Kerri Beckmann, Benjamin Challacombe, Sharon Clovis, Oussama Elhage, Christian Brown, Prokar Dasgupta, Aida Santaolalla, Rick Popert, Preeti Sandhu, Paul Cathcart, Mieke Van Hemelrijck, Sohail Singh, Grace Zisengwe, Kamal Dewan, Jonah Rusere, Singh, Sohail, Sandhu, Preeti, Beckmann, Kerri, Santaolalla, Aida, Dewan, Kamal, Clovis, Sharon, Rusere, Jonah, Zisengwe, Grace, Challacombe, Benjamin, Brown, Christian, Cathcart, Paul, Popert, Rick, Dasgupta, Prokar, Van Hemelrijck, Mieke, and Elhage, Oussama
To determine the risk of disease progression and conversion to active treatment following a negative biopsy while on active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer (PCa).Men on an AS programme at a single tertiary hospital (London, UK) between 2003 and 2018 with confirmed low-intermediate-risk PCa, Gleason Grade Group3, clinical stageT3 and a diagnostic prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level of20 ng/mL. This cohort included men diagnosed by transrectal ultrasonography guided (12-14 cores) or transperineal (median 32 cores) biopsy. Multivariate Cox hazards regression analysis was undertaken to determine (i) risk of upgrading, (ii) clinical or radiological suspicion of disease progression, and (iii) transitioning to active treatment. Suspicion of disease progression was defined as any biopsy upgrading,30% positive cores, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) Likert score3/T3 or PSA level of20 ng/mL. Conversion to treatment included radical or hormonal treatment.Among the 460 eligible patients, 23% had negative follow-up biopsy findings. The median follow-up was 62 months, with one to two repeat biopsies and two MRIs per patient during that period. Negative biopsy findings at first repeat biopsy were associated with decreased risk of converting to active treatment (hazard ration [HR] 0.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.09-0.37; P 0.001), suspicion of disease progression (HR 0.56, 95% CI: 0.34-0.94; P = 0.029), and upgrading (HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.23-0.99; P = 0.047). Data are limited by fewer men with multiple follow-up biopsies.A negative biopsy finding at the first scheduled follow-up biopsy among men on AS for PCa was strongly associated with decreased risk of subsequent upgrading, clinical or radiological suspicion of disease progression, and conversion to active treatment. A less intense surveillance protocol should be considered for this cohort of patients.