the cost-efficiency of improvement in AW obtained from a certain production system is of great importance. Therefore, the aim of this paper was to analyze the contribution of four different production systems to overall AW and the cost-efficiency of increased AW at the farm level. Cost-efficiency was calculated as the ratio of the change in the level of animal welfare and the change in the level of production costs compared to the level of conventional system (i.e., legal minimum standards). The level of AW was measured by the Welfare Quality index score (WQ index score) calculated on the basis of data collected in 168 flocks in the Netherlands, United Kingdom and Italy within the Welfare Quality® project. On the basis of system attributes, three main segments of production systems are distinguished, i.e., conventional, middle-market and top-market systems. The middle-market and top-market systems use a slow growing breed. Stocking density ranges from 25 to 31 kg/m 2 in middle-market systems and from 21 to 27.5 kg/m 2 in top-market systems. In the middle-market systems, a covered veranda is provided to the chickens, whereas in the top-market systems chickens have access to an outdoor range. Results show that the middle-market systems, such as Volwaard and Puur & Eerlijk systems, had the highest WQ index score (736), whereas the conventional system had the lowest (577). Moreover, the WQ index score of extensive outdoor (733) and organic systems (698) was below that of the middle-market systems. The major system attributes that differentiate between production systems are broiler type, stocking density and outdoor access. Three system attributes contributed most to AW in all systems, i.e., broiler type, stocking density and length of the dark period. With respect to production costs, broiler chickens kept in conventional system were produced at the lowest costs, followed by the middle-market, the extensive outdoor, and the organic systems. With regard to cost-efficiency, when shifting from conventional to an alternative system, middle-market systems (i.e., Volwaard and Puur & Eerlijk; 8.37) outperformed the extensive outdoor (3.90) and organic systems (1.03). Overall, it can be concluded that the middle-market systems could be attractive for farmers due to their high cost-efficiency and the flexibility to revert to the conventional system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 remains endemic in the Western Java smallholder broiler farms. This study aims to identify farmers and farm characteristics associated with farmers' motivations toward five different measures directed to HPAI: cleaning and disinfection (C&D), vaccination, reporting, and stamping-out with and without compensation. Through multi-stage sampling and a questionnaire, we collected data from 199 farmers in Western Java and applied descriptive analysis and logistic regression to evaluate the data. Most smallholder broiler farms had a production contract with a poultry company. Unexpectedly, we identified subtypes of price-contract (i.e., revenues based on contract selling price and live bird weight) and makloon -contract (i.e., revenues based on management fee per bird) schemes. We identified these new subtypes as extended price-contract and extended makloon- contract schemes. These extended subtypes included issues related to animal health management and payment schemes. The results show that most of the farmers in both extended types were highly motivated to implement C&D and vaccination. Business types and farmers' awareness of HPAI were significantly associated with a farmer's motivation to implement C&D. Farmers who had an awareness of HPAI were more likely to implement C&D. Although our models were insufficient to model the association of farmers' motivation to uptake preventive measures against HPAI in Western Java, this study identified significant characteristics that help improve HPAI control policy in Western Java. Our study suggests that farm business types and incentives through payment schemes and training may increase the uptake of preventive measures by farmers., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Pramuwidyatama, Indrawan, Saatkamp and Hogeveen.)

Understanding broiler farmers' intention toward highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) control is important to design successful HPAI control programs. We used Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to identify factors (i.e., attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control) associated with the intentions of Western-Java small-scale broiler farmers toward implementing cleaning and disinfection (C&D), vaccination, reporting, and stamping-out without or with 50% compensation. For this, 203 Western-Java farmers were interviewed. The majority of the farmers had a positive intention to implement C&D (89%), reporting (88%), and vaccination (80%). A lower number had a positive intention to join stamping-out both with 50% compensation (67%) and without any compensation (53%). Farmers had a more positive attitude and subjective norm, but lower perceived behavioral control toward one or more of the intentions to implement measures. Attitude was positively associated with intentions to implement C&D and vaccination. Subjective norm of veterinarians of integrated companies was positively associated with intentions to implement vaccination. Perceived behavioral control (i.e., money and time) was positively associated with intentions to implement C&D, vaccination, and stamping-out without any compensation. Results suggest that farmers are in favor of implementing preventive measures (i.e., C&D and vaccination) on HPAI control over facing the consequences of control measures (i.e., stamping-out), and HPAI control programs should primarily focus on incentivizing farmers complemented by programs aiming to improve farmers' attitude. Thus, policy should be emphasized to preventive measures rather than control measures. Financial incentive-based instruments (e.g., price and performance bonus) can be used to increase the intention of farmers to implement C&D and vaccination. Trained vaccinators might help to save the time needed to vaccinate the entire flock can increase the intention of farmers to vaccinate their chickens. Also, informational instruments (e.g., education and communication) can be used to change and to improve the attitude of farmers to implement both measures., (Copyright © 2020 Pramuwidyatama, Hogeveen and Saatkamp.)

Over the past years, many different control measures have been implemented to prevent HPAI infection. The national plan with numerous measures lead to problems in terms of prioritization and budget allocation. Our study objectives are to (i) establish an inventory of measures on HPAI control in Indonesia since the first actions were taken in 2004, (ii) evaluate preferences for different HPAI control measures applied in the West Java province at the district level during 2013-2017, and (iii) establish a basis for further qualitative and quantitative research to improve control for an endemic HPAI in Indonesia. This research was carried out according to the following five steps (i) development of an HPAI management framework for an endemic state, (ii) inventorization of measures directed at HPAI and description of the development of HPAI in Indonesia, (iii) development of a questionnaire for the experts involved, (iv) systematic evaluation of preferences for short- and long-term HPAI strategies and measures applied in the West Java Province based on expert opinion, and (v) data analysis. The study systematically evaluated in total 27 measures. The results of this study show that the animal disease management framework is helpful as a systematic structure to distinguish and evaluate strategies and measures. In our framework, we defined the following strategies: prevention, monitoring, control, mitigation, eradication, and human protection. The findings of our research show that the primary aims of the government were to safeguard humans from HPAI transmission by mitigating HPAI disease in livestock. The measures with the highest priority were preventive vaccination of poultry, biosecurity, and stamping-out infected flocks. This showed that the government predominantly chose a vaccination-based HPAI mitigation strategy. However, the chosen strategy has a low implementation feasibility. A collaboration between the responsible stakeholders farmers may increase the feasibility of the chosen strategy in the future. Furthermore, our findings provide a basis for research into the motivation of farmers to implement different measures as well as into the expected impact of different measures to develop an effective and efficient mitigation approach.

Introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is a continuing threat to the pig production sector in the European Union. A scenario tree model was developed to obtain more insight into the main risk factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (P(CSFV)). As this model contains many uncertain input parameters, sensitivity analysis was used to indicate which of these parameters influence model results most. Group screening combined with the statistical techniques of design of experiments and meta-modeling was applied to detect the most important uncertain input parameters among a total of 257 parameters. The response variable chosen was the annual P(CSFV) into the Netherlands. Only 128 scenario calculations were needed to specify the final meta-model. A consecutive one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis was performed with the main effects of this meta-model to explore their impact on the ranking of risk factors contributing most to the annual P(CSFV). The results indicated that model outcome is most sensitive to the uncertain input parameters concerning the expected number of classical swine fever epidemics in Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom and the probability that CSFV survives in an empty livestock truck traveling over a distance of 0-900 km.

The introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) into a country free of disease without vaccination may have huge consequences in terms of both disease spread and economic losses. More quantitative insight into the main factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (PCSFV) is needed to optimally use resources for the prevention of CSFV introduction. For this purpose a spreadsheet model was constructed that calculates the annual PCSFV into member states of the European Union (EU). The scenario pathway approach was used as most probabilities in the model are very small. Probability distributions were used to take into account inherent variability of input parameters. The model contained pathways of CSFV introduction including the import of pigs and pork products, returning livestock trucks, and contacts with wild boar. All EU member states were included as possible sources of CSFV. Default results for the Netherlands showed a mean overall annual PCSFV of approximately 0.06, indicating that the Netherlands can expect CSFV introduction on average once every 18 years from the pathways and countries included in the model. Almost 65% of this probability could be attributed to the pathway of returning livestock trucks. The most likely sources of CSFV introduction were Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Although the calculated probabilities were rather low when compared with expert estimates and recent history, the most likely causes of CSFV introduction indicated by the model were considered to be realistic. It was therefore concluded that the model is a useful tool to structure and analyze information for decision making concerning the prevention of CSFV introduction.

This paper presents a protocol for a formal expert judgment process using a heterogeneous expert panel aimed at the quantification of continuous variables. The emphasis is on the process's requirements related to the nature of expertise within the panel, in particular the heterogeneity of both substantive and normative expertise. The process provides the opportunity for interaction among the experts so that they fully understand and agree upon the problem at hand, including qualitative aspects relevant to the variables of interest, prior to the actual quantification task. Individual experts' assessments on the variables of interest, cast in the form of subjective probability density functions, are elicited with a minimal demand for normative expertise. The individual experts' assessments are aggregated into a single probability density function per variable, thereby weighting the experts according to their expertise. Elicitation techniques proposed include the Delphi technique for the qualitative assessment task and the ELI method for the actual quantitative assessment task. Appropriately, the Classical model was used to weight the experts' assessments in order to construct a single distribution per variable. Applying this model, the experts' quality typically was based on their performance on seed variables. An application of the proposed protocol in the broad and multidisciplinary field of animal health is presented. Results of this expert judgment process showed that the proposed protocol in combination with the proposed elicitation and analysis techniques resulted in valid data on the (continuous) variables of interest. In conclusion, the proposed protocol for a formal expert judgment process aimed at the elicitation of quantitative data from a heterogeneous expert panel provided satisfactory results. Hence, this protocol might be useful for expert judgment studies in other broad and/or multidisciplinary fields of interest.