Ramou Njie, Robert D. Goldin, Umberto D'Alessandro, A. Jeng-Barry, Christian Bottomley, Makie Taal, Sophie E. Moore, Abdoulie Jatta, Mark Thursz, Maimuna Mendy, Hilton Whittle, Ignatius Baldeh, Rita Wegmüller, Maud Lemoine, Gibril Ndow, Yusuke Shimakawa, Harr Freeya Njai, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust- BRC Funding, Commission of the European Communities, Imperial College Trust, Medical Research Council (MRC), Gilead Sciences Inc, Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia (MRC), Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health [London], London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes - Emerging Diseases Epidemiology, Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents (PACRI), Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM), Department of Hepatology [London], Imperial College London-St Mary's Hospital [London], Gambia Hepatitis Intervention Study, Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia (MRC)-International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), MRC Keneba [West Kiang, The Gambia], Ministry of Health and Social Welfare [Banjul, The Gambia] (MOHSW), Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, Centre International de Recherche contre le Cancer - International Agency for Research on Cancer (CIRC - IARC), Organisation Mondiale de la Santé / World Health Organization Office (OMS / WHO), The Gambia government, MRC and European Commission's Seventh Framework Program (grant 265 994) supported the study., We thank Saydiba Tamba, Yaya Minteh and Momodou-Lamin Jobarteh for fieldwork, Bai-Lamin Dondeh, Safayet Hossin and Tony Fulford for data management, Debbie Garside for study coordination and Pierre Hainaut and Stephanie Villar for the p53R249S mutation study. We also thank Lisa R Bulkow and Brian J McMahon for sharing the Alaskan data, European Project: 265994,EC:FP7:HEALTH,FP7-AFRICA-2010,PROLIFICA(2011), and Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM)-Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM)
International audience; Background: The natural history of chronic HBV infection in sub-Saharan Africa is unknown. Data are required to inform WHO guidelines that are currently based on studies in Europe and Asia.Methods: Between 1974 and 2008, serosurveys were repeated in two Gambian villages, and an open cohort of treatment-naive chronic HBV carriers was recruited. Participants were followed to estimate the rates of hepatitis B e (HBeAg) and surface antigen (HBsAg) clearance and incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In 2012-2013, a comprehensive liver assessment was conducted to estimate the prevalence of severe liver disease.Results: 405 chronic carriers (95% genotype E), recruited at a median age of 10.8 years, were followed for a median length of 28.4 years. Annually, 7.4% (95% CI 6.3% to 8.8%) cleared HBeAg and 1.0% (0.8% to 1.2%) cleared HBsAg. The incidence of HCC was 55.5/100 000 carrier-years (95% CI 24.9 to 123.5). In the 2012-2013 survey (n=301), 5.5% (95% CI 3.4% to 9.0%) had significant liver fibrosis. HBV genotype A (versus E), chronic aflatoxin B1 exposure and an HBsAg-positive mother, a proxy for mother-to-infant transmission, were risk factors for liver fibrosis. A small proportion (16.0%) of chronic carriers were infected via mother-to-infant transmission; however, this population represented a large proportion (63.0%) of the cases requiring antiviral therapy.Conclusions: The incidence of HCC among chronic HBV carriers in West Africa was higher than that in Europe but lower than rates in East Asia. High risk of severe liver disease among the few who are infected by their mothers underlines the importance of interrupting perinatal transmission in sub-Saharan Africa.