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West Nile virus (WNV), a flavivirus transmitted by mosquito bites, causes primarily mild symptoms but can also be fatal. Therefore, predicting and controlling the spread of West Nile virus is essential for public health in endemic areas. We hypothesized that socioeconomic factors may influence human risk from WNV. We analyzed a list of weather, land use, mosquito surveillance, and socioeconomic variables for predicting WNV cases in 1-km hexagonal grids across the Chicago metropolitan area. We used a two-stage lightGBM approach to perform the analysis and found that hexagons with incomes above and below the median are influenced by the same top characteristics. We found that weather factors and mosquito infection rates were the strongest common factors. Land use and socioeconomic variables had relatively small contributions in predicting WNV cases. The Light GBM handles unbalanced data sets well and provides meaningful predictions of the risk of epidemic disease outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vector-borne pathogens (VBPs) causing vector-borne diseases (VBDs) can circulate among humans, domestic animals, and wildlife, with cattle in particular serving as an important source of exposure risk to humans. The close associations between humans and cattle can facilitate the transmission of numerous VBPs, impacting public health and economic security. Published studies demonstrate that cattle can influence human exposure risk positively, negatively, or have no effect. There is a critical need to synthesize the information in the scientific literature on this subject, in order to illuminate the various ecological mechanisms that can affect VBP exposure risk in humans. Therefore, the aim of this systematic review was to review the scientific literature, provide a synthesis of the possible effects of cattle on VBP risk to humans, and propose future directions for research. This study was performed according to the PRISMA 2020 extension guidelines for systematic review. After screening 470 peer-reviewed articles published between 1999–2019 using the databases Web of Science Core Collection, PubMed Central, CABI Global Health, and Google Scholar, and utilizing forward and backward search techniques, we identified 127 papers that met inclusion criteria. Results of the systematic review indicate that cattle can be beneficial or harmful to human health with respect to VBDs depending on vector and pathogen ecology and livestock management practices. Cattle can increase risk of exposure to infections spread by tsetse flies and ticks, followed by sandflies and mosquitoes, through a variety of mechanisms. However, cattle can have a protective effect when the vector prefers to feed on cattle instead of humans and when chemical control measures (e.g., acaricides/insecticides), semio-chemicals, and other integrated vector control measures are utilized in the community. We highlight that further research is needed to determine ways in which these mechanisms may be exploited to reduce VBD risk in humans. Author summary: Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are caused by pathogens spread by blood-feeding arthropods from an infected to an uninfected organism. These infections may be caused by pathogenic bacteria, viruses, or protozoans and arthropod vectors may spread these pathogens to humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. Humans and cattle spend a significant amount of time in close proximity with each other through various activities such as agriculture, animal husbandry, trading, and animal farming, which can potentially increase risk to human health. Previously published studies indicated cattle can impact vector-borne pathogen (VBP) transmission both positively and negatively, however, there has not been a recent synthesis of the scientific literature on this subject. Through this global systematic review of the scientific literature, we found that cattle could have either harmful or beneficial impacts on human health when it comes to VBDs, but most often increase exposure risk to VBPs in humans. We identified various mechanisms from the scientific literature by which cattle can impact VBP risk in humans. Further research is needed to better understand specific ecological mechanisms by which cattle impact human health and develop measures that will prevent and reduce VBP exposure risk in humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tickborne diseases (TBDs) in Illinois have increased in recent years. A growing body of literature indicates that the risk of exposure to ticks and tickborne diseases is higher among outdoor workers, including farmers. However, information is lacking on awareness of ticks and tickborne diseases among this demographic. This study aimed to determine the knowledge and awareness among Illinois farmers regarding ticks and tickborne diseases. A Knowledge, Attitudes & Prevention practices (KAP) survey was developed and administered to capture information regarding farmers' knowledge and attitudes about ticks and TBDs. Tick drags were conducted on a subset of properties as an incentive to complete the survey and to compare farmers' knowledge or expectations of ticks on their land with ticks collected. Fifty farmers participated in the survey, and 17 allowed tick drags. Only 60% of respondents had at least moderate knowledge about ticks gained through family and friends (56%), medical and healthcare personnel (48%), and the internet (44%). Responses varied by the type of commodity produced by the farmer. Fifty percent of participants reported knowledge about the blacklegged tick, 34% for the American dog tick, and 42% for the lone star tick; this knowledge also varied by farm type. Most farmers (54%) agreed that preventative behaviors could protect against tickborne diseases. Self-reported knowledge was significantly and directly associated with knowledge scores (p <.001). Knowledge of ticks and TBDs was lower among crop farmers than beef or mixed commodity farmers, but farmers generally have moderate knowledge of tick species in Illinois. Many participants expressed low concern over contracting a TBD, but many were also dissatisfied with the level of tick prevention measures that they follow. These results can be utilized to fill in knowledge gaps and develop informational materials to help farmers protect themselves against ticks and TBDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Nile virus (WNV) has consistently been reported to be associated with human cases of illness in the region near Chicago, Illinois. However, the number of reported cases of human illness varies across years, with intermittent outbreaks. Several dynamic factors, including temperature, rainfall, and infection status of vector mosquito populations, are responsible for much of these observed variations. However, local landscape structure and human demographic characteristics also play a key role. The geographic and temporal scales used to analyze such complex data affect the observed associations. Here, we used spatial and statistical modeling approaches to investigate the factors that drive the outcome of WNV human illness on fine temporal and spatial scales. Our approach included multi-level modeling of long-term weekly data from 2005 to 2016, with weekly measures of mosquito infection, human illness and weather combined with more stable landscape and demographic factors on the geographical scale of 1000m hexagons. We found that hot weather conditions, warm winters, and higher MIR in earlier weeks increased the probability of an area of having a WNV human case. Higher population and the proportion of urban light intensity in an area also increased the probability of observing a WNV human case. A higher proportion of open water sources, percentage of grass land, deciduous forests, and housing built post 1990 decreased the probability of having a WNV case. Additionally, we found that cumulative positive mosquito pools up to 31 weeks can strongly predict the total annual human WNV cases in the Chicago region. This study helped us to improve our understanding of the fine-scale drivers of spatiotemporal variability of human WNV cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enteric viruses are often detected in water used for crop irrigation. One concern is foodborne viral disease via the consumption of fresh produce irrigated with virus‐contaminated water. Although the food industry routinely uses chemical sanitizers to disinfect post‐harvest fresh produce, it remains unknown how sanitizer and fresh produce properties affect the risk of viral illness through fresh produce consumption. A quantitative microbial risk assessment model was conducted to estimate (i) the health risks associated with consumption of rotavirus (RV)‐contaminated fresh produce with different surface properties (endive and kale) and (ii) how risks changed when using peracetic acid (PAA) or a surfactant‐based sanitizer. The modeling results showed that the annual disease burden depended on the combination of sanitizer and vegetable type when vegetables were irrigated with RV‐contaminated water. Global sensitivity analyses revealed that the most influential factors in the disease burden were RV concentration in irrigation water and postharvest disinfection efficacy. A postharvest disinfection efficacy of higher than 99% (2‐log10) was needed to decrease the disease burden below the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold, even in scenarios with low RV concentrations in irrigation water (i.e., river water). All scenarios tested here with at least 99.9% (3‐log10) disinfection efficacy had a disease burden lower than the WHO threshold, except for the endive treated with PAA. The disinfection efficacy for the endive treated with PAA was only about 80%, leading to a disease burden 100 times higher than the WHO threshold. These findings should be considered and incorporated into future models for estimating foodborne viral illness risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hansen’s disease (HD), or leprosy, is still considered a public health risk in much of Brazil. Understanding the dynamics of the infection at a regional level can aid in identification of targets to improve control. A compartmental continuous-time model for leprosy dynamics was designed based on understanding of the biology of the infection. The transmission coefficients for the model and the rate of detection were fit for each region using Approximate Bayesian Computation applied to paucibacillary and multibacillary incidence data over the period of 2000 to 2010, and model fit was validated on incidence data from 2011 to 2012. Regional variation was noted in detection rate, with cases in the Midwest estimated to be infectious for 10 years prior to detection compared to 5 years for most other regions. Posterior predictions for the model estimated that elimination of leprosy as a public health risk would require, on average, 44–45 years in the three regions with the highest prevalence. The model is easily adaptable to other settings, and can be studied to determine the efficacy of improved case finding on leprosy control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To identify risk factors associated with the duration of hot flashes and the time of peak hot flash severity in mid-life women. Methods: A cohort of 647 women reporting hot flashes were followed for 1–7 years, with survey data and hormone measurements. Survival analysis determined the association of risk factors with the duration of hot flashes. Linear regression determined the association of risk factors with the time of peak severity. Final models were determined through stepwise model selection. Results: Average hot flash duration was 2.5 years (range: 1–33), with peak severity on average at 2.96 years (range: 1–20). Duration of hot flashes was associated with race, education, menopause status, smoking history, BMI, alcohol consumption, leisure activity levels, and levels of estradiol and progesterone. In the final model, only race, alcohol consumption, leisure activity, and menopause were retained. White women had significantly shorter hot flash durations than non-white women. Women consuming at least 12 alcoholic drinks in the previous year had a significantly shorter duration of hot flashes with a smaller effect of hot flash duration on increasing in time to peak severity compared to those who consumed less than 12 alcoholic drinks in that year. Higher serum progesterone levels were associated with later peak severity if the duration of the hot flashes was less than 2 years and an earlier peak severity otherwise. Conclusions: These results suggest that some behaviors (such as moderate alcohol consumption) are associated with shorter durations of hot flashes, and that progesterone was associated with the dynamics of hot flash severity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hansen’s disease (leprosy) elimination has proven difficult in several countries, including Brazil, and there is a need for a mathematical model that can predict control program efficacy. This study applied the Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm to fit 6 different proposed models to each of the 5 regions of Brazil, then fitted hierarchical models based on the best-fit regional models to the entire country. The best model proposed for most regions was a simple model. Posterior checks found that the model results were more similar to the observed incidence after fitting than before, and that parameters varied slightly by region. Current control programs were predicted to require additional measures to eliminate Hansen’s Disease as a public health problem in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enteric viruses are often detected in water used for crop irrigation. One concern is foodborne viral disease via the consumption of fresh produce irrigated with virus-contaminated water. Although the food industry routinely uses chemical sanitizers to disinfect post-harvest fresh produce, it remains unknown how sanitizer and fresh produce properties affect the risk of viral illness through fresh produce consumption. A quantitative microbial risk assessment model was conducted to estimate (i) the health risks associated with consumption of rotavirus (RV)-contaminated fresh produce with different surface properties (endive and kale) and (ii) how risks changed when using peracetic acid (PAA) or a surfactant-based sanitizer. The modeling results showed that the annual disease burden depended on the combination of sanitizer and vegetable type when vegetables were irrigated with RV-contaminated water. Global sensitivity analyses revealed that the most influential factors in the disease burden were RV concentration in irrigation water and postharvest disinfection efficacy. A postharvest disinfection efficacy of higher than 99% (2-log 10 ) was needed to decrease the disease burden below the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold, even in scenarios with low RV concentrations in irrigation water (i.e., river water). All scenarios tested here with at least 99.9% (3-log 10 ) disinfection efficacy had a disease burden lower than the WHO threshold, except for the endive treated with PAA. The disinfection efficacy for the endive treated with PAA was only about 80%, leading to a disease burden 100 times higher than the WHO threshold. These findings should be considered and incorporated into future models for estimating foodborne viral illness risks., (© 2019 Society for Risk Analysis.)

Most breast cancer deaths occur in women with recurrent, estrogen receptor (ER)-α(+), metastatic tumors. There is a critical need for therapeutic approaches that include novel, targetable mechanism-based strategies by which ERα (+) tumors can be resensitized to endocrine therapies. The objective of this study was to validate a group of nuclear transport genes as potential biomarkers to predict the risk of endocrine therapy failure and to evaluate the inhibition of XPO1, one of these genes as a novel means to enhance the effectiveness of endocrine therapies. Using advanced statistical methods, we found that expression levels of several of nuclear transport genes including XPO1 were associated with poor survival and predicted recurrence of tamoxifen-treated breast tumors in human breast cancer gene expression data sets. In mechanistic studies we showed that the expression of XPO1 determined the cellular localization of the key signaling proteins and the response to tamoxifen. We demonstrated that combined targeting of XPO1 and ERα in several tamoxifen-resistant cell lines and tumor xenografts with the XPO1 inhibitor, Selinexor, and tamoxifen restored tamoxifen sensitivity and prevented recurrence in vivo. The nuclear transport pathways have not previously been implicated in the development of endocrine resistance, and given the need for better strategies for selecting patients to receive endocrine modulatory reagents and improving therapy response of relapsed ERα(+) tumors, our findings show great promise for uncovering the role these pathways play in reducing cancer recurrences.