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13. Toward New Single-Station Sigma Models

Author

Rodriguez-Marek, Adrian, Cotton, Fabrice, Abrahamson, N., Akkar, Sinan, Al-Atik, Linda, Anderson, John, Bonilla, Luis Fabian, Bommer, Julian J., Bungum, Hilmar, Douglas, John, Drouet, Stéphane, Edwards, Benjamin, Faeh, Donat, Montalva, G. A., Dawood, H., Renault, Philippe, Scherbaum, Frank, Strasser, Fleur, Virginia Tech [Blacksburg], Institut des Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-PRES Université de Grenoble-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR219-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF), Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Middle East Technical University [Ankara] (METU), Department of Mathematics [Berkeley], University of California [Berkeley], University of California-University of California, University of Nevada [Reno], Laboratoire des Ponts et Chaussées, Département Géotechnique, Eau et Risques, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Imperial College London], Imperial College London, International Centre for Geohazards, NORSAR, Norwegian Seismic Array (NORSAR), Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM), Risques, Laboratoire de Géophysique Interne et Tectonophysique (LGIT), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Laboratoire Central des Ponts et Chaussées (LCPC)-Institut des Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-PRES Université de Grenoble-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR219-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-PRES Université de Grenoble-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR219-Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-PRES Université de Grenoble-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR219-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-PRES Université de Grenoble-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR219-Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR), Institute of Geophysics [ETH Zürich], Department of Earth Sciences [ETH Zürich] (D-ERDW), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich)-Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Washington State University (WSU), Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Concepción [Chile], SwissNuclear, PEGASOS Refinement Project, Institute Geowissenschaften, Universität Potsdam, Council for Geoscience, Seismology unit, Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR219-PRES Université de Grenoble-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Risques (Risques), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Laboratoire Central des Ponts et Chaussées (LCPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Laboratoire Central des Ponts et Chaussées (LCPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Earth Sciences [Swiss Federal Institute of Technology - ETH Zürich] (D-ERDW), and Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich)- Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich)

Subjects
[SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph]
Abstract

Single-station sigma values for more than 600 stations have been computed using the same method for all records and datasets from different tectonic regions (California, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey, Mexico, Switzerland and France). This work has been driven by the need to develop better estimates of standard deviation for non-ergodic probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Switzerland (PEGASOS Refinement Project), and for new ground motion models being developed for eastern North America (NGA-east) and western North America (NGA-west2). The results show that the average single-station standard deviations are lower than the ergodic values of standard deviation. Moreover, the single-station withinevent standard deviations appear to have little variability across different tectonic regions. However, there is significant variability between stations and, in some instances, values of single-station standard deviation are higher than their ergodic counterpart. This variability seems to be (on the first order) controlled by path effects, and it can be modelled by probability distribution functions. Our results also show that the Vs30 dependency is weak, while a reduction of the withinevent standard deviation is apparent with increasing distance (and magnitude). We finally amalgamate all within-event residuals from the different tectonic regions in order to propose and test several within-event single-station sigma models (constant, distance-dependent, distance and magnitude-dependent).

Published
2011

14. A multi-disciplinary approach to assess the impact of global climate change on infrastructure in cold regions

Author

Toumi, Ralf, Strasser, Fleur, Rutter, Paul, Reifen, Catherine, Clarke, Jim, Fenton, Clark, Gens Solé, Antonio|||0000-0001-7588-7054, Jardine, Richard, Martin, Chris, Nethercot, David, Satoshi, Nishimura, Olivella Pastallé, Sebastià|||0000-0003-3976-4027, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria del Terreny, Cartogràfica i Geofísica, and Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. MSR - Mecànica del Sòls i de les Roques

Subjects
GCM modeling, Siberia, Regions àrtiques -- Condicions ambientals, thermal modeling, climate change, Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Enginyeria civil::Geologia [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Climatic changes--Environmental aspects--Cold regions, engineering adaptation, Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], engineering geology
Abstract

Imperial College London is researching with BP some potential impacts of future climate change. BP has a significant number of facilities in cold high-latitude regions, where global climate models predict significant rises in air and ground surface temperature. This could impact on the state and extent of permafrost, potentially posing risks to facilities, infrastructure, and operations (ACIA 2005). The paper reviews the research, focusing on an exemplar study region in eastern Siberia. The key elements included: (1) Developing an approach to provide a best estimate of future climate change. (2) An engineering geological appraisal of the ground conditions in the study region. (3) Performing a parametric study of geothermal conditions in the study region using finite element thermal analyses. (4) Developing a Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical modeling approach for assessment of climate change impact on specific engineering facilities. (5) Developing a methodology for incorporating potential climate change considerations into engineering decision-making and design.

Published
2008

15. A SSHAC Level 3 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for a New-Build Nuclear Site in South Africa.

Author

Bommer, Julian J., Coppersmith, Kevin J., Coppersmith, Ryan T., Hanson, Kathryn L., Mangongolo, Azangi, Neveling, Johann, Rathje, Ellen M., Rodriguez-Marek, Adrian, Scherbaum, Frank, Shelembe, Refilwe, Stafford, Peter J., and Strasser, Fleur O.

Subjects
PALEOSEISMOLOGY, EPISTEMIC uncertainty, MODELS & modelmaking, EARTHQUAKES, VELOCITY
Abstract

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been conducted for a potential nuclear power plant site on the coast of South Africa, a country of low-to-moderate seismicity. The hazard study was conducted as a SSHAC Level 3 process, the first application of this approach outside North America. Extensive geological investigations identified five fault sources with a non-zero probability of being seismogenic. Five area sources were defined for distributed seismicity, the least active being the host zone for which the low recurrence rates for earthquakes were substantiated through investigations of historical seismicity. Empirical ground-motion prediction equations were adjusted to a horizon within the bedrock at the site using kappa values inferred from weak-motion analyses. These adjusted models were then scaled to create new equations capturing the range of epistemic uncertainty in this region with no strong motion recordings. Surface motions were obtained by convolving the bedrock motions with site amplification functions calculated using measured shear-wave velocity profiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2015
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16. A Stochastic Earthquake Ground-Motion Prediction Model for the United Kingdom.

Author

Rietbrock, Andreas, Strasser, Fleur, and Edwards, Benjamin

Subjects
EARTHQUAKE hazard analysis, STOCHASTIC analysis, SEISMIC waves, PREDICTION models, EARTHQUAKE zones, EXTRAPOLATION
Abstract

Low-seismicity regions such as the United Kingdom (UK) pose a chal-lenge for seismic hazard analysis in view of the limited amount of locally recorded data available. In particular, ground-motion prediction is faced with the problem that most of the instrumental observations available have been recorded at large distances from small earthquakes. Direct extrapolation of the results of regression on these data to the range of magnitudes and distances relevant for the seismic hazard analysis of engineered structures generally leads to unsatisfactory predictions. The present study presents a new ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for the UK in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration (PSA), based on the results of numeri-cal simulations using a stochastic point-source model calibrated with parameters derived from local weak-motion data. The predictions from this model are compared with those of previous GMPEs based on UK data, other GMPEs derived for stable continental regions (SCRs), as well as recent GMPEs developed for the wider European area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2013
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17. Review: Strong Ground Motions--Have We Seen the Worst?

Author

Strasser, Fleur O. and Bommer, Julian J.

Subjects
EARTH movements, SEISMOLOGY, STOCHASTIC processes, SEDIMENTATION & deposition, GEOPHYSICS
Abstract

Over the history of instrumental strong-motion recording, the largest amplitudes of ground motions recorded to date have had a significant impact on the perception of the largest amplitudes of ground motion considered physically realizable. However, the length of the instrumental recording history is comparatively short, and instrumental recording networks are relatively sparse, which raises the issue of whether the full range of ground motions has been captured in the current global holdings of strong-motion data. Because the answer to this question is quite obviously negative, a more difficult question then arises: How much greater than the largest currently available observation could future ground motions be? The present article explores this issue, drawing on empirical observations, results from numerical simulations, and a statistical exercise involving the sampling of spatially correlated stochastic ground-motion fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2009
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18. Reply to "Comment on 'Review: Strong Ground Motions--Have We Seen the Worst?' by Fleur O. Strasser and Julian J. Bommer" by Heriberta Castaños and Cinna Lomnitz.

Author

Strasser, Fleur O. and Bommer, Julian J.

Subjects
EARTH movements, MOTION, PROBABILITY theory, EARTHQUAKE hazard analysis, SEISMOMETERS
Abstract

The article counters the comments of Heriberta Castaños and Cinna Lomnitz on the authors' review of the subject about ground motions. It is believed that Castaños and Lomnitz are focused on criticizing standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in general. Analyzed is the comparison of motions recorded at one accelograph station and flipping a coin. Meanwhile, Castaños and Lomnitz are deemed correct that the maximum attainable levels of motion is being limited by finite strength of near-surface materials.

Published
2010
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19. Ground-motion prediction for subduction-zone earthquakes : insights from South and Central American data

Author

Arango-Gaviria, Maria Cristina and Strasser, Fleur

Subjects
550
Abstract

Models to predict the ground motion for earthquakes that occur in subduction zones are of great importance for earthquake risk reduction and mitigation in many parts of the world where there is a significant hazard from large earthquakes along the subduction interface and from earthquakes within the subducting slab. Most existing ground-motion predictive equations for subduction-zone events are primarily based on strong-motion recordings from Japan, Cascadia, Mexico, Alaska and New Zealand. In contrast, few records from South and Central America have been included in global predictive equations to date, although a major proportion of the seismicity of these regions is related to subduction-zone processes. The development of a strong-motion database from subduction-type events in South and Central America is therefore an important and essential step for ground-motion prediction in these regions as well as other subduction zones in the world. In this project two databases of strong-motion records from subduction-zone events along the Peruvian-Chilean and the Central American subduction zones have been developed. The Central American database compiled during this study consists of 554 triaxial ground-motion recordings from both interface and intraslab-type events of magnitudes between 5.0≤MW≤7.7. The database compiled for South America consists of 98 triaxial ground-motion recordings from 15 subduction-type events of magnitudes 6.3≤MW≤8.4, recorded at 55 different sites in Peru and Chile, between 1966 and 2007. These datasets have then been used to investigate the extent to which global and regional models for subduction regimes could be applied for the prediction of ground motions from the subduction events in these regions, following a maximum-likelihood approach. Regional differences in the ground-motion amplitudes amongst the South and Central America subduction zones are examined and preliminary adjustments to existing equations are made in order to resolve the differences between observed ground motions and predictions from these equations. This has led to suggestions for the prediction of ground motions from subductionzone earthquakes in the South and Central American regions.

Published
2010
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