Search

Ecological forecasting has vast potential to support environmental decision making with repeated, testable predictions across management-relevant timescales and locations. Yet resource managers rarely use co-designed forecasting systems or embed them in decision making. Although prediction of planned management outcomes is particularly important for biological invasions to optimize when and where resources should be allocated, spatial-temporal models of spread typically have not been openly shared, iteratively updated, or interactive to facilitate exploration of management actions. We describe a species-agnostic, open-source framework - called the Pest or Pathogen Spread (PoPS) Forecasting Platform - for co-designing near-term iterative forecasts of biological invasions. Two case studies are presented to demonstrate that iterative calibration yields higher forecast skill than using only the earliest-available data to predict future spread. The PoPS framework is a primary example of an ecological forecasting system that has been both scientifically improved and optimized for real-world decision making through sustained participation and use by management stakeholders.

Coping Power (CP) is an evidence-based preventive intervention for youth with disruptive behavior problems. This study examined whether Mindful Coping Power (MCP), a novel adaptation which integrates mindfulness into CP, enhances program effects on children’s reactive aggression and self-regulation. A pilot randomized design was utilized to estimate the effect sizes for MCP versus CP in a sample of 102 child participants (fifth grade students, predominantly low-middle income, 87% Black). MCP produced significantly greater improvement in children’s self-reported dysregulation (emotional, behavioral, cognitive) than CP, including children’s perceived anger modulation. Small to moderate effects favoring MCP were also observed for improvements in child-reported inhibitory control and breath awareness and parent-reported child attentional capacity and social skills. MCP did not yield a differential effect on teacher-rated reactive aggression. CP produced a stronger effect than MCP on parent-reported externalizing behavior problems. Although MCP did not enhance program effects on children’s reactive aggression as expected, it did have enhancing effects on children’s internal, embodied experiences (self-regulation, anger modulation, breath awareness). Future studies are needed to compare MCP and CP in a large scale, controlled efficacy trial and to examine whether MCP-produced improvements in children’s internal experiences lead to improvements in their observable behavior over time.

Although cognitive-behavioral interventions have reduced the risk of substance use, little is known about moderating factors in children with disruptive behaviors. This study examined whether aggressive preadolescents’ inhibitory control and intervention engagement moderates the effect of group versus individual delivery on their substance use. Following screening for aggression in 4th grade, 360 children were randomly assigned to receive the Coping Power intervention in either group or individual formats. The sample was primarily African American (78%) and male (65%). Assessments were made of children’s self-reported substance use from preintervention through a six-year follow-up after intervention, parent-reported inhibitory control at preintervention, and observed behavioral engagement in the group intervention. Multilevel growth modeling found lower increases in substance use slopes for children with low inhibitory control receiving individual intervention, and for children with higher inhibitory control receiving group intervention. Children with low inhibitory control but who displayed more positive behavioral engagement in the group sessions had slower increases in their substance use than did similar children without positive engagement. Aggressive children’s level of inhibitory control can lead to tailoring of group versus individual delivery of intervention. Children’s positive behavioral engagement in group sessions is a protective factor for children with low inhibitory control.

We present a method for augmenting spacecraft measurements of thermospheric composition with quantitative estimates of daytime thermospheric composition below 200 km, inferred from ionospheric data, for which there is a global network of ground-based stations. Measurements of thermospheric composition via ground-based instrumentation are challenging to make, and so details about this important region of the upper atmosphere are currently sparse. The visibility of the F1 peak in ionospheric soundings from ground-based instrumentation is a sensitive function of thermospheric composition. The ionospheric profile in the transition region between F1 and F2 peaks can be expressed by the “G” factor, a function of ion production rate and loss rates via ion–atom interchange reactions and dissociative recombination of molecular ions. This in turn can be expressed as the square of the ratio of ions lost via these processes. We compare estimates of the G factor obtained from ionograms recorded at Kwajalein (9∘ N, 167.2∘ E) for 25 times during which the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) spacecraft recorded approximately co-located measurements of the neutral thermosphere. We find a linear relationship between G and the molecular-to-atomic composition ratio, with a gradient of 2.55±0.40. Alternatively, using hmF1 values obtained by ionogram inversion, this gradient was found to be 4.75±0.4. Further, accounting for equal ionisation in molecular and atomic species yielded a gradient of 4.20±0.8. This relationship has potential for using ground-based ionospheric measurements to infer quantitative variations in the composition of the neutral thermosphere via a relatively simple model. This has applications in understanding long-term change and the efficacy of the upper atmosphere on satellite drag.

The Heliospheric Imagers on board National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)'s\ud twin STEREO spacecraft show that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be visually complex structures. To\ud explore this complexity, we created a citizen science project with the U.K. Science Museum, in which\ud participants were shown pairs of CME images and asked to decide which image in each pair appeared the\ud most “complicated.” A Bradley‐Terry model was then applied to these data to rank the CMEs by their\ud “complicatedness,” or “visual complexity.” This complexity ranking revealed that the annual average visual\ud complexity values follow the solar activity cycle, with a higher level of complexity being observed at the peak\ud of the cycle. The average complexity of CMEs observed by STEREO‐A was also found to be significantly\ud higher than those observed by STEREO‐B. Visual complexity was found to be associated with CME size and\ud brightness, but our results suggest that complexity may be influenced by the scale‐sizes of structure in the\ud CMEs.

RNA binding proteins represent an emerging class of proteins with a role in cardiac dysfunction. We show that activation of the RNA binding protein human antigen R (HuR) is increased in the failing human heart. To determine the functional role of HuR in pathological cardiac hypertrophy, we created an inducible cardiomyocyte-specific HuR-deletion mouse and showed that HuR deletion reduces left ventricular hypertrophy, dilation, and fibrosis while preserving cardiac function in a transverse aortic constriction (TAC) model of pressure overload-induced hypertrophy. Assessment of HuR-dependent changes in global gene expression suggests that the mechanistic basis for this protection occurs through a reduction in fibrotic signaling, specifically through a reduction in TGF-β (Tgfb) expression. Finally, pharmacological inhibition of HuR at a clinically relevant time point following the initial development of pathological hypertrophy after TAC also yielded a significant reduction in pathological progression, as marked by a reduction in hypertrophy, dilation, and fibrosis and preserved function. In summary, this study demonstrates a functional role for HuR in the progression of pressure overload-induced cardiac hypertrophy and establishes HuR inhibition as a viable therapeutic approach for pathological cardiac hypertrophy and heart failure.

The present study examines the impact of traumatic life events on religious complexity in later life. We anticipated that those older adults experiencing stressors that produce significant personal vulnerability (e.g., life threatening illnesses) demonstrate reduced complexity of belief and behavior (e.g., less belief with doubt). From a sample of 278 semi-structured interviews of older adults (aged 55-101 years-old.) from six New England and New York states, we analyzed 166 interviews using grounded theory (Strauss & Corbin, 1990). Individuals who experienced trauma related to war, close familial loss, and/or severe physical illness tended to be “true believers,” (i.e., adhere to rigid belief orthodoxy; Hoffer, 1950). By contrast, those who experienced less severe trauma (e.g., minor illness, job loss) were less apt to describe rigid belief. Temporal proximity of trauma was not consistently associated with greater complexity of belief and behavior, in the sense that with great distance from trauma, individuals were able to “work through” their experiences of trauma, and thereby increase complexity of belief and behavior. This is consistent with findings by Harris and Leak (2015), Krause and Hayward (2012), and Wong (2013) that suggest that trauma leading to personal vulnerability leads to long-term physical, mental, behavioral, and spiritual deficits that rigid religious belief and behavior help to offset. These findings are discussed in terms of psychological theories of grief resolution, personal coping, and terror management.

In contrast to larger species, little is known about the flight of the smallest flying insects, such as thrips and fairyflies. These tiny animals range from 300 to 1000 microns in length and fly at Reynolds numbers ranging from about 4 to 60. Previous work with numerical and physical models have shown that the aerodynamics of these diminutive insects is significantly different from that of larger animals, but most of these studies have relied on two-dimensional approximations. There can, however, be significant differences between two- and three-dimensional flows, as has been found for larger insects. To better understand the flight of the smallest insects, we have performed a systematic study of the forces and flow structures around a three-dimensional revolving elliptical wing. We used both a dynamically scaled physical model and a three-dimensional computational model at Reynolds numbers ranging from 1 to 130 and angles of attacks ranging from 0&deg, to 90&deg, The results of the physical and computational models were in good agreement and showed that dimensionless drag, aerodynamic efficiency, and spanwise flow all decrease with decreasing Reynolds number. In addition, both the leading and trailing edge vortices remain attached to the wing over the scales relevant to the smallest flying insects. Overall, these observations suggest that there are drastic differences in the aerodynamics of flight at the scale of the smallest flying animals.

Objective— PAR2 (protease-activated receptor 2)-dependent signaling results in augmented inflammation and has been implicated in the pathogenesis of several autoimmune conditions. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of PAR2 deficiency on the development of atherosclerosis. Approach and Results— PAR2 mRNA and protein expression is increased in human carotid artery and mouse aortic arch atheroma versus control carotid and aortic arch arteries, respectively. To determine the effect of PAR2 deficiency on atherosclerosis, male and female low-density lipoprotein receptor–deficient ( Ldlr −/− ) mice (8–12 weeks old) that were Par2 +/+ or Par2 −/− were fed a fat- and cholesterol-enriched diet for 12 or 24 weeks. PAR2 deficiency attenuated atherosclerosis in the aortic sinus and aortic root after 12 and 24 weeks. PAR2 deficiency did not alter total plasma cholesterol concentrations or lipoprotein distributions. Bone marrow transplantation showed that PAR2 on nonhematopoietic cells contributed to atherosclerosis. PAR2 deficiency significantly attenuated levels of the chemokines Ccl2 and Cxcl1 in the circulation and macrophage content in atherosclerotic lesions. Mechanistic studies using isolated primary vascular smooth muscle cells showed that PAR2 deficiency is associated with reduced Ccl2 and Cxcl1 mRNA expression and protein release into the supernatant resulting in less monocyte migration. Conclusions— Our results indicate that PAR2 deficiency is associated with attenuation of atherosclerosis and may reduce lesion progression by blunting Ccl2 - and Cxcl1 -induced monocyte infiltration.

Background Smokers have increased susceptibility and altered innate host defense responses to influenza virus infection. Broccoli sprouts are a source of the Nrf2 activating agentsulforaphane, and short term ingestion of broccoli sprout homogenates (BSH) has been shown to reduce nasal inflammatory responses to oxidant pollutants. Objectives Assess the effects of BSH on nasal cytokines, virus replication, and Nrf2-dependent enzyme expression in smokers and nonsmokers. Methods We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial comparing the effects of BSH on serially sampled nasal lavage fluid (NLF) cytokines, viral sequence quantity, and Nrf2-dependent enzyme expression in NLF cells and biopsied epithelium. Healthy young adult smokers and nonsmokers ingested BSH or placebo (alfalfa sprout homogenate) for 4 days, designated Days -1, 0, 1, 2. On Day 0 they received standard vaccine dose of live attenuated influenza virus (LAIV) intranasally. Nasal lavage fluids and nasal biopsies were collected serially to assess response to LAIV. Results In area under curve analyses, post-LAIV IL-6 responses (P = 0.03) and influenza sequences (P = 0.01) were significantly reduced in NLF from BSH-treated smokers, whileNAD(P)H: quinoneoxidoreductasein NLF cells was significantly increased. In nonsmokers, a similar trend for reduction in virus quantity with BSH did not reach statistical significance. Conclusions In smokers, short term ingestion of broccoli sprout homogenates appears to significantly reduce some virus-induced markers of inflammation, as well as reducing virus quantity. Nutritional antioxidant interventions have promise as a safe, low-cost strategy for reducing influenza risk among smokers and other at risk populations. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01269723